politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Curtice on the exit poll
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Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/5949800329273794580 -
Not embarrassing myself just yet, though no doubt I'll get there given a little more time.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are just embarrassing yourself now.Polruan said:
You do understand that political parties represent a range of views rather than unanimity on all issues, right? If the same person is screaming about single-sex clubs, and campaigning for votes in single-sex clubs, well, they're clearly a bit of a moron (and let's face it, Labour isn't the first or last political party to accept a quota of morons). On the other hand, if different people in a party value equality and religious freedom, and come to different answers about how you deal with the collision of those two principles, that doesn't seem particularly scandalous. I kind of assumed that most grown ups were used to dealing with incompatible priorities and trying to make sense of the boundary where they interfere with one another. And let's face it, when you add the priority of getting elected, it gets quite tricky...
Face it, Labour held a rally where they left their principles at the door to accommodate a group of people who have a very backward and incompatible view of how men and women are not to be treated equally.
You are the one who brought up, well its a bit like a club, and would be rude to get involved in their affairs. It was official Labour policy to do so. It was official Labour policy to try and outlaw exactly the kind of situation where..
"affect mixed-sex clubs where women have lower membership status than men. "
I would see it as essentially a club because (as a Christian) I recognise that there's a pretty strong sociological similarity between the conduct of active religious communities and other special interest groups. So if you tolerate sexism in a religious community it could be seen as hypocritical to try and outlaw it in a non-religious grouping. So I wouldn't pursue a policy that sought to tolerate sexism in religious groupings but not elsewhere. On the other hand, there are plenty of respectable views that do make a distinction between the conduct of a religion and the conduct of a social activity. That's common across the politicial spectrum and certainly isn't just a loony left way of looking at the world (for a counterpoint on the right you probably wouldn't need to look much further than Conservative Friends of Israel). On this particular point I don't agree with the distinction that Labour party policy appears to have made, but it doesn't strike me as absurd.0 -
If the nature of the newspaper headlines from each sides supporters are an indication of getting rattled, both sides have been thoroughly rattled for the entire campaign.surbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/5949800329273794580 -
Although DC4PM has come in to Evens, it must still be a good value bet.0
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It's all gone very quiet here as regards the all night bun fight at the Finborough Arms, Earls Court on GE night. Perhaps OGH etc need to give this a couple of further mentions, especially as admission is by ticket only. Which of the PB.com bigwigs are expecting to attend?0
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The 1923 general election led to:Artist said:
I think there have been some signs in the last week, including Miliband comments on the Question Time show that Labour could refuse to go into power with the SNP in favour of a second election.Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: So in tomorrow's Times, we speak to a range of Labour MPs about the prospect of only being able to get EM into No10 with SNP MPs...
@SamCoatesTimes: We find some Labour folk - even frontbenchers - harbour doubts about the legitimacy of coming 2nd in seats & votes but going into No10
Con 258 seats
Lab 191
Lib 158
It led to a Labour minority government with tacit Liberal support, no more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
Why don't they ask constitutional experts like Peter Hennessy or Vernon Bogdanor instead of chickening out of forming government?! Unless they've had a sudden conversion to electoral reform, I'd expect them to respect the result of the FPTP system. They always have done when it suited them.0 -
Very strangely, #fundilymundily is creating about four times the traffic of #leadersdebate but the debate trend is still number 1 in the UK and fundily is not shown, even drilling down to Glasgow or Edinburgh.
Bizarre.0 -
Given the apparent closeness of the polls, will this encourage the "stay at homes" to make a trip to the polling station this time?
And if so, who will benefit?0 -
That poll was 3 days old, so not as up to date as the last few YouGovsjahodges said:"A trend develops!"
Not really. There was a Sun on Sunday poll last night putting Labour 1% ahead.0 -
'Senior' party figure is a favourite term of the media because it is so fungible. Old party grandees, serial rebels with long records, advisers and officials close now or in the past to someone who knew a bloke who once met a party leader. The supposed quote from a frontbencher seems more questionable, as someone on the front bench would surely keep their trap shut even if others might not.Dadge said:
What are the odds that the Times have just made this up? Which senior Labour MPs would say these things to the Times?Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/5949800329273794580 -
Not because of the discussions, no. My point was a different one - that NONE of the main party themes in the past month have cut through to the point that they come up in discussions with undecided voters. Just a sobering point for all of us.Dair said:
So you spoke to 60 people. 60 people who didn't tell your canvassers to bugger off. And you think you have an idea of how the election will go?NickPalmer said:I've spent 5 hours on the phone today, churning through the remaining people who are (a) on the phone and (b) canvassed as even slightly undecided. What really struck me is that conversations were just like the ones the previous month. Nobody mentioned benefits, or Scotland, or Ed's stone, or Cameron's football team(s) - it nearly always came down to the NHS, cuts and the economy. Most of the campaign seemed to have entirely passed them by.
By definition, these tend to be people less interested in politics, but some were genuinely keen to talk the issues through, sometimes for the first time as they'd only been bemusedly reading rival leaflets. By the end of the session I was pretty knackered, but quite apart from any votes won it felt worthwhile.
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So are labour,delia smith and steve coogan brought in to help save our NHS.surbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/594980032927379458
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Are any PBlabbers planning to buy the new mini EdStones that are on sale? I hear you can get 4'3" ones and 2'1" ones, all signed by the new minister for global paradigms. Surely too good an offer to miss?0
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MacDonald was 67 seats behind in 1924, with just 31% of the seats in Parliament, and he formed a government.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/594980032927379458
He had to vote against the Tories first of course, but Murphy promised tonight that's exactly what they'd do.
Has Labour ever not voted against a Tory Queen's Speech?0 -
Stories like this should worry SNP supporterssurbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/594980032927379458
But probably won't.0 -
fair enough. Mind you this poll seems to have been rather overlooked..... for some reason the Sun didn't emblazon it.kle4 said:
Rest assured I was only joking. YouGov's been moving only with MOE for weeks now it seems, no result one way or another could be called a trend with it at this point.jahodges said:"A trend develops!"
Not really. There was a Sun on Sunday poll last night putting Labour 1% ahead.
Although I'm not sure you gov is right in its figures i do wonder if its right in the sense that little is changing and us saddos who analyse every dot and comma who are obsessed with game changers and weak stabbings in the back with rubber knives and ed stones and claret and blue confusion and hell yeah pumped up etc are simply out of touch with how the average voter spends their leisure time.
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Was speaking to a friend yesterday who had been canvassing in a key marginal. Was shocked when he said they only had four people plus the candidate canvassing across the whole constituency. Everyone else was leafleting or doing posters. apparently the low number of canvassers was because they didn't want anyone going off message. Is this the way campaigns are going now ?NickPalmer said:I've spent 5 hours on the phone today, churning through the remaining people who are (a) on the phone and (b) canvassed as even slightly undecided. What really struck me is that conversations were just like the ones the previous month. Nobody mentioned benefits, or Scotland, or Ed's stone, or Cameron's football team(s) - it nearly always came down to the NHS, cuts and the economy. Most of the campaign seemed to have entirely passed them by.
By definition, these tend to be people less interested in politics, but some were genuinely keen to talk the issues through, sometimes for the first time as they'd only been bemusedly reading rival leaflets. By the end of the session I was pretty knackered, but quite apart from any votes won it felt worthwhile.0 -
Minority groups like Christians and Muslims have no place deciding what is acceptable in society.Polruan said:Not embarrassing myself just yet, though no doubt I'll get there given a little more time.
I would see it as essentially a club because (as a Christian) I recognise that there's a pretty strong sociological similarity between the conduct of active religious communities and other special interest groups. So if you tolerate sexism in a religious community it could be seen as hypocritical to try and outlaw it in a non-religious grouping. So I wouldn't pursue a policy that sought to tolerate sexism in religious groupings but not elsewhere. On the other hand, there are plenty of respectable views that do make a distinction between the conduct of a religion and the conduct of a social activity. That's common across the politicial spectrum and certainly isn't just a loony left way of looking at the world (for a counterpoint on the right you probably wouldn't need to look much further than Conservative Friends of Israel). On this particular point I don't agree with the distinction that Labour party policy appears to have made, but it doesn't strike me as absurd.
Segregating people based on gender is completely unacceptable whether it is by a Christian cult or a Muslim cult or any other religious fundamental fantasy. It is always wrong.0 -
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.0 -
Looks like someone is getting rattled and it's not the conservatives. The article only reflects what I have been saying on this forum for ages. Labour have lost Scotland for a generation and a wrong move by them on this issue will see them lost in England. Dangerous times for laboursurbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/5949800329273794580 -
Would the Ortodox Jews segregate themselves like this at a public meeting, rather than a religious service? Genuine question, I don't know the answer.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
I think that much of the criticism relates not as much to the behaviour itself, but the hypocrisy of those on the left who shout equality and wimmin's rights from the rooftops, yet also appear to support segregated meetings within certain 'communities'. If they are genuinely interested in wimmin's rights, they should be encouraging those of certain religious persuasions to be more open and inclusive in the way they treat their women - the double standards so as not to offend the minority is what leads to Rotherham and Rochdale.0 -
http://t.co/iR2Uu5lGUvTheScreamingEagles said:
That poll was 3 days old, so not as up to date as the last few YouGovsjahodges said:"A trend develops!"
Not really. There was a Sun on Sunday poll last night putting Labour 1% ahead.0 -
Anyone seen a pic of the BBC swingometer? I've heard that it's going to be a four way one based off the Big Ben.0
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No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?-1 -
I understand that. I just don't think 60 people who your canvassers identify as possibles are going to give you a good idea of what issues are in play. Just the opposite.NickPalmer said:
Not because of the discussions, no. My point was a different one - that NONE of the main party themes in the past month have cut through to the point that they come up in discussions with undecided voters. Just a sobering point for all of us.Dair said:
So you spoke to 60 people. 60 people who didn't tell your canvassers to bugger off. And you think you have an idea of how the election will go?NickPalmer said:I've spent 5 hours on the phone today, churning through the remaining people who are (a) on the phone and (b) canvassed as even slightly undecided. What really struck me is that conversations were just like the ones the previous month. Nobody mentioned benefits, or Scotland, or Ed's stone, or Cameron's football team(s) - it nearly always came down to the NHS, cuts and the economy. Most of the campaign seemed to have entirely passed them by.
By definition, these tend to be people less interested in politics, but some were genuinely keen to talk the issues through, sometimes for the first time as they'd only been bemusedly reading rival leaflets. By the end of the session I was pretty knackered, but quite apart from any votes won it felt worthwhile.
You have 5 hours and speak to 60 people. If you tell me you do that randomly, I'll call you a liar.0 -
Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?0
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I respect your beliefs, which are clearly fervent and sincere despite their lack of engagement with the role of the Abrahamic religions in shaping our law and operative definitions of right and wrong, but suspect that the majority of the country who declare some kind of religious affiliation may well disagree. That said, you're probably only a generation (at most two) from being in the majority.Dair said:
Minority groups like Christians and Muslims have no place deciding what is acceptable in society.Polruan said:Not embarrassing myself just yet, though no doubt I'll get there given a little more time.
I would see it as essentially a club because (as a Christian) I recognise that there's a pretty strong sociological similarity between the conduct of active religious communities and other special interest groups. So if you tolerate sexism in a religious community it could be seen as hypocritical to try and outlaw it in a non-religious grouping. So I wouldn't pursue a policy that sought to tolerate sexism in religious groupings but not elsewhere. On the other hand, there are plenty of respectable views that do make a distinction between the conduct of a religion and the conduct of a social activity. That's common across the politicial spectrum and certainly isn't just a loony left way of looking at the world (for a counterpoint on the right you probably wouldn't need to look much further than Conservative Friends of Israel). On this particular point I don't agree with the distinction that Labour party policy appears to have made, but it doesn't strike me as absurd.
Segregating people based on gender is completely unacceptable whether it is by a Christian cult or a Muslim cult or any other religious fundamental fantasy. It is always wrong.0 -
The Times sells about 15000 copies in Scotlandbigjohnowls said:
Stories like this should worry SNP supporterssurbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/594980032927379458
But probably won't.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594825574788509696TheScreamingEagles said:
That poll was 3 days old, so not as up to date as the last few YouGovsjahodges said:"A trend develops!"
Not really. There was a Sun on Sunday poll last night putting Labour 1% ahead.0 -
And were they full of praise for your party's magnificent stewardship last time round and full of apologies for giving you your P45 5 years ago?NickPalmer said:I've spent 5 hours on the phone today, churning through the remaining people who are (a) on the phone and (b) canvassed as even slightly undecided. What really struck me is that conversations were just like the ones the previous month. Nobody mentioned benefits, or Scotland, or Ed's stone, or Cameron's football team(s) - it nearly always came down to the NHS, cuts and the economy. Most of the campaign seemed to have entirely passed them by.
By definition, these tend to be people less interested in politics, but some were genuinely keen to talk the issues through, sometimes for the first time as they'd only been bemusedly reading rival leaflets. By the end of the session I was pretty knackered, but quite apart from any votes won it felt worthwhile.0 -
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
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Have you not been to a PB meeting before.foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.
Ones in Yorkshire and Manchester must have applied segregation by sex as not a single woman was evident in either.
Dirty Dicks was much more Liberal0 -
ComGovStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
YouRes
INS
TCM
Ipsos PANEL
Moribase
Lord Surcroft
Ashvation
Popinium
Opulus
(sorry!)
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If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements0 -
Are you saying women prefer Dirty Dicks?bigjohnowls said:
Have you not been to a PB meeting before.foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.
Ones in Yorkshire and Manchester must have applied segregation by sex as not a single woman was evident in either.
Dirty Dicks was much more Liberal0 -
Pretty sure that should be Ipsos-PANELSunil_Prasannan said:
ComGovStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
YouRes
INS
TCM
Ipsos PANEL
Moribase
Lord Surcroft
Ashvation
Popinium
Opulus
(sorry!)0 -
So the SNP are allies of Labour? The only allies Labour have are people who want to break up the UK.NickPalmer said:
Not really. It's because the Tories have no plausible allies. The LibDems who they're busy decapitating? The SNP who they're portraying as thieves and who are bound by party policy not to support them? Unless one thinks they could polevault to a majority themselves, it's hard to see any way that Cameron can stay in office.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because the electoral system favours Labour over the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
Why is EICIPM odds on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Because Ed is Crap.bigjohnowls said:http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Lab within 7 seats of most seats or 4 more gains from Con
Current price 6.0
Why?
I believe it has been mentioned/factored in.
I might do another thread on electoral reform to educate/remind PBers.0 -
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594824019473477632TheScreamingEagles said:
That poll was 3 days old, so not as up to date as the last few YouGovsjahodges said:"A trend develops!"
Not really. There was a Sun on Sunday poll last night putting Labour 1% ahead.
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I'd expect to see a Panelbase and TNS poll this week as well, and possibly an Opinium too.Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
Still vote Eck get Dave looks frightening to someDair said:
The Times sells about 15000 copies in Scotlandbigjohnowls said:
Stories like this should worry SNP supporterssurbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/594980032927379458
But probably won't.
Still be able to watch Top Gear repeats0 -
But women would have been made very welcome if they attended. Male politics aficianados may well be Aspergersish, but not chauvinistic.bigjohnowls said:
Have you not been to a PB meeting before.foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.
Ones in Yorkshire and Manchester must have applied segregation by sex as not a single woman was evident in either.
Dirty Dicks was much more Liberal0 -
how incredibly bizarre that the sun of all papers should publish a poll favourable to labour on a sunday that is older than the ones they published sat fri and thur!TheScreamingEagles said:
That poll was 3 days old, so not as up to date as the last few YouGovsjahodges said:"A trend develops!"
Not really. There was a Sun on Sunday poll last night putting Labour 1% ahead.0 -
I'm already in the majority IN MY COUNTRY.Polruan said:
I respect your beliefs, which are clearly fervent and sincere despite their lack of engagement with the role of the Abrahamic religions in shaping our law and operative definitions of right and wrong, but suspect that the majority of the country who declare some kind of religious affiliation may well disagree. That said, you're probably only a generation (at most two) from being in the majority.Dair said:
Minority groups like Christians and Muslims have no place deciding what is acceptable in society.Polruan said:Not embarrassing myself just yet, though no doubt I'll get there given a little more time.
I would see it as essentially a club because (as a Christian) I recognise that there's a pretty strong sociological similarity between the conduct of active religious communities and other special interest groups. So if you tolerate sexism in a religious community it could be seen as hypocritical to try and outlaw it in a non-religious grouping. So I wouldn't pursue a policy that sought to tolerate sexism in religious groupings but not elsewhere. On the other hand, there are plenty of respectable views that do make a distinction between the conduct of a religion and the conduct of a social activity. That's common across the politicial spectrum and certainly isn't just a loony left way of looking at the world (for a counterpoint on the right you probably wouldn't need to look much further than Conservative Friends of Israel). On this particular point I don't agree with the distinction that Labour party policy appears to have made, but it doesn't strike me as absurd.
Segregating people based on gender is completely unacceptable whether it is by a Christian cult or a Muslim cult or any other religious fundamental fantasy. It is always wrong.
IIRC last Census had Atheist 1 and Agnostic 2 in Scotland (or the other way round). Theists or any denomination are a minority view.
I am also far more informed about Atenism (the pre-cursor to Abrhamic belief) than most people and a good knowledge of all three creeds.0 -
For all your big talk, you are saying:foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in yhat setting.
if Muslims do it = bad, Orthodox Jews do it = OK.0 -
I think the government is doing some kind of poll on Thursday too. Very large sample sizes, but I have my doubts about the methodology.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect to see a Panelbase and TNS poll this week as well, and possibly an Opinium too.Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
The people of the UK voting for the Conservatives.NickPalmer said:
Not really. It's because the Tories have no plausible allies. The LibDems who they're busy decapitating? The SNP who they're portraying as thieves and who are bound by party policy not to support them? Unless one thinks they could polevault to a majority themselves, it's hard to see any way that Cameron can stay in office.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because the electoral system favours Labour over the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
Why is EICIPM odds on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Because Ed is Crap.bigjohnowls said:http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Lab within 7 seats of most seats or 4 more gains from Con
Current price 6.0
Why?
I believe it has been mentioned/factored in.
I might do another thread on electoral reform to educate/remind PBers.
Or have YOU already called the election?0 -
I think BMG said they would do another one.Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
0 -
All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.0
-
Yeah it's not the gold standardStereotomy said:
I think the government is doing some kind of poll on Thursday too. Very large sample sizes, but I have my doubts about the methodology.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect to see a Panelbase and TNS poll this week as well, and possibly an Opinium too.Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
Has there been any polling in Hampstead that might suggest the LD vote would hold up despite lack of any incumbency effect, or even just no collapse? Nawaz seems like a very interesting candidate, but seemingly has no chance. Perhaps he will get the opportunity to fight a more winnable seat (or Hampstead be more in play should the LDs recover) another time.foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many on the back foot?Blueberry said:
Amazedt?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements
I do hope the LDs get at least something that can cheer them on the night. The big two have longed hoped for the end of their majorities being cut down by a strong third party, and while we will still have the SNP in that position, I think the LDs can still find a place to recover as well. Not quite being destroyed in Scotland (seems unlikely), holding out in the SW (more likely, but not guaranteed), or even winning a seat (possible in perhaps 1 place we are informed), won't erase what will be a terrible night, but might give some small comfort about the future.0 -
I fear you will be disappointed.foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements
0 -
That's interesting. Quite surprising actually. I would have expected that those of some religion would still outnumber the total of atheists and agnostics in all regions of the UK. Still, should ony be a few years til the Tory-SNP axis cements independence then you can go on your irreligious way.Dair said:
I'm already in the majority IN MY COUNTRY.Polruan said:
I respect your beliefs, which are clearly fervent and sincere despite their lack of engagement with the role of the Abrahamic religions in shaping our law and operative definitions of right and wrong, but suspect that the majority of the country who declare some kind of religious affiliation may well disagree. That said, you're probably only a generation (at most two) from being in the majority.Dair said:
Minority groups like Christians and Muslims have no place deciding what is acceptable in society.Polruan said:Not embarrassing myself just yet, though no doubt I'll get there given a little more time.
I would see it as essentially a club because (as a Christian) I recognise that there's a pretty strong sociological similarity between the conduct of active religious communities and other special interest groups. So if you tolerate sexism in a religious community it could be seen as hypocritical to try and outlaw it in a non-religious grouping. So I wouldn't pursue a policy that sought to tolerate sexism in religious groupings but not elsewhere. On the other hand, there are plenty of respectable views that do make a distinction between the conduct of a religion and the conduct of a social activity. That's common across the politicial spectrum and certainly isn't just a loony left way of looking at the world (for a counterpoint on the right you probably wouldn't need to look much further than Conservative Friends of Israel). On this particular point I don't agree with the distinction that Labour party policy appears to have made, but it doesn't strike me as absurd.
Segregating people based on gender is completely unacceptable whether it is by a Christian cult or a Muslim cult or any other religious fundamental fantasy. It is always wrong.
IIRC last Census had Atheist 1 and Agnostic 2 in Scotland (or the other way round). Theists or any denomination are a minority view.0 -
Emphatically no!!! However, it is possible that by now all the support had been identified, and mopping up the undecideds with a visit from the candidate is always worth a shot.PaulM said:
Was speaking to a friend yesterday who had been canvassing in a key marginal. Was shocked when he said they only had four people plus the candidate canvassing across the whole constituency. Everyone else was leafleting or doing posters. apparently the low number of canvassers was because they didn't want anyone going off message. Is this the way campaigns are going now ?NickPalmer said:I've spent 5 hours on the phone today, churning through the remaining people who are (a) on the phone and (b) canvassed as even slightly undecided. What really struck me is that conversations were just like the ones the previous month. Nobody mentioned benefits, or Scotland, or Ed's stone, or Cameron's football team(s) - it nearly always came down to the NHS, cuts and the economy. Most of the campaign seemed to have entirely passed them by.
By definition, these tend to be people less interested in politics, but some were genuinely keen to talk the issues through, sometimes for the first time as they'd only been bemusedly reading rival leaflets. By the end of the session I was pretty knackered, but quite apart from any votes won it felt worthwhile.
Canvassing serves a few purposes. One it is a contact that people appreciate, it rarely results in a change of mind of the voter (though it does happen. Happened to me today. Turned a life long labour voter who was wavering because of the snp), but its primary purpose is to seek out voter intention.
Voter intention is then fed back into the central databases. There reaches a point when labour is best used to distribute literature.
Elections are won by leaflets. Not twitter, billboards or debates. However, shoving a dozen pieces of paper through peoples doors in the four weeks up to an election isnt good enough, you need to be doing it on a regular basis.0 -
No. I oppose it for both, and for backward Christian traditions too.surbiton said:
For all your big talk, you are saying:foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in yhat setting.
if Muslims do it = bad, Orthodox Jews do it = OK.0 -
The people of Hampstead are perfectly entitled to elect whoever they see fit - even a Jihadi !foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements0 -
He has absolutely no chance at all.kle4 said:
Has there been any polling in Hampstead that might suggest the LD vote would hold up despite lack of any incumbency effect, or even just no collapse? Nawaz seems like a very interesting candidate, but seemingly has no chance. Perhaps he will get the opportunity to fight a more winnable seat (or Hampstead be more in play should the LDs recover) another time.foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements
0 -
Are polls allowed to be published on Thursday (election day)?TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
Yeah Dave is a great channel.bigjohnowls said:
Still vote Eck get Dave looks frightening to someDair said:
The Times sells about 15000 copies in Scotlandbigjohnowls said:
Stories like this should worry SNP supporterssurbiton said:
Tories are getting rattled. Their Pravda, The Times, has been brought in.Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/594980032927379458
But probably won't.
Still be able to watch Top Gear repeats0 -
Thanks, for the clarification.foxinsoxuk said:
No. I oppose it for both, and for backward Christian traditions too.surbiton said:
For all your big talk, you are saying:foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in yhat setting.
if Muslims do it = bad, Orthodox Jews do it = OK.0 -
He's so arrogant it is unbelievable.RepublicanTory said:
The people of the UK voting for the Conservatives.NickPalmer said:
Not really. It's because the Tories have no plausible allies. The LibDems who they're busy decapitating? The SNP who they're portraying as thieves and who are bound by party policy not to support them? Unless one thinks they could polevault to a majority themselves, it's hard to see any way that Cameron can stay in office.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because the electoral system favours Labour over the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
Why is EICIPM odds on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Because Ed is Crap.bigjohnowls said:http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Lab within 7 seats of most seats or 4 more gains from Con
Current price 6.0
Why?
I believe it has been mentioned/factored in.
I might do another thread on electoral reform to educate/remind PBers.
Or have YOU already called the election?
Further, what does he think he can do to improve the lot of the people of Broxtowe? He prefers Scandinavia to the UK, by his own postings he has no idea how the pension system works, and at one point criticized the DVLA for selling the details of his Great Aunt, when he was part of the government that voted to enable that to happen.
Man is an egotistical idiot, God help the people of Broxtowe.0 -
I'm struggling to pin the logic down, but I think the way it goes is that all parties believe in equality, but it's not hypocritical when Tories engage with orthodox Jewish communities or conduct business in single-sex private members clubs because reasons, but it is when Labour engage with relatively fundamentalist muslims because a shrill annoying Labour woman talks about equality quite a lot. Something like that.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
0 -
YesSunil_Prasannan said:
Are polls allowed to be published on Thursday (election day)?TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
I agree entirely. It was a bold pick by the Lib Dems but he's not going to make it. Parliament's loss. I heard that in hustings the Labour candidate has done everything to make out she's just an ordinary girl without political heritage.foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements0 -
Can we have polls released on the day itself?Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
I quite agree. He will have two votes (at least) in the Cyclefree household. And he would be scathing about Labour's tolerance of the intolerable.foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements
As if (in response to Polruan Chris123) men and women - left to themselves - neatly segregate themselves on different sides of a room. It seems, it is depressing, that after all we have learnt about Islamist- enforced segregation at universities, all we have learnt about attitudes to women from Rotherham, Oxford and elsewhere, all we have learnt about contempt for the law and intimidation in Tower Hamlets, Labour bigwigs still see no problem or, even worse, don't care if there are votes in it and are quite willing to throw their liberal principles under the bus.
0 -
I usually start from the working assumption that any quoted anonymous frontbencher (from either side) would probably quite like to be PM one day.kle4 said:
'Senior' party figure is a favourite term of the media because it is so fungible. Old party grandees, serial rebels with long records, advisers and officials close now or in the past to someone who knew a bloke who once met a party leader. The supposed quote from a frontbencher seems more questionable, as someone on the front bench would surely keep their trap shut even if others might not.Dadge said:
What are the odds that the Times have just made this up? Which senior Labour MPs would say these things to the Times?Tissue_Price said:Front page of Times is big news. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, back Con Minority.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/5949800329273794580 -
Have you not met TSE?foxinsoxuk said:
But women would have been made very welcome if they attended. Male politics aficianados may well be Aspergersish, but not chauvinistic.bigjohnowls said:
Have you not been to a PB meeting before.foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.
Ones in Yorkshire and Manchester must have applied segregation by sex as not a single woman was evident in either.
Dirty Dicks was much more Liberal
Only joking!!0 -
Oh, I think they'll survive.nigel4england said:God help the people of Broxtowe.
0 -
Yes, all parties do believe in equality. The problem is Hattie Harman and her ilk that screamed about the golf clubs and members' clubs that separated men and women - even passing legislation to close them down if they didn't change their ways - seem perfectly happy to tolerate a meeting with the men on one side and the women on the other. In ANY other scenario she would be screaming about it, but because it's people from a certain minority then it's not just ignored but swept under the table.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
This attitude and double moral standards, as I said before, is what leads to the problems we saw in Rotherham, Rochdale and other cities.0 -
A lot of self-selection bias, little-to-no demographical weighing. And naming the candidates biases unfairly towards the lib demsTheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah it's not the gold standardStereotomy said:
I think the government is doing some kind of poll on Thursday too. Very large sample sizes, but I have my doubts about the methodology.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect to see a Panelbase and TNS poll this week as well, and possibly an Opinium too.Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
Certainly the one that had a woman as party leader for fifteen years does. The issue here, is the unwillingness to challenge female oppression, which if it was in any other circumstance, they wouldnt hesitate getting on their high horse.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
If this was a ukip gathering at a golf club which did not allow full female membership, Harmon would be condemning it out of hand. Could you imagine, the women having to sit in a different part of the club house and listen to Nigel Farage because they werent full members?
Im thinking of the twitter campaigns, the hashtags.0 -
No, that's bizarre. We've had up to 50 people canvassing on the same day, some of whom I don't know at all. Normally a canvasser won't give his own opinions on anything, merely note what the voter thinks. If he did come out with some weird idea, he'd simply be disowned. I'm sure that's the same for other parties?PaulM said:
Was speaking to a friend yesterday who had been canvassing in a key marginal. Was shocked when he said they only had four people plus the candidate canvassing across the whole constituency. Everyone else was leafleting or doing posters. apparently the low number of canvassers was because they didn't want anyone going off message. Is this the way campaigns are going now ?0 -
Thanks TSETheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
And which ones will YOU be paying most interest to???0 -
Yes, Ipsos Mori/The Standard have a long history of publishing a poll on election day.weejonnie said:
Can we have polls released on the day itself?Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
On Indyref day, they ran an Ipsos Mori Indyref poll.
So long as you don't publish how people voted before the polls closed, you should be ok.0 -
More's the pity.SouthamObserver said:
He has absolutely no chance at all.kle4 said:
Has there been any polling in Hampstead that might suggest the LD vote would hold up despite lack of any incumbency effect, or even just no collapse? Nawaz seems like a very interesting candidate, but seemingly has no chance. Perhaps he will get the opportunity to fight a more winnable seat (or Hampstead be more in play should the LDs recover) another time.foxinsoxuk said:
If the Lib Dems win only one seat then I hope that it is Hampstead and Kilburn. This is the voice that we need to hear in Westminster rather than the dynasic Bengali candidate.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?
http://www.hampsteadandkilburnlibdems.org.uk/endorsements0 -
Sandpit said:
Yes, all parties do believe in equality. The problem is Hattie Harman and her ilk that screamed about the golf clubs and members' clubs that separated men and women - even passing legislation to close them down if they didn't change their ways - seem perfectly happy to tolerate a meeting with the men on one side and the women on the other. In ANY other scenario she would be screaming about it, but because it's people from a certain minority then it's not just ignored but swept under the table.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
This attitude and double moral standards, as I said before, is what leads to the problems we saw in Rotherham, Rochdale and other cities.
Ha, snap....Sandpit said:
Yes, all parties do believe in equality. The problem is Hattie Harman and her ilk that screamed about the golf clubs and members' clubs that separated men and women - even passing legislation to close them down if they didn't change their ways - seem perfectly happy to tolerate a meeting with the men on one side and the women on the other. In ANY other scenario she would be screaming about it, but because it's people from a certain minority then it's not just ignored but swept under the table.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
This attitude and double moral standards, as I said before, is what leads to the problems we saw in Rotherham, Rochdale and other cities.0 -
One thing is certain. The SNP are the only party which has got a remotely socialist agenda. If they had a candidate in Kingston & Surbiton I would have voted for them.Flightpath1 said:
So the SNP are allies of Labour? The only allies Labour have are people who want to break up the UK.NickPalmer said:
Not really. It's because the Tories have no plausible allies. The LibDems who they're busy decapitating? The SNP who they're portraying as thieves and who are bound by party policy not to support them? Unless one thinks they could polevault to a majority themselves, it's hard to see any way that Cameron can stay in office.TheScreamingEagles said:
Because the electoral system favours Labour over the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
Why is EICIPM odds on?TheScreamingEagles said:
Because Ed is Crap.bigjohnowls said:http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Lab within 7 seats of most seats or 4 more gains from Con
Current price 6.0
Why?
I believe it has been mentioned/factored in.
I might do another thread on electoral reform to educate/remind PBers.
0 -
I thought that would "influence" people's votesTheScreamingEagles said:
YesSunil_Prasannan said:
Are polls allowed to be published on Thursday (election day)?TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
#fundilymundily now trending on Twitter across the UK.
Poor #creepyjim0 -
No, I think you're right about Hampstead & Kilburn, out of all the Labour held seats in the country it seems to be the one where Labour are having to put the most effort into, to defend.Blueberry said:
No idea. I was just looking at the interesting list of Labour movements provided by Andrea. I know Hampstead a bit and through relations am acquainted with the Lib Dems there. My understanding was that the Bangladeshi PM's niece was a certainty - hence my surprise at so much big beast activity by Labour in the area.bigjohnowls said:
How many of the Tory 23 targets have top Tories visited today?Blueberry said:
Amazed so many are in Hampstead. Suggests they're seriously on the back foot?AndreaParma_82 said:who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
Or are they on the back foot?0 -
I pay attention to all the polls, but probably the phone polls and Ipsos Mori in particular.RepublicanTory said:
Thanks TSETheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
And which ones will YOU be paying most interest to???
Their fieldwork will have ended slightly later than ICM's, so if there's a late swing, Ipsos Mori might be able to pick it up0 -
The crucial question nobody has yet addressed...
Is EdStone day too close to Ed Balls day to get another Bank Holiday out of it?0 -
Nothing Aspergerish about me thank you very much!!foxinsoxuk said:
But women would have been made very welcome if they attended. Male politics aficianados may well be Aspergersish, but not chauvinistic.bigjohnowls said:
Have you not been to a PB meeting before.foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.
Ones in Yorkshire and Manchester must have applied segregation by sex as not a single woman was evident in either.
Dirty Dicks was much more Liberal
0 -
This is hardly brilliant for the tories but given YG's methodology change - is it hiding something more significant? The tories have held a lead for what 3 consecutive polls?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov
CON - 34% (-)
LAB - 33% (-)
UKIP - 12% (-1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)0 -
Though some of us are! ;-)RepublicanTory said:
Nothing Aspergerish about me thank you very much!!foxinsoxuk said:
But women would have been made very welcome if they attended. Male politics aficianados may well be Aspergersish, but not chauvinistic.bigjohnowls said:
Have you not been to a PB meeting before.foxinsoxuk said:
I for one do object to segregation by sex etc. If people choose to do this in their places of worship then it is regretable that their religion is so backward as to not recognise the equality that we all have before God.surbiton said:
People like Cyclefree and others who feel so strongly about this, do they have the same opinion when such "segregation" is practised by Orthodox Jews - or does this criticism only apply to Muslims.Polruan said:
As far as I can see, the people present are essentially part of a club, in which they are free to participate or not. The rules of that club appear to include segregated seating. Labour are trying to reach out to all of the electorate, including members of that club, and unless the rules of that club are illegal then it could be considered a bit rude to treat its members as pariahs to be excluded from the political debate (well, unless they're also SNP members).Cyclefree said:Coming to this a bit late but segregation at a Labour party political meeting is an utter disgrace and one reason (more important in my mind than bits of stone) why Labour are unfit to be the government.
No party which is willing to abandon its alleged principles of equality for all before the law in pursuit of votes from the most reactionary and illiberal of voters is fit to be in government in my view.
Think of the slippery slope argument... if we object to this, then cabinet ministers could start insisting on bringing female colleagues to back-channel policy negotiations in all-male private members clubs.
But whatever goes on in the religious realm should be separate from the temporal realm of party politics. Segregation is completely unacceptable in that setting.
Ones in Yorkshire and Manchester must have applied segregation by sex as not a single woman was evident in either.
Dirty Dicks was much more Liberal0 -
Surely in an all male golf club women would not be allowed in.Sandpit said:
Yes, all parties do believe in equality. The problem is Hattie Harman and her ilk that screamed about the golf clubs and members' clubs that separated men and women - even passing legislation to close them down if they didn't change their ways - seem perfectly happy to tolerate a meeting with the men on one side and the women on the other. In ANY other scenario she would be screaming about it, but because it's people from a certain minority then it's not just ignored but swept under the table.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
This attitude and double moral standards, as I said before, is what leads to the problems we saw in Rotherham, Rochdale and other cities.
0 -
Sky election special is starting at 9:00 pm. What garbage are they going to talk about for an hour ? I think you are allowed to talk about generic voting patterns like , say, 37% of women voted Labour vs 32% voted Tory etc... which does not give any results.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, Ipsos Mori/The Standard have a long history of publishing a poll on election day.weejonnie said:
Can we have polls released on the day itself?Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
On Indyref day, they ran an Ipsos Mori Indyref poll.
So long as you don't publish how people voted before the polls closed, you should be ok.0 -
It does have a strong filter for registered voters though.Stereotomy said:
A lot of self-selection bias, little-to-no demographical weighing. And naming the candidates biases unfairly towards the lib demsTheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah it's not the gold standardStereotomy said:
I think the government is doing some kind of poll on Thursday too. Very large sample sizes, but I have my doubts about the methodology.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd expect to see a Panelbase and TNS poll this week as well, and possibly an Opinium too.Stereotomy said:
Thanks!TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
Great mindsnotme said:
Ha, snap....Sandpit said:
Yes, all parties do believe in equality. The problem is Hattie Harman and her ilk that screamed about the golf clubs and members' clubs that separated men and women - even passing legislation to close them down if they didn't change their ways - seem perfectly happy to tolerate a meeting with the men on one side and the women on the other. In ANY other scenario she would be screaming about it, but because it's people from a certain minority then it's not just ignored but swept under the table.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
This attitude and double moral standards, as I said before, is what leads to the problems we saw in Rotherham, Rochdale and other cities.
0 -
Can someone explain to me why Labour think the SNP saying they'd vote against any Labour austerity budgets is supposed to be a "game-changer"?
Surely SNP voters are going to think "well good, that's what we're bloody sending them there to do".0 -
Here is an example of Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP candidates attending an election event that women were banned from (never mind just forced to sit separately at):http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-attends-hustings-in-south-thanet--boycotted-by-greens-and-labour-for-menonly-audience-10000659.htmlnotme said:The issue here, is the unwillingness to challenge female oppression
Feel free to express your outrage here.0 -
Scientific research has reaffirmed the quite clear and commonly observed differences between men and women. Of course the issue is the left persists in demanding equality of outcome despite this and enacting increasingly authoritarian measures as their prior efforts meet with inevitable failure.SouthamObserver said:All our parties believe in equality of the sexes, don't they? Surely it's not just a Labour thing.
Of course the coalition between nutty feminists (and many other peculiar new left obsessions) and Muslims that exists in the Labour party is something that is contradictory and should be highlighted by opponents.0 -
Ms Cyclefree?Neil said:
Here is an example of Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP candidates attending an election event that women were banned from (never mind just forced to sit separately at):http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-attends-hustings-in-south-thanet--boycotted-by-greens-and-labour-for-menonly-audience-10000659.htmlnotme said:The issue here, is the unwillingness to challenge female oppression
Feel free to express your outrage here.0 -
Hmmm.... looks like the final ELBOW of the campaign will include all polls from 1st May to the 7th., not the 6th.TheScreamingEagles said:
YesSunil_Prasannan said:
Are polls allowed to be published on Thursday (election day)?TheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.0 -
Happy to condemn it. Hustings should be open to all.Neil said:
Here is an example of Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP candidates attending an election event that women were banned from (never mind just forced to sit separately at):http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-attends-hustings-in-south-thanet--boycotted-by-greens-and-labour-for-menonly-audience-10000659.htmlnotme said:The issue here, is the unwillingness to challenge female oppression
Feel free to express your outrage here.
0 -
Whichever gives the Tories their biggest lead !RepublicanTory said:
Thanks TSETheScreamingEagles said:
YesStereotomy said:Could somebody give a full list of polls we expect between now and election night?
3 YouGovs
2 Populus, Tues & Wednesday
1 ICM/Guardian on Wednesday
1 ComRes phone poll on Wednesday
1 Ipsos Mori on Thursday morning
1 Lord Ashcroft poll on Tuesday.
1 Survation either Tuesday or Wednesday
There maybe others, but those are the ones I know about.
And which ones will YOU be paying most interest to???0 -
I'm struggling to see what the problem with a men-only debate is? We have women-only ones don't we?Neil said:
Here is an example of Tory, Lib Dem and UKIP candidates attending an election event that women were banned from (never mind just forced to sit separately at):http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-attends-hustings-in-south-thanet--boycotted-by-greens-and-labour-for-menonly-audience-10000659.htmlnotme said:The issue here, is the unwillingness to challenge female oppression
Feel free to express your outrage here.0
