politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:
In February we ran our first competition using the Nojam.com template. Clearly things have moved on since then and this is the second wave. Entries will close AFTER the debate tomorrow night.
Good timing on this as choice of thread. I can see the conspiracy theories already.
I don't even remember what I predicted last time. Due to my stubbornly high Lab prediction but generous LD and SNP prediction, I couldn't get the seats to add up, so just randomly cut a few here and there with no reasoning.
@NCPoliticsUK: Just to put this poll into some sort of perspective, Monday's ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 - an 8.9% swing. This poll has it about 13%
I am confused by this Labour policy on grandparents being able to share unpaid leave from work to look after grand kids. I thought the whole reason grandparents were increasingly been used by parents for child care etc was because they are retired AND DON'T WORK....and if they do work, are they likely to be in much better position to take unpaid leave than the kids parents?
I would have thought a far better policy would be to target giving grandparents (who aren't in full time work) some sort of support if they look after kids. You see it all over the place, all these 70 year olds being dragged around by toddlers, acting as free child care.
Worth remembering its not only the LDs relying on the polls being wrong, its just the consequences of them being the ones who are wrong is higher in terms of percentage impact on total seats, but actually less in terms of victory or not.
@NCPoliticsUK: Just to put this poll into some sort of perspective, Monday's ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 - an 8.9% swing. This poll has it about 13%
So ICM wasn't an outlier...?
And on ONS the swing from Labour to SNP is negative.
@NCPoliticsUK: Just to put this poll into some sort of perspective, Monday's ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 - an 8.9% swing. This poll has it about 13%
So ICM wasn't an outlier...?
Ashcroft's latest round of polling found a 4.8% swing from Lib Dem to Con, which is bad enough. If that were uniform 17 Lib Dem seats would go Blue in England and Wales. 13% seems implausible to me.
Mr. Smithson, cheers for that link (and thanks to Mr. Hopkins for the entry form, and Sporting Index for the prize).
May be too bullish on the blues, but my previous entry covered the Ungovernable Mess result, and I don't feel things have shifted for Labour (or against the SNP) since then.
A good cartoon, though I don't think many followed its advice.
I see I was still predicting a Lab majority, one of only about 5 people to do so - what on earth was I thinking? (FWIW, I still think they have a chance, but not a great one)
FPT: The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse. Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
It is increasingly common and I find this sort of thing extremely irritating. Twitter has a similar approach and LinkedIn send emails and have links that appear to only have "Accept" or "Confirm" buttons - I cannot see any "Decline" or "Cancel" options.
In both cases I solved the problem by deleting my accounts.
FPT: The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse. Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
It depends on their design goals. If their website is intended to harvest supporters email addresses then they're doing the right thing.
Oops, pressed save at the wrong time. Entry "Anorak" to be deleted please, if you'd be so kind. Entry "Anorak (corrected, sorry)" to be retained. D is for Dunce.
As the main manifestos have been released, I thought I would do a quick accessibility scan for the manifestos. I don't have time to do a proper job, but my previous post shows a problem with Labour, Conservative and UKIP's sites.
However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.
I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?
If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
If the LD collapse to the Tories is real, then the election really is going to be about whether the Tories can get enough seats to realistically govern on their own. Labour will do very well to stand still the way things are going.
As the main manifestos have been released, I thought I would do a quick accessibility scan for the manifestos. I don't have time to do a proper job, but my previous post shows a problem with Labour, Conservative and UKIP's sites.
However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.
I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
Given that's the Green's is basically incoherent and total BS...I think it would have been fitting if they got that bloke from Nelson Mandela's funeral to do the signing.
On a serious note, it is pretty piss poor for the main parties not to have accessible versions of their manifestos though. In this day and age, it shouldn't really be "Kudos" for providing accessible versions, it is fairly straight forward to do so with modern technology.
FPT: The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse. Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
It depends on their design goals. If their website is intended to harvest supporters email addresses then they're doing the right thing.
There's an election on. People want to read the manifestos and learn what the parties have to say, not give their emails out. Splash screens are just obstructionist nonsense that p*ss people off.
*If* they have to do this, then do it out of election time.
The Lib Dem one pops up and says " Oh... Oh my god, a visitor! Did you click on us by mistake?"
D*mn! I had to go and look at that one too - I was so hoping that what you said was true. Alas, they just had their normal website. No prompts, no pop-ups, no "The only answers are YES or MAYBE" forms.
As the main manifestos have been released, I thought I would do a quick accessibility scan for the manifestos. I don't have time to do a proper job, but my previous post shows a problem with Labour, Conservative and UKIP's sites.
However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.
I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
Given that's the Green is basically incoherent and total BS...I think it would have been fitting if they got that bloke from Nelson Mandela's funeral to do the signing.
On a serious note, it is pretty piss poor for the main parties not to have accessible versions of their manifestos though.
If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?
If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.
Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
He stands as independent, which shows Bercow is a bit of a laff in the end. I'm not sure if the Speaker should, once selected, be still classed as an MP .
FPT: The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse. Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
It depends on their design goals. If their website is intended to harvest supporters email addresses then they're doing the right thing.
There's an election on. People want to read the manifestos and learn what the parties have to say, not give their emails out. Splash screens are just obstructionist nonsense that p*ss people off.
*If* they have to do this, then do it out of election time.
I'm sure they weren't like it last week when I visited them.
If a sitting Speaker stands as an independent but is then not reappointed as Speaker, would the honourable thing be to stand down and force a by-election, either back under party colours or still as an independent? The people would not be getting what they thought they were getting after all.
I have gone for the Tories ending up with about 50 more seats than Labour, but short of a majority and slightly down on their 2009 total. C - 301 L - 252 LD - 23 UKIP - 3 Green - 1 SNP - 47
Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today (Daisy Farm, Greasley) and found some of scepticism about the Tory manifesto promises - "I liked them when they were getting the deficit down but I'm confused by this good fairy stuff - though I think you're rubbish too", as one said wryly.
Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?
If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?
If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.
Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
If the Conservatives won 305 seats they'd have a very clear majority in England and Wales, and I think it would be difficult for a party that had very clearly come second in England and Wales to govern, even if an anti-Tory coalition could be cobbled together.
He stands as independent, which shows Bercow is a bit of a laff in the end. I'm not sure if the Speaker should, once selected, be still classed as an MP .
As a PS - as far as I know Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, voted against the secret ballot for Speaker, (I do not think she voted for it anyway) this despite her regular arguments against the supposed archaic traditions of the House of Commons.
If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?
If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.
Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
If the Conservatives won 305 seats they'd have a very clear majority in England and Wales, and I think it would be difficult for a party that had very clearly come second in England and Wales to govern, even if an anti-Tory coalition could be cobbled together.
And Scotland has an almost 100% anti-Tory majority.
It's tricky to make the matsh work for Dave not to be PM on 305 seats mind, Lib Dem score has to be very very low for Ed to be PM.
I always forget this - without the Speaker and Sinn Fein, what is the de facto majority in the Commons?
323
From Polly:
Only 135,000 super-votes will decide the result. That’s the 3% swayed either way in the 100 most marginal seats in current polls. We are all at the mercy of those happy few with golden tickets:
My GF's parents are in this bracket. 2010 Super Lib Dems in Pudsey - though my money is on the Tories there
I have gone for the Tories ending up with about 50 more seats than Labour, but short of a majority and slightly down on their 2009 total. C - 301 L - 252 LD - 23 UKIP - 3 Green - 1 SNP - 47
I'd have the gap nearer 30 - which makes the SNP vs Lib Dem result all the more intriguing....
Heck - who knows?
In the meantime, another excellent article from Raphael Behr:
Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today ... Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power
as far as I know Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, voted against the secret ballot for Speaker
There is this useful thing called Hansard where the votes of MPs in divisions are faithfully recorded so noone ever has to rely on posters like you making stuff up.
If the Conservatives have 305 seats, that would be just enough to put together a feasible government with the support of the Democratic Unionists and occasional support from whatever is left of the LibDems on a confidence and supply basis.
It's just quite hard at the moment to see them winning that many.
Incidentally, if the Speaker is not re-elected Speaker, by convention s/he is transferred to the Lords, triggering a by-election anyway.
Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?
We don't discuss the Lib-Dem's impending meltdown...
ha ok fair enough. Looks like they're in big trouble down there. someone told me tories are piling in campaigning. If they lose all 14 seats tory majority looks more poss.
Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today (Daisy Farm, Greasley) and found some of scepticism about the Tory manifesto promises - "I liked them when they were getting the deficit down but I'm confused by this good fairy stuff - though I think you're rubbish too", as one said wryly.
Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?
An octogenarian would (at most) have been 8 when Hitler took power, quite possibly younger....
Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today (Daisy Farm, Greasley) and found some of scepticism about the Tory manifesto promises - "I liked them when they were getting the deficit down but I'm confused by this good fairy stuff - though I think you're rubbish too", as one said wryly.
Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?
An octogenarian would (at most) have been 8 when Hitler took power, quite possibly younger....
Or quite possibly not born (1935). I would guess it was a wind-up.
If a sitting Speaker stands as an independent but is then not reappointed as Speaker, would the honourable thing be to stand down and force a by-election, either back under party colours or still as an independent? The people would not be getting what they thought they were getting after all.
Its a shame the Speakership has been politicised under labour. Martin should never have been selected or appointed. May I take the opportunity to add I think the HoL should be abolished.
by next Monday’s deadline, even more may be missing due to David Cameron’s gerrymandering change that barred everyone in a household from registering on one form
When did this gerrymandering change come in? We had only one form for this household a few months back. I remember because I filled it in.
... how best to stop a Cameron second term? Pause here to contemplate what a Tory win threatens – such as leaving the EU, a £12bn cut in benefits, climate denial, an end to social housing, and a 1930s-sized state.
I always think this sort of attitude explains why Labour does so badly in government. Their main electoral policy seems to be to "Keep the tories out" and everything else is simply a means to that end. Once Labour are in govt the Tories ARE out and it is a case of "Now what?" and so they start fiddling and shuffling and so forth. I think the average cabinet minister under Labour lasted about 9 months between 2007 and 2010 - Hello I must be going. ID cards had a different rationale every few weeks, policies seemed to come and go with dizzying speed.
If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?
If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.
Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
If the Conservatives won 305 seats they'd have a very clear majority in England and Wales, and I think it would be difficult for a party that had very clearly come second in England and Wales to govern, even if an anti-Tory coalition could be cobbled together.
And Scotland has an almost 100% anti-Tory majority.
It's tricky to make the matsh work for Dave not to be PM on 305 seats mind, Lib Dem score has to be very very low for Ed to be PM.
If the LDs didn't do a deal - either due to numbers, leaders or willingness - and UKIP/DUP couldn't make up the difference it would be a Conservative government in office, but not in power.
Comments
I don't even remember what I predicted last time. Due to my stubbornly high Lab prediction but generous LD and SNP prediction, I couldn't get the seats to add up, so just randomly cut a few here and there with no reasoning.
So ICM wasn't an outlier...?
BBC News just said Nick Robinson takes a look at the Conservative manifesto and Nick Clegg ....
I would have thought a far better policy would be to target giving grandparents (who aren't in full time work) some sort of support if they look after kids. You see it all over the place, all these 70 year olds being dragged around by toddlers, acting as free child care.
'Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.'
Good luck with that,always good to dream.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/18/after-this-weeks-pollercoaster-now-you-predict-the-election-in-pbs-prize-competition/
Labour = Good
The regional swing is what's important.
May be too bullish on the blues, but my previous entry covered the Ungovernable Mess result, and I don't feel things have shifted for Labour (or against the SNP) since then.
I see I was still predicting a Lab majority, one of only about 5 people to do so - what on earth was I thinking? (FWIW, I still think they have a chance, but not a great one)
The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.
Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
In both cases I solved the problem by deleting my accounts.
They were reported as being announced on Monday but they aren't in the manifesto.
I don't want the BBC's (or anyone else's) bullet point summary - I want the full details.
eg One change was to raise £800m by restricting CGT reliefs. I want to know exactly what they said.
Can anyone provide a link to the Lib Dem's announcement on this?
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
"Good evening. Will you be voting Labour on 7 May?"
[ ] Yes
[ ] Maybe
They seem to have missed an option. Either that or they have been using the same advisors as LinkedIn
However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.
I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
Cons UP 19
Lab down circa 24
LDs down 3
UKIP down 2
SNP up 7
On a serious note, it is pretty piss poor for the main parties not to have accessible versions of their manifestos though. In this day and age, it shouldn't really be "Kudos" for providing accessible versions, it is fairly straight forward to do so with modern technology.
*If* they have to do this, then do it out of election time.
*sigh!*
Now time to get on with the cooking.
It'd be interesting to see what happened to Cameron, though.
Mr. Jessop, that kind of things is bloody irritating.
Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance. So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
I'm not sure if the Speaker should, once selected, be still classed as an MP .
No article on the Lib Dem poll collapse yet? Strange, even Guido Fawkes has managed to cobble one together.
Lab 263
Lib Dem 10
UKIP 3
Green 1
SNP 55
C - 301
L - 252
LD - 23
UKIP - 3
Green - 1
SNP - 47
Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?
At which point the DUP and UKIP start to come into the picture if the Lib Dems have collapsed completely.
Taxi! Taxi!
Britain’s rotten electoral system means that once again it’s nose-peg time - Polly Toynbee
The new vote-swap site already has 100,000 voters signed up – with no publicity. This year vote-swappers could make all the difference.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
Con 315 (+6)
Lab 238 (-7)
LD 24 (-2)
UKIP 1 (-1)
Green 1 (=)
SNP 47 (+3)
It's tricky to make the matsh work for Dave not to be PM on 305 seats mind, Lib Dem score has to be very very low for Ed to be PM.
The magic number is 323
From Polly:
Only 135,000 super-votes will decide the result. That’s the 3% swayed either way in the 100 most marginal seats in current polls. We are all at the mercy of those happy few with golden tickets:
My GF's parents are in this bracket. 2010 Super Lib Dems in Pudsey - though my money is on the Tories there
Did I miss it back start of the day or something.
Heck - who knows?
In the meantime, another excellent article from Raphael Behr:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/the-making-of-ed-miliband
It was a something else area.
Wasn't it?
Which is first result to be called from there ?
It's just quite hard at the moment to see them winning that many.
Incidentally, if the Speaker is not re-elected Speaker, by convention s/he is transferred to the Lords, triggering a by-election anyway.
"If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM."
I think if the Tories get 305 ... then Ed will have difficulty surviving as Labour leader, let alone get to be PM.
There must be many at the top of Labour who must be thinking, "I can do better than this”, as they look at Ed.
It is in their interest for Dave to run a minority Govt for a year or two, while they defenestrate Ed, and then pick their moment to challenge Dave.
Parties are not monoliths, if Ed ends up with a net loss or very modest gains .... then his party will eat him before Alex Salmond does.
I'm trying to come up with the result that'll cause the most outrage in the Daily Mail
It's a position to make it impossible for the SNP to support a Tory Queen speech even if it offered FFA.
Martin should never have been selected or appointed.
May I take the opportunity to add I think the HoL should be abolished.