"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
Love the presentation, except that the orangey-yellow for the LD score is almost unreadable against the grey background. Are you going to incorporate this ComRes into your model?
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
This ComRes poll may well be consistent with Ashcroft.
If we consider Ashcroft's constituency polls have a margin of error of +/-5% on the party voteshares, then the SW constituency with the largest Lib Dem lead (St. Ives, at 3%) is well within it.
In fact, the only "safe" seats in the SW region look to be Thornbury & Yate, Yeovil, Cheltenham and Bath.
And I have grave doubts about the last two, which is why I've bet on the Tories in both.
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
Interesting.
South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Oh lol.
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
Interesting.
South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
I went to a hustings in which the labour candidate was so feeble, she wasnt able to give a response to a simple question (it wasnt even a question, just a bit of a complaint about not being able to claim it back anymore) about SSP (statutory sick pay), despite been the last person on the panel to answer the question, thereby having listened to four other candidates give concise intelligent responses. She said she would email the person concerned afterwards.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Oh lol.
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
Personally I thought there was very little to disagree with, very difficult for any sensible person to argue with any of it.
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Oh lol.
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
Nothing unusual in party members interpreting things most positively for their party, though if we want to pick it apart, he does not say 'widely' acclaimed. I'm sure some people will acclaim anything, for any party. If UKIP are like a cult, that aspect is not part of it anymore than any other party.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Oh lol.
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
Personally I thought there was very little to disagree with, very difficult for any sensible person to argue with any of it.
I thought it pretty decent. In terms of layout and presentation I thought it was the best, its stock photos showed some distinction from the others at least by giving focus to a range of the party's MEPs and spokespeople, and maybe I was suffering from manifesto fatigue (and dread, as I had the LD one still to go, which is double the size of the others), but nothing jumped out at me as something opponents could jump on with any wide success.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
I do hope and pray the dividend quote is untrue or we all are truly stuffed if he's at the helm and that clueless. I will believe it untrue even of crap Ed till proved otherwise, ( it's worrying it even sounds plausible!).
On a wider point though beyond business, if he's in a minority and only has ( say ) 270 MP's to form a Govt from, and given there's more than a fair few old buffers from the Blair/ Brown years still hanging around, and you have "Sir Humphrey Appleby's maxim" that as a third are past it, a third too green, and there's "no choice at all ", Ed might have even less real "choice" than almost any PM before. Ministerial quality may get a bit thin? Same could apply to Cameron too.
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
I'm not sure it does.
I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.
Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
Oh lol.
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."
This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
Love the presentation, except that the orangey-yellow for the LD score is almost unreadable against the grey background. Are you going to incorporate this ComRes into your model?
I'm certainly considering it. At the very least I think I need to consider how the LibDem vote in the SW may have devolved since the earlier Ashcroft polls in the region.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
If I were *cough* a betting man, I'd go for an unchanged Lab 35% Con 33%, after all YG never seems to alter by more more than 1% from night to night and often not at all. Whispering this quietly, but their polls have become ever so slightly boring. Perhaps we'll see some fun and games from them during the last three weeks of the GE campaign.
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
I'm not sure it does.
I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.
Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
Gone down well or badly, it seems like very little can shake the polling by more than a point or two. After a few slender Labour leads we might have been due a tie or slender Tory leader anyway, so maybe a good night will have then 3 up or something, but by tomorrow we'll be back where we've been for weeks I would guess.
Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.
“I wouldn’t want to do it permanently because, as I said, I would like to see the tax burden as low as possible,” Mr Umunna said in an interview with the New Statesman.
“I don’t believe that you tax for the sake of taxing, you tax to fund public services and, currently, to reduce our deficit and our debt.”
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
[i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]
Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
I'm not sure it does.
I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.
The question asks In your constituency, thinking about yr mp tho
Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
Tom-Newton-Whatsit hasn't been hinting at anything exciting, so I'm expecting more of the same...
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
He'd have had to use the Dartford Tunnel - maybe expenses are tight?
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
And it's for exactly the same reason that MPs should not be able to claim either council tax - or any other sort of tax, including the mansion tax - on expenses. We can't. Neither should they.
The idea that Lab could come close to the number of SW MPs as the LDs must be pretty terrifying for the still pretty decent number of LD councilors across the region, should Lab become the natural party of opposition to local Tories.
Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
Tom-Newton-Whatsit hasn't been hinting at anything exciting, so I'm expecting more of the same...
I was thinking a Con lead earlier today, but betfair and the TND factor suggest not.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
Nick made a complete tit of himself when Osborne announced his pension changes in the 2014 budget, he admitted he has no idea how pensions work.
I've never voted Tory in my life but I would if I lived in Broxtowe
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
Those parties couldn't fit all their MPs in a phone box.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
Most Cabinet, and Shadow Cabinet would have been at their respective launches.
It's funny that UKIPs 2 MPs couldn't make it to their own manifesto unveiling, in spite of the fact that the venue is on the direct route between their constituencies. .
Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
It's the last bolt the Tories had left to fire, and I think they made their electoral policy pitch as good as they could, but I don't think the manifesto coverage (and the Tories did get pretty much a full newscycle leading with it) will do much to voting intentions.
I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;
Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.
Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.
There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!
Rochester and Strood is one that a wannabe majority government might have won. (I know there have been boundary changes since the Blair years; I don't think a Lab Maj govt would win R&S, but a by-election is different).
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
I don't think that's an entirely fair comparison. Certainly there is a lot of wishing to see division in UKIP as it benefits the big two if UKIP lose momentum, but when you only have two MPs, and you are seeking to build upon them, they are a more valuable resource than individual Lab or Con MPs, and it has been a little surprising they do not appear to have had a bigger profile lately.
I feel I can say that fairly given my praise of the manifesto's promotion of figures beyond Farage and the two MPs. It is still a little surprising not to see more of them.
I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.
A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.
I've been trying to follow the logic of this statement - it's a curious one ..... a bit like that guess the bithday puzzle which has been sweeping the net over the past 48hrs. All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?
These must be difficult times for those presumably aberrant people who like to pick up a paper generally but who are not deeply committed to the political stances they are now pushing with the subtlety of an elephant trying to sneak through a bathroom window.
Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.
The childcare announcement.
No good for hardworking singletons
But it works for you too, Sunil. You'll find that the ladies will be even keener now they know that 30 hours free childcare is merely 3 years, 9 months & 5 minutes away.
I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.
A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.
I've been trying to follow the logic of this statement - it's a curious one ..... a bit like that guess the bithday puzzle which has been sweeping the net over the past 48hrs. All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?
Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.
It is the most sensible thing to come from a Labour front bencher during the campaign. High taxes are economically damaging and will reduce tax yield over the long term. What we need is an economy that generates enough revenue to pay for public services and keep the government budget in balance. Overtaxing the country for the sake of an ideology is bad for all of us. Blair understood this, I fear that Ed doesn't, he seems to be dogmatically attached to higher taxes. Stuff like the attack on non-doms, politically clever, economically poor. That special status we have compared to the rest of the world is beneficial for our economy. Getting rid of it is not going to help us close the deficit, if anything it will open it up as tax receipts from the global super rich start to fall. Who then is going to pay for the NHS? We have 50-60,000 super high net worth individuals paying billions in tax that would not otherwise be in the country. Making their status here questionable is not something I would want to put into question.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
How many times can this story run? Had it had front page coverage when it did before? Today's politicians are too boring and sensible, they don't give as many chances for character assassination as they used to I guess.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
Source? I thought not.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Most of the great political quotes weren't actually said. The point about this one, is that he could have said it.
Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
Source? I thought not.
It was in an article linked below by funny enough a Labour supporting poster..
I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.
A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.
All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition.
Seems pretty sound, given his reputation. Another backbench Tory might be far too rebellious to play ball, jeopardizing things, without even considering increasing the number of Tory friendly MPs in the LD ranks.
Comments
I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
Labour Uncut@LabourUncut·6m6 minutes ago
The Ukip meltdown has begun http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/04/15/the-ukip-meltdown-has-begun/#more-19564 …
If we consider Ashcroft's constituency polls have a margin of error of +/-5% on the party voteshares, then the SW constituency with the largest Lib Dem lead (St. Ives, at 3%) is well within it.
In fact, the only "safe" seats in the SW region look to be Thornbury & Yate, Yeovil, Cheltenham and Bath.
And I have grave doubts about the last two, which is why I've bet on the Tories in both.
South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.
Mark Reckless@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html
He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.
On a wider point though beyond business, if he's in a minority and only has ( say ) 270 MP's to form a Govt from, and given there's more than a fair few old buffers from the Blair/ Brown years still hanging around, and you have "Sir Humphrey Appleby's maxim" that as a third are past it, a third too green, and there's "no choice at all ", Ed might have even less real "choice" than almost any PM before. Ministerial quality may get a bit thin? Same could apply to Cameron too.
Another good YouGov for Lab tonight and it will start to look as if it's not random variation - ie as far as YouGov is concerned.
If I were *cough* a betting man, I'd go for an unchanged Lab 35% Con 33%, after all YG never seems to alter by more more than 1% from night to night and often not at all. Whispering this quietly, but their polls have become ever so slightly boring.
Perhaps we'll see some fun and games from them during the last three weeks of the GE campaign.
“I don’t believe that you tax for the sake of taxing, you tax to fund public services and, currently, to reduce our deficit and our debt.”
Sounds almost Tory.
But it's yesterday's figures.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/588450967487545344
Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
I've never voted Tory in my life but I would if I lived in Broxtowe
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32297154
The childcare announcement.
It's funny that UKIPs 2 MPs couldn't make it to their own manifesto unveiling, in spite of the fact that the venue is on the direct route between their constituencies. .
It might aide motivation and turnout.
UKIP managed 0%
Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all did better than that...
I feel I can say that fairly given my praise of the manifesto's promotion of figures beyond Farage and the two MPs. It is still a little surprising not to see more of them.
All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?
https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/588452558060027904
BTW, I noticed somehow the Mirror was awarded newspaper of the year and the Rant on Sunday, the Sunday paper of the year...
@MSmithsonPB: For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·15 secs15 seconds ago
For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford
*not the cotswold one
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/588453299541700608
Nick Clegg tells @BBCAllegra that he will not take a departmental role in next parliament
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32297154
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Manifesto surge, eh?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9494602/ed-miliband-could-still-win-heres-what-would-happen-next/
I for one was very impressed with the UKIP manifesto, content matters not how many party figures were there.