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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up a notch with Populus and not much change in Lon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead up a notch with Populus and not much change in London
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's Populus poll
CON 33.79%
LAB 34.94%
LD 8.72%
UKIP 13.83%
CON to LAB swing since 2010 of 5.6%
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http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-12point-lead-as-battle-for-london-hots-up-10201129.html
"Party leaders in London are preparing for a second general election — because this one looks like ending in a shambles.
That, I am told, is why a stream of VIP Tories have trooped to Twickenham, including Boris Johnson, George Osborne, and Patrick McLoughlin.
The Conservatives won’t defeat crafty old Vince Cable on May 7 — but they are betting on two things: One, that he will dance into retirement if he does not get the Lib-Dem leadership.
Second, that any minority government will fall apart in a year."
We're now wrapping up our postal vote GOTV operation - about 80% of those reached have now voted. AS skipped a hustings event (Notts TV) for the third time running today, citing "constituency business".
But Clegg has a bizarre interpretation of our uncoded constitution. He has said the second largest party cannot form a government because it wouldn't legitimate (even though the Crown is perfectly entitled to call for the leader of the second largest party, if the first cannot command a majority)
Yet, Tories and Labour are preparing for a second election in October.
Coward
Be interesting to see what the BBC does with Top Gear.
On the other hand, if he looks like a man vindictive by nature but too weak to back up his malice, that's the worst of both worlds. Depends how the media play it and the people see it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/313768/bis-14-p77-trade-union-membership-statistical-bulletin-2013.pdf
It doesn't sound as if the 'fiery old bird' has given up just yet.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3051451/Boris-cried-Dave-s-woad-recovery-QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-Johnson-join-Cameron-campaign.html
Though Son of my Father by Chicory Tip was equally appalling it has given rise to thousands of good terrace chants over the years!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974
However, this only amounted to a temporary delay: the new boundaries, equalising the constituency sizes and reducing the number of MPs to 600, a move that takes a lot of the current bias towards Labour out of the system, will automatically come into effect in 2018 unless some new piece of legislation gets passed to come up with either an alternate boundary review or stick with the current set of boundaries for yet another election in 2020.
http://nicktyrone.com/did-labour-just-forget-about-this-glaring-problem-for-them-when-they-wrote-their-manifesto/
I think he said *drone*. However nice Mr Palmer is - that's lobby fodder as a reputation in my book.
2. Stevie Wonder
“Just for the sake of argument, if a larger party, with more votes and more seats, can’t or choses not to create a stable government, then we need a government in this country. At the end of the day, one way or another, a government needs to be formed. All I’m saying is that that first step is an essential one because anything that follows it won’t be seen as legitimate unless that first step is properly pursued.”
BBC4 does a great line in ancient pop videos
Mind you electoral register increase in Scotland could be good for them...
Nobody can get an outright majority, so the campaign has more or less moved on to maximising the core vote.
It might also be worth doing this in an all-party way rather than a partisan put-it-in-the-manifesto-then-ram-the-bastard-thing-through way, since the parties seem to bollocks up their attempts to do it in a partisan way so badly anyhow. These proposals look pretty good for Labour, especially equalising by population not voter registration, which I think was in the manifesto, but a bit vaguely.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmpolcon/600/60009.htm
Same thing with Rod Stewart, his work with the Faces and his first four albums are all brilliant, check out Mandolin Wind or Gasoline Alley, both great songs.
Ronnie Lane of the Faces was another, he wrote and sang Debris about his Dad, probably the best father/son song ever, save maybe Springsteen's Independence Day.
We're 14 days away from Miliband becoming PM, and the inevitability of it makes it no less terrifying a prospect.
EDIT - I never knew Errol Browne got an OBE!
http://www.capx.co/why-europe-needs-to-look-to-australia-to-solve-the-migrant-crisis/
"Tweeting your outrage is a much easier way of doing this than, say, working in a refugee camp. The writer James Bartholomew has recently come up with an apt label for the phenomenon: “virtue signalling”. That phrase neatly encapsulates our generation’s elevation of the moralistic (holding the correct opinions) over the moral (doing the right thing). I hope it becomes a Twitter staple, a standard riposte to those who think they prove their compassion by hating the right people."
http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/election-chaos-in-uk-could-trigger-lehman-moment-for-pound/
"A YouGov poll suggests both parties will have less than 290 seats and so concessions will have to be made with smaller parties to entice them into a coalition.
The same poll sees the Lib Dems gaining 53 seats which places them in the strongest position. Nick Clegg has indicated that he would enter into coalition with either major party and act as a buffer to protect against the excesses of either side.
In terms of seats the Scottish National Party are polling at 6 but at this point neither the Tories nor Labour appear willing to enter coalition with them with Cameron suggesting that the SNP would blackmail Labour if it formed a minority government with the SNP."
"...probably the best father/son song ever, save maybe Springsteen's Independence Day."
I always thought "Independence Day" was about a divorce/breakup ?
wn from time to time trading on their one hit wonder status.
Incidentally here in Maidstone & The Weald the Lib Dem candidate Jasper Gerrard is putting up a good showing with the LDs putting a lot of resources into the seat. According to a poll he is just a few
a few points behind. It is though essentially a Tory constituency with some of the outlying villages some of the bluest in the country and the fear that the LDs may change sides after the election might just see the Tories and the much criticised Helen Grant home.
Now you mention it the song he wrote when he was breaking up with his first wife, One Step Up, is probably one of the best he has ever written.
Just checked, you are right, just goes to show you that I need to listen more carefully.
I suspect that if Labour form the government they will quite quickly pass legislation giving the boundary commission a fresh mandate for a review of boundaries on terms that Labour believe are fair, thus finally burying the 600-seat boundaries, but whether that new set of boundaries will survive to see an election is less certain.
We are going to see some very unedifying wrangling over boundaries in the years ahead, which is something of a missed opportunity when they could be debating PR variants instead.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/19/election-2015-live-sturgeon-will-not-rule-out-second-independence-referendum#block-5533b5d3e4b045f87ec9706b
And so the poll is, therefore, in some senses, both subjective and arbitrary.
"Con + Kipper + DUP : a rainbow progressive alliance".
What about 'The St Georges Revolutionary Front'