politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegrounds in England and Wales (Sortable table)
politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress
with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).
Comments
-
I have pointed out before (more than once), but some people still seem not to have got the message: the Conservative majority in Croydon Central in 2010 was 5.96% and the swing required is therefore 2.98%, not 2.90%.0
-
The Press Association got it right on election night at 4:44 am:JohnLoony said:I have pointed out before (more than once), but some people still seem not to have got the message: the Conservative majority in Croydon Central in 2010 was 5.96% and the swing required is therefore 2.98%, not 2.90%.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Constituencies/live_results.html0 -
We stand corrected ! This could be the turning point of the election.JohnLoony said:I have pointed out before (more than once), but some people still seem not to have got the message: the Conservative majority in Croydon Central in 2010 was 5.96% and the swing required is therefore 2.98%, not 2.90%.
0 -
O/T:
A fresh-faced Nicola Sturgeon as 1997 SNP candidate for Glasgow Govan:
http://s27.postimg.org/ffy2au78j/Nicola_Sturgeon1997.png
http://web.archive.org/web/20000816224830/http://www.bbc.co.uk/election97/framedir/candframe.htm0 -
Morning all.
And to the fair folk of Englandshire, happy St George’s Day.0 -
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
50 hours 50 minutes 50 seconds0 -
O/T:
Grant Shapps as the 1997 Tory candidate for Southwark North & Bermondsey:
http://s16.postimg.org/n911ad0h1/Grant_Shapps_Southwark_North.png0 -
Are you sure? .... It looks like Michael Green to me.AndyJS said:O/T:
Grant Shapps as the 1997 Tory candidate for Southwark North & Bermondsey:
http://s16.postimg.org/n911ad0h1/Grant_Shapps_Southwark_North.png
0 -
This is the real election issue which the manic right wing press seem to want to avoid. With Tories saying vote Labour in Scotland and Labour saying vote Tory it really is another world.0
-
Awesome pix - http://tinyurl.com/Volcano-Calbuco-Chile
0 -
Ed to enter Number 10 in 365 hours time. If the polls don't change.0
-
FPT - "I totally agree that New Labour was the worst government this country ever had.
But Ed Miliband has killed it, it's Old Labour now, the only thing left from New Labour is Umunna."
Cyclefree: "Worse than that. Ed Milliband has preserved the worst bits of New Labour: its authoritarianism, its dismal embrace of identity politics and its contempt for civil liberties and free speech."
Well said, I absolutely detest the Labour party. They are a clear and present danger to this country, under Miliband more so than ever.
Labour hold this country, its freedoms and our national interest in contempt. In fact, many of them even reject the concept of nations themselves, particularly England by which they are embarrassed. They feel we are children to be ordered around and controlled, to be shaped as required to fit their vision of society. They are nothing like the old Christian Socialist patriots they used to be. The leadership and its leading MPs and advisors are full of controlling and unpleasant people masquerading under such headings as 'fairness' and 'equality'. They are professionals at ruining the economy, but get re-elected time and time again to do it all over.
I would not vote Labour in a million years.0 -
It's very decent of Prime Minister Cameron to console Ed Miliband on his defeat and invite the LotO into Number 10 for a cup of tea and bacon sandwich ....AndyJS said:Ed to enter Number 10 in 365 hours time. If the polls don't change.
Hhhmmm .... Perhaps not the bacon sandwich .... Don't want Ed dribbling on the carpets.
0 -
Does anyone have a link to the likely times that each constituency will declare?
Trying to decide if I need the next day off work or if I can grab enough sleep without missing anything interesting.0 -
Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm0 -
Polling Stations Open In 14 Days Precisely0
-
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
0 -
I think the electoral commission recommends (but doesn't require) the counts to starts ASAP after polls have closed.anotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm0 -
Should we put you down as undecided then? #dodgycanvassingreturnsCasino_Royale said:FPT - "I totally agree that New Labour was the worst government this country ever had.
But Ed Miliband has killed it, it's Old Labour now, the only thing left from New Labour is Umunna."
Cyclefree: "Worse than that. Ed Milliband has preserved the worst bits of New Labour: its authoritarianism, its dismal embrace of identity politics and its contempt for civil liberties and free speech."
Well said, I absolutely detest the Labour party. They are a clear and present danger to this country, under Miliband more so than ever.
Labour hold this country, its freedoms and our national interest in contempt. In fact, many of them even reject the concept of nations themselves, particularly England by which they are embarrassed. They feel we are children to be ordered around and controlled, to be shaped as required to fit their vision of society. They are nothing like the old Christian Socialist patriots they used to be. The leadership and its leading MPs and advisors are full of controlling and unpleasant people masquerading under such headings as 'fairness' and 'equality'. They are professionals at ruining the economy, but get re-elected time and time again to do it all over.
I would not vote Labour in a million years.0 -
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm0 -
Just checked Wikipedia on that election. Apparently, he won!AndyJS said:O/T:
Grant Shapps as the 1997 Tory candidate for Southwark North & Bermondsey:
http://s16.postimg.org/n911ad0h1/Grant_Shapps_Southwark_North.png0 -
Lol. Perhaps ;-)DavidL said:
Should we put you down as undecided then? #dodgycanvassingreturnsCasino_Royale said:FPT - "I totally agree that New Labour was the worst government this country ever had.
But Ed Miliband has killed it, it's Old Labour now, the only thing left from New Labour is Umunna."
Cyclefree: "Worse than that. Ed Milliband has preserved the worst bits of New Labour: its authoritarianism, its dismal embrace of identity politics and its contempt for civil liberties and free speech."
Well said, I absolutely detest the Labour party. They are a clear and present danger to this country, under Miliband more so than ever.
Labour hold this country, its freedoms and our national interest in contempt. In fact, many of them even reject the concept of nations themselves, particularly England by which they are embarrassed. They feel we are children to be ordered around and controlled, to be shaped as required to fit their vision of society. They are nothing like the old Christian Socialist patriots they used to be. The leadership and its leading MPs and advisors are full of controlling and unpleasant people masquerading under such headings as 'fairness' and 'equality'. They are professionals at ruining the economy, but get re-elected time and time again to do it all over.
I would not vote Labour in a million years.0 -
It's harder to interfere with the ballot boxes if they are emptied as soon as possible.RobD said:
I think the electoral commission recommends (but doesn't require) the counts to starts ASAP after polls have closed.anotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm0 -
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
0 -
Yep, I think they should all be counting ASAP. I think those that aren't are required to explain to the Electoral Commission why they aren'tOblitusSumMe said:
It's harder to interfere with the ballot boxes if they are emptied as soon as possible.RobD said:
I think the electoral commission recommends (but doesn't require) the counts to starts ASAP after polls have closed.anotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm0 -
Many of us are all counting on (praying for?) your ARSE.JackW said:
It's very decent of Prime Minister Cameron to console Ed Miliband on his defeat and invite the LotO into Number 10 for a cup of tea and bacon sandwich ....AndyJS said:Ed to enter Number 10 in 365 hours time. If the polls don't change.
Hhhmmm .... Perhaps not the bacon sandwich .... Don't want Ed dribbling on the carpets.0 -
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
0 -
There will be some classics.RobD said:
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Tories are down 2% higher than swing in Sunderland, LAB MAJ NAILED ON0 -
It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.0 -
Admit it, you're temptedFreggles said:
There will be some classics.RobD said:
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Tories are down 2% higher than swing in Sunderland, LAB MAJ NAILED ON 0 -
Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...
0 -
ITV have a bio/interview of Mr Farage this evening.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3051019/Too-information-Farage-bares-TV-interview-skinny-dipping-youth-plans-lead-Ukip-2030.html0 -
The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?0 -
Yes, but I fear being absolutely cream crackered from the Friday to the Sunday and even then still not REALLY know what the result is.RobD said:
Admit it, you're temptedFreggles said:
There will be some classics.RobD said:
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Tories are down 2% higher than swing in Sunderland, LAB MAJ NAILED ON
But yes, the politics addiction is calling me0 -
I don't get how this is accepted. You are basically selling your vote for something of value to you (in this case, someone else's vote).Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?0 -
Hmm. I wouldn't want to miss Mr Clegg throwing a hissy fit at the Hallam count.RobD said:
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Sleep at 9pm?0 -
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.0 -
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.0 -
My clerk has quite unbelievably fixed a 2 day proof for me on 7th and 8th May. She supports the SNP and I am frankly suspicious but there will be very little GOTV or TV watching for me as things stand. Efforts to settle this case are a high priority.
(In fairness she points out I could have blocked those days out of the diary and didn't)0 -
Here's the Press Association's list:Freggles said:Does anyone have a link to the likely times that each constituency will declare?
Trying to decide if I need the next day off work or if I can grab enough sleep without missing anything interesting.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
Just 7 seats to declare the next day, but bizarrely they're all in England. Every seat in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is counting overnight.
St Ives counted overnight in 1987 and 1992 so they've got no excuse, but the real disappointment is that Warwick & Leamington and Kenilworth & Southam are counting the next day once again.0 -
I may plan go for a tactical nap at 1030 to 0230; but I know that temptation will be too strong. It will be sofa, a few refreshments and laptop for me.anotherDave said:
Hmm. I wouldn't want to miss Mr Clegg throwing a hissy fit at the Hallam count.RobD said:
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Sleep at 9pm?0 -
Was it good of Gordon Brown to accuse David Cameron of stirring up English nationalism so he could grab a headline on St George's Day.
Must be from The Daily Mash.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-cameron-is-whipping-up-english-nationalism-says-gordon-brown-10196872.html0 -
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.0 -
Definitely don't want to miss that one. My tactic is to go to sleep straight after the exit poll and get up for 1pm, which is generally when it starts to get interesting. And yes, take the following day off work to catch up on sleep and look forward to a long weekend analysing the results in detail.anotherDave said:
Hmm. I wouldn't want to miss Mr Clegg throwing a hissy fit at the Hallam count.RobD said:
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!anotherDave said:
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!Freggles said:
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come inanotherDave said:
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!Freggles said:Found a list from last year which will suffice!
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Sleep at 9pm?0 -
You and millions of other PBers ....Casino_Royale said:
Many of us are all counting on (praying for?) your ARSE.JackW said:
It's very decent of Prime Minister Cameron to console Ed Miliband on his defeat and invite the LotO into Number 10 for a cup of tea and bacon sandwich ....AndyJS said:Ed to enter Number 10 in 365 hours time. If the polls don't change.
Hhhmmm .... Perhaps not the bacon sandwich .... Don't want Ed dribbling on the carpets.
I'm advised that some ardent admirers of my ARSE even have rooms set aside as a shrine to my deified organ. Likewise for OGH too .... the cult of the Bedford Baldy is a growing phenomenon unlike his hair ....
0 -
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.0 -
Owls' wife booked a holiday in Devon for him.DavidL said:My clerk has quite unbelievably fixed a 2 day proof for me on 7th and 8th May. She supports the SNP and I am frankly suspicious but there will be very little GOTV or TV watching for me as things stand. Efforts to settle this case are a high priority.
(In fairness she points out I could have blocked those days out of the diary and didn't)
Clegg agent I reckon :P0 -
Sent a deputy? Thats not so bad.Dair said:
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
0 -
Taken a day's leave on 7th may for Lab GOTV in this London marginal.I am told the day starts at 5 Am.0
-
There was an Owen Smith representing Labour.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
http://www.labour.org.uk/people/detail/owen-smith
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2015-04-22/parties-fight-for-westminster-seats-in-wales-election-debate/
0 -
Voteswap website - claims to be apolitical but encourages Greens and Labour to swap votes to keep Tories out.
http://voteswap.org/about/website
What happens if I want to keep Labour or Greens out? Why can't I join?
0 -
No offence, but I hope you oversleep.SMukesh said:Taken a day's leave on 7th may for Lab GOTV in this London marginal.I am told the day starts at 5 Am.
0 -
I am happy to beat these Lefties at their own game too. I live in a very safe Tory seat.dr_spyn said:Voteswap website - claims to be apolitical but encourages Greens and Labour to swap votes to keep Tories out.
http://voteswap.org/about/website
What happens if I want to keep Labour or Greens out? Why can't I join?0 -
He spoke well in that clip, but the others did too.anotherDave said:
There was an Owen Smith representing Labour.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
http://www.labour.org.uk/people/detail/owen-smith
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2015-04-22/parties-fight-for-westminster-seats-in-wales-election-debate/
Hard to forecast Wales. I would have thought PC gains just from Leanne Woods prominence and generally good performances. Is there polling evidence of Leannegasm?
0 -
Where are Labour voters going to go Green to "Keep the Tories out" ?dr_spyn said:Voteswap website - claims to be apolitical but encourages Greens and Labour to swap votes to keep Tories out.
http://voteswap.org/about/website
What happens if I want to keep Labour or Greens out? Why can't I join?
Tories don't have a prayer in Brighton.
Norwich South ? Fighting each other tbh - CON no chance
Bristol West ? Well it's against the Lib Dems - but who knows if Labour or Green is more likely there... a tactical vote could well be wrong there.
Anywhere else ? Sheffield Central errm ye...
There is not one single seat a Labour voter can vote Green tactically.0 -
I think Ed will be PM but I don't think it will be quite as bad for the Tories as that. 40 direct gains is about the top end of what Labour can realistically hope for on the day, IMHO.DavidL said:It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.0 -
Make sure you're up if you're in Finchley or Ilford North or Enfield SouthgateSMukesh said:Taken a day's leave on 7th may for Lab GOTV in this London marginal.I am told the day starts at 5 Am.
Not so much in Battersea or Enfield North
Enfield North was a betting error before anyone else, thought 3-1 Labour seemed "pretty good" 0 -
The idea is that Green supporters in marginals will vote Labour and in return Labour supporters in safe seats will vote Green.Pulpstar said:
Where are Labour voters going to go Green to "Keep the Tories out" ?dr_spyn said:Voteswap website - claims to be apolitical but encourages Greens and Labour to swap votes to keep Tories out.
http://voteswap.org/about/website
What happens if I want to keep Labour or Greens out? Why can't I join?
Tories don't have a prayer in Brighton.
Norwich South ? Fighting each other tbh - CON no chance
Bristol West ? Well it's against the Lib Dems - but who knows if Labour or Green is more likely there... a tactical vote could well be wrong there.
Anywhere else ? Sheffield Central errm ye...
There is not one single seat a Labour voter can vote Green tactically.
I'm not making this up.0 -
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.0 -
They advocate voting Green in Brighton...antifrank said:
The idea is that Green supporters in marginals will vote Labour and in return Labour supporters in safe seats will vote Green.Pulpstar said:
Where are Labour voters going to go Green to "Keep the Tories out" ?dr_spyn said:Voteswap website - claims to be apolitical but encourages Greens and Labour to swap votes to keep Tories out.
http://voteswap.org/about/website
What happens if I want to keep Labour or Greens out? Why can't I join?
Tories don't have a prayer in Brighton.
Norwich South ? Fighting each other tbh - CON no chance
Bristol West ? Well it's against the Lib Dems - but who knows if Labour or Green is more likely there... a tactical vote could well be wrong there.
Anywhere else ? Sheffield Central errm ye...
There is not one single seat a Labour voter can vote Green tactically.
I'm not making this up.0 -
Yeovil
Labour supporters should vote Green here to help stop a Tory government
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooool0 -
Vote swap negates the need for constituencies - you may as well have party lists of candidates.0
-
Talking about helping out the local party during elections, I remember putting up the boards on the lamp posts the evening before, and having to take them down the day after the count.
They now appear to be becoming a semi permanent fixture.0 -
As I said, I'm not making it up.Pulpstar said:Yeovil
Labour supporters should vote Green here to help stop a Tory government
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooool0 -
Plaid's numbers seem to have recovered from a dip, but not moved above their normal range.foxinsoxuk said:
He spoke well in that clip, but the others did too.anotherDave said:
There was an Owen Smith representing Labour.foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
http://www.labour.org.uk/people/detail/owen-smith
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2015-04-22/parties-fight-for-westminster-seats-in-wales-election-debate/
Hard to forecast Wales. I would have thought PC gains just from Leanne Woods prominence and generally good performances. Is there polling evidence of Leannegasm?
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales
0 -
I'm in Islington South & Finsbury which will be a safe Labour seat. Can I induce anyone in Edinburgh South to vote swap with me? It could be of great assistance to my future prosperity.0
-
Poster watch. The Didsbury end of Withington (the 'Hamstead' part of the constituency) has only Labour stickers. Withington (the more student side) even more so.
It's goodbye Mr Leech. Put your Bentley's on it.0 -
Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???0
-
You could try asking on Wings or Scotpop, but they'll all be voting SNP anyway !antifrank said:I'm in Islington South & Finsbury which will be a safe Labour seat. Can I induce anyone in Edinburgh South to vote swap with me? It could be of great assistance to my future prosperity.
0 -
Sun - is Tory whining about the SNP a gamechanger?
Two YouGov polls later... um, No.0 -
The proposition isn't exactly compelling from a Green standpoint. What do you think the Greens get out of it?SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
0 -
I know. It seems impossible to find Scottish Labour supporters too. We seem to have a few Scottish Lib Dems still and our Caledonian Conservative contingent remains resurgent. Maybe one of them can oblige.Pulpstar said:
You could try asking on Wings or Scotpop, but they'll all be voting SNP anyway !antifrank said:I'm in Islington South & Finsbury which will be a safe Labour seat. Can I induce anyone in Edinburgh South to vote swap with me? It could be of great assistance to my future prosperity.
0 -
I'd quite like to do a vote swap in Yeovil - for the Conservative party actually. It sums up everything I feel about this election
Anyone interested let me know, can vote any which way here in Derbyshire.0 -
Why would they?SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
Almost anywhere the Green candidate has no chance of winning. Lab candidate might well though. Vote for Green anywhere has the value of adding to their overall total, no incentive to swap.
(Especially if you think Ed is crap...)0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Isn't vote-swapping, moral questions aside, a bit Goldilocks? Not enough and it doesn't work, too much and you may let the evil-baby eating Tories entirely random party you and someone else dislike and are co-operating against via the apolitical website in through the middle.0 -
Going on simple maths you would be right, however the regional variations in England are complex and varied and in many seats especially on the Eastern side of England due to the new UKIP force incredibly hard to predict. Harlow may go as it is in the London area where Labour will go well but in Broxtowe and Amber Valley right in the top 10 marginals the Tories are encouraged enough to get hundreds out this weekend, Nicky boy was wrong on that one.DavidL said:It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.
0 -
He will be with 270 if the SNP get enough.macisback said:
Going on simple maths you would be right, however the regional variations in England are complex and varied and in many seats especially on the Eastern side of England due to the new UKIP force incredibly hard to predict. Harlow may go as it is in the London area where Labour will go well but in Broxtowe and Amber Valley right in the top 10 marginals the Tories are encouraged enough to get hundreds out this weekend, Nicky boy was wrong on that one.DavidL said:It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.0 -
Harlow will absolutely not go red. Ashcroft poll had Halfon 10% ahead. He is very popularDavidL said:It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.0 -
Harlow is unlikely to go to Labour:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Harlow.png0 -
The Green supporter gets to help kick out a Tory by voting tactically for Labour without this resulting in a reduction in the natioonal vote share for the Greens.antifrank said:
The proposition isn't exactly compelling from a Green standpoint. What do you think the Greens get out of it?SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 53s53 seconds ago
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's YouGov poll
CON 35
LAB 36
LD 7
UKIP 15
A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.6%
On Topic 5.6% swing would see 65 LAB gains from Con.
About 50 is the best hope I reckon.
In Great Yarmouth will probably finish 3rd.0 -
Owen Smith is Shadow Welsh Secretary, and actually standing in this, a Westminster election. Perfectly sensible for him to be there rather than the FM.Dair said:
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
0 -
A Green supporter for whom that is important will already be doing that.SandyRentool said:
The Green supporter gets to help kick out a Tory by voting tactically for Labour without this resulting in a reduction in the natioonal vote share for the Greens.antifrank said:
The proposition isn't exactly compelling from a Green standpoint. What do you think the Greens get out of it?SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
0 -
Mr. Owls, but that fails to take account of:
Lib Dem collapse
UKIP rise
Green rise [smaller]
The first will help the Conservatives. The second will probably harm the Conservatives more than Labour and create potential for some weird results. The third will have less impact but will harm Labour.
Also worth considering the fictional voters no longer casting a ballot due to the Coalition cruelly deciding only people who actually exist and are also alive should have a postal vote.0 -
The BBC story also "promotes" Unite the Right -- By contrast, writer and Conservative campaigner Toby Young launched a site called Unite The Right with the aim of helping Tory and UKIP supporters co-ordinate their votes in order to deliver a referendum on European Union membership and prevent a government led by Ed Miliband.trublue said:These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
Cause to double the licence fee for the Tory-led BBC ?
0 -
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.trublue said:These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.0 -
Some might be wavering - a vote swap would help them make the right choice.antifrank said:
A Green supporter for whom that is important will already be doing that.SandyRentool said:
The Green supporter gets to help kick out a Tory by voting tactically for Labour without this resulting in a reduction in the natioonal vote share for the Greens.antifrank said:
The proposition isn't exactly compelling from a Green standpoint. What do you think the Greens get out of it?SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
0 -
Ben
"Sun - is Tory whining about the SNP a gamechanger?"
Surely only the very old and doddry could possibly be scared by the idea of the Scots having any influence at Westminster and they'll be Tory anyway.
I'm possibly not typical but I like the idea of Nicola having a steadying influence on Ed0 -
Looks about right to me. I think Nicky Morgan may well increase her majority in Loughborough. She is popular as a constituency MP, on telly a fair bit and Loughborough has one of the biggest drops in registered voters.macisback said:
Going on simple maths you would be right, however the regional variations in England are complex and varied and in many seats especially on the Eastern side of England due to the new UKIP force incredibly hard to predict. Harlow may go as it is in the London area where Labour will go well but in Broxtowe and Amber Valley right in the top 10 marginals the Tories are encouraged enough to get hundreds out this weekend, Nicky boy was wrong on that one.DavidL said:It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.
Indeed with SLAB losses looking more like 40 than 30, the Lab under 250 seat band at 6/1 is looking value. That would equate to SLAB losing 40 and E and W Lab only gaining 30. I think they will probably do better than that (my prediction 270) but if under registration does the trick sub 250 is quite possible.
0 -
Tosh. The Labour candidates will be tarred and feathered in every town south of Newcastle.bigjohnowls said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 53s53 seconds ago
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's YouGov poll
CON 35
LAB 36
LD 7
UKIP 15
A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.6%
On Topic 5.6% swing would see 65 LAB gains from Con.
About 50 is the best hope I reckon.
In Great Yarmouth will probably finish 3rd.0 -
It will probably piss off as many as it persuades. The unconscious assumption that they owe Labour their votes is incredibly arrogant.SandyRentool said:
Some might be wavering - a vote swap would help them make the right choice.antifrank said:
A Green supporter for whom that is important will already be doing that.SandyRentool said:
The Green supporter gets to help kick out a Tory by voting tactically for Labour without this resulting in a reduction in the natioonal vote share for the Greens.antifrank said:
The proposition isn't exactly compelling from a Green standpoint. What do you think the Greens get out of it?SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
0 -
Leanne Wood (PC), Owen Smith (Lab), Stephen Crabb (Con), Kirsty Williams (LibDem), Nathan Gill (UKIP), Pippa Bartolotti (Green) contested the debates.foxinsoxuk said:
Sent a deputy? Thats not so bad.Dair said:
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).foxinsoxuk said:
Did Labour really not turn up?anotherDave said:
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.foxinsoxuk said:
It looks a bit of trivial effect to me.Financier said:The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
Of those people, the last two are certifiably crazy. Even by the standards set by UKIP MEPs, Nathan Gill MEP stands out as a hypocritical charlatan. Pippa Bartolotti is a member of the Green party of EnglandandWales. There is no separate Welsh Green party. Her views on Welsh language and culture are semi-fascist. Her background is murky, her strong commitment to greenery evident from the fact that she drives a Jaguar.
Kirsty Williams is sweet, but not the brightest LibDem in the Conference Hall.
Owen Smith has no connection to Wales. He was not born or brought up in Wales, but he suddenly discovered an interest on gaining the nomination for the extremely safe seat of Pontypridd.
Stephen Crabb was actually born in Inverness, but was brought up in Pembrokeshire. He is a moderately competent Tory, although already quite famous for his expenses.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.0 -
The basic premise of the 'Unite the Right' initiative seems to be that both UKIP and Conservative supporters should vote for Conservative candidates.DecrepitJohnL said:
The BBC story also "promotes" Unite the Right -- By contrast, writer and Conservative campaigner Toby Young launched a site called Unite The Right with the aim of helping Tory and UKIP supporters co-ordinate their votes in order to deliver a referendum on European Union membership and prevent a government led by Ed Miliband.trublue said:These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
Cause to double the licence fee for the Tory-led BBC ?0 -
Mr. Fire, disagree entirely.
The man with most votes gets in. It's democratic as can be. You can vote for a great individual even if you dislike their party as a whole.0 -
A large green vote in Ealing Central and Acton is the only way Labour are not going to take the seat. I was flirting with the idea of voting Green but have decided I'm going to vote for Rupa Huq, the Labour candidate. It was finding out that she's a part-time DJ that swung it for me.SandyRentool said:Grrr. Not enough Greens wanting to vote swap. Any Greens in Ealing Central & Acton ready to do a deal???
0
