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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My podcast with Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters + latest YouGov has LAB back in the lead
Yesterday I recorded a podcast with the excellent Keiran Pedley, the professional pollster who runs the Polling Matters website. We covered a lot of issues that are very familiar to PB regulars including comparing betting markets to opinion polls, Lord Ashcroft and regional polling, Scotland and the future of the Liberal Democrats after the election.
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https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/592419947663491072
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-32508003
Starting with predictions of Lib Dem seats
LIB DEM HOLDS (17)
Sutton & Cheam, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Carshalton & Wallington, Berwickshire, Cambridge, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Colchester, Lewes, Caithness, Twickenham, Ceredigion, North Norfolk, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam (narrowly), Orkney & Shetland
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (12)
Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington, Burnley, Birmingham Yardley, Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central, Bermondsey, Bristol West, Leeds North West
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (20)
Solihull, Mid Dorset, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, St Ives, Chippenham, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Taunton Deane, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon & Radnorshire, North Devon, Portsmouth South, Kingston & Surbiton, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath
SNP GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (8)
East Dunbartonshire, Argyll & Bute, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh West, Gordon, Inverness, North East Fife, Ross Skye & Lochaber
Also hearing the LibDems are not confident. There are a forest of Green posters in their better areas - and UKIP are working the same areas hard too.
Yeovil would be a shock - but the Tories are putting some big guns in there, so CCHQ think it is in play.
Cheltenham will test my theory that towns who have football teams that get relegated in election years do particularly badly for the incumbents - and vice versa for those who get promoted.
Good points especially on regional polling, it seems there is some discrepancy between for example the Ashcroft marginal polls vs extrapolating national polls into seats. Swings in London and especially Scotland will be very different from the national picture.
What I think Danny does show is that there damn few safe Lib Dem seats. A lot are in play however they shake down.
Labour have not given up here. I don't think they have a chance but to my recollection they have not canvassed our village before. Jenny Marra has woken up the previously dead organisation and got them moving. Its interesting.
In part the SNP have inherited this from the SLAB who have demonised Tory supporters so successfully for so long to their advantage. It is a pretty strange way to treat 480K of their fellow citizens.
Anyway she was indicating that the SNP are increasingly confident in Edinburgh South which I had thought was one of the seats Labour might hang onto.
I enjoy this as a format.
But there is also something happening beyond that in Scotland. The worship of St Nicola is extraordinary, the lack of scrutiny of SNP claims bizarre. There is a religiosity about it all. But that may come as a result of feeling ignored and essentially disdained by the Westminster elite for so long. In that, the Scots feel pretty much the same as voters elsewhere in the UK - it's just that they have someone to vote for to express that. At some stage, though, it is all going to come crashing down. The key thing is whether that is before or after independence. If it is afterwards, it could be very nasty indeed.
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/28/why-the-dup-is-genuinely-open-for-political-business-with-an-incoming-labour-administration/
Congratulations on PB's 3rd General Election!
(And to all those who have been here for all three)
I think a part of the reason is that so much of the traditional territory of elections, health and education, is no longer a part of Westminster elections in any direct way so there has been even less focus on policy in Scotland than there has been in England. It has also made it more difficult to hold the SNP to account for many of their poor decisions.
Getting a poorer result would be the LibDems in Yeovil, Colchester, Cheltenham, Burnley and Bermondsey (Millwall) and the Tories in Blackpool and Crawley.
So where you have an economically literate and intelligent population then Labour will struggle but having grown up in the North West I think the Labour approach will be very effective there.
I know that politicians say there's no such thing as a good election to lose but I can't see anyone wanting to have to cobble together 3 or 4 parties and still face defeat. It's going to be a very interesting few days and weeks ahead as the possibilities play out. FWIW I'm on the Grand Coalition - if only for a few months - on the basis that Labour know they'll face a backlash in England if they have anything to do with the SNP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32506490
Don't fly above 30k ft!
I've seen many more at a local council election - it's really weird now we're almost in the last week.
I think the Tories are focusing on Lewes instead which surprises me out of the two. I've certainly had more invites to campaign there.
But yes, Robinson echoed his views on the Radio. The Ed in Salmond's pocket poster is fair political game, the Salmond pickpocket poster an utter disgrace, up there with the Howard posters from 2005.
"In contrast I was speaking to one of my instructing agents yesterday whose partner is very active in the SNP. She was genuinely shocked that I was a Tory voter because I was "so normal". She seemed to have this caricature of a Tory that bears no relationship to reality."
I'm with the instructing agent! ' Only a sociopath could think it desirable for a government to help the better off at the expense of the least well off which to most people is the Tory view.
......And why? 'Because we're worth it'.
The DUP are more like traditional northern England or Scottish Labour with a dash of in your face kipperism thrown in.
Unionist Sinn Fein :-)
He'll vote Labour though he despises EdM and think Labour are full of toffs too. We're good friends, but he was visibly taken aback when I told him I was a Tory nowadays. He waited until he was back at my front door before asking timidly if I was a MEMBER. I said yes because my conscience wouldn't forgive me for not doing everything I could to keep him out of Number 10.
I don't think he's quite recovered that I could be that EVIL. He'll be very surprised to see how many of his fellow colleagues in the NHS vote Tory too.
thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/red-box-the-voters
Mr. Icarus, do fly safely and pay heed to the wise words of Miss Plato.
I'll probably listen to the podcast lately [I imagine I'd forget most of it if I listened now].
Hear the Cons want to put into law that up to 2020, there will be no increase in VAT, Income tax and NI, but that the personal allowance will rise to £12,500 over that period.
280 seats with few mates for Dave and only 7 net gains + a Scottish near wipeout for Ed.
If we did not have FPTP, a Callaghan/Healey style, socially conservative party would probably do pretty well in England.
Sinn Fein narrow favourites ?
"Social 'liberalism', mass immigration, an indiscriminate welfare state, crime and a weak economy harms the most vulnerable in society most of all. The moral bankruptcy of Labour can always be summarised by the daft idea of mega casinos. "
That isn't the caracature most people have of Labour but even if it was it doesn't show a malevolence towards les autres the like of which we often see from Tories.
Who would want to stand up for the views of 'Financier' for example? Because he's most people's idea of an archetypal Tory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVsmEtOH50o#t=181
Interesting to see the paper review actually going through the each story in detail with the text of the articles, rather than the current fashion of having a couple of talking heads using the headlines as a starting point for discussion.
Drawing room curtains will be twitching this morning in an exclusive part of leafy Harpenden as a Green party poster has sprung up.
The consternation that this unprecedented and shocking revolutionary act will provoke is difficult to gauge. Needless to say I will be on top of this dynamic story as the electoral shockwaves and cultural implications are avidly discussed over ladies luncheons and cocktail parties in the coming days.
No thanks!
The support of all parties contains a few unsavoury people. There is an arsehole element in every population, but generally people support the party they choose, believing it to be best for country. They may well be foolish, deluded or riding a hobbyhorse but rarely are they malevolent.
Any party supported by the amoral Alastair Campbell should not accuse others of harbouring sociopaths.
I've seen many more at a local council election - it's really weird now we're almost in the last week.
I think the Tories are focusing on Lewes instead which surprises me out of the two. I've certainly had more invites to campaign there.
Danny565: personally I don't think the LDs will lose Yardley, Bermondsey, Leeds NW, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon, Kingston, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath.
I think they will hold some of these too, but am not convinced that they will hold all of Danny's 17.
Won't hold onto Caithness. Despite Thurso being mp since 2001 there and must have some personal vote, same could be said for Kennedy in Ross, and he will lose by some margin. Same will happen to Thurso I feel.
LDs will win Lewes with a much reduced majority. Eastbourne may became LDs safest seat. Lloyd is very well liked and Ancell (Tory) not running a great campaign I feel. She has no links to Eastbourne, and her leaflet talks about the same proposals that Lloyd has been dealing with for the last few years, it won't win many voters over.
"Drawing room curtains will be twitching this morning in an exclusive part of leafy Harpenden as a Green party poster has sprung up."
Fear not. You can assure your neigbours it'll be recycled at exactly 10.pm on the 7th May and a tree has already been planted
Such defeatism is liable to an immediate suspension from PB and a likely exile to ConHome for 14 days for a first offence.
" the Unionist community does feel threatened. "
There isn't a unionist community in remotely the meaning of that word in Northern Ireland. Perhaps up to a third of the Scottish electorate are totally committed unionists who would never, ever vote Yes because emotionally they feel their country to be UK/Britain.
That however will prove not to be the basis for massive tactical voting, for example.
In Scotland, virtually ever extended family (and many immediate families) have different views on Scottish independence, with occasional movement back and forward within the Yes/No category. That I suspect is one of the reasons that demonising the SNP and cybernats isn't working as everybody knows one-or many :-)
Naturally I find it highly amusing that currently Kezia Dugdale (SLAB Deputy Leader) has her father tweeting very favourably for the SNP on twitter-not a surprise as he is a long time SNP member.
A single solitary orange diamond looking forlorn in an Oadby garden. The LDs once thought that they could take the seat.
One field near the private school voting Conservative.
He's plugged into the local political scene and reckons Cheltenham is a comfortable LD hold. The MP is hard-working and well liked.
He also thinks Labour will take Gloucester but personally I am more doubtful of that.
I counted 18 Tory posters to 8 Labour, in Winchmore Hill, Southgate, which is a surprisingly marginal ward.
I spotted a Labour canvass team in Finchley High Road, so they clearly think they can win there.
Even in the face of reality, they insist that their view is the only one that can exist. Very religious, with the newly deified Nicola preaching to the converted, while all those who argue otherwise are apostate and to be literally burnt at the stake unless they recant.
Very scary for anyone who questions their "truths" and no, I am not exaggerating.
The answer you will get from MalcolmG, Dair and others (ad nauseum) on this site, implies that if you don't like it, leave.
Now think what it is actually like to live in Scotland today.
Life can be harsh when the Harpenden Gentlewoman's Popular Front sink their collective gnashers into a victim.