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  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    Freggles said:

    What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.

    "Largely unforeseen"?

    *cough*

    As I said on this site, four days BEFORE the indyref - "following a narrow NO vote the SNP will benefit from a huge sympathy vote at the next GE, as patriotic Scots voters say a guilty sorry for voting NO"

    It was quite foreseeable. I foresaw it. Apparently DavidL did, too.
    You also foresaw a Yes win.
    I make four zillion contradictory predictions a day, as any fule kno.

    But what was my Official Indyref Prediction in the PB Game? Have a look for yourself.

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/results.php?s_Name=sean+thomas
    lol Boom!
  • RobC
    RobC Posts: 398
    edited May 2015
    Is this a poll free day?

    Edit- ok seen there's a You Gov to come
  • Flightpath1
    Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    Freggles said:

    What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.

    "Largely unforeseen"?

    *cough*

    As I said on this site, four days BEFORE the indyref - "following a narrow NO vote the SNP will benefit from a huge sympathy vote at the next GE, as patriotic Scots voters say a guilty sorry for voting NO"

    It was quite foreseeable. I foresaw it. Apparently DavidL did, too.
    You also foresaw a Yes win.
    A coconut to anyone who foresaw the collapse in the oil price.
    What I suggest is that this is not a sympathy vote. Certainly the exodus of labour members and the rise in membership of the SNP was driven by a desire for far left policies for which independence was a means not an end.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Sixty Years Of Swing" - BBC Parliament:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcparliament
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited May 2015
    I don't know what but looks as if something significant happened about an hour ago.

    All day Con Most Seats had been around 1.24 or 1.25.

    Then suddenly it came in sharply and it's holding.

    Con 1.19/1.20
    Lab 6.0/6.4

    £23,000 has been matched at between 1.19 and 1.22 inclusive.
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    bigjohnowls said:

    True though

    I can see why the Tories are throwing stones over the idea of putting manifesto pledges on display, given the many they haven't kept

    Who said this:
    "manifesto pledges are not subject to legitimate expectation"

    And on who's behalf did he say it?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Robinson's got an interview with Cameron today [Miliband tomorrow]. Be interesting to see what tomorrow's headline is. Today's is: Election 2015: Would a Tory government create chaos?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32575123
  • ukelect
    ukelect Posts: 140
    Latest UK-Elect detailed forecast is here: May 3rd UK-Elect forecast

    It takes into account national, regional and constituency polls, and, as usual, includes top 3 forecasts for all UK constituencies.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    isam said:

    Regarding this drink on Thursday night/Friday morning...

    Are people really going to stay up until 6am in a boozer for the election.. I would kind of like to but would almost certainly drop off. How many are thinking of going?

    I was planning on going ^_^;;
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Nuneaton is at recount territory, Labour are going to lose badly imo.

    They should piss up here.

    Are Nuneaton Labour able to organise a "piss up" in a brewery ?

    Labour going sub 250 if they can't get Nuneaton imo.
  • Itwasrigged
    Itwasrigged Posts: 154
    Flightpath1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.

    Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?

    It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.

    Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?
    The first Scottish one from anywhere will be pretty interesting.
    I am hoping it will be Kirkcaldy but it will probably be one of the West Central Belt seats
    I cant remember who was first to call last time.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    JohnO said:

    Sixty Years of Swing with Peter Snow beginning now on Parlament Channel.

    This looks marevellous.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MikeL said:

    I don't know what but looks as if something significant happened about an hour ago.

    All day Con Most Seats had been around 1.24 or 1.25.

    Then suddenly it came in sharply and it's holding.

    Con 1.19/1.20
    Lab 6.0/6.4

    £23,000 has been matched at between 1.19 and 1.22 inclusive.

    Irrational exuberance ?
  • Flightpath1
    Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Robinson's got an interview with Cameron today [Miliband tomorrow]. Be interesting to see what tomorrow's headline is. Today's is: Election 2015: Would a Tory government create chaos?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32575123

    You have to credit the BBC. They are trying their best.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    Sixty Years of Swing with Peter Snow beginning now on Parlament Channel.

    A "Strictly Come Dancing" Repeat with Anne Widdecombe ?

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattChorley: Here's a fun game: Find a single shadow minister who has tweeted at all about the Moses moment http://t.co/0D9B6wBf1O http://t.co/20JxxJeU8H
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    NoEasyDay said:

    Sandpit said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    I wonder if i may ask if someone would enlighten on this two stage opinion poll questions, which polls has it been asked in and is the the second stage based on naming the candidate/s .

    The first stage is a general question about voting intention, the second asking the respondent to think specifically about his or her own constituency.
    Ashcroft's single constituency polls often found a significant difference in the answers given to the two questions, although (some would say controversially) he did not mention candidates by name, even after the nominations closed.
    Thankyou, not as clear cut as I had hoped. Ihad hoped they had asked "and turning to to your own constituency the candidates are, blah, blah. I wont bet bet quite as much as i had planned. In america i think they call this leading the witness.
    Sorry should have explained, basic human phsychology: when asked a question one gives the answer, if then asked another question, questioning the first, some think they have got the answer wrong and will of course not wishing to appear uninformed, and give the answer it is assumed the questioner is looking for. This a very well established human condition. They teach this in first year phsychology or at least did.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    ukelect said:

    Latest UK-Elect detailed forecast is here: May 3rd UK-Elect forecast

    It takes into account national, regional and constituency polls, and, as usual, includes top 3 forecasts for all UK constituencies.

    Thanks for that.

    I idly note that you now forecast Lab Short By 53 - Hung Parliament, whereas when you started on 1 October last year the forecast was Labour Majority 44. I hadn't previously appreciated the scale or the rapidity of crap ed's excellent implosion.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. kle4, it's true, but it's also essentially saying "If Labour won more seats they'd be doing better."
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    logical_song said:

    JEO said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    surbiton said:

    The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.

    Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.

    I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.

    What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.
    Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?
    Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.
    The problem with the proposed Tory referendum is that it will lead to 2 years of uncertainty, which is bad for business. If it takes place and the vote is to leave, then you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.
    Quite possibly Scotland but certainly not Gibraltar. It is only the connection with Britain that is preventing them being swallowed up by Spain and I can assure you that is one thing they don't want under any circumstances, no matter how pro-EU they might be. More Eurofanatical scare mongering.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Is that Angus Loughran on Sixty Years of Swing?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    edited May 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, it's true, but it's also essentially saying "If Labour won more seats they'd be doing better."

    Yes, it implies that Labour has a God given right to those 40 seats in Scotland.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    This will upset some people...

    @tnewtondunn: Two nuggets from Indy's @DavidAxelrod interview: 1. Air wars win elections not ground wars, 2. He's going back to Chicago before Thursday.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, it's true, but it's also essentially saying "If Labour won more seats they'd be doing better."

    Fair enough, but there were a lot of people confident the Tories would win a year ago, and without that SNP rise I have no idea how they thought that was going to happen.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    I don't see why this is apparently some "black mark" against any Tory "victory". The wipeout of Tories in Scotland, urged and accelerated by Labour, is one of the reasons FPTP is so bad for Conservatives.

    Now the same is happening to Labour. This is, if anything, a rebalancing. It removes some of the bias and makes FPTP a little "fairer".
    I don't regard it as a black mark myself - I just don't know how Tories thought they were going to win until the SNP rise happened.
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    Final Ashcroft National Poll is this Tuesday. The good Lord just replied to my Tweet...

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/594958392919236611
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Northampton North is a key Labour target which I think the Tories could hold against the odds.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    PaulM said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the Tories think they have a chance of winning three seats in Scotland compared to zero for Labour. Not sure where the third one of those is going to come from...

    Presume the three would be Dumfrieshire, Berwickshire, and West Aberdeenshire
    DCT and WAK are nailed on snp gains. Its RBS or bust now.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MikeL said:

    I don't know what but looks as if something significant happened about an hour ago.

    All day Con Most Seats had been around 1.24 or 1.25.

    Then suddenly it came in sharply and it's holding.

    Con 1.19/1.20
    Lab 6.0/6.4

    £23,000 has been matched at between 1.19 and 1.22 inclusive.

    Yougov polls UKIP at 18%? Or, more likely, polls Con +2 (which would be a record)
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    He might as well return home, his "contract" ends on Wednesday?
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Except that it is arithmetic illiteracy. And I can't think of any more basic illiteracy (other than the obvious).
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    This might be the best policy Boris has come up with since being Mayor:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/dont-silence-pipes-fury-boris-5585374

    Given there's one that plays the same tune outside my office for hours on end, I'm delighted.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Because I'm interested in substance not form, I've read the words on the #EdStone What utter vacuous pap http://t.co/f8O2eBXWVM
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Flightpath1 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Robinson's got an interview with Cameron today [Miliband tomorrow]. Be interesting to see what tomorrow's headline is. Today's is: Election 2015: Would a Tory government create chaos?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32575123

    You have to credit the BBC. They are trying their best.
    Tomorrow's "Miliband's golden vision for the UK. Peace, plenty and free owls for everyone."
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Except that it is arithmetic illiteracy. And I can't think of any more basic illiteracy (other than the obvious).
    I don't follow. If Labour were to hold onto the seats they currently have in Scotland, they'd definitely win most seats, possibly by quite a lot. As it is, because they won't hold onto many of those seats, the Tories have a chance.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson

    On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour

    http://www.tom-watson.com/events

    Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...

    Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...

    more than 72 hours ago.

    Labour, always wrong and never learn
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    117/4, are England about to once again claim defeat from the jaws of victory?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    I don't see why this is apparently some "black mark" against any Tory "victory". The wipeout of Tories in Scotland, urged and accelerated by Labour, is one of the reasons FPTP is so bad for Conservatives.

    Now the same is happening to Labour. This is, if anything, a rebalancing. It removes some of the bias and makes FPTP a little "fairer".
    The point has been made before, but this current discussion is based on my making it earlier and you and MD have spectacularly missed the point.

    The point is not that Labour 'should' be winning the election as a matter of principle, the point is that as early as 2012 commentators have been saying the polls would swing back to the Tories and Ed would fail to win a majority.
    That may well come to pass, but it will not be for the reasons that those commentators pointed to (not telegenic enough, too left wing) but rather because he's been attacked from the Left by the SNP.
    It's like a third party jumped in the ring and lamped Pacquaio, then all the commentators say "I knew Mayweather would win"
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    MikeL said:


    £23,000 has been matched at between 1.19 and 1.22 inclusive.

    Is this the guy who put £20k with Shadsy on the Tory majority last week, hedging his bets?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Freggles, to a significant extent polls have swung back [Labour was recording double digit leads]. We'll have to wait and see how things go. I think you've also neglected the rise of UKIP, which is unlikely to win many seats, but could alter things to the detriment of either major party.

    Mr. JEO, bagpipes are the flatulence of Lucifer.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    PaulM said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the Tories think they have a chance of winning three seats in Scotland compared to zero for Labour. Not sure where the third one of those is going to come from...

    Presume the three would be Dumfrieshire, Berwickshire, and West Aberdeenshire
    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, it's true, but it's also essentially saying "If Labour won more seats they'd be doing better."

    Fair enough, but there were a lot of people confident the Tories would win a year ago, and without that SNP rise I have no idea how they thought that was going to happen.
    Because the Lib Dems hate the SNP :)
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    I predict one upmanship.. I predict one upmanship!
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Itwasrigged said:

    Flightpath1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.

    Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?

    It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.

    Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?
    The first Scottish one from anywhere will be pretty interesting.
    I am hoping it will be Kirkcaldy but it will probably be one of the West Central Belt seats
    I cant remember who was first to call last time.
    Kirkcaldy was first Scottish seat to be called in 2010.
    Kingswood was first marginal to be called.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Ed4PM: Get your memorial pledge stone keyring from http://t.co/kXZRYlHkQ1 and help elect #Ed4PM. http://t.co/5LrHdjYZ0J
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Except that it is arithmetic illiteracy. And I can't think of any more basic illiteracy (other than the obvious).
    I don't follow. If Labour were to hold onto the seats they currently have in Scotland, they'd definitely win most seats, possibly by quite a lot. As it is, because they won't hold onto many of those seats, the Tories have a chance.
    That's if you think having most seats is important. I suppose it makes getting the Lib Dems on board a little harder but I reckon they're going to support Labour whatever. Effectively the rise of the SNP is a nuisance to Labour in the long term because of perceptions of pork barrel politics.

    In answer to your original question I guess the Tories were counting on eating into Ukip more than they appear to have done so up to now.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    isam said:

    Whatever happened to Mick Pork?

    Oh, he's rooting around perfectly happily on scotgoespop (and possibly other cognate pro-indy sites).

  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    SeanT said:

    Freggles said:

    What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.

    "Largely unforeseen"?

    *cough*

    As I said on this site, four days BEFORE the indyref - "following a narrow NO vote the SNP will benefit from a huge sympathy vote at the next GE, as patriotic Scots voters say a guilty sorry for voting NO"

    It was quite foreseeable. I foresaw it. Apparently DavidL did, too.
    Losing the referendum not being a disaster for the SNP wasn't exactly rocket science.

    'Theuniondivvie Posts: 3,504
    April 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:
    Looking at the SNP lead with Mori in February, I struggle to foresee it happening as well.
    The main known unknown is what happens to the SNP voteshare if Scotland votes comprehensively to remain in the Union. Bugger all I suspect. But you never know. Defeat does to weird things to political parties.

    Obviously I'm hoping for a different result, but even in that case, all I can see is the group of voters who currently vote SNP but don't want independence being massively reassured, and growing.'

    Couple of other cracking predictions from that very thread.

    'Theuniondivvie Posts: 3,504
    April 2013 edited April 2013
    Barring the blackest of swans I'd give you very decent odds against Johann ever being FM.'

    'Theuniondivvie Posts: 3,504
    April 2013 edited April 2013
    I'm not sure if the Salmond v women issue isn't being overstated; the gender imbalance is substantially greater in referendum v. Holyrood polling so I'd guess fear of the unknown is the greater issue. Sturgeon taking over after a losing referendum is certainly a strong possibilty'


    That's enough wanking - ed.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Except that it is arithmetic illiteracy. And I can't think of any more basic illiteracy (other than the obvious).
    I don't follow. If Labour were to hold onto the seats they currently have in Scotland, they'd definitely win most seats, possibly by quite a lot. As it is, because they won't hold onto many of those seats, the Tories have a chance.
    That makes no difference to the chance of a Tory government. The SNP will vote down a Tory QS. It makes it more awkward for Labour but makes no difference to their chance of government (actually it IMPROVES it as the SNP will win 12 Coalition seats).

    If Labour are a Majority without losing Scottish seats, the Labour+SNP are a Majority so David Cameron is gone.
  • stodge
    stodge Posts: 14,908
    Evening all :)

    To be honest, the stone pledges, rather like Cameron's "cast-iron" guarantee of an EU Referendum, is an attempt to convince a sceptical public that a politician can be trusted to do what they say.

    The problem, of course, is no one is convinced.

    We also have the frantic talking-up of prospects from the Conservative side amid the growing realisation they are coming to come up short and the prospect of fractious Opposition looms.

    Far too early for any kind of panic - there are still three days to go and as we saw last time, the power of the late swing is not to be under-estimated. I expect the Conservatives to "win" in terms of votes but to come up short in terms of seats but we can certainly disregard the pre-election hyperbole of who won't do a deal with who and see what happens.

    My personal concern, as an LD member, is not if the Party is wiped out (it happened in 1970 and 1979 and we're still here) but if Nick tries to bounce the Party into Coalition 2.0 just as David Steel tried to bounce the SDP and Liberals into merger in the immediate aftermath of the 1987 election.

    Tired people with little sleep tend to say and do things which backfire disastrously.

    I suspect Nick wants Coalition 2.0 but the Party (at least those members I speak to) are much less willing to go into another deal with the Conservatives. I fear Nick and the Orange Bookers will want to continue co-operating with the Conservatives and will become the 21st Century equivalent of the National Liberals while Farron and others will not and we will be staring at a de facto schism.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Tomorrow, it's revealed Cameron ordered the creation of a series of canals so vast they made visible from space the message 'No Tax Rises' .

    Too much? I'm just sad, as the sides will probably not risk another day of mockery by testing out such unconventional ideas again, and we probably won't have much humour in the rest of the campaign.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Freggles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    I don't see why this is apparently some "black mark" against any Tory "victory". The wipeout of Tories in Scotland, urged and accelerated by Labour, is one of the reasons FPTP is so bad for Conservatives.

    Now the same is happening to Labour. This is, if anything, a rebalancing. It removes some of the bias and makes FPTP a little "fairer".
    The point has been made before, but this current discussion is based on my making it earlier and you and MD have spectacularly missed the point.

    The point is not that Labour 'should' be winning the election as a matter of principle, the point is that as early as 2012 commentators have been saying the polls would swing back to the Tories and Ed would fail to win a majority.
    That may well come to pass, but it will not be for the reasons that those commentators pointed to (not telegenic enough, too left wing) but rather because he's been attacked from the Left by the SNP.
    It's like a third party jumped in the ring and lamped Pacquaio, then all the commentators say "I knew Mayweather would win"
    What point are you making here? Most forecasts made about anything in 2012 have turned out wrong by now; that's forecasts for you. And the case can be powerfully made that the rise of the SNP is in large part a consequence of ed's crapness in mishandling Falkirk, mishandling Indyref and lacking personal appeal to the Scottish electorate so the 2012 forecasts were in the right ballpark, just didn't foresee all the detail.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Dair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson

    On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour

    http://www.tom-watson.com/events

    Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...

    Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...

    HAHAHHHA

    I cannot BELIEVE they have gone with this crap again.

    Seriously. Labour deserve to be destroyed.
    Something we can agree on :-)
  • PaulM
    PaulM Posts: 613
    hunchman said:

    PaulM said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the Tories think they have a chance of winning three seats in Scotland compared to zero for Labour. Not sure where the third one of those is going to come from...

    Presume the three would be Dumfrieshire, Berwickshire, and West Aberdeenshire
    DCT and WAK are nailed on snp gains. Its RBS or bust now.

    If it's nailed on you should jump on the 1/2 being offered by Hills on SNP winning DCT. They are 1/7 for WAK but given Ruth Davidson was up there last week maybe the Tories are seeing something else and 11/2 Tory win is the value bet.
  • Andy_Cooke
    Andy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Oh?
    The SNP taking seats from Labour doesn't get the Tories one seat closer to retaining power - it just makes it harder for the Tories to do so.

    And they're also taking seats from the Lib Dems, which could be crucial to Cameron's chances of making Coalition 2: Austerity Boogaloo.

    If the Tories hang on to 290 seats+, they could retain power with the Lib Dems in the high twenties. If you swung those Scottish seats back to Labour and some to the Lib Dems, you'd still get a hung Parliament, but with the Lib Dems as kingmakers.

    They'd probably still be a handful of seats short - but that's certainly not "nowhere near"
  • Flightpath1
    Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Scott_P said:

    This will upset some people...

    @tnewtondunn: Two nuggets from Indy's @DavidAxelrod interview: 1. Air wars win elections not ground wars, 2. He's going back to Chicago before Thursday.

    I would have thought that the knowledge that labours 'guru' was a hated American (never mind how left wing) would send all the grade A left wing fruit loop nutjobs totally apoplectic. No wonder we see the Greens and SNP where they are.
  • sarissa
    sarissa Posts: 2,190
    Itwasrigged said:

    Flightpath1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.

    Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?

    It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.

    Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?
    The first Scottish one from anywhere will be pretty interesting.
    I am hoping it will be Kirkcaldy but it will probably be one of the West Central Belt seats
    I cant remember who was first to call last time.
    Clackmannanshire (Central region) was first with the referendum declaration, so watch out for Ochil and South Perthshire result.

    Election forecast suggest a 5:2:2 voting ratio for SNP/Lab/Con - any differences could indicate a fallback from the current SNP position or a the extent of a Lab/Con tactical vote.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Itwasrigged said:

    Flightpath1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.

    Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?

    It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.

    Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?
    The first Scottish one from anywhere will be pretty interesting.
    I am hoping it will be Kirkcaldy but it will probably be one of the West Central Belt seats
    I cant remember who was first to call last time.
    Kirkcaldy was first Scottish seat to be called in 2010.
    Kingswood was first marginal to be called.
    Labour aren't winning either ;)
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Ishmael_X said:

    Freggles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    I don't see why this is apparently some "black mark" against any Tory "victory". The wipeout of Tories in Scotland, urged and accelerated by Labour, is one of the reasons FPTP is so bad for Conservatives.

    Now the same is happening to Labour. This is, if anything, a rebalancing. It removes some of the bias and makes FPTP a little "fairer".
    The point has been made before, but this current discussion is based on my making it earlier and you and MD have spectacularly missed the point.

    The point is not that Labour 'should' be winning the election as a matter of principle, the point is that as early as 2012 commentators have been saying the polls would swing back to the Tories and Ed would fail to win a majority.
    That may well come to pass, but it will not be for the reasons that those commentators pointed to (not telegenic enough, too left wing) but rather because he's been attacked from the Left by the SNP.
    It's like a third party jumped in the ring and lamped Pacquaio, then all the commentators say "I knew Mayweather would win"
    What point are you making here? Most forecasts made about anything in 2012 have turned out wrong by now; that's forecasts for you. And the case can be powerfully made that the rise of the SNP is in large part a consequence of ed's crapness in mishandling Falkirk, mishandling Indyref and lacking personal appeal to the Scottish electorate so the 2012 forecasts were in the right ballpark, just didn't foresee all the detail.
    In a nutshell, Dan Hodges sucks at politics
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    isam said:

    I predict one upmanship.. I predict one upmanship!

    You betcha!
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    If it didn't rain there wouldn't be grass.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    logical_song said:

    JEO said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    surbiton said:

    The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.

    Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.

    I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.

    What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.
    Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?
    Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.
    The problem with the proposed Tory referendum is that it will lead to 2 years of uncertainty, which is bad for business. If it takes place and the vote is to leave, then you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.
    That's a shame, I will miss Gibraltar.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Floater said:

    logical_song said:

    JEO said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    surbiton said:

    The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.

    Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.

    I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.

    What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.
    Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?
    Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.
    The problem with the proposed Tory referendum is that it will lead to 2 years of uncertainty, which is bad for business. If it takes place and the vote is to leave, then you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.
    That's a shame, I will miss Gibraltar.
    lol
  • Flightpath1
    Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    NoEasyDay said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    If it didn't rain there wouldn't be grass.
    You are Forrest Gump and I claim my £5 :-)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Except that it is arithmetic illiteracy. And I can't think of any more basic illiteracy (other than the obvious).
    I don't follow. If Labour were to hold onto the seats they currently have in Scotland, they'd definitely win most seats, possibly by quite a lot. As it is, because they won't hold onto many of those seats, the Tories have a chance.
    That makes no difference to the chance of a Tory government. The SNP will vote down a Tory QS. It makes it more awkward for Labour but makes no difference to their chance of government (actually it IMPROVES it as the SNP will win 12 Coalition seats).

    If Labour are a Majority without losing Scottish seats, the Labour+SNP are a Majority so David Cameron is gone.
    The Tories theoretically have a chance because Labour cannot get close to a majority without a lot of help. While we know the SNP will back them up, it isn't as smooth and assured an arrangement as would be the case were those seats remaining with Lab - no risk at all of a second election happening, or the sides being too stubborn to make a deal, no chance of a Tory minority limping on because of that. The Tories do not have a good chance because the SNP have won seats, but it gives them a chance because of the potential permutations, which is more than they would have without it. That is the only point here. Lab are clearly ahead without the SNP rise, the Tories cannot even argue they 'won' or try to put together they own coalition, futilely, whereas now they can make the attempt if they win most seats.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Well EdStone made the front of the FT

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEG8PwPXIAAw4uq.jpg
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    EdStone makes it into the FT

    @hendopolis: FINANCIAL TIMES: Coalition planning by @GeorgeWParker #tomorrowspaperstoday http://t.co/xSnkkmibqK
  • Flightpath1
    Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Freggles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Freggles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    I don't see why this is apparently some "black mark" against any Tory "victory". The wipeout of Tories in Scotland, urged and accelerated by Labour, is one of the reasons FPTP is so bad for Conservatives.

    Now the same is happening to Labour. This is, if anything, a rebalancing. It removes some of the bias and makes FPTP a little "fairer".
    The point has been made before, but this current discussion is based on my making it earlier and you and MD have spectacularly missed the point.

    The point is not that Labour 'should' be winning the election as a matter of principle, the point is that as early as 2012 commentators have been saying the polls would swing back to the Tories and Ed would fail to win a majority.
    That may well come to pass, but it will not be for the reasons that those commentators pointed to (not telegenic enough, too left wing) but rather because he's been attacked from the Left by the SNP.
    It's like a third party jumped in the ring and lamped Pacquaio, then all the commentators say "I knew Mayweather would win"
    What point are you making here? Most forecasts made about anything in 2012 have turned out wrong by now; that's forecasts for you. And the case can be powerfully made that the rise of the SNP is in large part a consequence of ed's crapness in mishandling Falkirk, mishandling Indyref and lacking personal appeal to the Scottish electorate so the 2012 forecasts were in the right ballpark, just didn't foresee all the detail.
    In a nutshell, Dan Hodges sucks at politics
    Not as much as Gordon Brown.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @Ed4PM: Get your memorial pledge stone keyring from http://t.co/kXZRYlHkQ1 and help elect #Ed4PM. http://t.co/5LrHdjYZ0J

    Scott, you tease. I went through all the gifts on Labour's website before I realised that was a spoof.

    On the positive side, immigration mugs have been re-ordered and they are now back on sale for delivery "Start of May".
    https://shop.labour.org.uk/products/pledge-4-mug-controls-on-immigration-551/
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    NoEasyDay said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    If it didn't rain there wouldn't be grass.
    I really have no idea why people are finding this such a strange thing to be curious about - many Tories were genuinely confident of winning for quite some time, and I am just curious as to how they thought that was going to happen, given even with some fallback in the Labour position they would not have gotten close without the SNP rise. What was behind that confidence is what I am curious about. It surely cannot have entirely rest on the idea that Ed is Crap.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow, it's revealed Cameron ordered the creation of a series of canals so vast they made visible from space the message 'No Tax Rises' .

    Too much? I'm just sad, as the sides will probably not risk another day of mockery by testing out such unconventional ideas again, and we probably won't have much humour in the rest of the campaign.

    Laughed out loud at that one!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The BBC has reportedly chosen a “dream team” of presenters for its new version of Top Gear that includes the former model Jodie Kidd.

    Life on Mars star Philip Glenister and Channel 4 presenter Guy Martin have also been approached for the new series, according to reports.

    http://bit.ly/1EJITXc
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well EdStone made the front of the FT

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEG8PwPXIAAw4uq.jpg

    Is it just me or is Ed wearing blue ties with quite a bit of frequency in this campaign? I'm glad he doesn't feel the need to colour code his party allegiance - I sometimes worry doing so plays into the hands of those who can say there is literally no difference between the party leaders such that they need different ties to identify them.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The BBC has reportedly chosen a “dream team” of presenters for its new version of Top Gear that includes the former model Jodie Kidd.

    Life on Mars star Philip Glenister and Channel 4 presenter Guy Martin have also been approached for the new series, according to reports.

    http://bit.ly/1EJITXc

    Jodie Kidd.

    Tipped up by @Nigel4England.

    #Boom !
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    sarissa said:

    Itwasrigged said:

    Flightpath1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.

    Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?

    It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.

    Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?
    The first Scottish one from anywhere will be pretty interesting.
    I am hoping it will be Kirkcaldy but it will probably be one of the West Central Belt seats
    I cant remember who was first to call last time.
    Clackmannanshire (Central region) was first with the referendum declaration, so watch out for Ochil and South Perthshire result.

    Election forecast suggest a 5:2:2 voting ratio for SNP/Lab/Con - any differences could indicate a fallback from the current SNP position or a the extent of a Lab/Con tactical vote.
    Ochil and South Perthshire is MASSIVELY different to Clackmannan (where I used to live).

    The referendum was done by council areas. Clackmannan is the smallest county in Scotland and the smallest (geographic) Council area. Nowhere is more than 20 miles from the count. At most 30 minutes from the count.

    Ochil and South Perthshire has polling stations at least 80 minutes from the count (assuming it is in Alloa which it probably will be).
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Front page of FT has Ed's gravestone.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    137-4 represents a poor bowling effort imo.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    dr_spyn said:

    Front page of FT has Ed's gravestone.

    I cannot believe I am saying this, but such a silly, if funny story, loses something without a tabloid style over the top headline next to it.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Mellorphant losing without dignity.

    Iff Farage were to lose, I reckon we'd get a similar reaction.
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    kle4 said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    If it didn't rain there wouldn't be grass.
    I really have no idea why people are finding this such a strange thing to be curious about - many Tories were genuinely confident of winning for quite some time, and I am just curious as to how they thought that was going to happen, given even with some fallback in the Labour position they would not have gotten close without the SNP rise. What was behind that confidence is what I am curious about. It surely cannot have entirely rest on the idea that Ed is Crap.
    Based on the normal fact that economc success delivers political success.

    Destroyed by the fact economic sucess didnt filter down far enough
    A bone idle leader
    And a leader who denigrated the voters he needed to win over as "closet racists and fruitcakes"

    No one could anticipapted what a poor politician Cameron is.

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2015
    @SamCoatesTimes: So in tomorrow's Times, we speak to a range of Labour MPs about the prospect of only being able to get EM into No10 with SNP MPs...

    @SamCoatesTimes: We find some Labour folk - even frontbenchers - harbour doubts about the legitimacy of coming 2nd in seats & votes but going into No10
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mellorphant losing without dignity.

    Iff Farage were to lose, I reckon we'd get a similar reaction.

    The holy trinity: no Farage, no Salmond, and no TPD.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The BBC has reportedly chosen a “dream team” of presenters for its new version of Top Gear that includes the former model Jodie Kidd.

    Life on Mars star Philip Glenister and Channel 4 presenter Guy Martin have also been approached for the new series, according to reports.

    http://bit.ly/1EJITXc

    As long as they stop it being a "Guy and Jodie flirt with each other" show, those two should work very, very well. The only problem is that they are both too competent. You'd expect either of them to be able to change a gear box. It was always surprising when Jezza and Hammond were able to (they were/are competent but you never expected them to be).
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    England have as much chance of winning this test as David Cameron does of winning the election.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited May 2015
    I've said Kippers are a bunch of Wayne Kerrs

    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/594967764068085760
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The BBC has reportedly chosen a “dream team” of presenters for its new version of Top Gear that includes the former model Jodie Kidd.

    Life on Mars star Philip Glenister and Channel 4 presenter Guy Martin have also been approached for the new series, according to reports.

    http://bit.ly/1EJITXc

    Aww. Can't they let it die with dignity?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    England have as much chance of winning this test as David Cameron does of winning the election.
    Not insignificant but highly unlikely?
  • Flightpath1
    Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Andy_Cooke said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm glad that Robinson made the point that the Tories would not have even gotten close to getting back into power if the SNP were not demolishing Labour; it seems to be ignored much of the time.

    Oh?
    The SNP taking seats from Labour doesn't get the Tories one seat closer to retaining power - it just makes it harder for the Tories to do so.

    And they're also taking seats from the Lib Dems, which could be crucial to Cameron's chances of making Coalition 2: Austerity Boogaloo.

    If the Tories hang on to 290 seats+, they could retain power with the Lib Dems in the high twenties. If you swung those Scottish seats back to Labour and some to the Lib Dems, you'd still get a hung Parliament, but with the Lib Dems as kingmakers.

    They'd probably still be a handful of seats short - but that's certainly not "nowhere near"
    Thanks for that. Your post neatly encapsulates a whirlpool of head exploding voters. I even went a bit dizzy myself. It must be a nightmare living in anything remotely marginal. On balance I still think TSE's avowed intent got it right in Hallam. Sane people need to vote tory and take it from there.
    Or as Admr. Farragut said, 'Full steam ahead and damn the torpedoes'
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pulpstar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    137-4 represents a poor bowling effort imo.

    Surely, it's more that the English batting was abysmal. Cricket needs the West Indies to win again. We need their bowlers to be ferocious, their batsmen to build winning innings. It will help our game immensely. And in cricket, cricket is what matters most.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    'Two nuggets from Indy's @DavidAxelrod interview: 1. Air wars win elections not ground wars, 2. He's going back to Chicago before Thursday.'

    IOS will be gutted after telling us for the past two years about Labour's superior ground war.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    England have as much chance of winning this test as David Cameron does of winning the election.
    Oh, you mean England are favourites then?
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    England have as much chance of winning this test as David Cameron does of winning the election.
    142/4 now, I can't see it going England's way any more.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    'Two nuggets from Indy's @DavidAxelrod interview: 1. Air wars win elections not ground wars, 2. He's going back to Chicago before Thursday.'

    IOS will be gutted after telling us for the past two years about Labour's superior ground war.

    I'd have thought air wars were more significant in the States when you can bombard the populace with endless campaign ads.
  • H&K
    H&K Posts: 1
    Betting Post

    Good evening everybody!

    I'd be grateful for any opinions on the market for UKIP second places which is on Betfair and Ladbrokes. Paddy Power also had the same market last week but have taken it down.

    Shadsy's and Betfair's bands are a little different but does anyone have any views on how many times UKIP will come second? If you look at the individual constituencies they are second in the betting 225 times. This bet also has the potential to provide a little more interest when all the safe seats are being declared.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    England have as much chance of winning this test as David Cameron does of winning the election.
    192 should be well defendable with the 1,2,3 innings scores.

    Same as Ed getting to his 270 or so winning post is my read ^^;
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    kle4 said:

    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    'Two nuggets from Indy's @DavidAxelrod interview: 1. Air wars win elections not ground wars, 2. He's going back to Chicago before Thursday.'

    IOS will be gutted after telling us for the past two years about Labour's superior ground war.

    I'd have thought air wars were more significant in the States when you can bombard the populace with endless campaign ads.
    Sounds like an American flying over here with no clue about elections work in this country. A few election broadcasts and the odd billboard aren't going to affect things much here. Either that or he's just ripping off Labour for all he can get out of them.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    On balance, I much prefer New Zealand to Australia. I'm afraid I'd also like to see the Windies win this test.

    England have as much chance of winning this test as David Cameron does of winning the election.
    Not insignificant but highly unlikely?
    50 runs off 6 wickets is pretty much insignificant. It's just not completely and utterly impossible.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    'Two nuggets from Indy's @DavidAxelrod interview: 1. Air wars win elections not ground wars, 2. He's going back to Chicago before Thursday.'

    IOS will be gutted after telling us for the past two years about Labour's superior ground war.

    He's taking Labour for mugs. It seems like he has no idea about UK elections.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    PaulM said:

    hunchman said:

    PaulM said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the Tories think they have a chance of winning three seats in Scotland compared to zero for Labour. Not sure where the third one of those is going to come from...

    Presume the three would be Dumfrieshire, Berwickshire, and West Aberdeenshire
    DCT and WAK are nailed on snp gains. Its RBS or bust now.

    If it's nailed on you should jump on the 1/2 being offered by Hills on SNP winning DCT. They are 1/7 for WAK but given Ruth Davidson was up there last week maybe the Tories are seeing something else and 11/2 Tory win is the value bet.
    Well it's not as though there are a lot of target seats for her to visit is it? ! DCT labour voters rowing in behind the snp. That's clear from the ashcroft polls.
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