Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet
In processing yesterday’s round of CON-LAB marginals from Lord Ashcroft I came across the above apparent oddity in the Croydon Central survey. Its 2010 LD switcher total to the Tories is totally out of line with just about anything we have seen in his constituency polling.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I just follow polling patterns and find this odd - particularly as there was a normal distribution of 2010 LDs in previous polls from the seat.
Picking outliers, of course, is as dangerous as relying on polls unblinkingly.
Add Tory Pelling to the Tory score in 2010 and this is about as safe as Battersea from the starting point.
Tory hold.
That was probably an outlier as well.
If The male prominence in line of succession, now removed, had been removed in Victorias reign, she would have been succeeded by Victoria 2nd, her eldest daughter, and the crown would then have passed to....,,, Kaiser Wilhelm! How different a world we would now be in but for that quirk of succession.
Think you might have done your money Mike. Ironically, it's one the 40 Con bets I had yesterday (fpt)
Did you know Edward III was offered the crown of Holy Roman Emperor?
He declined.
CON GOTV here is 1 or 2 people going around.(Given Barwell is a minister,maybe he has more support)
Lab will get it I think.
Incidentally were there really NO males who could have moved in front of Victoria?
As a Boro fan very happy to see Bournemouth as champions - by far the best team in the division this season.
Newcastle ... ha, ha, ha!
But it is targeted given that the husband and wife living next-door received different leaflets from the Cons.
Labour had a big operation to canvass the road last weekend including their candidate. First time they have been sighted in 12 years. Candidate appeared to be personable, (I resisted temptation to be negative or offer her a cup of tea from labour Immigration pledge mug). Met the Tory candidate as well, but she was canvassing on her own, almost on her home ground, as she was waiting for dinner to cook. Guess more effort is in Bristol NW.
(although, to cover my arse, I'm not sure if that applies here. I assume it apples to multiple studies of the same static population, not multiple studies of a changing population)
Reminiscent of this masterpiece by JohnLoony;
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/Barnsley+bar+chart.jpg
YouGov/Plaid Cymru (Wales)
CON 26 (=)
LAB 39 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
PC 13 (+1)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 3 (-1)
28-30th
Very little change on 2010, for Lab and Con. Lots of Tory activity in Cardiff North today, they look to be hoping for a shock.
Wales looks weird [polling-wise]. Barely any movement, despite a coalition in Westminster and Labour's Welsh NHS not necessarily being the most glorious example of state healthcare in the world. Surprised Plaid aren't picking up a bit more.
Here are the alternative current potential claimants to the crown
If we assume Edward IV was illegitimate (per the C4 documentary) - Simon Abney-Hastings, 15th Earl of Loudon
The line descended from John of Gaunt goes to David Somerset, Duke of Beaufort
The line from Mary Queen of France whom Henry VIII had declared to be the successors if his children failed to produce heirs should have led now to Lady Caroline Ogilvy who has married into the Ogilvy family which stands ca 40th in line in any case. Or if you follow the senior Stanley line (placed below the Seymours by Henry) you get to Teresa Freeman-Grenvillie
The Jacobite/Stuart claim now lies with Franz, Duke of Bavaria
the absolute Primogentitre after Victoria that would have led to Wlhelm would now be with Friederike Thyra Marion Wilhelmine Dorothea Von Der Osten
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-32556930
There are very few Lib/Dem voters in Croydon Central, I believe that the New Addington ward is one of the worst wards in the whole country for them.
There is a history of in fighting between Tories there, the MP Andrew Pelling elected in 2005 with a majority of just 75 was effectively sacked a year later, he was arrested for allegedly beating his wife but was never charged, the real reason he was removed is a mystery.
Pelling then sat as an independent and stood against the current MP Gavin Barwell in 2010, he didn't do very well though and later joined the Labour party he is now a Labour councillor.
There have been other goings on in Croydon Central as well, the former council leader later minority group leader was overlooked for the safe Croydon South seat and later removed for trying to claim his full councillor's allowance.
A longstanding councillor and assistant to Barwell was deselected a year after being the borough mayor and there have been other cases of shock selections and deselections among councillors and candidates.
The Labour party seems much more stable and I agree that 6/4 about Labour winning Central is cracking value, if you are able to get it, though it seems too good to be true and may be a bookie error.
The Royal Family has an incumbency bonus of which even Liberal Democrats are jealous.
Plaid are just not thought about as an alternative outside the Welsh speaking heartlands, they are a Labour Welsh language pressure group at best.
There are various claimants that could legitimately take the reins. Probably the Ogilvys have the most robust background, the Stuart claim is also very sound, but very much removed from the UK now
Swing to Labour was 6% in October , 5% in March and then suddenly 1% in April.
Battersea has 0% swing. These two are in London !!!! Impossible.
I appreciate Labour can't win in Battersea, but 0% swing when Labour is winning in Hampstead.
I dare say if the Tyndalls had taken up the role the Holy Roman Empire would still be with us
Miss C, got to admit, I think the double signage makes no bloody sense whatsoever. Are there more than a dozen people who speak Welsh but not English?
UKIP have clearly missed a trick there by not horribly warping the scale.
Very little time left.
I have not seen any door step activity here in Surbiton.
Mr. IOS, perhaps. So do Labour. The Conservatives are ahead in most polls.
You win by one then dave is gone!
Tories can't afford a draw.
I really can wait...
If that's wrong, I apologise. Don't want to upset you.
new politics or are they the lib dems mk 2?
Little activity here but it is a Con shoo-in so not surprising, and no campaigning for the council either where there is a little more to fight for. (NE Hants/Hart DC). But I guess all the activists are on GE work.
I am surprised how many people I know now vote postally. I quite like the ritual of walking up to the polling station and casting my vote, also it gives me to the end of the campaign to make my decision although I think I have now decided who to vote for in the locals, in the GE there was never any chance it wouldn't be Tory. I have voted postally a couple of times recently, because I was away on holiday, but always did it as a one-off. I suppose it is good if you don't know if you will want to go away on business at short notice.
If you like, I could check it now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11578193/snp-labour-coalition-government-deal.html
This "leak" looks pretty much like the start of the SNP's reassurance campaign targeted at E&W Labour supporters, assuring them that the SNP will work to ensure they get a proper Labour government.
Having spent 6 months in denial the MSM finally seems to be reaching the acceptance phase of the reality of the SNP's position in Scotland. The MSM denial phase I can understand, the bookies who allowed themselves to be slaughtered by many of us on this site have no excuse, all they had to do was send a questionnaire to their hundreds of staff across Scotland and that would have confirmed that the SNP surge was real.
Ignoring the LD to Con switchers in Croydon Central as an outlier, I see that the % of 2010 LDs switching to Lab and Con are an average of 40% and 20% respectively.
If I put that assumption into my model, Croydon Central comes out as Con 18,334, Lab 18,308. An evens bet.
Cardiff Council's most recent action has been to recognise Somaliland.
"YOU NEED MORE THAN TWO POLIICIES TO GOVERN A COUNTRY
Here are some of the extreme policies proposed by UKIP's one man team"
It then prints 5 quotes by Farage "Abolish the NHS" "Cut the State Pension" "Scrap Racial Discrimination Law" "Get rid of Maternity Laws" "Pay Women Less than Men"
Only seen one side of it so far, I'll check the other in a a minute to see which party it is from
BAN 332 and 555/6
PAK 628
Drawn.
Plus the DT story has more than a whiff of ursid faeces in a Forestry Commission plantation ...
Another good recent one was BBC moron Richard Bilton, who was on a boat covering the Libyan immigration story, and who helpfully informed us that the Mediterranean was a large area of water.
[The same clown asked a Greek emergency services officer whether "It was dangerous" whilst looking at a forest fire, doing a story about forest fires ravaging Greece. On a more serious note, when interviewing the mother of Rhys, the Liverpool boy shot dead by a 'gangster' fool, Bilton displayed sledgehammer sensitivity, enquiring "It's affected you that much?" after the poor lad's mother said she was moving house. Whoever would have thought a mother would be so upset over her primary school-aged son getting murdered...].
King Cole, having a look now.
Well, practice, qualifying and race results for 2015 all appear to be up [I think it was only race before, but I didn't make notes, so I could be wrong].
However, results appear only to go back to 2014, and then only race results are available.
There's a weird yawning chasm of space between the teams/drivers and points in the title race pages, so unless you're looking at the top or bottom you could easily misread [link below].
http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/championship/results/2015-constructor-standings.html
Checked the Spanish GP page. Timing still only in Spanish time [old site had a nice toggle button so I could see what it was in UK-time].
The major problem, of inexplicably removing all the historical times and title results, remains. Why that's been axed I do not know.
If you have any questions, let me know.