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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight
Via @GoodwinMJ This looks like the closing theme of the Tory campaign. It could work pic.twitter.com/uLd6aYyg0U
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Having grown up in Tory heartlands though, I cannot deny I am more instinctively wary of Labour and favourable to the Tories, though I'd like to think all the times I have defended Ed and Labour mean I am making an attempt at objectivity.
They tried this line before in 2010 and then went into The Coalition.
The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.
More power to Lammy's elbow.
It will probably be the SNP.
And perhaps 100.000s of voters rocking up to the polling station to be told that they are not registered
Also, wtf is Lammy playing at?
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
On the other hand, plenty of people in England seem to like the SNP positions, enough to overcome those Lab voters so fearful of too much SNP influence they would actually switch to the Tories?
He's not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.
Go to bed with Ed on May 7th
Wake up at some bizarre orgy featuring Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Alex Salmond, Leanne Wood (yes please!) and Ed.
That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).
This was the SPIN spread before GE2010. So SPIN always overestimates Tory seats, hugely underestimates Labour. Not surprising since most punters with cash are Tories.
Same old story - Tories have more money than sense !
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
"That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon"
Good grief-there really is someone who believes Salmond might not gain Gordon from the Lib Dems. Well I never!
Do folk genuinely think that UKIP will win only 1 seat? Bad night if so.
Mr Murphy, for example, has (according to the Sunday Herald) been taking legal advice as to whether he can stay as leader of SLAB even if he loses his MP or MSP status (which is a precondition to be elected, but whether to remain ...) Give them time, even for virtual candidates. There are still 2 and a bit weeks to go. That article, in the Daily Mirror money pages, which I highlighted on last thread, is remarkable for its tone, and may well be a straw in the wind.
Value bet: Labour landslide in Corby.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/590263940061343744
SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.
@JPJ2 I expect Salmond to win Gordon but I think the LDs will get a substantial tactical vote there.
If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
Tories aren't really in bed with SNP, just enthusiastic voyeurs
Good luck with the book.
Also, I thought 'How to kill with joy' was the Tory manifesto *easy joke*
http://history1800s.about.com/od/colonialwars/a/kabul1842.htm
SLAB cannot take revenge on Ed M if they have ceased to be...
Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
No.
That's one way of getting SNP support over 50%. It's a bloodbath for SLAB.
33p an hour.
A sweatshop worker would turn up their nose.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....
UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).
Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.
Tory +2
Lab +1
Lab +2
the blues have it, the blues have it. Unlock the herd.
GE2010 was often called a good election to lose. Maybe GE2015 is more so.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
But they still need to hammer home some positive messages to get the more apathetic Labour voters out.
Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.
Nice to see we agree.
OTOH, having Lab ahead keeps EICIPM real, which helps with Operation DeKipper.
ARF!
Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.
I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.
I would give anything to see her stop Trident !
Rather than deal with the SNP, Labour will surely let a Con Minority Govt take office.
Remember, this is a Con Minority Govt that is going to embark on its favourite hobby, tearing itself to bits over Europe. Not hard to see that it will end in tears.
And Labour will sort out its leader problem. After first Brown and then Miliband, they now need to get an authentic, popular leader.
The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...
Think that was more of a Coalition effort. Maybe SNP + Labour?
;-)
http://iceagenow.info/2015/04/global-warming-rally-disrupted-snow/