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System · April 2015

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And as Marf reminds us today was the day when LAB published its manifesto

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eek · April 2015

first (to my surprise)

EPG · April 2015

Excellent. FPT If nobody comments on the Labour manifesto after a few hours, job done. There are no good news stories in this election. There are only attacks to divert the banal uniformity of cyncial and hostile media attention onto the other crowd(s).

kle4 · April 2015

The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.

kle4 · April 2015

EPG said:
Excellent. FPT If nobody comments on the Labour manifesto after a few hours, job done. There are no good news stories in this election. There are only attacks to divert the banal uniformity of cyncial and hostile media attention onto the other crowd(s).

I can see that. Virtually no one reads the things (this is the first election I've read one properly), and with no majority probable for anyone the promises in them are even less cast iron than usual, so if one side can avoid more than the usual amount of opponent scorn they should be fine. People know how they feel about the parties anyway, they can say pretty much anything between now and the GE, manifesto or not, but it'll be easier if people essentially forget what was in it.

Jonathan · April 2015

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position

!!

GIN1138 · April 2015

Any rumours re. YouGov tonight?

foxinsoxuk · April 2015

Great Cartoon Marf!

Is that Nick Palmer perchance...

Beverley_C · April 2015

Hmmm... did Marf know I was popping back here today? If the woman in the cartoon was a brunette instead of a blonde ....

Icarus · April 2015

I completed a You Gov poll tonight so expect an improvement in the Lib Dem score

felix · April 2015

GIN1138 said:
Any rumours re. YouGov tonight?

Tye daily polls encourages an over-reliance on YG compared to other pollsters. I'm not sure they're telling us anything new at the moment - beyond no real change.

Jonathan · April 2015

Icarus said:
I completed a You Gov poll tonight so expect an improvement in the Lib Dem score

Potentially doubled.

Dair · April 2015

Telling rumour currently doing the rounds.

Jim Murphy has now declined invitation to appear on Scotland Tonight this evening. No show the day Labour launch their manifesto. Ouch.

Dair · April 2015

Interesting that Labour is reliant on the older vote but there's plenty of older faces turning out for the SNP in Motherwell.

https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/587711208138084356

Just look at that turnout for a branch meeting. In Labour's industrial heartland. A full 59 really is on.

Scott_P · April 2015

Nicola Sturgeon is to appear on ITV’s The Agenda with Tom Bradby at 11.10pm tonight. As the show is pre-recorded, I have a copy of what she will be saying.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/13/election-2015-live-ed-miliband-labour-party-manifesto

Tabman · April 2015

Icarus said:
I completed a You Gov poll tonight so expect an improvement in the Lib Dem score

Icarus as I live and breathe!

MaxPB · April 2015

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.

I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.

Scott_P · April 2015

MaxPB said:
they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.

Anyone remember "Too far, too fast"?

GIN1138 · April 2015

Dair said:
Telling rumour currently doing the rounds.

Jim Murphy has now declined invitation to appear on Scotland Tonight this evening. No show the day Labour launch their manifesto. Ouch.

Coulson trial put back to after the election, as predicted by myself weeks ago;

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/13/andy-coulson-perjury-trial-delayed-until-after-general-election

....

chestnut · April 2015

Ed is going to get absolutely slaughtered on Thursday by Sturgeon and co. He had best hope that no one watches.

taffys · April 2015

''In Labour's industrial heartland. A full 59 really is on.''

Are you sure that isn;t the first episode of that new game show ''spot the tax payer?''

foxinsoxuk · April 2015

PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

2) A discussion at coffee break with two medical colleagues (1 Sri Lankan Tamil, 1 from Tamil Nadu). Both live in Leicester West. 1 Tory, 1 Labour (this is Liz Kendalls seat). Both were impressed by how multicultural their home countries had become. The Indian one said that he never heard a Tamil on a building site any more, only Hindi, Orissan and Bihari. Shop assistants the same. The Sri Lankan commented that there was now a significant Chinese and also Somalian population in Columbo now. The Indian Tamil replied that there was a growing Chinese and Nigerian population in Bangalore too.

Fox's anecdote predictor: Bangalore surprise UKIP gain!

Flightpath · April 2015

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.

Labour need quantum voters to go with their quantum economics.
What Labour have is Schroedinger's manifesto in a box.

kle4 · April 2015

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.

I guess my view is that while it makes sense that they should leak votes to the anti-austerity parties, they just won't outside Scotland, even if they should, making the loss of massive numbers more trusting them on economic issues not the problem it should be.

Jonathan said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position
!!

I stand by that phrasing.

Tabman · April 2015

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Sunil_Prasannan · April 2015

Nice cartoon, Marf! Self-portrait?

Sunil_Prasannan · April 2015

chestnut said:
Ed is going to get absolutely slaughtered on Thursday by Sturgeon and co. He had best hope that no one watches.

And poor Dave chickened out!

foxinsoxuk · April 2015

Flightpath said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.
Labour need quantum voters to go with their quantum economics.
What Labour have is Schroedinger's manifesto in a box.

Oooh! Very Big Bang Theory: Labours Schroedinger Manifesto. Like!!

OldKingCole · April 2015

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

2) A discussion at coffee break with two medical colleagues (1 Sri Lankan Tamil, 1 from Tamil Nadu). Both live in Leicester West. 1 Tory, 1 Labour (this is Liz Kendalls seat). Both were impressed by how multicultural their home countries had become. The Indian one said that he never heard a Tamil on a building site any more, only Hindi, Orissan and Bihari. Shop assistants the same. The Sri Lankan commented that there was now a significant Chinese and also Somalian population in Columbo now. The Indian Tamil replied that there was a growing Chinese and Nigerian population in Bangalore too.

Fox's anecdote predictor: Bangalore surprise UKIP gain!

Postal votes from the Second Best Marigold Hotel?

Flightpath · April 2015

Scott_P said:
Nicola Sturgeon is to appear on ITV’s The Agenda with Tom Bradby at 11.10pm tonight. As the show is pre-recorded, I have a copy of what she will be saying.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/13/election-2015-live-ed-miliband-labour-party-manifesto

Now we have time travelling interviews...

MarkHopkins · April 2015

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

kle4 · April 2015

chestnut said:
Ed is going to get absolutely slaughtered on Thursday by Sturgeon and co. He had best hope that no one watches.

He has been preparing for this type of moment for years, he hasn't yet been slaughtered by anything people have predicted he would be by now; I don't think it's as certain he will be as people think.

JackW · April 2015

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

So the LibDems were responsible for the Hatton Garden safety deposit box heist !!

Dair · April 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Flightpath said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.
Labour need quantum voters to go with their quantum economics.
What Labour have is Schroedinger's manifesto in a box.
Oooh! Very Big Bang Theory: Labours Schroedinger Manifesto. Like!!

The problem for Labour is that they place a dead cat in the box.

Scott_P · April 2015

Here's an interesting development...

Labour will not fund the NHS, cos it doesn't need it, says Burnham

@faisalislam: So Labour's @andyburnhammp takes issue with fundamental premise that Simon Stevens NHS 5yr view (asking for £8bn real) is way forward

@CharlieCooper8: Burnham: "£8bn for NHS in 5 years time not the issue now", says Con/LDs "moving goalposts". Interesting ivw @HSJnews http://t.co/JOXw4vRiV4

Mortimer · April 2015

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Indeed. Because if they couldn't hold on to it in 2010 on the back of a wave of Cleggy popularity, of course it will be GAINED when LD vote is in the doldrums!

Tissue_Price · April 2015

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

Someone work out which these are, please

Mortimer · April 2015

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

< metropolitan logic> Indeed. Because if they couldn't hold on to it in 2010 on the back of a wave of Cleggy popularity, of course it will be GAINED when LD vote is in the doldrums!
< /metropolitian logic>

tlg86 · April 2015

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

I took the scenic route to football in Burnley on Saturday and I saw a Labour poster on Newbold Road on the way out of Chesterfield, a Tory poster somewhere near Hathersage and a lot of Gordon Birtwhistle posters on the way into Burnley.

Cyclefree · April 2015

Never mind the election: after a week of lovely spring weather I have been horribly bitten all down one leg by some ghastly insect or other and now have red hot lumps to contend with. It almost makes going back to the office bearable. While I will miss being out in my garden (a real heartache for me) at least I only risk being bitten by the mice that regularly infest our office. What with beating off rodents and City rats, it's never a dull moment in my team......

Anyway off to bed. Feel quite unwell and I note that North by Northwest is on so maybe falling asleep while watching Cary Grant and Eva Marie Saint will make things better.

Luckyguy1983 · April 2015

'Russian sub' lost in Swedish waters that sent the whole world into frenzies earlier in the year confirmed as a 'work boat' by Sweden. http://rt.com/news/249109-sweden-submarine-hunt-workboat/

As usual, the story unravels, but of course by now no-one cares, the information merry-go-round has moved on, the next 'Putin' scandal awaits.

Artist · April 2015

Rossendale and Darwen is definitely one, I saw someone on Twitter mention being polled.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/

Milton Keynes South down to Stafford. I think Labour could be ahead in two ( Rossendale + South Ribble)

Tabman · April 2015

JackW said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

So the LibDems were responsible for the Hatton Garden safety deposit box heist !!

You read it here first Jack ;-)

Tabman · April 2015

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Indeed. Because if they couldn't hold on to it in 2010 on the back of a wave of Cleggy popularity, of course it will be GAINED when LD vote is in the doldrums!

I'd better turn up the irony generators a bit higher ;-)

TheScreamingEagles · April 2015

Tissue_Price said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

Someone work out which these are, please

Dudley South, Great Yarmouth, Dover, Rossendale & Darwen, Cleethorpes, North East Somerset, Milton Keynes South, High Peak and Norwich North

JackW · April 2015

Tabman said:

JackW said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

So the LibDems were responsible for the Hatton Garden safety deposit box heist !!

You read it here first Jack ;-)

Evan Harris is handy with a diamond tipped drill ?!? ... well it's one way to encourage the voters to go for his yellow peril successor !!

TheScreamingEagles · April 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

Someone work out which these are, please
Dudley South, Great Yarmouth, Dover, Rossendale & Darwen, Cleethorpes, North East Somerset, Milton Keynes South, High Peak and Norwich North

Note, this is rampant speculation on my part.

Mortimer · April 2015

Tabman said:

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Indeed. Because if they couldn't hold on to it in 2010 on the back of a wave of Cleggy popularity, of course it will be GAINED when LD vote is in the doldrums!
I'd better turn up the irony generators a bit higher ;-)

Not at all. In fact, I need to remember that Vanilla strips out anything that even looks like code. So my supposedly clever use of < metropolitan logic> < /metropolitan logic> tags didn't display the first time ;-(

Tabman · April 2015

Tabman said:

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Indeed. Because if they couldn't hold on to it in 2010 on the back of a wave of Cleggy popularity, of course it will be GAINED when LD vote is in the doldrums!
That, and Evan Harris was an ARSE.

JackW · April 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

Someone work out which these are, please
Dudley South, Great Yarmouth, Dover, Rossendale & Darwen, Cleethorpes, North East Somerset, Milton Keynes South, High Peak and Norwich North
Note, this is rampant speculation on my part.

You have form.

Luckyguy1983 · April 2015

Dair said:
Interesting that Labour is reliant on the older vote but there's plenty of older faces turning out for the SNP in Motherwell.

https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/587711208138084356

Just look at that turnout for a branch meeting. In Labour's industrial heartland. A full 59 really is on.

'Plenty of' is putting it mildly. Looks like bingo night at Bayview.

GIN1138 · April 2015

Tissue_Price said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

Someone work out which these are, please

The Good Lord AND Jack's ARSE first thing on a Tuesday morning!!!!!!!

Someone will be crying into their cornflakes...

oxfordsimon · April 2015

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!

Peter_the_Punter · April 2015

The Labour guy does look rather like NickP....

Tabman · April 2015

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

Mortimer said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Indeed. Because if they couldn't hold on to it in 2010 on the back of a wave of Cleggy popularity, of course it will be GAINED when LD vote is in the doldrums!
I'd better turn up the irony generators a bit higher ;-)

Not at all. In fact, I need to remember that Vanilla strips out anything that even looks like code. So my supposedly clever use of < metropolitan logic> < /metropolitan logic> tags didn't display the first time ;-(

No problem Mortimer!

Evan's successor gives Nichola a run for her money in the fragrancy stakes

Artist · April 2015

Some interesting three way marginals- Dover, Cleethorpes, Dudley South and Great Yarmouth, provided UKIP are still polling well.

foxinsoxuk · April 2015

Tabman said:

That, and Evan Harris was an ARSE.

I agree. Even I didnt like Dr Harris.

The Lovely Layla would get my vote:

http://www.laylamoran.com/

Tabman · April 2015

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!

Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.

JackW · April 2015

Dair said:
Interesting that Labour is reliant on the older vote but there's plenty of older faces turning out for the SNP in Motherwell.

https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/587711208138084356

SNP activists hear malcolmg has drowned in a vat of turnip soup.

Mortimer · April 2015

Tabman said:

When I was up he came out with some 'popular studenty politix' that didn't wash here. Then the boundary changes handily removed the central Oxford wards (including most of the halls) from his constituency. Was the highlight of my night that he lost. Almost better that it was narrow - I imagine thoughts of 'one more night/street of canvassing' going through LD minds...

JohnLilburne · April 2015

Luckyguy1983 said:
'Russian sub' lost in Swedish waters that sent the whole world into frenzies earlier in the year confirmed as a 'work boat' by Sweden. http://rt.com/news/249109-sweden-submarine-hunt-workboat/

As usual, the story unravels, but of course by now no-one cares, the information merry-go-round has moved on, the next 'Putin' scandal awaits.

Interestingly, if you use a non-Russian source, they state that the first incident last autumn was probably a foreign submarine, perhaps understandably after the flap that ensued, a second one seems to have probably been a misidentified civilian vessel. http://www.thelocal.se/20150413/suspected-sub-in-swedish-waters-was-working-boat

Flightpath · April 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Flightpath said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.
Labour need quantum voters to go with their quantum economics.
What Labour have is Schroedinger's manifesto in a box.
Oooh! Very Big Bang Theory: Labours Schroedinger Manifesto. Like!!

Bizarre things happen when you drill down to Labour's level of reality which could never happen in the real world.

Casino_Royale · April 2015

Great cartoon Marf.

Also great to see Icarus and Tabman back.

oxfordsimon · April 2015

Tabman said:

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.

Well that is North Oxford for you...

But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets

No_Offence_Alan · April 2015

Tabman said:

Icarus said:
I completed a You Gov poll tonight so expect an improvement in the Lib Dem score
Icarus as I live and breathe!

Good to see you posting again, Tabman!

Alistair · April 2015

FTPT

HYUFD said:
Dair In Feb the SNP had a 48% with yougov, a 47% with Survation, in March's Survation they were on 47%, 46% with yougov, 49% in 9th April's yougov, even a 1% gain since Feb would only draw the SNP level with Murphy. The big change was October when the SNP went from the thirties to the forty percents

For me it's about the SNP lead not the SNP vote share.

And the lead is doing this since the start of the year

The SNP vote share has barely ticked up. The Lab vote share, however, is noticeably declining.

Barnesian · April 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

Someone work out which these are, please
Dudley South, Great Yarmouth, Dover, Rossendale & Darwen, Cleethorpes, North East Somerset, Milton Keynes South, High Peak and Norwich North

All these are basically deadheats - within 1%.

If you had to call them then Dudley S, Gt Yarmouth and Dover are Con holds (just).
The rest are Lab gains (just).

FrancisUrquhart · April 2015

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/587720258213048320

JohnLilburne · April 2015

Flightpath said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Flightpath said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.
Labour need quantum voters to go with their quantum economics.
What Labour have is Schroedinger's manifesto in a box.
Oooh! Very Big Bang Theory: Labours Schroedinger Manifesto. Like!!

Bizarre things happen when you drill down to Labour's level of reality which could never happen in the real world.

The bit on the constitution is so much bullshit. Plenty of weasel words, no detail (how would this "Senate of the Regions and Nations" be elected, exactly?) "Devolution to cities and regions" looks more like regional gauleiters. England will continue to be a colony.

foxinsoxuk · April 2015

Peter_the_Punter said:
The Labour guy does look rather like NickP....

Marf is right though. Labour cannot sell austerity. The first rule of sales is "Believe in the product" the second is "know your customer".

Dair · April 2015

Ah the internet is a wonderful thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs_otHoMaKo

https://twitter.com/stvclaire/status/587657530064658432

Artist · April 2015

The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.

Danny565 · April 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Peter_the_Punter said:
The Labour guy does look rather like NickP....
Marf is right though. Labour cannot sell austerity. The first rule of sales is "Believe in the product" the second is "know your customer".

Yup.

It's ironic that, for all the prattling that the "Blairite" wing of Labour do about being pro-business, they actually know nothing about how successful businesses market themselves. You have to emphasise your USP, you don't try to adopt the USP of your main rival and come off like a second-rate imitation of it.

Fairly sure this will be remembered as the day Labour lost the election.

SquareRoot · April 2015

Can anyone please tell me what level of support Labour and the Conservatives are getting in the polls from those who did not vote in 2010 svp

Flightpath · April 2015

Scott_P said:
Here's an interesting development...

Labour will not fund the NHS, cos it doesn't need it, says Burnham

@faisalislam: So Labour's @andyburnhammp takes issue with fundamental premise that Simon Stevens NHS 5yr view (asking for £8bn real) is way forward

@CharlieCooper8: Burnham: "£8bn for NHS in 5 years time not the issue now", says Con/LDs "moving goalposts". Interesting ivw @HSJnews http://t.co/JOXw4vRiV4

How many times can Labour's leadership be undermined in one day? How credible can labour be on the NHS?

DavidL · April 2015

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/587720258213048320

That is just brilliant.

DavidL · April 2015

Should have said that Marf's cartoon is spot on too.

As I said earlier today I think that Ed Balls is suddenly thinking he might need to do this. Ironically addressing the consequences of that makes it just that little bit less likely.

isam · April 2015

@RossM

If you are still lurking and want to repeat what you said you can call me or meet up and say it to my face.

Message me

Scott_P · April 2015

@carrieapples: Front page of tomorrow's Telegraph - Cameron: "We are the true party of working people" http://t.co/pAj1zIVV47

Casino_Royale · April 2015

MarkHopkins said:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/587715495714930689

On my list:

Milton Keynes South
Rossendale & Darwen
Cleethorpes
North East Somerset
Great Yarmouth
Dudley South
Dover
South Ribble
Peterborough
Stafford
Stourbridge
Harlow

All should be comfortable Con holds, except Dudley South. Great Yarmouth and Dover will prob have UKIP in 2nd.

Danny565 · April 2015

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:
The joy of the Labour position is they still get the votes of those opposed to austerity, while still able to campaign for those who think we need some of it (or at least shouldn't go wild with spending) with intense promising of fiscal responsibility. Really if it were not for that not working in Scotland (it still does in England), it would definitely work, rather than merely probably work.
I would say after today their position is literally the other way around. They are going to leak votes to the true anti-austerity parties and will not gain the votes of people who are in favour it as they are not trusted on economic matters by anyone who has been paying attention by the end of their five years of denial of any cuts.
I guess my view is that while it makes sense that they should leak votes to the anti-austerity parties, they just won't outside Scotland, even if they should, making the loss of massive numbers more trusting them on economic issues not the problem it should be.

I agree that outside of Scotland they're not going to leak anti-austerity votes to other parties (especially now that UKIP have given up on Red Kippers), the real danger is that English anti-austerity voters are going to stay on the couch.

Plus it says to swing voters "there's no difference between the parties on the policies, therefore you may as well just vote for who you think the best PM is".

Dair · April 2015

Artist said:
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.

A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY".
Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses".
NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".

Can't see this being a winner.

Ave_it · April 2015

Any polls later?

Scott_P · April 2015

@carrieapples: Express front page: Maggie's 'right to buy' dream is back - @Conservatives housing plan will help 1.3m families http://t.co/zAzgr6RQgX

kle4 · April 2015

Scott_P said:
@carrieapples: Front page of tomorrow's Telegraph - Cameron: "We are the true party of working people" http://t.co/pAj1zIVV47

That could be completely true and virtually no-one would believe it, but fair play going bold on the message regardless I guess.

OldKingCole · April 2015

Dair said:

Artist said:
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY".
Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses".
NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".

Can't see this being a winner.

Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?

Luckyguy1983 · April 2015

JohnLilburne said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
'Russian sub' lost in Swedish waters that sent the whole world into frenzies earlier in the year confirmed as a 'work boat' by Sweden. http://rt.com/news/249109-sweden-submarine-hunt-workboat/

As usual, the story unravels, but of course by now no-one cares, the information merry-go-round has moved on, the next 'Putin' scandal awaits.
Interestingly, if you use a non-Russian source, they state that the first incident last autumn was probably a foreign submarine, perhaps understandably after the flap that ensued, a second one seems to have probably been a misidentified civilian vessel. http://www.thelocal.se/20150413/suspected-sub-in-swedish-waters-was-working-boat

I'm frankly impressed you found a non-Russian source at all.

isam · April 2015

Scott_P said:
@carrieapples: Front page of tomorrow's Telegraph - Cameron: "We are the true party of working people" http://t.co/pAj1zIVV47

Except when we depress their wages through mass immigration

kingbongo · April 2015

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.

Well that is North Oxford for you...

But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets

I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW

Casino_Royale · April 2015

Artist said:
Rossendale and Darwen is definitely one, I saw someone on Twitter mention being polled.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/

Milton Keynes South down to Stafford. I think Labour could be ahead in two ( Rossendale + South Ribble)

South Ribble the incumbent MP is not restanding for the Tories, which won't help.

Will Straw is standing in Rossendale. The name may help, or hinder. There seem to be quite a few extra candidates too.

Tabman · April 2015

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.

Well that is North Oxford for you...

But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets

I'm under no illusions about that :-)

But there are a lot orange diamonds about.

bunnco · April 2015

Been out on the doorstep in Gt Yarmouth [UKIP deflating fast] and Norwich North [Chloe Smith has made remarkable progress getting 1800 youngsters into work with her 'Norwich for Jobs' campaign].

In Yarmouth, Labour's candidate has terrible name-recognition and could hardly string two words together coherently on a recent Radio Norfolk debate. Meanwhile the Labour-run Council has closed the public toilets in this holiday town... and hired a Council chief exec on a grand-a-day. Tory Hold.

In Norwich North, Labour's Jess Asato has sometimes benefitted from the halo-effect from front benchers visiting to bolster ex-BBC hack Clive Lewis [no skeletons in his cupboard, oh no! :winks:] in Norwich South but has still been absent without leave for the last few months. It's easy to forget that most of Norwich North is quite comfy surburbia and solidly Tory even if the bits close to the centre that the journos visit are blocks of flats with Labour posters. Tight but Chloe will hang on.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

oxfordsimon · April 2015

kingbongo said:

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

oxfordsimon said:

Tabman said:

foxinsoxuk said:
PB Anecdote time:

1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.

Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.

on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds

Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.

Well that is North Oxford for you...

But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW

I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2015

Does this mean the Hampstead & Kilburn election will be delayed until after May 7th?

Ronnie Carroll, a former UK Eurovision contestant who was due to stand in the 2015 general election, has died at the age of 80.

Born in Belfast in 1934, his biggest hit was Roses are Red.

He represented the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963 with Ring-A-Ding Girl and Say Wonderful Things, finishing fourth both times.

Mr Carroll was due to stand as an independent in the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Dair · April 2015

OldKingCole said:

Dair said:

Artist said:
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY".
Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses".
NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".

Can't see this being a winner.
Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?

Yes, and enough people know it, especially the millions stuck in high cost slum rentals that will be completely put off the Tories by this sort of bribe.

Danny565 · April 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does this mean the Hampstead & Kilburn election will be delayed until after May 7th?

Ronnie Carroll, a former UK Eurovision contestant who was due to stand in the 2015 general election, has died at the age of 80.

Born in Belfast in 1934, his biggest hit was Roses are Red.

He represented the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963 with Ring-A-Ding Girl and Say Wonderful Things, finishing fourth both times.

Mr Carroll was due to stand as an independent in the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Oh, and a semi-marginal too.

Imagine if the Tories and Labour tie on the night for seats, and we have to wait weeks for this seat to vote.

foxinsoxuk · April 2015

OldKingCole said:

Dair said:

Artist said:
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY".
Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses".
NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".

Can't see this being a winner.
Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?

Council Houses did not cease to exist when they were sold. They took 1 house off the social stock, but also took one family of tennants off too.

The reason we have a housing shortage is partly a lack of new building, partly more households (through immigration and marriage breakdown), and partly a shortage of people who can afford to buy. Even a 10% deposit is a hell of a lot of money for a young couple.

Casino_Royale · April 2015

bunnco said:
Been out on the doorstep in Gt Yarmouth [UKIP deflating fast] and Norwich North [Chloe Smith has made remarkable progress getting 1800 youngsters into work with her 'Norwich for Jobs' campaign].

In Yarmouth, Labour's candidate has terrible name-recognition and could hardly string two words together coherently on a recent Radio Norfolk debate. Meanwhile the Labour-run Council has closed the public toilets in this holiday town... and hired a Council chief exec on a grand-a-day. Tory Hold.

In Norwich North, Labour's Jess Asato has sometimes benefitted from the halo-effect from front benchers visiting to bolster ex-BBC hack Clive Lewis [no skeletons in his cupboard, oh no! :winks:] in Norwich South but has still been absent without leave for the last few months. It's easy to forget that most of Norwich North is quite comfy surburbia and solidly Tory even if the bits close to the centre that the journos visit are blocks of flats with Labour posters. Tight but Chloe will hang on.

Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

Excellent update, as always, Bunnco.

Now, can you please get out and about in the other top 50 E&W marginal constituencies, please?

Thank you.

OldKingCole · April 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does this mean the Hampstead & Kilburn election will be delayed until after May 7th?

Ronnie Carroll, a former UK Eurovision contestant who was due to stand in the 2015 general election, has died at the age of 80.

Born in Belfast in 1934, his biggest hit was Roses are Red.

He represented the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963 with Ring-A-Ding Girl and Say Wonderful Things, finishing fourth both times.

Mr Carroll was due to stand as an independent in the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

Nominations have closed, so I suspect there will have to be a delay.

Danny565 · April 2015

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does this mean the Hampstead & Kilburn election will be delayed until after May 7th?

Ronnie Carroll, a former UK Eurovision contestant who was due to stand in the 2015 general election, has died at the age of 80.

Born in Belfast in 1934, his biggest hit was Roses are Red.

He represented the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963 with Ring-A-Ding Girl and Say Wonderful Things, finishing fourth both times.

Mr Carroll was due to stand as an independent in the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350
Nominations have closed, so I suspect there will have to be a delay.

Although, does that really apply to independent candidates? There's no "party" to nominate a new candidate afterall.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · April 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
Does this mean the Hampstead & Kilburn election will be delayed until after May 7th?

Ronnie Carroll, a former UK Eurovision contestant who was due to stand in the 2015 general election, has died at the age of 80.

Born in Belfast in 1934, his biggest hit was Roses are Red.

He represented the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1962 and 1963 with Ring-A-Ding Girl and Say Wonderful Things, finishing fourth both times.

Mr Carroll was due to stand as an independent in the election in the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-32291350

TSE, talking of Eurovision. Will you be running a thread on the evening?
The Swedish entry is looking good.