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FalseFlag said:

Flightpath1 said:

franklyn said:

RobD said:

franklyn said:

How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway

Spain would be apoplectic if we did that.

Simply not true; there are British and American nuclear subs in and out of Gibraltar all the time; Spain is part of NATO.

There are other issues with moving the subs, like where they load their missiles. It would be expensive but we could do it. The SNP hope the kick in the bollocks will numb us stone dead.
But my guess is we would base them interim in the US.
Moving to south wales just sets up another nationalist aunt sally.
Barrow or Portsmouth. All our navy and ship building would be there anyway.
Save our country and NATO by voting tory is the best option.

Don't want them in England, let the Americans pay for their own weapons.

Maybe we could recreate the Warsaw Pact and back-up Brother Putin.

RobD said:

@Tim_B .. wondering how you are going to send your ballot back, just regular first class post?

Yup - already have. I sent a get well card to a friend in the UK last week - 4 days.

This was the first stamp I've bought in many years. It was quite a surprise. Used to be there were domestic rates and then UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, far east, Philipines etc.

Now they have 'forever' stamps - great idea - and just 2 rates: USA (presumably including Canada) and other, which is a nice circular stamp.

You can only vote as an ex-pat for 15 years, so at most I'll be able to vote in 1 more election.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@IainDale: Lord Oakeshott. What a twat. #newsnight

https://twitter.com/IainDale

People should hear this.

Nick Clegg is actually trying to defend Cyril Smith. His "alleged" and "claimed" comments are disgusting.

@Dair

'Nick Clegg is actually trying to defend Cyril Smith. His "alleged" and "claimed" comments are disgusting.'

Haven't seen it but did see Clegg making a £ 5 billion pledge on Education,has he forgotten his previous pledge on Education,who on earth is advising him.

DavidL said:

Dair said:

DavidL said:

Dair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.

don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.

Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.

You linked to a £50k public subsidy and as I understand it an Advocate can expect to take home aruond £200k to £250k. So £50k is a big chunk of that money. Frankly even if this is an unusual year, it's still a huge chunk of the public purse.

And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.

The inability to read numbers is certainly consistent with your support for the SNP and indeed most of your posts. In the year I linked to my total earnings from SLAB including outlays and VAT was £6500. I really don't know where you are getting this £50K from- it is a total fantasy.

Your figures about what advocates earn are also erroneous.

2012/13
DAVID L******* £50,100 £300 £2,100 £52,400 £10,500 £62,900

hunchman said:

Dair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@IainDale: Lord Oakeshott. What a twat. #newsnight

https://twitter.com/IainDale

People should hear this.

Nick Clegg is actually trying to defend Cyril Smith. His "alleged" and "claimed" comments are disgusting.

Well pointed out Dair. And remember that he was fulsome in his praise of Mr C Smith at his funeral as well. In addition, its not well known that Clegg worked under Leon Brittan when EU trade commissioner - only saying but no guilt by association there obviously.

That's a genuinely disgusting smear.

rcs1000 said:

FalseFlag said:

The Russians don't maintain much of a fleet, no real interest in full spectrum dominance, more live and let live. It's a sustainable policy, just look at respective debt levels.

Russia: spending on defence 4.2% of GDP
UK: spending on defence 2.2% of GDP

Russia: 3.2m active and reserve military personnel
UK: 0.2m active and reserve military personnel

Debt levels might have rather more to do with the fact that Russia is the world's largest oil producer and the price of oil - until this year - was running at more than 3x the 15 year average.

But hey, don't let me stop your sycophantic and absurd Putin adoration.

Defensible borders, strange that the US dominates world defence spending and yet is bounded by two oceans. Historically they did have negligible forces.

RobD said:

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

@Tim_B .. wondering how you are going to send your ballot back, just regular first class post?

Yup - already have. I sent a get well card to a friend in the UK last week - 4 days.

This was the first stamp I've bought in many years. It was quite a surprise. Used to be there were domestic rates and then UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, far east, Philipines etc.

Now they have 'forever' stamps - great idea - and just 2 rates: USA (presumably including Canada) and other, which is a nice circular stamp.

You can only vote as an ex-pat for 15 years, so at most I'll be able to vote in 1 more election.

Whenever I go to the post office they alway stick on a crappy barcode stamp from their printers. I might ask for a fancy one to go with my tax return which I'll be posting at the same time (hopefully, if my ballot has arrived today!!)

My post office is a satellite one in a room in City Hall, set up for residents convenience, where the 1 person there spends most of the day reading. So all stamps are regular stamps. If I go to the main post office they put all sorts of stuff on it.

hunchman said:

Whilst I'm in favour of the phone pollsters over the internet pollsters - more representative samples, 5 out of 6 most accurate in the 2010 GE etc it still concerns me about the shy Kipper effect that was mentioned in last night's thread. I wouldn't think this would change the Tory Labour lead too much either way though - a lot of the Kipper vote is coming from people who didn't vote last time and maybe more of a weightings issue rather than a shy Kipper effect. Ashcroft polling apart from the Thurrock poll lately seems unambiguously poor for UKIP in general though. I'm on 2 UKIP seats personally - Clacton and one of Thurrock or Thanet South - lean towards the former rather than the latter (through personal hope that UKIP is lead long term by Carswell) but lets see.

Good night all.

Internet pollsters are always higher for insurgent parties. In France, they gave higher numbers for the FN; in Spain for Podemos; in Finland for The Finns.

In every case, the insurgent party performed in-line with the phone pollsters rather than the internet ones.

So the NATS are now over 50 per cent on face to face poll (TNS), on telephone poll (ICM) and on internet panel poll (SURVATION).

Can we now call the election and open market on SNP winning the lot.

hunchman said:

RobD said:

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

@Tim_B .. wondering how you are going to send your ballot back, just regular first class post?

Yup - already have. I sent a get well card to a friend in the UK last week - 4 days.

This was the first stamp I've bought in many years. It was quite a surprise. Used to be there were domestic rates and then UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, far east, Philipines etc.

Now they have 'forever' stamps - great idea - and just 2 rates: USA (presumably including Canada) and other, which is a nice circular stamp.

You can only vote as an ex-pat for 15 years, so at most I'll be able to vote in 1 more election.

Whenever I go to the post office they alway stick on a crappy barcode stamp from their printers. I might ask for a fancy one to go with my tax return which I'll be posting at the same time (hopefully, if my ballot has arrived today!!)

Lets not get into the cost of stamps. The fact that rather a lot of that goes towards keeping the Royal Mail pension scheme afloat may have a little bit to do with it me thinks!

We're talking about USPS stamps, and yes they are much cheaper.

I wonder how long Hillary will remain the 'inevitable' Democratic candidate. Not only are the NYT, WP, NY Daily News and New Yorker leading the probing into the various Clinton Foundation issues at the moment (where it seems an astounding 85% of the charitable donations get eaten up in salaries, overhead, travel and other expenses), but she is not even doing well in the polls against far lesser known GOP candidates which Dems dismiss as the clown bus. Sure, Hillary is comfortably ahead in the generic polls, but if you look at the swing states where her name recognition advantage is dulled (e.g. Florida) there is no advantage. Both JEB and Rubio lead her in Florida. And in Virginia, from today's polls, JEB leads her and none of the 'clown bus' is more than 5% adrift from the anointed one. Last week, polls in Colorado and Iwa showed much the same thing. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

I guess we might be seeing more headlines like this:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417519/are-democratic-insiders-starting-panic-about-hillary-john-fund

MTimT said:

I wonder how long Hillary will remain the 'inevitable' Democratic candidate. Not only are the NYT, WP, NY Daily News and New Yorker leading the probing into the various Clinton Foundation issues at the moment (where it seems an astounding 85% of the charitable donations get eaten up in salaries, overhead, travel and other expenses), but she is not even doing well in the polls against far lesser known GOP candidates which Dems dismiss as the clown bus. Sure, Hillary is comfortably ahead in the generic polls, but if you look at the swing states where her name recognition advantage is dulled (e.g. Florida) there is no advantage. Both JEB and Rubio lead her in Florida. And in Virginia, from today's polls, JEB leads her and none of the 'clown bus' is more than 5% adrift from the anointed one. Last week, polls in Colorado and Iwa showed much the same thing. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

I guess we might be seeing more headlines like this:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417519/are-democratic-insiders-starting-panic-about-hillary-john-fund

Damaged goods. Get on second tier Dem candidates for the nomination. Elizabeth Warren?

RobD said:

KentRising said:

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

@Tim_B .. wondering how you are going to send your ballot back, just regular first class post?

Yup - already have. I sent a get well card to a friend in the UK last week - 4 days.

This was the first stamp I've bought in many years. It was quite a surprise. Used to be there were domestic rates and then UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, far east, Philipines etc.

Now they have 'forever' stamps - great idea - and just 2 rates: USA (presumably including Canada) and other, which is a nice circular stamp.

You can only vote as an ex-pat for 15 years, so at most I'll be able to vote in 1 more election.

Whenever I go to the post office they alway stick on a crappy barcode stamp from their printers. I might ask for a fancy one to go with my tax return which I'll be posting at the same time (hopefully, if my ballot has arrived today!!)

My post office is a satellite one in a room in City Hall, set up for residents convenience, where the 1 person there spends most of the day reading. So all stamps are regular stamps. If I go to the main post office they put all sorts of stuff on it.

The barcode stamps, put on parcels from the UK to abroad, are a national embarrassment. Yes, I do not exaggerate. When I get parcels from Canada or Australia they come with nice stamps of elk or koalas. Ireland even has dolphins. In return, from the UK, they get barcodes.

When my mum sends me my mail from home, it usually comes in a big envelope with an enormous gold stamp with HM on it.

Something like this you mean?
http://wilding.norvic-philatelics.co.uk/~ian/gbstamps/modern_gb_on_cover/100508-lfos_goldhoriz.jpg

If one discounts Ashcroft's fantasy national poll, which gives the Tories a lead in the North, then it is even on last night's polls.One three point lead each and a 1 pointer with You Gov. Labour still in the strongest position to form the next government.

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

I wonder how long Hillary will remain the 'inevitable' Democratic candidate. Not only are the NYT, WP, NY Daily News and New Yorker leading the probing into the various Clinton Foundation issues at the moment (where it seems an astounding 85% of the charitable donations get eaten up in salaries, overhead, travel and other expenses), but she is not even doing well in the polls against far lesser known GOP candidates which Dems dismiss as the clown bus. Sure, Hillary is comfortably ahead in the generic polls, but if you look at the swing states where her name recognition advantage is dulled (e.g. Florida) there is no advantage. Both JEB and Rubio lead her in Florida. And in Virginia, from today's polls, JEB leads her and none of the 'clown bus' is more than 5% adrift from the anointed one. Last week, polls in Colorado and Iwa showed much the same thing. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

I guess we might be seeing more headlines like this:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417519/are-democratic-insiders-starting-panic-about-hillary-john-fund

Damaged goods. Get on second tier Dem candidates for the nomination. Elizabeth Warren?

I don't think we'll see the other possible winners until it becomes clear that Hillary is not inevitable. Then there'll be a veritable gold rush of serious candidates entering the fray. Still not sure that Warren will want any part of that at this stage.

Personally, I am not convinced that Sanders, Webb, Chafee or O'Malley could win the nomination, let alone the general. O'Malley introduced 40 new taxes in MD during his governorship, including the much derided 'rain tax'. He would get slaughtered come November 2016.

roserees64 Not at all, especially if the Tories squeeze the UKIP vote down to about 10% as polls show is beginning to happen and with Labour's Scottish bloodbath

YouGov is the new Gold Standard

Ooh Spreadex offering me 5.5 on Tories in Great Grimsby.

Professor Stephen Hawkin has called David Cameron a ' right twat ' , I wonder what sparked that comment?

RobD said:

KentRising said:

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

Tim_B said:

RobD said:

@Tim_B .. wondering how you are going to send your ballot back, just regular first class post?

Yup - already have. I sent a get well card to a friend in the UK last week - 4 days.

This was the first stamp I've bought in many years. It was quite a surprise. Used to be there were domestic rates and then UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, far east, Philipines etc.

Now they have 'forever' stamps - great idea - and just 2 rates: USA (presumably including Canada) and other, which is a nice circular stamp.

You can only vote as an ex-pat for 15 years, so at most I'll be able to vote in 1 more election.

Whenever I go to the post office they alway stick on a crappy barcode stamp from their printers. I might ask for a fancy one to go with my tax return which I'll be posting at the same time (hopefully, if my ballot has arrived today!!)

My post office is a satellite one in a room in City Hall, set up for residents convenience, where the 1 person there spends most of the day reading. So all stamps are regular stamps. If I go to the main post office they put all sorts of stuff on it.

The barcode stamps, put on parcels from the UK to abroad, are a national embarrassment. Yes, I do not exaggerate. When I get parcels from Canada or Australia they come with nice stamps of elk or koalas. Ireland even has dolphins. In return, from the UK, they get barcodes.

When my mum sends me my mail from home, it usually comes in a big envelope with an enormous gold stamp with HM on it.

Something the UK Post Office might want to think about is the 'forever' stamp for domestic mail. You buy the stamp, currently $0.49 I think, and it is valid for a standard card or letter. Even if the price subsequently increases it is still valid for a standard card or letter. Hence 'forever'.

Regarding bar coding, all domestic mail delivered here is bar coded. I've used Microsoft Word to bar code my envelopes for a long time. I don't send many letters any more.

how susceptible is the new individual voter registration to fraud? as i heard nearly half a million registered on the last day 20/4/15, that could swing a lot a seats couldn't it?

Regarding Hillary, this is early days - the election is over 18 months away. The whole Clinton Foundation issue is still building. The Foundation has already announced that it will refile 5 years of tax returns.

This all just feeds into the Clinton fatigue and lack of trust and honest factor.

The book doesn't come out until May 5, and already the NY Times and Washington Post - among others - are collaborating with the author on further reporting and research. In the case of the Times, they have put Pulitzer prize winning Jo Becker on the story. These are liberal newspapers.

If the reporting in the book is accurate, and we do not know that yet, Hillary is going to have to answer some serious and detailed questions.

Her numbers are starting to wobble a bit.

Tim_B said:

Regarding Hillary, this is early days - the election is over 18 months away. The whole Clinton Foundation issue is still building. The Foundation has already announced that it will refile 5 years of tax returns.

This all just feeds into the Clinton fatigue and lack of trust and honest factor.

The book doesn't come out until May 5, and already the NY Times and Washington Post - among others - are collaborating with the author on further reporting and research. In the case of the Times, they have put Pulitzer prize winning Jo Becker on the story. These are liberal newspapers.

If the reporting in the book is accurate, and we do not know that yet, Hillary is going to have to answer some serious and detailed questions.

She'll hose up easily I reckon.

Pulpstar The LDs will go with the largest party, not necessarily the Tories, there is only 1 Tory MP in Scotland. More significant is tonight's yougov Tory lead with UKIP down 2, the Tories up 2 if the Tories squeeze UKIP down another 2 they will be on 37% and have a clear lead as largest party

HYUFD said:

roserees64 Not at all, especially if the Tories squeeze the UKIP vote down to about 10% as polls show is beginning to happen and with Labour's Scottish bloodbath

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/592408416691322882

HYUFD said:

Sunil That was last week, tonight's yougov covers the last 24 hours

Just one day, HYUFD. Let's see what happens over the remaining 6 days of this week.

roserees64 said:

Professor Stephen Hawkin has called David Cameron a ' right twat ' , I wonder what sparked that comment?

roserees64 said:

Professor Stephen Hawkin has called David Cameron a ' right twat ' , I wonder what sparked that comment?

Too many tweets, I imagine.

Rogerdamus......

The prospect of a post-election deal between Labour and the Scottish National Party makes one in four voters less likely to support Ed Miliband’s party, according to a new survey.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-prospect-of-laboursnp-coalition-makes-one-in-four-voters-less-likely-to-support-ed-miliband-says-survey-10208223.html

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's a Survation poll for the Record with the Nats on 51%

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDoK8NGXIAQefU1.jpg

That must mean 59 - 0. Coalition loses 12.

The SNP aren't going to win Orkney & Shetland. Lab and Con supporters will vote tactically for Carmichael.

SouthamObserver said:

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?

It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.

As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.

That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.

Shurely shome mishtake.

Constitutional fun with the LDs? Like the last few years? FPTP will actually benefit LDs now, so I don't expect any further push for PR. DUP will be happy with a bit more NI spending.

Somehow don't think your theme of 'Tory/DUP/LD chaos' is going to strike the same fear into English hearts and minds as the socialist lady from N. Britain.