politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Com
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This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW EnglandGIN1138 said:
It has but I don't think we're discussing it.AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/
Move along. Move along.
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!0 -
FU Yes, not bad some good sketches of Farage as stand up comedian and Ed M trying to toughen up for tomorrow's debate with Yvette C and Ed B0
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Heart of stone needed to read this sad tale...
Labour Uncut@LabourUncut·6m6 minutes ago
The Ukip meltdown has begun http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/04/15/the-ukip-meltdown-has-begun/#more-19564 …0 -
Love the presentation, except that the orangey-yellow for the LD score is almost unreadable against the grey background. Are you going to incorporate this ComRes into your model?ukelect said:
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW EnglandGIN1138 said:
It has but I don't think we're discussing it.AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/
Move along. Move along.
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!0 -
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’0
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SunPolitics: Ukip election blunder bus http://t.co/13rCSSxPMG http://t.co/aUDVTcpgsAScrapheap_as_was said:Heart of stone needed to read this sad tale...
Labour Uncut@LabourUncut·6m6 minutes ago
The Ukip meltdown has begun http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/04/15/the-ukip-meltdown-has-begun/#more-19564 …0 -
This ComRes poll may well be consistent with Ashcroft.SMukesh said:
Ashcroft`s marginal polling probably gives them hope.Danny565 said:Yikes, just seen that South West poll. If that's even close to accurate then even 20 seats for the Lib Dems looks like a stretch.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/
If we consider Ashcroft's constituency polls have a margin of error of +/-5% on the party voteshares, then the SW constituency with the largest Lib Dem lead (St. Ives, at 3%) is well within it.
In fact, the only "safe" seats in the SW region look to be Thornbury & Yate, Yeovil, Cheltenham and Bath.
And I have grave doubts about the last two, which is why I've bet on the Tories in both.0 -
Interesting.ukelect said:
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW EnglandGIN1138 said:
It has but I don't think we're discussing it.AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/
Move along. Move along.
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.0 -
Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed0 -
Are these probabilities reliable for the L.Dems to survive in a particular seat?john_zims said:@RobD
'Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!'
So much for all that incumbency bullet proof stuff.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html
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Oh lol.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.0 -
got a chance in scotland ....SMukesh said:
Interesting.ukelect said:
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW EnglandGIN1138 said:
It has but I don't think we're discussing it.AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/
Move along. Move along.
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.0 -
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
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Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.0 -
I went to a hustings in which the labour candidate was so feeble, she wasnt able to give a response to a simple question (it wasnt even a question, just a bit of a complaint about not being able to claim it back anymore) about SSP (statutory sick pay), despite been the last person on the panel to answer the question, thereby having listened to four other candidates give concise intelligent responses. She said she would email the person concerned afterwards.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
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Personally I thought there was very little to disagree with, very difficult for any sensible person to argue with any of it.Dair said:
Oh lol.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.0 -
I'm not sure it does.AndyJS said:
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.RobD said:
Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/0 -
Those are last nights numbersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.0 -
!
In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/OthersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.0 -
Deletion.0
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Nothing unusual in party members interpreting things most positively for their party, though if we want to pick it apart, he does not say 'widely' acclaimed. I'm sure some people will acclaim anything, for any party. If UKIP are like a cult, that aspect is not part of it anymore than any other party.Dair said:
Oh lol.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.0 -
Ah sorry everybodyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Those are last nights numbersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.0 -
I thought it pretty decent. In terms of layout and presentation I thought it was the best, its stock photos showed some distinction from the others at least by giving focus to a range of the party's MEPs and spokespeople, and maybe I was suffering from manifesto fatigue (and dread, as I had the LD one still to go, which is double the size of the others), but nothing jumped out at me as something opponents could jump on with any wide success.nigel4england said:
Personally I thought there was very little to disagree with, very difficult for any sensible person to argue with any of it.Dair said:
Oh lol.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.0 -
I do hope and pray the dividend quote is untrue or we all are truly stuffed if he's at the helm and that clueless. I will believe it untrue even of crap Ed till proved otherwise, ( it's worrying it even sounds plausible!).FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
On a wider point though beyond business, if he's in a minority and only has ( say ) 270 MP's to form a Govt from, and given there's more than a fair few old buffers from the Blair/ Brown years still hanging around, and you have "Sir Humphrey Appleby's maxim" that as a third are past it, a third too green, and there's "no choice at all ", Ed might have even less real "choice" than almost any PM before. Ministerial quality may get a bit thin? Same could apply to Cameron too.0 -
YouGov has been good for Lab the last few days - whereas other polls haven't shown the same movement.
Another good YouGov for Lab tonight and it will start to look as if it's not random variation - ie as far as YouGov is concerned.0 -
I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure it does.AndyJS said:
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.RobD said:
Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/0 -
Prof Rallings on ITV News, if this poll is repeated across the country Lib Dems could be down to single figures...0
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Think they've cottoned on people were peeking early!Saltire said:
Ah sorry everybodyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Those are last nights numbersSaltire said:
TheFrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
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Where are you seeing that?Saltire said:!
In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/OthersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.
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Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.Scott_P said:Leadership bid...
@politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj0 -
Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).0
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Last nights poll on you gov/centreGIN1138 said:
Where are you seeing that?Saltire said:!
In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/OthersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.0 -
Mahoosive self awareness fail.Dair said:
Oh lol.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.0 -
I'm certainly considering it. At the very least I think I need to consider how the LibDem vote in the SW may have devolved since the earlier Ashcroft polls in the region.Tissue_Price said:
Love the presentation, except that the orangey-yellow for the LD score is almost unreadable against the grey background. Are you going to incorporate this ComRes into your model?ukelect said:
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW EnglandGIN1138 said:
It has but I don't think we're discussing it.AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/
Move along. Move along.
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!0 -
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??Cyclefree said:
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
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YouGov tonight -
If I were *cough* a betting man, I'd go for an unchanged Lab 35% Con 33%, after all YG never seems to alter by more more than 1% from night to night and often not at all. Whispering this quietly, but their polls have become ever so slightly boring.
Perhaps we'll see some fun and games from them during the last three weeks of the GE campaign.0 -
Correct.JGC said:
I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure it does.AndyJS said:
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.RobD said:
Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/0 -
Gone down well or badly, it seems like very little can shake the polling by more than a point or two. After a few slender Labour leads we might have been due a tie or slender Tory leader anyway, so maybe a good night will have then 3 up or something, but by tomorrow we'll be back where we've been for weeks I would guess.Danny565 said:Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
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“I wouldn’t want to do it permanently because, as I said, I would like to see the tax burden as low as possible,” Mr Umunna said in an interview with the New Statesman.Danny565 said:
Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.Scott_P said:Leadership bid...
@politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj
“I don’t believe that you tax for the sake of taxing, you tax to fund public services and, currently, to reduce our deficit and our debt.”
Sounds almost Tory.0 -
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed0 -
The question asks In your constituency, thinking about yr mp thoJGC said:
I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure it does.AndyJS said:
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.RobD said:
Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!AndyJS said:Has this been flagged up?
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/0 -
If they are wiped out in the SW as well as Scotland there isn't much left to defend.Scott_P said:Prof Rallings on ITV News, if this poll is repeated across the country Lib Dems could be down to single figures...
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Here: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centreGIN1138 said:
Where are you seeing that?Saltire said:!
In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/OthersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.
But it's yesterday's figures.0 -
Tom-Newton-Whatsit hasn't been hinting at anything exciting, so I'm expecting more of the same...Danny565 said:Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
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Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.TheWatcher said:
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?0 -
He'd have had to use the Dartford Tunnel - maybe expenses are tight?TheWatcher said:
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed0 -
The last labour leader to win a majority advocating top levels of income tax over 40% was Harold Wilson in 1964.Danny565 said:
Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.Scott_P said:Leadership bid...
@politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj0 -
And it's for exactly the same reason that MPs should not be able to claim either council tax - or any other sort of tax, including the mansion tax - on expenses. We can't. Neither should they.welshowl said:
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??Cyclefree said:
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
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The idea that Lab could come close to the number of SW MPs as the LDs must be pretty terrifying for the still pretty decent number of LD councilors across the region, should Lab become the natural party of opposition to local Tories.0
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I was thinking a Con lead earlier today, but betfair and the TND factor suggest not.GIN1138 said:
Tom-Newton-Whatsit hasn't been hinting at anything exciting, so I'm expecting more of the same...Danny565 said:Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
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Nick made a complete tit of himself when Osborne announced his pension changes in the 2014 budget, he admitted he has no idea how pensions work.welshowl said:
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??Cyclefree said:
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
I've never voted Tory in my life but I would if I lived in Broxtowe0 -
Hear hear.welshowl said:
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??Cyclefree said:
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.0 -
There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!chestnut said:
Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.Monksfield said:I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;
Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.0 -
Those parties couldn't fit all their MPs in a phone box.KentRising said:
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.TheWatcher said:
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?0 -
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Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.0 -
Most Cabinet, and Shadow Cabinet would have been at their respective launches.KentRising said:
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.TheWatcher said:
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
It's funny that UKIPs 2 MPs couldn't make it to their own manifesto unveiling, in spite of the fact that the venue is on the direct route between their constituencies. .0 -
It's the last bolt the Tories had left to fire, and I think they made their electoral policy pitch as good as they could, but I don't think the manifesto coverage (and the Tories did get pretty much a full newscycle leading with it) will do much to voting intentions.Danny565 said:Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
It might aide motivation and turnout.0 -
Thx.Casino_Royale said:
Here: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centreGIN1138 said:
Where are you seeing that?Saltire said:!
In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/OthersSaltire said:
Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...FrancisUrquhart said:So YouGov what do we think?
I am guessing little real change, 35/34.
But it's yesterday's figures.
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The green Party managed to get 100% of their MPs to their manifesto launchKentRising said:Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
UKIP managed 0%
Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all did better than that...0 -
Rochester and Strood is one that a wannabe majority government might have won. (I know there have been boundary changes since the Blair years; I don't think a Lab Maj govt would win R&S, but a by-election is different).Monksfield said:
There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!chestnut said:
Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.Monksfield said:I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;
Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.0 -
Corby!Monksfield said:
There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!chestnut said:
Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.Monksfield said:I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;
Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.0 -
Source? I thought not.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
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I don't think that's an entirely fair comparison. Certainly there is a lot of wishing to see division in UKIP as it benefits the big two if UKIP lose momentum, but when you only have two MPs, and you are seeking to build upon them, they are a more valuable resource than individual Lab or Con MPs, and it has been a little surprising they do not appear to have had a bigger profile lately.KentRising said:
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.TheWatcher said:
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.Scrapheap_as_was said:Reassuring - the TPD is happy.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
I feel I can say that fairly given my praise of the manifesto's promotion of figures beyond Farage and the two MPs. It is still a little surprising not to see more of them.0 -
I've been trying to follow the logic of this statement - it's a curious one ..... a bit like that guess the bithday puzzle which has been sweeping the net over the past 48hrs.Pulpstar said:
A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.FrankBooth said:I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.
All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?0 -
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No splash on the poll #sunkremlinologyTheScreamingEagles said:Kitchens are back
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No good for hardworking singletonsTheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.0 -
Really, not this again...The Sun (and Mirror) used to be really good at digging up proper dirt.TheScreamingEagles said:Kitchens are back
https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/588452558060027904
BTW, I noticed somehow the Mirror was awarded newspaper of the year and the Rant on Sunday, the Sunday paper of the year...0 -
Dave can't win here...
@MSmithsonPB: For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford0 -
OGH has turned at last - welcome to pbtory land?
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·15 secs15 seconds ago
For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford0 -
These must be difficult times for those presumably aberrant people who like to pick up a paper generally but who are not deeply committed to the political stances they are now pushing with the subtlety of an elephant trying to sneak through a bathroom window.SMukesh said:I wonder who the Mirror is supporting...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-322971540 -
Doh - that was ages ago! I'd forgotten how little time it took for Cameroon wannabe Louise to get bored and head for Broadway*.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Corby!Monksfield said:
There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!chestnut said:
Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.Monksfield said:I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;
Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.
*not the cotswold one0 -
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But it works for you too, Sunil. You'll find that the ladies will be even keener now they know that 30 hours free childcare is merely 3 years, 9 months & 5 minutes away.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No good for hardworking singletonsTheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.0 -
Yeppeter_from_putney said:
I've been trying to follow the logic of this statement - it's a curious one ..... a bit like that guess the bithday puzzle which has been sweeping the net over the past 48hrs.Pulpstar said:
A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.FrankBooth said:I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.
All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?0 -
Something he has got completely right I see.
Nick Clegg tells @BBCAllegra that he will not take a departmental role in next parliament
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-322971540 -
It is the most sensible thing to come from a Labour front bencher during the campaign. High taxes are economically damaging and will reduce tax yield over the long term. What we need is an economy that generates enough revenue to pay for public services and keep the government budget in balance. Overtaxing the country for the sake of an ideology is bad for all of us. Blair understood this, I fear that Ed doesn't, he seems to be dogmatically attached to higher taxes. Stuff like the attack on non-doms, politically clever, economically poor. That special status we have compared to the rest of the world is beneficial for our economy. Getting rid of it is not going to help us close the deficit, if anything it will open it up as tax receipts from the global super rich start to fall. Who then is going to pay for the NHS? We have 50-60,000 super high net worth individuals paying billions in tax that would not otherwise be in the country. Making their status here questionable is not something I would want to put into question.Danny565 said:
Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.Scott_P said:Leadership bid...
@politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj0 -
Blimey, give him a chance.Monksfield said:
Source? I thought not.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
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But does it name the candidate?Scott_P said:Dave can't win here...
@MSmithsonPB: For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford0 -
Trying to make babies is good for hardworking singletons.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No good for hardworking singletonsTheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.0 -
I believe Staines has a load of dirt to do with the story. She was threatening to sue him for tweeting about it a couple of weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Emily Thornberry is back
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/5884532995417006080 -
I do wonder:Who are you voting for ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No good for hardworking singletonsTheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.0 -
He's voting Tory.SMukesh said:
I do wonder:Who are you voting for ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
No good for hardworking singletonsTheScreamingEagles said:Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.0 -
How many times can this story run? Had it had front page coverage when it did before? Today's politicians are too boring and sensible, they don't give as many chances for character assassination as they used to I guess.TheScreamingEagles said:Kitchens are back
htps://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/5884525580600279040 -
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0
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Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 6s 6 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
"Crisis, what crisis?" Most of the great political quotes weren't actually said. The point about this one, is that he could have said it.Monksfield said:
Source? I thought not.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
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LAB - 35% (-) CON - 34% (+1) UKIP - 13% (-) LDEM - 8% (-) GRN - 5% (-)
Manifesto surge, eh?0 -
Tonights YG - EICIPM0
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It was in an article linked below by funny enough a Labour supporting poster..Monksfield said:
Source? I thought not.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9494602/ed-miliband-could-still-win-heres-what-would-happen-next/0 -
And that is all that matters? Style over substance?Scott_P said:
The green Party managed to get 100% of their MPs to their manifesto launchKentRising said:Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
UKIP managed 0%
Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all did better than that...
I for one was very impressed with the UKIP manifesto, content matters not how many party figures were there.0 -
Looks like I guessed it right on YouGov :-)0
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Seems pretty sound, given his reputation. Another backbench Tory might be far too rebellious to play ball, jeopardizing things, without even considering increasing the number of Tory friendly MPs in the LD ranks.peter_from_putney said:
All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition.Pulpstar said:
A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.FrankBooth said:I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.
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