politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet
In processing yesterday’s round of CON-LAB marginals from Lord Ashcroft I came across the above apparent oddity in the Croydon Central survey. Its 2010 LD switcher total to the Tories is totally out of line with just about anything we have seen in his constituency polling.
Comments
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Not all Lib Dems were reds on holiday like yourself Mike. Why be surprised that some areas may see more switch to blue than red? Isn't that the whole purpose of polling local areas ... to detect local differences?0
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Is there any way of finding out the party leaders planned constituency visits in the last few days of the campaign. May give a sign of how they think things are going.0
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I'm not a red on holiday and I very much resent your assertion.Philip_Thompson said:Not all Lib Dems were reds on holiday like yourself Mike. Why be surprised that some areas may see more switch to blue than red? Isn't that the whole purpose of polling local areas ... to detect local differences?
I just follow polling patterns and find this odd - particularly as there was a normal distribution of 2010 LDs in previous polls from the seat.
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When you commission as many polls as Lord Ashcroft commissions, a few will be outliers. This may be one of them.
Picking outliers, of course, is as dangerous as relying on polls unblinkingly.0 -
Julian Brazier nearly fell off the stage during a hustings in Canterbury today.0
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FPT all this Royal talk reminded me of the attempt to kidnap Princess Anne in 1974. What a shocker that was. I assume Ian Ball is still in a looney bin. http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/20/newsid_2524000/2524489.stm0
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Could be 2010 voters misremembering they actually voted for Pelling in 2010 thinking he was the 'not blue but not Lab' guy therefore a LD.
Add Tory Pelling to the Tory score in 2010 and this is about as safe as Battersea from the starting point.
Tory hold.0 -
Plus Lab switchers from LD is very much in the likely range of others0
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I see there is another usurper in line for Prince Franz of Bavrias throne.0
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In October 2014 Ashcroft found an LD switcher split of LAB 45% to CON 11%.
That was probably an outlier as well.0 -
How can Gavin Barwell possibly lose with our own John Loony as one of his key campaign team?0
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Croydon Central-LAB gain.0
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Yes, Barwell should be fine ... so long as JL doesn't do any door-knocking for him.JohnO said:How can Gavin Barwell possibly lose with our own John Loony as one of his key campaign team?
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Alternative history....
If The male prominence in line of succession, now removed, had been removed in Victorias reign, she would have been succeeded by Victoria 2nd, her eldest daughter, and the crown would then have passed to....,,, Kaiser Wilhelm! How different a world we would now be in but for that quirk of succession.0 -
I know quite a few constituents from Croydon Central and there is very much a stop Labour feeling there. Quite a few of the people I know were considering UKIP, but are now very much back in the blue camp and are extremely motivated to vote.
Think you might have done your money Mike. Ironically, it's one the 40 Con bets I had yesterday (fpt)0 -
Mr. Woolie, interesting post on succession.
Did you know Edward III was offered the crown of Holy Roman Emperor?
He declined.0 -
Lab GOTV in London is brilliant.
CON GOTV here is 1 or 2 people going around.(Given Barwell is a minister,maybe he has more support)
Lab will get it I think.0 -
I'm sure the new royal princess will have a wonderful life, but sadly not all children are so fortunate. It's very sad to see that the West Midlands Police released a report today showing that a similar situation to the Rotherham abuse has also been happening in Birmingham and the Blackcountry. Let's hope we don't see any more of these terrible cases.0
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But would that marriage have taken place? Even if it had, there might have been better obstetric care at Wilhelm’s II’s birthdyedwoolie said:Alternative history....
If The male prominence in line of succession, now removed, had been removed in Victorias reign, she would have been succeeded by Victoria 2nd, her eldest daughter, and the crown would then have passed to....,,, Kaiser Wilhelm! How different a world we would now be in but for that quirk of succession.
Incidentally were there really NO males who could have moved in front of Victoria?0 -
I was at university with Gavin Barwell, and liked him a lot. I hope he keeps his seat.0
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Off-topic, a couple of thoughts on the football so far.
As a Boro fan very happy to see Bournemouth as champions - by far the best team in the division this season.
Newcastle ... ha, ha, ha!0 -
All Con leaflets have been posted here indicating they haven`t got the ground support here.
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.0 -
Certainly out in force today in Ealing Central and Acton.SMukesh said:Lab GOTV in London is brilliant.
CON GOTV here is 1 or 2 people going around.(Given Barwell is a minister,maybe he has more support)
Lab will get it I think.0 -
Ashcroft poll on CC was truly odd.0
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My wife and I have had targeted and very different leaflets sent from Labour and LDs. The LD operation appears to be more sophisticated. Haven't noticed much in the way of LD canvassers.SMukesh said:All Con leaflets have been posted here indicating they haven`t got the ground support here.
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.
Labour had a big operation to canvass the road last weekend including their candidate. First time they have been sighted in 12 years. Candidate appeared to be personable, (I resisted temptation to be negative or offer her a cup of tea from labour Immigration pledge mug). Met the Tory candidate as well, but she was canvassing on her own, almost on her home ground, as she was waiting for dinner to cook. Guess more effort is in Bristol NW.0 -
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/BonferroniCorrection.htmlantifrank said:When you commission as many polls as Lord Ashcroft commissions, a few will be outliers. This may be one of them.
Picking outliers, of course, is as dangerous as relying on polls unblinkingly.
(although, to cover my arse, I'm not sure if that applies here. I assume it apples to multiple studies of the same static population, not multiple studies of a changing population)
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6/4 is a great price.Labour will gain Croydon Central0
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lolMarkHopkins said:
Reminiscent of this masterpiece by JohnLoony;
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg0 -
Don't know if mentioned but there is a new Welsh Poll.
YouGov/Plaid Cymru (Wales)
CON 26 (=)
LAB 39 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
PC 13 (+1)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 3 (-1)
28-30th
Very little change on 2010, for Lab and Con. Lots of Tory activity in Cardiff North today, they look to be hoping for a shock.0 -
Welcome back, Miss C.
Wales looks weird [polling-wise]. Barely any movement, despite a coalition in Westminster and Labour's Welsh NHS not necessarily being the most glorious example of state healthcare in the world. Surprised Plaid aren't picking up a bit more.0 -
The Croydon numbers did stick out as a bit odd. Unless all the other polls are wrong labour is doing much better in London than elsewhere, to have gone from a 5% con - lab swing in March to only a 1% a month later seems unlikely. Gavin Barwell does seem to be running a good campaign but there is a limit to how much effect that can have. What is noticeable here and in Wirral South is how much the non Lab / Con numbers have dropped. In 2010 and last autumn the total non Lab / Con numbers were around 27% now they are down to 15%. It seems reasonable to assume this will be happening in most other marginal seats0
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I did.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Woolie, interesting post on succession.
Did you know Edward III was offered the crown of Holy Roman Emperor?
He declined.
Here are the alternative current potential claimants to the crown
If we assume Edward IV was illegitimate (per the C4 documentary) - Simon Abney-Hastings, 15th Earl of Loudon
The line descended from John of Gaunt goes to David Somerset, Duke of Beaufort
The line from Mary Queen of France whom Henry VIII had declared to be the successors if his children failed to produce heirs should have led now to Lady Caroline Ogilvy who has married into the Ogilvy family which stands ca 40th in line in any case. Or if you follow the senior Stanley line (placed below the Seymours by Henry) you get to Teresa Freeman-Grenvillie
The Jacobite/Stuart claim now lies with Franz, Duke of Bavaria
the absolute Primogentitre after Victoria that would have led to Wlhelm would now be with Friederike Thyra Marion Wilhelmine Dorothea Von Der Osten
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Yet further proof, were it needed, of the grit, determination and boundless spirit of the morris dancer:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-325569300 -
I like that it's not 'to stop Labour' or 'to stop Joe Blogs the Labour candidate', but 'Ed Miliband's candidate'.MarkHopkins said:0 -
I live in Croydon, South not Central but I'm a member of the UKIP branch that covers both seats.
There are very few Lib/Dem voters in Croydon Central, I believe that the New Addington ward is one of the worst wards in the whole country for them.
There is a history of in fighting between Tories there, the MP Andrew Pelling elected in 2005 with a majority of just 75 was effectively sacked a year later, he was arrested for allegedly beating his wife but was never charged, the real reason he was removed is a mystery.
Pelling then sat as an independent and stood against the current MP Gavin Barwell in 2010, he didn't do very well though and later joined the Labour party he is now a Labour councillor.
There have been other goings on in Croydon Central as well, the former council leader later minority group leader was overlooked for the safe Croydon South seat and later removed for trying to claim his full councillor's allowance.
A longstanding councillor and assistant to Barwell was deselected a year after being the borough mayor and there have been other cases of shock selections and deselections among councillors and candidates.
The Labour party seems much more stable and I agree that 6/4 about Labour winning Central is cracking value, if you are able to get it, though it seems too good to be true and may be a bookie error.
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That was EPICPong said:
lolMarkHopkins said:
Reminiscent of this masterpiece by JohnLoony;
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg0 -
Mr. Woolie, I'd be surprised to a rather great extent if any of those made a serious challenge to the incumbents, though.
The Royal Family has an incumbency bonus of which even Liberal Democrats are jealous.0 -
Indeed, I can only imagine the coalition and Labour management of Welsh services cancel each other out in terms of impact on opinion.Morris_Dancer said:Welcome back, Miss C.
Wales looks weird [polling-wise]. Barely any movement, despite a coalition in Westminster and Labour's Welsh NHS not necessarily being the most glorious example of state healthcare in the world. Surprised Plaid aren't picking up a bit more.
Plaid are just not thought about as an alternative outside the Welsh speaking heartlands, they are a Labour Welsh language pressure group at best.
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Mr Dancer, in 1437 the throne of Bohemia was offered to my ancestor Sir William Tyndall after the death of the Holy Roman Emperor Sigismund. He declined the offer and instead the throne was offered to the next legitimate claimants - the Hapsburgs.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Woolie, interesting post on succession.
Did you know Edward III was offered the crown of Holy Roman Emperor?
He declined.0 -
There were. I was merely musing on the change to absolute Primogeniture occurring after Vikki took the crown.OldKingCole said:
But would that marriage have taken place? Even if it had, there might have been better obstetric care at Wilhelm’s II’s birthdyedwoolie said:Alternative history....
If The male prominence in line of succession, now removed, had been removed in Victorias reign, she would have been succeeded by Victoria 2nd, her eldest daughter, and the crown would then have passed to....,,, Kaiser Wilhelm! How different a world we would now be in but for that quirk of succession.
Incidentally were there really NO males who could have moved in front of Victoria?
There are various claimants that could legitimately take the reins. Probably the Ogilvys have the most robust background, the Stuart claim is also very sound, but very much removed from the UK now0 -
Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.0 -
Mr. Tyndall, perhaps unsurprisingly, I did not know that, but it is fascinating.
I dare say if the Tyndalls had taken up the role the Holy Roman Empire would still be with us
Miss C, got to admit, I think the double signage makes no bloody sense whatsoever. Are there more than a dozen people who speak Welsh but not English?0 -
Were you up for Caroline Ogilvy? ;-)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Woolie, I'd be surprised to a rather great extent if any of those made a serious challenge to the incumbents, though.
The Royal Family has an incumbency bonus of which even Liberal Democrats are jealous.
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I would like Leanne in the Labour Party though as any Minister.tessyC said:
Indeed, I can only imagine the coalition and Labour management of Welsh services cancel each other out in terms of impact on opinion.Morris_Dancer said:Welcome back, Miss C.
Wales looks weird [polling-wise]. Barely any movement, despite a coalition in Westminster and Labour's Welsh NHS not necessarily being the most glorious example of state healthcare in the world. Surprised Plaid aren't picking up a bit more.
Plaid are just not thought about as an alternative outside the Welsh speaking heartlands, they are a Labour Welsh language pressure group at best.0 -
By the same token, the number of LD-Lab switchers in Wirral West looks v.high. So perhaps Ester McVey still has a good chance.0
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Mr. Woolie, I'd want to have a look at her first...0
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If you think they're similar I think you've rather missed the point of why the Barnsley one is funny.Pong said:
lolMarkHopkins said:
Reminiscent of this masterpiece by JohnLoony;
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
UKIP have clearly missed a trick there by not horribly warping the scale.0 -
I like to think I would be a firm but just potentate.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyndall, perhaps unsurprisingly, I did not know that, but it is fascinating.
I dare say if the Tyndalls had taken up the role the Holy Roman Empire would still be with us
Miss C, got to admit, I think the double signage makes no bloody sense whatsoever. Are there more than a dozen people who speak Welsh but not English?0 -
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Does any one know which LD sEats and targets are still being actively worked and which have been abandoned0
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Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.0 -
I give up.maaarsh said:
If you think they're similar I think you've rather missed the point of why the Barnsley one is funny.Pong said:
lolMarkHopkins said:
Reminiscent of this masterpiece by JohnLoony;
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg0 -
Maybe it's just more efficient - and you can target leaflet drops more effectively by post. And then send your volunteers to where they are needed as canvassers. In any case, don't all parties get one free postal delivery?SMukesh said:All Con leaflets have been posted here indicating they haven`t got the ground support here.
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.
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And 30% is (almost) the same size as 29%. That's one seriously distorted chart...logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Can't help but feel the Tories need some big polls tonight.
Very little time left.0 -
Ed Davey has sent me at least six different envelopes. Two arrived after I had already voted.JohnLilburne said:
Maybe it's just more efficient - and you can target leaflet drops more effectively by post. And then send your volunteers to where they are needed as canvassers. In any case, don't all parties get one free postal delivery?SMukesh said:All Con leaflets have been posted here indicating they haven`t got the ground support here.
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.
I have not seen any door step activity here in Surbiton.0 -
They didn't in '92 and don't now.0
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Maybe, 0 is 20.ukelect said:
And 30% is (almost) the same size as 29%. That's one seriously distorted chart...logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.0 -
Wasn’t there a cricketer offered the throne of Albania about 100 years ago?Richard_Tyndall said:
I like to think I would be a firm but just potentate.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyndall, perhaps unsurprisingly, I did not know that, but it is fascinating.
I dare say if the Tyndalls had taken up the role the Holy Roman Empire would still be with us
Miss C, got to admit, I think the double signage makes no bloody sense whatsoever. Are there more than a dozen people who speak Welsh but not English?0 -
Why would UKIP design it like that? Surely they'd want UKIP v Lab to be very close with Con quite some distance behind?ukelect said:
And 30% is (almost) the same size as 29%. That's one seriously distorted chart...logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
What if some of the Tories vote Labour ?logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Nichomar.
Mr. IOS, perhaps. So do Labour. The Conservatives are ahead in most polls.0 -
KIng Cole, CB Fry?0
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Morris
You win by one then dave is gone!
Tories can't afford a draw.0 -
Did we all see that Brand & Milband chat has the 'best bits' held back to be released on monday....
I really can wait...0 -
I'm sorry if my view of it upsets you, I don't want you to resent it. That was my interpretation from your thread headers for the last couple of years it seems to me you're a red ex-LD. It seems to me that you want and hope for a change of government now. And it seems to me that your vote swap arrangement is one that allows you to vote red.MikeSmithson said:
I'm not a red on holiday and I very much resent your assertion.Philip_Thompson said:Not all Lib Dems were reds on holiday like yourself Mike. Why be surprised that some areas may see more switch to blue than red? Isn't that the whole purpose of polling local areas ... to detect local differences?
I just follow polling patterns and find this odd - particularly as there was a normal distribution of 2010 LDs in previous polls from the seat.
If that's wrong, I apologise. Don't want to upset you.0 -
it's also all in tory blue to imply a message to tories from tories.logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:
new politics or are they the lib dems mk 2?0 -
surbiton said:
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.
Croyden is not poorer than Kilburn, which is the Labour part of the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency.surbiton said:
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.
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Slightly surprised at that, I would have thought the LDs would be fighting to keep the seat, or do they think it is safe?surbiton said:
Ed Davey has sent me at least six different envelopes. Two arrived after I had already voted.JohnLilburne said:
Maybe it's just more efficient - and you can target leaflet drops more effectively by post. And then send your volunteers to where they are needed as canvassers. In any case, don't all parties get one free postal delivery?SMukesh said:All Con leaflets have been posted here indicating they haven`t got the ground support here.
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.
I have not seen any door step activity here in Surbiton.
Little activity here but it is a Con shoo-in so not surprising, and no campaigning for the council either where there is a little more to fight for. (NE Hants/Hart DC). But I guess all the activists are on GE work.
I am surprised how many people I know now vote postally. I quite like the ritual of walking up to the polling station and casting my vote, also it gives me to the end of the campaign to make my decision although I think I have now decided who to vote for in the locals, in the GE there was never any chance it wouldn't be Tory. I have voted postally a couple of times recently, because I was away on holiday, but always did it as a one-off. I suppose it is good if you don't know if you will want to go away on business at short notice.
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People on UK Polling Report (obvious caveats apply) are talking up the chance of Plaid Cymru gaining Ceredigion off the Lib Dems.0
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Ed Davey used to be my MP, and I voted for him in 1997. However where I used to live is now in Richmond Park I think.surbiton said:
Ed Davey has sent me at least six different envelopes. Two arrived after I had already voted.JohnLilburne said:
Maybe it's just more efficient - and you can target leaflet drops more effectively by post. And then send your volunteers to where they are needed as canvassers. In any case, don't all parties get one free postal delivery?SMukesh said:All Con leaflets have been posted here indicating they haven`t got the ground support here.
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.
I have not seen any door step activity here in Surbiton.
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Ah, yes. Thanks. Incidentally, and wildly O/T how do you feel about the F1 site now?Morris_Dancer said:KIng Cole, CB Fry?
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King Cole, I've generally avoided it since first subjecting my eyeballs and mind to the horrific idiocy which it has become. Removing so much useful information is just stupid.
If you like, I could check it now.0 -
This leak looks pretty intentional to me, I think the SNP are playing with the DT:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11578193/snp-labour-coalition-government-deal.html
This "leak" looks pretty much like the start of the SNP's reassurance campaign targeted at E&W Labour supporters, assuring them that the SNP will work to ensure they get a proper Labour government.
Having spent 6 months in denial the MSM finally seems to be reaching the acceptance phase of the reality of the SNP's position in Scotland. The MSM denial phase I can understand, the bookies who allowed themselves to be slaughtered by many of us on this site have no excuse, all they had to do was send a questionnaire to their hundreds of staff across Scotland and that would have confirmed that the SNP surge was real.0 -
Very interesting stats.
Ignoring the LD to Con switchers in Croydon Central as an outlier, I see that the % of 2010 LDs switching to Lab and Con are an average of 40% and 20% respectively.
If I put that assumption into my model, Croydon Central comes out as Con 18,334, Lab 18,308. An evens bet.0 -
i've missed 'don' this campaign.0
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6/4 Gone, Ladbrokes now 11/10 but Oddschecker has 11/8 available with Betfred, still great value.0
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I’m seeing someone tomorrow who would be very interested in comments.Morris_Dancer said:King Cole, I've generally avoided it since first subjecting my eyeballs and mind to the horrific idiocy which it has become. Removing so much useful information is just stupid.
If you like, I could check it now.0 -
Mr. Scrapheap, aye, he always had good insights.0
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Also worth remembering that the two seats Labour are realistically chasing are in Cardiff, where the local (Labour) Council is embroiled in dysfunction and disarray, while having to implement severe cuts.tessyC said:
Indeed, I can only imagine the coalition and Labour management of Welsh services cancel each other out in terms of impact on opinion.Morris_Dancer said:Welcome back, Miss C.
Wales looks weird [polling-wise]. Barely any movement, despite a coalition in Westminster and Labour's Welsh NHS not necessarily being the most glorious example of state healthcare in the world. Surprised Plaid aren't picking up a bit more.
Plaid are just not thought about as an alternative outside the Welsh speaking heartlands, they are a Labour Welsh language pressure group at best.
Cardiff Council's most recent action has been to recognise Somaliland.
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England all out this morning (W Indies time) for not a lot more.0
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It's very reasonable to have a cut-off between zero and the lowest bar so you can see the differences more clearly. What makes no sense is that the gap between 30% and 37% is a lot more than six times 30% and 29%.logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
It's ironic that the virtue, although yet unproven, of local polling is to detect local variations - yet when it happens people question the polls which are different assuming they are wrong. It's equally plausible that the 'rogue' has successfully picked up a local difference or the early signs of a more general change. Patterns are useful until we become their slaves. clearly reviewing the posts our left-wing posters are desperate to rubbish that particular poll. Methinks they do protest too much. As for Battersea I lived there for many years and it will be a comfortable hold. It is very different from it's north London comparators and demographics will keep it blue.0
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Many luvvies vote Labour !PeterC said:surbiton said:
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.
Croyden is not poorer than Kilburn, which is the Labour part of the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency.surbiton said:
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.0 -
Got a political leaflet through the door today.. .
"YOU NEED MORE THAN TWO POLIICIES TO GOVERN A COUNTRY
Here are some of the extreme policies proposed by UKIP's one man team"
It then prints 5 quotes by Farage "Abolish the NHS" "Cut the State Pension" "Scrap Racial Discrimination Law" "Get rid of Maternity Laws" "Pay Women Less than Men"
Only seen one side of it so far, I'll check the other in a a minute to see which party it is from0 -
They have not got a brain , maybe.Chameleon said:
Why would UKIP design it like that? Surely they'd want UKIP v Lab to be very close with Con quite some distance behind?ukelect said:
And 30% is (almost) the same size as 29%. That's one seriously distorted chart...logical_song said:
And look at the barchart 37% is twice 30%.MarkHopkins said:0 -
Not in Croydon.surbiton said:
Many luvvies vote Labour !PeterC said:surbiton said:
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.
Croyden is not poorer than Kilburn, which is the Labour part of the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency.surbiton said:
Croydon is poorer.Greenwich_Floater said:
Croydon and Hampstead are very different places - might as well be 250 miles apartsurbiton said:Croydon Central was the one [ alongwith Battersea ] which did not make sense.
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.0 -
Yesnichomar said:Does any one know which LD sEats and targets are still being actively worked and which have been abandoned
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I was at university with Andrew Pelling. I hope Gavin Barwell keeps his seat....rcs1000 said:I was at university with Gavin Barwell, and liked him a lot. I hope he keeps his seat.
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Another test match:OldKingCole said:England all out this morning (W Indies time) for not a lot more.
BAN 332 and 555/6
PAK 628
Drawn.0 -
Broad has similar problems to Trott when batting.OldKingCole said:England all out this morning (W Indies time) for not a lot more.
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[Eedit] reportedly those "secret plans ... documents circulated internally" are the material made available to about 100,000+ members on their website.calum said:This leak looks pretty intentional to me, I think the SNP are playing with the DT:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11578193/snp-labour-coalition-government-deal.html
This "leak" looks pretty much like the start of the SNP's reassurance campaign targeted at E&W Labour supporters, assuring them that the SNP will work to ensure they get a proper Labour government.
Having spent 6 months in denial the MSM finally seems to be reaching the acceptance phase of the reality of the SNP's position in Scotland. The MSM denial phase I can understand, the bookies who allowed themselves to be slaughtered by many of us on this site have no excuse, all they had to do was send a questionnaire to their hundreds of staff across Scotland and that would have confirmed that the SNP surge was real.
Plus the DT story has more than a whiff of ursid faeces in a Forestry Commission plantation ...
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Mr. Smithson, that's a keeper.
Another good recent one was BBC moron Richard Bilton, who was on a boat covering the Libyan immigration story, and who helpfully informed us that the Mediterranean was a large area of water.
[The same clown asked a Greek emergency services officer whether "It was dangerous" whilst looking at a forest fire, doing a story about forest fires ravaging Greece. On a more serious note, when interviewing the mother of Rhys, the Liverpool boy shot dead by a 'gangster' fool, Bilton displayed sledgehammer sensitivity, enquiring "It's affected you that much?" after the poor lad's mother said she was moving house. Whoever would have thought a mother would be so upset over her primary school-aged son getting murdered...].
King Cole, having a look now.
Well, practice, qualifying and race results for 2015 all appear to be up [I think it was only race before, but I didn't make notes, so I could be wrong].
However, results appear only to go back to 2014, and then only race results are available.
There's a weird yawning chasm of space between the teams/drivers and points in the title race pages, so unless you're looking at the top or bottom you could easily misread [link below].
http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/championship/results/2015-constructor-standings.html
Checked the Spanish GP page. Timing still only in Spanish time [old site had a nice toggle button so I could see what it was in UK-time].
The major problem, of inexplicably removing all the historical times and title results, remains. Why that's been axed I do not know.
If you have any questions, let me know.0 -
Another thing that has been really screwed up is the CricInfo app, it is now almost completely useless and I can't make it give me push-updates on England matches. Today I see the website has followed suit. Thing is, I am not sure there is anything out there that will give me the same depth of information which is still there on CricInfo although devilishly hard to find.OldKingCole said:
I’m seeing someone tomorrow who would be very interested in comments.Morris_Dancer said:King Cole, I've generally avoided it since first subjecting my eyeballs and mind to the horrific idiocy which it has become. Removing so much useful information is just stupid.
If you like, I could check it now.
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