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Ashcroft. SNP GAIN from CON
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale pic.twitter.com/5mFt9vew1X
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I guess I'm doing some further research tomorrow morning now.
But Calum and Antifrank tipsters of the year.
The Lib Dems could just hang on in Berwickshire.
Is that really an accurate reflection of these new polls?
Glad I'm short Kennedy. And what a sad way for his career to end.
SNP 21 points ahead.
Nutz.
I think what we will see in the runup to 2016 is people taking a hard look at how the mechanisms work and how best to vote on constituency and list to avoid wasted votes. It's not at all obvious to me whom the ensuing tactical voting would favour.
(Lord Ashcroft polled the seat last time with a 7% Lab lead.)
#Breaking Nine out of 12 journalists awaiting trial for paying public officials for scoops after Operation Elveden have their cases dropped
Tories main opposition to the SNP ;-)
Would have to win 100 seats in rUk.
Same polling company both times?
Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.
LOL.
A night worth being up for the whole thing.
But I can see how how Ed becomes PM.
Those bar charts show very little direct evidence of tactical voting against the SNP, so either it is pro SNP or is being swamped by pro-SNP tactical voting. ,
Will electorate figures be published for each constituency - and if so, when?
None of the polls is asking whether respondents are registered to vote. I think this is now probably Cameron's main potential upside - that far more young people are not registered compared to 2010.
Plus the generally very low level of interest amongst the public - as illustrated by the TV debate ratings. Low turnout must favour Con.
I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.
Where is looking good for the LD's?
And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32348363
Some people getting some nasty shocks for posting abuse on the internet.
Mr. 1000, I do wonder how the Lib Dems will fare if they're obliterated in Scotland and the south-west.
Just what on earth was the media smoking when they proclaimed Jim Murphy to be SLAB's saviour??
Apply two of those to the last Glasgow NE poll and it will be an SNP gain too. I reckon that the SNP will feel disappointed not to make a clean sweep of all 59 seats. I'm sure they will put a brave face on it if they fall three or four seats short.
By not registering they may well increase the turnout percentage, but make no other noticeable difference.
PS Kelly is not even Donkey level.
...oh, er, wait.
If there is a sea change against a party, then no one is immune from the wave.
Less than 10 ? The Libs will never enter a coalition with the Tories in this century ! They have been naïve !
Last set of Scottish Ashcroft polls Betfair Sportsbook only suspended the specific constituencies - the rest of Edinburgh was available to bet on for instance.
Or is that wishful thinking on my part?
Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.
What will be interesting, given that it's the Lib Dems and Labour who are suffering the demonstrable collapse in support and the Tory vote seems to be holding at ca 16-17%, is what happens swing wise in the SNP-Con straight fights from last time - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus and Banff and Buchan and perhaps Moray. Will there be a big swing here too to the SNP, or in the absence of strong Lab and Lib presence will the SNP just hold them on a small swing 'business as usual'?
And your answer is ... to be more right wing?
The man’s truly psychic..!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11507041/Jim-Murphy-predicts-big-and-late-swing-to-Scottish-Labour.html
One nation labour indeed - lol.
Actually, I'm expecting the Tories to keep a toehold, though still at Giant Panda levels (even if Labour crash to Red Panda levels). Those who live by the FPTP sword die by it.
However everyone with common sense knows that conservatives do not get votes in scotland, to some that didn't matter because they want Labour to lose seats not retain them.
In short, the media and the Tories supported Murphy not only because he is one of them but also because he was the most likely man to wipe out Labour in scotland.
It's a common trick in American or Australian politics to support the person who is most likely to lose to your guy (example: Romney).
However Lord A's half way house "your constituency" question doesn't get down to the core of incumbency which is a critical factor in LibDem seats but also high profile seats for other parties.
Farage, Galloway, Lucas as well as a raft of Con and Labour "personalities" will outperform the polling.
PBers need to be very watchful of placing too much emphasis, let alone cash, on the raw figures in these types of seats.