These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
The BBC story also "promotes" Unite the Right -- By contrast, writer and Conservative campaigner Toby Young launched a site called Unite The Right with the aim of helping Tory and UKIP supporters co-ordinate their votes in order to deliver a referendum on European Union membership and prevent a government led by Ed Miliband.
Cause to double the licence fee for the Tory-led BBC ?
The basic premise of the 'Unite the Right' initiative seems to be that both UKIP and Conservative supporters should vote for Conservative candidates.
The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.
Did Labour really not turn up?
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
Sent a deputy? Thats not so bad.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
Mr. Antifrank, indeed. Many Kippers left the Conservatives and they're unlikely to tactically vote for a party they feel has drifted too far leftward. Similarly, many Conservatives see UKIP as a contemptible sprog to be crushed underfoot.
Be interesting to see if there's tactical voting in Scotland.
It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
Going on simple maths you would be right, however the regional variations in England are complex and varied and in many seats especially on the Eastern side of England due to the new UKIP force incredibly hard to predict. Harlow may go as it is in the London area where Labour will go well but in Broxtowe and Amber Valley right in the top 10 marginals the Tories are encouraged enough to get hundreds out this weekend, Nicky boy was wrong on that one.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.
Looks about right to me. I think Nicky Morgan may well increase her majority in Loughborough. She is popular as a constituency MP, on telly a fair bit and Loughborough has one of the biggest drops in registered voters.
Indeed with SLAB losses looking more like 40 than 30, the Lab under 250 seat band at 6/1 is looking value. That would equate to SLAB losing 40 and E and W Lab only gaining 30. I think they will probably do better than that (my prediction 270) but if under registration does the trick sub 250 is quite possible.
How is under-registration in Loughborough now that 0.5m registered online on Monday? I'm guessing this is mainly the large student vote in the town?
The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.
Did Labour really not turn up?
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
Sent a deputy? Thats not so bad.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
How is Nathan Gill not welsh?
Is there any evidence that Nathan Gill would actually describe himself as Welsh?
His main connection to Wales is he ran a company in Ynys Mon that employed 180 people (mainly from Eastern Europe and the far East) to work in care homes. The company collapsed in mysterious circumstances.
In all honesty, UKIP have a chance in South Wales. But, not with characters like Nathan Gill running the party.
It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
Going on simple maths you would be right, however the regional variations in England are complex and varied and in many seats especially on the Eastern side of England due to the new UKIP force incredibly hard to predict. Harlow may go as it is in the London area where Labour will go well but in Broxtowe and Amber Valley right in the top 10 marginals the Tories are encouraged enough to get hundreds out this weekend, Nicky boy was wrong on that one.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.
Looks about right to me. I think Nicky Morgan may well increase her majority in Loughborough. She is popular as a constituency MP, on telly a fair bit and Loughborough has one of the biggest drops in registered voters.
Indeed with SLAB losses looking more like 40 than 30, the Lab under 250 seat band at 6/1 is looking value. That would equate to SLAB losing 40 and E and W Lab only gaining 30. I think they will probably do better than that (my prediction 270) but if under registration does the trick sub 250 is quite possible.
How is under-registration in Loughborough now that 0.5m registered online on Monday? I'm guessing this is mainly the large student vote in the town?
Loughborough students = Tory engineers. Keeping them off the register is good for Labour.
PS cont...I wonder if anyone has considered the possibility that Nicola might be a positive for Ed's chances? She's by a distance the brightest and most colourful of the UK politicians and only the dullest haven't been impressed.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
I would like to think that if I had grown up in a place from the age of 7 then I could reasonably be considered to be a 'local'. Or does that not meet your strict racial stereotyping?
The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
A Green supporter drew my attention to it and I mentioned it in an email without a recommendation (Labour would prefer everyone voting Lab, Greens the opposite). Since the Greens in reality want to maximise votes and Labour wants to maximise gains, it has its attractions for an anti-Tory Green, though obviously not for anyone who thinks Lab and Con are just as bad.
There was a similar operation in 2005 when Norman Lamb and I tolerated someone doing a Norfolk N - Broxtowe Lib/Lab vote swap - I don't know who organised that either. I can't see that it's undemocratic or even illegal, as some suggest: with PR it would be irrelevant, but FPTP pushes people into this sort of thing. There's nothing to stop the a Tory voteswap either, but they're a bit short of people who like them to swap with - UKIP, maybe? This mirrors the likely anti-Con majority in Parliament - the Conservatives don't have enough people who like them better than Labour, outside their actual supporters.
Leanne Wood (PC), Owen Smith (Lab), Stephen Crabb (Con), Kirsty Williams (LibDem), Nathan Gill (UKIP), Pippa Bartolotti (Green) contested the debates.
Of those people, the last two are certifiably crazy. Even by the standards set by UKIP MEPs, Nathan Gill MEP stands out as a hypocritical charlatan. Pippa Bartolotti is a member of the Green party of EnglandandWales. There is no separate Welsh Green party. Her views on Welsh language and culture are semi-fascist. Her background is murky, her strong commitment to greenery evident from the fact that she drives a Jaguar.
Kirsty Williams is sweet, but not the brightest LibDem in the Conference Hall.
Owen Smith has no connection to Wales. He was not born or brought up in Wales, but he suddenly discovered an interest on gaining the nomination for the extremely safe seat of Pontypridd.
Stephen Crabb was actually born in Inverness, but was brought up in Pembrokeshire. He is a moderately competent Tory, although already quite famous for his expenses.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
The two voters seem to be part of a growing trend. VoteSwap, which "helps Labour and Green supporters swap votes to keep out the Tories" in constituencies in England, says it has had more than 10,000 pledges to swap votes.
Swap My Vote, which has no political agenda and pairs voters "in order to minimise wasted votes", says it has had more than 1,000 people sign up to the site since it launched last week.
Any thoughts on the Welsh debate last night? Sounds like PC had a good night again. Is Welsh Labour as hollowed out as SLAB? Or are we another election away from that?
Any likely PC bets welcolmed.
I've tried and failed to find a video of it. The twitter commentary looks like partisan spam.
Did Labour really not turn up?
Carwyn Jones never showed up and sent someone I've never heard of (but then I've never heard of anyone in Welsh Labour other than Carwyn Jones).
I can't see decisions like that going unpunished but the Welsh are particularly subjugated so maybe it won't make a big difference.
Sent a deputy? Thats not so bad.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
How is Nathan Gill not welsh?
In all honesty, UKIP have a chance in South Wales. But, not with characters like Nathan Gill running the party.
Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK.
Leanne Wood (PC), Owen Smith (Lab), Stephen Crabb (Con), Kirsty Williams (LibDem), Nathan Gill (UKIP), Pippa Bartolotti (Green) contested the debates.
Of those people, the last two are certifiably crazy. Even by the standards set by UKIP MEPs, Nathan Gill MEP stands out as a hypocritical charlatan. Pippa Bartolotti is a member of the Green party of EnglandandWales. There is no separate Welsh Green party. Her views on Welsh language and culture are semi-fascist. Her background is murky, her strong commitment to greenery evident from the fact that she drives a Jaguar.
Kirsty Williams is sweet, but not the brightest LibDem in the Conference Hall.
Owen Smith has no connection to Wales. He was not born or brought up in Wales, but he suddenly discovered an interest on gaining the nomination for the extremely safe seat of Pontypridd.
Stephen Crabb was actually born in Inverness, but was brought up in Pembrokeshire. He is a moderately competent Tory, although already quite famous for his expenses.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
Leanne Wood (PC), Owen Smith (Lab), Stephen Crabb (Con), Kirsty Williams (LibDem), Nathan Gill (UKIP), Pippa Bartolotti (Green) contested the debates.
Of those people, the last two are certifiably crazy. Even by the standards set by UKIP MEPs, Nathan Gill MEP stands out as a hypocritical charlatan. Pippa Bartolotti is a member of the Green party of EnglandandWales. There is no separate Welsh Green party. Her views on Welsh language and culture are semi-fascist. Her background is murky, her strong commitment to greenery evident from the fact that she drives a Jaguar.
Kirsty Williams is sweet, but not the brightest LibDem in the Conference Hall.
Owen Smith has no connection to Wales. He was not born or brought up in Wales, but he suddenly discovered an interest on gaining the nomination for the extremely safe seat of Pontypridd.
Stephen Crabb was actually born in Inverness, but was brought up in Pembrokeshire. He is a moderately competent Tory, although already quite famous for his expenses.
Of the candidates, I’d say only Leanne, Kirsty and Stephen had any right to present themselves as representatives of Wales. Owen is a carpetbagger. The remaining two English exports remind me of the 164,000 people exported from England to Australia, until the practice was stopped in 1868.
Leanne is no Nicola, but given the ragtag opposition, Leanne did rather easily win.
Was Bartolotti challenged on antisemitism?
What's the backstory there?
I read that as Balotelli and was about to say "he was adopted by a Jewish family ... "
Is Dan Hodges starting to panic? His rebuttal of why more and more people are saying the maths is favouring Ed M seemed less smooth than his usual explanations for why Ed M will lose.
Roger..Maybe its time for him to stop being so timid...He is waiting for Miss Whiplash,Scottish version..to tell him what to be..after all, that's what he will be paying her for..
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
I would argue the contrary - in each constituency it is the majority of people whose votes are significant. It is only the minority of people whose vote don't result in a winning candidate who complain. It sort of comes out of the 'Everyone must have prizes' ideology of the left.
The man with most votes gets in. It's democratic as can be. You can vote for a great individual even if you dislike their party as a whole.
Leaving the inherent sexism in your response aside, it's hardly democratic if most of the votes are ignored. FPTP does not make a distinction between a result of Con 9000, Lab 8000 and LibDem 5000 and another of Con 9000, LibDem 8500 and Lab 4500. The 9000 Con voters end up with more of a say than the 13000 Lab and LibDem
Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK.
Quentin Letts column in today's daily mail is worth a read if anyone is interested in Broxtowe and Anna Soubry v Nick (P)
PS cont...I wonder if anyone has considered the possibility that Nicola might be a positive for Ed's chances? She's by a distance the brightest and most colourful of the UK politicians and only the dullest haven't been impressed.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
This is a good point.
Missed spectacularly by the Dan Hodges punditocracy for whom any Tory obsession - no matter how far removed from people's real world experience - must by definition be good for the Tories.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
I would argue the contrary - in each constituency it is the majority of people whose votes are significant. It is only the minority of people whose vote don't result in a winning candidate who complain. It sort of comes out of the 'Everyone must have prizes' ideology of the left.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 53s53 seconds ago ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's YouGov poll CON 35 LAB 36 LD 7 UKIP 15 A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.6%
On Topic 5.6% swing would see 65 LAB gains from Con.
About 50 is the best hope I reckon.
In Great Yarmouth will probably finish 3rd.
Tosh. The Labour candidates will be tarred and feathered in every town south of Newcastle.
I've given up on YouGov as an accurate pollster ( I may of course be wrong). People here saying they've been polled six times by Yougov does not make it a representative sample of the UK, just a representative sample of Yougov subscribers.
PS cont...I wonder if anyone has considered the possibility that Nicola might be a positive for Ed's chances? She's by a distance the brightest and most colourful of the UK politicians and only the dullest haven't been impressed.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
This is a good point.
Missed spectacularly by the Dan Hodges punditocracy for whom any Tory obsession - no matter how far removed from people's real world experience - must by definition be good for the Tories.
They do miss that. But there are Tory commentators who don't see positives in everything, just as not all the Labour pundits see things positively for their side no matter what. Only most of them.
Is Dan Hodges starting to panic? His rebuttal of why more and more people are saying the maths is favouring Ed M seemed less smooth than his usual explanations for why Ed M will lose.
Worried about the prospect of having to stage a rather gruesome spectacle down Whitehall in 15 days' time?
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Mr. NorthWales, one suspects Letts will not necessarily be pro-Palmer.
Mr. Fire, bit sleepy, and English does have a slight male bias (though no-one complains if a ship gets called 'she'). I probably would've written 'or woman' if I'd had more caffeine at the time.
Winning's winning whether it's by an inch or a mile. If I run 100m in 12s, I lose to Usain Bolt. If I run 100m in 3 days, I also lose to Bolt. The margin of victory is not relevant.
The argument that the most popular candidate winning is undemocratic is baffling. You can't just add up the totals of non-Conservatives voters and pretend that's an anti-Tory alliance.
What if it's 9k Labour, 8k Con and 5k Lib Dem. The 13k Con/Lib Dems don't get their chaps (or ladies) in. But so what? That's democracy. Get most votes, you win.
PR is the 'all must have prizes' compromise of electoral systems, which also shifts power from the people to the parties.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
I would argue the contrary - in each constituency it is the majority of people whose votes are significant. It is only the minority of people whose vote don't result in a winning candidate who complain. It sort of comes out of the 'Everyone must have prizes' ideology of the left.
So, if the tories win most votes but fewer seats than Labour, you'll be perfectly happy?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 53s53 seconds ago ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's YouGov poll CON 35 LAB 36 LD 7 UKIP 15 A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.6%
On Topic 5.6% swing would see 65 LAB gains from Con.
About 50 is the best hope I reckon.
In Great Yarmouth will probably finish 3rd.
Tosh. The Labour candidates will be tarred and feathered in every town south of Newcastle.
I've given up on YouGov as an accurate pollster ( I may of course be wrong). People here saying they've been polled six times by Yougov does not make it a representative sample of the UK, just a representative sample of Yougov subscribers.
I don't think there's anything wrong with YouGov's numbers being constant. I think people make their minds up long before the election campaign.
Owen Smith is the son of Dai Smith, the chair of the Welsh Arts Council. His website describes himself as "brought up in Pontypridd", and he was the producer of the main BBC Wales political programme 'Dragons Eye'.
Do you have to be literally born down the pot noodle mines before you can claim a 'connection' to Wales?
PS cont...I wonder if anyone has considered the possibility that Nicola might be a positive for Ed's chances? She's by a distance the brightest and most colourful of the UK politicians and only the dullest haven't been impressed.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
The weird thing about using this in a campaign is that it has so many possible strategies for English voters, but none of them are particularly obvious.
Like SNP? a) Vote Lab to make sure the left get in. b) Vote Con so Lab don't get too many and need SNP.
Dislike SNP? a) Vote Lab to give them their own majority. b) Vote Con and hope they get enough to block minority Lab, and also hope they don't cut a deal with SNP c) Vote LibDem, because they'll help with either non-SNP coalition so you don't have to guess. d) Vote UKIP because - Carswell seemed to think it would help. Stand up for England or something.
Dedicated Tories seem to be assuming Dislike and (b) is a no-brainer, which it probably is if you're a dedicated Tory, but in that case you were probably going to vote for the Tories anyhow.
What's baffling me is that the Tories seem to think they're better spending time sending voters down this rabbit hole of game theory than reminding the voters why they kicked Labour out five years ago.
Mr. NorthWales, one suspects Letts will not necessarily be pro-Palmer.
Mr. Fire, bit sleepy, and English does have a slight male bias (though no-one complains if a ship gets called 'she'). I probably would've written 'or woman' if I'd had more caffeine at the time.
Winning's winning whether it's by an inch or a mile. If I run 100m in 12s, I lose to Usain Bolt. If I run 100m in 3 days, I also lose to Bolt. The margin of victory is not relevant.
The argument that the most popular candidate winning is undemocratic is baffling. You can't just add up the totals of non-Conservatives voters and pretend that's an anti-Tory alliance.
What if it's 9k Labour, 8k Con and 5k Lib Dem. The 13k Con/Lib Dems don't get their chaps (or ladies) in. But so what? That's democracy. Get most votes, you win.
PR is the 'all must have prizes' compromise of electoral systems, which also shifts power from the people to the parties.
Agreed re Nick but the column does add to the increasing probability that the SNP controversy will have a positive conservative impact on English constituancies
Owen Smith is the son of Dai Smith, the chair of the Welsh Arts Council. His website describes himself as "brought up in Pontypridd", and he was the producer of the main BBC Wales political programme 'Dragons Eye'.
Do you have to be literally born down the pot noodle mines before you can claim a 'connection' to Wales?
Yes, it's a ridiculous claim. Personally, I have absolutely no connection with Wales apart from the fact that I was born there (we moved before my second birthday).
It is effectively this table which has had me calling this election for a Labour plurality since Christmas. As Mike has repeatedly pointed out Labour got absolutely hammered in England in 2010 (well he didn't quite put it that way) being 11.4% behind on the popular vote. With the best will in the world it is difficult to see that lead being more than 5% this time, probably less.
That involves a swing to Labour of 3.2% giving Labour just over 40 gains. And that is as good as it gets. On current polling target 66 Harlow probably goes (it may go anyway given the stronger Labour performance in that region). Even with gains from the Lib Dems that has the Tories struggling to get into the 260s and only the disaster in Scotland stopping Labour from having an absolute majority.
Given the declared approach of the SNP that means Ed will indeed be PM. I am really struggling to see any other result.
Going on simple maths you would be right, however the regional variations in England are complex and varied and in many seats especially on the Eastern side of England due to the new UKIP force incredibly hard to predict. Harlow may go as it is in the London area where Labour will go well but in Broxtowe and Amber Valley right in the top 10 marginals the Tories are encouraged enough to get hundreds out this weekend, Nicky boy was wrong on that one.
Loughborough is 42 High Peak is 53 and Labour have little or no hope in those I suspect there are others in that list the same, Labour look good for quite a few gains in London and the North West but the rest of the country they won't make great headway. At present I would estimate about 40 Labour gains in England and Wales including the Liberal gains. If the Scotland preictions hold that won't be enough for Eddie, 260-270 seats he won't be PM.
Looks about right to me. I think Nicky Morgan may well increase her majority in Loughborough. She is popular as a constituency MP, on telly a fair bit and Loughborough has one of the biggest drops in registered voters.
Indeed with SLAB losses looking more like 40 than 30, the Lab under 250 seat band at 6/1 is looking value. That would equate to SLAB losing 40 and E and W Lab only gaining 30. I think they will probably do better than that (my prediction 270) but if under registration does the trick sub 250 is quite possible.
How is under-registration in Loughborough now that 0.5m registered online on Monday? I'm guessing this is mainly the large student vote in the town?
There had been a drop in registrations of 8000 or so. I do not think that was fully made up.
Loughborough is not a purely engineering university (though it is certainly very good at it!).
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
I would argue the contrary - in each constituency it is the majority of people whose votes are significant. It is only the minority of people whose vote don't result in a winning candidate who complain. It sort of comes out of the 'Everyone must have prizes' ideology of the left.
I disapprove of it, but it is not as morally wrong a practice as some on here have made out at times, as though it is as good as illegal or involves an actual trade of a voting slip or something.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Osborne was on Radio 4 this morning. Fantastic. The Tory election campaign is worse than pathetic and is really starting to mirror Hague's 2001 debacle- "10 days to save the pound." This time it's "10 days to save us from Alex Salmond." He then reeled off the names of a list of banks that thought the same.
Note to Osborne- this kind of scaremongering campaign doesn't wash. It sounds pathetic, it looks desperate, and it won't work. The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric.
PS cont...I wonder if anyone has considered the possibility that Nicola might be a positive for Ed's chances? She's by a distance the brightest and most colourful of the UK politicians and only the dullest haven't been impressed.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
I think she's attractive to left-wing voters precisely because they perceive she will pull Labour to the Left in government.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
I would argue the contrary - in each constituency it is the majority of people whose votes are significant. It is only the minority of people whose vote don't result in a winning candidate who complain. It sort of comes out of the 'Everyone must have prizes' ideology of the left.
As someone who has never voted for a winning candidate in any parliamentary constituency I've lived in, there might be something in that - if the reverse was true, I might be less concerned. I even moved to a key battleground marginal (not for that reason - purely coincidental) and then found my ward got moved to the neighbouring much less marginal seat next door.
It really does hurt knowing your vote never really has much value other than adding to the national party vote total and % share.
But the fact is, FPTP is becoming untenable and more so as we become more fragmented and the "big two" are no longer so dominant. Moreover, as someone of the centre right, I can see how it is shafting the chances of me seeing governments of similar ideology from being formed, possibly ever again. We could be thrust into a lifetime of left or centrist administrations with FPTP. If GE 2015 was being fought under a more proportional system, then Cameron would have a good chance of remaining PM.
Under FPTP, and with UKIP present, he doesn't stand much of a chance and never did.
"Is Dan Hodges starting to panic? His rebuttal of why more and more people are saying the maths is favouring Ed M seemed less smooth than his usual explanations for why Ed M will lose."
This political cross-dressing (or has Dan stopped the pretence of not being a Tory?) is quite interesting. I read an article by Rod Liddle explaining why he was voting Labour. It was touch and go between Labour and UKIP apparently but Labour won.
But if the Labour Party was the party that Rod Liddle thinks it is then it would certainly lose my vote and I suspect most other Labour well wishers. I wondered whether it might have been a spoof but it wasn't.
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Osborne was on Radio 4 this morning. Fantastic. The Tory election campaign is worse than pathetic and is really starting to mirror Hague's 2001 debacle- "10 days to save the pound." This time it's "10 days to save us from Alex Salmond." He then reeled off the names of a list of banks that thought the same.
Note to Osborne- this kind of scaremongering campaign doesn't wash. It sounds pathetic, it looks desperate, and it won't work. The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric.
Empty rhetoric??? That has been Labour's entire campaign strategy.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
I would argue the contrary - in each constituency it is the majority of people whose votes are significant. It is only the minority of people whose vote don't result in a winning candidate who complain. It sort of comes out of the 'Everyone must have prizes' ideology of the left.
It is, in fact, the majority of all voters (in both 2005 and 2010) who didn't get "prizes" under bonkers FPTP. Will probably happen again next month.
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come in
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!
Hmm. I wouldn't want to miss Mr Clegg throwing a hissy fit at the Hallam count.
Sleep at 9pm?
I may plan go for a tactical nap at 1030 to 0230; but I know that temptation will be too strong. It will be sofa, a few refreshments and laptop for me.
I was intending something similar, but from @AndyJS' list it seems that Nuneaton - one of the seats on Mike's list - is expected to declare at 1am. At the same time Dagenham & Rainham will give some indication of UKIPs performance. If I'm not going to sleep through all of it I'd want to be up for those.
PS cont...I wonder if anyone has considered the possibility that Nicola might be a positive for Ed's chances? She's by a distance the brightest and most colourful of the UK politicians and only the dullest haven't been impressed.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
The weird thing about using this in a campaign is that it has so many possible strategies for English voters, but none of them are particularly obvious.
Like SNP? a) Vote Lab to make sure the left get in. b) Vote Con so Lab don't get too many and need SNP.
Dislike SNP? a) Vote Lab to give them their own majority. b) Vote Con and hope they get enough to block minority Lab, and also hope they don't cut a deal with SNP c) Vote LibDem, because they'll help with either non-SNP coalition so you don't have to guess. d) Vote UKIP because - Carswell seemed to think it would help. Stand up for England or something.
Dedicated Tories seem to be assuming Dislike and (b) is a no-brainer, which it probably is if you're a dedicated Tory, but in that case you were probably going to vote for the Tories anyhow.
What's baffling me is that the Tories seem to think they're better spending time sending voters down this rabbit hole of game theory than reminding the voters why they kicked Labour out five years ago.
I think Osborne and Crosby's reasoning is that they've got as many votes as they're going to get through the long-term economic plan message (mainly 2010GE Tory vote retention and LD switchers) but haven't drawn down enough UKIP voters with that.
This Lab-SNP warning strategy is designed to drawn down those UKIP voters, to get the Tories over the line. I agree with other posters who've said it's the best one they have.
This should be fun - David Cameron to launch the conservatives first 'England manifesto' tomorrow
Haha, desperate times for desperate measures. On the hoof campaigning- doubtless Osborne typed the thing up in a blind panic last night.
If Cameron loses, it'll be interesting what comes out in the wash of this ramshackle of a campaign. I bet that Cameron would not support an Osborne leadership bid, not in a million years.
I think Cameron, away from the malign grip of Osborne, will come out as a decent, thoughtful and non partisan character who will stand above politics. Osborne on the other hand will crawl under some moss infested stone where he belongs.
But I guess your views on the Greens' copyright policy depend on whether you write to get rich or you write to produce great work. If the former, I can see that it would be a bit of a bummer. But perhaps we should be encouraging the latter.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
Yet another post that makes just as much sense applied to tactical voting as it does vote swapping.
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Osborne was on Radio 4 this morning. Fantastic. The Tory election campaign is worse than pathetic and is really starting to mirror Hague's 2001 debacle- "10 days to save the pound." This time it's "10 days to save us from Alex Salmond." He then reeled off the names of a list of banks that thought the same.
Note to Osborne- this kind of scaremongering campaign doesn't wash. It sounds pathetic, it looks desperate, and it won't work. The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric.
Empty rhetoric??? That has been Labour's entire campaign strategy.
I meant empty threats- the 10 ten days to save the pound, now 10 day to save us from Salmond. Pathetic really, back of a postage stamp stuff.
For some reason I thought most seats would count 9-5 the following day. I may have to stay up now. Doh!
I'm thinking exit poll probably available before 10:30, then sleep until 4:00 or so at which point there'll still be uncertainty about the result and a fair few marginals to come in
Sounds like a plan. I'm in!
But you'd miss six hours of scintillating discussion of the 10 or so seats which have declared!!
Hmm. I wouldn't want to miss Mr Clegg throwing a hissy fit at the Hallam count.
Sleep at 9pm?
I may plan go for a tactical nap at 1030 to 0230; but I know that temptation will be too strong. It will be sofa, a few refreshments and laptop for me.
I was intending something similar, but from @AndyJS' list it seems that Nuneaton - one of the seats on Mike's list - is expected to declare at 1am. At the same time Dagenham & Rainham will give some indication of UKIPs performance. If I'm not going to sleep through all of it I'd want to be up for those.
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Osborne was on Radio 4 this morning. Fantastic. The Tory election campaign is worse than pathetic and is really starting to mirror Hague's 2001 debacle- "10 days to save the pound." This time it's "10 days to save us from Alex Salmond." He then reeled off the names of a list of banks that thought the same.
Note to Osborne- this kind of scaremongering campaign doesn't wash. It sounds pathetic, it looks desperate, and it won't work. The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric.
What is wrong with the Tory campaign is not the scaremongering about the possible Ed/Nicola love-in after the election but the limp performance of Cameron. He protests he is working non-stop and I'm sure he is, that's not the problem -it's the way he's spending HIS time . He needs to be out there meeting real voters and exhibiting genuine passion, maybe even taking a leaf out of Major's soapbox. It is all too controlled and boring. Ed looks like he wants it more and sometimes that's what can propel people over the line in a tight race.
For info, they are linked to various people associated with Compass in particular, and various other 'progressive' groups - Our Kingdom, NeF, Move Your Money, Climate Rush and so on - all the usual kind of suspects in flatpack tactical left campaigns.
That's not to imply that these groups give support, but top show the background of the bods.
Compass being at the centre makes me wonder whether it should be registered as a Third Party campaign organisation, as should perhaps Unite the Right.
A couple of complaints to the registration body might be interesting.
But I guess your views on the Greens' copyright policy depend on whether you write to get rich or you write to produce great work. If the former, I can see that it would be a bit of a bummer. But perhaps we should be encouraging the latter.
But even people who 'produce great work' need to earn a living. And the difference in sales between the ephemeral bestseller and the enduring classic would often be between the short-term and the long-term.
But I guess your views on the Greens' copyright policy depend on whether you write to get rich or you write to produce great work. If the former, I can see that it would be a bit of a bummer. But perhaps we should be encouraging the latter.
But even people who 'produce great work' need to earn a living. And the difference in sales between the ephemeral bestseller and the enduring classic would often be between the short-term and the long-term.
Owen Smith is the son of Dai Smith, the chair of the Welsh Arts Council. His website describes himself as "brought up in Pontypridd", and he was the producer of the main BBC Wales political programme 'Dragons Eye'.
Do you have to be literally born down the pot noodle mines before you can claim a 'connection' to Wales?
Yes, it's a ridiculous claim. Personally, I have absolutely no connection with Wales apart from the fact that I was born there (we moved before my second birthday).
Equally I was born and raised in England, but all my family are Welsh, so when it comes to Rugby I wear the Wales shirt with pride.
YBarddCwsc would probably have me chucked out the Millennium stadium for not being 'pure Welsh'.
Has anyone seen the data tables for Yougov relating to the Tom Newton Dunn tweet from a couple of days ago about two million potential Anti-SNP switchers?
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
You shouldn't be surprised that the "people's decision" to retain FPTP with all its flaws leads to some "people's decision" to exploit or try to circumvent those flaws.
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Osborne was on Radio 4 this morning. Fantastic. The Tory election campaign is worse than pathetic and is really starting to mirror Hague's 2001 debacle- "10 days to save the pound." This time it's "10 days to save us from Alex Salmond." He then reeled off the names of a list of banks that thought the same.
Note to Osborne- this kind of scaremongering campaign doesn't wash. It sounds pathetic, it looks desperate, and it won't work. The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric.
Empty rhetoric??? That has been Labour's entire campaign strategy.
I meant empty threats- the 10 ten days to save the pound, now 10 day to save us from Salmond. Pathetic really, back of a postage stamp stuff.
I concur.
What's really frustrating is that the Tories have a decent record to put before voters, and should be talking with enthusiasm and freedom about what a Tory Majority govt might bring in the next sunnier 5 years free of the shackles of coalition.
It's not as if desperation is all they've got. They really frustrate me. What a shower and a shambles.
FPT - "I totally agree that New Labour was the worst government this country ever had. But Ed Miliband has killed it, it's Old Labour now, the only thing left from New Labour is Umunna."
Cyclefree: "Worse than that. Ed Milliband has preserved the worst bits of New Labour: its authoritarianism, its dismal embrace of identity politics and its contempt for civil liberties and free speech."
Well said, I absolutely detest the Labour party. They are a clear and present danger to this country, under Miliband more so than ever.
Labour hold this country, its freedoms and our national interest in contempt. In fact, many of them even reject the concept of nations themselves, particularly England by which they are embarrassed. They feel we are children to be ordered around and controlled, to be shaped as required to fit their vision of society. They are nothing like the old Christian Socialist patriots they used to be. The leadership and its leading MPs and advisors are full of controlling and unpleasant people masquerading under such headings as 'fairness' and 'equality'. They are professionals at ruining the economy, but get re-elected time and time again to do it all over.
This should be fun - David Cameron to launch the conservatives first 'England manifesto' tomorrow
Haha, desperate times for desperate measures. On the hoof campaigning- doubtless Osborne typed the thing up in a blind panic last night.
If Cameron loses, it'll be interesting what comes out in the wash of this ramshackle of a campaign. I bet that Cameron would not support an Osborne leadership bid, not in a million years.
I think Cameron, away from the malign grip of Osborne, will come out as a decent, thoughtful and non partisan character who will stand above politics. Osborne on the other hand will crawl under some moss infested stone where he belongs.
I agree with your comments about David Cameron standing above politics at some time in the future but right now he is leading the daily agenda with the EU meeting today, the England manifesto tomorrow, then tributes to the Royal baby shortly, and before anyone knows we will be in the last week of the campaign by which time the SNP issue will be firmly in voters minds
Of course Leanne Wood is not standing for election as a MP and is only an AM on the basis of the constituency list (losers' list) and not as an elected constituency member.
Her plea last night for more money for Wales is laughable as currently the Welsh Assembly is very incompetent on spending wisely and fritters away money on small bits and pieces that employ people for a short period and brings no lasting improvement to the infrastructure or society. It has been called to account many times over losing vast sums due to fraud. Its record on spending Europen money is even worse.
Ms Wood is to the left of Labour and fighting over the same part of the electorate.
Has anyone seen the data tables for Yougov relating to the Tom Newton Dunn tweet from a couple of days ago about two million potential Anti-SNP switchers?
Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK.
Quentin Letts column in today's daily mail is worth a read if anyone is interested in Broxtowe and Anna Soubry v Nick (P)
"On doorsteps in Nottinghamshire, where I later visited Broxtowe, there was what you could call a woadish worry about Picts or their modern counterparts – the Scots Nats.
I was with Tory candidate Anna Soubry, a fiery old bird who in 2010 took this seat from a ghastly Labour droner called Palmer. He is standing again, even though he pocketed a vast pay-off from the Commons five years ago.
Nearly all the voters I met mentioned SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. They were worried about her."
But I guess your views on the Greens' copyright policy depend on whether you write to get rich or you write to produce great work. If the former, I can see that it would be a bit of a bummer. But perhaps we should be encouraging the latter.
It doesn't matter which one you do,. The idea of someone else (usually a business) making money out of something that is purely your creation whilst you are perhaps struggling to get by is not exactly one any of us would enjoy. And of course it is not a case of 'getting rich'. For the vast majority of creative people it is a case of making enough money from your work to be able to continue doing it. Something that would almost certainly end for most people under these proposals.
But I guess your views on the Greens' copyright policy depend on whether you write to get rich or you write to produce great work. If the former, I can see that it would be a bit of a bummer. But perhaps we should be encouraging the latter.
The current American copyright policy of "However long the Disney Corporation wants it to be" is clearly ludicrous. I've written computer games for a (failed) living so I have a dog in the copyright fight, I believe in strong copyright enforcement (so the legalise peer to peer copying if not done as a business can sod right off) but on the time limit as it stands is too long. I'm fine with "life of author" as the copyright term and I consider 14 years too short but I'd be happy with 28 years as a reasonable compromise instead of life of author.
Making it impossible to patent software is a good thing.
"What's baffling me is that the Tories seem to think they're better spending time sending voters down this rabbit hole of game theory than reminding the voters why they kicked Labour out five years ago. "
As so often you've hit the nail on the head. Their campaign should have written itself. Labour screwed the economy-we fixed it. With a big full stop. I'm sure the reason Ed isn't refuting any of this Scottish stuff is because it suits him perfectly.
Imagine if in a few years I write a book that sells a huge number, and people discover my other books. Are you really saying that I shouldn't be making any money on my earlier works if they're more than 14 years old and they've been copied and re-released for free by other people?
But I guess your views on the Greens' copyright policy depend on whether you write to get rich or you write to produce great work. If the former, I can see that it would be a bit of a bummer. But perhaps we should be encouraging the latter.
It doesn't matter which one you do,. The idea of someone else (usually a business) making money out of something that is purely your creation whilst you are perhaps struggling to get by is not exactly one any of us would enjoy. And of course it is not a case of 'getting rich'. For the vast majority of creative people it is a case of making enough money from your work to be able to continue doing it. Something that would almost certainly end for most people under these proposals.
The Greens advocate a citizens' income, which is presumably intended to ensure that most people should be able to continue doing it.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
You shouldn't be surprised that the "people's decision" to retain FPTP with all its flaws leads to some "people's decision" to exploit or try to circumvent those flaws.
Weren't you paying attention? We had a referrendum where the country chose between "AV" and "FPTP (Except that one bit that PB user Charles doesn't like)", and I think it returned a clear message.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
People voted not to switch to AV, not to endorse FPTP. If (as is seems highly plausible) we get results like Con Most Votes, Lab Most Seats and UKIP getting 1 or 0 seats on double the votes of the LibDems, expect the likes of the Daily Mail to develop a sudden appetite for electoral reform.
Lord Ashcroft, if you're listening would love to see a Yns Mons and Ceredigion constituency poll.
Llanelli and Aberconwy would also be of interest.
Oh and Arfon, & both Carmarthenshire seats.
Wales is a bit of a mystery seatwise !
Ynys Mon will probably stay Labour but depends really on how the huge number of Independents vote. Ceredigion will be retained by LD but majority may be reduced as Labour have a more energetic and youthful candidate and there are more Labour banners than seen previously.
A full-length novel often takes a year (I've spent perhaps two and a half on Kingdom Asunder). Why the hell should other people make money off of my hard work or be able to offer it for free? It's despicable and indefensible, and how Mr. Antifrank thinks it'll encourage writers is beyond me.
Writing would become the preserve of the idle rich.
Mr. Antifrank, it's easy to harm people through severely curtailing copyright. It's rather more difficult to grow the magic money trees needed to throw an income at everyone in the country.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
Yet another post that makes just as much sense applied to tactical voting as it does vote swapping.
Tactical voting is different, because you are voting in your own constituency.
I find it a little depressing that someone has such a negative world view that they would vote to keep someone out rather than vote for their true preference, but they are entitled to do that if they want.
It's the subversion of the constituency principle that's the issue: the bloke in Bedford, for example, is diluting the unfettered right of the people of Twickenham to choose their own representative in Parliament.
These websites are a disgrace and should be outlawed (if they are not already illegal) and shut down immediately. They are circumventing democracy in this country. Also no surprise to see the BBC promoting voteswap which is basically an anti-conservative website.
It's definitely time to accelerate plans to scrap the license fee altogether.
These website are a logical consequence of FPTP which renders most people's votes meaningless. That is what is really circumventing democracy.
Replace FPTP with a proper voting system and the websites will disappear.
That's a great idea.
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
FPTP is an unrepresentative system that's forces people to consider not voting and/or tactical voting. It's open to abuse and good luck to anyone who abuses it. For example, if you have relatives in a marginal seat, why not register to vote there? Or swap your vote a la Billy Bragg. Then more politicians might wake up to the fact that the system needs to be replaced.
Is Dan Hodges starting to panic? His rebuttal of why more and more people are saying the maths is favouring Ed M seemed less smooth than his usual explanations for why Ed M will lose.
Just another in a long line with confirmation bias problems. Long ago he's came out and said "Ed is crap and can't be PM", in the full expectation that Ed was crap and would fold under pressure.
Ed has turned out to be less crap than everyone expected and two weeks out it's too late for him to change his mind in public.
Sad thing is he must know there's a big chance he's wrong, go back and read his stuff on the 2012 US elections and polling denial by the republicans, you can translate it directly to this situation.
Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK.
Quentin Letts column in today's daily mail is worth a read if anyone is interested in Broxtowe and Anna Soubry v Nick (P)
"On doorsteps in Nottinghamshire, where I later visited Broxtowe, there was what you could call a woadish worry about Picts or their modern counterparts – the Scots Nats.
I was with Tory candidate Anna Soubry, a fiery old bird who in 2010 took this seat from a ghastly Labour droner called Palmer. He is standing again, even though he pocketed a vast pay-off from the Commons five years ago.
Nearly all the voters I met mentioned SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. They were worried about her."
Sorry Nick while I bow to your on the ground knowledge I still suspect Anna might hold on by a squeak despite the national swing against the Tories. She and I are near contemporaries and I remember her well as the sole FCS representative in a NUS dominated by raging Trots. She is formidable and a great advert why one nation Toryism doesn't have to be wet.
Comments
Be interesting to see if there's tactical voting in Scotland.
His main connection to Wales is he ran a company in Ynys Mon that employed 180 people (mainly from Eastern Europe and the far East) to work in care homes. The company collapsed in mysterious circumstances.
In all honesty, UKIP have a chance in South Wales. But, not with characters like Nathan Gill running the party.
She certainly brightens up the left of centre ticket and I can see plenty of reasons why her association with Ed could help getting lefty voters off their backsides and down to the polls. Maybe it's time for him to stop being so timid
There was a similar operation in 2005 when Norman Lamb and I tolerated someone doing a Norfolk N - Broxtowe Lib/Lab vote swap - I don't know who organised that either. I can't see that it's undemocratic or even illegal, as some suggest: with PR it would be irrelevant, but FPTP pushes people into this sort of thing. There's nothing to stop the a Tory voteswap either, but they're a bit short of people who like them to swap with - UKIP, maybe? This mirrors the likely anti-Con majority in Parliament - the Conservatives don't have enough people who like them better than Labour, outside their actual supporters.
Missed spectacularly by the Dan Hodges punditocracy for whom any Tory obsession - no matter how far removed from people's real world experience - must by definition be good for the Tories.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11555434/Whats-better-than-John-Prescott-punching-someone-Making-Ed-Miliband-a-Sex-God.html
"Mr. Roger, I do think some are quite taken with Sturgeon [south of the border, I mean]. However, a lot are less than thrilled at the prospect of Miliband as PM, reliant upon a party that has a vested interest in division and the ultimate objective of ending the UK"
My feeling is that most don't care too much what the Scots do re independence but they do care about the next five years. And from a left of centre perspective Nicola's presentation is much the most appealing. I think most of us are bored of of the three men in grey suits and if the price she exacts for enlivening the new government is an independant Scotland many years down the line then so be it.
Mr. Fire, bit sleepy, and English does have a slight male bias (though no-one complains if a ship gets called 'she'). I probably would've written 'or woman' if I'd had more caffeine at the time.
Winning's winning whether it's by an inch or a mile. If I run 100m in 12s, I lose to Usain Bolt. If I run 100m in 3 days, I also lose to Bolt. The margin of victory is not relevant.
The argument that the most popular candidate winning is undemocratic is baffling. You can't just add up the totals of non-Conservatives voters and pretend that's an anti-Tory alliance.
What if it's 9k Labour, 8k Con and 5k Lib Dem. The 13k Con/Lib Dems don't get their chaps (or ladies) in. But so what? That's democracy. Get most votes, you win.
PR is the 'all must have prizes' compromise of electoral systems, which also shifts power from the people to the parties.
Owen Smith is the son of Dai Smith, the chair of the Welsh Arts Council. His website describes himself as "brought up in Pontypridd", and he was the producer of the main BBC Wales political programme 'Dragons Eye'.
Do you have to be literally born down the pot noodle mines before you can claim a 'connection' to Wales?
Like SNP?
a) Vote Lab to make sure the left get in.
b) Vote Con so Lab don't get too many and need SNP.
Dislike SNP?
a) Vote Lab to give them their own majority.
b) Vote Con and hope they get enough to block minority Lab, and also hope they don't cut a deal with SNP
c) Vote LibDem, because they'll help with either non-SNP coalition so you don't have to guess.
d) Vote UKIP because - Carswell seemed to think it would help. Stand up for England or something.
Dedicated Tories seem to be assuming Dislike and (b) is a no-brainer, which it probably is if you're a dedicated Tory, but in that case you were probably going to vote for the Tories anyhow.
What's baffling me is that the Tories seem to think they're better spending time sending voters down this rabbit hole of game theory than reminding the voters why they kicked Labour out five years ago.
Loughborough is not a purely engineering university (though it is certainly very good at it!).
Why don't you start a campaign, and we can have a vote in Parliament and then perhaps a referendum on changing the electoral system.
Until then, you should abide by the people's decision to retain FPTP. Otherwise you are saying that, because you don't like the system they chose, you are going to do something different. Unbelievable arrogance.
Could very much go either way, and there's a large sink of ex-Lab/ex-Con votes in UKIP that could drift back to one or both parties, or neither.
Note to Osborne- this kind of scaremongering campaign doesn't wash. It sounds pathetic, it looks desperate, and it won't work. The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric.
It really does hurt knowing your vote never really has much value other than adding to the national party vote total and % share.
But the fact is, FPTP is becoming untenable and more so as we become more fragmented and the "big two" are no longer so dominant. Moreover, as someone of the centre right, I can see how it is shafting the chances of me seeing governments of similar ideology from being formed, possibly ever again. We could be thrust into a lifetime of left or centrist administrations with FPTP. If GE 2015 was being fought under a more proportional system, then Cameron would have a good chance of remaining PM.
Under FPTP, and with UKIP present, he doesn't stand much of a chance and never did.
Backstory - the lady has a long history of 'controversial' remarks, often crossing the line into a (imho) casual antisemitism.
It's the kind of thing the Greens tend to gloss over in their commitment to opposing Israel/supporting Palestinian causes.
eg
http://brightgreenscotland.org/index.php/2012/08/pippa-barolottis-anti-semitic-comments/
http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/70782/beware-woman-who-bids-lead-greens
Not at all helped by her somewhat questionable judgement.
One was questioning whether a particular British Ambassador to Israel could be trusted because he was a Jewish Zionist.
More of a concern now given that the current Deputy Leader of the English Greens seems imho to have similar tendencies.
Matt Wardman
(to be clear - these are my opinions not Mike Smithson's).
"Is Dan Hodges starting to panic? His rebuttal of why more and more people are saying the maths is favouring Ed M seemed less smooth than his usual explanations for why Ed M will lose."
This political cross-dressing (or has Dan stopped the pretence of not being a Tory?) is quite interesting. I read an article by Rod Liddle explaining why he was voting Labour. It was touch and go between Labour and UKIP apparently but Labour won.
But if the Labour Party was the party that Rod Liddle thinks it is then it would certainly lose my vote and I suspect most other Labour well wishers. I wondered whether it might have been a spoof but it wasn't.
Llanelli and Aberconwy would also be of interest.
Oh and Arfon, & both Carmarthenshire seats.
Wales is a bit of a mystery seatwise !
https://twitter.com/jabberworks/status/590978835979571201
Impressively, that's managed to lower my opinion of the deranged republican anti-capitalist clown party a little bit more.
This Lab-SNP warning strategy is designed to drawn down those UKIP voters, to get the Tories over the line. I agree with other posters who've said it's the best one they have.
If Cameron loses, it'll be interesting what comes out in the wash of this ramshackle of a campaign. I bet that Cameron would not support an Osborne leadership bid, not in a million years.
I think Cameron, away from the malign grip of Osborne, will come out as a decent, thoughtful and non partisan character who will stand above politics. Osborne on the other hand will crawl under some moss infested stone where he belongs.
"The British do not like to be scared into voting through empty rhetoric."
You'd better mention that to Ed the next time you see him. "24 hours to save the NHS" "Ethnic cleansing" "Back to the thirties".
They all do it. That and hypocrisy too.
"27 million Rumanians on their way over." - although that one had some factual content.
For info, they are linked to various people associated with Compass in particular, and various other 'progressive' groups - Our Kingdom, NeF, Move Your Money, Climate Rush and so on - all the usual kind of suspects in flatpack tactical left campaigns.
That's not to imply that these groups give support, but top show the background of the bods.
Compass being at the centre makes me wonder whether it should be registered as a Third Party campaign organisation, as should perhaps Unite the Right.
A couple of complaints to the registration body might be interesting.
Val Policella is promoting it:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/591156170150309888
Mr. Antifrank, I shall advert its existence to Mr. T.
YBarddCwsc would probably have me chucked out the Millennium stadium for not being 'pure Welsh'.
I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't some TU funding in there somewhere.
Now you're reaping what thou sows.
What's really frustrating is that the Tories have a decent record to put before voters, and should be talking with enthusiasm and freedom about what a Tory Majority govt might bring in the next sunnier 5 years free of the shackles of coalition.
It's not as if desperation is all they've got. They really frustrate me. What a shower and a shambles.
Of course Leanne Wood is not standing for election as a MP and is only an AM on the basis of the constituency list (losers' list) and not as an elected constituency member.
Her plea last night for more money for Wales is laughable as currently the Welsh Assembly is very incompetent on spending wisely and fritters away money on small bits and pieces that employ people for a short period and brings no lasting improvement to the infrastructure or society. It has been called to account many times over losing vast sums due to fraud. Its record on spending Europen money is even worse.
Ms Wood is to the left of Labour and fighting over the same part of the electorate.
http://tinyurl.com/CrushTheRebeliousScots
"On doorsteps in Nottinghamshire, where I later visited Broxtowe, there was what you could call a woadish worry about Picts or their modern counterparts – the Scots Nats.
I was with Tory candidate Anna Soubry, a fiery old bird who in 2010 took this seat from a ghastly Labour droner called Palmer. He is standing again, even though he pocketed a vast pay-off from the Commons five years ago.
Nearly all the voters I met mentioned SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. They were worried about her."
Making it impossible to patent software is a good thing.
The Office for National Statistics says the government borrowed £7.39bn in March 2015 which is decrease of £0.4bn compared to previous year
David Smith @dsmitheconomics
Borrowing undershoots budget forecast even on these early numbers: £87.3 billion, rather than just over £90 billion:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-finances/march-2015/stb-psf-march-2015.html …
"What's baffling me is that the Tories seem to think they're better spending time sending voters down this rabbit hole of game theory than reminding the voters why they kicked Labour out five years ago. "
As so often you've hit the nail on the head. Their campaign should have written itself. Labour screwed the economy-we fixed it. With a big full stop. I'm sure the reason Ed isn't refuting any of this Scottish stuff is because it suits him perfectly.
No, I'm serious - honestly !
Writers are already struggling, the last thing that's needed is kicking them again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32379991
Imagine if in a few years I write a book that sells a huge number, and people discover my other books. Are you really saying that I shouldn't be making any money on my earlier works if they're more than 14 years old and they've been copied and re-released for free by other people?
This gives Con 284 seats and Con/LD/UKIP/DUP 322 seats.
It gives Lab 257 seats and Lab/SNP/PC/Grn/SDLP 321 seats.
I think this would mean a second election (unless some LDs joined Lab)
For a while, anyway.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/22/voters-still-think-media-are-most-biased-against-u/
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/fg5g6ule1e/InternalResults_150421_media_coverage_Website.pdf
A full-length novel often takes a year (I've spent perhaps two and a half on Kingdom Asunder). Why the hell should other people make money off of my hard work or be able to offer it for free? It's despicable and indefensible, and how Mr. Antifrank thinks it'll encourage writers is beyond me.
Writing would become the preserve of the idle rich.
Mr. Antifrank, it's easy to harm people through severely curtailing copyright. It's rather more difficult to grow the magic money trees needed to throw an income at everyone in the country.
I find it a little depressing that someone has such a negative world view that they would vote to keep someone out rather than vote for their true preference, but they are entitled to do that if they want.
It's the subversion of the constituency principle that's the issue: the bloke in Bedford, for example, is diluting the unfettered right of the people of Twickenham to choose their own representative in Parliament.
Ed has turned out to be less crap than everyone expected and two weeks out it's too late for him to change his mind in public.
Sad thing is he must know there's a big chance he's wrong, go back and read his stuff on the 2012 US elections and polling denial by the republicans, you can translate it directly to this situation.