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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Com
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:
In February we ran our first competition using the Nojam.com template. Clearly things have moved on since then and this is the second wave. Entries will close AFTER the debate tomorrow night.
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I don't even remember what I predicted last time. Due to my stubbornly high Lab prediction but generous LD and SNP prediction, I couldn't get the seats to add up, so just randomly cut a few here and there with no reasoning.
So ICM wasn't an outlier...?
BBC News just said Nick Robinson takes a look at the Conservative manifesto and Nick Clegg ....
I would have thought a far better policy would be to target giving grandparents (who aren't in full time work) some sort of support if they look after kids. You see it all over the place, all these 70 year olds being dragged around by toddlers, acting as free child care.
'Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.'
Good luck with that,always good to dream.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/18/after-this-weeks-pollercoaster-now-you-predict-the-election-in-pbs-prize-competition/
Labour = Good
The regional swing is what's important.
May be too bullish on the blues, but my previous entry covered the Ungovernable Mess result, and I don't feel things have shifted for Labour (or against the SNP) since then.
I see I was still predicting a Lab majority, one of only about 5 people to do so - what on earth was I thinking? (FWIW, I still think they have a chance, but not a great one)
The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.
*If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.
It is terrible UI design.
Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.
Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
In both cases I solved the problem by deleting my accounts.
They were reported as being announced on Monday but they aren't in the manifesto.
I don't want the BBC's (or anyone else's) bullet point summary - I want the full details.
eg One change was to raise £800m by restricting CGT reliefs. I want to know exactly what they said.
Can anyone provide a link to the Lib Dem's announcement on this?
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
"Good evening. Will you be voting Labour on 7 May?"
[ ] Yes
[ ] Maybe
They seem to have missed an option. Either that or they have been using the same advisors as LinkedIn
However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.
I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.
If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
Cons UP 19
Lab down circa 24
LDs down 3
UKIP down 2
SNP up 7
On a serious note, it is pretty piss poor for the main parties not to have accessible versions of their manifestos though. In this day and age, it shouldn't really be "Kudos" for providing accessible versions, it is fairly straight forward to do so with modern technology.
*If* they have to do this, then do it out of election time.
*sigh!*
Now time to get on with the cooking.
It'd be interesting to see what happened to Cameron, though.
Mr. Jessop, that kind of things is bloody irritating.
Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance. So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
I'm not sure if the Speaker should, once selected, be still classed as an MP .
No article on the Lib Dem poll collapse yet? Strange, even Guido Fawkes has managed to cobble one together.
Lab 263
Lib Dem 10
UKIP 3
Green 1
SNP 55
C - 301
L - 252
LD - 23
UKIP - 3
Green - 1
SNP - 47
Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?
At which point the DUP and UKIP start to come into the picture if the Lib Dems have collapsed completely.
Taxi! Taxi!
Britain’s rotten electoral system means that once again it’s nose-peg time - Polly Toynbee
The new vote-swap site already has 100,000 voters signed up – with no publicity. This year vote-swappers could make all the difference.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
Con 315 (+6)
Lab 238 (-7)
LD 24 (-2)
UKIP 1 (-1)
Green 1 (=)
SNP 47 (+3)
It's tricky to make the matsh work for Dave not to be PM on 305 seats mind, Lib Dem score has to be very very low for Ed to be PM.
The magic number is 323
From Polly:
Only 135,000 super-votes will decide the result. That’s the 3% swayed either way in the 100 most marginal seats in current polls. We are all at the mercy of those happy few with golden tickets:
My GF's parents are in this bracket. 2010 Super Lib Dems in Pudsey - though my money is on the Tories there
Did I miss it back start of the day or something.
Heck - who knows?
In the meantime, another excellent article from Raphael Behr:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/the-making-of-ed-miliband
It was a something else area.
Wasn't it?
Which is first result to be called from there ?
It's just quite hard at the moment to see them winning that many.
Incidentally, if the Speaker is not re-elected Speaker, by convention s/he is transferred to the Lords, triggering a by-election anyway.
"If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.
EICIEPIPM
Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM."
I think if the Tories get 305 ... then Ed will have difficulty surviving as Labour leader, let alone get to be PM.
There must be many at the top of Labour who must be thinking, "I can do better than this”, as they look at Ed.
It is in their interest for Dave to run a minority Govt for a year or two, while they defenestrate Ed, and then pick their moment to challenge Dave.
Parties are not monoliths, if Ed ends up with a net loss or very modest gains .... then his party will eat him before Alex Salmond does.
I'm trying to come up with the result that'll cause the most outrage in the Daily Mail
It's a position to make it impossible for the SNP to support a Tory Queen speech even if it offered FFA.
Martin should never have been selected or appointed.
May I take the opportunity to add I think the HoL should be abolished.