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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 41m41 minutes ago
Given the debate of phone/online polls worth emphasising that ComRes most vulnerable CON marginals was by phone.0 -
@SMukesh
'Greens up from 1 in 2010 to 5% in the marginals at present.Perhaps Ed is trying to squeeze them further with his Russell Brand interview.Seems to have gone down rather well.'
Naturally if Brand's followers have been listening to him they won't have bothered to register to vote, as he's been telling them for years it's a waste of time.
But Ed may have managed to get a surge of unregistered voters,pure genius.0 -
The 'lucky general' meme has been used against Cameron an awful lot in the past. So much, in fact, that the people using it should wonder if it is really all luck or is, in fact, more than a little skill on part of Cameron and the Conservatives.Casino_Royale said:
I remember you saying a few weeks ago that David Cameron might have a very lucky escape at 5 minutes to midnight.Sean_F said:
If ComRes were correct (43 losses to Labour, 14 gains from the Lib Dems in the South West + ?) then the Conservatives would be the largest party, but short of where they need to be to form a government),kle4 said:The Tories' chances of most seats still not looking as great as advertised then; they must be cursing those pesky marginal voters.
Also, can someone please tell me how any Tories thought they were going to win most seats or even a majority before the SNP surge at least gave them a chance of the former?
On Clegg, on the one hand he's clawed it back to within MOE, and with some Tories still left to squeeze and his history and party machine in the seat, he's clearly not out of it. But on the other hand with all those factors in play, he still hasn't managed to get a lead in a poll this close to the election.
But, if polls continue to shift towards the Conservatives, then they might just do it. Five out of seven polls this week put the Conservatives ahead.
If late swing and differential turnout on the day does manage to save him, he'll have had an almost unbelievably lucky escape as the clock actually strikes midnight.
As I said on a thread this morning, the Conservatives have done a really good job on recovering from their double-digit deficit a couple of years ago to be at least level, whilst making some decisions that are unpopular and with UKIP camped on their doorstep.
Labour should be romping away at this election - at least ten points ahead. The fact they are not is not just down to the rise of the SNP and Miliband's seeming lack of skill.0 -
OK Jack, what have you been up to?JackW said:
Really ?!? ....Verulamius said:Article in the local St Albans paper about spread betting in the election.
http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election
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LikeNorm said:
Yes I'm not on Hannan's wing of the party but on PR he is right. Those defending FPTP have not appreciated how this election will render that system not fit for purpose.Richard_Tyndall said:
Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.Flightpath1 said:
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?HYUFD said:Daniel Hannan comes out for PR, the first of many Tories I suspect
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html
Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100040195/av-is-the-worst-voting-system-of-all/
And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
UKIP 14% 3 seats
LD 9% 30 seats
SNP 4% 50 seats
Quite possibly the whackiest result in the history of world elections...0 -
It could just as easily be in the other direction in 2015. Remember Lab were the incumbent gov't in 2010 and I've always suspected there was a minor last minute swing back to them, enough to save 10 -20 MPs. A 3.5% swing can easily be eroded to 2.5% over the next week - it really is TCTC.bigjohnowls said:
how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?MikeL said:Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:
Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320
Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.0 -
Can any of you clever people on here help me as somebody who is seriously challenged by new technology! please? If I want to comment on a post how do I get the relevant section of that post in my reply please? The rest of you are managing it all the time! Any help to this 69 year old dumbo much appreciated!0
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LAB most seats is 4.2 though. CON 1.3Sean_F said:
Not necessarily. That would depend on how many each party gains from the Lib Dems.Speedy said:So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
I remember when EICIPM was 2.6 Cameron 1.4 yet despite a small improvement for Tories in polls that position is now 1.65 EICIPM 2.48 Dave0 -
If I told you I'd have to confiscate your black dress collection as hostage to you not spilling the beans ....Peter_the_Punter said:
OK Jack, what have you been up to?JackW said:
Really ?!? ....Verulamius said:Article in the local St Albans paper about spread betting in the election.
http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election
Yes, that bad !! ....
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An upper house elected on some form of PR is the solution.0
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Oh dear again, we must not criticise Saint Dan must we. I never mentioned and do not care if he has proposed PR before, I am just asking questions. After all the list system gave us Janice Atkinson as an MEP.Richard_Tyndall said:
Hannan is not some sudden convert to PR. He was supportive of moving to an Irish system back in 2010 during the AV referendum.Flightpath1 said:
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?HYUFD said:Daniel Hannan comes out for PR, the first of many Tories I suspect
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html
Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100040195/av-is-the-worst-voting-system-of-all/
And since he has proposed for many years that all MPs should be subject to recall and far more answerable to their constituents than at present I am afraid your smear of him just highlights your ignorance.
I am sure STV is brilliant but as I'm also sure you know, wiki points out
''The degree of proportionality of STV election results depends directly on the district magnitude. While Ireland originally had a median district magnitude of five (ranging from three to nine) in 1923, successive governments lowered this. Systemically lowering the number of representatives from a given district directly benefits larger parties at the expense of smaller ones.''
''In a nine-seat district the quota or threshold is 10% (plus one vote); in a three-seat district, it would be 25% (plus one vote).''
''As STV is a multi-member system, filling vacancies between elections can be problematic, and a variety of responses has been devised. ''
''Casual vacancies are filled re-examining the ballot papers data from the previous election. ''
''Another alternative is to have the candidates themselves create an ordered list of successors before leaving their seat. In the European Parliament, a departing Republic of Ireland or Northern Ireland member is replaced with the top eligible name from a replacement list submitted by the candidate at the time of the original election. '' --- This is democratic!!!!
Still thanks for your suggestion (or Mr Hannans) lest see what the other alternatives are.
Mine is FPTP - but with smaller constituencies. No House of Lords and 750 to 800 MPs.0 -
It's Scotland wot done it !bigjohnowls said:
LAB most seats is 4.2 though. CON 1.3Sean_F said:
Not necessarily. That would depend on how many each party gains from the Lib Dems.Speedy said:So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
I remember when EICIPM was 2.6 Cameron 1.4 yet despite a small improvement for Tories in polls that position is now 1.65 EICIPM 2.48 Dave0 -
Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...Sean_F said:
"A corker" has turned out to be a mouse in the past.Rexel56 said:
Not sure how to do this but...JohnO said:
Do you have a link for that?Rexel56 said:ipsos-mori trailing a 'corker' of a new poll in the morning... could this be moving SPIN?
That was how they described their February poll.
https://twitter.com/harryaevans/status/5934572978395627520 -
But 47 MPs ? SPIN said 211. Labour won 258 !Norm said:
It could just as easily be in the other direction in 2015. Remember Lab were the incumbent gov't in 2010 and I've always suspected there was a minor last minute swing back to them, enough to save 10 -20 MPs. A 3.5% swing can easily be eroded to 2.5% over the next week - it really is TCTC.bigjohnowls said:
how far did SPIN overestimate Tories in 2010?MikeL said:Well it obviously isn't all over. Latest SPIN midpoints:
Con 286 + LD 24 = 310
Lab 267 + SNP 46 + PC 3 + SDLP 3 + Green 1 = 320
Still over a week to go - it needs just 5 seats to switch from Lab to Con to give a tie.0 -
Under each post there is a quote button. Click on that, and the text from that post will appear in the box where you 'leave a comment'.. good luck!peterbuss said:Can any of you clever people on here help me as somebody who is seriously challenged by new technology! please? If I want to comment on a post how do I get the relevant section of that post in my reply please? The rest of you are managing it all the time! Any help to this 69 year old dumbo much appreciated!
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If you are logged on, there should be 'quote' text below every post. Clicking on that copies the test of that post (plus any previous posts in the thread) into the top comment box. Add your comment after the final /blockquotepeterbuss said:Can any of you clever people on here help me as somebody who is seriously challenged by new technology! please? If I want to comment on a post how do I get the relevant section of that post in my reply please? The rest of you are managing it all the time! Any help to this 69 year old dumbo much appreciated!
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Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
As a former Lib Dem, I would have said STV, but I now feel that AMS would be the obvious choice as it's familiar to a large chunk of the electorate as it's used for the Scottish, Welsh and London assemblies. I don't like party lists though, but I did a quick read on Wikipedia and it mentioned in the article on AMS that Baden-Wurttemburg in Germany has a system whereby the party list is made up of the party's losing constituency candidates in order of vote (presumably adjusted for constituency size and turn-out). That could be a good way of ensuring that the list members actually have to do some real campaigning and are hopefully selected by the local party grass-roots rather than managers.Flightpath1 said:
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?HYUFD said:Daniel Hannan comes out for PR, the first of many Tories I suspect
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html
Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?0 -
Robert Smithson had some very interesting data from Europe suggesting that internet pollsters routinely overestimate insurgent parties.Roger said:David Evershed
"So the difference between the results of internet pollsters and telephone pollsters might reflect who the voters are shy of and by how much."
I think you've hit the nail on the head. I've only seen three UKIP posters and they were on consecutive houses and it made me flinch. I felt like I'd driven into a leni riefenstahl movie.
I'm sure when the pleasant young pollsters start asking their questions the respondents go onto their best behaviour and UKIP becomes 'don't know'.
Yougov just oozes know-how.0 -
They've already more-or-less made clear that it's a Con lead I think.taffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
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Yes, that was before the massacre !MikeL said:Farron on Newsnight left open LD going with Lab even if SNP support required - though of course SNP support would not be official.
One stat to look for which I don't think anyone has mentioned so far:
Will Con beat Lab + LD?
Current SPIN:
Con 286
Lab 267 + LD 24 = 291
Now on the face of it that "contest" is irrelevant. But I suspect it may matter when the LDs take their decision - ie they will be less inclined to support Lab if Lab + LD is less than Con.
Very close at the moment per SPIN.
Remember - in 2010 Lab + LD was greater than Con.0 -
PTP has a black dress collection?JackW said:
If I told you I'd have to confiscate your black dress collection as hostage to you not spilling the beans ....Peter_the_Punter said:
OK Jack, what have you been up to?JackW said:
Really ?!? ....Verulamius said:Article in the local St Albans paper about spread betting in the election.
http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election
Yes, that bad !! ....
I am more of a Thunderbirds collector myself.0 -
I don't think so....Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
SPIN still not shifting, con+LD = 310. UKIP have dropped 0.5 a seat today though, to 3-4.0
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Didn't Ipsos Mori indicate earlier today that the conservatives have taken an unspecified lead in their next polltaffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.0 -
Doesn't everybody, BJO?bigjohnowls said:
PTP has a black dress collection?JackW said:
If I told you I'd have to confiscate your black dress collection as hostage to you not spilling the beans ....Peter_the_Punter said:
OK Jack, what have you been up to?JackW said:
Really ?!? ....Verulamius said:Article in the local St Albans paper about spread betting in the election.
http://m.stalbansreview.co.uk/news/12920350.Political_betting_surge_in_St_Albans_ahead_of_the_General_Election
Yes, that bad !! ....
I am more of a Thunderbirds collector myself.0 -
Labour are on course to gain 10 LD seats, the Tories 11 LD seats.Sean_F said:
Not necessarily. That would depend on how many each party gains from the Lib Dems.Speedy said:So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
Given that UKIP will get 2 seats from the Tories, then that factor is negated.
Of course LordA's methodology might be wrong and the LD lose far more seats to both Labour and the Tories, but in that case UKIP too will get more seats from the Tories negating any LD differential gains.0 -
@Flightpath1: In the Republic they have by-elections to fill vacancies.
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Slight movement to LAB in last few mins on Betfair.
Dave out to 2.5
Lab most seats into 4
Not in the loop on the corker one presumes0 -
Really? Do you have a link?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Didn't Ipsos Mori indicate earlier today that the conservatives have taken an unspecified lead in their next polltaffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
Not always.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Survation. @Survation 3m3 minutes ago
1/2 In the interests of transparency, we've decided to share the raw data from our published seat polls from now to #ge2015 with academics.0 -
I am sure it wasRobD said:
Really? Do you have a link?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Didn't Ipsos Mori indicate earlier today that the conservatives have taken an unspecified lead in their next polltaffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
Just seen the Green Party PPB on C5, actually quite effective, sharp and to the point, having actors playing Miliband, Clegg, Cameron and Farage singing together in an establishment harmony and the Greens offering a genuine alternative0
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Who knows? The "corker" may be movement in the last 24 hours. The youth vote being energised and leading to a detectable shift? If so, it might just end up being a flash in the pan.bigjohnowls said:Slight movement to LAB in last few mins on Betfair.
Dave out to 2.5
Lab most seats into 4
Not in the loop on the corker one presumes
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I just googled AMS...
1) Didn't know we had this system
2) It looks fantastically stupid - 2nd class MPs being elected as runners-up prizes! Daft
Presumably you need much bigger FPTP constituencies, or you'll end up with way more MPs as well.
No thanks.0 -
Postal votes returned so far in the Highlands
Caithness and co 4,360
Ross, Skye and co 4,660
Inverness and co 7,7760 -
Finally catching up with Jim Murphy phone in on Kaye Adams Radio Scotland programme.
Wonderful question from "Annie" in East Ren who told him she's always voted for him but already posted her postal ballot for "not him".
"Jim, you seem to have lost your moral compass. When did you lose it and why?"
Magical.0 -
Best PPB I've seen so far (although I've missed one). May be attractive to their target audience: the young.HYUFD said:Just seen the Green Party PPB on C5, actually quite effective, sharp and to the point, having actors playing Miliband, Clegg, Cameron and Farage singing together in an establishment harmony and the Greens offering a genuine alternative
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Ben Page tweeted that on the latest info he had he expected Tory seat lead more likely than not.RobD said:
Really? Do you have a link?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Didn't Ipsos Mori indicate earlier today that the conservatives have taken an unspecified lead in their next polltaffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....
From what I remember0 -
Sorry - I meant to say that I am sure it was said on here earlier todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure it wasRobD said:
Really? Do you have a link?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Didn't Ipsos Mori indicate earlier today that the conservatives have taken an unspecified lead in their next polltaffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori · 7h 7 hours ago
.@justin_mcguirk on the nos i am seeing at moment it is more probable. doesn't mean they get to be the government
There it is0 -
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593351782849507328MikeL said:Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.
In answer to question about Tories being largest party...
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593372453939863552
That wouldn't suggest massively ahead.0 -
The Plaid PPB themed on 'the only gay in the village' was good too.HYUFD said:Just seen the Green Party PPB on C5, actually quite effective, sharp and to the point, having actors playing Miliband, Clegg, Cameron and Farage singing together in an establishment harmony and the Greens offering a genuine alternative
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Seems quite high but is that usual for these highland/remote areas?AndreaParma_82 said:Postal votes returned so far in the Highlands
Caithness and co 4,360
Ross, Skye and co 4,660
Inverness and co 7,7760 -
I'd expect more like 14: 7 gains in the Conservatives' favour.Speedy said:
Labour are on course to gain 10 LD seats, the Tories 11 LD seats.Sean_F said:
Not necessarily. That would depend on how many each party gains from the Lib Dems.Speedy said:So both ComRes marginals poll of Tory held seats and LordA's constituency polls of Tory held seats say the same thing, Labour on course for most seats.
Given that UKIP will get 2 seats from the Tories, then that factor is negated.
Of course LordA's methodology might be wrong and the LD lose far more seats to both Labour and the Tories, but in that case UKIP too will get more seats from the Tories negating any LD differential gains.0 -
15% of all votes in Inverness are postal votes so far, is that a UK record?AndreaParma_82 said:Postal votes returned so far in the Highlands
Caithness and co 4,360
Ross, Skye and co 4,660
Inverness and co 7,7760 -
It took me far too long to work out nos = numbers.bigjohnowls said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori · 7h 7 hours ago
.@justin_mcguirk on the nos i am seeing at moment it is more probable. doesn't mean they get to be the government
There it is0 -
Speedy Nate Silver, the guru of polling, has predicted Tories most seats, but Labour and SNP more than Tories and Labour but still short of a majority ie chaos. Certainly if the Tories gain more LD seats than Labour too Labour are not winning enough Tory seats to be certain of largest party, especially with the Scotland wipeout too0
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Ah, thanks. I've only just logged on so still catching up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sorry - I meant to say that I am sure it was said on here earlier todayBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am sure it wasRobD said:
Really? Do you have a link?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Didn't Ipsos Mori indicate earlier today that the conservatives have taken an unspecified lead in their next polltaffys said:Yes. Given their hints so far I'd say this needs to be at least Con +5 to justify the term...
Or...er.....lab +5....0 -
According to ITV Labour win 44 out of the 50 seats polled with the 3.5% swing.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/0 -
Lol,must have been a soft interview with Kaye adams.Dair said:Finally catching up with Jim Murphy phone in on Kaye Adams Radio Scotland programme.
Wonderful question from "Annie" in East Ren who told him she's always voted for him but already posted her postal ballot for "not him".
"Jim, you seem to have lost your moral compass. When did you lose it and why?"
Magical.0 -
Yeah I've seen it too.HYUFD said:Just seen the Green Party PPB on C5, actually quite effective, sharp and to the point, having actors playing Miliband, Clegg, Cameron and Farage singing together in an establishment harmony and the Greens offering a genuine alternative
They made their political opponents look like a popular boy band.0 -
"Edging ahead" sounds more like a lead of a couple of per cent, to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593351782849507328MikeL said:Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.
In answer to question about Tories being largest party...
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593372453939863552
That wouldn't suggest massively ahead.
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Sounds like a Con lead of 2-3%, which would fit in with the overall narrative everywhere bar YG / Populus.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593351782849507328MikeL said:Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.
In answer to question about Tories being largest party...
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593372453939863552
That wouldn't suggest massively ahead.
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Hope your flight was OK yesterday.RobD said:
It took me far too long to work out nos = numbers.bigjohnowls said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori · 7h 7 hours ago
.@justin_mcguirk on the nos i am seeing at moment it is more probable. doesn't mean they get to be the government
There it is
Presumably the lack of Champagne delivery was a give away re last nights YG.
Tomorrows Corker could give you cause for celebration though0 -
Hope they said the usual caveatsSMukesh said:According to ITV Labour win 44 out of the 50 seats polled with the 3.5% swing.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/0 -
Similar system in Japan, although it's a parallel system, not compensatory, and the list could be described as an 'arbitrary list'.rpjs said:
As a former Lib Dem, I would have said STV, but I now feel that AMS would be the obvious choice as it's familiar to a large chunk of the electorate as it's used for the Scottish, Welsh and London assemblies. I don't like party lists though, but I did a quick read on Wikipedia and it mentioned in the article on AMS that Baden-Wurttemburg in Germany has a system whereby the party list is made up of the party's losing constituency candidates in order of vote (presumably adjusted for constituency size and turn-out). That could be a good way of ensuring that the list members actually have to do some real campaigning and are hopefully selected by the local party grass-roots rather than managers.Flightpath1 said:
Oh dear - has he said what form of PR?HYUFD said:Daniel Hannan comes out for PR, the first of many Tories I suspect
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html
Presumably a list whereby he can get into parliament without the need to confront a constituent?
Maybe he prefers the type of PR which gave us the last greek government.
Or the type of PR which gave us the current 'grand coalition' government in Germany.
Please can we now hear from PBers which form of PR they prefer?
Basically for some slots on the list, a seat is given to those losers who came closest to victory in a FPTP district.
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Lab 35.6% Con 39.6% 2010 = 4% Con lead. New poll Lab 40% Con 33% = 7% Lab lead. Is that not a 5.5% Con/Lab swing?0
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Is BMG poll worth paying attention to? Seems to me yes but with caveat that we should take it less seriously than other pollsters. Just as we should take a Panelbase less seriously than one with a longer record like ICM.0
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Scottish Greens didn't use it which they could probably have done with some decent editing and top and tailing it with Patrick Harvey. Their own effort was fairly bleh.HYUFD said:Just seen the Green Party PPB on C5, actually quite effective, sharp and to the point, having actors playing Miliband, Clegg, Cameron and Farage singing together in an establishment harmony and the Greens offering a genuine alternative
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I was disappointed, yesbigjohnowls said:
Hope your flight was OK yesterday.RobD said:
It took me far too long to work out nos = numbers.bigjohnowls said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori · 7h 7 hours ago
.@justin_mcguirk on the nos i am seeing at moment it is more probable. doesn't mean they get to be the government
There it is
Presumably the lack of Champagne delivery was a give away re last nights YG.
Tomorrows Corker could give you cause for celebration though
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BJO: Don't despair. It might be a big Labour lead. Then drinks will be on you at the next PB meet!!!bigjohnowls said:
Hope your flight was OK yesterday.RobD said:
It took me far too long to work out nos = numbers.bigjohnowls said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori · 7h 7 hours ago
.@justin_mcguirk on the nos i am seeing at moment it is more probable. doesn't mean they get to be the government
There it is
Presumably the lack of Champagne delivery was a give away re last nights YG.
Tomorrows Corker could give you cause for celebration though
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Nate Silver is a guru of american polling, not outside the USA.HYUFD said:Speedy Nate Silver, the guru of polling, has predicted Tories most seats, but Labour and SNP more than Tories and Labour but still short of a majority ie chaos. Certainly if the Tories gain more LD seats than Labour too Labour are not winning enough Tory seats to be certain of largest party, especially with the Scotland wipeout too
All the constituency and marginals polling say the same thing, Labour largest party.
It seems that he has forgotten that like in America, in Britain the popular vote means little, it's all about who is ahead in which state with so many electoral votes or in how many constituencies.0 -
Ipsos could be a Con lead of 1 or 2 but given that it was a Labour lead of 2, it would be the swing that's 'the corker'.
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I think Kaye was suffering shell-shock from the response to yesterday and actually tried to be firm with Jimmy boy. Very surprising.Tykejohnno said:
Lol,must have been a soft interview with Kaye adams.Dair said:Finally catching up with Jim Murphy phone in on Kaye Adams Radio Scotland programme.
Wonderful question from "Annie" in East Ren who told him she's always voted for him but already posted her postal ballot for "not him".
"Jim, you seem to have lost your moral compass. When did you lose it and why?"
Magical.0 -
Is that a new poll - I thought com res was 40 labour 37 conservativesPMJ said:Lab 35.6% Con 39.6% 2010 = 4% Con lead. New poll Lab 40% Con 33% = 7% Lab lead. Is that not a 5.5% Con/Lab swing?
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Ben Page will know that any poll showing Con +2 or even Con +3 could easily just be random sample error from a tie.
For him to use the words he did suggests he has pretty clear evidence Con definitely lead.
To my mind, that implies MORI poll is at least Con +4.
Add in the "corker" comment and I would say Con +5.0 -
OT - watching with agony as my postal ballot makes its way through the US Postal System... argh! And, I'm in a very tight marginal according to the good Lord.0
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It's pretty much down to this. Will the Labour=SNP scare mongering get the last 2%-3% the Tories need before May 7th or has it already given all it's going to give.acf2310 said:
Sounds like a Con lead of 2-3%, which would fit in with the overall narrative everywhere bar YG / Populus.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593351782849507328MikeL said:Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.
In answer to question about Tories being largest party...
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593372453939863552
That wouldn't suggest massively ahead.0 -
It is perhaps more like rats deserting the sinking ship, they have maybe at last seen the writing on the proverbial.Dair said:
I think Kaye was suffering shell-shock from the response to yesterday and actually tried to be firm with Jimmy boy. Very surprising.Tykejohnno said:
Lol,must have been a soft interview with Kaye adams.Dair said:Finally catching up with Jim Murphy phone in on Kaye Adams Radio Scotland programme.
Wonderful question from "Annie" in East Ren who told him she's always voted for him but already posted her postal ballot for "not him".
"Jim, you seem to have lost your moral compass. When did you lose it and why?"
Magical.0 -
Edging ahead in seats might need more than that?Sean_F said:
"Edging ahead" sounds more like a lead of a couple of per cent, to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593351782849507328MikeL said:Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.
In answer to question about Tories being largest party...
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593372453939863552
That wouldn't suggest massively ahead.0 -
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Sounds like 44+ a few others outside of top 50 (say 49 in total)
Plus 10 LD - 45 SNP gives net gains of about 14 ie 272
Cons 306 add 15 LD -49=272
Betfair 1.31/4.0 most seats looks odd to me0 -
I have heard it is c 25,000 for Dundee East and West combined.Norm said:
Seems quite high but is that usual for these highland/remote areas?AndreaParma_82 said:Postal votes returned so far in the Highlands
Caithness and co 4,360
Ross, Skye and co 4,660
Inverness and co 7,776
Western Isles is c 4,100 and in 2010 GE it was c 2,300. So usual - well no!0 -
Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate0
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Yes, but ComRes is only one poll. It's no more important than any other single poll.bigjohnowls said:In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Sounds like 44+ a few others outside of top 50 (say 49 in total)
Plus 10 LD - 45 SNP gives net gains of about 14 ie 272
Cons 306 add 15 LD -49=272
Betfair 1.31/4.0 most seats looks odd to me
Just as MORI will only be one poll.0 -
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It's pretty much down to this. Will the Labour=SNP scare mongering get the last 2%-3% the Tories need before May 7th or has it already given all it's going to give.acf2310 said:
Sounds like a Con lead of 2-3%, which would fit in with the overall narrative everywhere bar YG / Populus.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593351782849507328MikeL said:Surely the Ben Page tweet earlier just about guarantees a big Con lead with MORI.
I would agree with previous posts - Con +5 or even Con +6.
In answer to question about Tories being largest party...
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/593372453939863552
That wouldn't suggest massively ahead.
When Nicola has even charmed Dan Hodges onto the SNP's side, it's not surprising even the died in the wool Labourites at BBC Scotland are starting to think of the years ahead and how best to keep hold of their cushy jobs, even if it means betraying the party machine that gave them the roles.Itwasrigged said:
It is perhaps more like rats deserting the sinking ship, they have maybe at last seen the writing on the proverbial.Dair said:
I think Kaye was suffering shell-shock from the response to yesterday and actually tried to be firm with Jimmy boy. Very surprising.Tykejohnno said:
Lol,must have been a soft interview with Kaye adams.Dair said:Finally catching up with Jim Murphy phone in on Kaye Adams Radio Scotland programme.
Wonderful question from "Annie" in East Ren who told him she's always voted for him but already posted her postal ballot for "not him".
"Jim, you seem to have lost your moral compass. When did you lose it and why?"
Magical.0 -
He is using Hanretty this time round. I've been using it as a decent guide too to the seats.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
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Truly the jewel in the crown of Tory constituencies............... titterPulpstar said:
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Labour don't have to be the largest party.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
They need 260 seats to have a very good chance of EICINPIPM, or at least EICIPM in everyone;s pocket. At 270 EICINPIPM is certain.0 -
Labour would gain seats where a swing of >3.5% was needed. But, they'd also fall short in seats where a swing of under 3.5% was needed (eg Thurrock).bigjohnowls said:In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Sounds like 44+ a few others outside of top 50 (say 49 in total)
Plus 10 LD - 45 SNP gives net gains of about 14 ie 272
Cons 306 add 15 LD -49=272
Betfair 1.31/4.0 most seats looks odd to me0 -
He didn't do so well in the 2010 GE.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
I agree that you shouldn't underestimate him, but his expertise and the amount of work he's willing to put in are much lower for the UK than the US. Plus the US is just a lot easier.0 -
I got the presidential elections spot on too, but Nate Silver missed the 2010 and 2014 Congressional elections badly.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
To predict the result of a US presidential election is easy since it has only 50 states, to predict the result of a legislative election with hundreds of seats in FPTP systems (US Congress, House Of Commons ) is far different.0 -
44/50?SMukesh said:According to ITV Labour win 44 out of the 50 seats polled with the 3.5% swing.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Dream on.0 -
Pulpstar Indeed, though Hanretty sensibly cautions that by election day the polls will still only be 80% right
http://may2015.com/author/chris-hanretty/0 -
Exactly.How did they miss 6 seats?nigel4england said:
44/50?SMukesh said:According to ITV Labour win 44 out of the 50 seats polled with the 3.5% swing.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Dream on.0 -
Predicting 42/50 States shouldn't be difficult in a Presidential election. Predicting most Senate and House seats isn't hard either.Speedy said:
I got the presidential elections spot on too, but Nate Silver missed the 2010 and 2014 Congressional elections badly.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
To predict the result of a US presidential election is easy since it has only 50 states, to predict the result of a legislative election with hundreds of seats in FPTP systems (US Congress, House Of Commons ) is far different.0 -
260 seats is Labour abstains the Queens speech; 265 Ye He is PM... Just... 270 is nailed on.Dair said:
Labour don't have to be the largest party.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
They need 260 seats to have a very good chance of EICINPIPM, or at least EICIPM in everyone;s pocket. At 270 EICINPIPM is certain.0 -
Clegg rules out entering any government relying on support of either UKIP/DUP or SNP.0
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Ask Southam and Stuarttruth.Sean_F said:
Predicting 42/50 States shouldn't be difficult in a Presidential election. Predicting most Senate and House seats isn't hard either.Speedy said:
I got the presidential elections spot on too, but Nate Silver missed the 2010 and 2014 Congressional elections badly.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
To predict the result of a US presidential election is easy since it has only 50 states, to predict the result of a legislative election with hundreds of seats in FPTP systems (US Congress, House Of Commons ) is far different.0 -
The marginals are the problem.Sean_F said:
Predicting 42/50 States shouldn't be difficult in a Presidential election. Predicting most Senate and House seats isn't hard either.Speedy said:
I got the presidential elections spot on too, but Nate Silver missed the 2010 and 2014 Congressional elections badly.HYUFD said:Speedy No, wrong, Nate has analysed all the constituency polls and the rise of the SNP too, he is the polling geek to end all geeks and got the 2008 and 2012 US results spot on, underestimate him at your peril. Once you add in the moderate Labour gains from Tory being offset by Tory gains from LD and huge Labour losses to the SNP his prediction seems accurate
To predict the result of a US presidential election is easy since it has only 50 states, to predict the result of a legislative election with hundreds of seats in FPTP systems (US Congress, House Of Commons ) is far different.0
