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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight

Via @GoodwinMJ This looks like the closing theme of the Tory campaign. It could work pic.twitter.com/uLd6aYyg0U

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Good of David Lammy to help the SNP/Lab story by contradicting Ed M and saying Lab can do business with them I gather?
  • David Lammy is awesome
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Mike, no point teaching the Tories electoral science. They blew it last time - it was an open goal ! They simply do not know how to campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    FPT:
    surbiton said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    One of the assumptions made here all the time needs to be challenged. This is that the rump LD will join with the Tories in forming a coalition.

    Are you guys being serious ?

    The reason why the LDs are in this mess - forty years work undone - is because of this nasty coalition.

    The Liberals will not go into coalition with no one - not Tory, not Labour. They will go into opposition and rely of people's short term memory.

    In 2020, they will again be the Protest Party.

    That would be the voters.
    If they are not going to ever be in government nor opposition, then what is their point? Why bother tl recover? They are a nothing party. Or rather an everything party - everything to all men.
    m to want to do so.
    They have run away from government. They have rubbished their own govt all along - even though they got their referendum on PR. After all the pomposity over expenses their own leading lights made themselves laughing stocks. They will never form an opposition in their own right; they plainly cannot hack coalition.
    As for coalition mark 2 - that would depend on numbers. But the point of a political party is to be in government. If it is not in the LDs interest to be in government then why bother?
    Well for one they didn't geries.
    Why do you pretend you are not Tory ?
    I have never voted Tory before is the main reason. And I've always lived in safe Tory seats, so I think I've had the opportunity to do so without tactical considerations to convince me otherwise.

    Having grown up in Tory heartlands though, I cannot deny I am more instinctively wary of Labour and favourable to the Tories, though I'd like to think all the times I have defended Ed and Labour mean I am making an attempt at objectivity.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    My wife has just a Yougov poll. Can pretty much guarantee the SNP didn't do too well in that one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    edited April 2015
    Tories clearly being ironic.

    They tried this line before in 2010 and then went into The Coalition.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    I have never experienced this. I post on last thread that the next poll will show the SNP above the YES 45% and lo and behold within seconds it appears courtesy of YouGov.

    The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.

    More power to Lammy's elbow.
  • I think if there are going to be game changers (and the tories probably need more than 1)

    It will probably be the SNP.

    And perhaps 100.000s of voters rocking up to the polling station to be told that they are not registered
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    It should be noted that the fieldwork was completed before Ruth Davidson's devastating tweet. So the true position is probably more like Lab 22 Con 20.

    Also, wtf is Lammy playing at?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    I think it's the best hope they've got of making things work. The overall messaging on the economy is the positive angle, but the Ed M is terrible stuff didn't work at all, whereas this has more potential.

    On the other hand, plenty of people in England seem to like the SNP positions, enough to overcome those Lab voters so fearful of too much SNP influence they would actually switch to the Tories?
  • It should be noted that the fieldwork was completed before Ruth Davidson's devastating tweet. So the true position is probably more like Lab 22 Con 20.

    Also, wtf is Lammy playing at?

    Have you not seen him on Mastermind.

    He's not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Only 49% get it sorted Nicola.
  • Perhaps the tories should go with the strategy

    Go to bed with Ed on May 7th
    Wake up at some bizarre orgy featuring Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Alex Salmond, Leanne Wood (yes please!) and Ed.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.

    That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.

    That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).
    Two flaws: there is little sign of that in constituency polling and secondly it seems that Tories do not vote tactically while LDs do...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543
    surbiton said:

    Mike, no point teaching the Tories electoral science. They blew it last time - it was an open goal ! They simply do not know how to campaign.

    Unlike SLAB.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "The general election will take place on May 6 and David Cameron’s Conservative Party is expected to win 327 seats versus the 223 for the present Labour Party. Sporting Index further commented that its ‘swingometer’ based on an election coverage gadget of the same name used by the BBC, is awarding 100 points if the Conservative’s win power, zero points if Labour return as the majority and 50 for a hung Parliament, currently stands at 74."

    This was the SPIN spread before GE2010. So SPIN always overestimates Tory seats, hugely underestimates Labour. Not surprising since most punters with cash are Tories.

    Same old story - Tories have more money than sense !
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Jim Muprhy needs to bill the tax payer for some more Irn-Bru and get out there on his orange soda crate...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.

    That would be the Jacobian wing of the SNP...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Today's Ashcroft poll in Edinburgh South showed a drop in the LD share from 34% to 8%.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2015

    Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR

    — Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015

    Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Tissue Price

    "That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon"

    Good grief-there really is someone who believes Salmond might not gain Gordon from the Lib Dems. Well I never!
  • FPT

    surbiton said:



    Who is favourite to be PM Now ?


    surbiton • Posts: 4,477

    April 19 • edited April 19

    This is what I think will happen:

    Con 295
    Lab 265
    SNP 50
    LD 18
    PC 3
    UKIP 1


    Cameron according to you.
    On these numbers its a toss up.

    Do folk genuinely think that UKIP will win only 1 seat? Bad night if so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    surbiton said:

    "The general election will take place on May 6 and David Cameron’s Conservative Party is expected to win 327 seats versus the 223 for the present Labour Party. Sporting Index further commented that its ‘swingometer’ based on an election coverage gadget of the same name used by the BBC, is awarding 100 points if the Conservative’s win power, zero points if Labour return as the majority and 50 for a hung Parliament, currently stands at 74."

    This was the SPIN spread before GE2010. So SPIN always overestimates Tory seats, hugely underestimates Labour. Not surprising since most punters with cash are Tories.

    Same old story - Tories have more money than sense !

    I still cannot work out if there is genuine confidence behind such moves or not, or if it is purely hope based. I think they're wrong either way, but given they are only in with a chance now because of the SLAB collapse no one predicted, how they hell did they think they could win before that happened?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Well, they are (a) partly to blame, one assumes, and (b) hardly likely to hold much power in the party.

    Mr Murphy, for example, has (according to the Sunday Herald) been taking legal advice as to whether he can stay as leader of SLAB even if he loses his MP or MSP status (which is a precondition to be elected, but whether to remain ...)

    This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.

    Give them time, even for virtual candidates. There are still 2 and a bit weeks to go. That article, in the Daily Mirror money pages, which I highlighted on last thread, is remarkable for its tone, and may well be a straw in the wind.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through. ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Erm... glad to see Nick Robinson healthyish, but not sure he sounds healthy enough to be back at work...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.

    That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).
    What are you smoking ? SLD = 1 = Orkney !
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    I wonder how many ethnically Scottish voters there are in English marginals? Regardless of their views on the SNP my experience (small sample size) is that they are getting incredibly pissed off at a Tory message that says if Scots don't vote the right way their representatives should be treated as Parliamentary lepers.

    Value bet: Labour landslide in Corby.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BBC News is slaughtering the SNP with lots of negative numbers, but it's difficult to look past Peston's Austin Powers impression and Nick Robinson's sore throat.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through. ;)
    Picking straws from right at the bottom of the pile now. When will Lyndon deliver the bombshell.....Vote Labour get an immigrant for your neighbour ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.

    They should have fielded a Berwick reunification candidate at the very least.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    This general election would be so much more exciting if the SNP were fielding candidates as far south as York.

    Corby ?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.

    SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    surbiton said:

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    I think the LD's are actually best placed to receive tactical votes as Con <--> Lab is just too much of a jump for many people.

    That might help the LDs to get close or even hold on in Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Gordon. The Highland seats are probably too far gone (though Caithness remains gloriously unsullied by Ashcroft's forensic minions).
    What are you smoking ? SLD = 1 = Orkney !
    I reckon 2 - Jo Swinson was well placed in Ashcroft as well as in her own specially-designed poll.

    @JPJ2 I expect Salmond to win Gordon but I think the LDs will get a substantial tactical vote there.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Given the relative efficiency of the Scots Tory vote (Borders, etc) there has to be a chance now that they will emerge with as many Scottish seats as Labour, or more.

    Oh, how we sat down and wept on the banks of the Clyde.

    LOL.

    I would rate that chance as better than evens. I think the two hardest seats for the SNP to win will be the oil islands and one of the possible Tory border seats. Even though we've had fair warning the scale of the Labour rout will still shock.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,543

    FPT

    surbiton said:



    Who is favourite to be PM Now ?


    surbiton • Posts: 4,477

    April 19 • edited April 19

    This is what I think will happen:

    Con 295
    Lab 265
    SNP 50
    LD 18
    PC 3
    UKIP 1


    Cameron according to you.
    On these numbers its a toss up.

    Do folk genuinely think that UKIP will win only 1 seat? Bad night if so.
    No. Some Tories are getting high on their own supply. They don't accept that if UKIP win 13%, these votes are bound to show up somewhere.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.

    If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    chestnut said:

    BBC News is slaughtering the SNP with lots of negative numbers, but it's difficult to look past Peston's Austin Powers impression and Nick Robinson's sore throat.

    Nick is being treated for lung cancer. It's great to see him getting back to work.

  • SMukesh said:

    Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.

    SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.

    agree - SNP are covertly pushing their support for Labour for the benefit of the tories.
    Tories aren't really in bed with SNP, just enthusiastic voyeurs
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    scotslass said:

    I have never experienced this. I post on last thread that the next poll will show the SNP above the YES 45% and lo and behold within seconds it appears courtesy of YouGov.

    The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.

    More power to Lammy's elbow.

    Nicola, the poll 8 days back was exactly the same ! SNP was 49 [ which is greater than 45 ] as they are in this one.
  • GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through. ;)
    Picking straws from right at the bottom of the pile now. When will Lyndon deliver the bombshell.....Vote Labour get an immigrant for your neighbour ?
    Evening Al.

    Good luck with the book.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    edited April 2015

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.

    If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
    Getting back into government, even severely curtailed by losses to the SNP, will heal or at least temper many wounds I suspect. For a time. I'd actually be interested to see how Ed manages vs the SNP - their public position on him certainly underestimates him.

    Also, I thought 'How to kill with joy' was the Tory manifesto *easy joke*
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    There may not be a Dr William Brydon to tell the tale of SLAB:

    http://history1800s.about.com/od/colonialwars/a/kabul1842.htm

    SLAB cannot take revenge on Ed M if they have ceased to be...
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR

    — Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015

    Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.

    No.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    SMukesh said:

    Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.

    SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.

    Is that Labour's desperate line?

    That's one way of getting SNP support over 50%. It's a bloodbath for SLAB.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britain
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.

    If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
    GE 2020?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    33p an hour.

    A sweatshop worker would turn up their nose.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    surbiton said:

    scotslass said:

    I have never experienced this. I post on last thread that the next poll will show the SNP above the YES 45% and lo and behold within seconds it appears courtesy of YouGov.

    The Tory campaign is pathetic . The only purchase comes from Labour's scardy custard reaction.

    More power to Lammy's elbow.

    Nicola, the poll 8 days back was exactly the same ! SNP was 49 [ which is greater than 45 ] as they are in this one.
    SNP stalling!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Vox pop in Carlisle: "the SNP have some good policies and they might help us all out".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027

    SMukesh said:

    Labour needs to act quickly and say the obvious thing.

    SNP and Tories are in bed together and trying to get the Tories into power.

    agree - SNP are covertly pushing their support for Labour for the benefit of the tories.
    Tories aren't really in bed with SNP, just enthusiastic voyeurs
    Watching what the SNP is doing to SLAB is nothing like watching any kind of sexual act that I could possibly watch.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244

    GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    LOL! Putting it in terms of "the pound in the Englishman's pocket" might cut through. ;)
    Picking straws from right at the bottom of the pile now. When will Lyndon deliver the bombshell.....Vote Labour get an immigrant for your neighbour ?
    lol! Vote labour, get a Haggis for christmas dinner
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited April 2015
    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    DavidL said:

    I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.

    Worcester, in 1651

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Stunning you gov tonight.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR

    — Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015

    Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
    No.

    UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).

    Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.
  • Tory +4
    Tory +2
    Lab +1
    Lab +2


    the blues have it, the blues have it. Unlock the herd.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.

    So they did. I'm afraid my reference to York comes from that film.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,092
    Delurking for a while .. thanks to all for some interesting, thought-provoking reads.

    GE2010 was often called a good election to lose. Maybe GE2015 is more so.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics ·
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....

    Oh its no problem, we've already transitioned into 'Lab lead of x really means probably a Tory lead in actuality' territory. Could be true I guess, although a bit much to rely on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947
    You Gov still in stasis.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Against my expectations, Labour seem like they're still just about still standing.

    But they still need to hammer home some positive messages to get the more apathetic Labour voters out.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR

    — Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015

    Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
    No.
    UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).

    Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.

    Nice to see we agree.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....

    They asked the Guardian if they wanted to swap pollsters :)

    OTOH, having Lab ahead keeps EICIPM real, which helps with Operation DeKipper.
  • DavidL said:

    How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/590148438320410624
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Well at this rate some pollsters are going to have egg on their face...
  • chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britain
    Pedantry alert!

    Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.

    I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    I just don’t see how the Labour Party can forgive this catastrophe. Ed has presided over it all, from Holyrood 2011, Sindy to GE 2015.

    If Cameron lost 50 seats in the Tory heartlands of Southern England, there’d be squillions of Tories looking up “How to Kill with Joy” on the internet.
    Getting back into government, even severely curtailed by losses to the SNP, will heal or at least temper many wounds I suspect. For a time.
    I just don’t think that is a correct reading of the situation.

    Rather than deal with the SNP, Labour will surely let a Con Minority Govt take office.

    Remember, this is a Con Minority Govt that is going to embark on its favourite hobby, tearing itself to bits over Europe. Not hard to see that it will end in tears.

    And Labour will sort out its leader problem. After first Brown and then Miliband, they now need to get an authentic, popular leader.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I wonder how many ethnically Scottish voters there are in English marginals? Regardless of their views on the SNP my experience (small sample size) is that they are getting incredibly pissed off at a Tory message that says if Scots don't vote the right way their representatives should be treated as Parliamentary lepers.

    Value bet: Labour landslide in Corby.

    The Scottish bits of Corby town do not vote Tory, the posh Northants villages around it do. Corby will remain marginal. Possible Tory gain if low registration in Corby town affects it, or ethnic Scots abandon Labour.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    This loss deposits bet is something that commented on a couple of days ago.
    The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
    Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
    If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....

    Calm down dear, you're the only one who gets moist at the random output from yougov. You'll do yourself a mischief.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

    ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Delighted to see that the SNP are ahead in my brother's constituency of Edinburgh South, but there is a warning there for the SNP in terms of Unionist tactical voting. Ed S was always going to be one of the most difficult seats, given the highest proportion of voters born in England of any Scottish constituency. SNP in the high 40's given 34.7% voting yes there in the referendum consistent with the SNP at 37%. Still Labour would have to squeeze another 3-4% of the remaining 29% left to win, which is over 10% of the residual vote. Reluctant to put this in the SNP column as I was sure Fred Mackintosh was going to gain this for the Lib Dems in 2010, so I'm still going with 55 SNP seats myself - Ed South, Orkney & Shetland, Dumfries & Galloway and BRS resisting the SNP landslide.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Well, at the current rate of progress, the SNP will be taking over from Labour south of the border too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Danny565 said:

    Vox pop in Carlisle: "the SNP have some good policies and they might help us all out".

    Anecdotal but the SNP did appeal to my other half - she has no financial interest in them (Unlike myself) and is in the Labour/Green borderlands politically.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    The one thing that has got me even slightly positive about the chance of a Labour government is that the SNP would simply not let the Labour frontbench pass the spending cuts that they're so obsessed with.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027

    DavidL said:

    I seem to recall them getting as far south as Derby in a previous incarnation.

    Worcester, in 1651


    Think that was more of a Coalition effort. Maybe SNP + Labour?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Off topic: You couldn't make this story up if you tried!

    http://iceagenow.info/2015/04/global-warming-rally-disrupted-snow/
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    DavidL said:

    How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/590148438320410624
    Exactly! Day after day, article after article with personal attacks on Miliband, and then every night, oh yes, that poll we keep paying for, erm, well it says Labour is in front. No wonder Murdoch is going mucking fentle.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    You Gov still in stasis.....

    I think MaxPB said he has done half a dozen yougov VIs in the past fortnight. It isn't a poll, it's a focus group.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Labour should be attacking the SNP much more directly. They bemoan how unequal Scotland is and then do nothing about it in government instead defending middle class priviledges like free education and care for the elderly whilst freezing council tax. The vote SNP get Tory stuff plainly isn't working.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244

    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britain
    Pedantry alert!

    Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.

    I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.
    Thats right, all the people who lost their jobs and homes were actually well pleased at how much the economy was forecast to improve and thank god! They really felt the benefit just like everyone today is rolling in it now Dave's created 2 million new jobs at amazon on 6 quid an hour
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
    Fantastic. Basils back is buggered though.
This discussion has been closed.