politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up a notch with Populus and not much change in Lon
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The legal drink drive limit in Scotland as from January this year is just over half that in England.Smarmeron said:One less Labour gain in Scotland.
Candidate suspended
Posted at 16:59
Labour has suspended one of its general election candidates in Scotland after he appeared in court accused of driving offences. Sumon Hoque, 32, was standing in Banff and Buchan. He appeared at Aberdeen Sheriff Court today, where he denied five breaches of the Road Traffic Act, including driving without a licence and being over the legal drink-driving limit. You can find a full list of candidates standing in the constituency here .
A Scottish Labour spokesman said:
Sumon Hoque has been suspended from representing the Labour Party and we have, therefore, withdrawn support from him as the general election candidate."
Surprisingly when as an English tourist I mentioned that to a young female shop assistant dressed in blue tartan in a whisky shop a couple of weeks ago in an isolated small town in Moray she visibly bristled and jumped to the defence of the new SNP government law saying it is needed to catch recidivist old men who never learn. It was then I realised Danny in the neighbouring seat was probably doomed. Young people up these seem to love the SNP.0 -
I had no bankroll left so was unable to take advantage of the arbs that were available.antifrank said:
Actually, the most chaotic time for the Scottish constituency polls was last weekend after the updated polling from Lord Ashcroft. By that stage far more bookies had entered the fray and they were being pushed all over the place.Alistair said:
Good times.Tissue_Price said:
I was merely helping the bookmaker to correct their prices by placing modest maximum bets which I felt sure they would notice.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not that anyone here would take advantage of such a thing, of course.Tissue_Price said:It wasn't the thread, just the graphs of the polling outcome in a dozen or so Scottish seats, which were nearly uniformly showing SNP wins, and also nearly uniformly odds-against with a couple of bookmakers, whose night shifts weren't the sharpest.
When Ashcroft released his second set of Scottish polls (which included Edinburgh SW) some bookmakers (Betfair Sportsbook) just took down the named seats and left all the other Scottish seats up. I extended my position in Edinburgh with haste.0 -
The lengths the unionists will go to to put forward a single anti-SNP candidate.Smarmeron said:One less Labour gain in Scotland.
Candidate suspended
Posted at 16:59
Labour has suspended one of its general election candidates in Scotland after he appeared in court accused of driving offences. Sumon Hoque, 32, was standing in Banff and Buchan. He appeared at Aberdeen Sheriff Court today, where he denied five breaches of the Road Traffic Act, including driving without a licence and being over the legal drink-driving limit. You can find a full list of candidates standing in the constituency here .
A Scottish Labour spokesman said:
Sumon Hoque has been suspended from representing the Labour Party and we have, therefore, withdrawn support from him as the general election candidate."0 -
...and it will be gratifying for a surprising number of people...Floater said:0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/24/election-2015-live-david-cameron-unveils-conservative-manifesto-for-englandScott_P said:It has emerged that Ed Miliband has been taking “leadership lessons” from a private consultancy called Extended Mind. The company offers to “build leadership skills” using business psychology and neuroscience. Miliband told Sky News he takes advice from a “range of people”, adding that he’d leave it to others to judge his performance.
The Conservatives have cited this news as an example of Miliband’s authenticity. The party’s Michael Ellis said: “There’s nothing authentic about Ed Miliband. He’s had to hire someone to tell him how to act like a leader. Even after all his extensive coaching, could you imagine him standing up to Putin on the world stage? He should ask for his money back.”
That's a rather silly attack line. If he thinks it is a weakness and he's working to correct it, good for him.
Just as long as the taxpayer isn't paying for it ...0 -
Sorry, Labour postal voters, you can't "have another go...."Smarmeron said:One less Labour gain in Scotland.
Candidate suspended
Posted at 16:59
Labour has suspended one of its general election candidates in Scotland after he appeared in court accused of driving offences. Sumon Hoque, 32, was standing in Banff and Buchan. He appeared at Aberdeen Sheriff Court today, where he denied five breaches of the Road Traffic Act, including driving without a licence and being over the legal drink-driving limit. You can find a full list of candidates standing in the constituency here .
A Scottish Labour spokesman said:
Sumon Hoque has been suspended from representing the Labour Party and we have, therefore, withdrawn support from him as the general election candidate."0 -
Neil Hay has put Nicola Sturgeon in an impossible situation. If she boots him out, she is left without an SNP candidate in a winnable seat. Yet this approach would not be without precedent. During the 2010 general election, the Conservative candidate for North Ayrshire and Arran referred to homosexuality as “not normal” and when the comments came to light, the Tories suspended him and withdrew support for his campaign. It sent a clear message that his remarks were not acceptable to the party.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/318256-commentary-stephen-daisley-on-snp-candidate-neil-hay-and-nationalism/
The same path is open to Sturgeon but it would mean sacrificing a seat to Labour. Some things, though, are above politics.
Perhaps she’ll get lucky and Hay will make the decision for her. But people look to the First Minister for leadership and, perhaps for the first time since she took office, she didn’t show it on Thursday.0 -
Janis Ian / SeventeenFenster said:@ Ooh, I like that. It's a bit like that trippy True Detective music.
I've always liked sad songs which is a bit weird given I'm a really happy person. Songs like Joni Mitchell's A Case of You, Aimee Mann's Wise Up and Damien Rice's The Blower's Daughter. They don't get the party going but they are good for the comedown
I fear - the way this GE is going - I'll be listening to them when Ed is measuring up the curtains to No 10.
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Musa Okwonga @Okwonga · Apr 22Slackbladder said:
Teenage girls....not known for their rationality...RobD said:
I fear for the youth of this country.....Sunil_Prasannan said:SHERLO(ttie)CKED CON @SherlockHolmxs · 30m30 minutes ago
MY FRIEND GOT AN ED MILIBAND CUT OUT IM CRYING #milifandom #milibae #VoteLabour
https://twitter.com/SherlockHolmxs/status/591624979420160000
Re: #milifandom, teenage girls have been braver than many commentators in noting that Ed Mililband has been unfairly attacked by Murdoch.
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Is that the IFS report that said Labour has been "considerably more vague about how much they would want to borrow”, and would leave Britain with £90billion more debt than the Tories? The same Think Tank who's figures Labour regularly dispute, and dismiss as nonsense.bigjohnowls said:
No did you not read the IFS report.TheWatcher said:
Is it something to do with a deficit in the NHS Pension Fund due to the bottlers who were frightened of Lansley, and took early retirement?bigjohnowls said:
Still not a £30bn black hole with that lot thoughTheWatcher said:
The Clunking Fist has gone rogue.bigjohnowls said:
If it had been official we'd have heard a lot more about it - the lack of reaction so far has surprised me. Gordonzilla running riot again, as you suggest, it seems.TheWatcher said:
-Free Bru and Tennants for the over 5's
-Subsidised curry
-State sponsored kilt shops
More to do with Tories making it up as they go along.
Like a certain Troll
Yes thats the one.
They say Tories cuts will be massive but are mainly unexplained as with £30bn black hole in funding promises from Magic Money Tree.
Perhaps you could hellp with two of the main elements.
What cuts will make up the £12bn welfare reduction?
Where is the additional £8bn NHS monies coming from?
Please copy the IFS into your response.
An NHS retirees pension being the main cause might impress them give it a try, they are reporting again next Tuesday
Stunning really having bitched and moaned for some 5 years about the so called "savage cuts" they now bitch and moan about the same party spending more?
Meanwhile they are so vague about their own plans a 3rd party steps in and infers Labour will itself have a black hole but 3 times larger than the party Labour are whining about?
Labour......redefining hypocriscy0 -
Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?0 -
Burned alive I believe.Floater said:
Are we talking about the convert who said Salmon Rushdie should die?antifrank said:The best father and son song was written by a man who has just been given a lifetime achievement award for folk music by the BBC. I'm sure we can all applaud this overdue recognition of a supremely talented artist.
Suprised the BBC havn't handed out an award to Gary Glitter.
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100 bajillion %Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%? 0 -
Ed Miliband has been asked on BBC Radio 1's Newsbeat about his record on raising the issue of Libya at Prime Minister's Questions. This follows his claims that David Cameron and other leaders had failedto plan properly for Libya's future after airstrikes.
So determined is Ed to learn the lessons of the past, he voted against the Chilcot Inquiry, four times
In a question and answer session in Radio 1's Live Lounge, the Labour leader was asked why he hadn't raised it with David Cameron in the Commons for four years.
I was setting out today my approach to foreign policy. One of the things I said was we've got to engage in the problems of the world but we've got to engage in them in a way that learns the lessons of the past."0 -
Presumably if Farage wins, and Reckless loses - there is no way that Farage can 'give' Reckless his MEP seat?MP_SE said:I think that if Reckless loses he will take Roger Bird's old job as general secretary. They have not filled the vacancy since he stepped down several months ago.
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Yes thats the one.Moses_ said:
Is that the IFS report that said Labour has been "considerably more vague about how much they would want to borrow”, and would leave Britain with £90billion more debt than the Tories? The same Think Tank who's figures Labour regularly dispute, and dismiss as nonsense.bigjohnowls said:
No did you not read the IFS report.TheWatcher said:
Is it something to do with a deficit in the NHS Pension Fund due to the bottlers who were frightened of Lansley, and took early retirement?bigjohnowls said:
Still not a £30bn black hole with that lot thoughTheWatcher said:
The Clunking Fist has gone rogue.bigjohnowls said:
If it had been official we'd have heard a lot more about it - the lack of reaction so far has surprised me. Gordonzilla running riot again, as you suggest, it seems.TheWatcher said:
-Free Bru and Tennants for the over 5's
-Subsidised curry
-State sponsored kilt shops
More to do with Tories making it up as they go along.
Like a certain Troll
They say Tories cuts will be massive but are mainly unexplained as with £30bn black hole in funding promises from Magic Money Tree.
Perhaps you could hellp with two of the main elements.
What cuts will make up the £12bn welfare reduction?
Where is the additional £8bn NHS monies coming from?
Please copy the IFS into your response.
An NHS retirees pension being the main cause might impress them give it a try, they are reporting again next Tuesday
Stunning really having bitched and moaned for some 5 years about the so called "savage cuts" they now bitch and moan about the same party spending more?
Meanwhile they are so vague about their own plans a 3rd party steps in and infers Labour will itself have a black hole but 3 times larger than the party Labour are whining about?
Labour......redefining hypocriscy
Not True the IFS singled out the Tories as the party that has £30 bn blackhole0 -
Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt0 -
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/5915859646083317760 -
Entirely depends what the other parties got and where it was distributed. (Trivially Lab 60%, UKIP 33% Con 5%, LD1%, Grn 1% would be a massive Lab landslide... / UKIP 33% Lab 20% Con 20% LD 15% Grn 12% would be a massive UKIP landslide )Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?0 -
Given that a common criticism of Cameron is he has an arrogant assumption about his own leadership skills, I'm surprised this is a line of attack CCHQ are pursuing - I guess it's a pursuit of the Ed is Weird angle, but which has more substance to it (or the appearance of it) as leadership skill is a relevant issue to some degree.Scott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt0 -
Even if suspended by the party; he remains a candidate - just not a SLAB one.MarqueeMark said:
Sorry, Labour postal voters, you can't "have another go...."Smarmeron said:One less Labour gain in Scotland.
Candidate suspended
Posted at 16:59
Labour has suspended one of its general election candidates in Scotland after he appeared in court accused of driving offences. Sumon Hoque, 32, was standing in Banff and Buchan. He appeared at Aberdeen Sheriff Court today, where he denied five breaches of the Road Traffic Act, including driving without a licence and being over the legal drink-driving limit. You can find a full list of candidates standing in the constituency here .
A Scottish Labour spokesman said:
Sumon Hoque has been suspended from representing the Labour Party and we have, therefore, withdrawn support from him as the general election candidate."
Time to get a snifter on the Tories there...0 -
Wonder how strong postal votes will be.Some anecdotal reports that particularly in key marginals the parties have gone flat out and there will be a large increase in postal votes. Could it be a third of votes?0
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You never know. Lutfur Rahman's at a loose end today.rogerh said:Wonder how strong postal votes will be.Some anecdotal reports that particularly in key marginals the parties have gone flat out and there will be a large increase in postal votes. Could it be a third of votes?
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http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/318256-commentary-stephen-daisley-on-snp-candidate-neil-hay-and-nationalism/Scott_P said:Neil Hay has put Nicola Sturgeon in an impossible situation. If she boots him out, she is left without an SNP candidate in a winnable seat. Yet this approach would not be without precedent. During the 2010 general election, the Conservative candidate for North Ayrshire and Arran referred to homosexuality as “not normal” and when the comments came to light, the Tories suspended him and withdrew support for his campaign. It sent a clear message that his remarks were not acceptable to the party.
The same path is open to Sturgeon but it would mean sacrificing a seat to Labour. Some things, though, are above politics.
Perhaps she’ll get lucky and Hay will make the decision for her. But people look to the First Minister for leadership and, perhaps for the first time since she took office, she didn’t show it on Thursday.
The article says quite a bit more than that - but has at least one comment already on Twitter:
Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland
· 16 mins 16 minutes ago
I fundamentally disagree with this basic view, but it's a balanced and reasoned expression of it: http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/318256-commentary-stephen-daisley-on-snp-candidate-neil-hay-and-nationalism/ …
ings Over Scotland @WingsScotland
· 16 mins 16 minutes ago
And that automatically makes it, by about a billion miles, the best mainstream media coverage of the issue.
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Unsurprisingly a Labour member likes Miliband. He would have serious problems if he can't get his own members to support him.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/5915859646083317760 -
In Torbay, it was about 1 in 7 of all electors. I suspect that translates into nearer 1 in 5 of all votes that will be cast.rogerh said:Wonder how strong postal votes will be.Some anecdotal reports that particularly in key marginals the parties have gone flat out and there will be a large increase in postal votes. Could it be a third of votes?
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Bernie McGreavey @bertieb6614 4m4 minutes ago
"@BBCPolitics: The kiss that shows #milifandom is not just for teenage girls? http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive "@Marjthechicken
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDXFxkgW8AEs1dd.jpg0 -
#milifandom is the black swan of the campaign. Who expected Ed to be the new Harry Styles - or the target of hen parties!?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/591585964608331776
He is even more popular with the ladies than Boris...0 -
YouGov finds that voters think that too much of the election campaign is about Scotland.
No, they think it's too much about Scottish independence/further devolution.
No one asked them about the role of Scottish MPs in a hung parliament......0 -
"Milifandom"?
Everybody over 23 just threw up a little bit in their mouth.....0 -
Sure. If the big 2 were to drop down to 24-26 & LD's on 6, the kippers could form the largest party on 31% according to baxter.Lennon said:
Entirely depends what the other parties got and where it was distributed. (Trivially Lab 60%, UKIP 33% Con 5%, LD1%, Grn 1% would be a massive Lab landslide... / UKIP 33% Lab 20% Con 20% LD 15% Grn 12% would be a massive UKIP landslide )Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?
It's incredibly unlikely, but not inconceivable, that Nigel could be PM in a couple of weeks.0 -
You can never have to much #SexySocialism0
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Someone should tell her - there's a MUCH cooler dude standing right behind her....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/5915859646083317760 -
Janis Ian - Tea and SympathyBond_James_Bond said:
Janis Ian / SeventeenFenster said:@ Ooh, I like that. It's a bit like that trippy True Detective music.
I've always liked sad songs which is a bit weird given I'm a really happy person. Songs like Joni Mitchell's A Case of You, Aimee Mann's Wise Up and Damien Rice's The Blower's Daughter. They don't get the party going but they are good for the comedown
I fear - the way this GE is going - I'll be listening to them when Ed is measuring up the curtains to No 10.
or Watercolours
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It's not uncommon for young girls to fixate on the pulchritudinally challenged, look at the Beatles. It's probably a mothering instinct thing.foxinsoxuk said:
#milifandom is the black swan of the campaign. Who expected Ed to be the new Harry Styles - or the target of hen parties!?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/591585964608331776
He is even more popular with the ladies than Boris...
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And we've seen on telly how that plays out.....Pong said:
Sure. If the big 2 were to drop down to 24-26 & LD's on 6, the kippers could form the largest party on 31% according to baxter.Lennon said:
Entirely depends what the other parties got and where it was distributed. (Trivially Lab 60%, UKIP 33% Con 5%, LD1%, Grn 1% would be a massive Lab landslide... / UKIP 33% Lab 20% Con 20% LD 15% Grn 12% would be a massive UKIP landslide )Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?
It's incredibly unlikely, but not inconceivable, that Nigel could be PM in a couple of weeks.0 -
It is quite a genuine phenomenon, bizzarely!MarqueeMark said:"Milifandom"?
Everybody over 23 just threw up a little bit in their mouth.....
Indeed I suspect that Sunils switch from purple to red shows some milifandom too.0 -
True. Although even then Nigel would be leader of the largest party, but in all likelihood without a absolute majority of MP's - would the Tories really provide C&S to UKIP, or would you see a 'not so Grand Coalition'? or UKIP Minority Government whilst the other 2 parties tried to work out what the hell had gone wrong?Pong said:
Sure. If the big 2 were to drop down to 24-26 & LD's on 6, the kippers could form the largest party on 31% according to baxter.Lennon said:
Entirely depends what the other parties got and where it was distributed. (Trivially Lab 60%, UKIP 33% Con 5%, LD1%, Grn 1% would be a massive Lab landslide... / UKIP 33% Lab 20% Con 20% LD 15% Grn 12% would be a massive UKIP landslide )Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?
It's incredibly unlikely, but not inconceivable, that Nigel could be PM in a couple of weeks.0 -
Maybe she's blind, desperate, and hasn't had it in months.MarqueeMark said:
Someone should tell her - there's a MUCH cooler dude standing right behind her....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/591585964608331776
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Farage could give Reckless his seat if UKIP agree to put him next on the list for the south east. Would no doubt annoy a number of Kippers and look quite undemocratic.Lennon said:
Presumably if Farage wins, and Reckless loses - there is no way that Farage can 'give' Reckless his MEP seat?MP_SE said:I think that if Reckless loses he will take Roger Bird's old job as general secretary. They have not filled the vacancy since he stepped down several months ago.
That is one of the reasons why Roger Helmer ended up with UKIP as he wanted to retire and Baroness Warsi tried to replace the candidate who came 3rd with a female a-lister from London. He defected rather than face a stitch up. Another one of Baroness Warsi's many many failures.
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Mr. F, are you suggesting she's a plate-swallowing bird?0
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Are you suggesting she is the ideal PB date?Sean_F said:
Maybe she's blind, desperate, and hasn't had it in months.MarqueeMark said:
Someone should tell her - there's a MUCH cooler dude standing right behind her....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/591585964608331776
:-)0 -
Luckyguy1983 said:
It's not uncommon for young girls to fixate on the pulchritudinally challenged, look at the Beatles. It's probably a mothering instinct thing.foxinsoxuk said:
#milifandom is the black swan of the campaign. Who expected Ed to be the new Harry Styles - or the target of hen parties!?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/591585964608331776
He is even more popular with the ladies than Boris...
Or harbours thoughts of training him up from scratch - '50 Shades of Red'Sean_F said:
Maybe she's blind, desperate, and hasn't had it in months.MarqueeMark said:
Someone should tell her - there's a MUCH cooler dude standing right behind her....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/5915859646083317760 -
Oi - Sunil......Sean_F said:
Maybe she's blind, desperate, and hasn't had it in months.MarqueeMark said:
Someone should tell her - there's a MUCH cooler dude standing right behind her....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/5915859646083317760 -
The brass neck of Nick Clegg would take some beating. I know he's got form but to say "I think using the tragedy in Libya to score party political points during an election campaign is pretty disreputable!!"
It's no exaggeration to say that if it wasn't for the Lib Dems doing exactly that over Iraq during two elections he wouldn't now be Deputy PM0 -
There would also be Tory and Labour howls of outrage about the 'unfair' FPTP voting system. Quite amusing.Lennon said:
True. Although even then Nigel would be leader of the largest party, but in all likelihood without a absolute majority of MP's - would the Tories really provide C&S to UKIP, or would you see a 'not so Grand Coalition'? or UKIP Minority Government whilst the other 2 parties tried to work out what the hell had gone wrong?Pong said:
Sure. If the big 2 were to drop down to 24-26 & LD's on 6, the kippers could form the largest party on 31% according to baxter.Lennon said:
Entirely depends what the other parties got and where it was distributed. (Trivially Lab 60%, UKIP 33% Con 5%, LD1%, Grn 1% would be a massive Lab landslide... / UKIP 33% Lab 20% Con 20% LD 15% Grn 12% would be a massive UKIP landslide )Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?
It's incredibly unlikely, but not inconceivable, that Nigel could be PM in a couple of weeks.0 -
I don't think anyone would hear that howling over the sound of markets crashing.....rural_voter said:
There would also be Tory and Labour howls of outrage about the 'unfair' FPTP voting system. Quite amusing.Lennon said:
True. Although even then Nigel would be leader of the largest party, but in all likelihood without a absolute majority of MP's - would the Tories really provide C&S to UKIP, or would you see a 'not so Grand Coalition'? or UKIP Minority Government whilst the other 2 parties tried to work out what the hell had gone wrong?Pong said:
Sure. If the big 2 were to drop down to 24-26 & LD's on 6, the kippers could form the largest party on 31% according to baxter.Lennon said:
Entirely depends what the other parties got and where it was distributed. (Trivially Lab 60%, UKIP 33% Con 5%, LD1%, Grn 1% would be a massive Lab landslide... / UKIP 33% Lab 20% Con 20% LD 15% Grn 12% would be a massive UKIP landslide )Pong said:Serious question,
What % of the E&W vote would ukip need to win most seats?
33%?
It's incredibly unlikely, but not inconceivable, that Nigel could be PM in a couple of weeks.0 -
And so we say farewell to another Fantabadoozy Campaign day for Labour..one wonders how long they can keep this amazing record going..is anyone actually managing it.0
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The LDs were anti-intervention from the start. Miliband just turned against the Libyan intervention today having supported it at the time.Roger said:The brass neck of Nick Clegg would take some beating. I know he's got form but to say "I think using the tragedy in Libya to score party political points during an election campaign is pretty disreputable!!"
It's no exaggeration to say that if it wasn't for the Lib Dems doing exactly that over Iraq during two elections he wouldn't now be Deputy PM
Clegg is in the clear on this one, it is Ed who is the opportunist.0 -
chuckle - never thought I'd read a comment like that from the likes of you Sir.Sean_F said:
Maybe she's blind, desperate, and hasn't had it in months.MarqueeMark said:
Someone should tell her - there's a MUCH cooler dude standing right behind her....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Alicia Jumman @aliciajumman · 4h4 hours agoScott_P said:Ed's had Tim from Ruislip on the phone...
@CCHQPress: Caller tells @Ed_Miliband she can't imagine him as Prime Minister on @LBC - time to ask his "leadership consultancy" for refund #NotUpToIt
Dreams do come true, I just got to meet @Ed_Miliband the reason I joined @UKLabour #milifandom
https://twitter.com/aliciajumman/status/591585964608331776 0 -
English voters need to eat their cereal.CarlottaVance said:YouGov finds that voters think that too much of the election campaign is about Scotland.
No, they think it's too much about Scottish independence/further devolution.
No one asked them about the role of Scottish MPs in a hung parliament......0 -
I think you need to learn to distinguish between a conviction politician and an opportunistRoger said:The brass neck of Nick Clegg would take some beating. I know he's got form but to say "I think using the tragedy in Libya to score party political points during an election campaign is pretty disreputable!!"
It's no exaggeration to say that if it wasn't for the Lib Dems doing exactly that over Iraq during two elections he wouldn't now be Deputy PM0 -
It's not worth a separate full post, but here's the up-to-date best prices on the Scottish seats, organised by the price on the SNP:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1djJFOEhGS3FIOGc/view?usp=sharing
Points to note:
1) The SNP are favourites in 54 seats.
2) They are at 5/6 or less in 50 seats.
3) They are at 1/2 or better in 46 seats.
4) They are no longer than 2/1 in 57 seats.
So the question is whether you think the seat markets are now broadly right. If you do, the SNP should be backed with SkyBet or William Hill at 6/4 to get more than 50 seats. The 5/6 with Sporting Bet that the SNP will exceed 47.5 seats also looks like a good bet if you take this view.
If you take the opposite view, there are some odds against bets to be placed in individual constituencies on Labour.
I think there's scope for both. The Sporting Bet bet looks decent to me, but one or two of the prices on Labour may have gone out a bit too far.
There is an arb available on the Conservatives in Scotland. You can back them to take at least one seat in Scotland with William Hill at 2/5 and back them to get no seats with Ladbrokes at 3/1 for a guaranteed profit. I suspect that the value is mainly with the latter bet.0 -
Tories out in force here in Wimbledon - two knocks on the door this week. I politely told them them to get lost of course! The ground war is pretty intense by both Labour and the Tories. Surely Wimbledon can't be in play?0
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‘The Egton Wing at Broadcasting House was renamed the John Peel Wing in March 2012,’ says a Corporation spokesman. ‘We intend to put up clear signage on the building which includes John’s name and will keep his family fully updated.’MP_SE said:
Burned alive I believe.Floater said:
Are we talking about the convert who said Salmon Rushdie should die?antifrank said:The best father and son song was written by a man who has just been given a lifetime achievement award for folk music by the BBC. I'm sure we can all applaud this overdue recognition of a supremely talented artist.
Suprised the BBC havn't handed out an award to Gary Glitter.
Is this still the case?0 -
Ross Kemp has been wheeled out today for his every 4-5 years duty for Labour. He campaigned in South Thanet.0
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You believe that many voters feel there isn't enough discussion of the role of Scottish MPs in a hung Parliament?CarlottaVance said:YouGov finds that voters think that too much of the election campaign is about Scotland.
No, they think it's too much about Scottish independence/further devolution.
No one asked them about the role of Scottish MPs in a hung parliament......
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You're too honest.murali_s said:Tories out in force here in Wimbledon - two knocks on the door this week. I politely told them them to get lost of course! The ground war is pretty intense by both Labour and the Tories. Surely Wimbledon can't be in play?
You should have told them you were an undecided voter and wasted their time for a while.
0 -
There really has been a surprising lack of celebs so far. The hyprocrite hobbit at the start. Eddie Izzard is a given. And that is about it really.AndreaParma_82 said:Ross Kemp has been wheeled out today for his every 4-5 years duty for Labour. He campaigned in South Thanet.
Not that it is a bad thing. I don't think just because you are an actor or whatever you have anymore of a valid view than Bob from Bognor, and normally Bob is better informed of the real world.0 -
A bloke from Bollywood came to Leicester to parade with Keith Vaz.
And after watching the video (link to an Indian online newspaper) about the visit, I am now getting pop ups with breaking news from India every 10 minutes on my desktop...FrancisUrquhart said:
There really has been a surprising lack of celebs so far. The hyprocrite hobbit at the start. Eddie Izzard is a given. And that is about it really.AndreaParma_82 said:Ross Kemp has been wheeled out today for his every 4-5 years duty for Labour. He campaigned in South Thanet.
Not that it is a bad thing. I don't think just because you are an actor or whatever you have anymore of a valid view than Bob from Bognor, and normally Bob is better informed of the real world.0 -
It's also worth noting that with the SNP being priced at 1/2 or shorter in 46 seats, the Sporting Index price, even at 45-47, could well be a good buy.
Not that I'm doing it, because I bought at a much lower figure.0 -
Financier from this morning:
" The Tower Hamlets judgement shows three things:
Firstly the depth of corruption in our political, police and prosecution systems. Corruption not by bribery but of looking the other way when it is politically convenient to so do.
Secondly, in allowing the immigration - often unchecked for political purposes (votes) - of people from countries where political, legal and police corruption is the normal way of life rather than the exception.
Thirdly the failure to enforce the same law (and not to allow any other laws) for all people regardless of rank, nation or creed.
It all these had been enforced by our politicians and police - without fear or favour - then the chances of Rotherham, Rochdale and Oxford etc occurring would have been minimised. Unfortunately, by their silence on these subjects during this pre-election period, I do not see any of our leaders looking at these important matters and correcting such inaction. "
Exactly.
Whenever the corruption and criminality is exposed it is always by outsiders whether that is in Parliament or the BBC or local government or the hospitals or the plods or the City.
And for every exposure we can be sure that there are many more which remain hidden.
The regulatory systems in this country have totally failed.
There is no shortage of government organisations which need proper outside investigation - we could start with the South Yorkshire police, the Thames Valley police, the Greater Manchester police, the Metropolitan police ...
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"Not that it is a bad thing. I don't think just because you are an actor or whatever you have anymore of a valid view than Bob from Bognor, and normally Bob is better informed of the real world."
Do you think businesses would pay fortunes for celebrity endorsement if they could achieve the same with Bob from Bognor? Do you think George Clooney needs to understand Nespresso in order to sell it? You don't seem to have grasped the reason for using celebrities.0 -
The two are not even remotely comparable as I am sure even you must know.Roger said:The brass neck of Nick Clegg would take some beating. I know he's got form but to say "I think using the tragedy in Libya to score party political points during an election campaign is pretty disreputable!!"
It's no exaggeration to say that if it wasn't for the Lib Dems doing exactly that over Iraq during two elections he wouldn't now be Deputy PM
The LDs consistently opposed the Iraq war.
Miliband supported the action in Libya, hasn't mentioned it at all since, it is not in Labour's manifesto, yet today he uses drowning refugees (mainly not even from Libya) to make cheap political points, without in any way saying what he would have done differently.
The man is appalling0 -
Further notes:
1) Labour are favourites in just two seats in Scotland: Rutherglen & Hamilton West (5/6) and Glasgow North East (4/6).
2) They are not as short as 1/2 in any seats at all.
3) They are 2/1 or shorter in just ten seats, the other eight being Edinburgh South, East Renfrewshire, Dunfermline & West Fife, East Lothian, Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill, Glenrothes, Paisley & Renfrewshire North and Ayrshire Central.0 -
It is truly only UKIP and a few independent voices, that are drawing attention to the corruption and bribery, and have been for months. Sadly, falling on deaf ears and not opening blind eyes.another_richard said:Financier from this morning:
" The Tower Hamlets judgement shows three things:
Firstly the depth of corruption in our political, police and prosecution systems. Corruption not by bribery but of looking the other way when it is politically convenient to so do.
Secondly, in allowing the immigration - often unchecked for political purposes (votes) - of people from countries where political, legal and police corruption is the normal way of life rather than the exception.
Thirdly the failure to enforce the same law (and not to allow any other laws) for all people regardless of rank, nation or creed.
It all these had been enforced by our politicians and police - without fear or favour - then the chances of Rotherham, Rochdale and Oxford etc occurring would have been minimised. Unfortunately, by their silence on these subjects during this pre-election period, I do not see any of our leaders looking at these important matters and correcting such inaction. "
Exactly.
Whenever the corruption and criminality is exposed it is always by outsiders whether that is in Parliament or the BBC or local government or the hospitals or the plods or the City.
And for every exposure we can be sure that there are many more which remain hidden.
The regulatory systems in this country have totally failed.
There is no shortage of government organisations which need proper outside investigation - we could start with the South Yorkshire police, the Thames Valley police, the Greater Manchester police, the Metropolitan police ...
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Roger my old mucker...You seem to have a reading comphresion issue. Still waiting for that apology.Roger said:"Not that it is a bad thing. I don't think just because you are an actor or whatever you have anymore of a valid view than Bob from Bognor, and normally Bob is better informed of the real world."
Do you think businesses would pay fortunes for celebrity endorsement if they could achieve the same with Bob from Bognor? Do you think George Clooney needs to understand Nespresso in order to sell it? You don't seem to have grasped the reason for using celebrities.
I was saying it isn't a bad thing that my tv screen isn't rammed with a Eddie Izzard or Gary Barlow telling me I should vote Labour or Tory etc. It is quite a relief that I am not being bombared by them.
Just because people it works that people buy products because celebs endorse them, doesn't mean what they are selling is better. Classic example is Beat by Dr Dre. Yes is works, the headphone still suck though. I am not a sheep who buys items like that, and hence, why I rock a far superior set of cans (as the kids would say).0 -
The Kipper standing against Vaz is possibly the most easy on the eye of local candidates (excepting the small yet perfectly formed Liz Kendall!).AndreaParma_82 said:A bloke from Bollywood came to Leicester to parade with Keith Vaz.
And after watching the video (link to an Indian online newspaper) about the visit, I am now getting pop ups with breaking news from India every 10 minutes on my desktop...FrancisUrquhart said:
There really has been a surprising lack of celebs so far. The hyprocrite hobbit at the start. Eddie Izzard is a given. And that is about it really.AndreaParma_82 said:Ross Kemp has been wheeled out today for his every 4-5 years duty for Labour. He campaigned in South Thanet.
Not that it is a bad thing. I don't think just because you are an actor or whatever you have anymore of a valid view than Bob from Bognor, and normally Bob is better informed of the real world.
http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/UKIP-Greens-Lib-Dems-join-race-Leicester-East-s/story-26242538-detail/story.html
Moat Community College is in Highfields and was described as a good school in Jan 14 by OFSTED with "almost all students are from minority ethnic backgrounds". Must be some interesting conversations in the staff room!
But on the other hand a British Asian Colleague of mine said that having reviewed all the manifestos she was going to vote UKIP (In Chesterfield).
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I would add most of Jann Arden's debut album'Time for Mercy to that list.Plato said:REM Everybody Hurts is lovely, but impersonal.
I'd go for Sail Away by David Gray https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMF7Uq-mHZAvid Grayisam said:
Nirvana unpluggedFenster said:@ Ooh, I like that. It's a bit like that trippy True Detective music.
I've always liked sad songs which is a bit weird given I'm a really happy person. Songs like Joni Mitchell's A Case of You, Aimee Mann's Wise Up and Damien Rice's The Blower's Daughter. They don't get the party going but they are good for the comedown
I fear - the way this GE is going - I'll be listening to them when Ed is measuring up the curtains to No 10.
Beck Sea Change
REM night swimming country feedback etc
KD Lang Constant craving
Great sad songs!0 -
Greens are being received very well in Canterbury, but have confirmed Labour and LD strong candidates are likely to result in them both doing traditionally much better. The UKIP effect is very, very strong in the county - will do very well in the local elections.
I'm unsure about South Thanet; from all the data I can find, there is probably a point or two separating UKIP and CON. If Farage does win, I don't think it will be a significant margin. But UKIP are quietly confident.0 -
People are saying there will be a strong 'keep out Farage' vote in Thanet South... This should really have shown itself when he was named as candidate in the survation pollDaniel said:Greens are being received very well in Canterbury, but have confirmed Labour and LD strong candidates are likely to result in them both doing traditionally much better. The UKIP effect is very, very strong in the county - will do very well in the local elections.
I'm unsure about South Thanet; from all the data I can find, there is probably a point or two separating UKIP and CON. If Farage does win, I don't think it will be a significant margin. But UKIP are quietly confident.0 -
Welcome aboard the good ship PB, Daniel.Daniel said:Greens are being received very well in Canterbury, but have confirmed Labour and LD strong candidates are likely to result in them both doing traditionally much better. The UKIP effect is very, very strong in the county - will do very well in the local elections.
I'm unsure about South Thanet; from all the data I can find, there is probably a point or two separating UKIP and CON. If Farage does win, I don't think it will be a significant margin. But UKIP are quietly confident.
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Thanks for all your work on Scotland AF.antifrank said:Further notes:
1) Labour are favourites in just two seats in Scotland: Rutherglen & Hamilton West (5/6) and Glasgow North East (4/6).
2) They are not as short as 1/2 in any seats at all.
3) They are 2/1 or shorter in just ten seats, the other eight being Edinburgh South, East Renfrewshire, Dunfermline & West Fife, East Lothian, Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill, Glenrothes, Paisley & Renfrewshire North and Ayrshire Central.
Its been very helpful and I expect it to be very profitable as well.
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Undoubted sterling work on the Scottish seats, but do you ever consider the bookmaker you are recommending the bets with? I don't know anybody who can get more than £1 on w sporting bet, I genuinely just ignore their pricesantifrank said:Further notes:
1) Labour are favourites in just two seats in Scotland: Rutherglen & Hamilton West (5/6) and Glasgow North East (4/6).
2) They are not as short as 1/2 in any seats at all.
3) They are 2/1 or shorter in just ten seats, the other eight being Edinburgh South, East Renfrewshire, Dunfermline & West Fife, East Lothian, Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill, Glenrothes, Paisley & Renfrewshire North and Ayrshire Central.0 -
Bookies lament
Samuel Knowles (@theboyknowles)
24/04/2015 16:15
When @spreadexsports call you 0.5-1.5 on a long term non arb 25 index they're showing 0-0.5 on & you dare question it pic.twitter.com/D8UGhMgmsX0 -
Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.isam said:
People are saying there will be a strong 'keep out Farage' vote in Thanet South... This should really have shown itself when he was named as candidate in the survation poll
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I'm becoming increasingly worried by the comres polling. There is every chance they could be proven correct and we will have to wait and see but they are easy to criticize currently:
Dodgy looking South Thanet Poll not in line with Survation or Bown
Dodgy looking SW poll not in line with the Lord (new levels of dodgyness!?)
Dodgy looking four point CON leads when yougov and populus have consistent LAB+1 or 2
I think there is a few more, there was a london one a while back.
All speculation though, the polling world is going to be divided and labelled come the 8th0 -
Then this week as he launched Labour campaign billboards in Nuneaton, he spoke from behind a lectern, even though he was in the middle of a cricket pitch.
The constant use of the lectern is thought to be part of a strategy to make Mr Miliband look more like a man who could be prime minister.
Last month it was reported that he had hired US speech coach Michael Sheehan on a £10,000 daily fee to improve his delivery and charisma.
Mr Sheehan’s website includes a video where he advises politicians on how to speak at a lectern, including not holding onto the sides in what he calls a ‘death grip’.
It comes as it was revealed that Mr Miliband has hired a 'leadership consultancy' firm which coaches people to look 'authentic' and cope with anxiety, it has emerged.
The Labour leader, who has seen his party's lead in the polls slip with less than two weeks until the general election, has engaged the services of 'ExtendedMind' – a specialist firm offering 'performance coaching'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3053956/Miliband-hires-leadership-consultancy-firm-specialises-making-people-look-authentic.html0 -
Miliband supported the action in Libya, hasn't mentioned it at all since, it is not in Labour's manifesto, yet today he uses drowning refugees (mainly not even from Libya) to make cheap political points, without in any way saying what he would have done differently.
The man is appalling
Really? Really? Ed has to make a foreign policy speech in the campaign to demonstrate his PM credentials. The biggest issue at the minute is the destabilisation of Europe through Libya which we helped contribute to.
I live with this on a daily basis here in Firenze. We have an increasing supply of migrants flooding into the city. I tell them to try and get to the UK where at least they might have some hope for work (London) and can mingle. I hope Italy funnels as many up north as quick as possible.
The only good thing that Berlusconi did was reach a pact with Gaddafi to stabalise the coastal areas from the traffikers. If only we could turn the clock black we would not have touched Benghazi with a barge pole- we probably would have provided military support to Mummar as we are presently providing for Hassad.0 -
Well, you would think if this carries on some polling companies are going to have some serious egg on face in a couple of weeks.DennisBets said:I'm becoming increasingly worried by the comres polling. There is every chance they could be proven correct and we will have to wait and see but they are easy to criticize currently:
Dodgy looking South Thanet Poll not in line with Survation or Bown
Dodgy looking SW poll not in line with the Lord (new levels of dodgyness!?)
Dodgy looking four point CON leads when yougov and populus have consistent LAB+1 or 2
I think there is a few more, there was a london one a while back.
All speculation though, the polling world is going to be divided and labelled come the 8th
I do seem to remember that 2010, polls were saying slightly different things. I seemed to remember people banging on particuarly about YouGov being out of whack with 2-3 week to ago...until the final poll or two before the GE, when all the established pollsters bacame much more aligned.0 -
I actually didn't see this before I posted about celeb endorsements..
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/celebrities-sign-statement-support-caroline-lucas-not-green-party0 -
I've barely bet with them before. I got £50 on.isam said:
Undoubted sterling work on the Scottish seats, but do you ever consider the bookmaker you are recommending the bets with? I don't know anybody who can get more than £1 on w sporting bet, I genuinely just ignore their pricesantifrank said:Further notes:
1) Labour are favourites in just two seats in Scotland: Rutherglen & Hamilton West (5/6) and Glasgow North East (4/6).
2) They are not as short as 1/2 in any seats at all.
3) They are 2/1 or shorter in just ten seats, the other eight being Edinburgh South, East Renfrewshire, Dunfermline & West Fife, East Lothian, Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill, Glenrothes, Paisley & Renfrewshire North and Ayrshire Central.
I'm heavily restricted or unwelcome with various others.0 -
If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO
0 -
Ross Kemp.. that man of the people very in touch with the WWC.. Obviously everyone has a swimming pool in the basement of their large South London homes... Bit like Roger really..completely out of touch.0
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Cringeing at you calling it Firenze.tyson said:
Really? Really? Ed has to make a foreign policy speech in the campaign to demonstrate his PM credentials. The biggest issue at the minute is the destabilisation of Europe through Libya which we helped contribute to.
I live with this on a daily basis here in Firenze. We have an increasing supply of migrants flooding into the city. I tell them to try and get to the UK where at least they might have some hope for work (London) and can mingle. I hope Italy funnels as many up north as quick as possible.
The only good thing that Berlusconi did was reach a pact with Gaddafi to stabalise the coastal areas from the traffikers. If only we could turn the clock black we would not have touched Benghazi with a barge pole- we probably would have provided military support to Mummar as we are presently providing for Hassad.
And please learn to use the quotes system.0 -
Labour have been pushing it being a three way tie for a while now. I would imagine they have left it too late to make any noticeable difference. If they really wanted to keep Farage out they should not have stood at all. Quite amusing as he is pretty much standing on an anti-UKIP ticket and could potentially let Farage in.Daniel said:
Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.isam said:
People are saying there will be a strong 'keep out Farage' vote in Thanet South... This should really have shown itself when he was named as candidate in the survation poll
I will be very interested in Matthew Goodwin's upcoming book as it will hopefully provide a valuable insight in to how not to run a campaign. Having hordes of metropolitan liberals forcing their progressive policies down people's throats and being disruptive doesn't tend to go down too well.0 -
That's very amusing. Says it all about the Green Party and these celebs.FrancisUrquhart said:I actually didn't see this before I posted about celeb endorsements..
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/celebrities-sign-statement-support-caroline-lucas-not-green-party0 -
The Pollsters Regional Swing Averages
The South – all Con to Lab
11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
8.5: Survation (last six)
7.1: ICM (last six)
6.7: Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
6.6 Yougov (last 10)
6.1 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
4.6 Comres (last 6)
Midlands
6.2 Yougov (incl Wales)
4.5 Survation
4.5 ICM
3.8 Populus
3.1 Ashcroft
2.9 Ipsos Mori (incl Wales)
2.0 Comres
Wales Only
3.8 Survation (Wales only)
0.9 ICM (Wales Only)
- 4.0 Opinium (Wales Only)
Wales/SW
6.8 Ashcroft
5.7 Populus
North
4.2 ICM
3.6 Yougov
2.8 Ipsos Mori
2.7 Populus
2.4 Comres
2.1 Survation
0.5 Ashcroft0 -
Family party in Castle Point last weekend. "Sadly we've got to vote for the Tories to stop UKIP".Daniel said:
Under 30s, yes. I know several traditional Labour voters, who are switching to Tories just to stop Farage. Do they have the numbers? I doubt it. Labour are running a strong campaign and now loosening up to help the Tories.isam said:
People are saying there will be a strong 'keep out Farage' vote in Thanet South... This should really have shown itself when he was named as candidate in the survation poll0 -
Didn't she sing that on the very first Saturday Night Live?Bond_James_Bond said:
Janis Ian / SeventeenFenster said:@ Ooh, I like that. It's a bit like that trippy True Detective music.
I've always liked sad songs which is a bit weird given I'm a really happy person. Songs like Joni Mitchell's A Case of You, Aimee Mann's Wise Up and Damien Rice's The Blower's Daughter. They don't get the party going but they are good for the comedown
I fear - the way this GE is going - I'll be listening to them when Ed is measuring up the curtains to No 10.0 -
Yes 2010 was all over the place with the LD %, other than a few rogues I think it ping ponged between CON +2 and CON+12FrancisUrquhart said:
Well, you would think if this carries on some polling companies are going to have some serious egg on face in a couple of weeks.DennisBets said:I'm becoming increasingly worried by the comres polling. There is every chance they could be proven correct and we will have to wait and see but they are easy to criticize currently:
Dodgy looking South Thanet Poll not in line with Survation or Bown
Dodgy looking SW poll not in line with the Lord (new levels of dodgyness!?)
Dodgy looking four point CON leads when yougov and populus have consistent LAB+1 or 2
I think there is a few more, there was a london one a while back.
All speculation though, the polling world is going to be divided and labelled come the 8th
I do seem to remember that 2010, polls were saying slightly different things. I seemed to remember people banging on particuarly about YouGov being out of whack with 2-3 week to ago...until the final poll or two before the GE, when all the established pollsters bacame much more aligned.
This current oscillation between CON majority and LAB majority is unforgivable really. Big funded major companies are going to go by the wayside for this, It must come down to the methodology change from Yougov and populus, both showing labour leads.
This is either natural selection through clever adaptation or an almighty nail in their own coffins!0 -
There was a r eport the other day that suggested that ISIS strategy was planned in US-run internement camps by former officers of Saddam's armyDennisBets said:If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO
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particularly, can spell just can't type0
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First name on that list, David Attenborough. A patron of Population Matters, who have wrote a number of articles outlining the impact of immigration to the UK. Not quite in line with the Green's opinion.FrancisUrquhart said:I actually didn't see this before I posted about celeb endorsements..
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/celebrities-sign-statement-support-caroline-lucas-not-green-party
Lily Cole trousers 200k of taxpayers cash to blow on a completely pointless website which was always going to be a failure:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/25/how_did_millionaire_supermodel_lily_cole_get_200000_of_taxpayers_cash/
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There was an hour BBC program on the origins of ISIS. Quite interesting and learned a few things I didn't know beforehand. Although, stopped short of really explaining what it is that drives ISIS and what is their fundamentist goal.OldKingCole said:
There was a r eport the other day that suggested that ISIS strategy was planned in US-run internement camps by former officers of Saddam's armyDennisBets said:If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO
0 -
That's really interesting as I was having a pub politics debate yesterday and we concluded that the reason Saddam and Gaddafi were so hardcore was because it was people like ISIS they had to keep in tow.OldKingCole said:
There was a r eport the other day that suggested that ISIS strategy was planned in US-run internement camps by former officers of Saddam's armyDennisBets said:If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO
The suggestion it is an offshoot of loyalist bathists throws the argument wide open! I mean where do you go with this one? Bomb them? Hug them? Send Nigel Farage there?0 -
Ah yes; must have a look at iPlayer. Much obliged.FrancisUrquhart said:
There was an hour BBC program on the origins of ISIS. Quite interesting and learned a few things I didn't know beforehand. Although, stopped short of really explaining what it is that drives ISIS and what is their fundamentist goal.OldKingCole said:
There was a r eport the other day that suggested that ISIS strategy was planned in US-run internement camps by former officers of Saddam's armyDennisBets said:If EM had not blocked the vote against military action in Syria we would be bombing Assad for cruelty to ISIS rebels. Saved Dave from himself there IMO
0
