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  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    saddened said:

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....

    Calm down dear, you're the only one who gets moist at the random output from yougov. You'll do yourself a mischief.
    Much arfage!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    The one thing that has got me even slightly positive about the chance of a Labour government is that the SNP would simply not let the Labour frontbench pass the spending cuts that they're so obsessed with.
    The Tories would though.

    Arithmetic: 59 Scots, 591 Non Scots.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    The one thing that has got me even slightly positive about the chance of a Labour government is that the SNP would simply not let the Labour frontbench pass the spending cuts that they're so obsessed with.
    Agreed. Nicola is a socialist whereas Alex is not.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387


    Tory +4
    Tory +2
    Lab +1
    Lab +2

    Phone (Con) Vs Online (Lab) continues...

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Live in fear!

    LAB-SNP is near!!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    chestnut said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    The one thing that has got me even slightly positive about the chance of a Labour government is that the SNP would simply not let the Labour frontbench pass the spending cuts that they're so obsessed with.
    The Tories would though.

    Arithmetic: 59 Scots, 591 Non Scots.

    No chance the Tories would vote for any spending cuts proposed by a Labour government. They'd just say they're cutting "the wrong things". And probably even the most diehard austerity-fetishists on the Labour frontbench would realise it would be suicide to actually be arranging a programme of cuts directly with the Tories.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Chip Kelly either has big cojones or an ego the size of a small planet, possibly both.

    He has signed Tim Tebow to a 1 year deal. This means he has 5 qbs including Barkley, Sanchez and Bradford.

    Will Tebow make the team? Who knows. The odds would not favor it
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ave_it said:

    Live in fear!

    LAB-SNP is near!!

    The peril is coming, I hear. Watford could be in the premier !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    Admittedly it is a bit of a difficult argument. They said 2 party government would be a disaster; it wasn't (well, some think it has been, but not because of instability). Now they are saying 3+ party government would be a disaster; but they might have to form one themselves. The SNP being fundamentally different than other coalition prospects I can see getting some headway, they do want to break up the country after all, but as we see from some posters on here, the actual policies of the SNP are not scary for many people, in fact they are appealing.

    I suppose if you are pretending you have a chance at an overall majority you tie yourself to using such campaign tactics?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Ave_it said:

    Live in fear!

    LAB-SNP is near!!

    Weren't the Tories sending you to Defcon fucked anyway though :D ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    The historic first ever daily SPUD (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)

    The best system for telling which way the political wind is blowing

    Con -4
    Lab -5
    UKIP +5
    LD +3
    Green -4

    Daily, part weekly and weekly updates right here after each poll
  • chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britain
    Pedantry alert!

    Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.

    I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.
    Thats right, all the people who lost their jobs and homes were actually well pleased at how much the economy was forecast to improve and thank god! They really felt the benefit just like everyone today is rolling in it now Dave's created 2 million new jobs at amazon on 6 quid an hour
    Careful what you wish for.

    Mind you there surely has to be a Labour administration one day that leaves office with unemployment less than when it took office.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @saddened

    'Calm down dear, you're the only one who gets moist at the random output from yougov. You'll do yourself a mischief.'

    Give him a break, SLAB wipe-out in Scotland with the possibility of more pandas than Scottish Labour MP'S, he's a bit more than moist.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Pulpstar said:

    Ave_it said:

    Live in fear!

    LAB-SNP is near!!

    Weren't the Tories sending you to Defcon fucked anyway though :D ?
    :lol::lol::lol:
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Watch out!

    Sturgeon's about!!
  • saddened said:

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Agian....

    Calm down dear, you're the only one who gets moist at the random output from yougov. You'll do yourself a mischief.
    There is nothing random about You Gov - think they a fishing in a very small pool.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    Labour should be attacking the SNP much more directly. They bemoan how unequal Scotland is and then do nothing about it in government instead defending middle class priviledges like free education and care for the elderly whilst freezing council tax. The vote SNP get Tory stuff plainly isn't working.

    Labour took their Scottish vote for granted, and now that the electorate have wised up, it's payback time. All those years where nothing changed in the heartlands, and the SNP are offering an alternative.

    Heart of stone etc
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    The historic first ever daily SPUD (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)

    The best system for telling which way the political wind is blowing

    Con -4
    Lab -5
    UKIP +5
    LD +3
    Green -4

    Daily, part weekly and weekly updates right here after each poll

    Blimey, SNP surge on your numbers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Tim_B said:

    Chip Kelly either has big cojones or an ego the size of a small planet, possibly both.

    He has signed Tim Tebow to a 1 year deal. This means he has 5 qbs including Barkley, Sanchez and Bradford.

    Will Tebow make the team? Who knows. The odds would not favor it

    Tebow....LOL...the man with slowest release in professional football and hasn't played for what 2 season now?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Look at the places that Cameron visited in Cheshire today - Crewe, Chester, Weaver Vale, Warrington South and Hazel Grove. How come he didn't visist Cheadle - would have thought that would have been on the list?

    Am broadly with JackW's call today although I expect a bit more than 20 Labour gains from the Tories - around 30, balanced up by around 15 Lib Dem gains rather than the 6.....leaving Cameron just about in power but with the weakest mandate possible of Con + LibDem + DUP just about commanding 323 seats
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    DavidL said:

    How desperate must the Current Bun be for this contract to end?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/590148438320410624
    Exactly! Day after day, article after article with personal attacks on Miliband, and then every night, oh yes, that poll we keep paying for, erm, well it says Labour is in front. No wonder Murdoch is going mucking fentle.
    If it leads to an end of the YouGov/Sun poll for the next Parliament, some good will come out of it.

    There has been too much polling in this Parliament. We need to get back to the situation we was in during the last Parliament of around 10 major polls per month (two YouGov, two ICM, two ComRes, Populus and MORI)

    Things have gotten out of control this Parliament with so many online pollsters popping up and YouGov being five times a week.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    chestnut said:

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 3m3 minutes ago
    Sir John Major: A Labour-SNP government ‘would bleed English taxpayers dry’ http://sunpl.us/6015fpuf

    Next they'll be raising interest rates to 15% despite small business after small business collapsing. Thank you Chestnut for reminding us all of Major and his helpful treatment of the people of Britain
    Pedantry alert!

    Rates were never raised to 15% under John Major. They were due to rise to 15% on 17th September 1992, but this was cancelled during the evening of 16th September 1992, as Britain withdrew from the ERM. Rates were cut to 7% in the following months.

    I don't dispute the tory shambles in dealing with the debacle on the day, but I what I can't believe is people still think this was a bad thing. It took us away from a path of joining the Euro and boosted our economy massively.
    Thats right, all the people who lost their jobs and homes were actually well pleased at how much the economy was forecast to improve and thank god! They really felt the benefit just like everyone today is rolling in it now Dave's created 2 million new jobs at amazon on 6 quid an hour
    You're right, much better to stay on benefits.

    Ever heard that song Dignity by Deacon Blue?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Saltire said:

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    This loss deposits bet is something that commented on a couple of days ago.
    The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
    Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
    If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...
    In 1979 , the lost deposit threshold was much higher than the 5% of today , 12.5% IIRC
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
    Sorry ! Who is Ruth ? That's the second time I have seen this name.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    The historic first ever daily SPUD (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)

    The best system for telling which way the political wind is blowing

    Con -4
    Lab -5
    UKIP +5
    LD +3
    Green -4

    Daily, part weekly and weekly updates right here after each poll

    I think you must have missed out on TP^5:
    Tissue Price's Totally Pointless Totalisation of Polls To Predict The Present
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    isam said:

    The historic first ever daily SPUD (Sam's Polling Ups & Downs)

    The best system for telling which way the political wind is blowing

    Con -4
    Lab -5
    UKIP +5
    LD +3
    Green -4

    Daily, part weekly and weekly updates right here after each poll

    Blimey, SNP surge on your numbers.
    Well they did average 58% across the phone pollsters today. Obviously "static Yougov" better for SLAB ;D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    ?

    It's within MOE of ICM and Opinium since Saturday?

    Fair do's the 6% ICM for last week was a big outlier but Lord A's poll today is fine.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Saltire said:

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    This loss deposits bet is something that commented on a couple of days ago.
    The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
    Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
    If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...
    In 1979 , the lost deposit threshold was much higher than the 5% of today , 12.5% IIRC
    Really? When was that changed?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    chestnut said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    The one thing that has got me even slightly positive about the chance of a Labour government is that the SNP would simply not let the Labour frontbench pass the spending cuts that they're so obsessed with.
    The Tories would though.

    Arithmetic: 59 Scots, 591 Non Scots.

    No chance the Tories would vote for any spending cuts proposed by a Labour government. They'd just say they're cutting "the wrong things". And probably even the most diehard austerity-fetishists on the Labour frontbench would realise it would be suicide to actually be arranging a programme of cuts directly with the Tories.
    Checkmate.

    A deal with the Tories= death to the left/Wales and Scotland
    A deal with the SNP = death to the right/England.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Newsnight: No Chilcot report til 2016 at earliest.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    surbiton said:

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
    Sorry ! Who is Ruth ? That's the second time I have seen this name.
    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/590209348854534144
  • Are we getting a Com-Res phone poll this week?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2015
    @compouter2

    'http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/rupert-murdoch-berated-sun-journalists-for-not-doing-enough-to-attack-ed-miliband-10191005.html'

    Left wing newspaper slagging off Murdoch,must be a first.
    That's going to shift a truck load of votes.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited April 2015

    Tim_B said:

    Chip Kelly either has big cojones or an ego the size of a small planet, possibly both.

    He has signed Tim Tebow to a 1 year deal. This means he has 5 qbs including Barkley, Sanchez and Bradford.

    Will Tebow make the team? Who knows. The odds would not favor it

    Tebow....LOL...the man with slowest release in professional football and hasn't played for what 2 season now?
    He is a born leader, he is a motivator, he has a fabulous work ethic, there are no off-field issues, he's everything you want in a quarterback in the NFL.

    Everything except he can't throw a ball downfield without hitting the heater on the sideline.

    This could be viewed by some as a negative......

    One thing he does well is run with the football.
  • surbiton said:

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
    Sorry ! Who is Ruth ? That's the second time I have seen this name.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/590221816515452928
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    GIN1138 said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    ?

    It's within MOE of ICM and Opinium since Saturday?

    Lab vote share too low.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Miliband: "The number of jobs has gone up."

    Glad he's admitted that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Saltire said:

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    This loss deposits bet is something that commented on a couple of days ago.
    The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
    Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
    If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...
    In 1979 , the lost deposit threshold was much higher than the 5% of today , 12.5% IIRC
    How many lost LD deposits in Scotland? It looked pretty close even in favourable places like Edinburgh South. Must be 40 if not 50.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Nice to see Dave showing off their policies for a new term, erm, no that was the SNP manifesto.

    Lynton Crosby, political genius.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Miliband: "The number of jobs has gone up."

    Glad he's admitted that.

    Did he qualify it by saying "... in McDonalds"?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    A little hypocritical perhaps, but there is a world of difference in the arguments back in 2010 and Labour/SNP now. Labour would be entering into some form of arrangement with a party openly wanted to break the union, and openly promising to use Ed's weakness in England to maximise sweeties for Scotland in return for the support he needs to stay in number 10.

    Conservatives were able to get a lot of what they promised done in coalition with the Lib Dems. Labour will only be able to get some of what they promise done in partnership with the SNP, and the country will pay a very high price for it.

    At least the Lib Dems were committed to reducing the deficit for example. The SNP want to all but forget about deficit reduction and go on a massive spending binge. Given Labour's record in government when it comes to excessive spending, i doubt they will need too much encouragement from their partners North of the border to end austerity.

    Sir John Major is right. A deal between Miliband and Sturgeon will cause mayhem for Britain.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    A CON a day keeps the SNP away!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    surbiton said:

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
    Sorry ! Who is Ruth ? That's the second time I have seen this name.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/590221816515452928
    There's something fantastically Faustian about what's happening to SLAB...
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    john_zims said:

    @compouter2

    'http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/rupert-murdoch-berated-sun-journalists-for-not-doing-enough-to-attack-ed-miliband-10191005.html'

    Left wing newspaper slagging off Murdoch,must be a first.
    That's going to shift a truck load of votes.

    Never said it would move votes, think it is very entertaining that the Aussie media man is berating his own journos for not being critical enough of Labour and to stop them at any cost and then they have to post most nights that the poll they are paying thousands for is showing Labour in front.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    There's a *slight* difference, whereas the Con-LD Coalition had large amount of policy overlaps (and no coalition-shattering differences) as well as a healthy majority, a Lab-SNP-??? Coalition would have large degrees of policy difference as well as a humungous area of disagreement (the Union), to top it all off it would probably only just creep over the line to a majority.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BenM said:

    Miliband: "The number of jobs has gone up."

    Glad he's admitted that.

    Did he qualify it by saying "... in McDonalds"?
    It must be all those Labour Party interns on £4 a day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Newsnight: No Chilcot Iraq report this year. The people criticised in the report are not co-operating apparently.
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Its really very good of you to confirm why the lefties have moved over to the SNP, what their motives are and just what the true danger of Labour is to the UK.

    It has just been my pleasure to see Balls on the local news. He says they will help the NHS immediately. 20,000 nurses. 8,000 doctors. Does he know how long it takes to train a doctor and a GP. He clearly thinks nursing is a two a penny job. Either way it takes 10 years to train a GP which is a strange definition of 'instant'.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    Saltire said:

    SCUP holding up well, but still a few percent from SLAB crossover.

    In view of the weakness of SLAB and SLD polling tactical voters look better to be voting Con.

    But PP at 11/10 on 200+ LD lost deposits looks good. There could be 50 in Scotland alone.

    This loss deposits bet is something that commented on a couple of days ago.
    The Yougov poll for Scotland having them on just 4% does make 50 loss deposits in Scotland look very possible. Considering how much they have focused on so few seats in E-W makes another 150 also look very plausible.
    Indeed the Liberals lost 304 deposits in 1979 when getting 13.8% of the vote.
    If nothing else it the sort of bet that would give one interest in alot of the declarations on May 7th...
    In 1979 , the lost deposit threshold was much higher than the 5% of today , 12.5% IIRC
    Really? When was that changed?
    Representation Of People Act 1985

    In 2005 there was in fact a bill put forward to reduce the threshold to 2% but it was never passed
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    And down the PB Hodges go again. Labour 1% in front.

    Tamadoladingdong! Basil distraught.

    The Scum must be really peed off after all this biased reporting and at the end of the night they repeatedly have to put....Labour Ahead Again....

    Has Ruth would say - you ok, hun?

    ;-)
    Sorry ! Who is Ruth ? That's the second time I have seen this name.
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/590221816515452928
    There's something fantastically Faustian about what's happening to SLAB...
    It brings independence closer ?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015
    A strange Miliband on show tonight (being replayed now on Newsnight). Sort of smug. Not sure what he's got to be so about...But then also spaced out and upset, as if about to weep.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Tim_B said:

    Everything except he can't throw a ball downfield without hitting the heater on the sideline.

    This could be viewed by some as a negative......

    LOL
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight: No Chilcot Iraq report this year. The people criticised in the report are not co-operating apparently.

    I wonder who might be...? ;)

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Nice to see Dave showing off their policies for a new term, erm, no that was the SNP manifesto.

    Lynton Crosby, political genius.

    The desperation is really shining through tonight.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Its really very good of you to confirm why the lefties have moved over to the SNP, what their motives are and just what the true danger of Labour is to the UK.

    It has just been my pleasure to see Balls on the local news. He says they will help the NHS immediately. 20,000 nurses. 8,000 doctors. Does he know how long it takes to train a doctor and a GP. He clearly thinks nursing is a two a penny job. Either way it takes 10 years to train a GP which is a strange definition of 'instant'.
    Paying over the odds for doctors 'stolen' from overseas healthcare systems would work wouldn't it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really knows.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

  • Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    If a minority CON (or minority LAB) government managed to get a queens speech through, wouldn't the FTPA protect them?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    BenM said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    ?

    It's within MOE of ICM and Opinium since Saturday?

    Lab vote share too low.
    Au contraire...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    Admittedly it is a bit of a difficult argument. They said 2 party government would be a disaster; it wasn't (well, some think it has been, but not because of instability). Now they are saying 3+ party government would be a disaster; but they might have to form one themselves. The SNP being fundamentally different than other coalition prospects I can see getting some headway, they do want to break up the country after all, but as we see from some posters on here, the actual policies of the SNP are not scary for many people, in fact they are appealing.

    I suppose if you are pretending you have a chance at an overall majority you tie yourself to using such campaign tactics?
    "A difficult argument" is putting it mildly. At best this is completely incoherent, at worst it's an argument for voting Labour.

    The British economy was shit. Now it's great. The rest of Europe is still shit. They're talking about the SNP instead. WTF ARE THEY DOING???
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    A strange Miliband on show tonight (being replayed now on Newsnight). Sort of smug. Not sure what he's got to be so about...But then also spaced out and upset, as if about to weep.

    He thinks victory is in the bag, but doesn't want to be seen to be going all 'Sheffield Kinnock'.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really know.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

    People misunderstood Mike's comment.

    Populus for years, used ICM's call centre in Bedford for their phone polls.

    ICM did the fieldwork, but Populus did the post fieldwork adjustments.

    But when Mike met Lord A last year, Lord A toll Mike he uses a variety of pollsters, but the methodology is always the same
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    Admittedly it is a bit of a difficult argument. They said 2 party government would be a disaster; it wasn't (well, some think it has been, but not because of instability). Now they are saying 3+ party government would be a disaster; but they might have to form one themselves. The SNP being fundamentally different than other coalition prospects I can see getting some headway, they do want to break up the country after all, but as we see from some posters on here, the actual policies of the SNP are not scary for many people, in fact they are appealing.

    I suppose if you are pretending you have a chance at an overall majority you tie yourself to using such campaign tactics?
    "A difficult argument" is putting it mildly. At best this is completely incoherent, at worst it's an argument for voting Labour.

    The British economy was shit. Now it's great. The rest of Europe is still shit. They're talking about the SNP instead. WTF ARE THEY DOING???
    Because the public doesn't think the economy is great, and doesn't care what numbers on a spreadsheet say when their wages are flat and their local services have gone down the tubes.
  • kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    Admittedly it is a bit of a difficult argument. They said 2 party government would be a disaster; it wasn't (well, some think it has been, but not because of instability). Now they are saying 3+ party government would be a disaster; but they might have to form one themselves. The SNP being fundamentally different than other coalition prospects I can see getting some headway, they do want to break up the country after all, but as we see from some posters on here, the actual policies of the SNP are not scary for many people, in fact they are appealing.

    I suppose if you are pretending you have a chance at an overall majority you tie yourself to using such campaign tactics?
    "A difficult argument" is putting it mildly. At best this is completely incoherent, at worst it's an argument for voting Labour.

    The British economy was shit. Now it's great. The rest of Europe is still shit. They're talking about the SNP instead. WTF ARE THEY DOING???
    Disagree about the British economy being great. We wouldn't be facing another 5 years of zero interest rates if it wasn't still FUBAR
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    GIN1138 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really know.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

    People misunderstood Mike's comment.

    Populus for years, used ICM's call centre in Bedford for their phone polls.

    ICM did the fieldwork, but Populus did the post fieldwork adjustments.

    But when Mike met Lord A last year, Lord A toll Mike he uses a variety of pollsters, but the methodology is always the same
    I see. Thx. :smiley:

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR

    — Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015

    Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
    No.
    UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).

    Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.
    Nice to see we agree.

    Yougov have Rotherham and Rother Valley "Leaning Labour" i.e. the additional swing to defeat Labour is less than 5% from current analysis. Obviously these are two of the UKIP second string target seats.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    GIN1138 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really know.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

    Damningly, Mike Smithson has said that it is *sometimes* ICM. If Lord A is really mix and matching polling companies and presenting the results as a uniform data set, I am surprised that any serious psephologist gives him the time of day, or attaches any credibility at all to any of his polling. If he makes an error in straightforward national polling which I would expect an autistic gerbil to recognise as a mistake, why on earth trust him on the difficult marginals stuff?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Nice to see Dave showing off their policies for a new term, erm, no that was the SNP manifesto.

    Lynton Crosby, political genius.

    Remind me - what day last week did the Tories announce their manifesto.
    Every time you say 'Lynton Crosby' you demonstrate you are losing it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    weejonnie said:

    saddened said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Public were queuing up to hear Mark Reckless and Nigel Farage this evening in Rochester. Seen nothing like it #UKIP pic.twitter.com/UhwKPBAHyR

    — Chris Irvine (@ci247) April 20, 2015

    Do I hear the beginnings of a mighty swell from the voting ocean? If so swells, when they reach the shore turn into big waves.
    No.
    UKIP, or more specifically, Nigel Farage, has been speaking to enthusiastic - and full - town halls and other venues all campaign (of course, not reported at all in the MSM).

    Won't translate into seats though, unfortunately.
    Nice to see we agree.
    Yougov have Rotherham and Rother Valley "Leaning Labour" i.e. the additional swing to defeat Labour is less than 5% from current analysis. Obviously these are two of the UKIP second string target seats.


    They have Edinburgh North and Leith as TCTC where SNP are 12 pts ahead though so I wouldn't pay too much attention to the minutiae of their map.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    GIN1138 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really know.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

    People misunderstood Mike's comment.

    Populus for years, used ICM's call centre in Bedford for their phone polls.

    ICM did the fieldwork, but Populus did the post fieldwork adjustments.

    But when Mike met Lord A last year, Lord A toll Mike he uses a variety of pollsters, but the methodology is always the same
    And there is no such thing as a house effect.

    I see.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    GIN1138 said:



    Things have gotten out of control this Parliament with so many online pollsters popping up and YouGov being five times a week.

    I don't think so - we've all got used to taking the odd rogue poll with equanimity, because another one comes along a few hours later and says it's nonsense. Previously, one rogue could change the political climate for days, and that's not really a sensible way to conduct politics.

    Anyway, a tick and a tock to postal vote time. Around 25% of the total in my patch - is that about average?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
    Will Farron move against Clegg ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Finkelstein a bit rattled about Ed on Newsnight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tonight's Newsnight Index puts Labour on 269, a net gain of 11 seats.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
    Will Farron move against Clegg ?
    I'm convinced that as soon as polls close on May the 7th.

    Tim Farron will call for Clegg to quit, David Davis or Graham Brady will call for Dave to quit and some Labour folk will call for Ed to quit.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Evan Davis has called the election for Miliband.

    Guess that saves a lot of money putting out all the polling booths on May 7...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2015

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Its really very good of you to confirm why the lefties have moved over to the SNP, what their motives are and just what the true danger of Labour is to the UK.

    It has just been my pleasure to see Balls on the local news. He says they will help the NHS immediately. 20,000 nurses. 8,000 doctors. Does he know how long it takes to train a doctor and a GP. He clearly thinks nursing is a two a penny job. Either way it takes 10 years to train a GP which is a strange definition of 'instant'.
    Paying over the odds for doctors 'stolen' from overseas healthcare systems would work wouldn't it?
    From Pulse the GP magazine:

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/views/blogs/through-the-k-hole/its-only-a-matter-of-time-before-the-political-promises-pop/20009720.blog

    It's only a matter of time before the political promises pop.

    Posted by: Through The K Hole
    16 April 2015
    In the run up to the election a crack team of magical elves are releasing pink bubbles filled with dreams.

    The elves work in the Hope Factory and it’s a busy place. Surrounding a gleaming copper machine that looks like something from a Jules Verne novel is a small army of bearded men who pull levers and watch pressure gauges.

    On the hour, every hour, a steam whistle toots and the newest bubble is released and on this occasion we all gather round in wonder to watch as it floats gently out of the factory window.

    ‘Life is wonderful,’ says one of the little bearded men who has paused to take a rest. ‘As I see it, life is an enormous puppy made out of comfort blankets and doe-eyed kittens and the politicians want to share some of that wonder with you.

    ‘We’re filling those balloons you can see up there with the hopes and dreams and aspirations of our politicians and we want the people to share in it. We want you to all live forever, we want millions of extra nurses and thousands of extra doctors, we want you to see your own GP at any time of day or night, we want to build state of the art hospitals made of liquorice and we want you to drive magic cars that run on rainwater. We can make this happen. We can make this a better Britain, a Britain full of magic and wonderment, a Britain teeming with promises that are never broken.’

    The steam whistle blew again and another delightful gossamer bubble filled with hope was released, to the cheers of those below.

    One day though, perhaps after the election, the air will drain of colour and one by one the little bubbles will come down from the sky. On the wet pavements, on the slick roof tops and on the silent chimney stacks of Britain, the bubbles will pop, leaving their fragile contents to die alone, in the rain.

    Dr Kevin Hinkley is a GP in Aberdeen
  • DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    Ishmael_X said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really know.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

    Damningly, Mike Smithson has said that it is *sometimes* ICM. If Lord A is really mix and matching polling companies and presenting the results as a uniform data set, I am surprised that any serious psephologist gives him the time of day, or attaches any credibility at all to any of his polling. If he makes an error in straightforward national polling which I would expect an autistic gerbil to recognise as a mistake, why on earth trust him on the difficult marginals stuff?
    The lord giveth and the lord taketh away
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    BenM said:

    Yet another silly outlier of an Ashcroft poll today.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that these "ashcroft" polls are actually ICM polls. Deliciously, we can therefore choose to put this one together with last week's six point ICM lead and conclude that neither is an outlier. Hurray!
    We are right and everybody else is wrong...could be!
    I was told by someone on here that it's Populus. I don't think anybody really know.

    Not sure why Lord A is so reluctant to come clean either? Clearly we all know he;s not sitting in his mansion speed dialling thousands of voters every week, so why the big secret?

    Damningly, Mike Smithson has said that it is *sometimes* ICM. If Lord A is really mix and matching polling companies and presenting the results as a uniform data set, I am surprised that any serious psephologist gives him the time of day, or attaches any credibility at all to any of his polling. If he makes an error in straightforward national polling which I would expect an autistic gerbil to recognise as a mistake, why on earth trust him on the difficult marginals stuff?
    I agree with all that - assuming it is correct. If Ashcroft cannot tell mus one way or another even if he does not name the company(ies) it is equally damning.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    Coalition of Chaos! OMGA

    Of course it's not hypocritical in any way for a coalition to attack the opposition because it might form a coalition... #youcouldntmakeitup

    Admittedly it is a bit of a difficult argument. They said 2 party government would be a disaster; it wasn't (well, some think it has been, but not because of instability). Now they are saying 3+ party government would be a disaster; but they might have to form one themselves. The SNP being fundamentally different than other coalition prospects I can see getting some headway, they do want to break up the country after all, but as we see from some posters on here, the actual policies of the SNP are not scary for many people, in fact they are appealing.

    I suppose if you are pretending you have a chance at an overall majority you tie yourself to using such campaign tactics?
    "A difficult argument" is putting it mildly. At best this is completely incoherent, at worst it's an argument for voting Labour.

    The British economy was shit. Now it's great. The rest of Europe is still shit. They're talking about the SNP instead. WTF ARE THEY DOING???
    If you tell the public the economy is "great", then they vote Labour.

    I do expect a focus on the economy & especially the deficit over the run-in, however.
  • GIN1138 said:



    Things have gotten out of control this Parliament with so many online pollsters popping up and YouGov being five times a week.

    I don't think so - we've all got used to taking the odd rogue poll with equanimity, because another one comes along a few hours later and says it's nonsense. Previously, one rogue could change the political climate for days, and that's not really a sensible way to conduct politics.

    Anyway, a tick and a tock to postal vote time. Around 25% of the total in my patch - is that about average?
    What if all the You Govs turn out to be rogues?

    We are starting to see a clear divergence between the panel and the phone pollsters.

    Someone is going to look stupid come May 8th.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
    Will Farron move against Clegg ?
    I'm convinced that as soon as polls close on May the 7th.

    Tim Farron will call for Clegg to quit, David Davis or Graham Brady will call for Dave to quit and some Labour folk will call for Ed to quit.
    Forgetting Carswell :D
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
    Will Farron move against Clegg ?
    I'm convinced that as soon as polls close on May the 7th.

    Tim Farron will call for Clegg to quit, David Davis or Graham Brady will call for Dave to quit and some Labour folk will call for Ed to quit.
    Forgetting Carswell :D
    Carswell will call on himself to quit.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Nice to see Dave showing off their policies for a new term, erm, no that was the SNP manifesto.

    Lynton Crosby, political genius.

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Its really very good of you to confirm why the lefties have moved over to the SNP, what their motives are and just what the true danger of Labour is to the UK.

    It has just been my pleasure to see Balls on the local news. He says they will help the NHS immediately. 20,000 nurses. 8,000 doctors. Does he know how long it takes to train a doctor and a GP. He clearly thinks nursing is a two a penny job. Either way it takes 10 years to train a GP which is a strange definition of 'instant'.
    People sometimes travel from one country to another country.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
    FFA for EV4EL is a deal that possibly could be done but it wouldn't change the underlying situation that the opposition parties could still bring Cameron down at a time and on an issue of their choosing. Furthermore, having done so, they'd be halfway towards forcing a snap election if that was what they wanted too (either Miliband, or whoever's taken over from him, announces that he can't form a government or more likely, he attempts to engineer a defeat for his new government on the necessary motion of confidence).
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154

    Nice to see Dave showing off their policies for a new term, erm, no that was the SNP manifesto.

    Lynton Crosby, political genius.

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Its really very good of you to confirm why the lefties have moved over to the SNP, what their motives are and just what the true danger of Labour is to the UK.

    It has just been my pleasure to see Balls on the local news. He says they will help the NHS immediately. 20,000 nurses. 8,000 doctors. Does he know how long it takes to train a doctor and a GP. He clearly thinks nursing is a two a penny job. Either way it takes 10 years to train a GP which is a strange definition of 'instant'.
    People sometimes travel from one country to another country.
    The last time I needed to see a GP it was rather good chap from Holland. The last time I had to use the NHS for surgery it was a rather good South African of Boer ancestry.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    This week's Locus Forecast: Con 293 Lab 265 SNP 48 LD 21

    ukelect.wordpress.com/2015/04/20/poll-of-polls-2/

    Not good news if you prefer to live in a country with a government.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    SLAB has been killed.

    The only interesting question now is who is going to be getting the blame? Who are the defeated SLAB MPs going to criticise in the bitter aftermath of defeat?

    I just don’t see Ed surviving this.

    Irrespective of who the Scottish MPs blame, Ed is not surviving if he doesn't get into government, surely?
    Indeed so, and in fact it would be in several Shadow Cabinet members' interests to make sure Ed didn't get into power from 20-odd seats behind on 265. They might be PM within a year.
    But Cameron holds the trump card in that situation: if he resigns, Miliband will be invited to form a government. He wouldn't say 'no', would he?
    That's a rather nuclear trump card for DC to play. But, good point. Important to remember that internal party dynamics might be crucial if it's on a knife-edge.
    It's one that's been played in the past, to mixed effect. The figures you suggest are indeed knife-edge (I'd guess Con+LD = SNP+Lab = 315) but in that position, would the Lib Dems prop up the Tories? I suspect not. In which case, Cameron staying in office is really him just waiting for the other parties to pick their moment to bring him down. So why give them the satisfaction? And with it being so knife-edge, precipitating the event may force hands before either Labour or the SNP are ready, leaving the Tories - if not Cameron himself - in a reasonable position to come back.

    I doubt Cameron would be all that keen to hang on to office for its own sake. He's been PM for five years and party leader for nearly a decade. He's said this would be his last term either way. The hunger isn't quite the same as for a Leader of the Opposition.
    Well if DC can get a Queen's Speech through on Labour abstention, then he might be able to do a deal with the SNP (full autonomy for EV4EL). But I can see that he might prefer to force Ed into Number 10 in very weak circumstances.
    Will Farron move against Clegg ?
    I'm convinced that as soon as polls close on May the 7th.

    Tim Farron will call for Clegg to quit, David Davis or Graham Brady will call for Dave to quit and some Labour folk will call for Ed to quit.
    Everybody quits except Nicola and we have another go in October with Chuka, Boris, Tim, Douglas, Caroline (and Nicola)?

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited April 2015
    Just seen this comment by Salmond in the 1992 election, seems like he was 23 years too early.

    http://gyazo.com/0d5c5157d990296df156cd32e6f7badf.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    On topic-ish. There are 36 days between the beginning of April and the last day before the election so rather than doing a full April PB polling average, I've split that period into two, the first of which has just finished (i.e. 1-18 April). The results are interesting, though how much you believe them probably depends on how much credit you give the ICM score. Full piece to come mid-week, I hope.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Nice to see Dave showing off their policies for a new term, erm, no that was the SNP manifesto.

    Lynton Crosby, political genius.

    surbiton said:

    To tell the truth: I wish Nicola's manifesto was ours.

    I would give anything to see her stop Trident !

    Its really very good of you to confirm why the lefties have moved over to the SNP, what their motives are and just what the true danger of Labour is to the UK.

    It has just been my pleasure to see Balls on the local news. He says they will help the NHS immediately. 20,000 nurses. 8,000 doctors. Does he know how long it takes to train a doctor and a GP. He clearly thinks nursing is a two a penny job. Either way it takes 10 years to train a GP which is a strange definition of 'instant'.
    People sometimes travel from one country to another country.
    And no one ever gets sick in third world countries, so no harm in sucking them empty of medical professionals.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    16 days left to mention SNP!!!

    Sorry I mean the economy!!!
This discussion has been closed.