politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord As
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord Ashcroft
I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture.
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First?
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Glass slippers?
Edit: the With high heels?0 -
No PhilipH - they are leather uppers synthetic sole. I would never wear glass - too hard on the toes.0
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Hours on and I'm still bemused at Miliband's comments this morning. I can't actually believe he said the Tories were going to "spend recklessly" with Labour contrasting as frugal. What exactly is supposed to be the rationale for voting Labour now? What is the argument that's going to get the many people who hate the Tories fired up enough to turn out and vote?
Talk about the triumph of short-term tactics over strategy.0 -
Why are opinion polls not reported with errors margins any more?
Given we have so many polls these days, we would expect to see more polls right at the extreme bounds of confidence in a campaign.
Reported Tory vote shares of 39% and 33% could both correct once you take errors into account.0 -
Fifth?0
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A shame - it still appears the overall picture is for the sides to be about tied then (the big Con lead should help offset the big Lab lead we saw a little while back too). Is there going to be any actual movement through the GE campaign that isn't from an outlier?0
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I suppose no one would commission them. Does Lord A give data? Does he tell us who does his polling? Does he say who does which polls when?Jonathan said:Why are opinion polls not reported with errors margins any more?
Given we have so many polls these days, we would expect to see more polls right at the extreme bounds of confidence in a campaign.
Reported Tory vote shares of 39% and 33% could both correct once you take errors into account.
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Also, is it true Murphy said Labour would end Austerity? In the sense of years down the line no cuts being needed that might be argued, so either he meant that and is being knowingly unclear (given that is not what most people will think of as ending Austerity), is lying, or has been misreported, right?0
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I thought he said 'spank Reckless' so now I'm doubly confused.Danny565 said:Hours on and I'm still bemused at Miliband's comments this morning. I can't actually believe he said the Tories were going to "spend recklessly" with Labour contrasting as frugal. What exactly is supposed to be the rationale for voting Labour now? What is the argument that's going to get the many people who hate the Tories fired up enough to turn out and vote?
Talk about the triumph of short-term tactics over strategy.0 -
Of course with heels. No other kind of shoe is worth wearingphiliph said:Glass slippers?
Edit: the With high heels?
Imelda Marcos had no taste in shoes ... so many awful ones, except for the 1,738 pairs that where actually quite nice.JackW said:Don't encourage Mrs JackW .... I'm already worried enough by the return of the reincarnation of Imelda Marcos - aka Beverley_C
I hope you are feeling better Mr JackW and that Mrs JackW is keeping well. It is good to see you posting again.
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All beginners when compared to my daughter. Working in fashion she has assembled an obscene collection of expensive shoes.JackW said:
Don't encourage Mrs JackW .... I'm already worried enough by the return of the reincarnation of Imelda Marcos - aka Beverley_Cphiliph said:Glass slippers?
Edit: the With high heels?0 -
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.0 -
Given how authoritative the BBC are (admittedly by their own admission) in their 'watch us for election reports' adverts, I suggest we all vote for them. They clearly are the best to run the country and tell us what to do and think.JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.0 -
I wonder what chance there is of open war breaking out between Jim Murphy and London Labour. He can't be at all happy at being forced into the role and by now must think that his usual "under the radar" anonymity might have allowed him to keep his constituency seat.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.0 -
So...
Dave Can't Win Here.
Well that's a complete surprise.0 -
I thought during GE time that all media outlets had to be OTT when it came to balance....
Just listened to 15 mins of R5, John Pienaar giving Ed Miliband massive thumbs up, all rosy, all great, what a man, fiscially responsible, Tories unfunded, etc etc etc...15sec at the end, IFS say not so sure about the figures, and back to you.
Now I know John is a signed up Labour man and that Ed tried to hire him as his spokesman, but at least pretend to be impartial, not come out with things like "I was shocked, absolutely shocked at the announcements, in a really good way"...I think he only just managed not to come out with a "when we are back in government" moment in all his excitement.0 -
Thank you.Beverley_C said:
Of course with heels. No other kind of shoe is worth wearingphiliph said:Glass slippers?
Edit: the With high heels?
Imelda Marcos had no taste in shoes ... so many awful ones, except for the 1,738 pairs that where actually quite nice.JackW said:Don't encourage Mrs JackW .... I'm already worried enough by the return of the reincarnation of Imelda Marcos - aka Beverley_C
I hope you are feeling better Mr JackW and that Mrs JackW is keeping well. It is good to see you posting again.
Still holding my end up, which is nothing short of a minor medical miracle.
Mrs JackW continues to enjoy rude health that at times appears in direct opposition to the health of my wallet. Twas ever thus.
Pleasing to note your return, amongst other PB old timers, that in your case is somewhat like finding a comfy pair of brogues, seemingly lost in the wilderness of a spare room gentleman's wardrobe.
Welcome back.
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Ooo! Lucky her.philiph said:
All beginners when compared to my daughter. Working in fashion she has assembled an obscene collection of expensive shoes.
It depends on the guy!Plato said:I do love Cuban heels on a guy, myself.
FPT: Camel hair handbag? I imagine that would be very coarse fabric. What does it feel like? Has it been trained not to spit?0 -
Has this been mentioned?
Andy Coulson perjury trial date put back
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-322882480 -
Twitter
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson now1 minute ago
Damian McBride on Labour manifesto: "Forget the longest suicide note in history; whoever wrote this would have died of boredom first"0 -
On the other hand if he is a signed up labour supporter he is thick and cannot add up.FrancisUrquhart said:I thought during GE time that all media outlets had to be OTT when it came to balance....
Just listened to 15 mins of R5, John Pienaar giving Ed Miliband massive thumbs up, all rosy, all great, what a man, fiscially responsible, Tories unfunded, etc etc etc...15sec at the end, IFS say not so sure about the figures, and back to you.
Now I know John is a signed up Labour man and that Ed tried to hire him as his spokesman, but at least pretend to be impartial, not come out with things like "I was shocked, absolutely shocked at the announcements, in a really good way"...I think he only just managed not to come out with a "when we are back in government" moment in all his excitement.0 -
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
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Just camel leather - fringed - and doe skin soft. And caramel coloured. It was gorgeous.
Bought from a tannery in Morocco that stank of dead camels - it was wretchingly notable. The vats of various skins were errr - memorable.
I'm pretty good at not-noticing, but this was a trial.Beverley_C said:
Ooo! Lucky her.philiph said:
All beginners when compared to my daughter. Working in fashion she has assembled an obscene collection of expensive shoes.
It depends on the guy!Plato said:I do love Cuban heels on a guy, myself.
FPT: Camel hair handbag? I imagine that would be very coarse fabric. What does it feel like? Has it been trained not to spit?0 -
It is doubly ironic because they depend on uhmm London Labour and Unionist Trade Union bosses for uhmm their pocket money. I was a member of USDAW and considering their disgraceful and unbalotted and unconsulted in anyway decision to support the Brit Tories in the Referendum campaign I resigned from the Union and joined another. There is no way back for Labour in Scotland. I lament not.Dair said:I wonder what chance there is of open war breaking out between Jim Murphy and London Labour. He can't be at all happy at being forced into the role and by now must think that his usual "under the radar" anonymity might have allowed him to keep his constituency seat.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.0 -
Yes, it's certainly unusual for a manifesto to be boring, I am sure.fitalass said:Twitter
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson now1 minute ago
Damian McBride on Labour manifesto: "Forget the longest suicide note in history; whoever wrote this would have died of boredom first"
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I was not a big fan of Indy Scotland, but after the campaign and some of the comments and invective that were flungaabout, I rather came around to the idea. If Scottish Independence took their civil war off my radio then it might have been a price worth paying. It would have been even more interesting listening to them justify their finances, based in expensive oil, just after the oil price collapse.Dair said:
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.
If SLAB get wiped out north of the border then it would be very interesting because thanks to the oil fiasco, the SNP dare not base their finances on oil. What happened once can happen again.
So, no SLAB and and SNP that cannot afford independence.0 -
This is an election fought on the basis of an economic lie
The two main parties are locked in a battle of dreary "sameness". Small wonder so little separates them in the polls
Legatum Institute @LegatumInst 16m16 minutes ago
Jeremy Warner scathing in @telegraph: 'This election is being fought on an economic lie' http://ow.ly/Ly7pP0 -
BTW, whatever happened the English Parliament or the more silly "Grand Committee" idea?0
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They had to fill in that blank piece of paper somehow....fitalass said:Twitter
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson now1 minute ago
Damian McBride on Labour manifesto: "Forget the longest suicide note in history; whoever wrote this would have died of boredom first"0 -
Mr Smirnoff beckons.
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.JackW said:
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.0 -
I seem to remember we were told it was a game changer.FrancisUrquhart said:Has this been mentioned?
Andy Coulson perjury trial date put back
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-322882480 -
Plan B is already being planned, it would seem, as we have known for some weeks: to my mind, the question is, at what level the planning is being done.Dair said:I wonder what chance there is of open war breaking out between Jim Murphy and London Labour. He can't be at all happy at being forced into the role and by now must think that his usual "under the radar" anonymity might have allowed him to keep his constituency seat.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.
http://www.trademarkroom.com/activists-apply-to-trademark-scottish-labour-party/
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Actually, there was one other part of the manifesto that made me take notice, and that was the bit about Scotland having voted overwhelmingly for massive change, which as I'm sure others have noted is a bit of a generous interpretation, even if we take promises of changes afterwards to be what people were voting for, given the alternative outcome was surely the way they could have gotten even more massive change.0
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I notice that nobody is picking up Labour's claim no additional borrowing...mumble mumble, unless for investment. Brown used to call everything "investment", to the extent am surprised he didn't file the cost of his incredibly well paid and rarely seen cleaner as an investment to improve the time and motion infrastructure of his flat.MikeK said:This is an election fought on the basis of an economic lie
The two main parties are locked in a battle of dreary "sameness". Small wonder so little separates them in the polls
Legatum Institute @LegatumInst 16m16 minutes ago
Jeremy Warner scathing in @telegraph: 'This election is being fought on an economic lie' http://ow.ly/Ly7pP0 -
Interesting to read the SPIN figures. All the minor parties moving about slightly - but Con and Lab maintaining the 11 difference.0
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Seeing Ed on the news, he comes across well in his delivery - confidence and passion. I just think the emphasis is all wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow the Tories will offer us a repeat of their 2010 nonsense.0 -
It's a strange election. At this point in 2010 I'd received hardly any leaflets through my door but had had lots of conversations about the election with family, friends and colleagues. This time it's quite the reverse. There's a never-ending stream of political leaflets coming through my front door but nobody is talking about the election this time.0
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JackW said:
Pleasing to note your return, amongst other PB old timers, that in your case is somewhat like finding a comfy pair of brogues, seemingly lost in the wilderness of a spare room gentleman's wardrobe.
OLD?? BROGUES ????
How dare you sir! If I were a gentleman I would be sending my seconds round to arrange things, as it is, I will merely wave my curling tongs in your general direction and hope that Mrs JackW takes you in hand
;-)
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I would like Scotland to be an independent Republic.Beverley_C said:
I was not a big fan of Indy Scotland, but after the campaign and some of the comments and invective that were flungaabout, I rather came around to the idea. If Scottish Independence took their civil war off my radio then it might have been a price worth paying. It would have been even more interesting listening to them justify their finances, based in expensive oil, just after the oil price collapse.Dair said:
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.
If SLAB get wiped out north of the border then it would be very interesting because thanks to the oil fiasco, the SNP dare not base their finances on oil. What happened once can happen again.
So, no SLAB and and SNP that cannot afford independence.
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I prefer Oxfords.Beverley_C said:JackW said:
Pleasing to note your return, amongst other PB old timers, that in your case is somewhat like finding a comfy pair of brogues, seemingly lost in the wilderness of a spare room gentleman's wardrobe.
OLD?? BROGUES ????
How dare you sir! If I were a gentleman I would be sending my seconds round to arrange things, as it is, I will merely wave my curling tongs in your general direction and hope that Mrs JackW takes you in hand
;-)0 -
Well its heading to an English Parliament, and I hate the idea. A tory majority would give us EVEL as starters, but if thats undermined we are heading for an English Parliament. What I would not settle for is 6 or 7 parliaments in England. This is where EVEL is an initial safer bet.Beverley_C said:BTW, whatever happened the English Parliament or the more silly "Grand Committee" idea?
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I disagree that ICM is an 'outlier'. Their last three polls have been Con +4, Con +1 and Con +6. That suggests to me that in the absence of movement (and there's been precious little evidence for that elsewhere), the Con lead with ICM house effects is about three or four. A +6 score is well within MoE and therefore not an outlier as such.
The question is how accurate ICM's house effects are. They have never been particularly favourable to UKIP and that's now showing itself. Is that right? With UKIP themselves having so little track record at a GE, who knows? We know they can do it in Euros, locals, by-elections and PCC elections, but the big one is still an unknown quantity.0 -
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.Plato said:Mr Smirnoff beckons.
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.JackW said:
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
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After Marie Rimmer was given a post-election trial date, it was pretty clear the Coulson trial wouldn't proceed. One might think someone is pulling levers behind the scenes were you a wearer of a tin hat.FrancisUrquhart said:Has this been mentioned?
Andy Coulson perjury trial date put back
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-322882480 -
Do NOT take the Good Lady Jack to see the new version of Cinderella.JackW said:
Don't encourage Mrs JackW .... I'm already worried enough by the return of the reincarnation of Imelda Marcos - aka Beverley_Cphiliph said:Glass slippers?
Edit: the With high heels?
Them crystal slippers look DAMNED expensive....!0 -
Just in from customer meetings, I am watching RedHellYesEd speech. Anyone else notice that it is like the Quiet Man speech of IDS.
"I am Ready, I am Ready....."0 -
FPT:
It hasn't unravelled.Bob__Sykes said:What a shame the ICM poll unravelled after about 30 minutes. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
If it looked obviously "too Tory a sample", and the sub-sample numbers were coming out plainly ridiculous, why could they not adjust it to make it representative?
Surely ICM have their credibility shot away to buggery if they think the Tories are on 35% in Scotland, running the SNP close on 44%? Or leading Labour in the north and amongst C2s?
Can't imagine the Guardian leading for much longer on this obviously duff poll!
Consider:
The subsamples have very small numbers involved, so percentage representation of, say "C2"s on their own looks bigger than it should be. Using the raw numbers, Labour actually make up for it on the C1s, so random sample variation seems to cancel out.
I had a look at MORI's figures for how each demographic went last time, and then applied a swing to get to what we'd expect for a poll of 39-33.
ABs - in ICM: 71 Con; 57 Lab
We'd expect somewhere close to 69:49, so they found 2 more Cons than we'd expect and 8 more Lab. All within normal variance, albeit a more Labour sample than expected.
C1s: 58 Con; 67 Lab
We'd expect 67:51. So they found 9 fewer Tories and 16 extra Labourites amongst the C1s. Again, within sample variation, but definitely a Labour tinge.
C2s: 47 Con; 23 Lab
We'd expect 36:29. So 11 extra Tories and 6 fewer Labourites than the perfect sample; again not really an issue; a subsample with a Tory tinge.
DEs: 47 Con, 41 Lab
We'd expect 38 Con to 50 Lab. So 11 extra Tories and 9 fewer Labour; another subsample with a Tory tinge.
Conclusions:
- The numbers of respondents are small enough that these variations are not huge.
- Labour does better than expected among AB and C1; Tories better than expected among C2s and DEs (Hmm. Interesting that no-one highlighting the C2s and DEs bothered to mention the ABs and C1s...)
Overall, across the demographics, there are 13 more Conservative respondents than you'd expect - and 9 more Labour ones. So if it distorted the result, it's by 4 respondents out of over a thousand!0 -
They won't be if they hang on to their Lab/LD marginals.Dair said:
Wonder how much interest there will be for this. Personally I won't be watching, he and his party are utterly irrelevant to this election.JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.0 -
Hello Fitalass - I hope you Fitalad and the boys are keeping well.fitalass said:Twitter
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson now1 minute ago
Damian McBride on Labour manifesto: "Forget the longest suicide note in history; whoever wrote this would have died of boredom first"
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Gods, is there any way for them to win? Seriously, without the SLAB collapse in Scotland, how were the Tories even hoping to come close?MikeSmithson said:
On the subject of the election being fought on an economic lie, surely that is because the public punishes anyone who dares say the truth. We get the politicians we deserve, quite frankly. And since people are not, as yet, leaving the big two in droves (except in Scotland), clearly the people are not that angry about the lie, even if they remain unenthused.
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A friend told me the other day that the Conservatives had backed down from English votes for English laws and were just offering an English committee somewhere along the lawmaking process. I'm not sure whether it's true or not, but it will be disappointing if it is the case.Flightpath said:
Well its heading to an English Parliament, and I hate the idea. A tory majority would give us EVEL as starters, but if thats undermined we are heading for an English Parliament. What I would not settle for is 6 or 7 parliaments in England. This is where EVEL is an initial safer bet.Beverley_C said:BTW, whatever happened the English Parliament or the more silly "Grand Committee" idea?
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If tomorrow the Tories DO go with the suggested leak of a tax-free Minimum Wage (albeit for the first 30 hours only) then I think Labour could just have landed in World of Pain....SandyRentool said:Seeing Ed on the news, he comes across well in his delivery - confidence and passion. I just think the emphasis is all wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow the Tories will offer us a repeat of their 2010 nonsense.0 -
Jeremy Warner and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: if either of them had been fund managers then they would have lost all their clients' money. I cannot think of a poorer pair of prognosticators.MikeK said:This is an election fought on the basis of an economic lie
The two main parties are locked in a battle of dreary "sameness". Small wonder so little separates them in the polls
Legatum Institute @LegatumInst 16m16 minutes ago
Jeremy Warner scathing in @telegraph: 'This election is being fought on an economic lie' http://ow.ly/Ly7pP0 -
Anyway, all of these polling movements are outweighed by random noise in any case. One thing we can take away:
- It's pretty close; possibly the Tories have a slim lead.
- Both of them are in the region close to the middle thirties.
- The Lib Dems do seem to have recovered slightly across all polls.
- UKIP do seem to be fading overall (despite a good Ashcroft for them); low teens at best.
One element I did notice in the ICM - the marginals sampling they did seemed to indicate polarisation depending on which side held it - comparable with the 2001 election where incumbents tended to pull away from challengers in both directions.0 -
Given it was Camelon Social Club part of Falkirk CLP I always suspected this was more mischief making by Eric Joyce supporters.Carnyx said:
Plan B is already being planned, it would seem, as we have known for some weeks: to my mind, the question is, at what level the planning is being done.Dair said:I wonder what chance there is of open war breaking out between Jim Murphy and London Labour. He can't be at all happy at being forced into the role and by now must think that his usual "under the radar" anonymity might have allowed him to keep his constituency seat.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.
http://www.trademarkroom.com/activists-apply-to-trademark-scottish-labour-party/0 -
If the Tories are quick about it, the SCon could declare independence from London (or have it forced on them), rebrand, make some symbolic break with the Thatcherite legacy and sweep up the pro-union centre-right. Ruth Davidson for LotOiH!Dair said:I wonder what chance there is of open war breaking out between Jim Murphy and London Labour. He can't be at all happy at being forced into the role and by now must think that his usual "under the radar" anonymity might have allowed him to keep his constituency seat.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.0 -
Opponents of the LibDems have been saying for decades that their party in national terms is "utterly irrelevant" and yet there they've been in power for the last five years.Dair said:
Wonder how much interest there will be for this. Personally I won't be watching, he and his party are utterly irrelevant to this election.JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
I'm afraid you let your SNP tinted specs blind you to all but the perceived wonders of Sturgeon.
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I always had a sentimental attachment to the whole of the UK and particularly since some of my family came from Dumfrieshire and Dunfermline (sp?) and having grown up in Northern Ireland I always understood the strength of the union with the mainland. Nonetheless if they had voted for independence I would have fully supported them going.surbiton said:
I would like Scotland to be an independent Republic.
I suppose that makes me ambivalent on the whole thing.
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ICM might end up being more or less right, for the wrong reasons.david_herdson said:I disagree that ICM is an 'outlier'. Their last three polls have been Con +4, Con +1 and Con +6. That suggests to me that in the absence of movement (and there's been precious little evidence for that elsewhere), the Con lead with ICM house effects is about three or four. A +6 score is well within MoE and therefore not an outlier as such.
The question is how accurate ICM's house effects are. They have never been particularly favourable to UKIP and that's now showing itself. Is that right? With UKIP themselves having so little track record at a GE, who knows? We know they can do it in Euros, locals, by-elections and PCC elections, but the big one is still an unknown quantity.
Let me explain: ICM weightings on past vote are unfavourable to UKIP. So if a sudden election had been held (I mean, out of nowhere) in November or December, it might have been wrong.
But, if lots of UKIP voters do return to the Tories on the day itself, then it may well turn out to be right and its methodology vindicated. Purely because UKIP supporters disproportionately tactically voted Tory out of fear of an SNP/Labour government.
(PS. I recognise that that's a bit of a circular argument - in the sense that one could argue ICM had the foresight to realise in its methodology that UKIP voters would always come home, in a way that other pollsters didn't - but I don't think that's correct because no-one knew just how likely a Lab/SNP backed government would look in the final month or two, nor how heavily and successfully the Tories would campaign on it)0 -
The one thing I take from Lord A's polling today is from the graph at the top of the page that shows we have have basically the same result as a year ago. How much change can we expect in 3 weeks? Not a lot I would think,overall it will just come to where exactly the votes are cast.0
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I'm not an expert in the various forms of Labour life, so you may well be right, but the original Herald piece (as the repeat here indicates) did specify that they were Murphyites: how correctly I wouldn't know.Dair said:
Given it was Camelon Social Club part of Falkirk CLP I always suspected this was more mischief making by Eric Joyce supporters.Carnyx said:
Plan B is already being planned, it would seem, as we have known for some weeks: to my mind, the question is, at what level the planning is being done.Dair said:I wonder what chance there is of open war breaking out between Jim Murphy and London Labour. He can't be at all happy at being forced into the role and by now must think that his usual "under the radar" anonymity might have allowed him to keep his constituency seat.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.
http://www.trademarkroom.com/activists-apply-to-trademark-scottish-labour-party/0 -
The key difference in the 2 polls is the UKIP vote, 7% with ICM, 13% with Ashcroft, which is why the Tory vote is 6% higher with ICM. I doubt UKIP to Tory switching has occurred that much, but there may have been some post the IHT cut announcement0
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Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.0 -
Dair Murphy led the SNP narrowly in East Renfrewshire in Ashcroft's March poll0
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Quite so. And, though unlikely, could be again. Even with half the seats they have now, they would not be irrelevant given the context they might find themselves in. Dismissing them because they are not a contender for getting into power themselves ignores that they are an obstacle to the big two - perhaps not as much of one as they have been for the last decade or so, but that's still significant.JackW said:
Opponents of the LibDems have been saying for decades that their party in national terms is "utterly irrelevant" and yet there they've been in power for the last five years.Dair said:
Wonder how much interest there will be for this. Personally I won't be watching, he and his party are utterly irrelevant to this election.JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Hell, given how tight this election might be, the 5 Sinn Fein MPs are not irrelevant to the election, and they don't even show up - in fact that is why they are relevant.
When I see claims any party is irrelevant it just puts me in mind of wishful thinking, as all sides know their job would be so much easier without them. It's the same with Scottish Tories - sure, there aren't many of them, and in terms of MPs or winnable seats they don't impact much, but they do still affect the result elsewhere.
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Quite so. And, though unlikely, could be again. Even with half the seats they have now, they would not be irrelevant given the context they might find themselves in. Dismissing them because they are not a contender for getting into power themselves ignores that they are an obstacle to the big two - perhaps not as much of one as they have been for the last decade or so, but that's still significant.JackW said:
Opponents of the LibDems have been saying for decades that their party in national terms is "utterly irrelevant" and yet there they've been in power for the last five years.Dair said:
Wonder how much interest there will be for this. Personally I won't be watching, he and his party are utterly irrelevant to this election.JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Hell, given how tight this election might be, the 5 Sinn Fein MPs are not irrelevant to the election, and they don't even show up - in fact that is why they are relevant.
When I see claims any party is irrelevant it just puts me in mind of wishful thinking, as all sides know their job would be so much easier without them. It's the same with Scottish Tories - sure, there aren't many of them, and in terms of MPs or winnable seats they don't impact much, but they do still affect the result elsewhere.
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Perhaps it's because your posts are defamatory.MikeK said:Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.0 -
This was obviously going to happen.philiph said:
I seem to remember we were told it was a game changer.FrancisUrquhart said:Has this been mentioned?
Andy Coulson perjury trial date put back
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-322882480 -
I could cope with an English Parliament. Everyone else has one, so why not us as well? However, I agree about the regional assemblies - they are not a good idea.Flightpath said:
Well its heading to an English Parliament, and I hate the idea. A tory majority would give us EVEL as starters, but if thats undermined we are heading for an English Parliament. What I would not settle for is 6 or 7 parliaments in England. This is where EVEL is an initial safer bet.Beverley_C said:BTW, whatever happened the English Parliament or the more silly "Grand Committee" idea?
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OGH dislikes the inference, and rightly so, that the polls are rigged in some fashion.MikeK said:Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.
Will you pay his legal bills?
Polls may be correct or not for a variety of reasons and their valid interpretation is a matter for genuine discussion but rubbishing them because you think they are fraudulent is simply not acceptable.
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On the raw data the SNP were actually slightly ahead, it required a spiral of silence adjustment to give Murphy his slender lead. I think the pollsters need to be more transparent about these adjustments.HYUFD said:Dair Murphy led the SNP narrowly in East Renfrewshire in Ashcroft's March poll
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Funnily enough, just Good Life on DVD arrived. Along with Morecambe and Wise.JackW said:
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.Plato said:Mr Smirnoff beckons.
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.JackW said:
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....0 -
I'm sure if ICM had shown Lab 6% in the lead then Ashcroft's poll tie would similarly have put it in context too.0
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An interesting link, courtesy of Guido
http://www.capx.co/its-unlikely-that-miliband-and-balls-will-get-more-tax-out-of-us-brits-however-hard-they-try/
''tax revenues are dynamic: a tax penalises economic activity, and if we increase the level of penalty, the immutable law of supply and demand cuts in – and economic activity lessens.''
Different countries have a 'natural level' of tax and ours is 35% of GDP. That is already high for the type of country we are when compared with say France and Norway.
This points to why Brown's massive post 2000 spending spree never generated the taxes needed to fun it.
It points to why we have to keep spending under control.
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It was a statistical tie and since then, national polling is showing improved SNP results. You can fairly safely expect the SNP to have a narrow lead by now. Locally, all they need to focus on is the danger of a Tory win to suck up enough of the remaining Labour vote.HYUFD said:Dair Murphy led the SNP narrowly in East Renfrewshire in Ashcroft's March poll
It is a reasonable chance of Murphy coming a poor third.0 -
Just another normal hard working individual...
http://order-order.com/2015/04/13/union-thug-proud-of-riot-and-the-labour-manifesto/0 -
Anatole Kaletsky perhaps. The archetypical canary in the coal mine for latching onto the wrong end of the stick. I suppose he had the balls to launch a consultancy. Don't know whether it's succeeding: the lack of friendly media time could go either way here.rcs1000 said:
Jeremy Warner and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: if either of them had been fund managers then they would have lost all their clients' money. I cannot think of a poorer pair of prognosticators.MikeK said:This is an election fought on the basis of an economic lie
The two main parties are locked in a battle of dreary "sameness". Small wonder so little separates them in the polls
Legatum Institute @LegatumInst 16m16 minutes ago
Jeremy Warner scathing in @telegraph: 'This election is being fought on an economic lie' http://ow.ly/Ly7pP0 -
AbsolutelyScrapheap_as_was said:
I'm sure if ICM had shown Lab 6% in the lead then Ashcroft's poll tie would similarly have put it in context too.
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The odds in Paisley and Renfrewshire South look 50 shades of wrong there too. High profile contest at any rate. But Dougie should not be odds on to hold his seat.Dair said:
It was a statistical tie and since then, national polling is showing improved SNP results. You can fairly safely expect the SNP to have a narrow lead by now. Locally, all they need to focus on is the danger of a Tory win to suck up enough of the remaining Labour vote.HYUFD said:Dair Murphy led the SNP narrowly in East Renfrewshire in Ashcroft's March poll
It is a reasonable chance of Murphy coming a poor third.0 -
Its amazing that Labour only now can say - 'we will investigate'. Sounds positively kipperish.FrancisUrquhart said:Just another normal hard working individual...
http://order-order.com/2015/04/13/union-thug-proud-of-riot-and-the-labour-manifesto/
Is this the worst ever manifesto launch? If I believed everybody round here labour were knocking spots off the Tories.
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Happy viewing.Plato said:Funnily enough, just Good Life on DVD arrived. Along with Morecambe and Wise.
JackW said:
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.Plato said:Mr Smirnoff beckons.
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.JackW said:
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Eric Morecombe was a resident of Harpenden for many a long year and his widow still lives in the family home. Eric was a charming man and as funny in "normal life" as he was in show biz. He remains much missed.
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It's unlikely to have been a fix, Dair, and even if it was, it wouldn't worry me.Dair said:
After Marie Rimmer was given a post-election trial date, it was pretty clear the Coulson trial wouldn't proceed. One might think someone is pulling levers behind the scenes were you a wearer of a tin hat.FrancisUrquhart said:Has this been mentioned?
Andy Coulson perjury trial date put back
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-32288248
Whilst I'm all in favor of drawing attention to the links between Murdoch and the Chipping Norton crowd, I don't think it's sensible to have a trial with likely political implications taking place during an election.
It would distort the election picture artificially, and simply isn't fair to the defendant.
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Wasn't he a Luton Town supporter, Jack?JackW said:
Happy viewing.Plato said:Funnily enough, just Good Life on DVD arrived. Along with Morecambe and Wise.
JackW said:
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.Plato said:Mr Smirnoff beckons.
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.JackW said:
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Eric Morecombe was a resident of Harpenden for many a long year and his widow still lives in the family home. Eric was a charming man and as funny in "normal life" as he was in show biz. He remains much missed.
I guess we all make mistakes in our youth.0 -
BBC Scotland and STV News both leading heavily with Murphy's embarrassment over his lie on Sunday, that the Eds kicked into touch today,.
But more telling is that Guido (and presumably the rest of the right wing press) are now spinning it the other way - Murphy's claim of no cuts means the Eds are the ones lying.
http://order-order.com/2015/04/13/murphy-blows-labours-fiscal-responsibility-line/#_@/x_w5JZwgblzmkg
What masterful strategy from Labour.0 -
Calum/Pulpstar/Dair On present Scottish polls with Labour losing almost 3/4 of their seats of course it is at risk, but for the moment Murphy is not trailing. The poll was taken in March so little change, I would suggest most Tories would tactically vote for Murphy over the SNP0
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The 6% doesn't seem so very far out of line when you look at ICM's recent polling record.Scrapheap_as_was said:I'm sure if ICM had shown Lab 6% in the lead then Ashcroft's poll tie would similarly have put it in context too.
There seems to be something in their methodology that generates rather high Tory scores. You then only need a bluish sample combined with a genuine if small swing to the Tories (as picked up by other firms) and you arrive at a startlingly large lead.
It doesn't make them wrong, or right, just different. As punters and political anoraks we just have to use our best judgement based on the facts firms like that are providing.
I'm still thinking it's NOM with Tory/Lab seats about level, but you pays yer penny....0 -
Clegg acting very tetchy in the interview on BBC1. He really comes across as yesterday's man during this election campaign.0
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A bit disappointed with the Labour manifesto so far.Nothing exciting but we are told that they have a few policies up their sleeves for later.I hope they are better.0
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What upsets me is the cost and an unnecessary extra layer of govt - mostly spending money raised outside their control.Beverley_C said:
I could cope with an English Parliament. Everyone else has one, so why not us as well? However, I agree about the regional assemblies - they are not a good idea.Flightpath said:
Well its heading to an English Parliament, and I hate the idea. A tory majority would give us EVEL as starters, but if thats undermined we are heading for an English Parliament. What I would not settle for is 6 or 7 parliaments in England. This is where EVEL is an initial safer bet.Beverley_C said:BTW, whatever happened the English Parliament or the more silly "Grand Committee" idea?
There will be objections for an English Parliament in the UK as it will be said it would be too big in relation to the others.
Regional Parliaments would balkanise the UK and take away its identity. 'Assemblies' are even worse. England is a nation and should not be broken up on the whim of the SNP. It is for this reason that Labour deserve to be wiped out in Scotland. They created a cackhanded devolution and created this mess.
If EVEL fails then we may be headed for an English parliament but there are dangers according to how it is set up.0 -
Casino- I am so very pleased that you are back on an even keel. I feared very much for a pbCOM meltdown if another adverse poll had come along for your side.Casino_Royale said:
ICM might end up being more or less right, for the wrong reasons.david_herdson said:I disagree that ICM is an 'outlier'. Their last three polls have been Con +4, Con +1 and Con +6. That suggests to me that in the absence of movement (and there's been precious little evidence for that elsewhere), the Con lead with ICM house effects is about three or four. A +6 score is well within MoE and therefore not an outlier as such.
The question is how accurate ICM's house effects are. They have never been particularly favourable to UKIP and that's now showing itself. Is that right? With UKIP themselves having so little track record at a GE, who knows? We know they can do it in Euros, locals, by-elections and PCC elections, but the big one is still an unknown quantity.
Let me explain: ICM weightings on past vote are unfavourable to UKIP. So if a sudden election had been held (I mean, out of nowhere) in November or December, it might have been wrong.
But, if lots of UKIP voters do return to the Tories on the day itself, then it may well turn out to be right and its methodology vindicated. Purely because UKIP supporters disproportionately tactically voted Tory out of fear of an SNP/Labour government.
(PS. I recognise that that's a bit of a circular argument - in the sense that one could argue ICM had the foresight to realise in its methodology that UKIP voters would always come home, in a way that other pollsters didn't - but I don't think that's correct because no-one knew just how likely a Lab/SNP backed government would look in the final month or two, nor how heavily and successfully the Tories would campaign on it)
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Indeed he was .... but then he had a wonderful sense of humour.Peter_the_Punter said:
Wasn't he a Luton Town supporter, Jack?JackW said:
Happy viewing.Plato said:Funnily enough, just Good Life on DVD arrived. Along with Morecambe and Wise.
JackW said:
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.Plato said:Mr Smirnoff beckons.
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.JackW said:
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.Plato said:Oh, thanx for the tip - will attempt to still be sober in 40 mins.
Err...JackW said:Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Eric Morecombe was a resident of Harpenden for many a long year and his widow still lives in the family home. Eric was a charming man and as funny in "normal life" as he was in show biz. He remains much missed.
I guess we all make mistakes in our youth.
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So what has Martin Boon said?0
