politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Popu
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I think we should hold out a little longer to see if Mike K's 81 UKIP seats pans out..!TheScreamingEagles said:We might as well award PB Toty to Calum and Antifrank now.
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Could the blue borders opt to stay in rUk ? A Maginot line running just below the central belt ?0
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Looks like Charlie Kennedy's Question Time appearance didn't go down that well.0
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Looks like both Alexanders will be out.0
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There are lots more sensible rightwingers who aren't with you which is of course why you're not looking at a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. Sensible right wingers are still with us.Alanbrooke said:
Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.Andrew said:Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)
Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......
People more obsessed with denying equal rights to gays than running the economy though ...
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If his MPs had to face the alternative of an election they'd accept it - and that is all you need under the Westminster system.Bob__Sykes said:
Yes. Because it would mean Cameron as PM and the Tories in Government.Tissue_Price said:
If Ed gets that many he'll be PM, no doubt. It's the lower range that's more interesting.Bob__Sykes said:
Not even the slippery eels that are the SNP could wriggle out of their cast iron "we will not support a Tory Govt under any circumstance" and "we will lock out David Cameron" assurances. If the LDs destroyed their reputation over the "no increase in tuition fees" u-turn, imagine what it would do for the Nats to put in place a Tory administration - preventing that seems to be the raison d'etre of the independence movement anyway.Tissue_Price said:
In such circumstances, Labour would be well advised not to vote the Queen's Speech down and change their leader. They could then bring the government down in the autumn. Unless of course Cameron had done a deal with Salmond in the meantime...Danny565 said:Been spending the last hour at work thinking about hung parliament permutations #saddo
The real nightmare scenario in terms of forming a new government is if the Tories are the largest party but WELL short of a majority (say, about 280 seats or less). In such a scenario, they wouldn't have the numbers to cobble together a majority since there's so few natural allies for them in parliament, but equally Labour would be seen to have no "moral authority" to lead a government if they are the second party by a distance. In that case I think an immediate second election would be unavoidable, regardless of the obstacles that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act technically pose.
They'll support Ed, and let him do what he wants on 34% on the vote and probably no more than 285-295 seats.
If Cameron basically gives the SNP carte blanche to run Scotland as a de facto nation state then are you telling me they'll refuse?
And on what authority or mandate could Cameron, even if he wanted to, give quasi-independence to Scotland? His MPs and the English would crucify him surely?0 -
Looks like the SNP are going to gain all seats in scotland apart from Shetlands and Berwickshire.0
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We're looking around the same amount of votes that we got last time and considerably more votes than we got under either Hague or Howard.Alanbrooke said:
There are lots more sensible rightwingers who aren't with you which is of course why you're not looking at a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. Sensible right wingers are still with us.Alanbrooke said:
Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.Andrew said:Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)
Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......
People more obsessed with denying equal rights to gays than running the economy though ...
Do I think we'd be better if we'd been persecuting gays? No.
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I can see why Jim Murphy was so popular with Scottish Tories now.0
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BarkingJohn_N said:
And what goodies might the SNP get from CON? Got to weigh that in the balance before deciding which way the balance tips.Bob__Sykes said:Not even the slippery eels that are the SNP could wriggle out of their cast iron "we will not support a Tory Govt under any circumstance" and "we will lock out David Cameron" assurances. If the LDs destroyed their reputation over the "no increase in tuition fees" u-turn, imagine what it would do for the Nats to put in place a Tory administration - preventing that seems to be the raison d'etre of the independence movement anyway.
They'll support Ed, and let him do what he wants on 34% on the vote and probably no more than 285-295 seats.
I can't see that CON would have much of a problem with EVEL or son-of-EVEL (because it's not likely to be as simple as EVEL) if the alternative is going into opposition.
Factor in that Salmond appears to have lost his marbles, saying things about star alignments and not doing a deal even if the SNP gets everything they want (sic).
Average prediction at the moment is that SNP support for LAB wouldn't put Miliband into No.10 without LD support. Current figures suggest two possibilities: CON-SNP or LAB-RAINBOW. (That's leaving aside the issue of maj or min government, which isn't the big issue - who does a deal with whom is the big issue.)0 -
Tykejohnno said:0 -
He. Was. In. A. Coalition.Alanbrooke said:
Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.Andrew said:Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)
Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......
Which of course I understand you get but don't forget some Tory backbenchers really are dense.0 -
Every extra Labour loss in Scotland makes it harder for Ed to become largest party. Any Tory helping out Murphy would be mad. Equally I cannot see Labour helping the Tories in DCT or RBS.0
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Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is probably even better for the Nats showing it to be Con Gain rather than SNP Gain.
Tactical voter mass confusion.
Tory tails will be up there, they'll believe Mundell can hang on too.0 -
I am finding SPIN interesting. Labour and Tories -not budging at all. Yet the minor parties are wobbling. Green and UKIP are at their lowest so far.0
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What likelihood would people place on the Liberal Democrats falling behind the DUP in number of MPs?
Polling this week suggests they could lose all their MPs in the South-West and Scotland, the traditional redoubts for the Liberal party. How low can they go?0 -
As a rule of thumb, every person PB fawns about being next Labour leader, ends out of parliament.Tykejohnno said:
Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft
Could tactical Tory votes save Jim Murphy? pic.twitter.com/ZOFtxVrcE7
Hopefully not,tories must give a anti labour message in Scotland,just like labour did with the tories.0 -
Right now that's a serious possibility. I can't see a single seat in Scotland now where Labour should be favourites. Their best shots to me look like Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill.TGOHF said:
Cons 2nd largest party in Scotland would be amusing.antifrank said:So, are Labour going to take any seats in Scotland at all?
Just look at the size of those Labour -> SNP swings.0 -
incredibly that is looking very conceivable! Only border areas and Shetland/Orkneys look capable of resisting the SNP surge. Perhaps Labour will want to back PR after all!Tykejohnno said:0 -
Well quite. Let the SNP wipe them out and plan for the New World Order with a right-wing party as UnOfficial Ops up there.felix said:
Every extra Labour loss in Scotland makes it harder for Ed to become largest party. Any Tory helping out Murphy would be mad. Equally I cannot see Labour helping the Tories in DCT or RBS.
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If that poll's accurate, it would appear that Sturgeon is Tamerlane to Miliband's Bayezid.
I wonder if he'd go mad being used as her footstool and carted about in a cage for her amusement.0 -
I'm not confident that the borders will be blue - the only votes left to squeeze against the SNP are Labour - I doubt they will vote blue.Brom said:
incredibly that is looking very conceivable! Only border areas and Shetland/Orkneys look capable of resisting the SNP surge. Perhaps Labour will want to back PR after all!Tykejohnno said:0 -
My Dad lives in DCT. He was planning on voting Greens as he didn't think there was any chance of Mundell being unseated. The first Ashcroft poll made him switch to SNP. Yes, that's right, my dad is responsible for the 2 points extra for the SNP.Pulpstar said:Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is probably even better for the Nats showing it to be Con Gain rather than SNP Gain.
Tactical voter mass confusion.
Tory tails will be up there, they'll believe Mundell can hang on too.
I suspect the same think is now going to happen BRS with people going SNP to keep the Con out.0 -
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New Thread0
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My SNP bet on RS&L is looking good. What a terribly sad way for Charlie to go.
Berwickshire is going to be interesting on the night :-)
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They have factories in Paisley and East Kilbride as wellTheWatcher said:
Bristol or Derby?SimonStClare said:
Good news indeed - I had just read the article a short while before you posted it and read that Rolls Royce currently employs 24,500 people in the UK. For the life of me I can't recall where RR are based. Any guesses without googling?JosiasJessop said:More good news:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-323477830 -
IF - there is a SLABberation and
IF - Dave is still PM
The dynamics of the Westminster Labour party are going to be fundamentally changed and the leadership contest could be wide open.0 -
Con being ahead in BRS is probably even better than SNP if it was to be say 1 pt for them. (Tactical muddying)Alistair said:
My Dad lives in DCT. He was planning on voting Greens as he didn't think there was any chance of Mundell being unseated. The first Ashcroft poll made him switch to SNP. Yes, that's right, my dad is responsible for the 2 points extra for the SNP.Pulpstar said:Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk is probably even better for the Nats showing it to be Con Gain rather than SNP Gain.
Tactical voter mass confusion.
Tory tails will be up there, they'll believe Mundell can hang on too.
I suspect the same think is now going to happen BRS with people going SNP to keep the Con out.
It'd mean I'd lose the panda bet but hey ho.
Con seat count anywhere between 0 and 3 still.0 -
You kid yourself this is all about the social issues. It's not. People's domestic plumbing arrangements interest me not a jot.Philip_Thompson said:
We're looking around the same amount of votes that we got last time and considerably more votes than we got under either Hague or Howard.Alanbrooke said:
There are lots more sensible rightwingers who aren't with you which is of course why you're not looking at a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. Sensible right wingers are still with us.Alanbrooke said:
Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.Andrew said:Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)
Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......
People more obsessed with denying equal rights to gays than running the economy though ...
Do I think we'd be better if we'd been persecuting gays? No.
The issue as we've seen on several thread is Cameron has fked up his so called de-tox. Instead of tackling wealth and privelege where there were a damned sight more votes he tackled issuesd which were of little interest to most voters. As a result he not only can't aspire to a majority but he's going need some luck to stay as PM.
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Nobody made him go in to a coalition he chose to.TOPPING said:
He. Was. In. A. Coalition.Alanbrooke said:
Not really the problem is Cameron told his right wing to sod off and they did.Andrew said:Unemployment dropping like a stone, growth prospects good, widespread international praise for Britain's economic performance, while the rest of Europe teeters. It's basically a total vindication for the coalition's economic performance, a contrast to Miliband's stated preference (the Hollande approach)
Problem for them though, it's all coming a bit late in the day ......
Which of course I understand you get but don't forget some Tory backbenchers really are dense.0 -
Wow. SNP clean sweep in the offing.0
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The excruciating thing for Labour is that none of these are close, the two Tory-inclined seats may or may not end up blue on the day but it looks like a foregone conclusion in most of the other ones0
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I got to about 13 on the prediction game. What are the odds on less than 10?OblitusSumMe said:What likelihood would people place on the Liberal Democrats falling behind the DUP in number of MPs?
Polling this week suggests they could lose all their MPs in the South-West and Scotland, the traditional redoubts for the Liberal party. How low can they go?0 -
New Thread0
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Very difficult to get a majority in that parliament, the way its voting system was fiddled by Mr Dewar's Labour Party to stop that ever happening. It's almost certainly designed purposely to give the Labour Party (and the Tories and LDs incidentally) the more list seats the more they lose in the first round.SeanT said:
Not me. As regular pb-ers know, I predictedchestnut said:
I don't think Lib and Lab quite realised how seismic an event it would be.John_N said:CON, LAB and even LD had a chance to show inspired leadership as soon as the indyref result came in. I mean actually attending to the issue of improving the Union. They could have started a big British-level conversation (I don't mean wonks-only), looking towards a new settlement, perhaps even to be put to people in simultaneous referendums in each of the Union's four constituent parts. None of the party leaderships had the gumption.
With 11 and 41 MPs 'no-change' must have looked pretty attractive in mid-September.
I can recall people on here dismissing the first SNP sub-samples that started to come through at the end of September 2014 as polling aberrations.
1. a fairly narrow NO win
2. a Salmond resignation (tho I got the timing wrong)
3. a very big consolation vote for the Nats in the GE
... and I predicted this about three days BEFORE the indyref. Here. On Ye PB.COM.
FWIW here's my next Scottish soothsaying: the Nats will romp home in May (as we all know), though a few Labour incumbents might prove stickier than expected (hence my prediction of a narrow Miliband plurality, despite Scots carnage).
HOWEVER I reckon Sturgeon will find Holyrood 2016 much harder going. By then Scotland will have considerable new fiscal powers, so Scottish voters will be deciding how much tax they want to give Nicola. That will sober them up. Moreover, polls show that most Scots DON'T want another referendum yet (and if they got one, they'd probably vote NO again).
The SNP's position will therefore be much more uncomfortable in 2016, as compared to being simply and easily anti-Tory in London in 2015.
I seriously doubt Sturgeon will get an overall majority in the next Holyrood elex.
I think what we will see in the runup to 2016 is people taking a hard look at how the mechanisms work and how best to vote on constituency and list to avoid wasted votes. It's not at all obvious to me whom the ensuing tactical voting would favour.
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Is Willie Bain in Glasgow NE going to be the only Labour MP left?
(Lord Ashcroft polled the seat last time with a 7% Lab lead.)0 -
***** Betting Post *****
SkyBet's 1.91 (aka 10/11) on the SNP winning >43.5 seats looks great value. I doubt these odds will be around for long.
DYOR.0 -
A further swing on its own is not surprising but if you compare with 2010, this is truly astonishing:
Glasgow SW: 2010 - Lab 63%, SNP 16%, Ashcroft poll - Lab 34%, SNP 55%
E Renfrewshire: 2010 - Lab 51%, SNP 9% (in 4th place!), Ashcroft poll -Lab 31%, SNP 40%
It's almost like a by-election swing but at a general election across a whole nation.
Who would have predicted this 5 years ago? Who would have predicted it even 2 years ago?0 -
BBC news featuring today's strong employment figures and at the same time showing David Cameron forceful rejection of the possibility of labour being held 'hostage' by the SNP demanding a 'ransom' of more borrowing, higher taxes, higher welfare and threat to national security. Last night might prove to have been 'pyrrhic' victory for Ed Miliband as the agenda has turned to the Scottish question and how the SNP will dictate to the RUK. It is also a simple narrative that the conservatives will report ad infinitum right up to the 7th May0
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Dumfries & Galloway might be their best betantifrank said:
Right now that's a serious possibility. I can't see a single seat in Scotland now where Labour should be favourites. Their best shots to me look like Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill.TGOHF said:
Cons 2nd largest party in Scotland would be amusing.antifrank said:So, are Labour going to take any seats in Scotland at all?
Just look at the size of those Labour -> SNP swings.0 -
To fit the latest Ashcroft polls, I have had to change my assumption about the % of 2010 Lab voters switching to SNP from 33% to 45%. My LD and Con assumptions fit fairly well.
But the consequence is that LD lose Ross to SNP because of SNP pickup of Lab voters.
LD hold Berwickshire from Con by 300 votes.
Overall, LD 2, SNP 57, Con 0, Lab 00 -
Apols if already posted, just seen this on Facebook - Banksy has done UKIP http://i1.wp.com/voxpoliticalonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/150416banksyUKIP.jpg0
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I love Banksy but he seems to be sick of both UKIP and the national flag.JonnyJimmy said:Apols if already posted, just seen this on Facebook - Banksy has done UKIP http://i1.wp.com/voxpoliticalonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/150416banksyUKIP.jpg
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Woof woof!malcolmg said:
BarkingJohn_N said:
And what goodies might the SNP get from CON? Got to weigh that in the balance before deciding which way the balance tips.Bob__Sykes said:Not even the slippery eels that are the SNP could wriggle out of their cast iron "we will not support a Tory Govt under any circumstance" and "we will lock out David Cameron" assurances. If the LDs destroyed their reputation over the "no increase in tuition fees" u-turn, imagine what it would do for the Nats to put in place a Tory administration - preventing that seems to be the raison d'etre of the independence movement anyway.
They'll support Ed, and let him do what he wants on 34% on the vote and probably no more than 285-295 seats.
I can't see that CON would have much of a problem with EVEL or son-of-EVEL (because it's not likely to be as simple as EVEL) if the alternative is going into opposition.
Factor in that Salmond appears to have lost his marbles, saying things about star alignments and not doing a deal even if the SNP gets everything they want (sic).
Average prediction at the moment is that SNP support for LAB wouldn't put Miliband into No.10 without LD support. Current figures suggest two possibilities: CON-SNP or LAB-RAINBOW. (That's leaving aside the issue of maj or min government, which isn't the big issue - who does a deal with whom is the big issue.)
Thanks for the kind thoughts, but if the seats go as the average PB prediction currently indicates, what's the best offer you think Cameron could make to the SNP?
And what alternative to CON-SNP or LAB-RAINBOW would there be?
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on these matters.
There's a lot of good sense and experience here on PB, but this is politics and pre-election promises go out of the window as soon as the votes are in. A week is a long time. Of course CON could discuss a deal with SNP. If the SNP could deal only with LAB, they'd be giving up their strength. Play one lot of Sassenachs against the other. If it's a hung parliament, then no-one in the post-election discussion will give a toss about Holyrood next year. They'll concentrate on getting a result in today's match.
Everybody knew that once the LD had played second fiddle to CON for 5 years, they'd lose loads of seats because people would tire of seeing their ugly smarmy gobs. That didn't stop them. The hell with the long game in politics. Scotland's never going to be independent. Similarly, internal British politics will never bring about a referendum on Brexit. If such a referendum ever happens, it'll be because the EU is clearly on its way to breakup and Britgov calls for an Out vote. And that'll be determined mainly outside Britain. Like if Le Pen wins the Elysée in 2017, which is more probable than many pundits think.0 -
Barnesian said:
To fit the latest Ashcroft polls, I have had to change my assumption about the % of 2010 Lab voters switching to SNP from 33% to 45%. My LD and Con assumptions fit fairly well.
But the consequence is that LD lose Ross to SNP because of SNP pickup of Lab voters.
LD hold Berwickshire from Con by 300 votes.
Overall, LD 2, SNP 57, Con 0, Lab 00
