Just realised double brilliance of the Tories' Miliband=Sturgeon meme. Yes, it worries rUK voters into voting Tory, or quitting Labour, but it also annoys even MORE Scots into voting SNP, which guarantees the total wipe-out of Labour North of the Border, perhaps forever.
Thus the further surge to Sturgeon, in recent days, destroying the last Labour citadels in Caledonia. An extermination event - which hobbles Labour for all time.
No wonder this Tory attack line angers Labour so much. It makes it impossible for Miliband to really win this election, even if he scrapes a plurality, but it also makes Labour virtually unelectable in future.
The problem is that it doesn't work as a double whammy.
Yes in Scotland it is a very positive message for the SNP, so they get a lot more votes.
In England it is a negative message. Negative campaigning does not work in multi-party elections. You have no control where these votes go. In England they are just (maybe more) likely to go UKIP than Conservative.
I just love that Twitter has for some reason encouraged even billionaires to act like normal people in sharing unscreened and very normal thoughts about often very mundane things. Who knew what the billionaire powerbrokers of the past really thought about things? But now you have Rupert Murdoch trolling politicians and the Good Lord responding in, let's say, unfiltered fashion to such minor things, to give but two examples. It's great. Not that I've ever used twitter myself - I don't think such a restrictive character limit fits my style.
Updated SPUD after 4 polls today / 21 in total (11 Pollsters/Organisations) The truest test of the direction of the political wind
CON +6/-2 LAB +1/-12 UKIP -2/+6 LD -1/NC GREEN +3/+4
If someone wants to do a Scottish version, I will happily franchise the formula... I advise calling it "TATTIES" (Tories and Trots Trail Independence Expectant Scots"
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
It was in the 2010 manifesto. The policy is a vote in government time. I doubt it would be whipped. Your logic about being a LD supporter but turning against them for joining a tory coalition but happy to see the tories carry on does not tie up. Try again.
I haven't turned against them - the Coalition has been a good thing. Unfortunately it's been good for the Tories and not for the Lib Dems. Any future Tory Government would be very, very different.
I sometimes travel by taxi. That does not make me a cabbie.
One doesn't have to be a cabbie to say something on their behalf of course. Though it would be best to know the world and insights of cabbies intimately if one were to do so. The Good Lord may not be a pollster himself, exactly, but his association with a lot of pollsters probably permits him enough connection to speak up for them if he wants.
There's a bit of poetic justice in that so many Scottish Labour MPs campaigned against AV.
Had it gone through, they might have actually saved a decent number of the seats if a lot of Tory voters 2nd-pref'ed for them, since after all independence voters are in the minority in most constituencies.
We might look back and say Friday was the day, when the opportunistic little shit Ed Miliband tried and failed to tar David Cameron with the blood of drowned migrants
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Would you want Labour to try and get in government if they finish with less seats than the Tories? It would trigger a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines about coups.
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
ICM tables were good for tories too. Probably better than the headline figures.
It was in the 2010 manifesto. The policy is a vote in government time. I doubt it would be whipped. Your logic about being a LD supporter but turning against them for joining a tory coalition but happy to see the tories carry on does not tie up. Try again.
I haven't turned against them - the Coalition has been a good thing. Unfortunately it's been good for the Tories and not for the Lib Dems. Any future Tory Government would be very, very different.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Perhaps some of the ghastly Labour droners from south of the border, can step up to the plate?
Got a real '92 feeling about this. The media started gunning for Kinnock & Major upped his tempo. May be v wrong but somethings shifting. Could be the SNP issue cos Ive heard lots talking about it. Are things turning blue all of sudden?
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Well if SNP do well and we get a Tory govt as a result, theyll be hammed next time much like the LDs are today.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Your right of course. However, moving right isn't going to help them get any votes back in Scotland.
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
The Tory candidate fighting Nigel Farage for South Thanet has been exposed as the owner of a business advising EU migrants on how to claim tax credits:
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Your right of course. However, moving right isn't going to help them get any votes back in Scotland.
And moving further to the right would also mean the North of England and Wales going the same way for Labour as Scotland.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
A toss-up with a 6 point lead? Your seat, maybe.
By rights it should be described as Soubry's seat, until it changes hands. If it does.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
A toss-up with a 6 point lead? Your seat, maybe.
By rights it should be described as Soubry's seat, until it changes hands. If it does.
Technically isn't it no-one's seat at present? If it is technically the case we have no MPs at present.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Perhaps some of the ghastly Labour droners from south of the border, can step up to the plate?
Watcher- you are not watching very well. The Labour posters here are and have always been constrained. I can't remember one calling most seats for Labour even.
We realise though that the Tories have to be doing very well indeed to get back, and even on todays polls it doesn't seem like they are quite doing enough.
So Tick Tock- not hubristic. Until there is a day giving all polls of 5% Tory leads it'll remain thus.
Tories need to spend the rest of the campaign on the economy. It's likely they will get reasonable GDP stats to play with.
They don't need to bring up Scotland any more. Every time Nicola is in the national media, it brings the subject to the forefront of everyone's minds.
They can, or course, continue to mercilessly tease Labour about Scotland on every occasion that Labour deny a deal with the SNP.
If they get the next week right, I can see them getting the 290-295 that they will need to carry on. If they get that many and Clegg wins, then I can't see LDs not backing Tories as they would be so far ahead on Labour on votes and seats that it would impossible to back Labour.
Still short of a majority as things stand, but things could change. I'd say CONS are in a better position than they were ten days before the election in 1992.
Have SLAB hit their floor in the mid20s? At least they don't need to worry about finishing below the Tories in Scotland I guess. Small mercies for them.
SLAB floor is about 18% going by the polling figures on certainty to vote and certainty to stay SLAB.
We are getting into Czechoslovakia territory btw.
18 months after a No vote the two countries went their own way without further referenda.
Just realised double brilliance of the Tories' Miliband=Sturgeon meme. Yes, it worries rUK voters into voting Tory, or quitting Labour, but it also annoys even MORE Scots into voting SNP, which guarantees the total wipe-out of Labour North of the Border, perhaps forever.
Thus the further surge to Sturgeon, in recent days, destroying the last Labour citadels in Caledonia. An extermination event - which hobbles Labour for all time.
No wonder this Tory attack line angers Labour so much. It makes it impossible for Miliband to really win this election, even if he scrapes a plurality, but it also makes Labour virtually unelectable in future.
The problem is that it doesn't work as a double whammy.
Yes in Scotland it is a very positive message for the SNP, so they get a lot more votes.
In England it is a negative message. Negative campaigning does not work in multi-party elections. You have no control where these votes go. In England they are just (maybe more) likely to go UKIP than Conservative.
And they are burning bridges that Ruth Davidson is trying very hard to rebuild.
Yup. And the SNP and the Scots themselves will get so much hate for this from Labour - the political tension will be unbearable.
I see Nicola's still gabbling on about how she's going to work with Labour in Westminster. Why doesn't she put a sock in it? Either she's too hubristic or stupid to see how she's destroying Labour's chances, or she's calculated she can get more out of the Tories.
Which brings us to the question of what Cameron's relationship with the Jock 50 will be. What can he bribe them with to make sure their voters don't switch back to Labour?
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
Got a real '92 feeling about this. The media started gunning for Kinnock & Major upped his tempo. May be v wrong but somethings shifting. Could be the SNP issue cos Ive heard lots talking about it. Are things turning blue all of sudden?
I was with someone today who is significantly involved in a very politicised segment of the economy. Not worried about Labour or the Tories winning. Very worried about Sturgeon having any influence.
Tories need to spend the rest of the campaign on the economy. It's likely they will get reasonable GDP stats to play with.
They don't need to bring up Scotland any more. Every time Nicola is in the national media, it brings the subject to the forefront of everyone's minds.
They can, or course, continue to mercilessly tease Labour about Scotland on every occasion that Labour deny a deal with the SNP.
If they get the next week right, I can see them getting the 290-295 that they will need to carry on. If they get that many and Clegg wins, then I can't see LDs not backing Tories as they would be so far ahead on Labour on votes and seats that it would impossible to back Labour.
Still short of a majority as things stand, but things could change. I'd say CONS are in a better position than they were ten days before the election in 1992.
Don't be daft. The Tories were defending a 100 seat majority and only had to hold seats. Today the Tories have to make gains to winca majority. Obviously a much harder task.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Would you want Labour to try and get in government if they finish with less seats than the Tories? It would trigger a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines about coups.
There is a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines e.g. about Stalin at the moment. The secret is to just ignore them. That's the British way with hysterics.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Perhaps some of the ghastly Labour droners from south of the border, can step up to the plate?
Watcher- you are not watching very well. The Labour posters here are and have always been constrained. I can't remember one calling most seats for Labour even.
Weirdly, it does seem there are more Tory supporters calling it as most seats for Labour at least.
I sometimes travel by taxi. That does not make me a cabbie.
One doesn't have to be a cabbie to say something on their behalf of course. Though it would be best to know the world and insights of cabbies intimately if one were to do so. The Good Lord may not be a pollster himself, exactly, but his association with a lot of pollsters probably permits him enough connection to speak up for them if he wants.
But Lord A thinking that you can present a string of polls conducted by more than one pollster as a series, is like a cabbie thinking that Chelsea is south of the river.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
A toss-up with a 6 point lead? Your seat, maybe.
By rights it should be described as Soubry's seat, until it changes hands. If it does.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
A toss-up with a 6 point lead? Your seat, maybe.
By rights it should be described as Soubry's seat, until it changes hands. If it does.
Technically isn't it no-one's seat at present? If it is technically the case we have no MPs at present.
And I reckon we've managed pretty well without them...
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Perhaps some of the ghastly Labour droners from south of the border, can step up to the plate?
Watcher- you are not watching very well. The Labour posters here are and have always been constrained. I can't remember one calling most seats for Labour even.
We realise though that the Tories have to be doing very well indeed to get back, and even on todays polls it doesn't seem like they are quite doing enough.
So Tick Tock- not hubristic. Until there is a day giving all polls of 5% Tory leads it'll remain thus.
Odd. I've made no mention of hubris - is it a matter that's weighing heavily on your mind in 'Firenze' this evening?
Have SLAB hit their floor in the mid20s? At least they don't need to worry about finishing below the Tories in Scotland I guess. Small mercies for them.
Probably (Ashcroft sub-samples excepted!) - but don't discount the attraction of jumping on the SNP bandwagon at the last minute.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
The decision for independence was made by the Scots and is not a plaything for the political parties. Anyone including the SNP who try and question the result of the referendum is in trouble.
This election has been lost by Labour in Scotland not won by the SNP. The big issues here such as how will the financial system work in the future, defence, international relationships and welfare reform have been mostly ignored while issues such as the NHS, house building and education which only apply to England have often been at the forefront of the news. No wonder the SNP are heading for success. This is an English and partially Welsh election not a UK election.
While not mentioned often the East Lothian question is still a burning issue. Up here we cant see how Milliband could do a deal with the SNP. If he uses their votes to change the English NHS or English education system he is surely putting Labour's future at risk. The best he can do is agree with the SNP on the big issues and work with the Lib Dems only for English laws.
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.
Mhairi Black getting featured on main BBC news at 10.
Is she the one who's going to beat Murphy?
No Mhairi Black will take Dougie Alexander's seat. Murphy will be beaten by Kristen Oswald. There's no wiki for her but I would guess from her name she is Jewish or Jewish background which will trump Murphy's Henry Jackson Zionism in Newton Mearns.
Tories need to spend the rest of the campaign on the economy. It's likely they will get reasonable GDP stats to play with.
They don't need to bring up Scotland any more. Every time Nicola is in the national media, it brings the subject to the forefront of everyone's minds.
They can, or course, continue to mercilessly tease Labour about Scotland on every occasion that Labour deny a deal with the SNP.
If they get the next week right, I can see them getting the 290-295 that they will need to carry on. If they get that many and Clegg wins, then I can't see LDs not backing Tories as they would be so far ahead on Labour on votes and seats that it would impossible to back Labour.
Still short of a majority as things stand, but things could change. I'd say CONS are in a better position than they were ten days before the election in 1992.
Don't be daft. The Tories were defending a 100 seat majority and only had to hold seats. Today the Tories have to make gains to winca majority. Obviously a much harder task.
I was referring to polling and momentum really.
Granted it's harder to defend and win, then defend only, which is why I still think even if momentum continues with the blues through to next Thursday then a majority is still very unlikely.
Meanwhile Baltimore is suffering and may be about to explode.
The protests have turned violent, the street gangs are turning on the police, with 7 cops with broken bones and 1 'unresponsive'.
Stores are being looted and cars (mainly police) burned and destroyed. The police were clearly unprepared for the escalation of the unrest and have not thus far handled it well. Unless they get things under control by nightfall - just over an hour - it will be a long night.
To my knowledge the Baltimore PD have yet to release any formal statement regarding the details of how Freddie Gray died in police custody 9 days ago, with a 'nearly severed' spine and a crushed windpipe.
That is not a good sign for the police.
The mayor of Baltimore gave a news conference earlier, and she said that we will make space for those who wish to destroy. She must be regretting it by now.
Comments
Yes in Scotland it is a very positive message for the SNP, so they get a lot more votes.
In England it is a negative message. Negative campaigning does not work in multi-party elections. You have no control where these votes go. In England they are just (maybe more) likely to go UKIP than Conservative.
Sorry, I'm too excitable.....
LAB - 34% (-)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)
Tories up 1, Lab down 1 is quite a seismic move by YG standards.
Correction Tories up 2 Labour n/c
Even more seismic
I sometimes travel by taxi. That does not make me a cabbie.
Latest YouGov poll (26 - 27 Apr):
CON - 35% (+2)
LAB - 34% (-)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)
Will we look back and say today was the day?
Could it be we finally have momentum.
Next few days "interesting"
https://freehdwallpaper.in/walls/squirrel-jump-normal.jpg
The truest test of the direction of the political wind
CON +6/-2
LAB +1/-12
UKIP -2/+6
LD -1/NC
GREEN +3/+4
If someone wants to do a Scottish version, I will happily franchise the formula... I advise calling it "TATTIES" (Tories and Trots Trail Independence Expectant Scots"
History is made, The Sun/YouGov poll has the Tories ahead, and Tom Newton Dunn didn't tweet about it beforehand.
Is he still breathing?
It was in the 2010 manifesto. The policy is a vote in government time. I doubt it would be whipped.
Your logic about being a LD supporter but turning against them for joining a tory coalition but happy to see the tories carry on does not tie up. Try again.
I haven't turned against them - the Coalition has been a good thing. Unfortunately it's been good for the Tories and not for the Lib Dems. Any future Tory Government would be very, very different.
Had it gone through, they might have actually saved a decent number of the seats if a lot of Tory voters 2nd-pref'ed for them, since after all independence voters are in the minority in most constituencies.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/592803551019200512
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
You never know, Populus could be right.
WOW.
However, moving right isn't going to help them get any votes back in Scotland.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/573235/Craig-Mackinlay-website-immigrants-claim-tax-benefit-credit-UK-Nigel-Farage-South-Thanet
There's been a few people polled by ComRes in Con/Lab marginals, so I'm expecting an aggregate marginals poll in the next few days.
Love the way Nick Palmer confidently says Milibands still heading for No.10. Not if this is momentum he isn't.
We realise though that the Tories have to be doing very well indeed to get back, and even on todays polls it doesn't seem like they are quite doing enough.
So Tick Tock- not hubristic. Until there is a day giving all polls of 5% Tory leads it'll remain thus.
They don't need to bring up Scotland any more. Every time Nicola is in the national media, it brings the subject to the forefront of everyone's minds.
They can, or course, continue to mercilessly tease Labour about Scotland on every occasion that Labour deny a deal with the SNP.
If they get the next week right, I can see them getting the 290-295 that they will need to carry on. If they get that many and Clegg wins, then I can't see LDs not backing Tories as they would be so far ahead on Labour on votes and seats that it would impossible to back Labour.
Still short of a majority as things stand, but things could change. I'd say CONS are in a better position than they were ten days before the election in 1992.
We are getting into Czechoslovakia territory btw.
18 months after a No vote the two countries went their own way without further referenda.
I see Nicola's still gabbling on about how she's going to work with Labour in Westminster. Why doesn't she put a sock in it? Either she's too hubristic or stupid to see how she's destroying Labour's chances, or she's calculated she can get more out of the Tories.
Which brings us to the question of what Cameron's relationship with the Jock 50 will be. What can he bribe them with to make sure their voters don't switch back to Labour?
Get it sorted Nicola.
This election has been lost by Labour in Scotland not won by the SNP. The big issues here such as how will the financial system work in the future, defence, international relationships and welfare reform have been mostly ignored while issues such as the NHS, house building and education which only apply to England have often been at the forefront of the news. No wonder the SNP are heading for success. This is an English and partially Welsh election not a UK election.
While not mentioned often the East Lothian question is still a burning issue. Up here we cant see how Milliband could do a deal with the SNP. If he uses their votes to change the English NHS or English education system he is surely putting Labour's future at risk. The best he can do is agree with the SNP on the big issues and work with the Lib Dems only for English laws.
Stage one - smash Labour in Scotland. Job done
Stage two - raise the Jock Terror to clear and immediate danger level. Job done
Stage three - let Labour go early & run out of momentum. Job done
Stage four - blitz finish with major asset Cameron at the front. Job started
Underpinned by consistent don't risk it economic message
Working well me thinks.
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Tuesday's Yorkshire Post:
Deal with the SNP would be 'foolish', says Balls
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Granted it's harder to defend and win, then defend only, which is why I still think even if momentum continues with the blues through to next Thursday then a majority is still very unlikely.
The protests have turned violent, the street gangs are turning on the police, with 7 cops with broken bones and 1 'unresponsive'.
Stores are being looted and cars (mainly police) burned and destroyed. The police were clearly unprepared for the escalation of the unrest and have not thus far handled it well. Unless they get things under control by nightfall - just over an hour - it will be a long night.
To my knowledge the Baltimore PD have yet to release any formal statement regarding the details of how Freddie Gray died in police custody 9 days ago, with a 'nearly severed' spine and a crushed windpipe.
That is not a good sign for the police.
The mayor of Baltimore gave a news conference earlier, and she said that we will make space for those who wish to destroy. She must be regretting it by now.