"Will the @LordAshcroft phone poll, due at 4pm support ICM? They broadly similar approaches and ICM often carries out the Lord A fieldwork" (M Smithson tweet)
Can anyone who knows the answer confirm/deny the extraordinary (to me) implication of this that Lord A is using more than one company for the Monday polls, but presenting those polls as a series?
"Will the @LordAshcroft phone poll, due at 4pm support ICM? They broadly similar approaches and ICM often carries out the Lord A fieldwork" (M Smithson tweet)
Can anyone who knows the answer confirm/deny the extraordinary (to me) implication of this that Lord A is using more than one company for the Monday polls, but presenting those polls as a series?
I'm with you on this. I suspect the likely suggested answer is libellous so no one anywhere mentions it.
Dair Murphy led the SNP narrowly in East Renfrewshire in Ashcroft's March poll
It was a statistical tie and since then, national polling is showing improved SNP results. You can fairly safely expect the SNP to have a narrow lead by now. Locally, all they need to focus on is the danger of a Tory win to suck up enough of the remaining Labour vote.
It is a reasonable chance of Murphy coming a poor third.
The odds in Paisley and Renfrewshire South look 50 shades of wrong there too. High profile contest at any rate. But Dougie should not be odds on to hold his seat.
P&RS is, I think, an example of the market over-thinking the outcome. Punters are saying "can a 20 year old beat an old stager like Alexander". But voters won't necessarily think that way - ESPECIALLY not SNP voters, people with commitment.
I was thinking about this yesterday and realised - I don't know the name of my candidate in Glasgow Central. I've had the letter (as they have me on their "confirmed list") and won't get anything else. But I didn't read the letter, no interest in doing so, just binned it. Committed voters don't read the literature, it goes in the bin.
Most voters who vote Mhairi Black won't know she is 20. Those that do, probably won't care. The market is looking too closely at it, hence the odds on Dougie.
After Marie Rimmer was given a post-election trial date, it was pretty clear the Coulson trial wouldn't proceed. One might think someone is pulling levers behind the scenes were you a wearer of a tin hat.
It's unlikely to have been a fix, Dair, and even if it was, it wouldn't worry me.
Whilst I'm all in favor of drawing attention to the links between Murdoch and the Chipping Norton crowd, I don't think it's sensible to have a trial with likely political implications taking place during an election.
It would distort the election picture artificially, and simply isn't fair to the defendant.
Do the voters of St Helens not deserve to know if their Labour PPC is a convicted thug? If the allegations are untrue, does Marie Rimmer not deserve to be standing without an alleged assault charge against her name?
Perhaps due to its wider scope of political fallout and lack of a PPC as Defender, the Coulson delay is understandable. But Rimmer never should have been given a delay.
I disagree that ICM is an 'outlier'. Their last three polls have been Con +4, Con +1 and Con +6. That suggests to me that in the absence of movement (and there's been precious little evidence for that elsewhere), the Con lead with ICM house effects is about three or four. A +6 score is well within MoE and therefore not an outlier as such.
The question is how accurate ICM's house effects are. They have never been particularly favourable to UKIP and that's now showing itself. Is that right? With UKIP themselves having so little track record at a GE, who knows? We know they can do it in Euros, locals, by-elections and PCC elections, but the big one is still an unknown quantity.
ICM might end up being more or less right, for the wrong reasons.
Let me explain: ICM weightings on past vote are unfavourable to UKIP. So if a sudden election had been held (I mean, out of nowhere) in November or December, it might have been wrong.
But, if lots of UKIP voters do return to the Tories on the day itself, then it may well turn out to be right and its methodology vindicated. Purely because UKIP supporters disproportionately tactically voted Tory out of fear of an SNP/Labour government.
(PS. I recognise that that's a bit of a circular argument - in the sense that one could argue ICM had the foresight to realise in its methodology that UKIP voters would always come home, in a way that other pollsters didn't - but I don't think that's correct because no-one knew just how likely a Lab/SNP backed government would look in the final month or two, nor how heavily and successfully the Tories would campaign on it)
Casino- I am so very pleased that you are back on an even keel. I feared very much for a pbCOM meltdown if another adverse poll had come along for your side.
Despite being generally a calm chap, I am often a nervous wreck during election campaigns.
It is slightly amusing how the Conservative posters disbelief opinion polls that show them in the lead, whilst Labour posters can feel the same when polls show them in the lead.
Meanwhile, neither are adverse to criticising their respective leaders when they're behind!
Dair Murphy led the SNP narrowly in East Renfrewshire in Ashcroft's March poll
It was a statistical tie and since then, national polling is showing improved SNP results. You can fairly safely expect the SNP to have a narrow lead by now. Locally, all they need to focus on is the danger of a Tory win to suck up enough of the remaining Labour vote.
It is a reasonable chance of Murphy coming a poor third.
The odds in Paisley and Renfrewshire South look 50 shades of wrong there too. High profile contest at any rate. But Dougie should not be odds on to hold his seat.
P&RS is, I think, an example of the market over-thinking the outcome. Punters are saying "can a 20 year old beat an old stager like Alexander". But voters won't necessarily think that way - ESPECIALLY not SNP voters, people with commitment.
I was thinking about this yesterday and realised - I don't know the name of my candidate in Glasgow Central. I've had the letter (as they have me on their "confirmed list") and won't get anything else. But I didn't read the letter, no interest in doing so, just binned it. Committed voters don't read the literature, it goes in the bin.
Most voters who vote Mhairi Black won't know she is 20. Those that do, probably won't care. The market is looking too closely at it, hence the odds on Dougie.
I'd have thought it'd make the SNP even more determined than ever there. I'll admit I took stake out on this seat but that was because Dougie was 6-4... and the SNP could have slipped back at that point etc etc... but it should be a 10-11 the pair seat at the most.
Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.
Two words: Stuart Truth
He was a man who was full of - excellent sounding - reasons why the polls were all wrong in the US. And he confidently forecast a Romney victory.
Calum/Pulpstar/Dair On present Scottish polls with Labour losing almost 3/4 of their seats of course it is at risk, but for the moment Murphy is not trailing. The poll was taken in March so little change, I would suggest most Tories would tactically vote for Murphy over the SNP
The polls were unchanged for six months between October and March. The Ashcroft was in late January/early February as it was in the first batch.
However those static polls have moved in the last week - towards a larger SNP margin.
After Marie Rimmer was given a post-election trial date, it was pretty clear the Coulson trial wouldn't proceed. One might think someone is pulling levers behind the scenes were you a wearer of a tin hat.
It's unlikely to have been a fix, Dair, and even if it was, it wouldn't worry me.
Whilst I'm all in favor of drawing attention to the links between Murdoch and the Chipping Norton crowd, I don't think it's sensible to have a trial with likely political implications taking place during an election.
It would distort the election picture artificially, and simply isn't fair to the defendant.
Do the voters of St Helens not deserve to know if their Labour PPC is a convicted thug? If the allegations are untrue, does Marie Rimmer not deserve to be standing without an alleged assault charge against her name?
Yes, but there are better times to hold the trial.
Casino's mobile phone rings... shows >>private number<<
Casino answers phone (could be boiler repair man calling)
*background noise* "Hello, is this Mr. Casino Royale?"
"Um. Who is this?"
"TRS. Is this Mr. Royale?"
"Who are TRS"
"A research company. Am I speaking to Mr. Royale?"
"Not interested, sorry. Goodbye."
*Casino hangs up*
She sounded a nice (but harassed) lass, who spoke very urgently. I used to politely explain I understood they were doing their jobs, but didn't want these calls, and for me to be taken off their database.
But I get these so often now, I find it hard not to be a bit firm and cut them off.
It is slightly amusing how the Conservative posters disbelief opinion polls that show them in the lead, whilst Labour posters can feel the same when polls show them in the lead.
Indeed :-)
However, a quick and dirty trendline makes it seem as if there's been no real change at all over the last month, just a bit of noise injected by the debates.
Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.
Don't be so stupid. It has nothing at all to do with their petty rules nor with your freedom of speech. You are free to go anywhere you like and accuse pollsters of rigging their polls against UKIP. And they are free to sue you for it if they feel like it. Just don't drag this site down with you.
I don't like what I am seeing in the UKIP numbers. I also don't think it is anything unexpected at all. The squeeze was always going to happen and at the moment, ICM excepted, it is exactly as I had thought it would be. Your claims of 50 seats showed an incredible naivety and lack of understanding of how hard it is to win seats as a 3rd or 4th party without an established base. I wold suggest that you stop giving your party a bad name and start realising that if we end up with 12% of the vote and 3 or 4 seats it will be a remarkable result - one that would have been all the more remarkable if you and some of the UKIP management hadn't played the expectations game so badly.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
South Ribble could be close as well. The other seats look pretty safe for the Conservatives (Dover, Cleethorpes, Great Yarmouth, MK South etc.)
Yarmouth is a frightful dung hole, but it is near me, I think it's becoming something of a three way with UKIP involved. But this time around I fancy them merely to ensure Labour lose enough support not to be able to take advantage of any swing nationally. Unconvincing Tory hold.
Ashcroft may plump for ones he hasn't yet redone in 2015 - I expect he'll plump for a mixture of marginality, as he did last week: Hendon, Sherwood, Amber Valley, Waveney, Carlisle, Stroud, Lincoln, Brighton Kempton, Bedford, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Hastings & Rye, Northampton North, Erewash, Keighley, Cannock Chase, and Great Yarmouth.
All possible, and would give a nice mix. He doesn't normally do more than 8-12 seats in one go, does he?
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
Funnily enough my last words to him (Cheerio of course!) occurred in the Gents at Norwich Playhouse. A passion for conveniences should not be inferred!
Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.
Don't be so stupid. It has nothing at all to do with their petty rules nor with your freedom of speech. You are free to go anywhere you like and accuse pollsters of rigging their polls against UKIP. And they are free to sue you for it if they feel like it. Just don't drag this site down with you.
I don't like what I am seeing in the UKIP numbers. I also don't think it is anything unexpected at all. The squeeze was always going to happen and at the moment, ICM excepted, it is exactly as I had thought it would be. Your claims of 50 seats showed an incredible naivety and lack of understanding of how hard it is to win seats as a 3rd or 4th party without an established base. I wold suggest that you stop giving your party a bad name and start realising that if we end up with 12% of the vote and 3 or 4 seats it will be a remarkable result - one that would have been all the more remarkable if you and some of the UKIP management hadn't played the expectations game so badly.
ICM excepted, UKIP have held up better than I expected.
The 'phone polls on average put us on c.11%, and the Conservatives on c. 35%, which is roughly what I expect on the day.
I told someone at work today that CON were certain to lose 10 minutes before ICM came out!
So long as you put in the word 'almost' before certain, you would still be right, though admittedly it might make them harder to convince after that poll.
If Con Hold Broxtowe then Labour cannot win If Labour lose then EICI not PM The only other possible winner is Con. Con HOLD Broxtowe Therefore Dave is PM
essentially, the fate of the nation rests with Nick Palmer of this parish.
If Con Hold Broxtowe then Labour cannot win If Labour lose then EICI not PM The only other possible winner is Con. Con HOLD Broxtowe Therefore Dave is PM
essentially, the fate of the nation rests with Nick Palmer of this parish.
Yes, if Con hold Broxtowe Labour certainly will not win.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Steady on Jack. Is that anyway to reveal the secrets of how you get your ARSE tuned up for 0900?
Ruddles County and Chicken Jalfresi?!?
And it looks like Lord Q is trying to get in before you, dashed bad form!
Every time I write and cast my doubts about polls and pollsters authenticity, I get my words scrubbed out by the Smithsons. I know that it's their blog, and any word against pollsters is anathema to them, but freedom of speech is precious to me.
They may conduct their blog how they like, but I have had enough of it's ridiculous petty rules.
Don't be so stupid. It has nothing at all to do with their petty rules nor with your freedom of speech. You are free to go anywhere you like and accuse pollsters of rigging their polls against UKIP. And they are free to sue you for it if they feel like it. Just don't drag this site down with you.
I don't like what I am seeing in the UKIP numbers. I also don't think it is anything unexpected at all. The squeeze was always going to happen and at the moment, ICM excepted, it is exactly as I had thought it would be. Your claims of 50 seats showed an incredible naivety and lack of understanding of how hard it is to win seats as a 3rd or 4th party without an established base. I wold suggest that you stop giving your party a bad name and start realising that if we end up with 12% of the vote and 3 or 4 seats it will be a remarkable result - one that would have been all the more remarkable if you and some of the UKIP management hadn't played the expectations game so badly.
you missed his reports of hearing over 100 seats was possible then?
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
Holding a dinner in the gents certainly has novelty value.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
Funnily enough my last words to him (Cheerio of course!) occurred in the Gents at Norwich Playhouse. A passion for conveniences should not be inferred!
Swarms of Labour posters went up here in Norwich South about ten days ago. Now matched by an equal number of Green posters that went up over the weekend. Very few for Simon Wright MP who looks set to finish 4th.
"And with this manifesto, I seek to follow in the footsteps of the Labour Prime Ministers who have built the great institutions of our country.
All of them called time on the old way of doing things. In 1945, Clement Attlee called time on the dark days of the depression. In 1964, Harold Wilson beckoned in the white heat of the scientific revolution. In 1997, Tony Blair called time on a decaying public realm and said that our hospitals, our schools, and all our public services could once again be the best in the world. " Ed Miliband
Oh dear, what did Jim Callaghan and Gordon Brown do to upset him
before deciding. Personally, looking at the averages of all the polls by company, there is a clear pattern of "nothing's changed" with MoE movements (and the odd blip due to methodological error). You're interpretation may vary.
Based on my interpretation, an all time best Yougov followed immediately by an all time best ICM makes me reasonably confidence in what I said before - there is a small movement for the first time and for SLAB, it's in the wrong direction.
"Do the voters of St Helens not deserve to know if their Labour PPC is a convicted thug?"
Why? It won't make any difference. This is where the voters elected Shaun Woodward and butler when he was parachuted in. She's actually a local and despite being 67 years old will win easily.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
Holding a dinner in the gents certainly has novelty value.
You do have a point there.
The Olivier Theatre was used for about 750 guests. An excellent evening that raised loads of money for charity.
So I was watching the Clegg interview about 15 minutes delayed. He is pretty confident and assured given the personal and political battering he has been on the receiving end of these past 5 years, and seeing his responses I am reminded that like these leaders or not, and however one might disagree with their politics, they are genuinely pretty quick on their feet with impressive recall abilities, for what it's worth.
What struck me was how little he talked about Labour during his answers. You'd be forgiven for thinking they barely existed.
The other thing that struck me was it seemed like Davis' trousers were too short. My imagination?
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Steady on Jack. Is that anyway to reveal the secrets of how you get your ARSE tuned up for 0900?
Ruddles County and Chicken Jalfresi?!?
And it looks like Lord Q is trying to get in before you, dashed bad form!
Ruddles County and chicken madras - I like things strong, hot and spicy as Mrs JackW would attest.
Swarms of Labour posters went up here in Norwich South about ten days ago. Now matched by an equal number of Green posters that went up over the weekend. Very few for Simon Wright MP who looks set to finish 4th.
Someone should do a market on the number of incumbents who finish 3rd or worse.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
Funnily enough my last words to him (Cheerio of course!) occurred in the Gents at Norwich Playhouse. A passion for conveniences should not be inferred!
Swarms of Labour posters went up here in Norwich South about ten days ago. Now matched by an equal number of Green posters that went up over the weekend. Very few for Simon Wright MP who looks set to finish 4th.
Wright will finish fourth or fifth, UKIP and the Cons should also beat him. I was carousing in the Golden Triangle Friday night and noted the Red and Green decoration. Greens have an impressive array along the student properties of Dereham and Earlham roads. The young rental households of the GT connector streets are strongly Lab. one orange diamond noted.
Fascinating battle, as is Norwich North where I predict Jess is going to hand Chloe Smith her arse on a plate.
BTW, whatever happened the English Parliament or the more silly "Grand Committee" idea?
Well its heading to an English Parliament, and I hate the idea. A tory majority would give us EVEL as starters, but if thats undermined we are heading for an English Parliament. What I would not settle for is 6 or 7 parliaments in England. This is where EVEL is an initial safer bet.
I could cope with an English Parliament. Everyone else has one, so why not us as well? However, I agree about the regional assemblies - they are not a good idea.
What upsets me is the cost and an unnecessary extra layer of govt - mostly spending money raised outside their control. There will be objections for an English Parliament in the UK as it will be said it would be too big in relation to the others. Regional Parliaments would balkanise the UK and take away its identity. 'Assemblies' are even worse. England is a nation and should not be broken up on the whim of the SNP. It is for this reason that Labour deserve to be wiped out in Scotland. They created a cackhanded devolution and created this mess. If EVEL fails then we may be headed for an English parliament but there are dangers according to how it is set up.
Where in the SNP prospectus (etc.) does it express any interest in English internal government, pray?
(And NHS changes with consequences for Scotland don't count for this purpose.)
What did Clegg actually say in that Leader interview ?
Did anyone notice ?
Did anyone care ?!
He speaks Dutch.
He defended the coalition.
I didn't watch it, I admit, as I needed to cut my nails. But I reckon he speaks Dutch.
Was it Double Dutch though ?
Oh .... if you'd have been watching at Auchentennach Castle we offer a toe nail pulling out service free of charge for yellow perilists and their scions.
"Do the voters of St Helens not deserve to know if their Labour PPC is a convicted thug?"
Why? It won't make any difference. This is where the voters elected Shaun Woodward and butler when he was parachuted in. She's actually a local and despite being 67 years old will win easily.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
He once helped the Good Lady Wifi to park into a tight space.
Dair In Feb the SNP had a 48% with yougov, a 47% with Survation, in March's Survation they were on 47%, 46% with yougov, 49% in 9th April's yougov, even a 1% gain since Feb would only draw the SNP level with Murphy. The big change was October when the SNP went from the thirties to the forty percents
What did Clegg actually say in that Leader interview ?
Did anyone notice ?
Did anyone care ?!
He speaks Dutch.
He defended the coalition.
I didn't watch it, I admit, as I needed to cut my nails. But I reckon he speaks Dutch.
Given his mother was Dutch I am not sure anyone should be surprised at that. They might be ever so shocked to find out that Farage's wife spoke German!!!
Last week, the good Lord spread his bounty across the regions.
So, how's about:
London: Ealing Central and Acton South East: Hastings and Rye SW: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport East: Thurrock (or Yarmouth) E Midlands: Amber Valley W Midlands: Cannock Chase Wales: Brecon and radnorshire Y+H: Great Grimsby NW: Cheadle NE: Berwick Upon tweed
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
He once helped the Good Lady Wifi to park into a tight space.
He must have had the patience of a saint.....
He did listen patiently to my history of the kingdom of East Anglia and the origins of Bury St Edmunds. Most of which I made up (I think he also appreciated that, too)
What did Clegg actually say in that Leader interview ?
Did anyone notice ?
Did anyone care ?!
He speaks Dutch.
He defended the coalition.
I didn't watch it, I admit, as I needed to cut my nails. But I reckon he speaks Dutch.
Given his mother was Dutch I am not sure anyone should be surprised at that. They might be ever so shocked to find out that Farage's wife spoke German!!!
She probably still speaks German, though of course not while der Fuhrer is around.
Last week, the good Lord spread his bounty across the regions.
So, how's about:
London: Ealing Central and Acton South East: Hastings and Rye SW: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport East: Thurrock (or Yarmouth) E Midlands: Amber Valley W Midlands: Cannock Chase Wales: Brecon and radnorshire Y+H: Great Grimsby NW: Cheadle NE: Berwick Upon tweed
Granted, as a short man with a fluctuating waistline, it's hard to find off the peg trousers which fit the waist without being too long in the leg anyway, so my unadoption of the fashion is not entirely down to choice.
"Will the @LordAshcroft phone poll, due at 4pm support ICM? They broadly similar approaches and ICM often carries out the Lord A fieldwork" (M Smithson tweet)
Can anyone who knows the answer confirm/deny the extraordinary (to me) implication of this that Lord A is using more than one company for the Monday polls, but presenting those polls as a series?
I'm with you on this. I suspect the likely suggested answer is libellous so no one anywhere mentions it.
Answer please from somebody? Does Lord A know what a house effect is or doesn't he, or does he not care?
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Steady on Jack. Is that anyway to reveal the secrets of how you get your ARSE tuned up for 0900?
Ruddles County and Chicken Jalfresi?!?
And it looks like Lord Q is trying to get in before you, dashed bad form!
Ruddles County and chicken madras - I like things strong, hot and spicy as Mrs JackW would attest.
May I commend to your combutibles the next time your valet and cook pop to the shops that they look out for the fine products of the Grainstore brewery in Oakham. In many ways very reminiscent of the fine products of Ruddles when it was an independent brewery.
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
Steady on Jack. Is that anyway to reveal the secrets of how you get your ARSE tuned up for 0900?
Ruddles County and Chicken Jalfresi?!?
And it looks like Lord Q is trying to get in before you, dashed bad form!
Ruddles County and chicken madras - I like things strong, hot and spicy as Mrs JackW would attest.
May I commend to your combutibles the next time your valet and cook pop to the shops that they look out for the fine products of the Grainstore brewery in Oakham. In many ways very reminiscent of the fine products of Ruddles when it was an independent brewery.
It was a sad day when Ruddles left Rutland, fortunately their fine "County" ale remains a corker. I've sampled the Grainstore products and they comfortably passed the "JackW Cellar Test".
Strange how BBC seems rather uninterested in IFS musings. Peston's summary only produces positives from IFS analysis....telling us all that it would be far better to balance it later rather than sooner.
"And the IFS says that if it were balanced in 2017-18 - which is when the Tories and Lib Dems are committed to balance it - Labour would need to make £18bn of cuts. But that would fall to £6bn of cuts, if balance was deferred to 2018-19, and zero cuts if balance was postponed till the last year of the next parliament."
The Labour manifesto appears to have completely vanished from the Guardian's front page within ten hours of announcement. That bad?
That good. If nobody comments, job done. There are no good news stories in this election. There are only attacks to divert the banal uniformity of cyncial and hostile media attention onto the other crowd(s).
Clegg first up on "The "Leader Interviews" on BBC1 at 7:30pm tonight.
30 minutes to edge the yellow peril into double figures.
Carry on with the plonk otherwise 30 minutes of unadulterated Cleggy will leave you comatose until polling day.
I should do my PB duty and watch the Cleggmeister .... but I'm comfortably ensconced in my library with a few bottles of Ruddles watching the Test match having gotten through a sublime curry.
Think the "Good Life" episode where Jerry is similarly content before the abrupt arrival of Margo puts an end to the guilty pleasure ....
Fortunately Mrs JackW is away ....
I had the pleasure of getting ridiculously drunk with Richard Briers one evening in Norwich. A very fine fellow with an interest in telling daft anecdotes and hearing tidbits of local history he was.
Last time I saw him was in the gents at a charity dinner at the national theatre.
Funnily enough my last words to him (Cheerio of course!) occurred in the Gents at Norwich Playhouse. A passion for conveniences should not be inferred!
Swarms of Labour posters went up here in Norwich South about ten days ago. Now matched by an equal number of Green posters that went up over the weekend. Very few for Simon Wright MP who looks set to finish 4th.
Wright will finish fourth or fifth, UKIP and the Cons should also beat him. I was carousing in the Golden Triangle Friday night and noted the Red and Green decoration. Greens have an impressive array along the student properties of Dereham and Earlham roads. The young rental households of the GT connector streets are strongly Lab. one orange diamond noted.
Fascinating battle, as is Norwich North where I predict Jess is going to hand Chloe Smith her arse on a plate.
I beg to differ, new builds in the northern suburbs mean demographics trending Tory. Chloe to win by a thousand.
Comments
Can anyone who knows the answer confirm/deny the extraordinary (to me) implication of this that Lord A is using more than one company for the Monday polls, but presenting those polls as a series?
I suspect the likely suggested answer is libellous so no one anywhere mentions it.
I was thinking about this yesterday and realised - I don't know the name of my candidate in Glasgow Central. I've had the letter (as they have me on their "confirmed list") and won't get anything else. But I didn't read the letter, no interest in doing so, just binned it. Committed voters don't read the literature, it goes in the bin.
Most voters who vote Mhairi Black won't know she is 20. Those that do, probably won't care. The market is looking too closely at it, hence the odds on Dougie.
Incredible!!
All over the place!!!
And that is just Ave it's postings!!!!
What will the next Ave it #GE2015 projection say?!?!?!
Nick fighting an old war here. Thatcher, Blair, Major ?!
This is supposed to be about the next election, not the political history of the last 30 years.
Perhaps due to its wider scope of political fallout and lack of a PPC as Defender, the Coulson delay is understandable. But Rimmer never should have been given a delay.
It is slightly amusing how the Conservative posters disbelief opinion polls that show them in the lead, whilst Labour posters can feel the same when polls show them in the lead.
Meanwhile, neither are adverse to criticising their respective leaders when they're behind!
He was a man who was full of - excellent sounding - reasons why the polls were all wrong in the US. And he confidently forecast a Romney victory.
Where is Stuart Truth, by the way?
However those static polls have moved in the last week - towards a larger SNP margin.
I saw someone from Rossendale and Darwen get polled on Twitter, so looks like he is going further down the list.
More polls !
Is this another Boolean black hole? I only ask since Booleans are an alien race to me.
Casino's mobile phone rings... shows >>private number<<
Casino answers phone (could be boiler repair man calling)
*background noise* "Hello, is this Mr. Casino Royale?"
"Um. Who is this?"
"TRS. Is this Mr. Royale?"
"Who are TRS"
"A research company. Am I speaking to Mr. Royale?"
"Not interested, sorry. Goodbye."
*Casino hangs up*
She sounded a nice (but harassed) lass, who spoke very urgently. I used to politely explain I understood they were doing their jobs, but didn't want these calls, and for me to be taken off their database.
But I get these so often now, I find it hard not to be a bit firm and cut them off.
However, a quick and dirty trendline makes it seem as if there's been no real change at all over the last month, just a bit of noise injected by the debates.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/east-renfrewshire/
I don't like what I am seeing in the UKIP numbers. I also don't think it is anything unexpected at all. The squeeze was always going to happen and at the moment, ICM excepted, it is exactly as I had thought it would be. Your claims of 50 seats showed an incredible naivety and lack of understanding of how hard it is to win seats as a 3rd or 4th party without an established base. I wold suggest that you stop giving your party a bad name and start realising that if we end up with 12% of the vote and 3 or 4 seats it will be a remarkable result - one that would have been all the more remarkable if you and some of the UKIP management hadn't played the expectations game so badly.
A missed opportunity IMO.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/
South Ribble could be close as well. The other seats look pretty safe for the Conservatives (Dover, Cleethorpes, Great Yarmouth, MK South etc.)
Did anyone notice ?
Did anyone care ?!
If you look at this bbc link, then there's a very half-hearted reception at the end.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32279977
So, a question. Are there any PBers that would stand up and be counted alongside Ed Milliband?
It was published March 4th.
Fieldwork was February.
Unconvincing Tory hold.
All possible, and would give a nice mix. He doesn't normally do more than 8-12 seats in one go, does he?
ARSE @ 9:00am
Nick Palmer at A&E @ 10am
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-voting-intention-2
The 'phone polls on average put us on c.11%, and the Conservatives on c. 35%, which is roughly what I expect on the day.
If Con Hold Broxtowe then Labour cannot win
If Labour lose then EICI not PM
The only other possible winner is Con.
Con HOLD Broxtowe
Therefore
Dave is PM
essentially, the fate of the nation rests with Nick Palmer of this parish.
Ruddles County and Chicken Jalfresi?!?
And it looks like Lord Q is trying to get in before you, dashed bad form!
All of them called time on the old way of doing things. In 1945, Clement Attlee called time on the dark days of the depression. In 1964, Harold Wilson beckoned in the white heat of the scientific revolution. In 1997, Tony Blair called time on a decaying public realm and said that our hospitals, our schools, and all our public services could once again be the best in the world. " Ed Miliband
Oh dear, what did Jim Callaghan and Gordon Brown do to upset him
He defended the coalition.
I didn't watch it, I admit, as I needed to cut my nails. But I reckon he speaks Dutch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland
before deciding. Personally, looking at the averages of all the polls by company, there is a clear pattern of "nothing's changed" with MoE movements (and the odd blip due to methodological error). You're interpretation may vary.
Based on my interpretation, an all time best Yougov followed immediately by an all time best ICM makes me reasonably confidence in what I said before - there is a small movement for the first time and for SLAB, it's in the wrong direction.
"Do the voters of St Helens not deserve to know if their Labour PPC is a convicted thug?"
Why? It won't make any difference. This is where the voters elected Shaun Woodward and butler when he was parachuted in. She's actually a local and despite being 67 years old will win easily.
The Olivier Theatre was used for about 750 guests. An excellent evening that raised loads of money for charity.
What struck me was how little he talked about Labour during his answers. You'd be forgiven for thinking they barely existed.
The other thing that struck me was it seemed like Davis' trousers were too short. My imagination?
I was carousing in the Golden Triangle Friday night and noted the Red and Green decoration. Greens have an impressive array along the student properties of Dereham and Earlham roads. The young rental households of the GT connector streets are strongly Lab. one orange diamond noted.
Fascinating battle, as is Norwich North where I predict Jess is going to hand Chloe Smith her arse on a plate.
(And NHS changes with consequences for Scotland don't count for this purpose.)
Oh .... if you'd have been watching at Auchentennach Castle we offer a toe nail pulling out service free of charge for yellow perilists and their scions.
He must have had the patience of a saint.....
So, how's about:
London: Ealing Central and Acton
South East: Hastings and Rye
SW: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
East: Thurrock (or Yarmouth)
E Midlands: Amber Valley
W Midlands: Cannock Chase
Wales: Brecon and radnorshire
Y+H: Great Grimsby
NW: Cheadle
NE: Berwick Upon tweed
ELBOW'ing today's four polls (YG, Populus, ICM, Ashcroft) =
Labour lead of 0.3%
0.3%
750 minutes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32161578
How is that possible with two ties and one ginormous Tory lead?
Abandoning Scotland and focussing on England was wonderful to see.
Don't forget the 3% Lab lead in YG!
Actually I get the following subtotals
Lab 1340
Con 1328
UKIP 502
LD 301
Grn 215
Total sample 3908
Hancock will lose his deposit, Labour and UKIP scrapping for third and fourth.
Granted, as a short man with a fluctuating waistline, it's hard to find off the peg trousers which fit the waist without being too long in the leg anyway, so my unadoption of the fashion is not entirely down to choice.
@BBCNewsnight: Tonight's Newsnight Hanretty index: Tories 284 seats (up 3) Labour 276 seats (down 1) and Libdems on 25 (down 3) http://t.co/dtWzY1yRjJ
Strange how BBC seems rather uninterested in IFS musings. Peston's summary only produces positives from IFS analysis....telling us all that it would be far better to balance it later rather than sooner.
"And the IFS says that if it were balanced in 2017-18 - which is when the Tories and Lib Dems are committed to balance it - Labour would need to make £18bn of cuts.
But that would fall to £6bn of cuts, if balance was deferred to 2018-19, and zero cuts if balance was postponed till the last year of the next parliament."
Odd that.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/milibands-pledge-i-will-really-try-not-to-completely-fk-britain-2015041397294
I beg to differ, new builds in the northern suburbs mean demographics trending Tory. Chloe to win by a thousand.