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  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    "ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."


    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    It has but I don't think we're discussing it.

    Move along. Move along.

    This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England

    I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    FU Yes, not bad some good sketches of Farage as stand up comedian and Ed M trying to toughen up for tomorrow's debate with Yvette C and Ed B
  • Heart of stone needed to read this sad tale...

    Labour Uncut‏@LabourUncut·6m6 minutes ago
    The Ukip meltdown has begun http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/04/15/the-ukip-meltdown-has-begun/#more-19564
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    ukelect said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    "ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."


    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    It has but I don't think we're discussing it.

    Move along. Move along.

    This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England

    I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
    Love the presentation, except that the orangey-yellow for the LD score is almost unreadable against the grey background. Are you going to incorporate this ComRes into your model?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Heart of stone needed to read this sad tale...

    Labour Uncut‏@LabourUncut·6m6 minutes ago
    The Ukip meltdown has begun http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/04/15/the-ukip-meltdown-has-begun/#more-19564

    SunPolitics: Ukip election blunder bus http://t.co/13rCSSxPMG http://t.co/aUDVTcpgsA
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    SMukesh said:

    Danny565 said:

    Yikes, just seen that South West poll. If that's even close to accurate then even 20 seats for the Lib Dems looks like a stretch.

    Ashcroft`s marginal polling probably gives them hope.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/
    This ComRes poll may well be consistent with Ashcroft.

    If we consider Ashcroft's constituency polls have a margin of error of +/-5% on the party voteshares, then the SW constituency with the largest Lib Dem lead (St. Ives, at 3%) is well within it.

    In fact, the only "safe" seats in the SW region look to be Thornbury & Yate, Yeovil, Cheltenham and Bath.

    And I have grave doubts about the last two, which is why I've bet on the Tories in both.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    ukelect said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    "ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."


    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    It has but I don't think we're discussing it.

    Move along. Move along.

    This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England

    I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
    Interesting.

    South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.
  • Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    john_zims said:

    @RobD

    'Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!'

    So much for all that incumbency bullet proof stuff.

    Are these probabilities reliable for the L.Dems to survive in a particular seat?

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    Oh lol.

    He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
  • SMukesh said:

    ukelect said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    "ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."


    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    It has but I don't think we're discussing it.

    Move along. Move along.

    This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England

    I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
    Interesting.

    South West seems to be the only region where the Tories will make net gains.
    got a chance in scotland ....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.

    We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    I went to a hustings in which the labour candidate was so feeble, she wasnt able to give a response to a simple question (it wasnt even a question, just a bit of a complaint about not being able to claim it back anymore) about SSP (statutory sick pay), despite been the last person on the panel to answer the question, thereby having listened to four other candidates give concise intelligent responses. She said she would email the person concerned afterwards.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Dair said:

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    Oh lol.

    He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
    Personally I thought there was very little to disagree with, very difficult for any sensible person to argue with any of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    [i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!
    Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
    I'm not sure it does.
  • Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    Those are last nights numbers
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    !
    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/Others
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    Deletion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    Oh lol.

    He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
    Nothing unusual in party members interpreting things most positively for their party, though if we want to pick it apart, he does not say 'widely' acclaimed. I'm sure some people will acclaim anything, for any party. If UKIP are like a cult, that aspect is not part of it anymore than any other party.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    Those are last nights numbers
    Ah sorry everybody
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Dair said:

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    Oh lol.

    He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
    Personally I thought there was very little to disagree with, very difficult for any sensible person to argue with any of it.
    I thought it pretty decent. In terms of layout and presentation I thought it was the best, its stock photos showed some distinction from the others at least by giving focus to a range of the party's MEPs and spokespeople, and maybe I was suffering from manifesto fatigue (and dread, as I had the LD one still to go, which is double the size of the others), but nothing jumped out at me as something opponents could jump on with any wide success.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    I do hope and pray the dividend quote is untrue or we all are truly stuffed if he's at the helm and that clueless. I will believe it untrue even of crap Ed till proved otherwise, ( it's worrying it even sounds plausible!).

    On a wider point though beyond business, if he's in a minority and only has ( say ) 270 MP's to form a Govt from, and given there's more than a fair few old buffers from the Blair/ Brown years still hanging around, and you have "Sir Humphrey Appleby's maxim" that as a third are past it, a third too green, and there's "no choice at all ", Ed might have even less real "choice" than almost any PM before. Ministerial quality may get a bit thin? Same could apply to Cameron too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    YouGov has been good for Lab the last few days - whereas other polls haven't shown the same movement.

    Another good YouGov for Lab tonight and it will start to look as if it's not random variation - ie as far as YouGov is concerned.
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    [i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!
    Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
    I'm not sure it does.
    I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Prof Rallings on ITV News, if this poll is repeated across the country Lib Dems could be down to single figures...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Saltire said:

    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    The
    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    Those are last nights numbers
    Ah sorry everybody
    Think they've cottoned on people were peeking early!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Saltire said:

    !

    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/Others
    Where are you seeing that?

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    Leadership bid...

    @politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj

    Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Scott_P said:

    Prof Rallings on ITV News, if this poll is repeated across the country Lib Dems could be down to single figures...

    Mike has taken Andrew Hawkins to task on Twitter for not naming candidates...

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).
  • GIN1138 said:

    Saltire said:

    !

    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/Others
    Where are you seeing that?

    Last nights poll on you gov/centre
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Dair said:

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    Oh lol.

    He thinks the UKIP Manifesto was acclaimed. It's like a cult.
    Mahoosive self awareness fail.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    ukelect said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    "ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."


    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    It has but I don't think we're discussing it.

    Move along. Move along.

    This is what my latest forecast (made earlier today, and taking account of the previous Ashcroft polls) currently expects SW England to look like after the election: Prediction for SW England

    I'm currently predicting 27 LibDem seats overall. That ComRes poll should be making the LibDems very nervous indeed!
    Love the presentation, except that the orangey-yellow for the LD score is almost unreadable against the grey background. Are you going to incorporate this ComRes into your model?
    I'm certainly considering it. At the very least I think I need to consider how the LibDem vote in the SW may have devolved since the earlier Ashcroft polls in the region.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Cyclefree said:

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.

    We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.

    Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    YouGov tonight -

    If I were *cough* a betting man, I'd go for an unchanged Lab 35% Con 33%, after all YG never seems to alter by more more than 1% from night to night and often not at all. Whispering this quietly, but their polls have become ever so slightly boring.
    Perhaps we'll see some fun and games from them during the last three weeks of the GE campaign.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    JGC said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    [i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!
    Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
    I'm not sure it does.
    I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.
    Correct.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Danny565 said:

    Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).

    Gone down well or badly, it seems like very little can shake the polling by more than a point or two. After a few slender Labour leads we might have been due a tie or slender Tory leader anyway, so maybe a good night will have then 3 up or something, but by tomorrow we'll be back where we've been for weeks I would guess.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Prof Rallings on ITV News, if this poll is repeated across the country Lib Dems could be down to single figures...

    Mike has taken Andrew Hawkins to task on Twitter for not naming candidates...

    Does incumbency count when people vote swap across constituencies?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Leadership bid...

    @politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj

    Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.
    “I wouldn’t want to do it permanently because, as I said, I would like to see the tax burden as low as possible,” Mr Umunna said in an interview with the New Statesman.

    “I don’t believe that you tax for the sake of taxing, you tax to fund public services and, currently, to reduce our deficit and our debt.”

    Sounds almost Tory.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    JGC said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been flagged up?

    [i]"ITV NEWS SOUTH WEST LIB DEM / TORY BATTLEGROUNDS
    Poll of voters for living in Liberal Democrat seats where the Conservatives are in second place, in the South West of England, for ITV News."[/i]

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/

    Yeah, the LDs are in for a pasting!
    Contrasts sharply with most of Ashcroft's findings in the SW.
    I'm not sure it does.
    I agree it does not conflict with Ashcroft. Look at his first question numbers for SW LIB / CON seats they are pretty much identical with Comres. The issue is whether the second constituency question is a valid polling method, there are arguments both ways, we shall have to wait 3 weeks to find out.
    The question asks In your constituency, thinking about yr mp tho
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    GIN1138 said:

    Saltire said:

    !

    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/Others
    Where are you seeing that?

    Here: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

    But it's yesterday's figures.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    Scott_P said:

    Prof Rallings on ITV News, if this poll is repeated across the country Lib Dems could be down to single figures...

    If they are wiped out in the SW as well as Scotland there isn't much left to defend.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).

    Tom-Newton-Whatsit hasn't been hinting at anything exciting, so I'm expecting more of the same...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
    Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.

    Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
    He'd have had to use the Dartford Tunnel - maybe expenses are tight?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Leadership bid...

    @politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj

    Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.
    The last labour leader to win a majority advocating top levels of income tax over 40% was Harold Wilson in 1964.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    welshowl said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.

    We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.

    Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
    And it's for exactly the same reason that MPs should not be able to claim either council tax - or any other sort of tax, including the mansion tax - on expenses. We can't. Neither should they.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    The idea that Lab could come close to the number of SW MPs as the LDs must be pretty terrifying for the still pretty decent number of LD councilors across the region, should Lab become the natural party of opposition to local Tories.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).

    Tom-Newton-Whatsit hasn't been hinting at anything exciting, so I'm expecting more of the same...
    I was thinking a Con lead earlier today, but betfair and the TND factor suggest not.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    welshowl said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.

    We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.

    Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
    Nick made a complete tit of himself when Osborne announced his pension changes in the 2014 budget, he admitted he has no idea how pensions work.

    I've never voted Tory in my life but I would if I lived in Broxtowe
  • welshowl said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    That's the sort of question that only someone with a pension paid for by taxpayers could ask.

    We might get fewer stupid laws if MPs' pensions had to be invested in the stock market just like the rest of us and they had to live - in old age- with the consequences of the decisions they took.

    Dead right. Nick Palmer - are you reading this please??
    Hear hear.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    chestnut said:

    I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;

    Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.

    Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.


    There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!
  • Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
    Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.

    Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
    Those parties couldn't fit all their MPs in a phone box.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    I wonder who the Mirror is supporting...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32297154
  • Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.

    The childcare announcement.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
    Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.

    Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
    Most Cabinet, and Shadow Cabinet would have been at their respective launches.

    It's funny that UKIPs 2 MPs couldn't make it to their own manifesto unveiling, in spite of the fact that the venue is on the direct route between their constituencies. .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Am I the only one expecting a solid Tory lead? I think their manifesto will have gone down well (and Labour's conversion to out-austerity-ing the Tories badly).

    It's the last bolt the Tories had left to fire, and I think they made their electoral policy pitch as good as they could, but I don't think the manifesto coverage (and the Tories did get pretty much a full newscycle leading with it) will do much to voting intentions.

    It might aide motivation and turnout.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    GIN1138 said:

    Saltire said:

    !

    Saltire said:

    So YouGov what do we think?

    I am guessing little real change, 35/34.

    Going by their website Labour are 2% ahead just need to wait for the actual numbers...
    In fact their website is now showing 35/33 with 13/8/5/5 for UKIP/Libdems/Greens/Others
    Where are you seeing that?

    Here: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

    But it's yesterday's figures.
    Thx. :smiley:

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.

    Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?

    The green Party managed to get 100% of their MPs to their manifesto launch

    UKIP managed 0%

    Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all did better than that...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    chestnut said:

    I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;

    Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.

    Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.


    There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!
    Rochester and Strood is one that a wannabe majority government might have won. (I know there have been boundary changes since the Blair years; I don't think a Lab Maj govt would win R&S, but a by-election is different).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    chestnut said:

    I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;

    Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.

    Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.


    There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!
    Corby!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    Source? I thought not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Reassuring - the TPD is happy.

    Mark Reckless‏@MarkReckless·6 mins6 minutes ago
    @LabourUncut I have had fantastic support from UKIP and @Nigel_Farage and don't agree with what you say + weird timing w manifesto acclaimed

    But he couldn't quite manage the 25 minute drive from Rochester to Thurrock for the manifesto launch.
    Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.

    Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?
    I don't think that's an entirely fair comparison. Certainly there is a lot of wishing to see division in UKIP as it benefits the big two if UKIP lose momentum, but when you only have two MPs, and you are seeking to build upon them, they are a more valuable resource than individual Lab or Con MPs, and it has been a little surprising they do not appear to have had a bigger profile lately.

    I feel I can say that fairly given my praise of the manifesto's promotion of figures beyond Farage and the two MPs. It is still a little surprising not to see more of them.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.

    A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.
    I've been trying to follow the logic of this statement - it's a curious one ..... a bit like that guess the bithday puzzle which has been sweeping the net over the past 48hrs.
    All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015

    Kitchens are back

    No splash on the poll #sunkremlinology
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.

    The childcare announcement.

    No good for hardworking singletons :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Really, not this again...The Sun (and Mirror) used to be really good at digging up proper dirt.

    BTW, I noticed somehow the Mirror was awarded newspaper of the year and the Rant on Sunday, the Sunday paper of the year...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dave can't win here...

    @MSmithsonPB: For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford
  • OGH has turned at last - welcome to pbtory land?

    Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·15 secs15 seconds ago
    For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    SMukesh said:

    I wonder who the Mirror is supporting...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32297154

    These must be difficult times for those presumably aberrant people who like to pick up a paper generally but who are not deeply committed to the political stances they are now pushing with the subtlety of an elephant trying to sneak through a bathroom window.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    edited April 2015

    chestnut said:

    I don't see this claim that any increase in the Lab vote is from piling up votes in safe seats;

    Sunil's by election graph illustrates this particular peril.

    Labour have made zero net gains in by-elections in this parliament in spite of a very substantial Con-Lab swing.


    There have been 0 bye elections in winnable marginals!
    Corby!
    Doh - that was ages ago! I'd forgotten how little time it took for Cameroon wannabe Louise to get bored and head for Broadway*.

    *not the cotswold one
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.

    The childcare announcement.

    No good for hardworking singletons :)
    But it works for you too, Sunil. You'll find that the ladies will be even keener now they know that 30 hours free childcare is merely 3 years, 9 months & 5 minutes away.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.

    A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.
    I've been trying to follow the logic of this statement - it's a curious one ..... a bit like that guess the bithday puzzle which has been sweeping the net over the past 48hrs.
    All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition. Was this your thinking?
    Yep
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Something he has got completely right I see.

    Nick Clegg tells @BBCAllegra that he will not take a departmental role in next parliament
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32297154
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Leadership bid...

    @politicshome: 50p tax rate should not be permanent, says Umunna http://t.co/06DXOzvUY0 http://t.co/k6qveBalYj

    Comments like that are exactly why Umunna will never be Labour leader.
    It is the most sensible thing to come from a Labour front bencher during the campaign. High taxes are economically damaging and will reduce tax yield over the long term. What we need is an economy that generates enough revenue to pay for public services and keep the government budget in balance. Overtaxing the country for the sake of an ideology is bad for all of us. Blair understood this, I fear that Ed doesn't, he seems to be dogmatically attached to higher taxes. Stuff like the attack on non-doms, politically clever, economically poor. That special status we have compared to the rest of the world is beneficial for our economy. Getting rid of it is not going to help us close the deficit, if anything it will open it up as tax receipts from the global super rich start to fall. Who then is going to pay for the NHS? We have 50-60,000 super high net worth individuals paying billions in tax that would not otherwise be in the country. Making their status here questionable is not something I would want to put into question.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    Source? I thought not.
    Blimey, give him a chance.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Dave can't win here...

    @MSmithsonPB: For the first time in a quarter of a century there's a CON poster board in our road in Bedford

    But does it name the candidate?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited April 2015

    Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.

    The childcare announcement.

    No good for hardworking singletons :)
    Trying to make babies is good for hardworking singletons.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    I believe Staines has a load of dirt to do with the story. She was threatening to sue him for tweeting about it a couple of weeks ago.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.

    The childcare announcement.

    No good for hardworking singletons :)
    I do wonder:Who are you voting for ?
  • SMukesh said:

    Canvassing today, the manifesto announcement that really got the voters excited/happy.

    The childcare announcement.

    No good for hardworking singletons :)
    I do wonder:Who are you voting for ?
    He's voting Tory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Kitchens are back

    htps://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/588452558060027904

    How many times can this story run? Had it had front page coverage when it did before? Today's politicians are too boring and sensible, they don't give as many chances for character assassination as they used to I guess.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 6s 6 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    Source? I thought not.
    "Crisis, what crisis?" Most of the great political quotes weren't actually said. The point about this one, is that he could have said it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569
    LAB - 35% (-) CON - 34% (+1) UKIP - 13% (-) LDEM - 8% (-) GRN - 5% (-)

    Manifesto surge, eh?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG - EICIPM
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    Wonder what MORI will show (if it turns up) tomorrow. :smiley:

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    Given the suspicion in which Balls and Umunna are held by the Miliband inner circle, it is by no means certain that they would retain their briefs in Miliband’s first cabinet. This in turn would create one of the great uncertainties of a Miliband premiership: neither he nor anyone around him has any experience in business. For all their bright ideas about what companies could do for them, they haven’t a clue whether their various means of exerting pressure will work — or what unintended consequences may follow. One head of a FTSE100 company recently granted a rare audience with the putative First Lord of the Treasury sat dumbstruck as Miliband asked him, ‘Why exactly do you need to pay your shareholders dividends?’

    Source? I thought not.
    It was in an article linked below by funny enough a Labour supporting poster..

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9494602/ed-miliband-could-still-win-heres-what-would-happen-next/
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Scott_P said:

    Your obsession regarding this matter is odd.

    Was every Tory MP at their manifesto launch, or Labour MP at theirs?

    The green Party managed to get 100% of their MPs to their manifesto launch

    UKIP managed 0%

    Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all did better than that...
    And that is all that matters? Style over substance?

    I for one was very impressed with the UKIP manifesto, content matters not how many party figures were there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Looks like I guessed it right on YouGov :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    I'd be surprised if David Laws is the only safe Lib Dem unless tthe Tories aren't campaigning hard there on purpose. He has a huge majority but he seems one of the least likely to be able to hold onto anti-Tory tactical votes and his expenses won't have done him any favours. As I've said before, Yeovil is probably the one place where I would consider voting Tory.

    A Conservative vote in Yeovil probably makes a Con Gov't LESS likely tbh.
    All I can come come up with is that you consider that by David Laws retaining his seat, this would greatly increase the prospects of another Con - LibDem coalition.
    Seems pretty sound, given his reputation. Another backbench Tory might be far too rebellious to play ball, jeopardizing things, without even considering increasing the number of Tory friendly MPs in the LD ranks.
This discussion has been closed.