politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight
Via @GoodwinMJ This looks like the closing theme of the Tory campaign. It could work pic.twitter.com/uLd6aYyg0U
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Good of David Lammy to help the SNP/Lab story by contradicting Ed M and saying Lab can do business with them I gather?0
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David Lammy is awesome0
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Mike, no point teaching the Tories electoral science. They blew it last time - it was an open goal ! They simply do not know how to campaign.0
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FPT:
I have never voted Tory before is the main reason. And I've always lived in safe Tory seats, so I think I've had the opportunity to do so without tactical considerations to convince me otherwise.surbiton said:
Why do you pretend you are not Tory ?kle4 said:
Well for one they didn't geries.Flightpath said:
They have run away from government. They have rubbished their own govt all along - even though they got their referendum on PR. After all the pomposity over expenses their own leading lights made themselves laughing stocks. They will never form an opposition in their own right; they plainly cannot hack coalition.kle4 said:
m to want to do so.Flightpath said:
If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.kle4 said:
That would be the voters.surbiton said:One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.
Are you guys being serious ?
The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.
The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.
In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.
As for coalition mark 2 - that would depend on numbers. But the point of a political party is to be in government. If it is not in the LDs interest to be in government then why bother?
Having grown up in Tory heartlands though, I cannot deny I am more instinctively wary of Labour and favourable to the Tories, though I'd like to think all the times I have defended Ed and Labour mean I am making an attempt at objectivity.0 -
My wife has just a Yougov poll. Can pretty much guarantee the SNP didn't do too well in that one.0
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Tories clearly being ironic.
They tried this line before in 2010 and then went into The Coalition.0 -
I have never experienced this. I post on last thread that the next poll will show the SNP above the YES 45% and lo and behold within seconds it appears courtesy of YouGov.
The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.
More power to Lammy's elbow.0 -
I think if there are going to be game changers (and the tories probably need more than 1)
It will probably be the SNP.
And perhaps 100.000s of voters rocking up to the polling station to be told that they are not registered0 -
It should be noted that the fieldwork was completed before Ruth Davidson's devastating tweet. So the true position is probably more like Lab 22 Con 20.
Also, wtf is Lammy playing at?0 -
SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.0 -
I think it's the best hope they've got of making things work. The overall messaging on the economy is the positive angle, but the Ed M is terrible stuff didn't work at all, whereas this has more potential.
On the other hand, plenty of people in England seem to like the SNP positions, enough to overcome those Lab voters so fearful of too much SNP influence they would actually switch to the Tories?0 -
Have you not seen him on Mastermind.Tissue_Price said:It should be noted that the fieldwork was completed before Ruth Davidson's devastating tweet. So the true position is probably more like Lab 22 Con 20.
Also, wtf is Lammy playing at?
He's not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.0 -
Only 49% get it sorted Nicola.0
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Perhaps the tories should go with the strategy
Go to bed with Ed on May 7th
Wake up at some bizarre orgy featuring Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Alex Salmond, Leanne Wood (yes please!) and Ed.0 -
I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.foxinsoxuk said:SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).0 -
Two flaws: there is little sign of that in constituency polling and secondly it seems that Tories do not vote tactically while LDs do...Tissue_Price said:
I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.foxinsoxuk said:SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).0 -
This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.0
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"The general election will take place on May 6 and David Cameron’s Conservative Party is expected to win 327 seats versus the 223 for the present Labour Party. Sporting Index further commented that its ‘swingometer’ based on an election coverage gadget of the same name used by the BBC, is awarding 100 points if the Conservative’s win power, zero points if Labour return as the majority and 50 for a hung Parliament, currently stands at 74."
This was the SPIN spread before GE2010. So SPIN always overestimates Tory seats, hugely underestimates Labour. Not surprising since most punters with cash are Tories.
Same old story - Tories have more money than sense !0 -
SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
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Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.0 -
Jim Muprhy needs to bill the tax payer for some more Irn-Bru and get out there on his orange soda crate...0
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Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf0 -
That would be the Jacobian wing of the SNP...OblitusSumMe said:This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.
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Today's Ashcroft poll in Edinburgh South showed a drop in the LD share from 34% to 8%.0
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Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR
— Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015
Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.0 -
Tissue Price
"That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon"
Good grief-there really is someone who believes Salmond might not gain Gordon from the Lib Dems. Well I never!0 -
FPT
On these numbers its a toss up.Tykejohnno said:surbiton said:
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
surbiton • Posts: 4,477
April 19 • edited April 19
This is what I think will happen:
Con 295
Lab 265
SNP 50
LD 18
PC 3
UKIP 1
Cameron according to you.
Do folk genuinely think that UKIP will win only 1 seat? Bad night if so.
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I still cannot work out if there is genuine confidence behind such moves or not, or if it is purely hope based. I think they're wrong either way, but given they are only in with a chance now because of the SLAB collapse no one predicted, how they hell did they think they could win before that happened?surbiton said:"The general election will take place on May 6 and David Cameron’s Conservative Party is expected to win 327 seats versus the 223 for the present Labour Party. Sporting Index further commented that its ‘swingometer’ based on an election coverage gadget of the same name used by the BBC, is awarding 100 points if the Conservative’s win power, zero points if Labour return as the majority and 50 for a hung Parliament, currently stands at 74."
This was the SPIN spread before GE2010. So SPIN always overestimates Tory seats, hugely underestimates Labour. Not surprising since most punters with cash are Tories.
Same old story - Tories have more money than sense !0 -
Well, they are (a) partly to blame, one assumes, and (b) hardly likely to hold much power in the party.YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
Mr Murphy, for example, has (according to the Sunday Herald) been taking legal advice as to whether he can stay as leader of SLAB even if he loses his MP or MSP status (which is a precondition to be elected, but whether to remain ...)
Give them time, even for virtual candidates. There are still 2 and a bit weeks to go. That article, in the Daily Mirror money pages, which I highlighted on last thread, is remarkable for its tone, and may well be a straw in the wind.OblitusSumMe said:This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.
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LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through.chestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
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Erm... glad to see Nick Robinson healthyish, but not sure he sounds healthy enough to be back at work...0
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What are you smoking ? SLD = 1 = Orkney !Tissue_Price said:
I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.foxinsoxuk said:SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).0 -
I wonder how many ethnically Scottish voters there are in English marginals? Regardless of their views on the SNP my experience (small sample size) is that they are getting incredibly pissed off at a Tory message that says if Scots don't vote the right way their representatives should be treated as Parliamentary lepers.
Value bet: Labour landslide in Corby.0 -
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BBC News is slaughtering the SNP with lots of negative numbers, but it's difficult to look past Peston's Austin Powers impression and Nick Robinson's sore throat.0
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Picking straws from right at the bottom of the pile now. When will Lyndon deliver the bombshell.....Vote Labour get an immigrant for your neighbour ?GIN1138 said:
LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through.chestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf0 -
They should have fielded a Berwick reunification candidate at the very least.OblitusSumMe said:This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.
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Corby ?OblitusSumMe said:This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.
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Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.
SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.0 -
I reckon 2 - Jo Swinson was well placed in Ashcroft as well as in her own specially-designed poll.surbiton said:
What are you smoking ? SLD = 1 = Orkney !Tissue_Price said:
I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.foxinsoxuk said:SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).
@JPJ2 I expect Salmond to win Gordon but I think the LDs will get a substantial tactical vote there.0 -
I would rate that chance as better than evens. I think the two hardest seats for the SNP to win will be the oil islands and one of the possible Tory border seats. Even though we've had fair warning the scale of the Labour rout will still shock.SeanT said:Given the relative efficiency of the Scots Tory vote (Borders, etc) there has to be a chance now that they will emerge with as many Scottish seats as Labour, or more.
Oh, how we sat down and wept on the banks of the Clyde.
LOL.0 -
No. Some Tories are getting high on their own supply. They don't accept that if UKIP win 13%, these votes are bound to show up somewhere.FormerToryOrange said:FPT
On these numbers its a toss up.Tykejohnno said:surbiton said:
Who is favourite to be PM Now ?
surbiton • Posts: 4,477
April 19 • edited April 19
This is what I think will happen:
Con 295
Lab 265
SNP 50
LD 18
PC 3
UKIP 1
Cameron according to you.
Do folk genuinely think that UKIP will win only 1 seat? Bad night if so.
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I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.0
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I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.Danny565 said:
Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
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agree - SNP are covertly pushing their support for Labour for the benefit of the tories.SMukesh said:Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.
SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.
Tories aren't really in bed with SNP, just enthusiastic voyeurs0 -
Nicola, the poll 8 days back was exactly the same ! SNP was 49 [ which is greater than 45 ] as they are in this one.scotslass said:I have never experienced this. I post on last thread that the next poll will show the SNP above the YES 45% and lo and behold within seconds it appears courtesy of YouGov.
The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.
More power to Lammy's elbow.0 -
Evening Al.compouter2 said:
Picking straws from right at the bottom of the pile now. When will Lyndon deliver the bombshell.....Vote Labour get an immigrant for your neighbour ?GIN1138 said:
LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through.chestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
Good luck with the book.0 -
Getting back into government, even severely curtailed by losses to the SNP, will heal or at least temper many wounds I suspect. For a time. I'd actually be interested to see how Ed manages vs the SNP - their public position on him certainly underestimates him.YBarddCwsc said:
I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.Danny565 said:
Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
Also, I thought 'How to kill with joy' was the Tory manifesto *easy joke*0 -
There may not be a Dr William Brydon to tell the tale of SLAB:YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
http://history1800s.about.com/od/colonialwars/a/kabul1842.htm
SLAB cannot take revenge on Ed M if they have ceased to be...0 -
MikeK said:
Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR
— Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015
Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
No.0 -
Is that Labour's desperate line?SMukesh said:Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.
SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.
That's one way of getting SNP support over 50%. It's a bloodbath for SLAB.0 -
Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britainchestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
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GE 2020?YBarddCwsc said:
I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.Danny565 said:
Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
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0
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SNP stalling!surbiton said:
Nicola, the poll 8 days back was exactly the same ! SNP was 49 [ which is greater than 45 ] as they are in this one.scotslass said:I have never experienced this. I post on last thread that the next poll will show the SNP above the YES 45% and lo and behold within seconds it appears courtesy of YouGov.
The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.
More power to Lammy's elbow.0 -
Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.Danny565 said:
Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.0 -
Watching what the SNP is doing to SLAB is nothing like watching any kind of sexual act that I could possibly watch.Greenwich_Floater said:
agree - SNP are covertly pushing their support for Labour for the benefit of the tories.SMukesh said:Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.
SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.
Tories aren't really in bed with SNP, just enthusiastic voyeurs0 -
Vox pop in Carlisle: "the SNP have some good policies and they might help us all out".0
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lol! Vote labour, get a Haggis for christmas dinnercompouter2 said:
Picking straws from right at the bottom of the pile now. When will Lyndon deliver the bombshell.....Vote Labour get an immigrant for your neighbour ?GIN1138 said:
LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through.chestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf0 -
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....0 -
Worcester, in 1651DavidL said:I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.
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Stunning you gov tonight.0
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No.saddened said:MikeK said:Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR
— Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015
Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).
Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.0 -
Tory +4
Tory +2
Lab +1
Lab +2
the blues have it, the blues have it. Unlock the herd.0 -
So they did. I'm afraid my reference to York comes from that film.DavidL said:I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.
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Delurking for a while .. thanks to all for some interesting, thought-provoking reads.
GE2010 was often called a good election to lose. Maybe GE2015 is more so.0 -
Sun Politics @SunPolitics ·
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
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Oh its no problem, we've already transitioned into 'Lab lead of x really means probably a Tory lead in actuality' territory. Could be true I guess, although a bit much to rely on.compouter2 said:And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....0 -
You Gov still in stasis.....0
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How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?0
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Against my expectations, Labour seem like they're still just about still standing.
But they still need to hammer home some positive messages to get the more apathetic Labour voters out.0 -
UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).KentRising said:
No.saddened said:MikeK said:Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR
— Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015
Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.
Nice to see we agree.0 -
They asked the Guardian if they wanted to swap pollsterscompouter2 said:And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....
OTOH, having Lab ahead keeps EICIPM real, which helps with Operation DeKipper.0 -
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/590148438320410624DavidL said:How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?
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Well at this rate some pollsters are going to have egg on their face...0
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Pedantry alert!DennisBets said:
Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britainchestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.
I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.0 -
To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.
I would give anything to see her stop Trident !0 -
I just don’t think that is a correct reading of the situation.kle4 said:
Getting back into government, even severely curtailed by losses to the SNP, will heal or at least temper many wounds I suspect. For a time.YBarddCwsc said:
I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.Danny565 said:
Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?YBarddCwsc said:SLAB has been killed.
The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?
I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
Rather than deal with the SNP, Labour will surely let a Con Minority Govt take office.
Remember, this is a Con Minority Govt that is going to embark on its favourite hobby, tearing itself to bits over Europe. Not hard to see that it will end in tears.
And Labour will sort out its leader problem. After first Brown and then Miliband, they now need to get an authentic, popular leader.0 -
The Scottish bits of Corby town do not vote Tory, the posh Northants villages around it do. Corby will remain marginal. Possible Tory gain if low registration in Corby town affects it, or ethnic Scots abandon Labour.oldpolitics said:I wonder how many ethnically Scottish voters there are in English marginals? Regardless of their views on the SNP my experience (small sample size) is that they are getting incredibly pissed off at a Tory message that says if Scots don't vote the right way their representatives should be treated as Parliamentary lepers.
Value bet: Labour landslide in Corby.
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This loss deposits bet is something that commented on a couple of days ago.foxinsoxuk said:SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.
In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.
But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...0 -
Calm down dear, you're the only one who gets moist at the random output from yougov. You'll do yourself a mischief.compouter2 said:And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....0 -
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZGIN1138 said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
Delighted to see that the SNP are ahead in my brother's constituency of Edinburgh South, but there is a warning there for the SNP in terms of Unionist tactical voting. Ed S was always going to be one of the most difficult seats, given the highest proportion of voters born in England of any Scottish constituency. SNP in the high 40's given 34.7% voting yes there in the referendum consistent with the SNP at 37%. Still Labour would have to squeeze another 3-4% of the remaining 29% left to win, which is over 10% of the residual vote. Reluctant to put this in the SNP column as I was sure Fred Mackintosh was going to gain this for the Lib Dems in 2010, so I'm still going with 55 SNP seats myself - Ed South, Orkney & Shetland, Dumfries & Galloway and BRS resisting the SNP landslide.0
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Well, at the current rate of progress, the SNP will be taking over from Labour south of the border too.surbiton said:To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.
I would give anything to see her stop Trident !0 -
The one thing that has got me even slightly positive about the chance of a Labour government is that the SNP would simply not let the Labour frontbench pass the spending cuts that they're so obsessed with.surbiton said:To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.
I would give anything to see her stop Trident !0 -
JohnLilburne said:
Worcester, in 1651DavidL said:I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.
Think that was more of a Coalition effort. Maybe SNP + Labour?0 -
Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?compouter2 said:And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....
;-)
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I thought the bugger was dead after his wife ran off with.......................compouter2 said:0 -
Off topic: You couldn't make this story up if you tried!
http://iceagenow.info/2015/04/global-warming-rally-disrupted-snow/0 -
Exactly! Day after day, article after article with personal attacks on Miliband, and then every night, oh yes, that poll we keep paying for, erm, well it says Labour is in front. No wonder Murdoch is going mucking fentle.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/590148438320410624DavidL said:How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?
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I think MaxPB said he has done half a dozen yougov VIs in the past fortnight. It isn't a poll, it's a focus group.MarqueeMark said:You Gov still in stasis.....
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Labour should be attacking the SNP much more directly. They bemoan how unequal Scotland is and then do nothing about it in government instead defending middle class priviledges like free education and care for the elderly whilst freezing council tax. The vote SNP get Tory stuff plainly isn't working.0
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Thats right, all the people who lost their jobs and homes were actually well pleased at how much the economy was forecast to improve and thank god! They really felt the benefit just like everyone today is rolling in it now Dave's created 2 million new jobs at amazon on 6 quid an hourGreenwich_Floater said:
Pedantry alert!DennisBets said:
Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britainchestnut said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.
I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.0 -
Fantastic. Basils back is buggered though.Tykejohnno said:
Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?compouter2 said:And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.
Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.
The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....
;-)0
