politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Curtice on the exit poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » John Curtice on the exit poll
Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end.
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First!0
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and it's going to make for an exciting night!0
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why have none of these academics just not thought to contact Jack W?0
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I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.0 -
Did the moderator just scream STOPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP?
Whoever it was, sounded like they were losing control of the situation.0 -
HUGE move on Con Most Seats.
In from 1.24 to 1.20 in last few mins.
Con Maj static.0 -
Murphy: we will always vote against a Tory Queen's Speech.
in response to questioner turned-off by Miliband's "would prefer the Tories" gaffe...0 -
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.0 -
They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
Press Association list of estimated declaration times:
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php0 -
Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson
On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour
http://www.tom-watson.com/events
Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...
Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...0 -
Refreshing honesty from Prof Curtice, in admitting what we have all being discussing here recently - that it really is too close to call and the final seat numbers could be almost anything!!
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Well if a 20,000 opinion poll of people who have just voted may be vague or wrong, what chance 1200 , a quarter of which haven't 'decided' or refused to say?0
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Jim Muprhy insists that Labour will not do a post-election deal with the SNP if it falls short of a majority.
But how will you get a budget passed if you don't win a majority? Mr Murphy turns the question on Nicola Sturgeon - and challenges her to say under what circumstances she would vote against Labour and with the Conservatives.
Ms Sturgeon says the SNP would not vote for a Labour budget that proposed more spending cuts0 -
Nicola imperious performance. The 3 unionists are simply pygmies when compared to her. Went to the Southampton hustings for the romsey seat today. Utterly uninspiring performance from all of the 5 candidates.0
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4 down - this test match is a good warm up for late Thursday/ Friday.0
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Ms Sturgeon says the SNP would not vote for a Labour budget that proposed more spending cuts - saying the party would fight for a fairer deal.
"The cat is out the bag," declares Mr Murphy. "The SNP are clear that after Friday they are willing to bring down a Labour budget and Labour's Queen Speech."0 -
Don't worry its just Labour hysterics. Lots of labour heads exploding at the minute.Sandpit said:
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.0 -
So is it really 72 hours this time? Didnt they say that last time? And every other election? Do they pinky promise this time, they really mean it?FrancisUrquhart said:Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson
On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour
http://www.tom-watson.com/events
Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...
Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...
The NHS has existed through more conservative governments than labour governments. It is still here and will stay here.0 -
Will Tom Watson only go to events where there is a mixed audience? Oh wait a minute.....FrancisUrquhart said:Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson
On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour
http://www.tom-watson.com/events
Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...
Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...0 -
Not this one again, first Miliband on Thursday and now Murphy.bigjohnowls said:Jim Muprhy insists that Labour will not do a post-election deal with the SNP if it falls short of a majority.
But how will you get a budget passed if you don't win a majority? Mr Murphy turns the question on Nicola Sturgeon - and challenges her to say under what circumstances she would vote against Labour and with the Conservatives.
Ms Sturgeon says the SNP would not vote for a Labour budget that proposed more spending cuts
It doesn't matter what they say, it is going to look a lot like a deal and smell a lot like a deal to the ENGLISH voters.
Picture Ed and Alex on the podium together, both saying "No Deal" but with the Scot meaning it smugly and sarcastically.0 -
HAHAHHHAFrancisUrquhart said:Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson
On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour
http://www.tom-watson.com/events
Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...
Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...
I cannot BELIEVE they have gone with this crap again.
Seriously. Labour deserve to be destroyed.0 -
Just an aside, but as an Agent and Organiser, I'm always talking to people from all parties. This year there is one recurring theme, from UKIP, cons, LDs and Labour - how much they all hate the BBC. It will be interesting to see what the post-election fallout is?0
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I suggest you make a bet with yourself after the first deceleration, write the seat number in an envelope and go to bed.RobD said:and it's going to make for an exciting night!
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The exit poll is a very different kind of poll. As I understand it they ask voters in key marginals how they voted and derive seat totals from that. I guess it might be harder this time as there could be more seats at risk of changing hands - especially given the Scotland situation so choosing where to focus the resource could be tricky.weejonnie said:Well if a 20,000 opinion poll of people who have just voted may be vague or wrong, what chance 1200 , a quarter of which haven't 'decided' or refused to say?
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Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.Sandpit said:
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.0 -
Classic "he got his benefits stopped for going to a job interview" These examples are *not* true. He is lying.0
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The problem with the proposed Tory referendum is that it will lead to 2 years of uncertainty, which is bad for business. If it takes place and the vote is to leave, then you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.JEO said:
Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.Sandpit said:
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.0 -
To the person who asked why I despised the Tories...
I don't think it would be on-topic of me to answer that. The only reason I mentioned it was to stress that what I say about why LAB look set to lose this election comes from my intellect not from my tribal feeling, which is pro-LAB.
In most sections of the population other than the very rich (including the super-rich who just park their money here, often 'of unknown sources', to use a euphemism), there's a feeling that conditions are prettyy bad and, not only that, pretty precarious. The future doesn't look rosy.
The Tory leadership are a bunch of braying posh boys, the Liberals have sucked up to them for 5 years, and as for the SNP, they've just had their main policy, their defining policy, resoundingly rejected by the electorate. You might call 55% something other than resounding, but if you take on board the sheer number of YES posters, the efficiency of the YES campaign's organisation, and despite of those factors the unprecedentedly high turnout, I am telling you there was a huge groundswell of feeling for NO.
The country is still engaged in an unwinnable conflict in Afghanistan, and a lot of the PR towards the country's own service personnel and their families is having to be done by charities.
These conditions should have determined a landslide victory for LAB on both sides of the Tweed.
The big question is why won't that happen? And the answer is that LAB is widely and rightly perceived as having little or no vision or purposefulness to offer.
They should have taken the ball and run with it in September. They should have proposed an improvement to the Union, explicitly clothed in those terms. They didn't have a clue how to.
They haven't been able even to try to counter the domination of the newsspace by press releases from corporate pollsters.
Since WW2, the Tories have only ever fallen spectacularly - in 1945 and 1997, because of a massive wave of support for LAB; in 1964 and 1974 because they were seen as unfit to govern - in the first case, because they couldn't keep their trousers up; in the second, because millions of people wanted the coalminers to kick Heath's butt out of office; and indeed there was also a 'sleaze' factor in 1997.
These conditions don't pertain now.
We are now most likely to get either a CON majority government or what we've got now, a CON-LD (majority) coalition.
I am seriously onsidering coming out of my cocoon and trying to pour some sense into Ed Miliband's head personally.
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At every single one of these Scottish Debates, the applause has been considerably louder for Nicola towards the back end than at the start.
Tonight it was the opposite for #creepyjim.0 -
who has been where today on labourdoorstp, updated version
Balls: Pudsey
Reeves: Pudsey
Burnham: Great Yarmouth, Ipswich,
Harriet: Stevenage
Umunna: Croydon Central
Khan along with BAME Labour: Harrow East, Ealing Central, Hampstead
Twigg: Cannock Chase
Perkins (Chesterfield): Stroud, Kingswood
Abbott: Harrow East, Hamsptead, Ealing Central
Lammy: Enfield Southgate, Edmonton
Sheerman: Dewsbury
Malthotra (Feltham): Ealing Central
Heidi Alexander (Lewisham East): Gloucester
John Cryer: Ilford North
Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green): Hampstead
Caerphilly MP and AM: Vale of Glamorgan
Dromey: Halesowen
Darling: Newton Mearns (wherever it is)
Creasy: Enfield North
Justine Miliband: Thurrock, Ilford North, Finchley, Ealing Central
Jack McConnell: Cumbernauld & Co, Stirling, Fife (a few days ago they dragged out even Helen Liddell)
John Middleton from Emmerdale: Pudsey
General Secretary: Brentford
Newham CLPs: Ilford North
Leicester University Labour Club: Northampton North
Unison GenSec: Cardiff Central0 -
Yes, Dave said it was his first red line at Thursday's debate, and when he made the announcement he said that if he were PM in 2017 the referendum would happen.JEO said:
Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.Sandpit said:
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.
I'd give him about 24 hours as leader if he even thought about maybe trying to think of discussing that promise with anyone after the election. He will make it a vote of confidence, as if it doesn't pass his backbenchers will have no confidence in him to pass anything else!!0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. JEO, precisely. Clegg thinks an In/Out vote is so disastrous he put it in the manifesto.0 -
You underestimate just how much of an anorak I amFlightpath1 said:
I suggest you make a bet with yourself after the first deceleration, write the seat number in an envelope and go to bed.RobD said:and it's going to make for an exciting night!
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I wonder if i may ask if someone would enlighten on this two stage opinion poll questions, which polls has it been asked in and is the the second stage based on naming the candidate/s .0
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Labour are going to have most seats.AndyJS said:Press Association list of estimated declaration times:
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
At 12:20am on the 8th0 -
Looks like there's going to be lot's of hedge betting and ARSE covering going on come Thursday night...0
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Maybe Boston & Skegness could register the biggest increase in turnout compared to 2010 when it was just 61%:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/a53.stm
Although the Electoral Commission figures give it as 64%.0 -
The BBC will argue that that means they must be doing something right. The BBC is institutionally left wing, and of course some times Labour are not left wing enough for them, but overwhelmingly the BBC is an overweeningly self important organisation that lacks the competence of its pompous aspirations.Fenman said:Just an aside, but as an Agent and Organiser, I'm always talking to people from all parties. This year there is one recurring theme, from UKIP, cons, LDs and Labour - how much they all hate the BBC. It will be interesting to see what the post-election fallout is?
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What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.0
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Completely offtopic, but 26 year old Brit Alex Dowsett yesterday smashed one of the most horrible records to attempt in cycling - the one hour sprint. His distance - 52,937m
Well done that man!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/track-cycling/11579414/Alex-Dowsett-sets-hour-record-at-Manchester-Velodrome.html0 -
They're predicting a result for Foyle at 1am.Freggles said:
Labour are going to have most seats.AndyJS said:Press Association list of estimated declaration times:
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
At 12:20am on the 8th
Must be doing triple recounts real fast there.0 -
Well I may decelerate over the late evening and then accelerate later.Flightpath1 said:
I suggest you make a bet with yourself after the first deceleration, write the seat number in an envelope and go to bed.RobD said:and it's going to make for an exciting night!
1st seat to declare : Houghton & Sunderland South. Labour safety #66 seat.
Electoralcalculus forecast (based on tories just ahead on overall seats)
Labour : 53%
Tories : 18%
UKIP : 14%
Green : 2.5%
LiB Dems: 3.5%
Almost certain Labour hold: To watch out for: Drop in Labour vote (if any): ratio of UKIP to Tories (possible anti-labour tv) : any increase in Lib Dem/ green votes as they will adversely affect Labour. If UKIP poll much stronger and labour lower then red shy-kipper effect could be in play (which could be bad for labour). If tories poll above 18 then blue-kippers coming back home.
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Yes, of course it would - and not just to voters in England but to voters and non-voters throughout Britain.Sandpit said:
It doesn't matter what they say, it is going to look a lot like a deal and smell a lot like a deal to the ENGLISH voters.
It's very 'wonky' to quote David Blunkett on how in 2010 he thought going into opposition would be best for LAB long-term. Politicians don't care about the long term. He probably ust wanted to rub some of his younger LAB colleagues' faces in it.
If the SNP hold the balance, i.e. they could bring about a majority government, or even a stable-for-at-least-a-year minority government, either by doing a deal with LAB or by doing a deal with CON, or both, then they will do it - and if they have a chance to go both ways, they will go with whoever offers them the most. Never mind what they said before the election. And never mind any intellectual arguments over the definition of what counts as a "deal" and what doesn't. None of the party leaderships have any principles. It's all advertising nowadays.
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Apparently the Tories think they have a chance of winning three seats in Scotland compared to zero for Labour. Not sure where the third one of those is going to come from...0
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Nuneaton at 1am will be a good indicationFreggles said:
Labour are going to have most seats.AndyJS said:Press Association list of estimated declaration times:
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
At 12:20am on the 8th0 -
Gib can be in or out, it's a separate jurisdiction, see Greenland, Jersey, Guernsey, Man, Faeroes, Curacao etc. They all have their own arrangements with the EU AFAIAA.logical_song said:
The problem with the proposed Tory referendum is that it will lead to 2 years of uncertainty, which is bad for business. If it takes place and the vote is to leave, then you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.JEO said:
Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.Sandpit said:
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.
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The first stage is a general question about voting intention, the second asking the respondent to think specifically about his or her own constituency.NoEasyDay said:I wonder if i may ask if someone would enlighten on this two stage opinion poll questions, which polls has it been asked in and is the the second stage based on naming the candidate/s .
Ashcroft's single constituency polls often found a significant difference in the answers given to the two questions, although (some would say controversially) he did not mention candidates by name, even after the nominations closed.0 -
That would all depend on what we choose to do after we leave the EU. If we remain in the EEA, then that is not necessarily the case. While I think being pro-business is a good thing for governments, it can not override the principle of self-determination. We are run by the people, not by corporations.logical_song said:
The problem with the proposed Tory referendum is that it will lead to 2 years of uncertainty, which is bad for business. If it takes place and the vote is to leave, then you can say goodbye to Scotland and Gibraltar.JEO said:
Yes, they did. That is why Nick Clegg's mocking of Cameron for changing position in the Q&A session on the BBC was completely hypocritical. Clegg was against a referendum, then for a referendum, then against it again. It is very similar to Labour over the Treaty of Lisbon. Neither party is trustworthy on the matter of the European Union. Only the Conservatives will deliver the referendum promised.Sandpit said:
Didn't the LibDems have an EU referendum in their manifesto only 5 years ago?JEO said:
I do not see how supporting the British public's right to self-determination makes any party a 'b!tch' of another. EU supporters putting European integration above democratic principles is why the EU has got into its current mess in the first place.surbiton said:The party of Europe, the Liberal Democrats, will now acquiesce to a referendum being called on Europe.
Where has this proud party come down to ? Now just a Tory b!tch. So why will they not be in a coalition with UKIP.
What will be sad is if the Liberal Democrats try to gerrymander the electorate to win the referendum. Thankfully the Conservatives would never acquiesce to such a thing.0 -
bad ???? bad ???? perhaps more realistically what would be an anti-climax?
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
What'll be a bad result for SNP on Thursday? Given polls pointing to taking all 59 seats how far short can they be? My suggestion: 10 max0 -
Sure, and if it wasn't for the SDP-LIB alliance in 1983, a LAB landslide would have booted Thatcher out. And if it wasn't for Bloody Sunday in 1972, the IRA would have crumbled away. But if my auntie was my uncle...Freggles said:What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.
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Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.
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Mike would never troll the Nats, ever.Scrapheap_as_was said:bad ???? bad ???? perhaps more realistically what would be an anti-climax?
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
What'll be a bad result for SNP on Thursday? Given polls pointing to taking all 59 seats how far short can they be? My suggestion: 10 max
He would never get any pleasure from it, honest.0 -
49 seats. From 6Scrapheap_as_was said:bad ???? bad ???? perhaps more realistically what would be an anti-climax?
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
What'll be a bad result for SNP on Thursday? Given polls pointing to taking all 59 seats how far short can they be? My suggestion: 10 max
Clearly an AWFUL result.0 -
the stonemason revealed?
Mike Smithson retweeted
David Axelrod@davidaxelrod·10 mins10 minutes ago Chicago, IL
I can see why the Tories are throwing stones over the idea of putting manifesto pledges on display, given the many they haven't kept!0 -
Pretty awesome cyclist Dowsett, has some good wins in his Palmares. He's also haemophiliac which means cycling is extra dangerous for him.Sandpit said:Completely offtopic, but 26 year old Brit Alex Dowsett yesterday smashed one of the most horrible records to attempt in cycling - the one hour sprint. His distance - 52,937m
Well done that man!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/track-cycling/11579414/Alex-Dowsett-sets-hour-record-at-Manchester-Velodrome.html
I'm not convinced Wiggins will beat that on his attempt later this year.
Wiggins should have gone for it the day after the Olympics when he would have set a completely unsurpassable record. It's a shame.0 -
Nuneaton at 1am.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.
Though, Castle Point at 2am might give an indication of how well or badly UKIP are going to do, ditto Thurrock and Basildon & East Thurrock at 3am0 -
If I get time I'll be compiling a little spreadsheet of model results to compare with actual results early on in the night. There's the Ashcroft polling, of course, but uk-elect has a forecast that gives actual vote number forecasts which will be good for testing as well.bigjohnowls said:
Nuneaton at 1am will be a good indicationFreggles said:
Labour are going to have most seats.AndyJS said:Press Association list of estimated declaration times:
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
At 12:20am on the 8th
Election Forecast and the YouGov Nowcast will be other good ones to include especially as YouGov currently have a Labour lead on seats0 -
Whatever happened to Mick Pork?0
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David Cameron and Nick Clegg are preparing for talks on a new Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition within hours of Thursday’s general election, if the Tories win the most seats in a hung parliament.
http://on.ft.com/1I5pYsa0 -
Totally agreed Dair. Such a shame that no main uk party leader comes close to the skill of sturgeon.Dair said:At every single one of these Scottish Debates, the applause has been considerably louder for Nicola towards the back end than at the start.
Tonight it was the opposite for #creepyjim.0 -
John_N said:
Sure, and if it wasn't for the SDP-LIB alliance in 1983, a LAB landslide would have booted Thatcher out. And if it wasn't for Bloody Sunday in 1972, the IRA would have crumbled away. But if my auntie was my uncle...Freggles said:What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.
Not comparable.
Nobody was saying "Ed is going to get monstered for not being Left-Wing enough, but he'll do alright in English marginals".
If the likes of Dan Hodges are right they'll be right for all the wrong reasons.0 -
He's scratching aroundisam said:Whatever happened to Mick Pork?
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@TheScreamingEagles
Nick and Dave might, but will their parties take any notice?
(This election has more red ink than my bank statements)0 -
Whichever one of quite a few which declare at 2am.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
Ah. Well, I'll be at a count until about 5am anyway so I may not get a chance to check, but I suppose word will filter through.Dair said:
Whichever one of quite a few which declare at 2am.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
Just a quick question, who can attend counts and how do we find out where they are?kle4 said:
Ah. Well, I'll be at a count until about 5am anyway so I may not get a chance to check, but I suppose word will filter through.Dair said:
Whichever one of quite a few which declare at 2am.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
Frustrating! Thats one way to put it.Freggles said:What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.
It is still head exploding stuff trying to follow the Labour collapse in Scotland. But it is all the fault of Labour no one else. The tory vote is holding up. The polls will look stupid if it does not happen on the day. But Labour look to have totally failed to make their tory bogeyman ploy stick.
But the big question is, just as Scotland reject Labour will England flock to them to set up being exploited by a SNP/Lab coalition? Will moderate labour voters be so gullible? Or will they think, 'My head hurts! I'm staying at home.' ?0 -
If there is a recount at Nuneaton, we are going to be in for a very long nail-chewing few hours.0
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By 2am we will know probably Scotland will pan out (the Fife seats along with Rutherglen and also Lanark should give a good steer) and with seats like Eastleigh and Thornbury & Yate also likely to declare we will begin to know the incumbency effect in Libdem seats.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
They couldn't afford my fees.Scrapheap_as_was said:why have none of these academics just not thought to contact Jack W?
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Each one of them has scared the crap out of me with the raucous baying after Murphy's statements early on. The BBC actually cut to the audience a few times during it this time and it was clear only a handful of people at the back right (stage view) were doing the clapping for Muprhy (and where Campbell always went to for questions/points from the audience).hunchman said:
Totally agreed Dair. Such a shame that no main uk party leader comes close to the skill of sturgeon.Dair said:At every single one of these Scottish Debates, the applause has been considerably louder for Nicola towards the back end than at the start.
Tonight it was the opposite for #creepyjim.
Meanwhile Sturgeon had to win the audience over which as usual she excelled at, this probably demotivated the Labour cacklers resulting in them losing enthusiasm for their Murphy adoration.0 -
Anyone can apply to attend but it is somewhat easier if you are "sponsored" by an allowed observer (a political party and a number of other national and international organisations).Chameleon said:
Just a quick question, who can attend counts and how do we find out where they are?kle4 said:
Ah. Well, I'll be at a count until about 5am anyway so I may not get a chance to check, but I suppose word will filter through.Dair said:
Whichever one of quite a few which declare at 2am.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
playing to segregated full houses in Brum.FrancisUrquhart said:Join Steve Coogan & Tom Watson
On the '72 hours to save the NHS' GOTV Tour
http://www.tom-watson.com/events
Don't miss it, it will be a cracker....Monkey Tennis?...ahhhha...
Only 72hrs to save the NHS...where have we heard that before...
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Thankyou, not as clear cut as I had hoped. Ihad hoped they had asked "and turning to to your own constituency the candidates are, blah, blah. I wont bet bet quite as much as i had planned. In america i think they call this leading the witness.Sandpit said:
The first stage is a general question about voting intention, the second asking the respondent to think specifically about his or her own constituency.NoEasyDay said:I wonder if i may ask if someone would enlighten on this two stage opinion poll questions, which polls has it been asked in and is the the second stage based on naming the candidate/s .
Ashcroft's single constituency polls often found a significant difference in the answers given to the two questions, although (some would say controversially) he did not mention candidates by name, even after the nominations closed.
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You also foresaw a Yes win.SeanT said:
"Largely unforeseen"?Freggles said:What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.
*cough*
As I said on this site, four days BEFORE the indyref - "following a narrow NO vote the SNP will benefit from a huge sympathy vote at the next GE, as patriotic Scots voters say a guilty sorry for voting NO"
It was quite foreseeable. I foresaw it. Apparently DavidL did, too.
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Is the job of Labour's most expensive advisor tweeting from Chicago? If this is the sort of value for money Labour gets, it explains why they overspent so much in the last decade.Scrapheap_as_was said:the stonemason revealed?
Mike Smithson retweeted
David Axelrod@davidaxelrod·10 mins10 minutes ago Chicago, IL
I can see why the Tories are throwing stones over the idea of putting manifesto pledges on display, given the many they haven't kept!0 -
The first Scottish one from anywhere will be pretty interesting.kle4 said:
Can anyone pinpoint the first really significant declaration we will be getting, a tight marginal or something?Dair said:They really, really don't get it about a Second Referendum on this Debate and in their campaigns.
Do they block out the polls mentally? Rely on the Daily Records Comfort Reporting of questions about another Referendum?
It's actually getting moronic. They are gifting votes to the SNP and it can only be based on none of the other parties have a clue about Scotland. It's also insulting to the electorate to think they can't understand how big a Baseball Bat not ruling out another Referendum is.0 -
Regarding this drink on Thursday night/Friday morning...
Are people really going to stay up until 6am in a boozer for the election.. I would kind of like to but would almost certainly drop off. How many are thinking of going?0 -
If Nuneaton is at recount territory, Labour are going to lose badly imo.
They should piss up here.0 -
Mr. JEO, anyone who decides 8'6" of engraved limestone is a good alternative to a pledge card is not to be trusted with spending money.0
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and a No win and a Yes win and a No win ........................TheScreamingEagles said:
You also foresaw a Yes win.SeanT said:
"Largely unforeseen"?Freggles said:What's frustrating is that if it weren't for the largely unforeseen SNP surge (hat tip to Antifrank and others) we would be headed for a small Labour majority, or at worst a Lab-Lib coalition.The wisdom of a lot of commentators who have said Ed can't win would be seriously called into question. But the fact is in the fight against the Tories he's doing much better than they all said.
*cough*
As I said on this site, four days BEFORE the indyref - "following a narrow NO vote the SNP will benefit from a huge sympathy vote at the next GE, as patriotic Scots voters say a guilty sorry for voting NO"
It was quite foreseeable. I foresaw it. Apparently DavidL did, too.0 -
Sixty Years of Swing with Peter Snow beginning now on Parlament Channel.0
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True though
I can see why the Tories are throwing stones over the idea of putting manifesto pledges on display, given the many they haven't kept0 -
Do we have another yougov to come in an hour or so?0
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Yes at 10.30pmasjohnstone said:Do we have another yougov to come in an hour or so?
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