politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% defi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS
LAB retakes the lead with TNS
LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LD 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1
Comments
-
On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.0
-
Good cartoon by the way.0
-
Nice little cartoon Marf.0
-
Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.DavidL said:On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
0 -
Dave may soon get to be what he wants, an ex-PM0
-
Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
Fair point.TheWatcher said:
Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.DavidL said:On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
Edit. Actually I fear it is worse than you say. They have been uninterested not just disinterested in mass child abuse.*
* Pedant star for the day? Tick.
0 -
FPTPong said:
Norman tebbit lives in norman tebbit's own little world, surrounded by other norman tebbit-type people who think norman tebbit-like thoughts.JosiasJessop said:
What is a 'real man'? Who defines it? What can be unexpected of an unreal man?MikeK said:Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
Tebbit suggests Cameron is unlike politicians of previous generations who were 'real men' ...OUCH!
The problem, at least for norman tebbit, is that his world no longer exists.0 -
How 'real' is Dom Morris? (The Conservative candidate for Exeter describes himself as a "Real person for Parliament")JosiasJessop said:
What is a 'real man'? Who defines it? What can be unexpected of an unreal man?MikeK said:Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
Tebbit suggests Cameron is unlike politicians of previous generations who were 'real men' ...OUCH!0 -
FPT:
It's debateable whether Ed is even as "left-wing" as Angela Merkel.DavidL said:Is Ed left wing? Not really.
He is delusional about the power of the State to do good; he is naïve about how regulation and bureaucracy can make things better; he leaps onto band wagons with almost no thought at all as to the consequences but left wing? I don't really see it.
In the past we had left wing politicians in this country. They had principles, beliefs and a vision of a future society which delusional or not they were clear that they had to work towards. I disagreed with their vision but I don't see anything like that kind of profound thinking on either side of the divide in the managerial era we now live in. Agree with them or not calling Ed left wing is frankly an insult to their memory and beliefs. He is an unconvincing managerial wannabe. He could still do a lot of damage though.0 -
Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...
Labour in mansion tax meltdown
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm
0 -
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
The voters are mean. They never give politicians what they want......adamandcat said:Dave may soon get to be what he wants, an ex-PM
0 -
I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).DavidL said:
Yes but let's talk about TNS.Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
Nice cartoon, Marf!0
-
LordA is bouncy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.0
-
I think TNS will have been damned lucky if they get that close to the result to be honest.Sean_F said:
I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).DavidL said:
Yes but let's talk about TNS.Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
Well any other ideas from Tory HQ, apart from SNP ?0
-
Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!
Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4
Take your pick!0 -
Are you just determined to be a reverse of the resident Labour pessimists?kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
0 -
LOL, "‘independent experts have verified that the party will raise £1.2bn from the tax in its first full year of operation", but they can't say what the tax rate will be or even whether it applies to the whole value or the value over £2m.Scrapheap_as_was said:Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...
Labour in mansion tax meltdown
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm
Staggering to think that people are actually planning to vote for this party.0 -
Telephone polls tend to be bouncy.Speedy said:
LordA is bouncy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
FPT @BenM
» show previous quotes
Look, if Ed is PM on 8th May I will be cheering very loudly at the demise of Cameron, Osborne and the post crash Tory junta that has done and is doing so much damage to the country. If Cameron is PM then I will be properly terrified. Then it really will be 1992 all over again - we'd be months away from a post Tory election victory, Osborne inspired, economic crash.
At least win the election before blaming your future failures on the last lot. ( or the bankers...or anyone else for that matter)0 -
If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
0 -
Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Coalition start point: 360
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (10 losses)
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
Coalition End point: 308.
Notable CON Holds according to their model:
Pudsey, Brighton Kemptown, Thurrock (They have a caveat on UKIP modelling mind), Stockton South, DCT, Rossendale and Darwen.0 -
At one point, TNS were posting regular hefty Labour leads, but I think that was down to their weightings.DavidL said:
I think TNS will have been damned lucky if they get that close to the result to be honest.Sean_F said:
I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).DavidL said:
Yes but let's talk about TNS.Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
FPT: Mr. Fenster, indeed.
FPT: Mr. Jessop, pre-twentieth century? What era are we talking? Ancient Greek? Republican Rome?0 -
Look, if Ed is PM on 8th May I will be cheering very loudly at the demise of Cameron, Osborne and the post crash Tory junta that has done and is doing so much damage to the country.
If Cameron is PM then I will be properly terrified. Then it really will be 1992 all over again - we'd be months away from a post Tory election victory, Osborne inspired, economic crash.
Ok if ED is PM for at least 3 years than I will bet you £1000 that unemployment will be higher by the time he leaves office. You clearly think he is going to be a massive success, so how about it?0 -
The idea that the Tories will benefit from a swing-back to the incumbent government is undermined by the fact that they aren't the incumbent. We have a coalition - so previous models might not apply so much.kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
0 -
Or perhaps one polling company that produces what looks like an outlier will be proved right.Speedy said:
If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
0 -
UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%
Part-ELBOW says 13.2%0 -
I suggest you start to modify your weekly average a little as the election is on a Thursday not a Sunday, so the final week will not be a full week if you start the measurements on a Monday.Sunil_Prasannan said:Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!
Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4
Take your pick!0 -
They used to weight to a combination of GE2010 and Euro2014, but now it's just GE2010.Sean_F said:
At one point, TNS were posting regular hefty Labour leads, but I think that was down to their weightings.DavidL said:
I think TNS will have been damned lucky if they get that close to the result to be honest.Sean_F said:
I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).DavidL said:
Yes but let's talk about TNS.Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
LordA is probably ICM so I'd combine the two into one 3%.Speedy said:
LordA is bouncy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead
0 -
But...but........ What about the 1000 nurses in the English NHS on day 1 or the 10000 was it in Scotland or .....oh you loose track quite easily given the amount of time this has been spentScrapheap_as_was said:Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...
Labour in mansion tax meltdown
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm
Not to worry they can always use the bankers bonus tax....
Oh? I think I detect a slight fiscal flaw here.0 -
LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead
0 -
Nor do I, but any forecast of Tories most seats seems to rely on it, despite how static things are.Speedy said:
If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
I'm kind of stuck with it after years of saying Labour would win; it'd look silly if I changed opinion now.Danny565 said:
Are you just determined to be a reverse of the resident Labour pessimists?kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
On that subject, I have to work the day of the GE, then do the count, then back in to work the next morning, after which I imagine I will pass out - so if I am totally, laughably wrong, an absence in the immediate aftermath will not be down purely to embarrassment.
0 -
Actually an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday. Depends how many polls there will be between Sunday 3rd and Wednesday 6th.Speedy said:
I suggest you start to modify your weekly average a little as the election is on a Thursday not a Sunday, so the final week will not be a full week if you start the measurements on a Monday.Sunil_Prasannan said:Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!
Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4
Take your pick!0 -
I wonder how Tebbit would rate Miligeek in the Real Man stakes..0
-
1000 nurses? Wowsers. Let's remind ourselves that equates to maybe an extra 2 per hospital, or possibly 1 for every 8 GP practices. It's not going to make any noticeable difference.Moses_ said:
But...but........ What about the 1000 nurses in the English NHS on day 1 or the 10000 was it in Scotland or .....oh you loose track quite easily given the amount of time this has been spentScrapheap_as_was said:Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...
Labour in mansion tax meltdown
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm
Not to worry they can always use the bankers bonus tax....
Oh? I think I detect a slight fiscal flaw here.0 -
We already have six this week so far and it's only Tuesday!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Actually an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday. Depends how many polls there will be between Sunday 3rd and Wednesday 6th.Speedy said:
I suggest you start to modify your weekly average a little as the election is on a Thursday not a Sunday, so the final week will not be a full week if you start the measurements on a Monday.Sunil_Prasannan said:Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!
Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4
Take your pick!0 -
As past election analysis points to swingback occurring only on 1/3rd of elections and then only in 1/10th was it enough for a government to win an election, I have to say the odds of swingback saving this government was always low.MikeSmithson said:
The idea that the Tories will benefit from a swing-back to the incumbent government is undermined by the fact that they aren't the incumbent. We have a coalition - so previous models might not apply so much.kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
But every election is unique, past behaviour is no guarantee for future performance, as the small print says on most investments.0 -
*Waves again at FoxInSox"Sunil_Prasannan said:UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%
Part-ELBOW says 13.2%
Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.0 -
Slightly different methodology. Ashcroft only assigns 30% of 2010 LibDem refused/don't know back to the LibDems, as opposed to 50% for Tory and Lab.Ishmael_X said:
LordA is probably ICM so I'd combine the two into one 3%.Speedy said:
LordA is bouncy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead
ICM use 50% for all three parties.0 -
Driving through Harrogate & Knaresborough today , I have never seen so many Yellow diamond signs.
There must be a residue of hard core Lib Dems in that seat.
In comparison hardly any signs seen, of any colour in York Outer & City of York.0 -
Are you suggesting it could quite possibly be a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories :O ?!MikeSmithson said:
LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
No Bermondsey? I make Labour significant favourites for that one.Pulpstar said:Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Coalition start point: 360
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)0 -
Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.
Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.0 -
17% probability according to Elec forecast.Danny565 said:
No Bermondsey? I make Labour significant favourites for that one.Pulpstar said:Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Coalition start point: 360
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)0 -
There are clearly enough Lab-inclined people out there to make it a draw or slight Labour lead if they all showed up, but I suspect ICM's turnout filter will prove to be accurate unless Labour rustle up some "red meat" that can get people on council estates or working on pitiful salaries out to vote.MikeSmithson said:
LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
Their model is wrong for Galloway and UKIP mind.0
-
I've done that a few times and it's very tiresome, I suggest you sleep a little between work and the count if there is time and pack some lunch and coffee, but not too much or else you get all exhausted when the effect of caffeine runs out.kle4 said:
Nor do I, but any forecast of Tories most seats seems to rely on it, despite how static things are.Speedy said:
If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
I'm kind of stuck with it after years of saying Labour would win; it'd look silly if I changed opinion now.Danny565 said:
Are you just determined to be a reverse of the resident Labour pessimists?kle4 said:Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
On that subject, I have to work the day of the GE, then do the count, then back in to work the next morning, after which I imagine I will pass out - so if I am totally, laughably wrong, an absence in the immediate aftermath will not be down purely to embarrassment.
And another thing, lots of small breaks and small talk helps time pass, until the count is finished and the result declared.0 -
That's interesting, don't normally look at table 1 in ICM!MikeSmithson said:
LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
Do not think Harrogate & Knaresborough is worth a punt at 10/1 for the LibDems.
When the Conservatives are 1/33 though.0 -
Given the Scotopocalypse, Labour will need to make about 100 net gains from the Tories to win an overall majority. If the very worst predictions of a Liberal Democrat meltdown come to pass then the Tories will have an overall majority if they don't make net losses to Labour & UKIP.John_N said:Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.
Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.
One of those is a bit more likely than the other, but both are only slightly more likely than people listening to reasoned arguments about global warming on an internet comment thread.0 -
Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.0
-
John_N said:
Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.
Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.
"I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament." !!!!!!
What are the chances of a Tory or a Labour majority then?0 -
For the reasons explained on my post on my site earlier, the current odds of 1/8 on a hung Parliament represent value in my opinion. A pound to a shilling would probably be about right.John_N said:Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.
Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.0 -
Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
It is all about the marginals where LAB will probably do better than CON in maximising its vote. Outside the battlegrounds LAB will perform poorly.Danny565 said:
There are clearly enough Lab-inclined people out there to make it a draw or slight Labour lead if they all showed up, but I suspect ICM's turnout filter will prove to be accurate unless Labour rustle up some "red meat" that can get people on council estates or working on pitiful salaries out to vote.MikeSmithson said:
LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead
0 -
Twas ever thusMikeSmithson said:
It is all about the marginals where LAB will probably do better than CON in maximising its vote. Outside the battlegrounds LAB will perform poorly.Danny565 said:
There are clearly enough Lab-inclined people out there to make it a draw or slight Labour lead if they all showed up, but I suspect ICM's turnout filter will prove to be accurate unless Labour rustle up some "red meat" that can get people on council estates or working on pitiful salaries out to vote.MikeSmithson said:
LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?Sean_F said:Current summary:-
Opinium 4% Con Lead
Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
ICM 2% Con Lead
Survation 1% Con Lead
Com Res 1% Con Lead
Yougov 1% Lab Lead
Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
MORI 2% Lab Lead
TNS 2% Lab Lead
Populus 2% Lab Lead0 -
I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.volcanopete said:Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.
0 -
I don't know that I buy that the Conservatives have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party - isn't the Scottish Tory vote the only unionist vote that is holding up pretty well? (due to starting from a lower base). While they probably should vote tactically for Labour, it's not really campaigning for the SNP if they don't do that.0
-
Remember CON needs to be 11.4% ahead in England before it stops losing seats to LAB. They are miles from the target.OblitusSumMe said:
Given the Scotopocalypse, Labour will need to make about 100 net gains from the Tories to win an overall majority. If the very worst predictions of a Liberal Democrat meltdown come to pass then the Tories will have an overall majority if they don't make net losses to Labour & UKIP.John_N said:Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.
Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.
One of those is a bit more likely than the other, but both are only slightly more likely than people listening to reasoned arguments about global warming on an internet comment thread.
0 -
A number of us thought the probability was more like 95% some months ago, and posted our thoughts on here.John_N said:Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.
Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.
Nothing in the interim has caused me to think that was a poor assessment and I would now put the probability at 98%. You'd need a pretty big betting bank to make meaningful amounts at the current short odds, but if you have the cash I wouldn't discourage you. They are still generous.0 -
0
-
It does look on the cards. But we shall see...HurstLlama said:
*Waves again at FoxInSox"Sunil_Prasannan said:UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%
Part-ELBOW says 13.2%
Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
It will be handy for toasting Alex Salmond as he walks smiling into Downing St to lay down the law to Ed.0 -
Over the past ten years, the number of nurses in the nhs has grown by approximately 1000 every 4 months. It seems reasonable to assume that might continue organically.TheWatcher said:
1000 nurses? Wowsers. Let's remind ourselves that equates to maybe an extra 2 per hospital, or possibly 1 for every 8 GP practices. It's not going to make any noticeable difference.Moses_ said:
But...but........ What about the 1000 nurses in the English NHS on day 1 or the 10000 was it in Scotland or .....oh you loose track quite easily given the amount of time this has been spentScrapheap_as_was said:Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...
Labour in mansion tax meltdown
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm
Not to worry they can always use the bankers bonus tax....
Oh? I think I detect a slight fiscal flaw here.
September 2015. We have 1000 extra nurses. Only 4 months in and we are delivering on our manifesto promises. Great politics.0 -
Todays BJESUS - NO CHANGE unlike ARSE swing to the left
21.4.15 LAB 292 (292) CON 271(271) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 54(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 15 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
0 -
A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.TheWatcher said:
Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.DavidL said:On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
0 -
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
Miligeek?!richardDodd said:I wonder how Tebbit would rate Miligeek in the Real Man stakes..
Stop the search for a new Peter Ustinov! We have a winner!0 -
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
Was he reported or not?FalseFlag said:
A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.TheWatcher said:
Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.DavidL said:On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
0 -
We shall see indeed, Doc, and I am not counting on a win. However, when that poll came out suggesting UKIP on 7% you did comment, so I thought it only polite to return the compliment.foxinsoxuk said:
It does look on the cards. But we shall see...HurstLlama said:
*Waves again at FoxInSox"Sunil_Prasannan said:UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%
Part-ELBOW says 13.2%
Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
It will be handy for toasting Alex Salmond as he walks smiling into Downing St to lay down the law to Ed.
As for Salmond walking into Downing Street to give Miliband his orders, well, if it comes to that we have much bigger problems to worry about. I should add that nothing Miliband is likely to do will affect me too much, it is my son's generation that I fear for.0 -
A nasty little Blairite hyped by the media.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?malcolmg said:
There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
His CV is simple , 9 years at Uni and graduated without a bus ticket. Then greasy pole climber in Labour party. End.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
Formal complaint made obliging investigation. Police did a very good job apparently but The Crown Prosecution Service returned the file to Lancashire Police, saying that the offence was “Trivial” and there would be no prosecution.RobD said:
Was he reported or not?FalseFlag said:
A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.TheWatcher said:
Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.DavidL said:On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
0 -
They actually described him as "lovely", but don't let that ruin your preconceptions.TheWatcher said:
I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.volcanopete said:Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.
0 -
I'm imagining the same will happen here?FalseFlag said:
Formal complaint made obliging investigation. Police did a very good job apparently but The Crown Prosecution Service returned the file to Lancashire Police, saying that the offence was “Trivial” and there would be no prosecution.RobD said:
Was he reported or not?FalseFlag said:
A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.TheWatcher said:
Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.DavidL said:On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
0 -
Rob , I am not sure but common thought was you had to be either an MSP or an MP to be party leader. We may well find out soon.RobD said:
Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?malcolmg said:
There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
The former - MSP or MP - seems to be clear. The unclear bit is the second version you give ...RobD said:
Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?malcolmg said:
There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!
The newspaper which outed this was the Sunday Herald last Sunday, I believe.0 -
Oh.marktheowl said:
They actually described him as "lovely", but don't let that ruin your preconceptions.TheWatcher said:
I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.volcanopete said:Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.
'According to one attendee on LBC this morning “he looked terrified, absolutely terrified. And he wouldn’t actually come off the bus. He was just kind of lingering on the steps, waving sort of tentatively.”'
(There's a recording for the hard of reading)
http://order-order.com/page/2/#_@/dTAmu_lpBr7Paw0 -
Does anyone have the actual wording used in the constitution?Carnyx said:
The former - MSP or MP - seems to be clear. The unclear bit is the second version you give ...RobD said:
Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?malcolmg said:
There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!
The newspaper which outed this was the Sunday Herald last Sunday, I believe.
The latter is quite clear. He'd have to be a member of one of the qualifying places in order to be leader. If he isn't, he is no longer able to be leader. I wonder what the punishment for breaking the rule is?0 -
On topic. How can a good pollster become so crap in a few short days. How depressing!
0 -
I might look for a BOGOF offer; we both may need to drown our sorrows!HurstLlama said:
We shall see indeed, Doc, and I am not counting on a win. However, when that poll came out suggesting UKIP on 7% you did comment, so I thought it only polite to return the compliment.foxinsoxuk said:
It does look on the cards. But we shall see...HurstLlama said:
*Waves again at FoxInSox"Sunil_Prasannan said:UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%
Part-ELBOW says 13.2%
Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
It will be handy for toasting Alex Salmond as he walks smiling into Downing St to lay down the law to Ed.
As for Salmond walking into Downing Street to give Miliband his orders, well, if it comes to that we have much bigger problems to worry about. I should add that nothing Miliband is likely to do will affect me too much, it is my son's generation that I fear for.0 -
My analysis (using Ashcroft polls where available)Pulpstar said:Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Coalition start point: 360
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (10 losses)
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
Coalition End point: 308.
Notable CON Holds according to their model:
Pudsey, Brighton Kemptown, Thurrock (They have a caveat on UKIP modelling mind), Stockton South, DCT, Rossendale and Darwen.
Con - start 307. Gain 10 LDs, lose 2 UKIP, 1 SNP and 47 Lab = 267
LDs - start 57 Lose 10 Con, 9 Lab, and 10 SNP = 28
Right wing Coalition 295
Lab - start 258. Gain 9 LDs and 47 Con. Lose 40 SNP = 274
SNP - start 6. Gain 1 Con, 40 Lab, 10 LD = 57
Left wing coalition 331 plus PC and Green
10 of the potential Lab gains from Con are on majorities of less than 1000. If 500 people in those 10 constituencies can be persuaded to switch from Lab to Con, then the figures are 305 versus 321. The 4.3 million UKIP voters are irrelevant to this. Funny old system!0 -
Well another one said he was lovely, http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/19/ed-miliband-makes-bride-to-bes-day-as-hen-party-mobs-labour-busTheWatcher said:
Oh.marktheowl said:
They actually described him as "lovely", but don't let that ruin your preconceptions.TheWatcher said:
I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.volcanopete said:Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.
'According to one attendee on LBC this morning “he looked terrified, absolutely terrified. And he wouldn’t actually come off the bus. He was just kind of lingering on the steps, waving sort of tentatively.”'
(There's a recording for the hard of reading)
http://order-order.com/page/2/#_@/dTAmu_lpBr7Paw
It could easily be both of course, that initially the commotion caused tentativity, but they were happy with the selfie and high fives.
0 -
I'm told the LibDem candidate arrived late at the Stafford hustings. He lives in Surrey. When the topic turned to traffic congestion in Stafford he said he understood the problems because he used to live in Truro, which, apparently, is similar to Stafford.0
-
Latest poll.
The labour /SNP strategy going well I see ;-)0 -
Murphy is arguably more of a hindrance to Labour in Scotland than Ed is. On yesterday's YouGov poll ratings, Murphy has a slightly better net rating than Ed, BUT that's only because Murphy does respectably with Tory voters. Among 2010 Labour voters (i.e. the people Labour desperately need to win back), Ed outpolls Murphy.FalseFlag said:
A nasty little Blairite hyped by the media.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!0 -
Part of the problem is that nobody seems to have a copy (as far as I know) - presumably not least because there is no such organization as Scottish Labour that could have a constitution. Just the local members of Labour.RobD said:
Does anyone have the actual wording used in the constitution?Carnyx said:
The former - MSP or MP - seems to be clear. The unclear bit is the second version you give ...RobD said:
Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?malcolmg said:
There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.TheWatcher said:
He should be updating his CV.malcolmg said:
Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.Itwasrigged said:
Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.calum said:Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:
"John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.
The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”
The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!
The newspaper which outed this was the Sunday Herald last Sunday, I believe.
The latter is quite clear. He'd have to be a member of one of the qualifying places in order to be leader. If he isn't, he is no longer able to be leader. I wonder what the punishment for breaking the rule is?
The Labour rule book is not very helpful ...
"7. Election of the Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
A. The Leader of the Scottish Labour Party shall be
elected according to the procedural rules set out
by the Scottish Executive Committee."
page 17 on http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Rule-Book-2013.pdf
In any case, if it is merely a procedural/administrative issue, Mr M can easily change the rules, should he so wish [edit: subject to committee agreement]. That seems to be what happened when suddenly SLAB no longer published the actual numbers voting in the election which saw Mr Murphy appointed.
0 -
I heard somewhere that Katie Hopkins will leave the UK if Labour get into power.
Who's not going to vote Labour now? Anyone?0 -
I don't think Labour will pick up more than 40 seats from the Conservatives unless they perform very much better than expected on the night.Barnesian said:
My analysis (using Ashcroft polls where available)Pulpstar said:Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:
Coalition start point: 360
Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:
Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:
LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.
Bradford East
Brent Central
Manchester, Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Burnley
Cardiff Central
Hornsey and Wood Green
Leeds North West
Bristol West
(10 losses to Lab)
Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (10 losses)
Con losses to Lab.
6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)
Coalition End point: 308.
Notable CON Holds according to their model:
Pudsey, Brighton Kemptown, Thurrock (They have a caveat on UKIP modelling mind), Stockton South, DCT, Rossendale and Darwen.
Con - start 307. Gain 10 LDs, lose 2 UKIP, 1 SNP and 47 Lab = 267
LDs - start 57 Lose 10 Con, 9 Lab, and 10 SNP = 28
Right wing Coalition 295
Lab - start 258. Gain 9 LDs and 47 Con. Lose 40 SNP = 274
SNP - start 6. Gain 1 Con, 40 Lab, 10 LD = 57
Left wing coalition 331 plus PC and Green
10 of the potential Lab gains from Con are on majorities of less than 1000. If 500 people in those 10 constituencies can be persuaded to switch from Lab to Con, then the figures are 305 versus 321. The 4.3 million UKIP voters are irrelevant to this. Funny old system!0
