If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
Do explain what possible reason the SNP has to be "sensible".
Depends on how quickly they want to mess things around for rUK (which they can certainly do as they like, given their numbers). If they want full on chaos right away, they can play the hardest and most obstructionist cards they want, as you suggest. Maybe they will do that. I'm just guessing, based on their general level of canniness, that they'll want to do a little proving they can play ball for a bit first. We'll see.
Roger yesterday started talking about a Labour majority next week, which really cheered me up.
Since then, we've had 3 out 4 polls today with the Tories, 2 of them comfortably and 2 Scotland polls showing SLAB getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker.
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
Do explain what possible reason the SNP has to be "sensible". Everything that sows discord and rancour between English and Scots IS TO THE SNP'S ADVANTAGE. Alex Salmond will be in Westminster, chortling on Question Time every other week about the new things Scots are taking from the English.
The Scots will love it, the English will hate it = win for the SNP.
Meanwhile the SNP are intent on demolishing Labour FOREVER in Scotland, and replacing them, they want to render SLAB extinct, the idea these two parties can cordially ally, long term, is nuts.
It's like the Tories allying with a new Home Counties Forever party intent on taking Sussex, Berks, Oxon, Bucks and Surrey to independence, and destroying the Tories in southeast England. What Tory could emotionally accommodate with that?
If we get a Miliband minority govt, with less votes and seats than the Tories, and entirely reliant on the SNP, it will be intrinsically volatile and incoherent, and will probably fall in short order.
I also wonder how any remaining SLAB MPs would react to such an alliance. Admittedly, this is not looking like too big a problem in terms of numbers but there is a difference between a near death experience and being asked to dig your own grave.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Would you want Labour to try and get in government if they finish with less seats than the Tories? It would trigger a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines about coups.
Yes and having been virtually wiped out in Scotland - it would provoke an immediate constitutional crisis - surely labour mps would see the red lights flashing and let David Cameron form a short term minority government in their own longer term interest
Have SLAB hit their floor in the mid20s? At least they don't need to worry about finishing below the Tories in Scotland I guess. Small mercies for them.
SLAB floor is about 18% going by the polling figures on certainty to vote and certainty to stay SLAB.
We are getting into Czechoslovakia territory btw.
18 months after a No vote the two countries went their own way without further referenda.
Quite often one sees a long term relationship which goes rocky, and then is patched up with a wedding and sighs of relief all round, and then divorce within the year.
Next to no movements thus far on the betting markets in response to today's polls. Sensible punters (unlike excitable political nerds) are probably wisely awaiting a further batch of preferably reliable polls, before deciding whether or not the tide has turned and if so to what likely extent. It's still a very difficult GE to call.
Irrespective of tonite's you Gov (unless repeated .. and with interest..) is, which is right, online or telephone polls.. FWIW put your trust in telephones, until they prove you wrong.. Too easy to be less than honest online, not so easy speaking to someone.. and I do believe people are untruthful to online polls.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Well if SNP do well and we get a Tory govt as a result, theyll be hammed next time much like the LDs are today.
From a SNP viewpoint it makes no difference and probably aids their propaganda. You seem to forget we have Scottish devolution. More Scottish policy will be decided in Scotland anyway. Pulling Miliband's string is just a stepping stone for them. So would a Tory government. Scotland is inviting England to put itself first. It might have to, to preserve the Union.
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Would you want Labour to try and get in government if they finish with less seats than the Tories? It would trigger a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines about coups.
Yes and having been virtually wiped out in Scotland - it would provoke an immediate constitutional crisis - surely labour mps would see the red lights flashing and let David Cameron form a short term minority government in their own longer term interest
A good point which hasn't really been aired before - and not a wholly unlikely scenario, particularly if the two major parties (and indeed the legislation so provided) were to agree up front on a half normal term Parliament of two and a half years with a GE in late Autumn 2017. This might suit Labour very nicely since it would be very difficult for the Tories to maintain their current level of support against the sort of austerity measures which assuredly lie ahead.
Given total wipeout likely for all the main parties in Scotland, I wonder how wedded to the union they will be.
Tories will fight to the end against independence but is it possible Labour (with nothing left to lose) will soften their stance.
Are you daft? Labour desperately need Scotland back onside. Without it they are 40 MPs in deficit, FOREVER.
That's not something they can just shrug off.
And recall how many of their recent Big Beasts were Scots, John Smith, Gordon Brown, Robin Cook, George Galloway (OK that's a joke) all gone, all inconceivable now.
The loss of Scotland is not just gonna make elections very difficult for Labour, it is gonna make the future difficult. What are they? Just an English party that allies with the SNP? If so they will have to readjust to more conservative English values.
Delicious.
Well if SNP do well and we get a Tory govt as a result, theyll be hammed next time much like the LDs are today.
I'm not so sure. You are forgetting how fervent the Nats are, particularly some of the converts from SLAB. And of course this assumes there isn't a 2nd referendum.
This election could really shift the map in the Tories favour. One of the biggest barriers to the Tories getting a majority in the past has been the highly "sticky" Lib Dems. If RCS is right these could be decimated. Apart from Chester, in most of the marginals Ashcroft has polled recently, where he has the Tories to lose, it is by no more than 6 points, which means up to a 3k Lab majority. In opposition with the right leader, the Tories ought to be able to take most of these back in 2020. Meanwhile Lab will likely find it very hard to shift the SNP in Scotland
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Would you want Labour to try and get in government if they finish with less seats than the Tories? It would trigger a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines about coups.
Yes and having been virtually wiped out in Scotland - it would provoke an immediate constitutional crisis - surely labour mps would see the red lights flashing and let David Cameron form a short term minority government in their own longer term interest
A good point which hasn't really been aired before - and not a wholly unlikely scenario, particularly if the two major parties (and indeed the legislation so provided) were to agree up front on a half normal term Parliament of two and a half years with a GE in late Autumn 2017. This might suit Labour very nicely since it would be very difficult for the Tories to maintain their current level of support against the sort of austerity measures which assuredly lie ahead.
Unlikely that the Tories are going to have the votes to pass any further austerity in the next parliament. That's the bright side of the likelihood of them staying in, that they won't actually have the power to do anything particularly horrible.
Reports on BBC South East that Maidstone is tight between Con (34%) and Lib Dem (30%). Not sure where they got those stats from, and it's a Con hold, fa shiz.
It was in the 2010 manifesto. The policy is a vote in government time. I doubt it would be whipped. Your logic about being a LD supporter but turning against them for joining a tory coalition but happy to see the tories carry on does not tie up. Try again.
'I haven't turned against them - the Coalition has been a good thing. Unfortunately it's been good for the Tories and not for the Lib Dems. Any future Tory Government would be very, very different'.
You weave a riddle too far for me. Coalition a good thing. So desert the libdems. (?)
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
Ed's problem is the lack of a power base that will fight for him. Labour will stand still or go slightly backwards next week and I'd expect some big beasts to appear very quickly to say Labour has no mandate to try to form a government. Implicit in that is that Ed has failed and should go. And to be fair, the biggest catastrophe in modern Labour history - the total loss of Scotland - has happened on his watch. Not even Michael Foot managed that.
Ed's had a good campaign so far, but he hasn't changed any minds and Labour is going to lose; horrendously so in Scotland. A new leader will be needed.
Not that I support any LIb Dem policy, but I do feel sorry for them. They did the right thing for the UK in 2010 and are now going to get mullered. There is no such thing as a grateful electorate.
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Less than you would be led to believe. And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs? Do the Gibraltarians?
It is nothing to do with the Spanish (albeit that Spain is a strong supporter of Nato). The local Gibraltarians already support a naval presence (and regularly ask for a stronger one) and Gibraltar is regularly visited by British and American nuclear subs. All the infrastructure is there
"You're standing in front of a placard that says: 'Ban exploitative zero hours contracts' at an event set up by people who are on zero hour contracts. Aren't you the hypocrite?"
Yup. And the SNP and the Scots themselves will get so much hate for this from Labour - the political tension will be unbearable.
I see Nicola's still gabbling on about how she's going to work with Labour in Westminster. Why doesn't she put a sock in it? Either she's too hubristic or stupid to see how she's destroying Labour's chances, or she's calculated she can get more out of the Tories.
Which brings us to the question of what Cameron's relationship with the Jock 50 will be. What can he bribe them with to make sure their voters don't switch back to Labour?
It is not the SNPs fault that Ed Miliband and Labour cannot win a plurality in England. That is purely Labour's problem. They could make the most of Nicola by entering a formal alliance with the SNP, gaining votes in England from those who want Nicola as PM. Their refusal says it all - Labour only care about party and never voters.
"You're standing in front of a placard that says: 'Ban exploitative zero hours contracts' at an event set up by people who are on zero hour contracts. Aren't you the hypocrite?"
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Less than you would be led to believe. And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs? Do the Gibraltarians?
It is nothing to do with the Spanish (albeit that Spain is a strong supporter of Nato). The local Gibraltarians already support a naval presence (and regularly ask for a stronger one) and Gibraltar is regularly visited by British and American nuclear subs. All the infrastructure is there
No it's not. Gibraltar is tiny and the only way to service it is via a 1,500 mile sea journey given the Spanish control the airspace and land access.
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
That, of course, is a matter entirely for Mr. Len McCluskey to decide.
"You're standing in front of a placard that says: 'Ban exploitative zero hours contracts' at an event set up by people who are on zero hour contracts. Aren't you the hypocrite?"
Wow - I hope there was more to that answer from Balls, as he in no way even acknowledged the main thrust of that question in that clip. As unsubtle an ignoring of a question as I've seen in a while.
By the by, is the use of the word 'exploitative' (which is also how it is in the manifesto) significant at all do people know? As in, is it meant to make people think all zero hours contracts would be banned, when in fact is would only be the 'exploitative' zero hours contracts?
If there is any veracity to the YouGov methodology then the tick tock is about to sound an alarm for Labour. But as you know 10 days is a long time in politics.
Not that I support any LIb Dem policy, but I do feel sorry for them. They did the right thing for the UK in 2010 and are now going to get mullered. There is no such thing as a grateful electorate.
I would have sympathy if they had not been so dupicituous and spent valuable time urinating on the leg of their coalition partner. But by reinforcing the label of "untrustworthy" they kept repeating the error time and time again.
Three things 1 Tories looks like they could now have the 'mo' - deffo amongst the phone pollsters and now [just] online 2 Royal Baby will wipe all other news so nothing to unwind the mo - it might actually strengthen the Union and thus undermine a Lab/SNP 3 Nate Silver points to incumbency advantage amongst the undecideds on polling day, where it is said one in twelve make up their mind in the booth
Labour seem to have launched a series of seemingly unrelated policy ideas but no narrative.
Tories have kept their strongest narrative point - the economy - until the end
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
Ed's problem is the lack of a power base that will fight for him. Labour will stand still or go slightly backwards next week and I'd expect some big beasts to appear very quickly to say Labour has no mandate to try to form a government. Implicit in that is that Ed has failed and should go. And to be fair, the biggest catastrophe in modern Labour history - the total loss of Scotland - has happened on his watch. Not even Michael Foot managed that.
Ed's had a good campaign so far, but he hasn't changed any minds and Labour is going to lose; horrendously so in Scotland. A new leader will be needed.
Problem is in the aftermath of an indecisive result and the possibility of another election, they would probably keep him in place. Labour leadership elections take months...
This election has been lost by Labour in Scotland not won by the SNP.
That might be a worthy argument if it wasn't for the polls.
The SNP keep, keep, keep going up. Over 50% now pretty normal. That's not a Labour collapse, that's an SNP victory and The Second Referendum coming real soon.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
Ed's problem is the lack of a power base that will fight for him. Labour will stand still or go slightly backwards next week and I'd expect some big beasts to appear very quickly to say Labour has no mandate to try to form a government. Implicit in that is that Ed has failed and should go. And to be fair, the biggest catastrophe in modern Labour history - the total loss of Scotland - has happened on his watch. Not even Michael Foot managed that.
Ed's had a good campaign so far, but he hasn't changed any minds and Labour is going to lose; horrendously so in Scotland. A new leader will be needed.
Oh, I completely agree that he SHOULD step down if he lose, but I'm getting a horrible feeling he might try and argue that the defeat wasn't caused by him and that he should get a chance to stay on. And due to the many inexplicable aspects of the Labour rulebook, it remains very difficult to oust a leader if they don't go voluntarily (there really should be a requirement for them to submit themselves to re-election as leader after a GE defeat).
Not that I support any LIb Dem policy, but I do feel sorry for them. They did the right thing for the UK in 2010 and are now going to get mullered. There is no such thing as a grateful electorate.
I would have sympathy if they had not been so dupicituous and spent valuable time urinating on the leg of their coalition partner. But by reinforcing the label of "untrustworthy" they kept repeating the error time and time again.
Think we can agree that the Tories have edged up today, mostly at UKIP's expense, but Miliband still heading for Downing Street unless one focuses on Ashcroft, which makes it a toss-up.
Would you want Labour to try and get in government if they finish with less seats than the Tories? It would trigger a whole spate of hysterical tabloid headlines about coups.
Yes and having been virtually wiped out in Scotland - it would provoke an immediate constitutional crisis - surely labour mps would see the red lights flashing and let David Cameron form a short term minority government in their own longer term interest
Labour could really be facing a big dilemma. I can imagine many English MPs in marginal constituencies will be nervous about being propped up by the SNP in a coalition of the losers. However, letting Cameron continue (by abstaining on a confidence motion) also has problems:
1) Scotland and Wales have elections in 2016. If Lab let the Cons carry on it backs up the SNP's "Red Tories" attack. No doubt Plaid may try something similar in Wales. I'm sure the Greens would also try to make hay in English local elections 2) What then happens to Ed Miliband? He needs to become PM to save his job. However, if Lab change leader and then pull the plug on the Tories and install the new leader the public might not like that 3) The Tories if they have any sense will use their minority government to bring forward populist bills and challenge the other parties to vote them down.First on the list an EU referendum bill.
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.
You linked to a £50k public subsidy and as I understand it an Advocate can expect to take home aruond £200k to £250k. So £50k is a big chunk of that money. Frankly even if this is an unusual year, it's still a huge chunk of the public purse.
And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.
You linked to a £50k public subsidy and as I understand it an Advocate can expect to take home aruond £200k to £250k. So £50k is a big chunk of that money. Frankly even if this is an unusual year, it's still a huge chunk of the public purse.
And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.
Isn't it a virtue to support something you believe in even though it may be to your pecuniary disadvantage?
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Less than you would be led to believe. And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs? Do the Gibraltarians?
It is nothing to do with the Spanish (albeit that Spain is a strong supporter of Nato). The local Gibraltarians already support a naval presence (and regularly ask for a stronger one) and Gibraltar is regularly visited by British and American nuclear subs. All the infrastructure is there
The infrastructure to service Vanguard boats, Trident missiles and warheads isn't there, and never will be.
If a Labour/SNP understanding in the Commons keeps 35% of the electorate onside, it's pretty much job done. I don't get this automatic assumption that "England" will rebel when around that percentage will probably end up voting Labour or Green. Throw in the 4% the SNP gets in Scotland and you start off with quite a fair bit of support. Then what happens if we don't get the worst crisis since the abdication and by and large things work out pretty normally: major legislation passed, the odd row, defence sorted with Tory votes etc?
It's unlikely, but not impossible. Catastrophe and revolt affecting the whole of England seems unlikely. The Tories and UKIP will be furious; the LDs less so.
As long as the SNP are sensible, and we have no reason to believe they will not be unless they get a bit overexcited, and don't start off by making all sorts of silly and unreasonable demands which are obviously designed to benefit Scotland and only Scotland at the expense of England - which should not be too hard to manage - then although there is a good indication a fair few people have concerns about such a pact, those concerns will be mollified for the first little while, and if they can manage that, then it just becomes another government from then on.
That's pretty much the way I see it, but with Labour 30-40 seats behind the Tories we'll never find out. This time next month they'll be looking for a new leader and we'll be starting two years of major constitutional fun under a minority Tory government supported by the LDs and the DUP.
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
Ed's problem is the lack of a power base that will fight for him. Labour will stand still or go slightly backwards next week and I'd expect some big beasts to appear very quickly to say Labour has no mandate to try to form a government. Implicit in that is that Ed has failed and should go. And to be fair, the biggest catastrophe in modern Labour history - the total loss of Scotland - has happened on his watch. Not even Michael Foot managed that.
Problem is in the aftermath of an indecisive result and the possibility of another election, they would probably keep him in place. Labour leadership elections take months...
The result won't be that indecisive. Labour will unambiguously lose! Standing still or going backwards can't be spun any other way.
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Spain would be apoplectic if we did that.
Simply not true; there are British and American nuclear subs in and out of Gibraltar all the time; Spain is part of NATO.
There are other issues with moving the subs, like where they load their missiles. It would be expensive but we could do it. The SNP hope the kick in the bollocks will numb us stone dead. But my guess is we would base them interim in the US. Moving to south wales just sets up another nationalist aunt sally. Barrow or Portsmouth. All our navy and ship building would be there anyway. Save our country and NATO by voting tory is the best option.
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.
You linked to a £50k public subsidy and as I understand it an Advocate can expect to take home aruond £200k to £250k. So £50k is a big chunk of that money. Frankly even if this is an unusual year, it's still a huge chunk of the public purse.
And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.
.. You mean someone should vote based on which party gives them the most dosh.. Are you insane?
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Less than you would be led to believe. And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs? Do the Gibraltarians?
Spanish heads would explode with rage. Therefore we would welcome the subs with open arms. Hell, we'd welcome cholera if it would piss off the chaperos over the border.
Have SLAB hit their floor in the mid20s? At least they don't need to worry about finishing below the Tories in Scotland I guess. Small mercies for them.
SLAB floor is about 18% going by the polling figures on certainty to vote and certainty to stay SLAB.
We are getting into Czechoslovakia territory btw.
18 months after a No vote the two countries went their own way without further referenda.
Quite often one sees a long term relationship which goes rocky, and then is patched up with a wedding and sighs of relief all round, and then divorce within the year.
A velvet divorce would suit both sides at the moment.
Time politicians got together and worked smooth transition let rose depart from the heather to the UK's dissolution.
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Spain would be apoplectic if we did that.
Simply not true; there are British and American nuclear subs in and out of Gibraltar all the time; Spain is part of NATO.
There are other issues with moving the subs, like where they load their missiles. It would be expensive but we could do it. The SNP hope the kick in the bollocks will numb us stone dead. But my guess is we would base them interim in the US. Moving to south wales just sets up another nationalist aunt sally. Barrow or Portsmouth. All our navy and ship building would be there anyway. Save our country and NATO by voting tory is the best option.
That's who they really belong to anyway. Perhaps they could even see their way to paying for them too.
"You're standing in front of a placard that says: 'Ban exploitative zero hours contracts' at an event set up by people who are on zero hour contracts. Aren't you the hypocrite?"
Wow - I hope there was more to that answer from Balls, as he in no way even acknowledged the main thrust of that question in that clip. As unsubtle an ignoring of a question as I've seen in a while.
By the by, is the use of the word 'exploitative' (which is also how it is in the manifesto) significant at all do people know? As in, is it meant to make people think all zero hours contracts would be banned, when in fact is would only be the 'exploitative' zero hours contracts?
The answer would be that zero hour contracts play an important part in a dynamic economy, in many circumstances they are both convenient for the employer and the employee. In some situations though they are highly exploitative, and it is here we want to legislate.
But that's a hard narrative when you have spent four years declaring all zero hour contracts as a cross between the work house and slavery.
Bloody hell, nearly had a connery. Checking in on phone, clicked on comments and up popped a thread saying shock Survation poll has reckless leading by 15pct in Rochester.
Have SLAB hit their floor in the mid20s? At least they don't need to worry about finishing below the Tories in Scotland I guess. Small mercies for them.
SLAB floor is about 18% going by the polling figures on certainty to vote and certainty to stay SLAB.
We are getting into Czechoslovakia territory btw.
18 months after a No vote the two countries went their own way without further referenda.
Quite often one sees a long term relationship which goes rocky, and then is patched up with a wedding and sighs of relief all round, and then divorce within the year.
A velvet divorce would suit both sides at the moment.
Time politicians got together and worked smooth transition let rose depart from the heather to the UK's dissolution.
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Less than you would be led to believe. And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs? Do the Gibraltarians?
It is nothing to do with the Spanish (albeit that Spain is a strong supporter of Nato). The local Gibraltarians already support a naval presence (and regularly ask for a stronger one) and Gibraltar is regularly visited by British and American nuclear subs. All the infrastructure is there
This. The Z berth is still maintained and used regularly and we had a US boat in only a few weeks ago. The Spanish continue to lobby the US to use Rota exclusively but the US have disregarded that pressure so far.
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.
You linked to a £50k public subsidy and as I understand it an Advocate can expect to take home aruond £200k to £250k. So £50k is a big chunk of that money. Frankly even if this is an unusual year, it's still a huge chunk of the public purse.
And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.
The inability to read numbers is certainly consistent with your support for the SNP and indeed most of your posts. In the year I linked to my total earnings from SLAB including outlays and VAT was £6500. I really don't know where you are getting this £50K from- it is a total fantasy.
Your figures about what advocates earn are also erroneous.
Will we look back in 11 days time on today's polls as the decisive shift finally? Quite a trip at the weekend - took in Tatton, Crewe & Nantwich, Congleton, Staffs Moorlands, Stone and Stafford. Labour posters thin on the ground in general, although I did take in the more Tory parts of the more marginal constituencies above. There still is a strange sense of apathy in the air that I detect though, but I read that as favouring the Tories.
In my parents Stone constituency, took the time to read through Bill Cash's election address. It contains no fewer than 106 bullet points, including a lot of initiatives he has been involved in including a lot of constituency work that goes unnoticed because of his EU work overshadowing everything else, and if you've had the time to get through that, a 6 or 7 paragraph election address as well in no more than an 8 type font. I feel sorry for anyone elderly trying to read that, they'd need the magnifying glass for sure! A real throwback to 1950's type electioneering I guess! UKIP election leaflet was a centrally produced leaflet, not mentioning Cash once. Although Cash's leaflet was very much vote Cash, without hardly mentioning the word Conservative except in parts of the bullet points.
I just love that Twitter has for some reason encouraged even billionaires to act like normal people in sharing unscreened and very normal thoughts about often very mundane things. Who knew what the billionaire powerbrokers of the past really thought about things? But now you have Rupert Murdoch trolling politicians and the Good Lord responding in, let's say, unfiltered fashion to such minor things, to give but two examples. It's great. Not that I've ever used twitter myself - I don't think such a restrictive character limit fits my style.
Unscreened thoughts about very mundane things don't seem, to me anyway, worth communicating.
Meanwhile Baltimore is suffering and may be about to explode.
The protests have turned violent, the street gangs are turning on the police, with 7 cops with broken bones and 1 'unresponsive'.
Stores are being looted and cars (mainly police) burned and destroyed. The police were clearly unprepared for the escalation of the unrest and have not thus far handled it well. Unless they get things under control by nightfall - just over an hour - it will be a long night.
To my knowledge the Baltimore PD have yet to release any formal statement regarding the details of how Freddie Gray died in police custody 9 days ago, with a 'nearly severed' spine and a crushed windpipe.
That is not a good sign for the police.
The mayor of Baltimore gave a news conference earlier, and she said that we will make space for those who wish to destroy. She must be regretting it by now.
The wife just suggested dinner in Baltimore this evening. As she follows the news, I think she was joking ...
I was wondering about this earlier. Do you think Miliband will go if Labour fail to get into government? I'm starting to wonder if he might try and argue that, due to his now semi-respectable personal ratings, he should be allowed to have another chance.
That, of course, is a matter entirely for Mr. Len McCluskey to decide.
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Less than you would be led to believe. And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs? Do the Gibraltarians?
I thought the whole point of the Scottish base was to bottle up the Russians from their Arctic bases. Gibraltar is not much use for that.
Yeah, but after Greece joins Russia in The Axis of Incoherent Rage, we'll need the subs in Gibraltar to keep them in the Med.
Who's we?
The Russians don't maintain much of a fleet, no real interest in full spectrum dominance, more live and let live. It's a sustainable policy, just look at respective debt levels.
Trident always comes across as a generational issue, can't say I have ever heard a friend or contempary show must interest in maintaining it. Anyway the SNP have rendered the argument irrelevant.
Meanwhile Baltimore is suffering and may be about to explode.
The protests have turned violent, the street gangs are turning on the police, with 7 cops with broken bones and 1 'unresponsive'.
Stores are being looted and cars (mainly police) burned and destroyed. The police were clearly unprepared for the escalation of the unrest and have not thus far handled it well. Unless they get things under control by nightfall - just over an hour - it will be a long night.
To my knowledge the Baltimore PD have yet to release any formal statement regarding the details of how Freddie Gray died in police custody 9 days ago, with a 'nearly severed' spine and a crushed windpipe.
That is not a good sign for the police.
The mayor of Baltimore gave a news conference earlier, and she said that we will make space for those who wish to destroy. She must be regretting it by now.
The wife just suggested dinner in Baltimore this evening. As she follows the news, I think she was joking ...
You guys would have fun - it would be a riot
Governor Larry Hogan has AT LAST declared a state of emergency and called in the National Guard - after over a week?
Meanwhile the crowds are building pre-sunset for trouble. It will be a long night in Baltimore
How many Scottish jobs will lost when Faslane is shut and the sub base moved to Gibraltar..which is a much more useful strategic base anyway
Spain would be apoplectic if we did that.
Simply not true; there are British and American nuclear subs in and out of Gibraltar all the time; Spain is part of NATO.
There are other issues with moving the subs, like where they load their missiles. It would be expensive but we could do it. The SNP hope the kick in the bollocks will numb us stone dead. But my guess is we would base them interim in the US. Moving to south wales just sets up another nationalist aunt sally. Barrow or Portsmouth. All our navy and ship building would be there anyway. Save our country and NATO by voting tory is the best option.
Don't want them in England, let the Americans pay for their own weapons.
Just like SLab, the party you *might* be voting for? Though SLab's voting intentions in Westminster seem to be approaching peak irrelevance.
don't let the rhetoric fool you, DavidL is desperate for a Labour-SNP government so the Legal Aid system is restored and his £50,000 of our taxes becomes £100,000.
Dair, I even gave you the link to the Legal Aid site. My LA income does not even reach 5 figures most years and it is by far the least profitable part of my practice. The idea of doing more LA fills me with horror. I turn it away regularly. You have said this a few times now. If it is supposed to be a joke it is not very funny.
You linked to a £50k public subsidy and as I understand it an Advocate can expect to take home aruond £200k to £250k. So £50k is a big chunk of that money. Frankly even if this is an unusual year, it's still a huge chunk of the public purse.
And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.
Isn't it a virtue to support something you believe in even though it may be to your pecuniary disadvantage?
Lawyers have that option - working for the Law Centre movement. They don't have to rely on the public purse (or earn bonuses from it), Law Centre lawyers get a pretty hard time of it and even more now.
Most lawyers just want to earn as much as they can from the public purse and DavidL is only an exception in his £50k a year is a lot less than many other Advocates filch from public funds.
Comments
Since then, we've had 3 out 4 polls today with the Tories, 2 of them comfortably and 2 Scotland polls showing SLAB getting pounded like a Dockside Hooker.
He truly deserves the name Rogerdarmus
Con Most seats 1.3/1.31.
Before 10.30pm was 1.33/1.34.
Sensible punters (unlike excitable political nerds) are probably wisely awaiting a further batch of preferably reliable polls, before deciding whether or not the tide has turned and if so to what likely extent.
It's still a very difficult GE to call.
"Everything you need to know about SEX, but are afraid to ask: Don't trust Labour!"
You seem to forget we have Scottish devolution. More Scottish policy will be decided in Scotland anyway. Pulling Miliband's string is just a stepping stone for them. So would a Tory government.
Scotland is inviting England to put itself first. It might have to, to preserve the Union.
In December 1923 they mandated MacDonald to go it alone in a minority government (as 2nd largest party).
This might suit Labour very nicely since it would be very difficult for the Tories to maintain their current level of support against the sort of austerity measures which assuredly lie ahead.
And do the Spanish just roll over and welcome these subs?
Do the Gibraltarians?
This election could really shift the map in the Tories favour. One of the biggest barriers to the Tories getting a majority in the past has been the highly "sticky" Lib Dems. If RCS is right these could be decimated. Apart from Chester, in most of the marginals Ashcroft has polled recently, where he has the Tories to lose, it is by no more than 6 points, which means up to a 3k Lab majority. In opposition with the right leader, the Tories ought to be able to take most of these back in 2020. Meanwhile Lab will likely find it very hard to shift the SNP in Scotland
Whoever wins won't have that much fun after. For example, navigating an EU referendum from a minority position will be a hoot.
Well whatever happens, at least we're not LIb Dems.
You weave a riddle too far for me. Coalition a good thing. So desert the libdems. (?)
Ed's had a good campaign so far, but he hasn't changed any minds and Labour is going to lose; horrendously so in Scotland. A new leader will be needed.
SPIN midprices currently Con 285, Lab 271. Implies 278 seats needed for most seats.
Now think about it - Con 1.29 to get 278 seats. How many does Cameron need to be PM? Probably 295, maybe one or two less, but let's say 295.
If Con is now very heavy odds on to get 278, is Con really significant odds against to get 295? That's quite a narrow range.
"You're standing in front of a placard that says: 'Ban exploitative zero hours contracts' at an event set up by people who are on zero hour contracts. Aren't you the hypocrite?"
http://tinyurl.com/ldyksrw
By the by, is the use of the word 'exploitative' (which is also how it is in the manifesto) significant at all do people know? As in, is it meant to make people think all zero hours contracts would be banned, when in fact is would only be the 'exploitative' zero hours contracts?
1 Tories looks like they could now have the 'mo' - deffo amongst the phone pollsters and now [just] online
2 Royal Baby will wipe all other news so nothing to unwind the mo - it might actually strengthen the Union and thus undermine a Lab/SNP
3 Nate Silver points to incumbency advantage amongst the undecideds on polling day, where it is said one in twelve make up their mind in the booth
Labour seem to have launched a series of seemingly unrelated policy ideas but no narrative.
Tories have kept their strongest narrative point - the economy - until the end
Difficult to see Labour getting back on track
The SNP keep, keep, keep going up. Over 50% now pretty normal. That's not a Labour collapse, that's an SNP victory and The Second Referendum coming real soon.
1) Scotland and Wales have elections in 2016. If Lab let the Cons carry on it backs up the SNP's "Red Tories" attack. No doubt Plaid may try something similar in Wales. I'm sure the Greens would also try to make hay in English local elections
2) What then happens to Ed Miliband? He needs to become PM to save his job. However, if Lab change leader and then pull the plug on the Tories and install the new leader the public might not like that
3) The Tories if they have any sense will use their minority government to bring forward populist bills and challenge the other parties to vote them down.First on the list an EU referendum bill.
And no, it's not a joke. It's a comment on the legal profession and their hypocrisy over supporting Tory over leftist government when they depend, fundamentally on leftist subsidies.
But my guess is we would base them interim in the US.
Moving to south wales just sets up another nationalist aunt sally.
Barrow or Portsmouth. All our navy and ship building would be there anyway.
Save our country and NATO by voting tory is the best option.
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015
Yougov (UK)
Which of the party leaders do you think is the most
capable leader?
Cameron 33%
Sturgeon 17%
Miliband 15%
Farage 7%
Clegg 4%
Therefore we would welcome the subs with open arms.
Hell, we'd welcome cholera if it would piss off the chaperos over the border.
GDP figures for first quarter due out at 9.30 forecast to be in O.4 to 0.6 range
Time politicians got together
and worked smooth transition
let rose depart from the heather
to the UK's dissolution.
But that's a hard narrative when you have spent four years declaring all zero hour contracts as a cross between the work house and slavery.
Archive button too close to comments !!!!
The Spanish continue to lobby the US to use Rota exclusively but the US have disregarded that pressure so far.
Earlier compouter said we blues could enjoy our polls for a few hours until YouGov came out.... oops!
Astute boats on the other hand, hunt Bear all the time, in the Med and elsewhere.
Your figures about what advocates earn are also erroneous.
'There's a bit of poetic justice in that so many Scottish Labour MPs campaigned against AV.'
With the wipe out of Labour in Scotland only a matter of time before they u-turn on EVEL .
In my parents Stone constituency, took the time to read through Bill Cash's election address. It contains no fewer than 106 bullet points, including a lot of initiatives he has been involved in including a lot of constituency work that goes unnoticed because of his EU work overshadowing everything else, and if you've had the time to get through that, a 6 or 7 paragraph election address as well in no more than an 8 type font. I feel sorry for anyone elderly trying to read that, they'd need the magnifying glass for sure! A real throwback to 1950's type electioneering I guess! UKIP election leaflet was a centrally produced leaflet, not mentioning Cash once. Although Cash's leaflet was very much vote Cash, without hardly mentioning the word Conservative except in parts of the bullet points.
The wife just suggested dinner in Baltimore this evening. As she follows the news, I think she was joking ...
The Russians don't maintain much of a fleet, no real interest in full spectrum dominance, more live and let live. It's a sustainable policy, just look at respective debt levels.
Trident always comes across as a generational issue, can't say I have ever heard a friend or contempary show must interest in maintaining it. Anyway the SNP have rendered the argument irrelevant.
Governor Larry Hogan has AT LAST declared a state of emergency and called in the National Guard - after over a week?
Meanwhile the crowds are building pre-sunset for trouble. It will be a long night in Baltimore
Most lawyers just want to earn as much as they can from the public purse and DavidL is only an exception in his £50k a year is a lot less than many other Advocates filch from public funds.