politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My podcast with Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters + latest Y

On Monday, Keiran "favourited" on Twitter my ELBOW analysis of YG and non-YG polls

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/592419947663491072

Great podcast, very informative!

Two of the front pages are interesting amidst the predictably partisan. The Guardian has chosen the most unflattering picture of Ed Miliband, and the Mail gives huge prominence to claims the government has killed 6,000 people by undermining an anti-salt campaign. Surely they can't all have been Labour voters!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-32508003

Presenting DISASTER (Danny's Inexplicably Shit Attempt at Simulating The Election Result)

Starting with predictions of Lib Dem seats

LIB DEM HOLDS (17)
Sutton & Cheam, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Carshalton & Wallington, Berwickshire, Cambridge, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Colchester, Lewes, Caithness, Twickenham, Ceredigion, North Norfolk, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam (narrowly), Orkney & Shetland


LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (12)
Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington, Burnley, Birmingham Yardley, Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central, Bermondsey, Bristol West, Leeds North West


TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (20)
Solihull, Mid Dorset, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, St Ives, Chippenham, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Taunton Deane, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon & Radnorshire, North Devon, Portsmouth South, Kingston & Surbiton, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath


SNP GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (8)
East Dunbartonshire, Argyll & Bute, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh West, Gordon, Inverness, North East Fife, Ross Skye & Lochaber

Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.

On the podcast it was interesting to hear how PoliticalBetting got started.

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. YouGov's methology changed at data point number 79 and took 5 days to fully impact upon the moving average. Click to enlarge...

A very insightful podcast, thanks Mike.

Good points especially on regional polling, it seems there is some discrepancy between for example the Ashcroft marginal polls vs extrapolating national polls into seats. Swings in London and especially Scotland will be very different from the national picture.

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.

We Blues are certainly working Torbay hard. There will be 50+ volunteers turning up today, for example. That is a lot of face-to-face contacts.

Also hearing the LibDems are not confident. There are a forest of Green posters in their better areas - and UKIP are working the same areas hard too.

Yeovil would be a shock - but the Tories are putting some big guns in there, so CCHQ think it is in play.

Cheltenham will test my theory that towns who have football teams that get relegated in election years do particularly badly for the incumbents - and vice versa for those who get promoted.

Lab lose Sunderland is going to be the shock of the night then?!?

We had a largish Labour canvassing team in Dundee West last night. Unfortunately I was out but my wife reported that their starting point was "have you ever thought about tactical voting?" They are clearly going after no voters who want anyone but the SNP. And Mike is right the Unionist community does feel threatened.

Labour have not given up here. I don't think they have a chance but to my recollection they have not canvassed our village before. Jenny Marra has woken up the previously dead organisation and got them moving. Its interesting.

madmacs said:

I know Cheltenham well. Lib Dems have won most votes in local elections for past few years, Ashcroft poll has LDs well ahead. LD hold

Cheltenham is one of those Ashcroft polls where there is a huge disparity between "how would you vote if there was a general election tomorrow?" and "How would you vote IN THIS SEAT..." I still haven't quite got my head round how that subtle distinction provokes such divergent responses.

MarqueeMark said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.

We Blues are certainly working Torbay hard. There will be 50+ volunteers turning up today, for example. That is a lot of face-to-face contacts.

Also hearing the LibDems are not confident. There are a forest of Green posters in their better areas - and UKIP are working the same areas hard too.

Yeovil would be a shock - but the Tories are putting some big guns in there, so CCHQ think it is in play.

Cheltenham will test my theory that towns who have football teams that get relegated in election years do particularly badly for the incumbents - and vice versa for those who get promoted.

Lab lose Sunderland is going to be the shock of the night then?!?

I said towns. As any fule kno, Sunderland is a city....

Just teasing! It is an interesting theory. Certainly Leicester is a more optomistic place over the last couple of weeks. Some work to be done still, and Hull seem to be reviving too.

TGOHF said:

Anyone with thoughts on Warkwick and Leamington ?

Pretty sure someone posted here in the last day or so that Labour appear to have given up on it. Bit surprising as there was an 18% LibDem vote in 2010 for Labour to squeeze.

I notice that the Sporting Index has slipped the gap between the big 2 parties back up to 15, presumably on the back of the better Tory polling on Monday. If their central numbers are right forming any kind of a government is going to be a nightmare.

DavidL said:

In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality. When I hear Nicola Sturgeon and read many of the comments from our Nat friends on here she is clearly not alone.

In part the SNP have inherited this from the SLAB who have demonised Tory supporters so successfully for so long to their advantage. It is a pretty strange way to treat 480K of their fellow citizens.

Anyway she was indicating that the SNP are increasingly confident in Edinburgh South which I had thought was one of the seats Labour might hang onto.

In terms of demonisation, SLAB sowed the wind and reaped the whirlwind.

Sean_F said:

TGOHF said:

Anyone with thoughts on Warkwick and Leamington ?

Con hold, according to Lord Ashcroft.

And me, a resident in said constituency. There is almost no activity here, which strongly suggests to me everyone has tacitly recognised there will be no change. We have received no election literature of any kind for close to a fortnight now, after getting a lot at the start of the campaign.

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality. When I hear Nicola Sturgeon and read many of the comments from our Nat friends on here she is clearly not alone.

In part the SNP have inherited this from the SLAB who have demonised Tory supporters so successfully for so long to their advantage. It is a pretty strange way to treat 480K of their fellow citizens.

Anyway she was indicating that the SNP are increasingly confident in Edinburgh South which I had thought was one of the seats Labour might hang onto.

SLAB did the SNP's work for them for two decades and now look horribly out of place as the SNP steal their clothes.

I think Alan that SLABs problem was that the demonisation policy was so successful that SLAB did not bother to do anything else. It worked very well until people had a non tory choice but when that choice arose they really didn't know what to do. Other than opposing the Tories they had forgotten what they were actually for. And now they are paying the price.

Spot on. Labour took Scotland for granted and are gong to pay a massive price - deservedly so, I might add.

But there is also something happening beyond that in Scotland. The worship of St Nicola is extraordinary, the lack of scrutiny of SNP claims bizarre. There is a religiosity about it all. But that may come as a result of feeling ignored and essentially disdained by the Westminster elite for so long. In that, the Scots feel pretty much the same as voters elsewhere in the UK - it's just that they have someone to vote for to express that. At some stage, though, it is all going to come crashing down. The key thing is whether that is before or after independence. If it is afterwards, it could be very nasty indeed.

Mike. Enjoyed the podcast.

Congratulations on PB's 3rd General Election!

(And to all those who have been here for all three)

If my football promotion/relegation thingy has any validity, then incumbents should get a bit of a boost from civic pride in Watford and Burton. Being in the play-offs should boost Ipswich, Norwich, Milton Keynes and Swindon.

Getting a poorer result would be the LibDems in Yeovil, Colchester, Cheltenham, Burnley and Bermondsey (Millwall) and the Tories in Blackpool and Crawley.

DavidL said:

I notice that the Sporting Index has slipped the gap between the big 2 parties back up to 15, presumably on the back of the better Tory polling on Monday. If their central numbers are right forming any kind of a government is going to be a nightmare.

With every day closer we get to the election, it's looking more and more like the nightmare scenario of no obvious coalition having the numbers in Parliament.

I know that politicians say there's no such thing as a good election to lose but I can't see anyone wanting to have to cobble together 3 or 4 parties and still face defeat. It's going to be a very interesting few days and weeks ahead as the possibilities play out. FWIW I'm on the Grand Coalition - if only for a few months - on the basis that Labour know they'll face a backlash in England if they have anything to do with the SNP.

MarqueeMark said:

If my football promotion/relegation thingy has any validity, then incumbents should get a bit of a boost from civic pride in Watford and Burton. Being in the play-offs should boost Ipswich, Norwich, Milton Keynes and Swindon.

Getting a poorer result would be the LibDems in Yeovil, Colchester, Cheltenham, Burnley and Bermondsey (Millwall) and the Tories in Blackpool and Crawley.

The writing has been on the wall for the entire season for Blackpool so it should be hard wired into any seat specific polling.

Is it smart of Miliband to reaffirm Labour as the benefits party?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32506490

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I notice that the Sporting Index has slipped the gap between the big 2 parties back up to 15, presumably on the back of the better Tory polling on Monday. If their central numbers are right forming any kind of a government is going to be a nightmare.

With every day closer we get to the election, it's looking more and more like the nightmare scenario of no obvious coalition having the numbers in Parliament.

I know that politicians say there's no such thing as a good election to lose but I can't see anyone wanting to have to cobble together 3 or 4 parties and still face defeat. It's going to be a very interesting few days and weeks ahead as the possibilities play out. FWIW I'm on the Grand Coalition - if only for a few months - on the basis that Labour know they'll face a backlash in England if they have anything to do with the SNP.

I don't think a Grand Coalition is likely, but it can't be ruled out. They've certainly become popular in Europe, when centre-right and centre-left parties face insurgencies from their own side.

David

"In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality."

I'm with the instructing agent! ' Only a sociopath could think it desirable for a government to help the better off at the expense of the least well off which to most people is the Tory view.

......And why? 'Because we're worth it'.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality. When I hear Nicola Sturgeon and read many of the comments from our Nat friends on here she is clearly not alone.

In part the SNP have inherited this from the SLAB who have demonised Tory supporters so successfully for so long to their advantage. It is a pretty strange way to treat 480K of their fellow citizens.

Anyway she was indicating that the SNP are increasingly confident in Edinburgh South which I had thought was one of the seats Labour might hang onto.

SLAB did the SNP's work for them for two decades and now look horribly out of place as the SNP steal their clothes.

I think Alan that SLABs problem was that the demonisation policy was so successful that SLAB did not bother to do anything else. It worked very well until people had a non tory choice but when that choice arose they really didn't know what to do. Other than opposing the Tories they had forgotten what they were actually for. And now they are paying the price.

Meanwhile across the North Channel the locals think a DUP\Labour deal is as likely as a DUP\Conservative one.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/28/why-the-dup-is-genuinely-open-for-political-business-with-an-incoming-labour-administration/

Did you see the Dodds article in the Grauniad last week? Very scathing of the Tory attacks on the SNP and the threats he said it posed to the Union.

Yes.

The DUP are more like traditional northern England or Scottish Labour with a dash of in your face kipperism thrown in.

Unionist Sinn Fein :-)

The Baltimore looting got me thinking about my old boss, working class Irish background, done well in the City. Cameron lost her with his lax response to the London mass crime spree, hug a hoody was a typical Cameron blunder.

Bad breakfast predicted for both Dave and Ed at Electionforecast.

280 seats with few mates for Dave and only 7 net gains + a Scottish near wipeout for Ed.

Sean_F said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I notice that the Sporting Index has slipped the gap between the big 2 parties back up to 15, presumably on the back of the better Tory polling on Monday. If their central numbers are right forming any kind of a government is going to be a nightmare.

With every day closer we get to the election, it's looking more and more like the nightmare scenario of no obvious coalition having the numbers in Parliament.

I know that politicians say there's no such thing as a good election to lose but I can't see anyone wanting to have to cobble together 3 or 4 parties and still face defeat. It's going to be a very interesting few days and weeks ahead as the possibilities play out. FWIW I'm on the Grand Coalition - if only for a few months - on the basis that Labour know they'll face a backlash in England if they have anything to do with the SNP.

I don't think a Grand Coalition is likely, but it can't be ruled out. They've certainly become popular in Europe, when centre-right and centre-left parties face insurgencies from their own side.

The Michael Gove neocon element would love a coalition with the Labour Blairite element. Would kill the Conservative party and UKIP would displace them.

Sean_F said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I notice that the Sporting Index has slipped the gap between the big 2 parties back up to 15, presumably on the back of the better Tory polling on Monday. If their central numbers are right forming any kind of a government is going to be a nightmare.

With every day closer we get to the election, it's looking more and more like the nightmare scenario of no obvious coalition having the numbers in Parliament.

I know that politicians say there's no such thing as a good election to lose but I can't see anyone wanting to have to cobble together 3 or 4 parties and still face defeat. It's going to be a very interesting few days and weeks ahead as the possibilities play out. FWIW I'm on the Grand Coalition - if only for a few months - on the basis that Labour know they'll face a backlash in England if they have anything to do with the SNP.

I don't think a Grand Coalition is likely, but it can't be ruled out. They've certainly become popular in Europe, when centre-right and centre-left parties face insurgencies from their own side.

I'd say it's more likely than 33/1 though, more like 10/1 if the result is along the lines of Con280 Lab260 SNP55 LD20 OTH35. On those numbers everyone has 'lost' and there's almost no other option bar a second election unless one of the major parties abstains purely to keep the other in power until the 'right' time.

Chris Hanretty's 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows the Blue Team's lead narrowing to 10 seats this morning: Tory 280 vs Labour 270.

Pulpstar said:

Bad breakfast predicted for both Dave and Ed at Electionforecast.

280 seats with few mates for Dave and only 7 net gains + a Scottish near wipeout for Ed.

That's where I think we're at right now. If there's a further shift to the Conservatives, then they may get up to 290, but I think that's as good as it gets.

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

Bad breakfast predicted for both Dave and Ed at Electionforecast.

280 seats with few mates for Dave and only 7 net gains + a Scottish near wipeout for Ed.

That's where I think we're at right now. If there's a further shift to the Conservatives, then they may get up to 290, but I think that's as good as it gets.

"Everyone" has lost the election headline May 9th

Roger said:

False Flag

"Social 'liberalism', mass immigration, an indiscriminate welfare state, crime and a weak economy harms the most vulnerable in society most of all. The moral bankruptcy of Labour can always be summarised by the daft idea of mega casinos. "

That isn't the caracature most people have of Labour but even if it was it doesn't show a malevolence towards les autres the like of which we often see from Tories.

Who would want to stand up for the views of 'Financier' for example? Because he's most people's idea of an archetypal Tory.

The general view of the Conservatives is that they're hard-hearted. The general view of Labour is that they're incompetent.

So are we going to see Dave on his soapbox in the next few days, or Ed at a Sheffield rally?
Interesting to see the paper review actually going through the each story in detail with the text of the articles, rather than the current fashion of having a couple of talking heads using the headlines as a starting point for discussion.

Plato said:

If you haven't seen this vintage BBC GE1992 coverage - it's brilliant. Everyone looks SO YOUNG!

HARPENDEN POSTER WATCH

Drawing room curtains will be twitching this morning in an exclusive part of leafy Harpenden as a Green party poster has sprung up.

The consternation that this unprecedented and shocking revolutionary act will provoke is difficult to gauge. Needless to say I will be on top of this dynamic story as the electoral shockwaves and cultural implications are avidly discussed over ladies luncheons and cocktail parties in the coming days.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality. When I hear Nicola Sturgeon and read many of the comments from our Nat friends on here she is clearly not alone.

In part the SNP have inherited this from the SLAB who have demonised Tory supporters so successfully for so long to their advantage. It is a pretty strange way to treat 480K of their fellow citizens.

Anyway she was indicating that the SNP are increasingly confident in Edinburgh South which I had thought was one of the seats Labour might hang onto.

SLAB did the SNP's work for them for two decades and now look horribly out of place as the SNP steal their clothes.

I think Alan that SLABs problem was that the demonisation policy was so successful that SLAB did not bother to do anything else. It worked very well until people had a non tory choice but when that choice arose they really didn't know what to do. Other than opposing the Tories they had forgotten what they were actually for. And now they are paying the price.

Meanwhile across the North Channel the locals think a DUP\Labour deal is as likely as a DUP\Conservative one.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/28/why-the-dup-is-genuinely-open-for-political-business-with-an-incoming-labour-administration/

Did you see the Dodds article in the Grauniad last week? Very scathing of the Tory attacks on the SNP and the threats he said it posed to the Union.

Yes.

The DUP are more like traditional northern England or Scottish Labour with a dash of in your face kipperism thrown in.

Unionist Sinn Fein :-)

It did read like a Come and Get Me note to Labour.

If we did not have FPTP, a Callaghan/Healey style, socially conservative party would probably do pretty well in England.

Would that be the same Denis "Socially Conservative" Healey who as Chancellor in 1974 increased the highest rate of Income Tax to 98%, declaring that he would squeeze the rich "until the pips squeaked" ?
No thanks!

Roger said:

False Flag

"Social 'liberalism', mass immigration, an indiscriminate welfare state, crime and a weak economy harms the most vulnerable in society most of all. The moral bankruptcy of Labour can always be summarised by the daft idea of mega casinos. "

That isn't the caracature most people have of Labour but even if it was it doesn't show a malevolence towards les autres the like of which we often see from Tories.

Who would want to stand up for the views of 'Financier' for example? Because he's most people's idea of an archetypal Tory.

It seems to me that much of the malevolence directed at "les autres" comes from the left. On this very thread you describe Conservative voters as sociopaths.

The support of all parties contains a few unsavoury people. There is an arsehole element in every population, but generally people support the party they choose, believing it to be best for country. They may well be foolish, deluded or riding a hobbyhorse but rarely are they malevolent.

Any party supported by the amoral Alastair Campbell should not accuse others of harbouring sociopaths.

LD activity in Eastbourne has picked up but still only the odd street board giant triangle who are stalwarts. Few window posters.

I've seen many more at a local council election - it's really weird now we're almost in the last week.

I think the Tories are focusing on Lewes instead which surprises me out of the two. I've certainly had more invites to campaign there.

Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.

I think they will hold some of these too, but am not convinced that they will hold all of Danny's 17.

Won't hold onto Caithness. Despite Thurso being mp since 2001 there and must have some personal vote, same could be said for Kennedy in Ross, and he will lose by some margin. Same will happen to Thurso I feel.
LDs will win Lewes with a much reduced majority. Eastbourne may became LDs safest seat. Lloyd is very well liked and Ancell (Tory) not running a great campaign I feel. She has no links to Eastbourne, and her leaflet talks about the same proposals that Lloyd has been dealing with for the last few years, it won't win many voters over.

Alistair said:

peter_from_putney said:

Chris Hanretty's 2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast shows the Blue Team's lead narrowing to 10 seats this morning: Tory 280 vs Labour 270.

That's my current prediction, what is the SNP figure?

SNP 47 seats, LibDems 27 seats.

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

False Flag

"Social 'liberalism', mass immigration, an indiscriminate welfare state, crime and a weak economy harms the most vulnerable in society most of all. The moral bankruptcy of Labour can always be summarised by the daft idea of mega casinos. "

That isn't the caracature most people have of Labour but even if it was it doesn't show a malevolence towards les autres the like of which we often see from Tories.

Who would want to stand up for the views of 'Financier' for example? Because he's most people's idea of an archetypal Tory.

The general view of the Conservatives is that they're hard-hearted. The general view of Labour is that they're incompetent.

Careful Sean, that sounds awfully like a Cleggism.

As Sir Humphrey Appleby put it, it's better to be ruled by the heartless than the mindless.

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Cleggy.

Whilst your regular warm welcome to newly published PBers is to be commended I think in the @cleggy gy case you should also have issued a warning concerning his lamentable derision of the good Viscount's chances in Caithness.

Such defeatism is liable to an immediate suspension from PB and a likely exile to ConHome for 14 days for a first offence.

Harborough posterwatch:

A single solitary orange diamond looking forlorn in an Oadby garden. The LDs once thought that they could take the seat.

One field near the private school voting Conservative.

Pulpstar said:

MarkSenior said:

MarqueeMark said:

madmacs said:

I know Cheltenham well. Lib Dems have won most votes in local elections for past few years, Ashcroft poll has LDs well ahead. LD hold

Cheltenham is one of those Ashcroft polls where there is a huge disparity between "how would you vote if there was a general election tomorrow?" and "How would you vote IN THIS SEAT..." I still haven't quite got my head round how that subtle distinction provokes such divergent responses.

Cheltenham is one of those Ashcroft polls where there is a huge disparity between Q1` and Q2 and the consistent local election results over the last few years which show Lib Dem support increasing and Conservative support decreasing . The latter should help you get your head around your conundrum .

Why do people answer "Conservative" when asked who they'll vote for then ?

Why do people answer "Conservative to Q1 and "Lib Dem" to Q2 and vote Lib Dem in local elections ? Answer that and make a fortune on betting on constituency polls .

Mr. W, I think Thurso went downhill when he abandoned the Melchitt moustache for a beard.

cleggy said:

LD activity in Eastbourne has picked up but still only the odd street board giant triangle who are stalwarts. Few window posters.

I've seen many more at a local council election - it's really weird now we're almost in the last week.

I think the Tories are focusing on Lewes instead which surprises me out of the two. I've certainly had more invites to campaign there.

Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.

I think they will hold some of these too, but am not convinced that they will hold all of Danny's 17.

Won't hold onto Caithness. Despite Thurso being mp since 2001 there and must have some personal vote, same could be said for Kennedy in Ross, and he will lose by some margin. Same will happen to Thurso I feel.
LDs will win Lewes with a much reduced majority. Eastbourne may became LDs safest seat. Lloyd is very well liked and Ancell (Tory) not running a great campaign I feel. She has no links to Eastbourne, and her leaflet talks about the same proposals that Lloyd has been dealing with for the last few years, it won't win many voters over.

LDs (from what I have heard personally) seem reasonably confident in Eastbourne but not at all in Lewes. Greens appear to have taken a big bite out of NBs vote.

DavidL said:

In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality. When I hear Nicola Sturgeon and read many of the comments from our Nat friends on here she is clearly not alone.

In part the SNP have inherited this from the SLAB who have demonised Tory supporters so successfully for so long to their advantage. It is a pretty strange way to treat 480K of their fellow citizens.

Anyway she was indicating that the SNP are increasingly confident in Edinburgh South which I had thought was one of the seats Labour might hang onto.

One thing you should have realised by now is that the SNP members think that they can never lose anything. They even believe that they won the referendum by increasing the share of the vote from 38% to 45% and that one more push will get them over the winning line.

Even in the face of reality, they insist that their view is the only one that can exist. Very religious, with the newly deified Nicola preaching to the converted, while all those who argue otherwise are apostate and to be literally burnt at the stake unless they recant.

Very scary for anyone who questions their "truths" and no, I am not exaggerating.

The answer you will get from MalcolmG, Dair and others (ad nauseum) on this site, implies that if you don't like it, leave.

Now think what it is actually like to live in Scotland today.

Toffeenose said:

cleggy said:

LD activity in Eastbourne has picked up but still only the odd street board giant triangle who are stalwarts. Few window posters.

I've seen many more at a local council election - it's really weird now we're almost in the last week.

I think the Tories are focusing on Lewes instead which surprises me out of the two. I've certainly had more invites to campaign there.

Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.

I think they will hold some of these too, but am not convinced that they will hold all of Danny's 17.

Won't hold onto Caithness. Despite Thurso being mp since 2001 there and must have some personal vote, same could be said for Kennedy in Ross, and he will lose by some margin. Same will happen to Thurso I feel.
LDs will win Lewes with a much reduced majority. Eastbourne may became LDs safest seat. Lloyd is very well liked and Ancell (Tory) not running a great campaign I feel. She has no links to Eastbourne, and her leaflet talks about the same proposals that Lloyd has been dealing with for the last few years, it won't win many voters over.

LDs (from what I have heard personally) seem reasonably confident in Eastbourne but not at all in Lewes. Greens appear to have taken a big bite out of NBs vote.

Also, I find it mildly amusing that on the A26 into town the fields are clustered with the blue and yellow boards together. Doubt it does either any good as it brings back coalition memories.