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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord As
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord Ashcroft
I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture.
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Edit: the With high heels?
Talk about the triumph of short-term tactics over strategy.
Given we have so many polls these days, we would expect to see more polls right at the extreme bounds of confidence in a campaign.
Reported Tory vote shares of 39% and 33% could both correct once you take errors into account.
Imelda Marcos had no taste in shoes ... so many awful ones, except for the 1,738 pairs that where actually quite nice.
I hope you are feeling better Mr JackW and that Mrs JackW is keeping well. It is good to see you posting again.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
But now he has nothing to lose. He's out of a job, our of a career and being directly undermined by the head office in London. It might be that he decides to steer Labour in Scotland towards its separation from London Labour creating a problem for Ed n Ed which might damage them before the election (especially if it's clear he's now fighting the election on an anti-austerity ticket".
It won't help him or Scottish Labour but the need for revenge would be, I think, a strong motivator for Murphy from here on in.
Plus in the long run, separation from London might help Labour in Scotland recover. I do like this irony. Only independence from London can save Scottish Labour now.
Dave Can't Win Here.
Well that's a complete surprise.
Just listened to 15 mins of R5, John Pienaar giving Ed Miliband massive thumbs up, all rosy, all great, what a man, fiscially responsible, Tories unfunded, etc etc etc...15sec at the end, IFS say not so sure about the figures, and back to you.
Now I know John is a signed up Labour man and that Ed tried to hire him as his spokesman, but at least pretend to be impartial, not come out with things like "I was shocked, absolutely shocked at the announcements, in a really good way"...I think he only just managed not to come out with a "when we are back in government" moment in all his excitement.
Think Flamenco.
Err...
Still holding my end up, which is nothing short of a minor medical miracle.
Mrs JackW continues to enjoy rude health that at times appears in direct opposition to the health of my wallet. Twas ever thus.
Pleasing to note your return, amongst other PB old timers, that in your case is somewhat like finding a comfy pair of brogues, seemingly lost in the wilderness of a spare room gentleman's wardrobe.
Welcome back.
It depends on the guy!
FPT: Camel hair handbag? I imagine that would be very coarse fabric. What does it feel like? Has it been trained not to spit?
Andy Coulson perjury trial date put back
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-32288248
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson now1 minute ago
Damian McBride on Labour manifesto: "Forget the longest suicide note in history; whoever wrote this would have died of boredom first"
Bought from a tannery in Morocco that stank of dead camels - it was wretchingly notable. The vats of various skins were errr - memorable.
I'm pretty good at not-noticing, but this was a trial.
If SLAB get wiped out north of the border then it would be very interesting because thanks to the oil fiasco, the SNP dare not base their finances on oil. What happened once can happen again.
So, no SLAB and and SNP that cannot afford independence.
The two main parties are locked in a battle of dreary "sameness". Small wonder so little separates them in the polls
Legatum Institute @LegatumInst 16m16 minutes ago
Jeremy Warner scathing in @telegraph: 'This election is being fought on an economic lie' http://ow.ly/Ly7pP
Listening to LDs just bores me stiff. So We're Not Them.
http://www.trademarkroom.com/activists-apply-to-trademark-scottish-labour-party/
Hopefully tomorrow the Tories will offer us a repeat of their 2010 nonsense.
OLD?? BROGUES ????
How dare you sir! If I were a gentleman I would be sending my seconds round to arrange things, as it is, I will merely wave my curling tongs in your general direction and hope that Mrs JackW takes you in hand
;-)
The question is how accurate ICM's house effects are. They have never been particularly favourable to UKIP and that's now showing itself. Is that right? With UKIP themselves having so little track record at a GE, who knows? We know they can do it in Euros, locals, by-elections and PCC elections, but the big one is still an unknown quantity.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Them crystal slippers look DAMNED expensive....!
"I am Ready, I am Ready....."
Consider:
The subsamples have very small numbers involved, so percentage representation of, say "C2"s on their own looks bigger than it should be. Using the raw numbers, Labour actually make up for it on the C1s, so random sample variation seems to cancel out.
I had a look at MORI's figures for how each demographic went last time, and then applied a swing to get to what we'd expect for a poll of 39-33.
ABs - in ICM: 71 Con; 57 Lab
We'd expect somewhere close to 69:49, so they found 2 more Cons than we'd expect and 8 more Lab. All within normal variance, albeit a more Labour sample than expected.
C1s: 58 Con; 67 Lab
We'd expect 67:51. So they found 9 fewer Tories and 16 extra Labourites amongst the C1s. Again, within sample variation, but definitely a Labour tinge.
C2s: 47 Con; 23 Lab
We'd expect 36:29. So 11 extra Tories and 6 fewer Labourites than the perfect sample; again not really an issue; a subsample with a Tory tinge.
DEs: 47 Con, 41 Lab
We'd expect 38 Con to 50 Lab. So 11 extra Tories and 9 fewer Labour; another subsample with a Tory tinge.
Conclusions:
- The numbers of respondents are small enough that these variations are not huge.
- Labour does better than expected among AB and C1; Tories better than expected among C2s and DEs (Hmm. Interesting that no-one highlighting the C2s and DEs bothered to mention the ABs and C1s...)
Overall, across the demographics, there are 13 more Conservative respondents than you'd expect - and 9 more Labour ones. So if it distorted the result, it's by 4 respondents out of over a thousand!
On the subject of the election being fought on an economic lie, surely that is because the public punishes anyone who dares say the truth. We get the politicians we deserve, quite frankly. And since people are not, as yet, leaving the big two in droves (except in Scotland), clearly the people are not that angry about the lie, even if they remain unenthused.
- It's pretty close; possibly the Tories have a slim lead.
- Both of them are in the region close to the middle thirties.
- The Lib Dems do seem to have recovered slightly across all polls.
- UKIP do seem to be fading overall (despite a good Ashcroft for them); low teens at best.
One element I did notice in the ICM - the marginals sampling they did seemed to indicate polarisation depending on which side held it - comparable with the 2001 election where incumbents tended to pull away from challengers in both directions.
I'm afraid you let your SNP tinted specs blind you to all but the perceived wonders of Sturgeon.
I suppose that makes me ambivalent on the whole thing.
Let me explain: ICM weightings on past vote are unfavourable to UKIP. So if a sudden election had been held (I mean, out of nowhere) in November or December, it might have been wrong.
But, if lots of UKIP voters do return to the Tories on the day itself, then it may well turn out to be right and its methodology vindicated. Purely because UKIP supporters disproportionately tactically voted Tory out of fear of an SNP/Labour government.
(PS. I recognise that that's a bit of a circular argument - in the sense that one could argue ICM had the foresight to realise in its methodology that UKIP voters would always come home, in a way that other pollsters didn't - but I don't think that's correct because no-one knew just how likely a Lab/SNP backed government would look in the final month or two, nor how heavily and successfully the Tories would campaign on it)
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.
Hell, given how tight this election might be, the 5 Sinn Fein MPs are not irrelevant to the election, and they don't even show up - in fact that is why they are relevant.
When I see claims any party is irrelevant it just puts me in mind of wishful thinking, as all sides know their job would be so much easier without them. It's the same with Scottish Tories - sure, there aren't many of them, and in terms of MPs or winnable seats they don't impact much, but they do still affect the result elsewhere.
Hell, given how tight this election might be, the 5 Sinn Fein MPs are not irrelevant to the election, and they don't even show up - in fact that is why they are relevant.
When I see claims any party is irrelevant it just puts me in mind of wishful thinking, as all sides know their job would be so much easier without them. It's the same with Scottish Tories - sure, there aren't many of them, and in terms of MPs or winnable seats they don't impact much, but they do still affect the result elsewhere.
Will you pay his legal bills?
Polls may be correct or not for a variety of reasons and their valid interpretation is a matter for genuine discussion but rubbishing them because you think they are fraudulent is simply not acceptable.
http://www.capx.co/its-unlikely-that-miliband-and-balls-will-get-more-tax-out-of-us-brits-however-hard-they-try/
''tax revenues are dynamic: a tax penalises economic activity, and if we increase the level of penalty, the immutable law of supply and demand cuts in – and economic activity lessens.''
Different countries have a 'natural level' of tax and ours is 35% of GDP. That is already high for the type of country we are when compared with say France and Norway.
This points to why Brown's massive post 2000 spending spree never generated the taxes needed to fun it.
It points to why we have to keep spending under control.
It is a reasonable chance of Murphy coming a poor third.
http://order-order.com/2015/04/13/union-thug-proud-of-riot-and-the-labour-manifesto/
Is this the worst ever manifesto launch? If I believed everybody round here labour were knocking spots off the Tories.
Eric Morecombe was a resident of Harpenden for many a long year and his widow still lives in the family home. Eric was a charming man and as funny in "normal life" as he was in show biz. He remains much missed.
Whilst I'm all in favor of drawing attention to the links between Murdoch and the Chipping Norton crowd, I don't think it's sensible to have a trial with likely political implications taking place during an election.
It would distort the election picture artificially, and simply isn't fair to the defendant.
I guess we all make mistakes in our youth.
But more telling is that Guido (and presumably the rest of the right wing press) are now spinning it the other way - Murphy's claim of no cuts means the Eds are the ones lying.
http://order-order.com/2015/04/13/murphy-blows-labours-fiscal-responsibility-line/#_@/x_w5JZwgblzmkg
What masterful strategy from Labour.
There seems to be something in their methodology that generates rather high Tory scores. You then only need a bluish sample combined with a genuine if small swing to the Tories (as picked up by other firms) and you arrive at a startlingly large lead.
It doesn't make them wrong, or right, just different. As punters and political anoraks we just have to use our best judgement based on the facts firms like that are providing.
I'm still thinking it's NOM with Tory/Lab seats about level, but you pays yer penny....
There will be objections for an English Parliament in the UK as it will be said it would be too big in relation to the others.
Regional Parliaments would balkanise the UK and take away its identity. 'Assemblies' are even worse. England is a nation and should not be broken up on the whim of the SNP. It is for this reason that Labour deserve to be wiped out in Scotland. They created a cackhanded devolution and created this mess.
If EVEL fails then we may be headed for an English parliament but there are dangers according to how it is set up.