politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For reference for two weeks today: The key LAB-CON battlegrounds in England and Wales (Sortable table)
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http://election.pressassociation.com/Constituencies/live_results.html
A fresh-faced Nicola Sturgeon as 1997 SNP candidate for Glasgow Govan:
http://s27.postimg.org/ffy2au78j/Nicola_Sturgeon1997.png
http://web.archive.org/web/20000816224830/http://www.bbc.co.uk/election97/framedir/candframe.htm
And to the fair folk of Englandshire, happy St George’s Day.
50 hours 50 minutes 50 seconds
Grant Shapps as the 1997 Tory candidate for Southwark North & Bermondsey:
http://s16.postimg.org/n911ad0h1/Grant_Shapps_Southwark_North.png
But Ed Miliband has killed it, it's Old Labour now, the only thing left from New Labour is Umunna."
Cyclefree: "Worse than that. Ed Milliband has preserved the worst bits of New Labour: its authoritarianism, its dismal embrace of identity politics and its contempt for civil liberties and free speech."
Well said, I absolutely detest the Labour party. They are a clear and present danger to this country, under Miliband more so than ever.
Labour hold this country, its freedoms and our national interest in contempt. In fact, many of them even reject the concept of nations themselves, particularly England by which they are embarrassed. They feel we are children to be ordered around and controlled, to be shaped as required to fit their vision of society. They are nothing like the old Christian Socialist patriots they used to be. The leadership and its leading MPs and advisors are full of controlling and unpleasant people masquerading under such headings as 'fairness' and 'equality'. They are professionals at ruining the economy, but get re-elected time and time again to do it all over.
I would not vote Labour in a million years.
Hhhmmm .... Perhaps not the bacon sandwich .... Don't want Ed dribbling on the carpets.
Trying to decide if I need the next day off work or if I can grab enough sleep without missing anything interesting.
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
Tories are down 2% higher than swing in Sunderland, LAB MAJ NAILED ON
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3051019/Too-information-Farage-bares-TV-interview-skinny-dipping-youth-plans-lead-Ukip-2030.html
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32410531
Someone we all know behind this?
But yes, the politics addiction is calling me
Sleep at 9pm?
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
(In fairness she points out I could have blocked those days out of the diary and didn't)
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
Just 7 seats to declare the next day, but bizarrely they're all in England. Every seat in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is counting overnight.
St Ives counted overnight in 1987 and 1992 so they've got no excuse, but the real disappointment is that Warwick & Leamington and Kenilworth & Southam are counting the next day once again.
Must be from The Daily Mash.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-cameron-is-whipping-up-english-nationalism-says-gordon-brown-10196872.html
I'm advised that some ardent admirers of my ARSE even have rooms set aside as a shrine to my deified organ. Likewise for OGH too .... the cult of the Bedford Baldy is a growing phenomenon unlike his hair ....
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
Clegg agent I reckon :P
http://www.labour.org.uk/people/detail/owen-smith
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2015-04-22/parties-fight-for-westminster-seats-in-wales-election-debate/
http://voteswap.org/about/website
What happens if I want to keep Labour or Greens out? Why can't I join?
Part-timer ....
Hard to forecast Wales. I would have thought PC gains just from Leanne Woods prominence and generally good performances. Is there polling evidence of Leannegasm?
Tories don't have a prayer in Brighton.
Norwich South ? Fighting each other tbh - CON no chance
Bristol West ? Well it's against the Lib Dems - but who knows if Labour or Green is more likely there... a tactical vote could well be wrong there.
Anywhere else ? Sheffield Central errm ye...
There is not one single seat a Labour voter can vote Green tactically.
Not so much in Battersea or Enfield North
Enfield North was a betting error before anyone else, thought 3-1 Labour seemed "pretty good"
I'm not making this up.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
Labour supporters should vote Green here to help stop a Tory government
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooool
They now appear to be becoming a semi permanent fixture.
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales
It's goodbye Mr Leech. Put your Bentley's on it.
Two YouGov polls later... um, No.
The Tories...Whining here?
Anyone interested let me know, can vote any which way here in Derbyshire.
Almost anywhere the Green candidate has no chance of winning. Lab candidate might well though. Vote for Green anywhere has the value of adding to their overall total, no incentive to swap.
(Especially if you think Ed is crap...)
Isn't vote-swapping, moral questions aside, a bit Goldilocks? Not enough and it doesn't work, too much and you may let the evil-baby eating Tories entirely random party you and someone else dislike and are co-operating against via the apolitical website in through the middle.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Harlow.png
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's YouGov poll
CON 35
LAB 36
LD 7
UKIP 15
A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.6%
On Topic 5.6% swing would see 65 LAB gains from Con.
About 50 is the best hope I reckon.
In Great Yarmouth will probably finish 3rd.
Lib Dem collapse
UKIP rise
Green rise [smaller]
The first will help the Conservatives. The second will probably harm the Conservatives more than Labour and create potential for some weird results. The third will have less impact but will harm Labour.
Also worth considering the fictional voters no longer casting a ballot due to the Coalition cruelly deciding only people who actually exist and are also alive should have a postal vote.
Cause to double the licence fee for the Tory-led BBC ?
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
"Sun - is Tory whining about the SNP a gamechanger?"
Surely only the very old and doddry could possibly be scared by the idea of the Scots having any influence at Westminster and they'll be Tory anyway.
I'm possibly not typical but I like the idea of Nicola having a steadying influence on Ed
Indeed with SLAB losses looking more like 40 than 30, the Lab under 250 seat band at 6/1 is looking value. That would equate to SLAB losing 40 and E and W Lab only gaining 30. I think they will probably do better than that (my prediction 270) but if under registration does the trick sub 250 is quite possible.
Of those people, the last two are certifiably crazy. Even by the standards set by UKIP MEPs, Nathan Gill MEP stands out as a hypocritical charlatan. Pippa Bartolotti is a member of the Green party of EnglandandWales. There is no separate Welsh Green party. Her views on Welsh language and culture are semi-fascist. Her background is murky, her strong commitment to greenery evident from the fact that she drives a Jaguar.
Kirsty Williams is sweet, but not the brightest LibDem in the Conference Hall.
Owen Smith has no connection to Wales. He was not born or brought up in Wales, but he suddenly discovered an interest on gaining the nomination for the extremely safe seat of Pontypridd.
Stephen Crabb was actually born in Inverness, but was brought up in Pembrokeshire. He is a moderately competent Tory, although already quite famous for his expenses.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
The man with most votes gets in. It's democratic as can be. You can vote for a great individual even if you dislike their party as a whole.