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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ashcroft Scottish seat polling finds SNP gains from LAB

SystemSystem Posts: 12,553
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ashcroft Scottish seat polling finds SNP gains from LAB, LD & CON

Ashcroft. SNP GAIN from CON
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale pic.twitter.com/5mFt9vew1X

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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Will there be more Labour MPs than Pandas? :D
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    SNP still surging.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    What the SNP are doing to SLAB :mask:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Glasgow NE is still safe right? Right?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hmph. I'm doing my round-up of the SNP's prospects tomorrow morning which was going to be based on best prices from Tuesday.

    I guess I'm doing some further research tomorrow morning now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    Alistair said:

    Glasgow NE is still safe right? Right?

    Lol No.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,587
    We could have the situation of more Scottish Tory MPs than Scottish Labour MPs.

    But Calum and Antifrank tipsters of the year.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    It will be a shame if Charles Kennedy goes.

    The Lib Dems could just hang on in Berwickshire.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No mention of the Con gain of course ;)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    New Ashcroft Scottish seat polling finds SNP gains from LAB, LD & CON.

    Is that really an accurate reflection of these new polls?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,557
    BR&S is going to be VERY interesting on the night.
    Glad I'm short Kennedy. And what a sad way for his career to end.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    TGOHF said:

    No mention of the Con gain of course ;)

    The surge is a mirage
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    How many Scottish seats are there? About 53-57?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    How many Scottish seats are there? About 53-57?

    59.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    antifrank said:

    Hmph. I'm doing my round-up of the SNP's prospects tomorrow morning which was going to be based on best prices from Tuesday.

    I guess I'm doing some further research tomorrow morning now.

    I just managed to get £500 on the SNP in Glasgow SW @ evens.

    SNP 21 points ahead.

    Nutz.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    SeanT said:

    Oof. I may have to readjust my predix. They were based on Labour retaining 8-15 MPs in Scotland, due to incumbency and general Surely-They-Can't-Lose-Glasgowness.

    If Labour are totally wiped out in Scotland, I begin to wonder if Miliband will have a plurality, after all.

    What an election. Why are voters bored? This is scintillating.

    It's the electoral anoraks election. The only fun is in Scotland, everywhere else the major parties are test how low their core vote is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    chestnut said:

    John_N said:

    CON, LAB and even LD had a chance to show inspired leadership as soon as the indyref result came in. I mean actually attending to the issue of improving the Union. They could have started a big British-level conversation (I don't mean wonks-only), looking towards a new settlement, perhaps even to be put to people in simultaneous referendums in each of the Union's four constituent parts. None of the party leaderships had the gumption.

    I don't think Lib and Lab quite realised how seismic an event it would be.

    With 11 and 41 MPs 'no-change' must have looked pretty attractive in mid-September.

    I can recall people on here dismissing the first SNP sub-samples that started to come through at the end of September 2014 as polling aberrations.
    Not me. As regular pb-ers know, I predicted


    1. a fairly narrow NO win
    2. a Salmond resignation (tho I got the timing wrong)
    3. a very big consolation vote for the Nats in the GE

    ... and I predicted this about three days BEFORE the indyref. Here. On Ye PB.COM.

    FWIW here's my next Scottish soothsaying: the Nats will romp home in May (as we all know), though a few Labour incumbents might prove stickier than expected (hence my prediction of a narrow Miliband plurality, despite Scots carnage).

    HOWEVER I reckon Sturgeon will find Holyrood 2016 much harder going. By then Scotland will have considerable new fiscal powers, so Scottish voters will be deciding how much tax they want to give Nicola. That will sober them up. Moreover, polls show that most Scots DON'T want another referendum yet (and if they got one, they'd probably vote NO again).

    The SNP's position will therefore be much more uncomfortable in 2016, as compared to being simply and easily anti-Tory in London in 2015.

    I seriously doubt Sturgeon will get an overall majority in the next Holyrood elex.
    Very difficult to get a majority in that parliament, the way its voting system was fiddled by Mr Dewar's Labour Party to stop that ever happening. It's almost certainly designed purposely to give the Labour Party (and the Tories and LDs incidentally) the more list seats the more they lose in the first round.

    I think what we will see in the runup to 2016 is people taking a hard look at how the mechanisms work and how best to vote on constituency and list to avoid wasted votes. It's not at all obvious to me whom the ensuing tactical voting would favour.


  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Is Willie Bain in Glasgow NE going to be the only Labour MP left?

    (Lord Ashcroft polled the seat last time with a 7% Lab lead.)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    And these polls were done before last night's debate - which can only have helped SNP further.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @pressassoc
    #Breaking Nine out of 12 journalists awaiting trial for paying public officials for scoops after Operation Elveden have their cases dropped
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    So what have we learned from these polls from Scotland ?

    Tories main opposition to the SNP ;-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    How many Scottish seats are there? About 53-57?

    59.
    Lab maj price of 40/1 looks right in this new light.

    Would have to win 100 seats in rUk.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Will there be more Labour MPs than Pandas? :D

    Sweetie had AID (or AI, anyway) earlier this spring. Why, do you think the SLAB MPs need help with some electric prods and big syringes?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    Mr. Antifrank, cheers. I'll try and remember that for the next [if there is one] electoral prediction contest.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    In seats polled twice SNP margins are increasing

    Same polling company both times?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    They could win all 59. Maybe not Orkney !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    Had to chuckle at that. Maybe he could be ennobled by EICIPM? :D
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    Miss Plato, a shame the police aren't as active hunting down the Rotherham abusers (et al.) as they are pursuing journalists for phone hacking.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BR&S is going to be VERY interesting on the night.
    Glad I'm short Kennedy. And what a sad way for his career to end.

    Whuh? All political careers end in failure, and sadness. Charlie Kennedy has had a good run for his money, despite being a total sot.
    Kennedy probably will win, if anyone does !
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anyone got the declaration times for Scottish seats handy?

    A night worth being up for the whole thing.
    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Also a big difference between this East Dunbartonshire poll and the Lib Dem commissioned one.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    BR&S is going to be VERY interesting on the night.
    Glad I'm short Kennedy. And what a sad way for his career to end.

    All political careers end in failure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    I can't see how Labour get most seats now.

    But I can see how how Ed becomes PM.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    What the SNP are doing to SLAB :mask:

    Increasing chances of a minority Labour government by taking away 11 or 12 potential Coalition seats
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, a shame the police aren't as active hunting down the Rotherham abusers (et al.) as they are pursuing journalists for phone hacking.

    Coulson one of the journos who have had their charges dropped.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    Tykejohnno said:

    So what have we learned from these polls from Scotland ?

    Tories main opposition to the SNP ;-)

    AND that much less likely to vote tactically for Labour and LD, maybe?

    Those bar charts show very little direct evidence of tactical voting against the SNP, so either it is pro SNP or is being swamped by pro-SNP tactical voting. ,

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    Artist said:

    Also a big difference between this East Dunbartonshire poll and the Lib Dem commissioned one.

    Those Lib Dem polls are verging on the "p" word.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ouch
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    edited April 2015
    Deadline for registering to vote is on Monday.

    Will electorate figures be published for each constituency - and if so, when?

    None of the polls is asking whether respondents are registered to vote. I think this is now probably Cameron's main potential upside - that far more young people are not registered compared to 2010.

    Plus the generally very low level of interest amongst the public - as illustrated by the TV debate ratings. Low turnout must favour Con.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Where are the LD's supposed to get their seats from next Parliament?

    I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.

    Where is looking good for the LD's?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,557
    Morris_Dancer said:

    How many Scottish seats are there? About 53-57?

    It is possible that Scotland will have 58 SNP MPs, and the Liberal Democrats will have Orkney & Shetland... and that will be it...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    I think the Tories will hold DC&T. I suspect there is some level of shy Tories in a lot of Scottish polling. Could save them there. It would be truly hilarious if the Tories end up with two seats in Scotland.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    Mr. Surbiton, that's optimistic to the point of neglecting reality. Labour losing 40 plus seats is in no way helpful, and outweighs any potential 'gain' due to Lib Dem and Conservatives losses.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Artist said:

    Also a big difference between this East Dunbartonshire poll and the Lib Dem commissioned one.

    One was a poll to see how people would vote, the other was a poll to produce a bar chart.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,295
    edited April 2015
    Just a note...

    A third Blackpool supporter sued by the club's owner Owen Oyston and chairman Karl Oyston has apologised for comments made on the internet.

    Frank Knight, who published his apology on the website Facebook, is also paying £20,000 damages to the Oystons.

    The family is seeking £150,000 damages for allegedly defamatory comments on the Back Henry Street website.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32348363

    Some people getting some nasty shocks for posting abuse on the internet.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    edited April 2015
    fpt
    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Andrew said:

    Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)

    Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......

    Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.
    He. Was. In. A. Coalition.

    Which of course I understand you get but don't forget some Tory backbenchers really are dense.
    Nobody made him go in to a coalition he chose to.
    True. He panicked. But you would have expected those backbenchers to have rolled up their sleeves and got on with it instead of sulking like 5-yr olds.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), hmm. His trial date had been set back fairly recently.

    Mr. 1000, I do wonder how the Lib Dems will fare if they're obliterated in Scotland and the south-west.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Every raving ScotNat on here said he was going to bomb - the intelligentsia of the board wisely declared that he was clearly ultra effective as had us totally scared.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    MaxPB said:

    I think the Tories will hold DC&T. I suspect there is some level of shy Tories in a lot of Scottish polling. Could save them there. It would be truly hilarious if the Tories end up with two seats in Scotland.

    Could gain Dumfries and Galloway too.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    So since Jim Murphy took over, Scottish Labour's polling has got WORSE, in a timeframe where Labour's UK-wide polling has actually got slightly better.

    Just what on earth was the media smoking when they proclaimed Jim Murphy to be SLAB's saviour??
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Millsy said:

    Is Willie Bain in Glasgow NE going to be the only Labour MP left?

    (Lord Ashcroft polled the seat last time with a 7% Lab lead.)

    Look at the swings in the three Labour seats from the last time they were polled: 5%, 9%, 1.5%.

    Apply two of those to the last Glasgow NE poll and it will be an SNP gain too. I reckon that the SNP will feel disappointed not to make a clean sweep of all 59 seats. I'm sure they will put a brave face on it if they fall three or four seats short.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Where are the LD's supposed to get their seats from next Parliament?

    I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.

    Where is looking good for the LD's?

    Cambridge.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    What price a Lab/Con tactical deal? Tactical votes to save Mundell and push Lamont over the line in return for tactical votes to save Murphy and A N Other?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2015
    Something is not right ! We get these polls and in SPIN, the SNP is 41.5 - 43.5.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Artist said:

    Also a big difference between this East Dunbartonshire poll and the Lib Dem commissioned one.

    Those Lib Dem polls are verging on the "p" word.
    The difference is the for some inexplicable reason Lord A doesn't undertake named candidate polling under three weeks from the election.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Millsy said:

    Is Willie Bain in Glasgow NE going to be the only Labour MP left?

    (Lord Ashcroft polled the seat last time with a 7% Lab lead.)

    Look at the swings in the three Labour seats from the last time they were polled: 5%, 9%, 1.5%.

    Apply two of those to the last Glasgow NE poll and it will be an SNP gain too. I reckon that the SNP will feel disappointed not to make a clean sweep of all 59 seats. I'm sure they will put a brave face on it if they fall three or four seats short.
    The absolute worst for them would be if they took Orkeny&Shetlands but failed at 1 seat on the mainland
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    On these figures even Willie Bain is in trouble. A similar swing in Galsgow NE would see a decent SNP victory. Insane.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    Alistair said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Every raving ScotNat on here said he was going to bomb - the intelligentsia of the board wisely declared that he was clearly ultra effective as had us totally scared.
    Indeed. And do you think Mr @Speedy is right in pushing Mr Kelly as next North British Branch Manager? The idea intrigues me as I'd have thought some of the others were more likely.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    And a Lib Con stitch up. Give us Berwickshire and we will try to help save Mings old seat and support Jo and the Gordon candidate
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    MikeL said:

    Deadline for registering to vote is on Monday.

    Will electorate figures be published for each constituency - and if so, when?

    None of the polls is asking whether respondents are registered to vote. I think this is now probably Cameron's main potential upside - that far more young people are not registered compared to 2010.

    Plus the generally very low level of interest amongst the public - as illustrated by the TV debate ratings. Low turnout must favour Con.

    I suspect those not registered to vote will match those who did not / do not vote to a large extent.

    By not registering they may well increase the turnout percentage, but make no other noticeable difference.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Anybody who had any clue would have known Murphy was toast, his back stabbing of Lamont , being a right winger and generally being very unpopular in Scotland made it a certainty. Fact he is useless to boot helped.

    PS Kelly is not even Donkey level.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Artist said:

    Also a big difference between this East Dunbartonshire poll and the Lib Dem commissioned one.

    Those Lib Dem polls are verging on the "p" word.
    The difference is the for some inexplicable reason Lord A doesn't undertake named candidate polling under three weeks from the election.

    I'd take the Lib Dem polling a touch more seriously if it didn't have all the leading questions.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TGOHF said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Where are the LD's supposed to get their seats from next Parliament?

    I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.

    Where is looking good for the LD's?

    Cambridge.
    Even Sutton is looking dodgy for them now....
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    One nation La-

    ...oh, er, wait.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TGOHF said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Where are the LD's supposed to get their seats from next Parliament?

    I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.

    Where is looking good for the LD's?

    Cambridge.
    Maybe, two or three in London. I have never been part of the opinion that there are bastion of seats for incumbents.

    If there is a sea change against a party, then no one is immune from the wave.

    Less than 10 ? The Libs will never enter a coalition with the Tories in this century ! They have been naïve !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think the Tories will hold DC&T. I suspect there is some level of shy Tories in a lot of Scottish polling. Could save them there. It would be truly hilarious if the Tories end up with two seats in Scotland.

    Could gain Dumfries and Galloway too.
    I thought the last poll had them too far behind to even win with a shy Tory factor?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    dyedwoolie said:

    What price a Lab/Con tactical deal? Tactical votes to save Mundell and push Lamont over the line in return for tactical votes to save Murphy and A N Other?

    dyedwoolie said:

    And a Lib Con stitch up. Give us Berwickshire and we will try to help save Mings old seat and support Jo and the Gordon candidate

    What do you think the former in particular would do to the Labour vote more widely? An extra 1-3% points in one seat isn't worth a comparable fall elsewhere. And not everyone rates Mr Murphy (as the pro-indy folk on this board pointed out months back).

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Just a note...

    A third Blackpool supporter sued by the club's owner Owen Oyston and chairman Karl Oyston has apologised for comments made on the internet.

    Frank Knight, who published his apology on the website Facebook, is also paying £20,000 damages to the Oystons.

    The family is seeking £150,000 damages for allegedly defamatory comments on the Back Henry Street website.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32348363

    Some people getting some nasty shocks for posting abuse on the internet.

    Paging tim.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    This is the moment when I wish I wasn't at work, I would be desperatly checking Corals and Betfiar Sports book for ludicrous prices.

    Last set of Scottish Ashcroft polls Betfair Sportsbook only suspended the specific constituencies - the rest of Edinburgh was available to bet on for instance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    timmo said:

    TGOHF said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Where are the LD's supposed to get their seats from next Parliament?

    I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.

    Where is looking good for the LD's?

    Cambridge.
    Even Sutton is looking dodgy for them now....
    I'll be honest, your buy of the Lib Dems @ 25.5 for £100 was ballsy.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Alistair said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Every raving ScotNat on here said he was going to bomb - the intelligentsia of the board wisely declared that he was clearly ultra effective as had us totally scared.
    I genuinely can't understand where the overhype came from. I always thought Murphy makes even Ed Miliband look charismatic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Anybody who had any clue would have known Murphy was toast, his back stabbing of Lamont , being a right winger and generally being very unpopular in Scotland made it a certainty. Fact he is useless to boot helped.

    PS Kelly is not even Donkey level.
    time for you to step up, Malc.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,920
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Andrew said:

    Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)

    Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......

    Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.
    He. Was. In. A. Coalition.

    Which of course I understand you get but don't forget some Tory backbenchers really are dense.
    Nobody made him go in to a coalition he chose to.
    True. He panicked. But you would have expected those backbenchers to have rolled up their sleeves and got on with it instead of sulking like 5-yr olds.
    It's not his backbenchers stopping him gaining a majority. it's the electorate.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    surbiton said:

    Something is not right ! We get these polls and in SPIN, the SNP is 41.5 - 43.5.

    The SNP price on Sporting Index is suspended when you go onto their site. It will not return at 41.5-43.5.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Every raving ScotNat on here said he was going to bomb - the intelligentsia of the board wisely declared that he was clearly ultra effective as had us totally scared.
    Indeed. And do you think Mr @Speedy is right in pushing Mr Kelly as next North British Branch Manager? The idea intrigues me as I'd have thought some of the others were more likely.

    LOL, They are next for the chopping board
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?

    Or is that wishful thinking on my part?

    Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    So was there an interview with Clegg/Cameron after yesterdays debate?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    What price a Lab/Con tactical deal? Tactical votes to save Mundell and push Lamont over the line in return for tactical votes to save Murphy and A N Other?

    dyedwoolie said:

    And a Lib Con stitch up. Give us Berwickshire and we will try to help save Mings old seat and support Jo and the Gordon candidate

    What do you think the former in particular would do to the Labour vote more widely? An extra 1-3% points in one seat isn't worth a comparable fall elsewhere. And not everyone rates Mr Murphy (as the pro-indy folk on this board pointed out months back).

    I don't know. I just musing really on what the panic might do to make some strange bedfellows! Both Lab and the Tories have squeezable chunks in third in Murphy and Mundells seats.

    What will be interesting, given that it's the Lib Dems and Labour who are suffering the demonstrable collapse in support and the Tory vote seems to be holding at ca 16-17%, is what happens swing wise in the SNP-Con straight fights from last time - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus and Banff and Buchan and perhaps Moray. Will there be a big swing here too to the SNP, or in the absence of strong Lab and Lib presence will the SNP just hold them on a small swing 'business as usual'?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Alanbrooke said:

    TOPPING said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Andrew said:

    Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)

    Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......

    Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.
    He. Was. In. A. Coalition.

    Which of course I understand you get but don't forget some Tory backbenchers really are dense.
    Nobody made him go in to a coalition he chose to.
    True. He panicked. But you would have expected those backbenchers to have rolled up their sleeves and got on with it instead of sulking like 5-yr olds.
    It's not his backbenchers stopping him gaining a majority. it's the electorate.

    Yes the electorate which isn't as right-wing as Cameron.

    And your answer is ... to be more right wing?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?

    Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.

    LOL.

    I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader.
    And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
    Anybody who had any clue would have known Murphy was toast, his back stabbing of Lamont , being a right winger and generally being very unpopular in Scotland made it a certainty. Fact he is useless to boot helped.

    PS Kelly is not even Donkey level.
    time for you to step up, Malc.
    I cannot afford the pay cut and could not fiddle expenses as I am an honest man. The free champagne every day is tempting though. That and all the subsidised food would mean I would be the size of a gable end in no time.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Danny565 said:

    So since Jim Murphy took over, Scottish Labour's polling has got WORSE, in a timeframe where Labour's UK-wide polling has actually got slightly better.

    Just what on earth was the media smoking when they proclaimed Jim Murphy to be SLAB's saviour??

    The interesting point for Labour south of the border is that Jim Murphy is, of course, a Blairite, whose success was to have been contrasted with Miliband's failure.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    31 Mar 2015 - Jim Murphy predicts 'big and late' swing to Scottish Labour


    The man’s truly psychic..! :lol:


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11507041/Jim-Murphy-predicts-big-and-late-swing-to-Scottish-Labour.html
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BenM said:

    One nation La-

    ...oh, er, wait.

    Yep,all those things labour threw at the tories,one nation,panda's and now we could have labour down in Scotland and even down in south of England(except London)

    One nation labour indeed - lol.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    Bob__Sykes said:

    One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?

    Or is that wishful thinking on my part?

    Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.

    Never reinforce failure ...

    Actually, I'm expecting the Tories to keep a toehold, though still at Giant Panda levels (even if Labour crash to Red Panda levels). Those who live by the FPTP sword die by it.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Bob__Sykes said:

    One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?

    Or is that wishful thinking on my part?

    Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.

    It looks as if they will be much closer to parity with Lab and LibDems!
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    So since Jim Murphy took over, Scottish Labour's polling has got WORSE, in a timeframe where Labour's UK-wide polling has actually got slightly better.

    Just what on earth was the media smoking when they proclaimed Jim Murphy to be SLAB's saviour??

    The people who proclaimed him "saviour" were Tories or Blairites, since Murphy is a conservative.
    However everyone with common sense knows that conservatives do not get votes in scotland, to some that didn't matter because they want Labour to lose seats not retain them.

    In short, the media and the Tories supported Murphy not only because he is one of them but also because he was the most likely man to wipe out Labour in scotland.
    It's a common trick in American or Australian politics to support the person who is most likely to lose to your guy (example: Romney).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Artist said:

    Also a big difference between this East Dunbartonshire poll and the Lib Dem commissioned one.

    Those Lib Dem polls are verging on the "p" word.
    The difference is the for some inexplicable reason Lord A doesn't undertake named candidate polling under three weeks from the election.

    I'd take the Lib Dem polling a touch more seriously if it didn't have all the leading questions.
    I understand that.

    However Lord A's half way house "your constituency" question doesn't get down to the core of incumbency which is a critical factor in LibDem seats but also high profile seats for other parties.

    Farage, Galloway, Lucas as well as a raft of Con and Labour "personalities" will outperform the polling.

    PBers need to be very watchful of placing too much emphasis, let alone cash, on the raw figures in these types of seats.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    Bob__Sykes said:

    One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?

    Or is that wishful thinking on my part?

    Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.

    Bob, take your head out of your posterior , she is another donkey. Only fantasists could have imagined the regional sockpuppets could win anything. Look at Mundell, I doubt he could run a bath, name any one of them that could get a real job, wipeout.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Genuine 3-way battle to come 2nd in Scotland now. I reckon Jo Swinson might just be worth a bet at 3/1 on this polling.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    Bob__Sykes said:

    One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?

    Or is that wishful thinking on my part?

    Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.

    If it's any consolation to you, they are in contention in at least three seats - the three border seats, and will therefore take or be a strong second in at least ten seats - the three borders, the five rural and coastal west highlands/Aberdeenshire and a couple others - perhaps an Edinburgh seat and perm one from the rest.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,455
    Bob__Sykes said:

    One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?

    Or is that wishful thinking on my part?

    Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.

    Bob, Ed sent Spud north to be devoured , no way he will waste time helping him.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Tykejohnno said:

    BenM said:

    One nation La-

    ...oh, er, wait.

    Yep,all those things labour threw at the tories,one nation,panda's and now we could have labour down in Scotland and even down in south of England(except London)

    One nation labour indeed - lol.

    Labour will largely be restricted to the urban north of England - laughable really
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tykejohnno said:

    BenM said:

    One nation La-

    ...oh, er, wait.

    Yep,all those things labour threw at the tories,one nation,panda's and now we could have labour down in Scotland and even down in south of England(except London)

    One nation labour indeed - lol.

    What are the Tories doing in Scotland ? or, the North East ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,259
    SNP available at 3.5 on Betfair for Glasgow NE. Decent price.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The Glasgow SW lead has supposedly increased by 18% in 3 months. I suspect both polls were outliers at either end of the range.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,937
    BBC news featuring the strong employment figures and at the same time showing David Cameron forceful rejection of the possibility of labour being held to 'hostage'' by the SNP demanding a 'ransom' of more borrowing, higher taxes, higher welfare and threat to the national security. Last night may well prove a 'pyrrhic' victory for Ed Miliband as the agenda turns to labour's relationship with the SNP and how they will dictate to RUK. I would think Lynton Crosby is sitting back thinking 'job done' as the simple message above will be repeated ad infinitum between today and 7th May. Noticed Nigel Farage was saying much the same and you can be certain Nick Clegg will follow. How this plays out will decide the election. (Just been reported the shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith says he favours the abolition of Trident)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Millsy said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    BenM said:

    One nation La-

    ...oh, er, wait.

    Yep,all those things labour threw at the tories,one nation,panda's and now we could have labour down in Scotland and even down in south of England(except London)

    One nation labour indeed - lol.

    Labour will largely be restricted to the urban north of England - laughable really
    Getting 270 seats in the urban North is a bit difficult !
This discussion has been closed.