Been out on the doorstep in Gt Yarmouth [UKIP deflating fast] and Norwich North [Chloe Smith has made remarkable progress getting 1800 youngsters into work with her 'Norwich for Jobs' campaign].
In Yarmouth, Labour's candidate has terrible name-recognition and could hardly string two words together coherently on a recent Radio Norfolk debate. Meanwhile the Labour-run Council has closed the public toilets in this holiday town... and hired a Council chief exec on a grand-a-day. Tory Hold.
In Norwich North, Labour's Jess Asato has sometimes benefitted from the halo-effect from front benchers visiting to bolster ex-BBC hack Clive Lewis [no skeletons in his cupboard, oh no! :winks:] in Norwich South but has still been absent without leave for the last few months. It's easy to forget that most of Norwich North is quite comfy surburbia and solidly Tory even if the bits close to the centre that the journos visit are blocks of flats with Labour posters. Tight but Chloe will hang on.
Marf is right though. Labour cannot sell austerity. The first rule of sales is "Believe in the product" the second is "know your customer".
Yup.
It's ironic that, for all the prattling that the "Blairite" wing of Labour do about being pro-business, they actually know nothing about how successful businesses market themselves. You have to emphasise your USP, you don't try to adopt the USP of your main rival and come off like a second-rate imitation of it.
Fairly sure this will be remembered as the day Labour lost the election.
Exactly why I think they are in trouble, they can't be the party of cuts after 5 years of telling people what they wouldn't cut. No way they can win people over on the economy after that.
I don't understand how this got through Labour HQ. They are never going to be the party of cuts and they shouldn't bother being the party of cuts. They can win the election without pro-austerity voters, or at least get the most seats and form a government with SNP support.
As an analyst I can't see what Labour were thinking today. This is a vote loser for them. People who are willing to trust Labour on the economy are probably already voting Labour and there just aren't enough of them. Last time it was around 20% according to YouGov, the rest of Labour's vote largely is anti-austerity and one thing we know is that people who don't like cuts, really don't like them and it is a vote defining issue unlike stuff like aid or defence which some Tories feel strongly about but still won't desert the party over.
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY". Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses". NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY". Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses". NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".
Can't see this being a winner.
Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?
It helps the housing crisis if proceeds are used to build new homes (homes, not affordable hovels). And that helps the economy.
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY". Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses". NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".
Can't see this being a winner.
Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?
Council Houses did not cease to exist when they were sold. They took 1 house off the social stock, but also took one family of tennants off too.
The reason we have a housing shortage is partly a lack of new building, partly more households (through immigration and marriage breakdown), and partly a shortage of people who can afford to buy. Even a 10% deposit is a hell of a lot of money for a young couple.
Tenants who might have bought new houses bought former Council properties, which reduced the available rental stock.
Well my potential romance with the Greens looks to have hit the rocks.
There aren't that many political deal breakers but this talk of reviewing horse racing is one... Looks like it'll have to be the yellow peril or red tories after all.
MaxPB Quite a few Tories have defected to UKIP over defence cuts and ringfencing aid, just as Labour have lost voters to the Greens and SNP over austerity
Been out on the doorstep in Gt Yarmouth [UKIP deflating fast] and Norwich North [Chloe Smith has made remarkable progress getting 1800 youngsters into work with her 'Norwich for Jobs' campaign].
In Yarmouth, Labour's candidate has terrible name-recognition and could hardly string two words together coherently on a recent Radio Norfolk debate. Meanwhile the Labour-run Council has closed the public toilets in this holiday town... and hired a Council chief exec on a grand-a-day. Tory Hold.
In Norwich North, Labour's Jess Asato has sometimes benefitted from the halo-effect from front benchers visiting to bolster ex-BBC hack Clive Lewis [no skeletons in his cupboard, oh no! :winks:] in Norwich South but has still been absent without leave for the last few months. It's easy to forget that most of Norwich North is quite comfy surburbia and solidly Tory even if the bits close to the centre that the journos visit are blocks of flats with Labour posters. Tight but Chloe will hang on.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Excellent update, as always, Bunnco.
Now, can you please get out and about in the other top 50 E&W marginal constituencies, please?
Thank you.
Only if you want bunnco to tell you what you want to hear......
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY". Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses". NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY". Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses". NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".
Can't see this being a winner.
Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?
It helps the housing crisis if proceeds are used to build new homes (homes, not affordable hovels). And that helps the economy.
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.
Nicola Blackwood is an elitist, anti abortionist, happy clapper, funded by the hunting lobby and gungho about slaughtering badgers- about as appealing to me as the POX. Other than that she would get my vote.
Been out on the doorstep in Gt Yarmouth [UKIP deflating fast] and Norwich North [Chloe Smith has made remarkable progress getting 1800 youngsters into work with her 'Norwich for Jobs' campaign].
In Yarmouth, Labour's candidate has terrible name-recognition and could hardly string two words together coherently on a recent Radio Norfolk debate. Meanwhile the Labour-run Council has closed the public toilets in this holiday town... and hired a Council chief exec on a grand-a-day. Tory Hold.
In Norwich North, Labour's Jess Asato has sometimes benefitted from the halo-effect from front benchers visiting to bolster ex-BBC hack Clive Lewis [no skeletons in his cupboard, oh no! :winks:] in Norwich South but has still been absent without leave for the last few months. It's easy to forget that most of Norwich North is quite comfy surburbia and solidly Tory even if the bits close to the centre that the journos visit are blocks of flats with Labour posters. Tight but Chloe will hang on.
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.
Nicola Blackwood is an elitist, anti abortionist, happy clapper, funded by the hunting lobby and gungho about slaughtering badgers- about as appealing to me as the POX. Other than that she would get my vote.
What is it with you and badgers?!
If I pledged to protect every badger in the country, and put them up in a five-star hotel, would you vote for me?
MaxPB Quite a few Tories have defected to UKIP over defence cuts and ringfencing aid, just as Labour have lost voters to the Greens and SNP over austerity
Not in my experience. Usually Tories desert the party over immigration and Europe.
She wouldn't get mine. I live three miles outside the OxWAB boundary, and I'm quite relieved. I'd just made my mind up to vote Lib Dem as a sympathy vote and I read the candidates' websites:
Nicola Blackwood has focussed on getting the A34 upgraded (sorely needed) and has had the balls to back a Green Belt revision (unpopular, but sorely needed). Layla Moran has NIMBY front and centre on her website.
We desperately need the coarse and unfit Green Belt legislation revised. Over 90% of Green Belt land is out of limits for the public - so we don't exactly get any use of it. The majority of Green Belt land is used for non-environmentally-friendly intensive agriculture. But propose a revision and people squeal: "Do you want to concrete over Britain?!?"
No. But only 1% of Britain is under houses. Most of the Green belt is not fit for purpose. Allocate it in 1000 hectare chunks: 250 ha of housing (at 25 house/ha rather than the stupid 30-50 requirements that ended with shoeboxes with tiny gardens); 75 ha of connective main roads, 125ha of relevant infrastructure (schools, hospitals, leisure centres, office blocks, shops or factories), 200ha of public parkland and 300ha of public woodlands. Then we'd have an end to the housing crisis, an end to spiralling living costs (usually based on housing) and a truly green and sustainable living environment for our children.
Or we could hang on to a defective Green Belt which just compresses us into smaller and smaller accommodation, with spiralling demand and stagnant supply (causing inevitable price inflation), with greenery further away and more inaccessible - while we pride ourselves on our "Green Belt". Rather than solve the problem.
Ahem. Sorry. Bit of a trigger subject for me - but that's why I couldn't vote for Layla Moran and I'm impressed by Nicola Blackwood - having the guts to take on an unpopular stance in a knife-edge marginal.
This election is turning more and more into back to the future...Labour "soak the rich / ban everything we deem is bad" vs Tories "right to buy". If that is the Tories big big policy for this GE, they ain't going to be winning over many new people in the next 3 weeks.
Marf is right though. Labour cannot sell austerity. The first rule of sales is "Believe in the product" the second is "know your customer".
Yup.
It's ironic that, for all the prattling that the "Blairite" wing of Labour do about being pro-business, they actually know nothing about how successful businesses market themselves. You have to emphasise your USP, you don't try to adopt the USP of your main rival and come off like a second-rate imitation of it.
Fairly sure this will be remembered as the day Labour lost the election.
Exactly why I think they are in trouble, they can't be the party of cuts after 5 years of telling people what they wouldn't cut. No way they can win people over on the economy after that.
I don't understand how this got through Labour HQ. They are never going to be the party of cuts and they shouldn't bother being the party of cuts. They can win the election without pro-austerity voters, or at least get the most seats and form a government with SNP support.
As an analyst I can't see what Labour were thinking today. This is a vote loser for them. People who are willing to trust Labour on the economy are probably already voting Labour and there just aren't enough of them. Last time it was around 20% according to YouGov, the rest of Labour's vote largely is anti-austerity and one thing we know is that people who don't like cuts, really don't like them and it is a vote defining issue unlike stuff like aid or defence which some Tories feel strongly about but still won't desert the party over.
You misunderstand Labour.
It was a political weapon to oppose the cuts. It damages the Tories. It is a political convenience to be economically sound in an election.
They have very little to do with anything other than political opportunism. That is what Milliband has done for 5 years.
@faisalislam: Conservatives promise to introduce Right to Buy to 1.3m housing association homes - signature policy for manifesto https://t.co/Dl1QEY4X8k
MaxPB Quite a few Tories have defected to UKIP over defence cuts and ringfencing aid, just as Labour have lost voters to the Greens and SNP over austerity
It really isn't hard. We can be generous and compassionate to the developing world with aid, helping them to overcome extreme poverty, without compromising our ability to defend ourselves.
Personally, I think any % GDP target for spending is silly (and wasteful) but I'd prioritise our national safety and security over a target for charitable largesse (however laudable) any day.
dan hodges predicted Carswell would lose Clacton at the GE ( mind you the PB shrewdies argued he wouldn't win the by election)
The candidates website is still talking up their chances in last Octobers by election, and
'Eric Pickles cancelled a visit at the last minute last week – and UKIP sources report a complete lack of Tory presence trying to win back the seat. Guido hears that the results of a survey put out in the constituency by the Conservatives were so dire for the party that they decided to divert resources elsewhere…'
Oh, by the way - the Labour pledge to abolish the bedroom tax - does this apply to Housing benefit tenants in the private sector (the ones who were impacted by Labour's Bedroom Tax in the 01-05 Parliament)?
@faisalislam: Conservatives promise to introduce Right to Buy to 1.3m housing association homes - signature policy for manifesto https://t.co/Dl1QEY4X8k
Are they going to give them away cheap too? These homes are by and large for people who are currently priced out of the market. Stupid policy imho that will rebound quickly.
The Conservatives are going ahead with Iain Duncan Smith's Right To Buy idea according to the Daily Express/Telegraph front pages.
A (probably small) percentage of Housing Association Tenants go "YAY". Millions stuck in high cost slum rentals go "WTF, Build Houses". NIMBY's and Bouquet's go "they don't deserve a house".
Can't see this being a winner.
Isn't the sale of Council House widely held to be the cause of the housing problems we have now?
Yes, and enough people know it, especially the millions stuck in high cost slum rentals that will be completely put off the Tories by this sort of bribe.
No. And your logic is flawed even though your far left prejudice is running hot. A new council house or housing association house needs land and roads and sewers and water and needs to be built. All at great cost, not least in nasty CO2 as well (as you really ought to know). People in receipt of housing benefit as opposed to 'council housing' live in houses that are not slums and are not high cost; the cost is limited by the benefit.
Surely as an independent it is irrelevant. Isn't the rule in place only for registered Political Parties?
The rule should be scrapped anyway, with the provision for a by-election if the deceased candidate wins.
I would guess the issue is while most people vote for the party not the person, we like to pretend otherwise, and as it admittedly can have some effect at least, if the deceased's party loses it might be argued it was partly because they were not able to swing things with their personal effect.
dan hodges predicted Carswell would lose Clacton at the GE ( mind you the PB shrewdies argued he wouldn't win the by election)
The candidates website is still talking up their chances in last Octobers by election, and
'Eric Pickles cancelled a visit at the last minute last week – and UKIP sources report a complete lack of Tory presence trying to win back the seat. Guido hears that the results of a survey put out in the constituency by the Conservatives were so dire for the party that they decided to divert resources elsewhere…'
@faisalislam: Conservatives promise to introduce Right to Buy to 1.3m housing association homes - signature policy for manifesto https://t.co/Dl1QEY4X8k
I'm up for it, but what are the homes that are sold to be replaced by?
We aren't building very many council homes anymore. These policies must be linking to the construction and building of further social housing. Otherwise, where will the very low-income people go in the next generation?
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I didn't live here in 2010. Much more activity than any other constituency I've ever lived in
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.
Nicola Blackwood is an elitist, anti abortionist, happy clapper, funded by the hunting lobby and gungho about slaughtering badgers- about as appealing to me as the POX. Other than that she would get my vote.
What is it with you and badgers?!
If I pledged to protect every badger in the country, and put them up in a five-star hotel, would you vote for me?
I would absolutely vote for the Tories if they had a strong focus on animal welfare. The 1970-74 Heath Govt I think put more statutory protections in place for wildlife than any other government. Animal welfare and old school Toryism fit very nicely together.
@faisalislam: Conservatives promise to introduce Right to Buy to 1.3m housing association homes - signature policy for manifesto https://t.co/Dl1QEY4X8k
I'm up for it, but what are the homes that are sold to be replaced by?
We aren't building very many council homes anymore. These policies must be linking to the construction and building of further social housing. Otherwise, where will the very low-income people go in the next generation?
dan hodges predicted Carswell would lose Clacton at the GE ( mind you the PB shrewdies argued he wouldn't win the by election)
The candidates website is still talking up their chances in last Octobers by election, and
'Eric Pickles cancelled a visit at the last minute last week – and UKIP sources report a complete lack of Tory presence trying to win back the seat. Guido hears that the results of a survey put out in the constituency by the Conservatives were so dire for the party that they decided to divert resources elsewhere…'
MaxPB Quite a few Tories have defected to UKIP over defence cuts and ringfencing aid, just as Labour have lost voters to the Greens and SNP over austerity
I will never consider voting Tory as long as they pursue their current foreign aid policy. Only the other day the Mail ran a piece on wasting 500k on decorating their office in India which will close at the end of the year. It is wasteful and there is a huge argument to be had that it doesn't help many of the recipients. Polling suggests a majority of the public want to see aid cut. Only out of touch metro elites would think it is a good idea.
So housing associations are forced to sell off their houses at below market rate and to fund the discount councils then have to sell of their properties as well??
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.
Nicola Blackwood is an elitist, anti abortionist, happy clapper, funded by the hunting lobby and gungho about slaughtering badgers- about as appealing to me as the POX. Other than that she would get my vote.
She's done nothing about the graffiti and the rubbish on the A34 verges that I wrote to her about :-)
As usual, the story unravels, but of course by now no-one cares, the information merry-go-round has moved on, the next 'Putin' scandal awaits.
Interestingly, if you use a non-Russian source, they state that the first incident last autumn was probably a foreign submarine, perhaps understandably after the flap that ensued, a second one seems to have probably been a misidentified civilian vessel. http://www.thelocal.se/20150413/suspected-sub-in-swedish-waters-was-working-boat
More likely to be the RN than the Russians, in the 80s we used to fake Russian incursions along the Swedish shoreline to keep them in line.
Miliband's answer to the question on newsnight just now as to what was different from a New Labour manifesto 'we are ready to cut spending' is a surefire statement to shift voters from Labour to Green/SNP (though Murphy clearly disagrees) He could have said something about higher taxes on the wealthy, no reckless foreign wars etc instead
The Tories are going to make a lot of people in London very rich. Lucky them. Meanwhile those who don't live in housing association properties can look on and wonder why they aren't getting any help.
The polling issue is really the old question about whether ICM's distinctive assumptions are a good guide or not. As I understand it, they (partly?) discount people who didn't vote last time and assign half the "doubtfuls" to their previous party, on the baiss that people who aren't sure tend to do what they did before. I think the former is shaky (there were a lot of people who didn't vote last time for specific reasons who seem to plan to vote this time) - it's better rto use "certainty to vote" data. The latter seems a reasonable guess - but it's a guess which works against newly-popular parties, in particluar UKIP.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
GOLD STANDARD. ICM is clearly an outlier.
ICM is OTT, but it's given the Tories a lead in the polls every month since February where as all the other pollsters have favoured "neck and neck" or Lab slightly ahead.
Will ICM still have the Tories at 39% and 6% ahead when they update next week? No, almost certainly not. But they may have the Conservatives at 37% and 3-4% ahead.
ICM is the UK's best pollster over successive general elections and IMO it seems to me they are telling us something the other polling companies aren't (although we wait for Mori)
If you are still lurking and want to repeat what you said you can call me or meet up and say it to my face.
Message me
Why would I want to repeat it? I posted it twice, each time after you had a tangential dig at the object of your obsession. You should understand it by now.
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.
Nicola Blackwood is an elitist, anti abortionist, happy clapper, funded by the hunting lobby and gungho about slaughtering badgers- about as appealing to me as the POX. Other than that she would get my vote.
What is it with you and badgers?!
If I pledged to protect every badger in the country, and put them up in a five-star hotel, would you vote for me?
I would absolutely vote for the Tories if they had a strong focus on animal welfare. The 1970-74 Heath Govt I think put more statutory protections in place for wildlife than any other government. Animal welfare and old school Toryism fit very nicely together.
Lord Liverpool was old school Toryism. Heath was a nasty interloper.
This election is turning more and more into back to the future...Labour "soak the rich / ban everything we deem is bad" vs Tories "right to buy". If that is the Tories big big policy for this GE, they ain't going to be winning over many new people in the next 3 weeks.
I know what you mean. We've had reinforcing the Falklands, Trident II, Right to Buy Mark II, and IHT cut Take II.
Perhaps Osborne and Cameron are trawling through the archives picking out any Tory policies that proved electorally popular over the last 35 years, and sticking them in the manifesto.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
GOLD STANDARD. ICM is clearly an outlier.
ICM is OTT, but it's given the Tories a lead in the polls every month since February where as all the other pollsters have favoured "neck and neck" or Lab slightly ahead.
Will ICM still have the Tories at 39% and 6% ahead when they update next week? No, almost certainly not. But they may have the Conservatives at 37% and 3-4% ahead.
ICM is the UK's best pollster over successive general elections and IMO it seems to me they are telling us something the other polling companies aren't (although we wait for Mori)
Its all down to the UKIP %, who has that right and can the Tories really shift back lots of voters who think he is too liberal metro elitist and failed on immigration only time will tell.
The polling issue is really the old question about whether ICM's distinctive assumptions are a good guide or not. As I understand it, they (partly?) discount people who didn't vote last time and assign half the "doubtfuls" to their previous party, on the baiss that people who aren't sure tend to do what they did before. I think the former is shaky (there were a lot of people who didn't vote last time for specific reasons who seem to plan to vote this time) - it's better rto use "certainty to vote" data. The latter seems a reasonable guess - but it's a guess which works against newly-popular parties, in particluar UKIP.
Didn't ICM come to this methodology after the 1992 polling disaster?
So housing associations are forced to sell off their houses at below market rate and to fund the discount councils then have to sell of their properties as well??
It's a gold mine for folk in London. Getting a huge discount to buy properties worth a fortune on the open market is like winning the pools. Lucky them.
This election is turning more and more into back to the future...Labour "soak the rich / ban everything we deem is bad" vs Tories "right to buy". If that is the Tories big big policy for this GE, they ain't going to be winning over many new people in the next 3 weeks.
I know what you mean. We've had reinforcing the Falklands, Trident II, Right to Buy Mark II, and IHT cut Take II.
Perhaps Osborne and Cameron are trawling through the archives picking out any Tory policies that proved electorally popular over the last 35 years, and sticking them in the manifesto.
The polling issue is really the old question about whether ICM's distinctive assumptions are a good guide or not. As I understand it, they (partly?) discount people who didn't vote last time and assign half the "doubtfuls" to their previous party, on the baiss that people who aren't sure tend to do what they did before. I think the former is shaky (there were a lot of people who didn't vote last time for specific reasons who seem to plan to vote this time) - it's better rto use "certainty to vote" data. The latter seems a reasonable guess - but it's a guess which works against newly-popular parties, in particluar UKIP.
Does ICM assign "don't knows" to the winning party at the last election? If so, that's a dangerous assumption. A Times Red Box poll last week, when "don't knows" were forced to say who they were leaning most towards, they split 29% Labour, 21% UKIP, 19% Tories.
1) My junior doctor today was away last week visiting parents.in Eastbourne where they run a B and B. I tasked her with looking out for posters. She saw six LD and no others.
Fox's anecdote predictor: comfortable LD hold.
on that basis OXWAB is a nailed on gain; you can't move for orange diamonds
Oh yes you can. I have seen 1. Just one in and around the relevant parts of Central Oxford. Have seen more Green posters!
Go to abingdon via Cumnor Hill, or down the side roads in North Oxford.
Well that is North Oxford for you...
But OxWAb is not really in play for the LDs - according to my well-placed source in the party. Moran really isn't making any headway. And the Blackwood team is working much harder in terms of leaflets
I walk the side roads of north oxford every day - compared to 2010 number of orange diamonds way down - and anecdotally I am surprised how positive some of my colleagues are about Nicola Blackwood - both Ox seats are notionally marginal but Lab will cruise home in Ox East and CON will build a bigger buffer in OxW
I am no fan of Blackwood but she has been working the constituency throughout her time as MP - and that hasn't gone unnoticed. She is certainly more present than Evan Harris was 2005-10.
Nicola Blackwood is an elitist, anti abortionist, happy clapper, funded by the hunting lobby and gungho about slaughtering badgers- about as appealing to me as the POX. Other than that she would get my vote.
What is it with you and badgers?!
If I pledged to protect every badger in the country, and put them up in a five-star hotel, would you vote for me?
I would absolutely vote for the Tories if they had a strong focus on animal welfare. The 1970-74 Heath Govt I think put more statutory protections in place for wildlife than any other government. Animal welfare and old school Toryism fit very nicely together.
You surprise me. Thank you for answering so honestly.
The polling issue is really the old question about whether ICM's distinctive assumptions are a good guide or not. As I understand it, they (partly?) discount people who didn't vote last time and assign half the "doubtfuls" to their previous party, on the baiss that people who aren't sure tend to do what they did before. I think the former is shaky (there were a lot of people who didn't vote last time for specific reasons who seem to plan to vote this time) - it's better rto use "certainty to vote" data. The latter seems a reasonable guess - but it's a guess which works against newly-popular parties, in particluar UKIP.
Didn't ICM come to this methodology after the 1992 polling disaster?
It's certainly served them well from 97-10....
ICM underestimated Labour in 1997. A week before the election, they had the Lab lead down to 5%.
The Tories are going to make a lot of people in London very rich. Lucky them. Meanwhile those who don't live in housing association properties can look on and wonder why they aren't getting any help.
The hole is what the Tories offer young people in the private rented sector. Help with saving for a house deposit isn't really enough, prices will just increase faster. It's like trying to drive faster to get home before the petrol runs out.
There really is no way round building a lot more homes, each and every year, and controlling net immigration numbers.
Conservatives @Conservatives · 14m14 minutes ago BREAKING: The next Conservative Government will extend the Right to Buy and help build 400,000 new houses. pic.twitter.com/b6c13GzSb3
MaxPB Quite a few Tories have defected to UKIP over defence cuts and ringfencing aid, just as Labour have lost voters to the Greens and SNP over austerity
I will never consider voting Tory as long as they pursue their current foreign aid policy. Only the other day the Mail ran a piece on wasting 500k on decorating their office in India which will close at the end of the year. It is wasteful and there is a huge argument to be had that it doesn't help many of the recipients. Polling suggests a majority of the public want to see aid cut. Only out of touch metro elites would think it is a good idea.
Sadly, I think any change to the 0.7% GDP target is off the table.
This is one of the defining policies of the Cameron modernisation project that he'll always stick to his guns on.
@NickPalmer I think the ICM poll today has largely been shown to be a little odd today, mostly by the unusually high amount of C2's and lower groupings professing to vote Tory.
BTW- hope you got my email. Let me know if you didn't.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Jessica_Asato/status/587661324534095872
I don't understand how this got through Labour HQ. They are never going to be the party of cuts and they shouldn't bother being the party of cuts. They can win the election without pro-austerity voters, or at least get the most seats and form a government with SNP support.
As an analyst I can't see what Labour were thinking today. This is a vote loser for them. People who are willing to trust Labour on the economy are probably already voting Labour and there just aren't enough of them. Last time it was around 20% according to YouGov, the rest of Labour's vote largely is anti-austerity and one thing we know is that people who don't like cuts, really don't like them and it is a vote defining issue unlike stuff like aid or defence which some Tories feel strongly about but still won't desert the party over.
It helps the housing crisis if proceeds are used to build new homes (homes, not affordable hovels). And that helps the economy.
There aren't that many political deal breakers but this talk of reviewing horse racing is one... Looks like it'll have to be the yellow peril or red tories after all.
If I pledged to protect every badger in the country, and put them up in a five-star hotel, would you vote for me?
I live three miles outside the OxWAB boundary, and I'm quite relieved. I'd just made my mind up to vote Lib Dem as a sympathy vote and I read the candidates' websites:
Nicola Blackwood has focussed on getting the A34 upgraded (sorely needed) and has had the balls to back a Green Belt revision (unpopular, but sorely needed).
Layla Moran has NIMBY front and centre on her website.
We desperately need the coarse and unfit Green Belt legislation revised. Over 90% of Green Belt land is out of limits for the public - so we don't exactly get any use of it. The majority of Green Belt land is used for non-environmentally-friendly intensive agriculture. But propose a revision and people squeal: "Do you want to concrete over Britain?!?"
No. But only 1% of Britain is under houses. Most of the Green belt is not fit for purpose. Allocate it in 1000 hectare chunks: 250 ha of housing (at 25 house/ha rather than the stupid 30-50 requirements that ended with shoeboxes with tiny gardens); 75 ha of connective main roads, 125ha of relevant infrastructure (schools, hospitals, leisure centres, office blocks, shops or factories), 200ha of public parkland and 300ha of public woodlands. Then we'd have an end to the housing crisis, an end to spiralling living costs (usually based on housing) and a truly green and sustainable living environment for our children.
Or we could hang on to a defective Green Belt which just compresses us into smaller and smaller accommodation, with spiralling demand and stagnant supply (causing inevitable price inflation), with greenery further away and more inaccessible - while we pride ourselves on our "Green Belt". Rather than solve the problem.
Ahem. Sorry. Bit of a trigger subject for me - but that's why I couldn't vote for Layla Moran and I'm impressed by Nicola Blackwood - having the guts to take on an unpopular stance in a knife-edge marginal.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/587726826094645248
It was a political weapon to oppose the cuts. It damages the Tories.
It is a political convenience to be economically sound in an election.
They have very little to do with anything other than political opportunism. That is what Milliband has done for 5 years.
Personally, I think any % GDP target for spending is silly (and wasteful) but I'd prioritise our national safety and security over a target for charitable largesse (however laudable) any day.
The candidates website is still talking up their chances in last Octobers by election, and
'Eric Pickles cancelled a visit at the last minute last week – and UKIP sources report a complete lack of Tory presence trying to win back the seat. Guido hears that the results of a survey put out in the constituency by the Conservatives were so dire for the party that they decided to divert resources elsewhere…'
http://order-order.com/2015/04/13/have-the-tories-given-up-on-clacton/
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
A new council house or housing association house needs land and roads and sewers and water and needs to be built. All at great cost, not least in nasty CO2 as well (as you really ought to know).
People in receipt of housing benefit as opposed to 'council housing' live in houses that are not slums and are not high cost; the cost is limited by the benefit.
Who would have thought that
You would die the same day
As Gunther Grass?
Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
We aren't building very many council homes anymore. These policies must be linking to the construction and building of further social housing. Otherwise, where will the very low-income people go in the next generation?
I said it would be a v easy UKIP win and Carswell should be 1/3 straight away
People argued, your Dad tipped Labour I think.
What is this about Kate Winslet. People should not get an old man too excited.
Sun Politics ✔ @SunPolitics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%
As soon as you get past 10 ish and that twerp from the Sun hasn't tweeted the poll you know its not going to be an especially good one for the tories.
I am sure the CIA troll army will say otherwise.
http://pando.com/2015/04/02/the-kremlins-social-media-trolls-are-real-as-is-the-medias-amnesia-about-them/
Will ICM still have the Tories at 39% and 6% ahead when they update next week? No, almost certainly not. But they may have the Conservatives at 37% and 3-4% ahead.
ICM is the UK's best pollster over successive general elections and IMO it seems to me they are telling us something the other polling companies aren't (although we wait for Mori)
Nice keyboard warrior act though.
Perhaps Osborne and Cameron are trawling through the archives picking out any Tory policies that proved electorally popular over the last 35 years, and sticking them in the manifesto.
Next: Tell Sid.
Um....
Why not extend right to buy to private renters?
It's certainly served them well from 97-10....
Was told to F**K off
There really is no way round building a lot more homes, each and every year, and controlling net immigration numbers.
BREAKING: The next Conservative Government will extend the Right to Buy and help build 400,000 new houses. pic.twitter.com/b6c13GzSb3
This is one of the defining policies of the Cameron modernisation project that he'll always stick to his guns on.
I think the ICM poll today has largely been shown to be a little odd today, mostly by the unusually high amount of C2's and lower groupings professing to vote Tory.
BTW- hope you got my email. Let me know if you didn't.