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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf for tonight on Dave “being pumped up”

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  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    The next significant poll will be IPSOS MORI as it's the only telephone poll to have shown a Labour lead.
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016

    LAB back in lead with YG after last nights outlier!

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    Amazingly there are not loads of links to tonight's Yougov like last night..........strange that.
    That's because all you lefties are too lazy to provide an actual linky.

    ... not to mention too intellectually bankrupt to realise that you need to back up an assertion of fact with evidence ;-)

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    perdix said:

    There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    Indeed so, but that dislike is irrational (you are a prime example of the phenomenon!). Therefore, the alternative is always going to be disappointing, because there is no better alternative. Either you overcome the dislike, or you'll be for ever searching around for a non-existent alternative which somehow manages to combine being 'nicer' or 'fairer' with actually doing what needs to be done.

    That alternative doesn't exist. You end up with Labour, all spin and no substance. It's not that Miliband and Darling and Blair and even Brown are stupid, it's the fundamental clash with reality which will repeatedly disappoint you.
    As we say, the facts of life are conservative.

    Yep conservatives certainly believe that the facts of life are conservative. Nobody else does though and it's 23 years and waiting since an election victory.
    Labour are unlikely to gain a majority next week, which would mean that they have been unable to win an election without Tony Blair leading the party, since 1974.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    LAB back in lead with YG after last nights outlier!

    Tonights YG EICIPM

    Amazingly there are not loads of links to tonight's Yougov like last night..........strange that.
    That's because all you lefties are too lazy to provide an actual linky.

    NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK 6m6 minutes ago
    YouGov/Sun:

    CON 34 (-1)
    LAB 35 (+1)
    LIB 9 (=)
    UKIP 12 (=)
    GRN 4 (-1)
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JohnO said:

    The next significant poll will be IPSOS MORI as it's the only telephone poll to have shown a Labour lead.

    I agree.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,627

    SeanT said:

    In fact, let's go through this.

    If the polls prove correct, Labour are going to be wiped out, and henceforth unelectable, in south east England, south west England, central south England, East Anglia, and Scotland. And of course they do not exist in northern Ireland.

    They are being reduced to the party of London, Wales, and scattered parts of the north and Midlands. And that's it.

    If Plaid and UKIP up their game, in Wales and WWC England, it is possible to see Labour disappearing forever as a significant party of government.

    There is a large block of centre left voters in England and millions more in the centre. As a consequence, a sensible, credible Labour party will always have a chance. Labour was wiped out in all the places in England you mention 30 years ago, but came back. Scotland is another matter.

    And If, as the polls suggest Labour is wiped out north of the border, will it take another 30 years to rebuild there IYO?

    I doubt it. A new leader, a recession and things could change quickly. Why wouldn't they?

    It's worth remembering that even with Scotland gone, Ed in charge and the economy improving, we are talking about a very fragile Tory majority on a 37% vote share, at best. There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    I think there's pretty clear polling evidence that England leans centre/centre-right. It's the patriotism, desire for civil liberties, home ownership and preference for individual personal autonomy that swings it. Together with a lot of history and not a bit of culture.

    But, you're correct. "The Tories" - as a brand - pushes too many buttons with English voters about the class system, arrogance, pomposity, inherited wealth, landed gentry, and privilege.

    And that puts people off. Not that I agree with all those prejudices mind.
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    enfantenfant Posts: 34
    Quiet tonight,where is everyone?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    Oh OK:
    LAB - 35% (+1)
    CON - 34% (-1)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-)
    GRN - 4% (-1)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2015
    Say it isn't true...Margaret Hodge...whiter than white...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/593166614234791938
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'No one is saying that Labour will surpass the Tories on actual seat numbers. Where did you hear that ?'

    You either haven't been reading the threads for the past 4 years or are suddenly suffering from amnesia.

  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    enfant said:

    Quiet tonight,where is everyone?

    Silence of the Hodges :-)
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @SkyNews: THE SUN FRONT PAGE: "Monster raving Labour party" #skypapers http://t.co/TBPcySKfk6
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    SPUD!

    Day/Week/All Time
    2/6 (5)/23 (16) Polls (pollsters)

    CON +1/+7/-1
    LAB NC/+1/-12
    UKIP 0/-2/+6
    LD -2/-3/-2
    GREEN NC/+3/+4

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Moses_ said:

    isam said:

    9.5m followers

    Russell Brand (@rustyrockets)
    28/04/2015 14:29
    Don't be jealous Dave - I'll run into you at West Ham - when you're not busy with "ordinary people" pic.twitter.com/wB1Paq9xHV

    Good Twitter today was Ed meets Russell about poverty and then Russell goes back to his 3 million mansion and Ed goes back to his 199,999.99p mansion

    Harsh but fair....

    :-)

    I don't like Russell Brand, and I don't want Ed Miliband to be our Prime Minister, but...

    Opposition leader meets the most popular person who talks about politics in the country with people under 30, and said personality endorses his party/tweets negatively to 9.5m about the PM

    I don't think it can hurt Labours chances
    I agree. He is a fool, but a fool with a following.
    I've seen Brand a few times at the Edinburgh fringe. The first time was literally with one man and a goat- and he went off his routine to chat up a girl in the audience.

    Brand is not a fool. He is very observant, and intelligent. His comedy is full of compassion and pathos. Even when he veers into his anti capitalist line, he still shows humanity.
    Fools are often intelligent. Boris, Jacob RM, Ed Miliband all spring to mind.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Oh OK:
    LAB - 35% (+1)
    CON - 34% (-1)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-)
    GRN - 4% (-1)

    Is that correct ?
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    @SkyNews: THE SUN FRONT PAGE: "Monster raving Labour party" #skypapers http://t.co/TBPcySKfk6

    Great stuff, more personal attacks on Miliband. Keep em coming.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    perdix said:

    There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    Indeed so, but that dislike is irrational (you are a prime example of the phenomenon!). Therefore, the alternative is always going to be disappointing, because there is no better alternative. Either you overcome the dislike, or you'll be for ever searching around for a non-existent alternative which somehow manages to combine being 'nicer' or 'fairer' with actually doing what needs to be done.

    That alternative doesn't exist. You end up with Labour, all spin and no substance. It's not that Miliband and Darling and Blair and even Brown are stupid, it's the fundamental clash with reality which will repeatedly disappoint you.
    As we say, the facts of life are conservative.

    Yep conservatives certainly believe that the facts of life are conservative. Nobody else does though and it's 23 years and waiting since an election victory.
    Labour are unlikely to gain a majority next week, which would mean that they have been unable to win an election without Tony Blair leading the party, since 1974.
    I've often seen this posted in rebuttal to the 'Tories haven't won a majority since 1992' argument. I still don't understand why. If we're going to start judging on the basis of not winning a majority if we don't include those leaders who did win majorities, we could go much further with both sides. Yes, they didn't win for a long time until Blair was leading them...and then they did. The Tories are still waiting for their Blair.

    In this particular instance, while neither side is in the best of positions, the Tories have the worse of it in recent history. Perhaps that will change, but it doesn't mean the Tory failure is any less crap.
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    enfantenfant Posts: 34
    Thanks Nick.Good Luck
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    DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244

    perdix said:

    There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    Indeed so, but that dislike is irrational (you are a prime example of the phenomenon!). Therefore, the alternative is always going to be disappointing, because there is no better alternative. Either you overcome the dislike, or you'll be for ever searching around for a non-existent alternative which somehow manages to combine being 'nicer' or 'fairer' with actually doing what needs to be done.

    That alternative doesn't exist. You end up with Labour, all spin and no substance. It's not that Miliband and Darling and Blair and even Brown are stupid, it's the fundamental clash with reality which will repeatedly disappoint you.
    As we say, the facts of life are conservative.

    Yep conservatives certainly believe that the facts of life are conservative. Nobody else does though and it's 23 years and waiting since an election victory.
    Labour are unlikely to gain a majority next week, which would mean that they have been unable to win an election without Tony Blair leading the party, since 1974.
    That is a total non-statement.

    Man UTD havent won anything since 1985 without Fergie as manager

    Doesn't change a thing
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDtYcilWoAAxkGV.jpg

    BBC News : "Russell brand is a joke... I haven't got time to hang about with Russell brand" says David Cameron
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    @SkyNews: THE SUN FRONT PAGE: "Monster raving Labour party" #skypapers http://t.co/TBPcySKfk6

    Great stuff, more personal attacks on Miliband. Keep em coming.
    He's a pound shop Hollande.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    SeanT said:

    In fact, let's go through this.

    If the polls prove correct, Labour are going to be wiped out, and henceforth unelectable, in south east England, south west England, central south England, East Anglia, and Scotland. And of course they do not exist in northern Ireland.

    They are being reduced to the party of London, Wales, and scattered parts of the north and Midlands. And that's it.

    If Plaid and UKIP up their game, in Wales and WWC England, it is possible to see Labour disappearing forever as a significant party of government.

    There is a large block of centre left voters in England and millions more in the centre. As a consequence, a sensible, credible Labour party will always have a chance. Labour was wiped out in all the places in England you mention 30 years ago, but came back. Scotland is another matter.

    And If, as the polls suggest Labour is wiped out north of the border, will it take another 30 years to rebuild there IYO?

    I doubt it. A new leader, a recession and things could change quickly. Why wouldn't they?

    It's worth remembering that even with Scotland gone, Ed in charge and the economy improving, we are talking about a very fragile Tory majority on a 37% vote share, at best. There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    I think there's pretty clear polling evidence that England leans centre/centre-right. It's the patriotism, desire for civil liberties, home ownership and preference for individual personal autonomy that swings it. Together with a lot of history and not a bit of culture.

    But, you're correct. "The Tories" - as a brand - pushes too many buttons with English voters about the class system, arrogance, pomposity, inherited wealth, landed gentry, and privilege.

    And that puts people off. Not that I agree with all those prejudices mind.
    How wonderful would it be if there was a party that had those qualities of patriotism, desire for civil liberties, home ownership and preference for individual personal autonomy but without the class system, arrogance, pomposity, inherited wealth, landed gentry, and privilege.

    The LD once tried it but they are now consigned to the dustbin of history for betraying those principles in favour of supporting the party of the class system, arrogance, pomposity, inherited wealth, landed gentry, and privilege.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    TGOHF said:

    @SkyNews: THE SUN FRONT PAGE: "Monster raving Labour party" #skypapers http://t.co/TBPcySKfk6

    Great stuff, more personal attacks on Miliband. Keep em coming.
    At least this one is about something he has actually done, rather than just him being weird or his dad being a marxist or something. As a celebrity figure who Ed is seeking to leach off the inexplicable popularity of, I actually think the thrust of the headline is fair game compared to other attacks. I still don't think it will work, but it's not as silly as some of them - they have struggled with what what is occasionally a clear instruction to have a bad Ed headline when there wasn't enough to even partisanly justify it.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Say it isn't true...Margaret Hodge...whiter than white...

    Most unfair attack on Ms Hodge. We should be pleased that a Labour MP actually has real-life experience of the issues she speaks about in parliament.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    @SkyNews: THE SUN FRONT PAGE: "Monster raving Labour party" #skypapers http://t.co/TBPcySKfk6

    Great stuff, more personal attacks on Miliband. Keep em coming.
    He's a pound shop Hollande.
    You are Lynton Crosby and I claim my £5.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    Welcome aboard, enfant!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2015
    Great pic of Ed - nearly as good as tomorrow's Guardian.


    @suttonnick: Wednesday's Sun front page:
    Monster Raving Labour Party
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/yY6NdYp1ke
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    edited April 2015
    I like the use of the snapped photo of Ed getting in to his car. Makes it all seem like some sinister secret.

    I'm starting to get worried - no leaflets for a week now, and no knocks on the door at all. I presume I'll get a round of leaflets from most of the parties (nothing from Green or Con yet) in the final week, but if I no-one knocks I cannot even decide on the basis of who put the most effort in, so it might be down to a coin toss.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    Great pic of Ed - nearly as good as tomorrow's Guardian.


    @suttonnick: Wednesday's Sun front page:
    Monster Raving Labour Party
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/yY6NdYp1ke

    Echo......Echo........Echo......
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907

    Welcome aboard, enfant!

    Good luck Nick! Hope your hard work pays off.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899

    Oh OK:
    LAB - 35% (+1)
    CON - 34% (-1)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-)
    GRN - 4% (-1)

    Tick Tock
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    BTW, who is this Russell Brand fellow? I have a hazy idea that he's some kind of tedious comedian, do I need to know any more?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Great pic of Ed - nearly as good as tomorrow's Guardian.


    @suttonnick: Wednesday's Sun front page:
    Monster Raving Labour Party
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/yY6NdYp1ke

    Echo......Echo........Echo......
    Your man has rolled a 7 - desperate act of a loser on his way to losing.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, Ed Miliband gets a different unflattering headline in the i:

    @suttonnick: Wednesday's i front page:
    Labour turns nasty
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/KtVK47wKO6
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Great pic of Ed - nearly as good as tomorrow's Guardian.


    @suttonnick: Wednesday's Sun front page:
    Monster Raving Labour Party
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/yY6NdYp1ke

    HAHAHAHA.

    That is the worst picture in the entire world.
    You can barely see the back of him in the dark, in a dark alley, wearing a black suit, from what looks like a CCTV camera 50ft away.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,627

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Moses_ said:

    isam said:

    9.5m followers

    Russell Brand (@rustyrockets)
    28/04/2015 14:29
    Don't be jealous Dave - I'll run into you at West Ham - when you're not busy with "ordinary people" pic.twitter.com/wB1Paq9xHV

    Good Twitter today was Ed meets Russell about poverty and then Russell goes back to his 3 million mansion and Ed goes back to his 199,999.99p mansion

    Harsh but fair....

    :-)

    I don't like Russell Brand, and I don't want Ed Miliband to be our Prime Minister, but...

    Opposition leader meets the most popular person who talks about politics in the country with people under 30, and said personality endorses his party/tweets negatively to 9.5m about the PM

    I don't think it can hurt Labours chances
    I agree. He is a fool, but a fool with a following.
    I've seen Brand a few times at the Edinburgh fringe. The first time was literally with one man and a goat- and he went off his routine to chat up a girl in the audience.

    Brand is not a fool. He is very observant, and intelligent. His comedy is full of compassion and pathos. Even when he veers into his anti capitalist line, he still shows humanity.
    Fools are often intelligent. Boris, Jacob RM, Ed Miliband all spring to mind.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is no fool.

    As I think (Sean Fear?) has been said on here before, Labour love it when people like Stephen Hawking and Stephen Fry endorse them because they are seen to be very intelligent. It allows Labour to self-congratulate themselves as the intelligent party, and portray the Conservatives the stupid party, thus reinforcing their original intellectual laziness.

    The common thread is that arts, media, and research science are creative industries, very dependent on public funding, and their innovation is often based on taking anti-establishment positions. It's not surprising their celebrities lean Left.

    Conversely, there are plenty of very intelligent people in business, finance, law and technology who are entrepreneurial, depend on a stable and efficient economy, and derive their prosperity from the health of the private sector. It's not surprising they lean Right. But they're not on the TV as much.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, Ed Miliband gets a different unflattering headline in the i:

    @suttonnick: Wednesday's i front page:
    Labour turns nasty
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/KtVK47wKO6

    A personal attack - like the one he ruled out ? Panic stations !
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, Ed Miliband gets a different unflattering headline in the i:

    @suttonnick: Wednesday's i front page:
    Labour turns nasty
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/KtVK47wKO6

    How funny.

    It seems like only last week that Labour were whining about personal attacks. Oh wait, it was.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    perdix said:

    There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    Indeed so, but that dislike is irrational (you are a prime example of the phenomenon!). Therefore, the alternative is always going to be disappointing, because there is no better alternative. Either you overcome the dislike, or you'll be for ever searching around for a non-existent alternative which somehow manages to combine being 'nicer' or 'fairer' with actually doing what needs to be done.

    That alternative doesn't exist. You end up with Labour, all spin and no substance. It's not that Miliband and Darling and Blair and even Brown are stupid, it's the fundamental clash with reality which will repeatedly disappoint you.
    As we say, the facts of life are conservative.

    Yep conservatives certainly believe that the facts of life are conservative. Nobody else does though and it's 23 years and waiting since an election victory.
    Labour are unlikely to gain a majority next week, which would mean that they have been unable to win an election without Tony Blair leading the party, since 1974.
    That is a total non-statement.

    Man UTD havent won anything since 1985 without Fergie as manager

    Doesn't change a thing
    It's relevant because while Blair might have led Labour to victory, he did so firstly as a Christian Democrat and ultimately as a NeoCon. Labour, led by an authentically Labour politician, hasn't won a working majority since 1966.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    antifrank said:

    Meanwhile, Ed Miliband gets a different unflattering headline in the i:

    @suttonnick: Wednesday's i front page:
    Labour turns nasty
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/KtVK47wKO6

    I suspect a great many Labour supporters will be very happy to hear that Labour are turning nasty by launching personal attacks. It will pump them up.
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    JohnO said:

    The next significant poll will be IPSOS MORI as it's the only telephone poll to have shown a Labour lead.

    The Ipsos Mori poll is out on Thursday.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    I think anyone whose book is firmly tilted for one side or the other at this point is bloody brave.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Oh OK:
    LAB - 35% (+1)
    CON - 34% (-1)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-)
    GRN - 4% (-1)

    Well done Mr Palmer for putting the numbers up.



  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has anyone actually seen the Yougov poll tonight ?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:


    Labour took the piss out of the Tories for their losses but they were never really strong there in Scotland as Labour have been in the past.

    The Conservatives (Unionist, National Liberal & Conservatives) had 50.1% of the vote in Scotland in the 1955 GE, the highest percentage any party has had here.

    Nothing lasts forever, including any current SNP hegemony.

    Moses_ said:

    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 4m4 minutes ago
    Tory press release: "living standards 2.2% up from Lab's Recession. Q4 2014 disposable income £4,187, Q2 2010 £4,178". Actually 0.22% rise

    It's up by a lot more than that for the 2 million extra people in work.
    Is it?

    Does that include those on Zero hours contracts?
    Could you refer that post to the numerous Labour councils that use them. Also to the Labour MPs that use them and by the way in case you forgot......Labour invented them

    When & how did Labour invent the zero hours contract?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-hour_contract

    To a point that's even debatable depending on where you stand politically. What has to and must be remembered here is Ed Balls, Milliband and the entire Labour Party stated that the policies of the coalition would throw millions onto the dole.... There would be a triple dip... To far too fast... And any number of bullshit statements to scare the electorate.


    It didn't.

    We can only hope the electorate realise that although not perfect to move from where we were to where we are now is quite extraordinary against an opposition that has voted against pretty much every move and then..... And then even .....when they agreed ....slithered out of the agreement at the last moment

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
    Back to EICIPM with these

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
    That's Palmer's line.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Has anyone actually seen the Yougov poll tonight ?

    Same old same old.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970


    Of course, Richard!! It's only irrational if you don't understand it. And you don't understand it. Because you are a Tory.

    A genuine question for you, Southam. You posted earlier today that you hoped a better centre-left alternative to Labour might emerge (it's a point you've made before). As I was walking out to get my sandwich, I was thinking about that point, and I was really struggling to think what in policy terms you might want different from what Labour offers. Presumably no difference on the EU, or slower deficit reduction, or the bedroom tax, or anti-discrimination legislation, or higher taxation, or reduced use of private providers in the NHS, or getting rid of so-called 'unqualified' teachers in schools, or cancelling free schools, etc etc etc.

    I appreciate that I might be wrong about what you'd like to see, but can you elaborate on what you would like to be different?

    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Back to EICIPM with these

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Labour might think about abstaining the Queens speech on those numbers.

    Probably not - but I wouldn't rule it out 100%.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tyson said:

    Oh OK:
    LAB - 35% (+1)
    CON - 34% (-1)
    UKIP - 12% (-)
    LDEM - 9% (-)
    GRN - 4% (-1)

    Well done Mr Palmer for putting the numbers up.



    Where did Nick see it ?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Back to EICIPM with these

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Fine

    With or without the SNP?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
    surbiton said:

    Has anyone actually seen the Yougov poll tonight ?

    No is it bad for Ed?

    Has Rod been brought in flight champagne?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    perdix said:

    There are millions of English voters who just don't like the Tories.

    Indeed so, but that dislike is irrational (you are a prime example of the phenomenon!). Therefore, the alternative is always going to be disappointing, because there is no better alternative. Either you overcome the dislike, or you'll be for ever searching around for a non-existent alternative which somehow manages to combine being 'nicer' or 'fairer' with actually doing what needs to be done.

    That alternative doesn't exist. You end up with Labour, all spin and no substance. It's not that Miliband and Darling and Blair and even Brown are stupid, it's the fundamental clash with reality which will repeatedly disappoint you.
    As we say, the facts of life are conservative.

    Yep conservatives certainly believe that the facts of life are conservative. Nobody else does though and it's 23 years and waiting since an election victory.
    Labour are unlikely to gain a majority next week, which would mean that they have been unable to win an election without Tony Blair leading the party, since 1974.
    That is a total non-statement.

    Man UTD havent won anything since 1985 without Fergie as manager

    Doesn't change a thing
    It's relevant because while Blair might have led Labour to victory, he did so firstly as a Christian Democrat and ultimately as a NeoCon. Labour, led by an authentically Labour politician, hasn't won a working majority since 1966.

    Rubbish.
    Circumstances like John Major and his soap box, Smith dying, Brown being too gullible, and the Tory party self-destructing in the 90's. Those lead Blair to No.10.

    You could have put Tony Benn as leader of Labour in 1997 and they still would have won.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Pulpstar said:

    I think anyone whose book is firmly tilted for one side or the other at this point is bloody brave.

    Tory minority is best bet by miles
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Moses_ said:

    isam said:

    9.5m followers

    Russell Brand (@rustyrockets)
    28/04/2015 14:29
    Don't be jealous Dave - I'll run into you at West Ham - when you're not busy with "ordinary people" pic.twitter.com/wB1Paq9xHV

    Good Twitter today was Ed meets Russell about poverty and then Russell goes back to his 3 million mansion and Ed goes back to his 199,999.99p mansion

    Harsh but fair....

    :-)

    I don't like Russell Brand, and I don't want Ed Miliband to be our Prime Minister, but...

    Opposition leader meets the most popular person who talks about politics in the country with people under 30, and said personality endorses his party/tweets negatively to 9.5m about the PM

    I don't think it can hurt Labours chances
    I agree. He is a fool, but a fool with a following.
    I've seen Brand a few times at the Edinburgh fringe. The first time was literally with one man and a goat- and he went off his routine to chat up a girl in the audience.

    Brand is not a fool. He is very observant, and intelligent. His comedy is full of compassion and pathos. Even when he veers into his anti capitalist line, he still shows humanity.
    Fools are often intelligent. Boris, Jacob RM, Ed Miliband all spring to mind.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is no fool.

    As I think (Sean Fear?) has been said on here before, Labour love it when people like Stephen Hawking and Stephen Fry endorse them because they are seen to be very intelligent. It allows Labour to self-congratulate themselves as the intelligent party, and portray the Conservatives the stupid party, thus reinforcing their original intellectual laziness.

    The common thread is that arts, media, and research science are creative industries, very dependent on public funding, and their innovation is often based on taking anti-establishment positions. It's not surprising their celebrities lean Left.

    Conversely, there are plenty of very intelligent people in business, finance, law and technology who are entrepreneurial, depend on a stable and efficient economy, and derive their prosperity from the health of the private sector. It's not surprising they lean Right. But they're not on the TV as much.
    Tories populate the "B Ark".
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    surbiton said:

    Has anyone actually seen the Yougov poll tonight ?

    No is it bad for Ed?

    Has Rod been brought in flight champagne?
    No champers for Rod tonight.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
    Pulpstar said:

    Back to EICIPM with these

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Labour might think about abstaining the Queens speech on those numbers.

    Probably not - but I wouldn't rule it out 100%.
    20 or more seats behind and that is possible IMO
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
    You what? Yougov glued the needle down 2 weeks ago to exclude volatility and excluded the signal as well as the noise. No one pays them any attention any more. Last night was clearly an outlier by their standards.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Pulpstar said:

    I think anyone whose book is firmly tilted for one side or the other at this point is bloody brave.

    Tory minority is best bet by miles
    A value punt for sure - laid off a bit of Ed personally today.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Tory minority is best bet by miles

    Yep. Agreed.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    edited April 2015

    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
    YouGov being as static as it is, a Tory lead last night was just icing on the cake for the Tories after a series of genuinely positive poll movements. Without it tonight, they will be hopeful that the cake itself is still real at least. We shall see.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.
    No he isn't. Conservatives believe in defending the status quo. The clue is in the name.
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.
    Pity it hasn't existed and probably never will.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think anyone whose book is firmly tilted for one side or the other at this point is bloody brave.

    Tory minority is best bet by miles
    A value punt for sure - laid off a bit of Ed personally today.
    I think the "Ministers Shame On Killer Salt" will have greater impact than Russell Brand taking an interview.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Pulpstar said:

    Back to EICIPM with these

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Labour might think about abstaining the Queens speech on those numbers.

    Probably not - but I wouldn't rule it out 100%.
    20 or more seats behind and that is possible IMO
    They can kiss goodbye to Scotland for the rest of our lifetimes if they do that though. Probably be independent by 2024 at any rate though.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.
    If the Tories ditched the Euro-obsession and the fanatical privatisation then I could support them. But they are not going to do so.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think anyone whose book is firmly tilted for one side or the other at this point is bloody brave.

    Tory minority is best bet by miles
    A value punt for sure - laid off a bit of Ed personally today.
    I think the "Ministers Shame On Killer Salt" will have greater impact than Russell Brand taking an interview.
    Hah Nothing to do with Brand, more the 35% "gap" from Ed PM to Lab most seats was too large.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Moses_ said:

    isam said:

    9.5m followers

    Russell Brand (@rustyrockets)
    28/04/2015 14:29
    Don't be jealous Dave - I'll run into you at West Ham - when you're not busy with "ordinary people" pic.twitter.com/wB1Paq9xHV

    Good Twitter today was Ed meets Russell about poverty and then Russell goes back to his 3 million mansion and Ed goes back to his 199,999.99p mansion

    Harsh but fair....

    :-)

    I don't like Russell Brand, and I don't want Ed Miliband to be our Prime Minister, but...

    Opposition leader meets the most popular person who talks about politics in the country with people under 30, and said personality endorses his party/tweets negatively to 9.5m about the PM

    I don't think it can hurt Labours chances
    I agree. He is a fool, but a fool with a following.
    I've seen Brand a few times at the Edinburgh fringe. The first time was literally with one man and a goat- and he went off his routine to chat up a girl in the audience.

    Brand is not a fool. He is very observant, and intelligent. His comedy is full of compassion and pathos. Even when he veers into his anti capitalist line, he still shows humanity.
    Fools are often intelligent. Boris, Jacob RM, Ed Miliband all spring to mind.
    The common thread is that arts, media, and research science are creative industries, very dependent on public funding, and their innovation is often based on taking anti-establishment positions. It's not surprising their celebrities lean Left.

    Celebrities might lean Left, but their accounting practices tend to lean Right, as do the Producers and Managers running the Film and TV businesses employing thousands and generating vast revenues in the UK.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2015
    Jonathan said:

    No he isn't. Conservatives believe in defending the status quo. The clue is in the name.

    Poppycock. It was a Conservative PM who shattered the status quo on the trade unions, on nationalised industries, on the old-boy network in the City, on exchange controls, on rent controls, on the right to buy. It was another Conservative PM who dismantled the Empire. It was the current Conservative PM who shook up the education sector, presided over the most dramatic reform of welfare since 1945, and who is set to address the EU festering sore if he is re-elected.

    Labour, in contrast, wants to go back to the status qua ante: bad nationalised schools, education in thrall to teaching unions, tenants subsidised for life in properties too big for them whilst others are in desperate need, the EU untouchable and unreformed, and so on
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Jonathan said:


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.
    No he isn't. Conservatives believe in defending the status quo. The clue is in the name.
    That may be true of them, but parties are not just their names (despite what many voters seem to believe), and it is not always the case that what they stand for is in the name. How many times have people mocked the LDs as not being all that liberal or democratic? I've definitely seen it said.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704


    Of course, Richard!! It's only irrational if you don't understand it. And you don't understand it. Because you are a Tory.

    A genuine question for you, Southam. You posted earlier today that you hoped a better centre-left alternative to Labour might emerge (it's a point you've made before). As I was walking out to get my sandwich, I was thinking about that point, and I was really struggling to think what in policy terms you might want different from what Labour offers. Presumably no difference on the EU, or slower deficit reduction, or the bedroom tax, or anti-discrimination legislation, or higher taxation, or reduced use of private providers in the NHS, or getting rid of so-called 'unqualified' teachers in schools, or cancelling free schools, etc etc etc.

    I appreciate that I might be wrong about what you'd like to see, but can you elaborate on what you would like to be different?

    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.
    Not much to argue with there, unless you are in the Labour party. The means to get there may not always be common. I would expect a centre right Tory party to be much better at delivering on most of that.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Re Baltimore -

    A mother saw on TV her son was involved in the riot, looked for and found him, repeatedly hit him with her hands and beat the living shit out of him in the middle of the street on live TV. Eventually she carted him off home. She has won praise for being a responsible parent and authority figure with her son. It has been shown all day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUS7GRlAnlM

    This got the network talking heads pondering if missing fathers and black family breakdown could be a major factor in these riots.

    Some stats on both CNN and Fox thanks to the dvr - Baltimore is 63% black, yet 89% of those in jail are black. Much of this is mandatory drug stuff.

    Nationwide 67% of black kids grow up in a single parent household, 25% of whites, Asian 16%, hispanic 42%.

    2/3 of black kids have no male authority figure in their lives.

    It is at least food for thought - how to fix the structure of the black family. Obama made it one of his key objectives some years back, and it is surely not a quick fix.

  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Say it isn't true...Margaret Hodge...whiter than white...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/593166614234791938

    There in one headline is don't do as I do etc.

    Not seen on the BBC news of course that manages to find a space to report that Orville is dead in the top news. Alongside earthquakes, Baltimore and executions....

    If anyone at all thinks a member of the coalition in the same situation would not have been front page (in place of Orville the duck) is absolutely deluded.


  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    To conclude tonight, everything is static as usual.
    Also I agree with this:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3h3 hours ago
    Miliband-Brand interview will be seen by more people than watch C4N or Newsnight...more importantly, people who would prob not watch either.


    Goodnight.
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    LGBT anecdote alert. We are not voting labour.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907

    Jonathan said:

    No he isn't. Conservatives believe in defending the status quo. The clue is in the name.

    Poppycock. It was a Conservative PM who shattered the status quo on the trade unions, on nationalised industries, on the old-boy network in the City, on exchange controls, on rent controls, on the right to buy. It was another Conservative PM who dismantled the Empire. It was the current Conservative PM who shook up the education sector, presided over the most dramatic reform of welfare since 1945, and who is set to address the EU festering sore if he is re-elected.
    What a load of old deluded rubbish. Can't believe you brought up the Empire FFS.
  • Options
    LestuhLestuh Posts: 50

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Moses_ said:

    isam said:

    9.5m followers

    Russell Brand (@rustyrockets)
    28/04/2015 14:29
    Don't be jealous Dave - I'll run into you at West Ham - when you're not busy with "ordinary people" pic.twitter.com/wB1Paq9xHV

    Good Twitter today was Ed meets Russell about poverty and then Russell goes back to his 3 million mansion and Ed goes back to his 199,999.99p mansion

    Harsh but fair....

    :-)

    I don't like Russell Brand, and I don't want Ed Miliband to be our Prime Minister, but...

    Opposition leader meets the most popular person who talks about politics in the country with people under 30, and said personality endorses his party/tweets negatively to 9.5m about the PM

    I don't think it can hurt Labours chances
    I agree. He is a fool, but a fool with a following.
    I've seen Brand a few times at the Edinburgh fringe. The first time was literally with one man and a goat- and he went off his routine to chat up a girl in the audience.

    Brand is not a fool. He is very observant, and intelligent. His comedy is full of compassion and pathos. Even when he veers into his anti capitalist line, he still shows humanity.
    Fools are often intelligent. Boris, Jacob RM, Ed Miliband all spring to mind.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg is no fool.

    As I think (Sean Fear?) has been said on here before, Labour love it when people like Stephen Hawking and Stephen Fry endorse them because they are seen to be very intelligent. It allows Labour to self-congratulate themselves as the intelligent party, and portray the Conservatives the stupid party, thus reinforcing their original intellectual laziness.

    The common thread is that arts, media, and research science are creative industries, very dependent on public funding, and their innovation is often based on taking anti-establishment positions. It's not surprising their celebrities lean Left.

    Conversely, there are plenty of very intelligent people in business, finance, law and technology who are entrepreneurial, depend on a stable and efficient economy, and derive their prosperity from the health of the private sector. It's not surprising they lean Right. But they're not on the TV as much.
    Just to parse and re-order that a bit - are you really claiming that innovation in research science is often based on taking anti-establishment positions? And that this anti-establishment position is also dependent on public funding?

    Disregarding the weird contradiction in the above - is that a good thing or not?
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Jonathan said:

    No he isn't. Conservatives believe in defending the status quo. The clue is in the name.

    Poppycock. It was a Conservative PM who shattered the status quo on the trade unions, on nationalised industries, on the old-boy network in the City, on exchange controls, on rent controls, on the right to buy. It was another Conservative PM who dismantled the Empire. It was the current Conservative PM who shook up the education sector, presided over the most dramatic reform of welfare since 1945, and who is set to address the EU festering sore if he is re-elected.
    Oh! You are awful, but I do like you. Exits scene falling about laughing. Night all.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    What a load of old deluded rubbish. Can't believe you brought up the Empire FFS.

    You need to do some learning. Look up Harold Macmillan.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907

    Jonathan said:

    What a load of old deluded rubbish. Can't believe you brought up the Empire FFS.

    You need to do some learning. Look up Harold Macmillan.
    Attlee started decolonisation with India. Tories, as ever, just carried on a good idea. Macmillan was best of a bad bunch mind.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
    You what? Yougov glued the needle down 2 weeks ago to exclude volatility and excluded the signal as well as the noise. No one pays them any attention any more. Last night was clearly an outlier by their standards.
    I am already missing "Tory most seats is now nailed on. Tory majority is within touching distance". It was such fun.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Speedy said:

    To conclude tonight, everything is static as usual.
    Also I agree with this:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3h3 hours ago
    Miliband-Brand interview will be seen by more people than watch C4N or Newsnight...more importantly, people who would prob not watch either.

    Sadly, kids in the States don't get to vote in UK elections.
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
    You what? Yougov glued the needle down 2 weeks ago to exclude volatility and excluded the signal as well as the noise. No one pays them any attention any more. Last night was clearly an outlier by their standards.
    I am already missing "Tory most seats is now nailed on. Tory majority is within touching distance". It was such fun.
    You're missing fantasy quotes that you just made up? Weird.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Tomorrow being 9 days before polling day is, relatively speaking, Sheffield rally 1992 day.

    After tonight's Yougov there aren't many PB Hodges declaring "We are alright".
    You what? Yougov glued the needle down 2 weeks ago to exclude volatility and excluded the signal as well as the noise. No one pays them any attention any more. Last night was clearly an outlier by their standards.
    I am already missing "Tory most seats is now nailed on. Tory majority is within touching distance". It was such fun.
    I think Tory most seats is quite likely.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Attlee started decolonisation with India.

    Yes he did - and in such an incompetent way that it was an absolute, unmitigated, world-class disaster, a major stain on British history, leading to the horrors of partition and a death toll which makes Blair's adventures look like a stroll in the park.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.
    No he isn't. Conservatives believe in defending the status quo. The clue is in the name.
    If it's in a name then for Labour It's the afterbirth that most worry about.

    History shows every time that the incoming government have to deal with this after Labour are turfed out.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Moses

    'Wednesday's Times front page:
    Labour chief given £1.5m shares from tax haven
    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
    10:35 PM - 28 Apr 2015'

    Labour troughers at it again.
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    Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Moses_ said:

    notme said:

    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 4m4 minutes ago
    Tory press release: "living standards 2.2% up from Lab's Recession. Q4 2014 disposable income £4,187, Q2 2010 £4,178". Actually 0.22% rise

    It's up by a lot more than that for the 2 million extra people in work.
    Is it?

    Does that include those on Zero hours contracts?
    You cant just say 'zero hours contract', and then somehow you cancel out the fact that 2 million more people are in work.

    Its the equivalent of pointing at someone who has just won a spelling bee, and saying, yeah but you smell.

    A figure that is truly shocking. A figure that no politician, predicting it in 2010 would have been taken seriously. Laughed from the rafters.

    Some of those jobs will be zero hours, some will be part time. But a great many are full time and permanent. Also, a hint, many full time permanent staff start off part time and temporary.

    It is a jobs miracle.
    Ok will stand corrected on this but the job gains under this coalition were 80% approx full time. This was announced on the main news channels. Of the 20% will be part time and of course zeros.

    Like I said I will be more than happily corrected by someone who perhaps is knowledgable about the distribution.

    ''Zero hours contracts'' are the opiate to keep labour faithful comatose.

    What has happened is the opposite of what labour claimed would happen after the election.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    edited April 2015

    Jonathan said:

    Attlee started decolonisation with India.

    Yes he did - and in such an incompetent way that it was an absolute, unmitigated, world-class disaster, a major stain on British history, leading to the horrors of partition and a death toll which makes Blair's adventures look like a stroll in the park.
    I guess you are one of those Tories who just see socialists as inferior in every conceivable way
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    What a load of old deluded rubbish. Can't believe you brought up the Empire FFS.

    You need to do some learning. Look up Harold Macmillan.
    Attlee started decolonisation with India. Tories, as ever, just carried on a good idea. Macmillan was best of a bad bunch mind.
    Who initiated the NI peace talks?

    This could get very silly.

    The object of either party is to amend change alter and as they see it improve the governance of the country and the well being of the population.

    Labour appear to have a need to be liked, and therefore have a tendency to recoil from the hard or unpopular decisions. The Tory party are more willing to take a hit if they consider it to be in the long term interest. They don't need to be loved in the same way.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jonathan said:

    Attlee started decolonisation with India.

    Yes he did - and in such an incompetent way that it was an absolute, unmitigated, world-class disaster, a major stain on British history, leading to the horrors of partition and a death toll which makes Blair's adventures look like a stroll in the park.
    Attlee didnt end the Mandate in Palestine very neatly either.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    Speedy said:

    To conclude tonight, everything is static as usual.
    Also I agree with this:

    Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 3h3 hours ago
    Miliband-Brand interview will be seen by more people than watch C4N or Newsnight...more importantly, people who would prob not watch either.


    Goodnight.

    So the lefty media is proclaiming that 'Ed's played a blinder'. Oh dear. This rarely ends well.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,132

    BTW, who is this Russell Brand fellow? I have a hazy idea that he's some kind of tedious comedian, do I need to know any more?

    He isn't a tedious comedian he is a tedious 'comedian'.

    And he has a monumentally high opinion of himself.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    tyson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Attlee started decolonisation with India.

    Yes he did - and in such an incompetent way that it was an absolute, unmitigated, world-class disaster, a major stain on British history, leading to the horrors of partition and a death toll which makes Blair's adventures look like a stroll in the park.
    I guess you are one of those Tories who just see socialists as inferior in very conceivable way
    Unfair indeed, but it's reciprocated by many on the other side so no sense in either side getting uppity about it I should think.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970


    I would like a Labour party that understands and incentivises aspiration, that uses the power of the state to deliver equality of opportunity and to ensure (not aspire to) a decent standard of living for all. I want one that advocates solidarity at home and abroad.

    My Labour party would not care who provided services, but it would ensure that they were delivered to the very highest standards and that employees who worked in the state's name - even if they did not work for the state - were paid a living wage. Anti-discrimination legislation - too right; but also an absolute freedom to offend and to express any view, no matter how repugnant. The bedroom tax; my Labour party would understand that policy making should be evidence-based, not arbitrary. The EU? Hmmm, on balance probably yes, but not as it is now.

    I'd write more and better, but I'm on the phone.

    Thanks Southam.

    The only thing is, there's hardly a word of that I would disagree with, and I think not a single word David Cameron would disagree with (except maybe the freedom to offend bit, where he's a shade on the Harriet side of the argument compared with me and, it seems, you).

    You are describing a centre-right party, basically one-nation Conservatism.

    I should hope we want the same outcomes. But I suspect my view of the state as an enabler and guarantor is not one shared by even One Nation Tories. I want the state interfering in the market by, for example, insisting all companies that get money from the state for services provided pay a living wage; and much more tightly regulating privately-owned public utilities. I am also totally opposed to selling off housing association properties and in favour of higher taxes for the best off. But, that said, I am a capitalist and I believe strongly in the profit motive, so there's a bit of me - probably a significant bit - that sees the world in the same way many Tories do. Put it this way, I get where Conservatism comes from. It's a coherent philosophy, but I start from a pisition - born of experience, no doubt - that the state is a good thing and should not be rolled back as a matter of principle.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2015
    tyson said:

    I guess you are one of those Tories who just see socialists as inferior in very conceivable way

    I'm just bemused by the myth that has been created over Attlee by the left. There were some good things, but overall it was a disaster of a government, and India was unquestionably one of the most appalling failures:

    In the riots which preceded the partition in the Punjab region, between 200,000 to 500,000 people were killed in the retributive genocide. UNHCR estimates 14 million Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims were displaced during the partition; it was the largest mass migration in human history

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India
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