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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Curtice on the exit poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Curtice on the exit poll
Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end.
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What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.
Whoever it was, sounded like they were losing control of the situation.
In from 1.24 to 1.20 in last few mins.
Con Maj static.
in response to questioner turned-off by Miliband's "would prefer the Tories" gaffe...
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour
http://www.tom-watson.com/events
Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...
Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...
But how will you get a budget passed if you don't win a majority? Mr Murphy turns the question on Nicola Sturgeon - and challenges her to say under what circumstances she would vote against Labour and with the Conservatives.
Ms Sturgeon says the SNP would not vote for a Labour budget that proposed more spending cuts
"The cat is out the bag," declares Mr Murphy. "The SNP are clear that after Friday they are willing to bring down a Labour budget and Labour's Queen Speech."
The NHS has existed through more conservative governments than labour governments. It is still here and will stay here.
It doesn't matter what they say, it is going to look a lot like a deal and smell a lot like a deal to the ENGLISH voters.
Picture Ed and Alex on the podium together, both saying "No Deal" but with the Scot meaning it smugly and sarcastically.
I cannot BELIEVE they have gone with this crap again.
Seriously. Labour deserve to be destroyed.
I don't think it would be on-topic of me to answer that. The only reason I mentioned it was to stress that what I say about why LAB look set to lose this election comes from my intellect not from my tribal feeling, which is pro-LAB.
In most sections of the population other than the very rich (including the super-rich who just park their money here, often 'of unknown sources', to use a euphemism), there's a feeling that conditions are prettyy bad and, not only that, pretty precarious. The future doesn't look rosy.
The Tory leadership are a bunch of braying posh boys, the Liberals have sucked up to them for 5 years, and as for the SNP, they've just had their main policy, their defining policy, resoundingly rejected by the electorate. You might call 55% something other than resounding, but if you take on board the sheer number of YES posters, the efficiency of the YES campaign's organisation, and despite of those factors the unprecedentedly high turnout, I am telling you there was a huge groundswell of feeling for NO.
The country is still engaged in an unwinnable conflict in Afghanistan, and a lot of the PR towards the country's own service personnel and their families is having to be done by charities.
These conditions should have determined a landslide victory for LAB on both sides of the Tweed.
The big question is why won't that happen? And the answer is that LAB is widely and rightly perceived as having little or no vision or purposefulness to offer.
They should have taken the ball and run with it in September. They should have proposed an improvement to the Union, explicitly clothed in those terms. They didn't have a clue how to.
They haven't been able even to try to counter the domination of the newsspace by press releases from corporate pollsters.
Since WW2, the Tories have only ever fallen spectacularly - in 1945 and 1997, because of a massive wave of support for LAB; in 1964 and 1974 because they were seen as unfit to govern - in the first case, because they couldn't keep their trousers up; in the second, because millions of people wanted the coalminers to kick Heath's butt out of office; and indeed there was also a 'sleaze' factor in 1997.
These conditions don't pertain now.
We are now most likely to get either a CON majority government or what we've got now, a CON-LD (majority) coalition.
I am seriously onsidering coming out of my cocoon and trying to pour some sense into Ed Miliband's head personally.
Tonight it was the opposite for #creepyjim.
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central
I'd give him about 24 hours as leader if he even thought about maybe trying to think of discussing that promise with anyone after the election. He will make it a vote of confidence, as if it doesn't pass his backbenchers will have no confidence in him to pass anything else!!
Mr. JEO, precisely. Clegg thinks an In/Out vote is so disastrous he put it in the manifesto.
At 12:20am on the 8th
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/a53.stm
Although the Electoral Commission figures give it as 64%.
LibLabConKip are all the same. Vote for alternative parties like the SNP, Plaid, Greens or anyone. Just don't continue to support LibLabConKip.
Well done that man!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/track-cycling/11579414/Alex-Dowsett-sets-hour-record-at-Manchester-Velodrome.html
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
Must be doing triple recounts real fast there.
1st seat to declare : Houghton & Sunderland South. Labour safety #66 seat.
Electoralcalculus forecast (based on tories just ahead on overall seats)
Labour : 53%
Tories : 18%
UKIP : 14%
Green : 2.5%
LiB Dems: 3.5%
Almost certain Labour hold: To watch out for: Drop in Labour vote (if any): ratio of UKIP to Tories (possible anti-labour tv) : any increase in Lib Dem/ green votes as they will adversely affect Labour. If UKIP poll much stronger and labour lower then red shy-kipper effect could be in play (which could be bad for labour). If tories poll above 18 then blue-kippers coming back home.
It's very 'wonky' to quote David Blunkett on how in 2010 he thought going into opposition would be best for LAB long-term. Politicians don't care about the long term. He probably ust wanted to rub some of his younger LAB colleagues' faces in it.
If the SNP hold the balance, i.e. they could bring about a majority government, or even a stable-for-at-least-a-year minority government, either by doing a deal with LAB or by doing a deal with CON, or both, then they will do it - and if they have a chance to go both ways, they will go with whoever offers them the most. Never mind what they said before the election. And never mind any intellectual arguments over the definition of what counts as a "deal" and what doesn't. None of the party leaderships have any principles. It's all advertising nowadays.
Ashcroft's single constituency polls often found a significant difference in the answers given to the two questions, although (some would say controversially) he did not mention candidates by name, even after the nominations closed.
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
What'll be a bad result for SNP on Thursday? Given polls pointing to taking all 59 seats how far short can they be? My suggestion: 10 max
He would never get any pleasure from it, honest.
Clearly an AWFUL result.
Mike Smithson retweeted
David Axelrod@davidaxelrod·10 mins10 minutes ago Chicago, IL
I can see why the Tories are throwing stones over the idea of putting manifesto pledges on display, given the many they haven't kept!
I'm not convinced Wiggins will beat that on his attempt later this year.
Wiggins should have gone for it the day after the Olympics when he would have set a completely unsurpassable record. It's a shame.
Though, Castle Point at 2am might give an indication of how well or badly UKIP are going to do, ditto Thurrock and Basildon & East Thurrock at 3am
Election Forecast and the YouGov Nowcast will be other good ones to include especially as YouGov currently have a Labour lead on seats
http://on.ft.com/1I5pYsa
Not comparable.
Nobody was saying "Ed is going to get monstered for not being Left-Wing enough, but he'll do alright in English marginals".
If the likes of Dan Hodges are right they'll be right for all the wrong reasons.
Nick and Dave might, but will their parties take any notice?
(This election has more red ink than my bank statements)
It is still head exploding stuff trying to follow the Labour collapse in Scotland. But it is all the fault of Labour no one else. The tory vote is holding up. The polls will look stupid if it does not happen on the day. But Labour look to have totally failed to make their tory bogeyman ploy stick.
But the big question is, just as Scotland reject Labour will England flock to them to set up being exploited by a SNP/Lab coalition? Will moderate labour voters be so gullible? Or will they think, 'My head hurts! I'm staying at home.' ?
Meanwhile Sturgeon had to win the audience over which as usual she excelled at, this probably demotivated the Labour cacklers resulting in them losing enthusiasm for their Murphy adoration.
Are people really going to stay up until 6am in a boozer for the election.. I would kind of like to but would almost certainly drop off. How many are thinking of going?
They should piss up here.
I can see why the Tories are throwing stones over the idea of putting manifesto pledges on display, given the many they haven't kept