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System Posts: 12,578
edited June 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will a struggling North West cost Cameron the election?

Many ask if ‘the UK economy’ will recover before the general election? One thing that’s struck me in recent weeks is how different parts of the country are already faring quite differently to each other. As a result there is the growing chance that areas like London and the South East pick up by 2015 but that they leave behind large parts of the North and Midlands.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    No
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Yes, but due to differential turnout and smaller constituency sizes favouring Labour.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Really good perspective here from Henry, as usual.

    I can see how a swing voter here might get annoyed at Osborne trumpeting recovery when things are little changed in this region.

    Osborne has the card of tax cuts to play, however.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Clearly being in a Labour voting area has a negative impact on property prices. Home owners would do well to avoid voting Labour if they wish to see the value of their houses increase.
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Great article as always, Henry.

    Meanwhile, a pictorial depiction of the astonishment William Hague gets wherever he goes about the decision of the Gambia to move on from London rule -

    https://twitter.com/bigbuachaille/status/348064929967915008/photo/1
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited June 2013
    Maybe the voters in that region should just take a good look at their environment locally and see what a good job Labour has done for them in the last fifty years or so, not to mention the cover up of babies and their mums being killed in a local Hospital
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Maybe the voters in that region should just take a good look at their environment locally and see what a good job Labour has done for them in the fifty years or so"

    The Tories have been in power for 26 of those 50 years.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    How much does Dave have to lose in the NW? I thught it was very heavily Labour already. Isn't it the middle England swing seats that count? Dave's never going to win Liverpool or MAnchester etc.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Patrick said:

    How much does Dave have to lose in the NW? I thught it was very heavily Labour already. Isn't it the middle England swing seats that count? Dave's never going to win Liverpool or MAnchester etc.

    I'd have thought Kippers were Labour's biggest problem in the NW - if you're still a Tory there, you're as hardcore a supporter as anywhere or someone who lives in the NW equiv of rural Sussex.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Good point Henry - and while the Conservatives may struggle, not sure how Labour's 'One Nation' necessarily 'chimes more' - for starters, what is it?

    We also know that Labour are struggling more with C2DE than among the ABs. We're still a very long way from May 2015.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited June 2013
    JK..The Tories have been in power for 25 of thos 50 years..
    Were all of the MP's and local councils controlled by the tories for 25 0f those years, I rather though the area was solid Labour
  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    If I had a 14 year old daughter, and she was kissed by her male teacher in her classroom, then he'd be grateful he lived to stand trial, and at least in prison, he'd be safe from me.
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Were all of the MP's and local councils controlled by the tories for 25 0f those years, I rather though the area was solid Labour"

    What difference does it make if the MPs of a region are "controlled" by Labour? Tory governments don't devolve power to a Northwest Grand Committee.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good point Henry - and while the Conservatives may struggle, not sure how Labour's 'One Nation' necessarily 'chimes more' - for starters, what is it?

    We also know that Labour are struggling more with C2DE than among the ABs. We're still a very long way from May 2015.

    Fraser wrote a piece that I don't quite agree with re the Tories pitching for Old Labour votes - I can't really see that myself but it'd be interesting to see how the switchers moved the last time this happened under Mrs T. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10132323/The-Tories-are-fighting-for-the-people-Labour-has-abandoned.html

    "Mr Twigg’s point about satisfying “surplus places” rather than parents baffles Jo Morey, whose son is at Bedford Free School. “There’s no point in surplus places if none is good enough for your child,” she told me yesterday. What does Labour offer voters like her?

    Every party needs to explain the sort of people they stand for. The Tories now have mothers like Jo Morey, young teachers like Mark Lehain and people helped back to work like Michael Shearsby and Peter O’Hanlon. Whether or not the affection is reciprocated, a new Tory target constituency is emerging.

    All this has raised the stakes for the next general election. It won’t be the rich who have most to lose from a Miliband

    victory: they can always buy their way out of whatever problems government throws in their way. The losers will be parents who want a better school, but can’t afford to move closer to one. Or the unemployed, who might be judged beyond help.

    Every time Mr Miliband offers more definition for the Labour Party, the clearer it becomes that Labour has pretty much given up on the working class. There is a huge opportunity here, should the Tories have the wit to take it."
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Well, whodathunkit?

    "Gay cure' Christian ministry shuts down as leader apologises and admits he's attracted to men."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/gay-cure-christian-ministry-shuts-down-as-leader-apologises-and-admits-hes-attracted-to-men-8668299.html

    Dear God, please may a 'Traditional Marriage Tory' be caught in St James Park....
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    If you have an area controlled by Labour MP's and Labour councils for 50% of fifty years should there not be a gradual improvement in their local environment..Labour Mp's,Labour Councils, Labour in power at Westminster., what was to stop them..something certainly did.
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited June 2013
    "As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend."

    I don't think there's any problem with a 22 year old man having a 17 year old schoolgirl girlfriend. A 30 year old teacher and his 15 year old pupil is a different matter entirely.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    There is a huge opportunity here, should the Tories have the wit to take it."

    Agreed. Its the same with the NHS. Hunt has stunned labour by fighting for the user over the provider, but within the framework of free at the point of use. What is the labour response?

    There isn't one.
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "If you have an area controlled by Labour MP's and Labour councils for 50% of fifty years should there not be a gradual improvement in their local environment"

    Mr Dodd, please get this through your head - outside the devolved nations, there is no way that Labour MPs can "control an area". Either Labour control the UK government, or they don't. If they don't, then the northwest is ruled by Tories just like everywhere else, and the Tories are the culprits if something goes wrong.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    JamesKelly said:

    "As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend."

    I don't think there's any problem with a 22 year old man having a 17 year old schoolgirl girlfriend. A 30 year old teacher and his 15 year old pupil is a different matter entirely.


    I suppose in the very few cases where a 22year old is teaching a 17 year old it would be less of a big deal, but the chances of it happening must be incredibly small...how many qualified teachers at 22 start their careers teaching sixth formers?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    The Tories won the most votes in Morecambe and South Ribble in the local elections. Labour won the most votes in Lancaster, Pendle and Carlisle:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E#gid=0
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

    I'm of the opinion that 15yrs old girls who choose to have a sexual relationship with one person who is considerably older without coercion is borderline. If she was a few months older - it wouldn't be an issue legally which is what it boils down to.

    Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.

    Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.
  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    tim said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.


    Don't you just love the description of the teacher and the 15 year old as "the couple"?
    Mind boggling.
    It's barmy. Forrest is nothing more than a sexual predator who likes young girls, and used his position as her teacher to get what he wanted from her. There is nothing, absolutely nothing good to say about him.

  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    OT, Howard Dean may run again for 2016:
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/howard-dean-considers-launching-another-presidential-bid

    Deep thought from John Ekdahl recently:
    I do wonder how many Republicans realize they got beat by Howard Dean, not really Obama.
    https://twitter.com/JohnEkdahl/status/343255588110745600
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    tim said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.


    Don't you just love the description of the teacher and the 15 year old as "the couple"?
    Mind boggling.
    It's like crime in multi storey car parks.... Wrong on so many different levels

    What must this blokes mates be saying to him? She is a child in his care...

    Wrongun, deserves all he gets.
  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Plato said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

    I'm of the opinion that 15yrs old girls who choose to have a sexual relationship with one person who is considerably older without coercion is borderline. If she was a few months older - it wouldn't be an issue legally which is what it boils down to.

    Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.

    Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.
    I wouldn't want any teacher who fancies young girls anywhere near a school. If Ihad a daughter, and there was a sniff that her teacher fancied her. He'd be getting a visit from the Doc Martin twins.

  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    JK..Your argument appears to be that if the Tories are in power in Westminster it nullifies the power of the local Labour MP's, Labour councils , but if the Labour party is in power at Westminster then the local Politicians still have no power,and all the problems of the area are the fault of the Conservatives.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Latest Bundestag poll puts the two main blocs level on 46%:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

    CDU/CSU: 41%
    SPD: 25%
    Green: 14%
    Linke: 7%
    FDP: 5%
    Others: 8%
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited June 2013
    @tim

    To put it slightly differently, section 16 of the Sexual Offences Act 2003 does not engage issues of consent.

    Part of the section is given over to the position of trust - which is not in question - which leaves the key provisions for this case:

    A person aged 18 or over (A) commits an offence if
    (a) he intentionally touches another person (B)
    (b) the touching is sexual
    (c) B is under 18 and A does not reasonably believe that B is 18 or over.

    The relevant age being 18 and not 16, although not relevant here, was certainly a deliberate decision by lawmakers that could be challenged.
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    the sentence seems ok to slightly harsh to me - its got totake into account he was a teacher and also he took her off to France (?) when her parents had no idea where she was (?). On the other hand I have statred in horror at some very lenient sentences given down for more abusive behaviour
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Plato said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

    I'm of the opinion that 15yrs old girls who choose to have a sexual relationship with one person who is considerably older without coercion is borderline. If she was a few months older - it wouldn't be an issue legally which is what it boils down to.

    Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.

    Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.

    Last year when i was 37 I went out with a 25 yr old for a few months and even that felt uncomfortable.

    The fact that he is her teacher makes it about 100 times worse than if he had met her in a bar or something. I think that abuse of power is what makes it so much worse for this bloke.

    As for Hall, yes I'm surprised he didn't get longer in jail. What he did is a kind of mental illness I would think
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Latest Bundestag poll puts the two main blocs level on 46%"

    Not really, because Linke aren't part of the centre-left bloc, so that's a 46%-39% lead for the centre-right bloc. There has been the odd poll like that before, so we'll have to see if it's just an outlier. The SPD do seem to be polling lower in recent weeks, though. A lot will depend on whether the FDP make the threshold - as you know, I don't share your view that they are likely to benefit to any great extent from CDU tactical switchers.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    She is a child in his care...

    Indeed. You surely have to go into teaching with the view that anybody, but anybody in your care is off limits, no matter how much you like them and they like you.

  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    FPT

    tim said:

    » show previous quotes
    How can someone under the age of consent give consent?

    @tim.

    In strict legal terms they cannot consent legally, but in human terms they can consent or else it would be rape. Anyway if the police and prosecutors are so keen on prosecuting the male in a case of sex with a female who is under the age of consent, then are we to expect a queue of cases at the magistrates courts for the males who were responsible for all girls who conceived under the age of 16 - somehow I think not!

  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    The Judges sentencing remarks:

    ""An inspiring teacher can lift children to levels neither they nor their parents could have dreamt. You chose to ignore the cardinal rule of teaching.

    "Time and time again your colleagues warned and advised you and offered support. You lied to them about the nature of your relationship.

    "You complained that the rumours circulating were lies by the girl."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-23005747
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    Plato said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

    I'm of the opinion that 15yrs old girls who choose to have a sexual relationship with one person who is considerably older without coercion is borderline. If she was a few months older - it wouldn't be an issue legally which is what it boils down to.

    Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.

    Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.
    I wouldn't want any teacher who fancies young girls anywhere near a school. If Ihad a daughter, and there was a sniff that her teacher fancied her. He'd be getting a visit from the Doc Martin twins.

    I do love PB when we get an issue that doesn't split down party lines - we had it over super-injunctions/Leveson last year and its really interesting to read a wide range of views that explores the more *visceral* end of politics that are about emotional responses.

    I think he was a silly berk, feel very sorry for his wife who must be totally humiliated by the whole saga and for the pair of them who are caught up in this nightmare. They should have waited.
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    TONY Abbott and several key independents, including the Greens, would not stand in the way of a Kevin Rudd comeback - with the Opposition Leader ruling out sponsoring a no-confidence motion in the government if the Labor leadership changes next week.

    The refusal by the Coalition to be dragged into the government's leadership crisis has crippled a key argument being used by Julia Gillard's camp to keep MPs loyal to her - that a change could spark a constitutional crisis.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/labor-leadership-hurdle-gone-kevin-rudd-has-the-all-clear/story-fnii5s3x-1226667837843#ixzz2WrJ6VKUs

    That's odd that the opposition would be clearing a path for the more popular Rudd -surely they're shooting themselves in the foot there?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Oh look a map of some of the constituencies with the least number of voters in them..

  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Plato said:

    TwistedFireStopper said:

    Plato said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

    I'm of the opinion that 15yrs old girls who choose to have a sexual relationship with one person who is considerably older without coercion is borderline. If she was a few months older - it wouldn't be an issue legally which is what it boils down to.

    Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.

    Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.
    I wouldn't want any teacher who fancies young girls anywhere near a school. If Ihad a daughter, and there was a sniff that her teacher fancied her. He'd be getting a visit from the Doc Martin twins.

    I do love PB when we get an issue that doesn't split down party lines - we had it over super-injunctions/Leveson last year and its really interesting to read a wide range of views that explores the more *visceral* end of politics that are about emotional responses.

    I think he was a silly berk, feel very sorry for his wife who must be totally humiliated by the whole saga and for the pair of them who are caught up in this nightmare. They should have waited.
    We'll have to disagree, Plato. He shouldn't have been anywhere near a school.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The general "rule" for age gap is that the persons age should be more than half your own age plus 7.

    Which this teacher fails - I guess he could retrain as a priest in jail ?

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    He should be out by Christmas 2016. Maybe the young lady in question could write a novel about her escapades ?
    Anyway I hope she manages to make a shedload of cash out of it all. Best of luck to her !
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited June 2013
    taffys said:

    You surely have to go into teaching with the view that anybody, but anybody in your care is off limits, no matter how much you like them and they like you

    Absolutely. It would still have been wrong if she had been 16.

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    They should have waited.

    Nah its still wrong....Imagine she turns sixteen and it goes public. It's bound to disrupt the learning environment in the school.

    Its just not fair on the other pupils and teachers. It wouldn;t be fair if she was 18....
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    I'm having trouble confirming my belief that flavours of cigarettes other than menthol were already banned for sale in the UK. Could anyone help me out with a link (or reject my hypothesis)?
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Can AndyJS tell us which of the marginals Henry mentions in his header saw Labour majorities in the local elections (where there were elections)?

    Isnt Rossendale and Darwen the seat Will Straw is going for?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Throughout most of human history, a 30 year old man having sexual relations with a 15 year old girl would have been nothing out of the ordinary. In fact it still is normal in a lot of countries like Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, etc.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    CarlottaVance said:

    Absolutely. It would still have been wrong if she had been 16.

    It would still have been illegal if she was 16.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    The reaction to the Forrest sentencing is pretty WTF?! The Times is largely WTF - the Mail readers are really WTF?!!! which may be surprising for those who assume one can guess which way an audience will swing.

    The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    The age of consent is there for a reason. I can't see why anyone would think a teacher abusing his position of power and responsibilty to have a sexual relationship with a pupil aged under 16 should deserve any sympathy.

    As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.

    I'm of the opinion that 15yrs old girls who choose to have a sexual relationship with one person who is considerably older without coercion is borderline. If she was a few months older - it wouldn't be an issue legally which is what it boils down to.

    Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.

    Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.

    Last year when i was 37 I went out with a 25 yr old for a few months and even that felt uncomfortable.

    The fact that he is her teacher makes it about 100 times worse than if he had met her in a bar or something. I think that abuse of power is what makes it so much worse for this bloke.

    As for Hall, yes I'm surprised he didn't get longer in jail. What he did is a kind of mental illness I would think
    I was 36yrs when I went out with a 25yr old who adored me - I just couldn't do it - two dates were two too many. I felt on a pedestal and responsible and flattered and uncomfortable all in one. I assume there is some sound anthropological reasoning for this reaction.

    I never understood the attention given to Toy Boy stories until I had a brief glimpse of it myself - I just can't imagine it myself - ever.
  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    tim said:

    @Firestopper.

    Check out the saving of this toddler by a group of Chinese postal workers

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-06-21/postmen-break-toddlers-tumble-from-fifth-floor-window/

    That's good work.
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    its a good job they were not Australian cricketers Tim!!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Throughout most of human history, a 30 year old man having sexual relations with a 15 year old girl would have been nothing out of the ordinary. In fact it still is normal in a lot of countries like Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, etc.

    Still is the norm in Rochdale, Rotherham and some other places 'op north isn't it ? Though that might be stretching the word 'relationship' a bit far.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Liberton

    LD votes redistributed. Tories eliminated now. Situation as follow

    Labour 3255
    SNP 2523

    Now redistributing Con votes
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Throughout most of human history, a 30 year old man having sexual relations with a 15 year old girl would have been nothing out of the ordinary."

    But you have to factor in the teacher/position of trust element. If it wasn't for that, I might agree the sentence was a bit harsh.
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    tim said:

    Financier said:

    FPT

    tim said:

    » show previous quotes
    How can someone under the age of consent give consent?

    @tim.

    In strict legal terms they cannot consent legally, but in human terms they can consent or else it would be rape. Anyway if the police and prosecutors are so keen on prosecuting the male in a case of sex with a female who is under the age of consent, then are we to expect a queue of cases at the magistrates courts for the males who were responsible for all girls who conceived under the age of 16 - somehow I think not!

    You know what, you've posted some stupid things on here, most of which can be classified as unintentionally hilarious, but on this one you're just too f*cking stupid to bother replying to. I'll leave it to some of the others.

    As usual tim, when you lose an argument, you resort to abuse and bad language. Why not crawl back under your stone or even better, get a job.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    JamesKelly said:

    "Throughout most of human history, a 30 year old man having sexual relations with a 15 year old girl would have been nothing out of the ordinary."

    But you have to factor in the teacher/position of trust element. If it wasn't for that, I might agree the sentence was a bit harsh.

    Its a fair enough point, and why a custodial sentence was needed. Just think 5.5 yrs is a bit much. Maybe 4 years is enough here. My personal 2 c anyway.
  • MrJones
    MrJones Posts: 3,523
    You either have an age of consent or you don't.

    It's especially important

    1. where the adult is in loco parentis (and they should be treated in that light imo).

    2. in child prostitution/grooming where the victim will lie if they're scared of the people doing it.
  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Jeez. Forrest was her teacher. It's not so much about the age difference, it's the teacher-pupil thing that makes it a million times worse. I'd be unhappy if one of my boys at 15 or 16 had a relationship with a much older women, and if she was his teacher, I'd feel the same way about her as I do about Forrest.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    I think the ones he listed previously are the only ones with 2013 CC elections covering the whole constituency.
    Blackpool and Warrington are Unitaries. Bury is a Met. Rossendale and Darwen contains part of Blackburn Borough. Weaver Vale have parts under Halton council
    Neil said:

    Can AndyJS tell us which of the marginals Henry mentions in his header saw Labour majorities in the local elections (where there were elections)?

    Isnt Rossendale and Darwen the seat Will Straw is going for?

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Pulpstar said:

    He should be out by Christmas 2016. Maybe the young lady in question could write a novel about her escapades ?
    Anyway I hope she manages to make a shedload of cash out of it all. Best of luck to her !

    There's a great book by Zoe Heller about a teacher who falls for her pupil and gets zapped by the press/legal system. It was made into an excellent film with Judi Dench as a rather creepy *confidante* http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0465551/ I read the book twice and its a very compelling and believable narrative of affairs like Forrest's.

    Notes on a Scandal (What Was She Thinking? Notes on a Scandal in the U.S.) is a 2003 novel by Zoë Heller. It is about a female teacher at a London comprehensive school who begins an affair with an underage pupil. The novel was shortlisted for the 2003 Man Booker Prize.

    A film version was released in 2006 and stars Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett, both of whom were nominated for Academy Awards for their roles. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notes_on_a_Scandal

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    I think the ones he listed previously are the only ones with 2013 CC elections covering the whole constituency.uote>

    Thanks Andrea - I managed to miss that post before I posted my question!

  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Liberton

    LD votes redistributed. Tories eliminated now. Situation as follow

    Labour 3255
    SNP 2523"

    I haven't worked it out, but it looks like there might have been a small swing from Labour to SNP on first preferences?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Plato said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He should be out by Christmas 2016. Maybe the young lady in question could write a novel about her escapades ?
    Anyway I hope she manages to make a shedload of cash out of it all. Best of luck to her !

    There's a great book by Zoe Heller about a teacher who falls for her pupil and gets zapped by the press/legal system. It was made into an excellent film with Judi Dench as a rather creepy *confidante* http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0465551/ I read the book twice and its a very compelling and believable narrative of affairs like Forrest's.

    Notes on a Scandal (What Was She Thinking? Notes on a Scandal in the U.S.) is a 2003 novel by Zoë Heller. It is about a female teacher at a London comprehensive school who begins an affair with an underage pupil. The novel was shortlisted for the 2003 Man Booker Prize.

    A film version was released in 2006 and stars Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett, both of whom were nominated for Academy Awards for their roles. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notes_on_a_Scandal

    That is a great movie, Dame Judi Dench plays the part of a bitter blackmailing bitch very well.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.

    Forrest is a criminal, but he is NOT a pedophile, despite what the Daily Mail might say. A pedo is someone sexually attracted to pre-pubescents.

    "As a medical diagnosis, pedophilia or paedophilia is a psychiatric disorder in persons 16 years of age or older typically characterized by a primary or exclusive sexual interest toward prepubescent children (generally age 11 years or younger, though specific diagnosis criteria for the disorder extends the cut-off point for prepubescence to age 13)"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedophilia

    By your definition, 90% of heterosexual men are pedos, as - rough guess - 90% of men would be sexually aroused by a photo of a naked 15 year old girl who is past puberty (if they weren't told her age beforehand). The whole point of puberty is to make girls attractive to men, for the purposes of procreation.

    This confusion is symptomatic of our ridiculous, bewildered hysteria which surrounds the issue, on which I might do me a blog later.

    FWIW I think Forrest was predatory, villainous, and abused his position, however his sentence seems somewhat harsh - not far from what a rapist might get. 2-3 years might have been better.
    Do you think women are similarly attracted to young men?

    I only ask as I simply can't even watch a Justin Bieber video without feeling dirty. Despite all his fame, I'd no idea what he was actually famous for so Googled a video of his last chart topper on YouTube - I had to switch it off within about 30secs.

  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Andy_JS said:

    Throughout most of human history, a 30 year old man having sexual relations with a 15 year old girl would have been nothing out of the ordinary. In fact it still is normal in a lot of countries like Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, etc.

    Slavery has been around for most of humanity too.....

    To me, the big issue is - he was a teacher - in a position of trust he abused most grievously - I suspect a '30 year old bricklayer' and a 15 year old school girl would have also been custodial - but not as long....
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Liberton

    LD votes redistributed. Tories eliminated now. Situation as follow

    Labour 3255
    SNP 2523

    Now redistributing Con votes

    That will be interesting. Now many Cons are there?

    Do they prefer anti-Union or Labour? or NOTA?
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.


    This confusion is symptomatic of our ridiculous, bewildered hysteria which surrounds the issue, on which I might do me a blog later.
    In my home town a rumour went round that a certain house had a paedo living in it. Cue outraged graffiti etc.

    It ended pretty quickly when someone finally explained what the word "paediatrician" actually meant.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab -1.4 SNP -0.9 Con -1 LD +0.7

    Yesterday was the start of LibDem Scottish revival!
    JamesKelly said:

    "
    I haven't worked it out, but it looks like there might have been a small swing from Labour to SNP on first preferences?

  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour have on Liberton. Waiting for all figures and transfers.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.


    This confusion is symptomatic of our ridiculous, bewildered hysteria which surrounds the issue, on which I might do me a blog later.
    In my home town a rumour went round that a certain house had a paedo living in it. Cue outraged graffiti etc.

    It ended pretty quickly when someone finally explained what the word "paediatrician" actually meant.
    But they ain't so bright down Portsmouth way
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Plato said:

    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.

    Forrest is a criminal, but he is NOT a pedophile, despite what the Daily Mail might say. A pedo is someone sexually attracted to pre-pubescents.

    "As a medical diagnosis, pedophilia or paedophilia is a psychiatric disorder in persons 16 years of age or older typically characterized by a primary or exclusive sexual interest toward prepubescent children (generally age 11 years or younger, though specific diagnosis criteria for the disorder extends the cut-off point for prepubescence to age 13)"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedophilia

    By your definition, 90% of heterosexual men are pedos, as - rough guess - 90% of men would be sexually aroused by a photo of a naked 15 year old girl who is past puberty (if they weren't told her age beforehand). The whole point of puberty is to make girls attractive to men, for the purposes of procreation.

    This confusion is symptomatic of our ridiculous, bewildered hysteria which surrounds the issue, on which I might do me a blog later.

    FWIW I think Forrest was predatory, villainous, and abused his position, however his sentence seems somewhat harsh - not far from what a rapist might get. 2-3 years might have been better.
    Do you think women are similarly attracted to young men?

    I only ask as I simply can't even watch a Justin Bieber video without feeling dirty. Despite all his fame, I'd no idea what he was actually famous for so Googled a video of his last chart topper on YouTube - I had to switch it off within about 30secs.

    30 seconds too long !
  • JamesKelly
    JamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    OK, a 0.25% swing from Labour to SNP. Better than nothing. In line with the Labour mantra last night, I'l have to work out which SLab heavyweights that would "take out".
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He should be out by Christmas 2016. Maybe the young lady in question could write a novel about her escapades ?
    Anyway I hope she manages to make a shedload of cash out of it all. Best of luck to her !

    There's a great book by Zoe Heller about a teacher who falls for her pupil and gets zapped by the press/legal system. It was made into an excellent film with Judi Dench as a rather creepy *confidante* http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0465551/ I read the book twice and its a very compelling and believable narrative of affairs like Forrest's.

    Notes on a Scandal (What Was She Thinking? Notes on a Scandal in the U.S.) is a 2003 novel by Zoë Heller. It is about a female teacher at a London comprehensive school who begins an affair with an underage pupil. The novel was shortlisted for the 2003 Man Booker Prize.

    A film version was released in 2006 and stars Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett, both of whom were nominated for Academy Awards for their roles. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notes_on_a_Scandal

    That is a great movie, Dame Judi Dench plays the part of a bitter blackmailing bitch very well.
    Doesn't she just! And Sheba doesn't have a clue until its all too late. I thought the book was better than the movie because it allowed you to pause and think 'what was she thinking?!' or 'could that be me?' or 'FCUK, my life is over'.

    I must dig it out and read it again - it's a real page turner/finish it in one go sort of book. Isn't Zoe the daughter of Mr Heller?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    "As a medical diagnosis, pedophilia or paedophilia is a psychiatric disorder in persons 16 years of age or older typically characterized by a primary or exclusive sexual interest toward prepubescent children (generally age 11 years or younger, though specific diagnosis criteria for the disorder extends the cut-off point for prepubescence to age 13)"

    Interesting. I've always felt that being attracted to the opposite sex is something I was born with, rather than something nurtured. The above seems to suggest that Paedophiles are made, not born, however.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Neil said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Absolutely. It would still have been wrong if she had been 16.

    It would still have been illegal if she was 16.
    So why did the Judge remark:

    "By her 15th birthday any thought of waiting until she was 16 had been abandoned, if ever that had been the plan, and you embarked upon a full sexual relationship soon after. Texts that we have heard of show that you were active in driving that relationship forward.

    - See more at: http://www.crimeline.info/case/r-v-jeremy-forrest#sthash.6IkSU0TH.ITdIYYcz.dpuf
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    taffys said:

    "As a medical diagnosis, pedophilia or paedophilia is a psychiatric disorder in persons 16 years of age or older typically characterized by a primary or exclusive sexual interest toward prepubescent children (generally age 11 years or younger, though specific diagnosis criteria for the disorder extends the cut-off point for prepubescence to age 13)"

    Interesting. I've always felt that being attracted to the opposite sex is something I was born with, rather than something nurtured. The above seems to suggest that Paedophiles are made, not born, however.

    Without getting too gritty - I can sort of imagine fancying mid-teenagers even if I got older [clearly I don't myself but can get my head around it as they're often quite pretty either girls or boys].

    But I can't in a zillions years imagine fancying anyone who is 0-13yrs old - I simply can't. When we hear of reports of baby rape et al - I just flinch - even typing the words makes me recoil. I just can't understand how something that isn't sexual can appeal to anyone at all.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    JamesKelly said:

    OK, a 0.25% swing from Labour to SNP. Better than nothing. In line with the Labour mantra last night, I'l have to work out which SLab heavyweights that would "take out".

    If your fellow Scots vote for independence we can get rid of 40 or so. Imagine that, single malts all round.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2013
    Probably the SNP guys in South and Central would fall on this kind of swing

    Actually, it seems the Tories carried Central in 2012 locals....but Labour would lead in East with this kind of figures. Pentlands would be just Tory.

    In Westminster, all seats would probably been majorities below 5% for Lab or SNP.
    JamesKelly said:

    OK, a 0.25% swing from Labour to SNP. Better than nothing. In line with the Labour mantra last night, I'l have to work out which SLab heavyweights that would "take out".

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Pedophilia is an entirely different thing: a deviance and a perversity by definition - no offspring can result from sex with a pre-pubescent child.

    Agreed. but are paedophiles 'born' with their deviance or is it something they develop through life experience?? Is it something they could 'help?'
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    I just can't understand how something that isn't sexual can appeal to anyone at all.

    Neither can I, but are these people born warped, or does experience warp them?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    CarlottaVance said:

    Neil said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Absolutely. It would still have been wrong if she had been 16.

    It would still have been illegal if she was 16.
    So why did the Judge remark:

    "By her 15th birthday any thought of waiting until she was 16 had been abandoned, if ever that had been the plan, and you embarked upon a full sexual relationship soon after. Texts that we have heard of show that you were active in driving that relationship forward.

    - See more at: http://www.crimeline.info/case/r-v-jeremy-forrest#sthash.6IkSU0TH.ITdIYYcz.dpuf
    Sentencing guidelines are different for 16-18 year olds (In positions of trust) ?
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    Charles said:

    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.


    This confusion is symptomatic of our ridiculous, bewildered hysteria which surrounds the issue, on which I might do me a blog later.
    In my home town a rumour went round that a certain house had a paedo living in it. Cue outraged graffiti etc.

    It ended pretty quickly when someone finally explained what the word "paediatrician" actually meant.
    But they ain't so bright down Portsmouth way
    Unfortunately Charles, you're thinking of the wrong city (and indeed wrong nation).
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Up for a telegraph blog post Sean ? !
  • volcanopete
    volcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Another interesting piece from Henry G.,outlining yet another convincing rationale as to why a Tory win in 2015 remains unlikely.The best price available, 4-1, looks awfully short to me especially when the term "swivel-eyed loons" seems to be accurate as in

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/06/21/tory-mps-ban-burka-death-penalty-queens-speech_n_3477168.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    corporeal said:


    Unfortunately Charles, you're thinking of the wrong city (and indeed wrong nation).

    We tend to give Charles 500 miles of leeway when it comes to British geography ;)
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    the tory win price of 4-1 looks short given the circumstances and polling now but that 4/1 is a price on what will happen in two years and the polling and circumstances then-- I wouldn't back it now personally but would not like to lay a large bet on it happening as well
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Neil said:

    corporeal said:


    Unfortunately Charles, you're thinking of the wrong city (and indeed wrong nation).

    We tend to give Charles 500 miles of leeway when it comes to British geography ;)
    400 more than John' O then *innocent face* :) ?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    taffys said:

    I just can't understand how something that isn't sexual can appeal to anyone at all.

    Neither can I, but are these people born warped, or does experience warp them?

    I really have no idea - I assume that when children fiddle with other children - and its not a case of curiosity 'I'll show you mine if you show me yours' in the playground - then there's something psychological going on.

    IIRC sociopathic and psychopathic tendencies start to show themselves in children around 7/8yrs old - being cruel to animals is a red flag and it just becomes more obvious as they develop into teenagers especially when it comes to manipulating others.

    I can't think of anything worse than being a good parent and your kid growing up to be a monster. I assume there is a fair proportion who ape behaviour learned at home, but there are enough to say that it also just happens as a result of unlucky genes - no different to but harder to spot than a physical disorder.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    There is something slightly bizarre about this in that the charge was abduction. She very clearly was not abducted. Even the person who helped find them confirmed that they were very relaxed and happy together.

    As James has said the key to this case is the breach of trust. That is serious and deserving of a custodial sentence. One consideration is that he needs to have been locked up for long enough for any hold that he had over her from the breach of trust has been broken. That is clearly not the position yet. Given our absurd rules which means the sentence has so little connection with the time served I am not sure the Judge could have gone much lower.
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    whats the MMR uptake like in Portsmouth?
  • TwistedFireStopper
    TwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    tim said:

    Neil said:

    corporeal said:


    Unfortunately Charles, you're thinking of the wrong city (and indeed wrong nation).

    We tend to give Charles 500 miles of leeway when it comes to British geography ;)
    To be fair to Charles this isn't yet another example of education misselling, the press have reported the incident as occurring in both South Wales and Portsmouth.

    That sounds like an urban myth. Parts of the country can't be that stupid, can they? Hang on, people still keep voting for the 3 main parties, so I guess they must be!

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    4-1 is too short. Should be 7 or 8 -1 I think.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    corporeal said:

    Charles said:

    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    @Plato - I agree with SO on the previous thread - Stuart Hall was sentenced according to the penalties in place at the time of his offences, now appropriately much stiffer.

    Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.


    This confusion is symptomatic of our ridiculous, bewildered hysteria which surrounds the issue, on which I might do me a blog later.
    In my home town a rumour went round that a certain house had a paedo living in it. Cue outraged graffiti etc.

    It ended pretty quickly when someone finally explained what the word "paediatrician" actually meant.
    But they ain't so bright down Portsmouth way
    Unfortunately Charles, you're thinking of the wrong city (and indeed wrong nation).
    I may have got your location wrong, but I stand by the accuracy of my statement!
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    I sense a new 'funding round' area coming on
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    For an urban myth - the Guardian seemed to think it was true at the time and quoted the victim www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2000/aug/30/childprotection.society

    Self-styled vigilantes attacked the home of a hospital paediatrician after apparently confusing her professional title with the word "paedophile", it emerged yesterday.

    Dr Yvette Cloete, a specialist registrar in paediatric medicine at the Royal Gwent hospital in Newport, was forced to flee her house after vandals daubed it with graffiti in the middle of the night.

    The word "paedo" was written across the front porch and door of the house she shared with her brother in the village of St Brides, south Wales.

    Dr Cloete, 42, confirmed she had left the property after the "distressing" attack. "For the time being I have moved out of the area because when something like this happens you just cannot feel safe in your own home.

    "We removed the graffiti within hours, but what happened was terrible and it has been extremely distressing."

    Gwent police confirmed that the attack last Friday night was prompted by a confusion over the words "paedophile" and "paediatrician".

    Inspector Andrew Adams said: "It appears to be the case. We are still making inquiries. We want to stress in the strongest possible terms that there is nothing to justify what was written on the walls and door of Dr Cloete's home."

    He said every effort was being made to find the people responsible for the attack. "These people should think long and hard about what they have done to a valuable member of the community, who has devoted her life to helping children.

    "We are concerned that some people in the local community have taken it upon themselves to do this, and would urge them to think about the consequences of their inaccurate and inappropriate actions."

    The Royal Gwent hospital described Dr Cloete as a top-class specialist in children's diseases. A spokesman said: " She is a valued and respected member of the paediatric team, where she has worked for the last two and a half years."

    A neighbour of the doctor and her brother said: "They are decent people who we get on very well with. It is very unfortunate that something like this has happened."

    Dr Cloete is the latest victim to have been wrongly identified by anti-paedophile campaigners in the wave of protests which have swept the country following the News of the World's campaign to "name and shame" alleged sex offenders.

    Five families who were wrongly identified as harbouring sex offenders were forced to flee their homes in the Paulsgrove estate in Portsmouth as violence flared earlier this month.

    The Sunday tabloid wants the government to introduce a law allowing people access to information on the identities and addresses of paedophiles in their areas.
  • state_go_away
    state_go_away Posts: 5,855
    its possible 4/1 is fairly priced, as I have said I would have no great inclination to either back or lay the tories at that price at this moment. Many factors come into play as we approach a new election --eg people will start to think seriously about whether Ed Miliband should be a PM (errrmmm) , the economy could improve (possibly thats a lower price that it happens than 4/1) , scottish refrendum could be a factor as well .
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2013
    I wonder how much the papers are willing to pay the young woman in the teacher case for her story if she is willing to waive her anonymity.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    Neil said:

    corporeal said:


    Unfortunately Charles, you're thinking of the wrong city (and indeed wrong nation).

    We tend to give Charles 500 miles of leeway when it comes to British geography ;)
    To be fair to Charles this isn't yet another example education misselling, the press have reported the incident as occurring in both South Wales and Portsmouth.

    It has the air of urban myth to me.
    IIRC it was that time when the girl with the ginger hair (who we are not allowed to talk about) was running a campaign against unspeakable people in a now defunct national newspaper
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