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edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:

In February we ran our first competition using the Nojam.com template. Clearly things have moved on since then and this is the second wave. Entries will close AFTER the debate tomorrow night.

Read the full story here


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  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Incidentally, if my e-mail doesn't match that from the first competition, it's just because I forgot which one I used.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Second!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    FPT
    Dair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.

    Nicola doesn't want it either
    Its funny how independence could have been achieved in 18 months, but something much simpler like FFA will take 'several years'.......
    Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.

    Surely there's a whole bunch of other stuff to negotiate beyond just that?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Good timing on this as choice of thread. I can see the conspiracy theories already.

    I don't even remember what I predicted last time. Due to my stubbornly high Lab prediction but generous LD and SNP prediction, I couldn't get the seats to add up, so just randomly cut a few here and there with no reasoning.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Does speaker count as CON?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsUK: Just to put this poll into some sort of perspective, Monday's ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 - an 8.9% swing. This poll has it about 13%

    So ICM wasn't an outlier...?
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Oooooppps

    BBC News just said Nick Robinson takes a look at the Conservative manifesto and Nick Clegg .... :smile:

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    I am confused by this Labour policy on grandparents being able to share unpaid leave from work to look after grand kids. I thought the whole reason grandparents were increasingly been used by parents for child care etc was because they are retired AND DON'T WORK....and if they do work, are they likely to be in much better position to take unpaid leave than the kids parents?

    I would have thought a far better policy would be to target giving grandparents (who aren't in full time work) some sort of support if they look after kids. You see it all over the place, all these 70 year olds being dragged around by toddlers, acting as free child care.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Lib Dem response to ComRes / ITV poll is essentially: 'the sample is way too small' - http://t.co/rEZdcKkvR8 http://t.co/4bRa7g1bEg
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2015
    @Dair

    'Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.'

    Good luck with that,always good to dream.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Worth remembering its not only the LDs relying on the polls being wrong, its just the consequences of them being the ones who are wrong is higher in terms of percentage impact on total seats, but actually less in terms of victory or not.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.

    Nicola doesn't want it either
    Its funny how independence could have been achieved in 18 months, but something much simpler like FFA will take 'several years'.......
    Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.

    Surely there's a whole bunch of other stuff to negotiate beyond just that?
    I was focusing on the fiscal side of things.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Check you February entries here
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/18/after-this-weeks-pollercoaster-now-you-predict-the-election-in-pbs-prize-competition/
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am confused by this Labour policy

    Don't try to rationalise it. That way madness lies.

    Labour = Good
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsUK: Just to put this poll into some sort of perspective, Monday's ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 - an 8.9% swing. This poll has it about 13%

    So ICM wasn't an outlier...?

    And on ONS the swing from Labour to SNP is negative.

    The regional swing is what's important.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameschappers: .@ComResPolls in 14 Lib-held seats in SW shows 13-pt swing to CON: Con 44 Lib 26 LAB 13 UKIP 10. On uniform swing, all seats go CON
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Scott_P said:

    @NCPoliticsUK: Just to put this poll into some sort of perspective, Monday's ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 - an 8.9% swing. This poll has it about 13%

    So ICM wasn't an outlier...?

    Ashcroft's latest round of polling found a 4.8% swing from Lib Dem to Con, which is bad enough. If that were uniform 17 Lib Dem seats would go Blue in England and Wales. 13% seems implausible to me.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Smithson, cheers for that link (and thanks to Mr. Hopkins for the entry form, and Sporting Index for the prize).

    May be too bullish on the blues, but my previous entry covered the Ungovernable Mess result, and I don't feel things have shifted for Labour (or against the SNP) since then.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited April 2015
    I fear Mr. Loony may be a shade optimistic about Conservative prospects.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MikeSmithson said:

    Check you February entries here
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/18/after-this-weeks-pollercoaster-now-you-predict-the-election-in-pbs-prize-competition/

    A good cartoon, though I don't think many followed its advice.

    I see I was still predicting a Lab majority, one of only about 5 people to do so - what on earth was I thinking? (FWIW, I still think they have a chance, but not a great one)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    edited April 2015
    I forgot there were 632 seats in GB so can the competition hosts please delete my erroneous entry, the one doesn't add up to 632?

    :blush:
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    edited April 2015
    FPT:
    The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.

    *If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.

    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.
    Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2015
    FPT:
    JosiasJessop said:

    The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.

    *If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.

    It is terrible UI design.

    It is increasingly common and I find this sort of thing extremely irritating. Twitter has a similar approach and LinkedIn send emails and have links that appear to only have "Accept" or "Confirm" buttons - I cannot see any "Decline" or "Cancel" options.

    In both cases I solved the problem by deleting my accounts.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015
    FPT:
    RobD said:

    What is the most common candidate name?

    Anorak said:

    David, as a complete guess.

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a search but the problem is it'll include surnames as well so it's not perfect:
    David 134
    Ian 131
    John 130

    Who's the man? Me. *We Are The Champions plays* *Crowds cheer*
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Does anyone have a link to the Lib Dems detailed tax plans?

    They were reported as being announced on Monday but they aren't in the manifesto.

    I don't want the BBC's (or anyone else's) bullet point summary - I want the full details.

    eg One change was to raise £800m by restricting CGT reliefs. I want to know exactly what they said.

    Can anyone provide a link to the Lib Dem's announcement on this?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:
    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.

    You made me curious so I went and looked.

    "Good evening. Will you be voting Labour on 7 May?"
    [ ] Yes
    [ ] Maybe

    They seem to have missed an option. Either that or they have been using the same advisors as LinkedIn

  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Yes. Would be incredible but possible to see net Tory gains, net Lab losses and PM Ed.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:
    The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.

    *If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.

    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.
    Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.

    It depends on their design goals. If their website is intended to harvest supporters email addresses then they're doing the right thing.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Oops, pressed save at the wrong time. Entry "Anorak" to be deleted please, if you'd be so kind. Entry "Anorak (corrected, sorry)" to be retained. D is for Dunce.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2015
    I see the Tories do not accept "No" as an answer either.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Beverley_C said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:
    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.

    You made me curious so I went and looked.

    "Good evening. Will you be voting Labour on 7 May?"
    [ ] Yes
    [ ] Maybe

    They seem to have missed an option. Either that or they have been using the same advisors as LinkedIn

    The Lib Dem one pops up and says " Oh... Oh my god, a visitor! Did you click on us by mistake?"
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    As the main manifestos have been released, I thought I would do a quick accessibility scan for the manifestos. I don't have time to do a proper job, but my previous post shows a problem with Labour, Conservative and UKIP's sites.

    However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.

    I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.

    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2015
    MikeSmithson said:

    Check you February entries here
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/02/18/after-this-weeks-pollercoaster-now-you-predict-the-election-in-pbs-prize-competition/

    With the 52 entries so far the average prediction from the wisdom of PB has
    Cons UP 19
    Lab down circa 24
    LDs down 3
    UKIP down 2
    SNP up 7
  • Garethofthevale
    Garethofthevale Posts: 503
    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am confused by this Labour policy

    Don't try to rationalise it. That way madness lies.

    Labour = Good
    You mean 'double plus unbad'
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    If the LD collapse to the Tories is real, then the election really is going to be about whether the Tories can get enough seats to realistically govern on their own. Labour will do very well to stand still the way things are going.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited April 2015
    JosiasJessop said:

    As the main manifestos have been released, I thought I would do a quick accessibility scan for the manifestos. I don't have time to do a proper job, but my previous post shows a problem with Labour, Conservative and UKIP's sites.

    However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.

    I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.

    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...

    Given that's the Green's is basically incoherent and total BS...I think it would have been fitting if they got that bloke from Nelson Mandela's funeral to do the signing.

    On a serious note, it is pretty piss poor for the main parties not to have accessible versions of their manifestos though. In this day and age, it shouldn't really be "Kudos" for providing accessible versions, it is fairly straight forward to do so with modern technology.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:
    The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.

    *If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.

    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.
    Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.

    It depends on their design goals. If their website is intended to harvest supporters email addresses then they're doing the right thing.
    There's an election on. People want to read the manifestos and learn what the parties have to say, not give their emails out. Splash screens are just obstructionist nonsense that p*ss people off.

    *If* they have to do this, then do it out of election time.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:


    The Lib Dem one pops up and says " Oh... Oh my god, a visitor! Did you click on us by mistake?"

    D*mn! I had to go and look at that one too - I was so hoping that what you said was true. Alas, they just had their normal website. No prompts, no pop-ups, no "The only answers are YES or MAYBE" forms.

    *sigh!*

    :(
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    kle4 said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.

    Nicola doesn't want it either
    Its funny how independence could have been achieved in 18 months, but something much simpler like FFA will take 'several years'.......
    Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.

    Surely there's a whole bunch of other stuff to negotiate beyond just that?
    Is there? The colour of velvet on Salmond's throne is down to him, I would have thought.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    As the main manifestos have been released, I thought I would do a quick accessibility scan for the manifestos. I don't have time to do a proper job, but my previous post shows a problem with Labour, Conservative and UKIP's sites.

    However kudos to the Lib Dems for having Braille and audio versions available from the same page to download as the main manifesto, and Green go one better, with British Sign Language, audio, Braille and easy-read forms.

    I haven't done a comprehensive look for whether the other parties have done similar, but they don't appear to be linked to from the same page as the main manifesto.

    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...

    Given that's the Green is basically incoherent and total BS...I think it would have been fitting if they got that bloke from Nelson Mandela's funeral to do the signing.

    On a serious note, it is pretty piss poor for the main parties not to have accessible versions of their manifestos though.
    Absolute LOL!

    Now time to get on with the cooking.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Vale, it'd be ridiculous and would really piss people off.

    It'd be interesting to see what happened to Cameron, though.

    Mr. Jessop, that kind of things is bloody irritating.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    What about poor old Plaid Cymru? And the Speaker?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    I forgot there were 632 seats in GB so can the competition hosts please delete my erroneous entry, the one doesn't add up to 632?

    :blush:

    what about plaid? and galloway?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited April 2015
    Garethofthevale said:

    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
    Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.

    Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
    JosiasJessop said:


    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...

    So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    RobD said:

    Does speaker count as CON?

    He stands as independent, which shows Bercow is a bit of a laff in the end.
    I'm not sure if the Speaker should, once selected, be still classed as an MP .
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Observer, I forgot about Plaid and the Speaker. Ah well.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Flightpath said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.

    Nicola doesn't want it either
    Its funny how independence could have been achieved in 18 months, but something much simpler like FFA will take 'several years'.......
    Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.

    Surely there's a whole bunch of other stuff to negotiate beyond just that?
    Is there? The colour of velvet on Salmond's throne is down to him, I would have thought.
    That's easy - Vindaloo Brown to hide the food stains.

    No article on the Lib Dem poll collapse yet? Strange, even Guido Fawkes has managed to cobble one together.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    Garethofthevale said:

    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election.
    It wouldn't be able to pass anything.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    JosiasJessop said:

    anotherDave said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:
    The Conservatives have put a really user-unfriendly splash screen on their website, asking you to enter your email along with a large and obvious submit button. There is a 'skip to main site' link, but that is small and in the bottom-right corner.

    *If* they had to do this, they should have made the submit button for the form go to the main site regardless of whether the user entered anything.

    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.
    Edit 2: UKIP does the same thing, except theirs is slightly better: the skip link is much more obvious.

    It depends on their design goals. If their website is intended to harvest supporters email addresses then they're doing the right thing.
    There's an election on. People want to read the manifestos and learn what the parties have to say, not give their emails out. Splash screens are just obstructionist nonsense that p*ss people off.

    *If* they have to do this, then do it out of election time.
    I'm sure they weren't like it last week when I visited them.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Cons 300
    Lab 263
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 3
    Green 1
    SNP 55
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    If a sitting Speaker stands as an independent but is then not reappointed as Speaker, would the honourable thing be to stand down and force a by-election, either back under party colours or still as an independent? The people would not be getting what they thought they were getting after all.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited April 2015
    I have gone for the Tories ending up with about 50 more seats than Labour, but short of a majority and slightly down on their 2009 total.
    C - 301
    L - 252
    LD - 23
    UKIP - 3
    Green - 1
    SNP - 47
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SouthamObserver said:

    I have gone for the Tories ending up with about 50 more seats than Labour, but short of a majority and slightly down on their 2009 total.

    That sounds about right to me. JackW's ARSE is looking more and more robust all the time.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today (Daisy Farm, Greasley) and found some of scepticism about the Tory manifesto promises - "I liked them when they were getting the deficit down but I'm confused by this good fairy stuff - though I think you're rubbish too", as one said wryly.

    Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    LOL
    kle4 said:

    Beverley_C said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT:
    It is terrible UI design.

    Edit 1: and Labour's is, if anything, even worse.

    You made me curious so I went and looked.

    "Good evening. Will you be voting Labour on 7 May?"
    [ ] Yes
    [ ] Maybe

    They seem to have missed an option. Either that or they have been using the same advisors as LinkedIn

    The Lib Dem one pops up and says " Oh... Oh my god, a visitor! Did you click on us by mistake?"
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    Every Conservative gain from Lib Dem doesn't affect the PM mathematics until Conservative total starts heading above 300 or so.

    At which point the DUP and UKIP start to come into the picture if the Lib Dems have collapsed completely.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    kle4 said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
    Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.

    Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
    JosiasJessop said:


    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...

    So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
    If the Conservatives won 305 seats they'd have a very clear majority in England and Wales, and I think it would be difficult for a party that had very clearly come second in England and Wales to govern, even if an anti-Tory coalition could be cobbled together.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Flightpath said:

    RobD said:

    Does speaker count as CON?

    He stands as independent, which shows Bercow is a bit of a laff in the end.
    I'm not sure if the Speaker should, once selected, be still classed as an MP .
    As a PS - as far as I know Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, voted against the secret ballot for Speaker, (I do not think she voted for it anyway) this despite her regular arguments against the supposed archaic traditions of the House of Commons.
  • rogerh
    rogerh Posts: 282
    Does the Comres LD marginals poll ask question in same way as Ashcroft
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2015
    Lib-Dems facing oblivion in the south-west, quoted on ITN news a few minutes ago.

    Taxi! Taxi!

    :smiley::smiley::smiley::smiley::smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited April 2015
    In perhaps the least surprising news of the election campaign....Polly advocates use of nose-peg.

    Britain’s rotten electoral system means that once again it’s nose-peg time - Polly Toynbee

    The new vote-swap site already has 100,000 voters signed up – with no publicity. This year vote-swappers could make all the difference.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/britain-rotten-electoral-system-nose-peg-vote-swap-tories-out
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sorely tempted to stick and go for the jackpot!

    Con 315 (+6)
    Lab 238 (-7)
    LD 24 (-2)
    UKIP 1 (-1)
    Green 1 (=)
    SNP 47 (+3)
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    rogerh said:

    Does the Comres LD marginals poll ask question in same way as Ashcroft

    Does Ashcroft ask the question the same way each time? (I only ask as he may not even use the same polling company each time)
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    I always forget this - without the Speaker and Sinn Fein, what is the de facto majority in the Commons?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
    Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.

    Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
    JosiasJessop said:


    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...

    So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
    If the Conservatives won 305 seats they'd have a very clear majority in England and Wales, and I think it would be difficult for a party that had very clearly come second in England and Wales to govern, even if an anti-Tory coalition could be cobbled together.
    And Scotland has an almost 100% anti-Tory majority.

    It's tricky to make the matsh work for Dave not to be PM on 305 seats mind, Lib Dem score has to be very very low for Ed to be PM.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT

    Dair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:

    As neither the Tories nor Labour want to do that, that rather implies there is more to the matter than that.

    Nicola doesn't want it either
    Its funny how independence could have been achieved in 18 months, but something much simpler like FFA will take 'several years'.......
    Independence requires a negotiation on how much, if any, of Westminster's debt Scotland makes a voluntary contribution to.

    Surely there's a whole bunch of other stuff to negotiate beyond just that?
    I was focusing on the fiscal side of things.
    And that would take less time to negotiate than FFA?
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,220
    Flightpath said:

    rogerh said:

    Does the Comres LD marginals poll ask question in same way as Ashcroft

    Does Ashcroft ask the question the same way each time? (I only ask as he may not even use the same polling company each time)
    Does anyone have a link to the COMRES LD marginal poll questions and tables?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    I always forget this - without the Speaker and Sinn Fein, what is the de facto majority in the Commons?

    You shouldn't really discount the Speaker, because of how the deputies work. In fact Bercow should be added to the Tories' numbers for this purpose.

    The magic number is 323
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015
    Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?

    Did I miss it back start of the day or something.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    SouthamObserver said:

    I always forget this - without the Speaker and Sinn Fein, what is the de facto majority in the Commons?

    323

    From Polly:


    Only 135,000 super-votes will decide the result. That’s the 3% swayed either way in the 100 most marginal seats in current polls. We are all at the mercy of those happy few with golden tickets:

    My GF's parents are in this bracket. 2010 Super Lib Dems in Pudsey - though my money is on the Tories there ;)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2015
    Purseybear said:

    Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?

    We don't discuss the Lib-Dem's impending meltdown... ;)
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SouthamObserver said:

    I have gone for the Tories ending up with about 50 more seats than Labour, but short of a majority and slightly down on their 2009 total.
    C - 301
    L - 252
    LD - 23
    UKIP - 3
    Green - 1
    SNP - 47

    I'd have the gap nearer 30 - which makes the SNP vs Lib Dem result all the more intriguing....

    Heck - who knows?

    In the meantime, another excellent article from Raphael Behr:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/the-making-of-ed-miliband
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-south-west-lib-dem-tory-battlegrounds/
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    NickPalmer said:

    Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today ... Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power

    Nick. That wasn't a Tory area.

    It was a something else area.

    Wasn't it?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    GIN1138 said:

    Purseybear said:

    Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?

    We don't discuss the Lib-Dem's impending meltdown... ;)
    AudreyAnne is looking like a soothsayer lol
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    edited April 2015
    Flightpath said:

    as far as I know Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, voted against the secret ballot for Speaker

    There is this useful thing called Hansard where the votes of MPs in divisions are faithfully recorded so noone ever has to rely on posters like you making stuff up.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Well the Southwest will tell us if Ashcroft was right or if Comres was.

    Which is first result to be called from there ?
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    If the Conservatives have 305 seats, that would be just enough to put together a feasible government with the support of the Democratic Unionists and occasional support from whatever is left of the LibDems on a confidence and supply basis.

    It's just quite hard at the moment to see them winning that many.

    Incidentally, if the Speaker is not re-elected Speaker, by convention s/he is transferred to the Lords, triggering a by-election anyway.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Well the Southwest will tell us if Ashcroft was right or if Comres was.

    Which is first result to be called from there ?

    Torbay? They are normally one of the first to declare I think.

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well the Southwest will tell us if Ashcroft was right or if Comres was.

    Which is first result to be called from there ?

    Torbay? The are normally one of the first to declare I think.

    Doubtful - full council and elected mayor at the same time.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Cons 300
    Lab 263
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 3
    Green 1
    SNP 55

    You betting on that, or is it a tactical entry for the competition?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    @JohnLoony - LOL!
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Purseybear said:

    Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?

    Did I miss it back start of the day or something.

    This squirrel thread has been saved for a special occasion such as this ;-)
  • YBarddCwsc
    YBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    "If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM."

    I think if the Tories get 305 ... then Ed will have difficulty surviving as Labour leader, let alone get to be PM.

    There must be many at the top of Labour who must be thinking, "I can do better than this”, as they look at Ed.

    It is in their interest for Dave to run a minority Govt for a year or two, while they defenestrate Ed, and then pick their moment to challenge Dave.

    Parties are not monoliths, if Ed ends up with a net loss or very modest gains .... then his party will eat him before Alex Salmond does.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Yellow Taxi Time would be wasting their money on hiring one given his/her prediction.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cons 300
    Lab 263
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 3
    Green 1
    SNP 55

    You betting on that, or is it a tactical entry for the competition?
    A bit of both to be honest.

    I'm trying to come up with the result that'll cause the most outrage in the Daily Mail :D
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    GIN1138 said:

    Purseybear said:

    Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?

    We don't discuss the Lib-Dem's impending meltdown... ;)
    ha ok fair enough. Looks like they're in big trouble down there. someone told me tories are piling in campaigning. If they lose all 14 seats tory majority looks more poss.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Graham Hedley thinks Ed Miliband truly is crap.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    NickPalmer said:

    Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today (Daisy Farm, Greasley) and found some of scepticism about the Tory manifesto promises - "I liked them when they were getting the deficit down but I'm confused by this good fairy stuff - though I think you're rubbish too", as one said wryly.

    Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?

    An octogenarian would (at most) have been 8 when Hitler took power, quite possibly younger....
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cons 300
    Lab 263
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 3
    Green 1
    SNP 55

    You betting on that, or is it a tactical entry for the competition?
    A bit of both to be honest.

    I'm trying to come up with the result that'll cause the most outrage in the Daily Mail :D
    That would cause a lot of outrage!!
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,256
    CarlottaVance said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Anecdote department: canvassed a Tory area today (Daisy Farm, Greasley) and found some of scepticism about the Tory manifesto promises - "I liked them when they were getting the deficit down but I'm confused by this good fairy stuff - though I think you're rubbish too", as one said wryly.

    Met one voter, a sweet-looking octagenarian, who said he thought Hitler was pretty sound when he took power, "though he overdid things a bit later on". I said frostily that we'd have to agree to disagree - he said amiably that was fine, have a nice day. Wind-up? Sincerely bonkers? Who knows?

    An octogenarian would (at most) have been 8 when Hitler took power, quite possibly younger....
    Or quite possibly not born (1935). I would guess it was a wind-up.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    On Sturgeon/SNP saying the FFA needs to be introduced gradually/over time.

    It's a position to make it impossible for the SNP to support a Tory Queen speech even if it offered FFA.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    kle4 said:

    If a sitting Speaker stands as an independent but is then not reappointed as Speaker, would the honourable thing be to stand down and force a by-election, either back under party colours or still as an independent? The people would not be getting what they thought they were getting after all.

    Its a shame the Speakership has been politicised under labour.
    Martin should never have been selected or appointed.
    May I take the opportunity to add I think the HoL should be abolished.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    GIN1138 said:

    Purseybear said:

    Hey came on here expecting detailed thread on the LD-Con SW marginals poll from ComRes/ITV. Whatsup?

    We don't discuss the Lib-Dem's impending meltdown... ;)
    Unless it involves "Why Dave can't win"....(which ironically, my be one of the chief causes of Dave not winning!)
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2015
    Polly Toynbee said:
    by next Monday’s deadline, even more may be missing due to David Cameron’s gerrymandering change that barred everyone in a household from registering on one form
    When did this gerrymandering change come in? We had only one form for this household a few months back. I remember because I filled it in.
    ... how best to stop a Cameron second term? Pause here to contemplate what a Tory win threatens – such as leaving the EU, a £12bn cut in benefits, climate denial, an end to social housing, and a 1930s-sized state.
    I always think this sort of attitude explains why Labour does so badly in government. Their main electoral policy seems to be to "Keep the tories out" and everything else is simply a means to that end. Once Labour are in govt the Tories ARE out and it is a case of "Now what?" and so they start fiddling and shuffling and so forth. I think the average cabinet minister under Labour lasted about 9 months between 2007 and 2010 - Hello I must be going. ID cards had a different rationale every few weeks, policies seemed to come and go with dizzying speed.



  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Alistair said:

    On Sturgeon/SNP saying the FFA needs to be introduced gradually/over time.

    It's a position to make it impossible for the SNP to support a Tory Queen speech even if it offered FFA.

    Wonderful politics.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Garethofthevale said:

    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the LD's collapse and given SLAB collapse what are the odds that the Tories have net gains and/or Lab net losses?

    If the Lib Dems go below 10 then the Tories can win 305 seats and lose.

    EICIEPIPM

    Ed Is Crap In Everyone's Pocket Is PM.
    Surely if the Cons were to win 305 seats then it would realistically be Con minority as the Cons would be seen to have won the election. I can't see a "Coalition of the losers" going down well.
    Maybe not, but I think you underestimate how such a coalition could last a considerable distance nevertheless. All Lab have to do in that situation, if they want to appear fair, is say the Tories will get the first go. There's no guarantee they could get or want the LDs on board, so they could try for a minority, but Lab could say that the country wants a majority government, and given the Tories failed to arrange one, it's their turn to try.

    Many wouldn't like it, but coalitions are clearly here to stay, and its not that unheard of for the largest party to not end up in power in such situations, and if Lab were to take over instead with outside support, they'd quickly lose popularity once it turns out cuts will still happen, and so have incentive to ignore the anger and stick it out the full distance.
    JosiasJessop said:


    If so, shame on them. This might just make me vote Lib Dem ...

    So the manifestos (or in this case the accessing of them) might actually directly sway at least one person? That should make the authors happy at least.
    If the Conservatives won 305 seats they'd have a very clear majority in England and Wales, and I think it would be difficult for a party that had very clearly come second in England and Wales to govern, even if an anti-Tory coalition could be cobbled together.
    And Scotland has an almost 100% anti-Tory majority.

    It's tricky to make the matsh work for Dave not to be PM on 305 seats mind, Lib Dem score has to be very very low for Ed to be PM.
    If the LDs didn't do a deal - either due to numbers, leaders or willingness - and UKIP/DUP couldn't make up the difference it would be a Conservative government in office, but not in power.
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