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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Popu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Populus poll
The event will be ticket only from 10pm when polls close (the pub will be open to the public that day from 5pm however). The cost is £15 and that includes tea and coffee, mineral water and some snacks. The bar with extensive range of real ale, craft beer and all the rest will be open all night. The large HD screen is visible from every spot in the bar. We will show BBC coverage.
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Edit: I hope everyone enjoys themselves on what promises to be a rather interesting and unpredictable election night.
Full Time Workers 824 (weight up to to 901)
Private/HA rentals 481 (weight down to 400)
Council rentals 118 (weight up to 287)
Lot of adjusting going on.
Don't get me started on how interesting it's going to be - Steve Davis is "interesting", a Ghirardelli hot fudge ice cream sundae paid out of winnings on the Las Vegas Strip is more interesting in my view.
Also what's the mobile coverage like for o2 and Three?
Some of us need the interweb for betting and writing PB threads.
A rather grand title for what sounds like a good old traditional lock-in to me..!
[edit] - well done to the organisers of the event, hope it proves popular.
They got 30% last time. My modelling had them on 13.5% (even that was only enough to save Yeovil, Brecon, Thornbury, Ceredigion & Bristol West).
The most recent subsamples from Populus are
9% - 6% - 10% - 11% - 14% - 11%
Looks like rcs may be calling this correctly...
For example, in the north east there is a lump of 24% that voted LD but they only have 2 seats up there. Imagine Labour getting most of the votes and maybe one of the seats. The same thing can happen in the west midlands where the Lib Dems got 21% and 2 seats, and the east midlands where they got 21% and ZERO seats, and Yorkshire where they got 23% and 3 seats. Labour could pick up all the votes and seats in these areas, which would add circa 9% to their national vote tally and only 7 seats.
but as TSE said - what's the wifi/mobile network coverage like?
They have someone from the Socialist party on and brought up the twitter handle https://twitter.com/official_mrlp
We can assume that incumbents will outperform these figures, however.
I had all the others in my prediction as staying with LDs but I live in Thornbury and Yate and we have been bombarded by leaflets from the Tory over the last twelve months. Steve Webb the lib dem is very highly thought of locally from the people I have spoken to and should get back in.
Should be a rocking good do.
I would love to, but sadly I can't make it happen.
Dave 2.06
No wonder DH thinks Tories are walking the best campaign!!
Right in the middle of the Cleggasm.
On the 17th of April 2010, ICM had Con 33, Lab 28, LD 30
Sorry to miss this one in London: it will be a thrilling and exciting night!
Bristol West strikes me as the one seat where Labour could benefit from piss poor student registration actually.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/
''Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading''
According to the (admittedly desperate) LD Voice, the Tories -
over performed UNS in 2010
over performed in 2005
under performed in 2001
and
massively under performed in 1997.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/uniform-national-swing-2010-19644.html
In 2010 they got 14 more seats than UNS (despite some calling the campaign and Cameron rubbish).
Looking at being optimistic then on the same %age of over performance in seats as 2005 that would be about +18ish seats to be added back to the projected loss.
I'm sure the stats and manipulation of mine is quite useless but if you are betting I thought I would try to confuse you... :-)
BTW
the once heavily discussed 'unwinding' of the '97 anti tory LD vote does not get a mention these days. Is it still there??
In 1997 they got over 60% more seats than UNS suggested.
The Mid and West Wales LD subsample has been 12-14% recently.
That's about 40,000 votes spread across 8 seats incl, 2 LD holds (Brecon/Ceredigion)
Those two LD defences got 38,000 alone in 2010, and there were nearly 13,000 in Montgomeryshire. The total vote was c.75,000 across the eight seats in 2010.
It is a meaningless gesture in any case, it will do nothing to stop the core problem of nepotism which is what the internship problem is based on.
As well as the "posh kid" now earning a basic wage, they will be eligible for Tax Credits and Housing Benefit (assuming Daddy has sensibly placed the property bought for Junior/Princess into being held in a shell company).
Nice wealth transfer for Labour to the privileged. Par for the course.
re the above, looking at the ITV/YG poll welsh poll, the mid and west wales sub-samples nos for both the Libs and Plaid are pretty poor given that these are heartland areas for both parties (I know caveats apply to sub-samples..)
Assuming they cover montgomery, brecon, ceredigion, pembroke, 2 carmarthen and llanelli seats then relative figs are:
Party,2010,poll
Cons,30,28
Libs,26,14
Labour,23,29
Plaid,18,14
UKIP,3,11
I think
libs wil just hold ceredigion (as the any one but Plaid vote will coalesce around them), but Brecon looks likley to go tory
Labour in Llanelli at 1/8 looks nailed on
both Carmarthen seats could be in play?
cheers
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1356469/Cash-internships-Tory-backers-pay-2k-time-buy-children-work-experience.html
Unpaid internships seem madness. It's the right thing to do. Although the law would have to be well written to prevent further abuses.
Those businesses with no interest in 'Class' and family wealth will continue to give opportunities to those children from less well off backgrounds, providing they can afford to pay interns, whilst the remainder will carry on as normal or simply not bother at all.
(Didn't you land your City job through a family connection BTW?)
40% probability Labour propped up by SNP as next Gov't.
30% probability Con largest party, Ed PM
80% probability Ed PM
According to them.
They had p.o.p. / final (deviation)
Labour 26.9 / 29% / +2.1
Con 32.5 / 36.1/ +3.6
LD 30.4 / 23 / -8.4
DYOC
I know no-one at the Guardian. Or at any other newspaper, come to that.
Will this proposal help or hinder him?
It's a start but unscrambling a cosy nepotistic world is going to take more than this.
I would be even more impressed if Milliband were to annouce today that:-
(a) no Labour MP will have anyone working for them on a zero hours contract;
(b) all applications to work with them or the Labour party or any of their associated think tanks will be advertised openly in a rage of publications (not just the Guardian);
(c) all those who know or have any sort of personal or professional relationship with past or present MPs will need to declare this in advance; and
(d) there will be an annual published report of all those working for the Labour party, how many applications there were and how many of those who applied declared an interest under (c).
Then we could see whether they really mean what they say.
Yeah, I got lucky. My parents were hosting a party and I impressed one of my dad's old friends with a neat bit of prediction. It is sad that I would not be in the industry without that because I obviously have the skills to be an analyst, I have proven it time and again at work, but without that connection I would still be in the wrong job. Most people don't have that opening and by shutting off internships to families that have money more people would not get that opening.
Yes I'm sure some middle class kids would benefit where they wouldn't previously, but if that is the price of making sure the industry is open to everyone then so be it.
That's gotta hurt.
All society works in this way, it is always who you know even in things like the unions, charities and the Labour party. They are all stuffed with a left wing elite with a few usurpers.
@SeanT @MaxPB
So what will be the difference between volunteers and unpaid interns?
You may like the idea, but in practice it will be another rule change that ends up with perverse results. Like thinking you can just press a button and freeze energy prices.
www.youtube.com/user/polstudiesassoc1/videos
In! In! In!
It makes you wonder why they bother polling....
Otherwise, much as I like the idea as an attempt to deal with a real issue, it will be another case of "Do what I say, not what I do".
Telegraph: Sturgeon Offer to Miliband: I'll make you PM
Times: Join me or you'll pay, Sturgeon tells Labour
Guardian: Miliband tells Sturgeon: I won't do a deal with you
Mirror: Tories too Right Wing to win
Daily Mail (inside): Red Ed would put a million back on dole, says Cameron
The current Tory party just doesn't think like that because it is infected with people who never had to do the hard yards. That is why I hope Sajid Javid gets in as leader, he seems to know where it is at.
My kids schools were always keen for students to do a week or a fortnight working in a company. It was a total hassle to get them placed. If you're now asking they get paid on top for work experience it will work against the schools.