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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will a struggling North West cost Cameron the election?
Many ask if ‘the UK economy’ will recover before the general election? One thing that’s struck me in recent weeks is how different parts of the country are already faring quite differently to each other. As a result there is the growing chance that areas like London and the South East pick up by 2015 but that they leave behind large parts of the North and Midlands.
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I can see how a swing voter here might get annoyed at Osborne trumpeting recovery when things are little changed in this region.
Osborne has the card of tax cuts to play, however.
Meanwhile, a pictorial depiction of the astonishment William Hague gets wherever he goes about the decision of the Gambia to move on from London rule -
https://twitter.com/bigbuachaille/status/348064929967915008/photo/1
The Tories have been in power for 26 of those 50 years.
The most popular comment now at over 3000 Likes is criticising the Mail for its double standards - the next 10 are all WTF over the sentencing and wishing the couple well/he was stupid/comparing to Hall.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2345665/Jeremy-Forrest-jailed-FIVE-AND-A-HALF-YEARS-guilty-abducting-pupil-15.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
We also know that Labour are struggling more with C2DE than among the ABs. We're still a very long way from May 2015.
Were all of the MP's and local councils controlled by the tories for 25 0f those years, I rather though the area was solid Labour
Despite the couple's protestations to the contrary, the Jury believed the teacher was a paedophile who groomed his victim - and such a severe breach of trust by a teacher deserves a severe sentence.
What difference does it make if the MPs of a region are "controlled" by Labour? Tory governments don't devolve power to a Northwest Grand Committee.
As a bloke I am staggered that any man who wasnt a teenager would even consider a schoolgirl girlfriend. It would be different if he met her in a bar and only later found out her age but to do what he has done is absolute filth in my opinion.
"Mr Twigg’s point about satisfying “surplus places” rather than parents baffles Jo Morey, whose son is at Bedford Free School. “There’s no point in surplus places if none is good enough for your child,” she told me yesterday. What does Labour offer voters like her?
Every party needs to explain the sort of people they stand for. The Tories now have mothers like Jo Morey, young teachers like Mark Lehain and people helped back to work like Michael Shearsby and Peter O’Hanlon. Whether or not the affection is reciprocated, a new Tory target constituency is emerging.
All this has raised the stakes for the next general election. It won’t be the rich who have most to lose from a Miliband
victory: they can always buy their way out of whatever problems government throws in their way. The losers will be parents who want a better school, but can’t afford to move closer to one. Or the unemployed, who might be judged beyond help.
Every time Mr Miliband offers more definition for the Labour Party, the clearer it becomes that Labour has pretty much given up on the working class. There is a huge opportunity here, should the Tories have the wit to take it."
"Gay cure' Christian ministry shuts down as leader apologises and admits he's attracted to men."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/gay-cure-christian-ministry-shuts-down-as-leader-apologises-and-admits-hes-attracted-to-men-8668299.html
Dear God, please may a 'Traditional Marriage Tory' be caught in St James Park....
I don't think there's any problem with a 22 year old man having a 17 year old schoolgirl girlfriend. A 30 year old teacher and his 15 year old pupil is a different matter entirely.
Agreed. Its the same with the NHS. Hunt has stunned labour by fighting for the user over the provider, but within the framework of free at the point of use. What is the labour response?
There isn't one.
Mr Dodd, please get this through your head - outside the devolved nations, there is no way that Labour MPs can "control an area". Either Labour control the UK government, or they don't. If they don't, then the northwest is ruled by Tories just like everywhere else, and the Tories are the culprits if something goes wrong.
I suppose in the very few cases where a 22year old is teaching a 17 year old it would be less of a big deal, but the chances of it happening must be incredibly small...how many qualified teachers at 22 start their careers teaching sixth formers?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E#gid=0
Groping a range of pre-teens using your celebrity is IMO vile as there is no relationship there - its the powerful against the vulnerable [who won't be believed or rubbished/threatened by their PR machine]. A pupil can report a teacher these days in the blink of an eye - there is no barrier to this given the uber sensitivity of the subject in schools.
Frankly, I find the idea of fancying someone younger than me really creepy - but I know age gaps don't bother everyone. I find Leonardo Di Caprio in Titantic and Justin Bieber just unwatchable. I once had a date who was 10yrs younger than me and I felt like his mum - it was just a no-no, yet I've gone out with men 10yrs my senior and thought nothing of it.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/howard-dean-considers-launching-another-presidential-bid
Deep thought from John Ekdahl recently: https://twitter.com/JohnEkdahl/status/343255588110745600
What must this blokes mates be saying to him? She is a child in his care...
Wrongun, deserves all he gets.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Green: 14%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%
Others: 8%
To put it slightly differently, section 16 of the Sexual Offences Act 2003 does not engage issues of consent.
Part of the section is given over to the position of trust - which is not in question - which leaves the key provisions for this case:
A person aged 18 or over (A) commits an offence if
(a) he intentionally touches another person (B)
(b) the touching is sexual
(c) B is under 18 and A does not reasonably believe that B is 18 or over.
The relevant age being 18 and not 16, although not relevant here, was certainly a deliberate decision by lawmakers that could be challenged.
Last year when i was 37 I went out with a 25 yr old for a few months and even that felt uncomfortable.
The fact that he is her teacher makes it about 100 times worse than if he had met her in a bar or something. I think that abuse of power is what makes it so much worse for this bloke.
As for Hall, yes I'm surprised he didn't get longer in jail. What he did is a kind of mental illness I would think
Not really, because Linke aren't part of the centre-left bloc, so that's a 46%-39% lead for the centre-right bloc. There has been the odd poll like that before, so we'll have to see if it's just an outlier. The SPD do seem to be polling lower in recent weeks, though. A lot will depend on whether the FDP make the threshold - as you know, I don't share your view that they are likely to benefit to any great extent from CDU tactical switchers.
Indeed. You surely have to go into teaching with the view that anybody, but anybody in your care is off limits, no matter how much you like them and they like you.
tim said:
» show previous quotes
How can someone under the age of consent give consent?
@tim.
In strict legal terms they cannot consent legally, but in human terms they can consent or else it would be rape. Anyway if the police and prosecutors are so keen on prosecuting the male in a case of sex with a female who is under the age of consent, then are we to expect a queue of cases at the magistrates courts for the males who were responsible for all girls who conceived under the age of 16 - somehow I think not!
""An inspiring teacher can lift children to levels neither they nor their parents could have dreamt. You chose to ignore the cardinal rule of teaching.
"Time and time again your colleagues warned and advised you and offered support. You lied to them about the nature of your relationship.
"You complained that the rumours circulating were lies by the girl."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-23005747
I think he was a silly berk, feel very sorry for his wife who must be totally humiliated by the whole saga and for the pair of them who are caught up in this nightmare. They should have waited.
The refusal by the Coalition to be dragged into the government's leadership crisis has crippled a key argument being used by Julia Gillard's camp to keep MPs loyal to her - that a change could spark a constitutional crisis.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/labor-leadership-hurdle-gone-kevin-rudd-has-the-all-clear/story-fnii5s3x-1226667837843#ixzz2WrJ6VKUs
That's odd that the opposition would be clearing a path for the more popular Rudd -surely they're shooting themselves in the foot there?
Which this teacher fails - I guess he could retrain as a priest in jail ?
Anyway I hope she manages to make a shedload of cash out of it all. Best of luck to her !
Nah its still wrong....Imagine she turns sixteen and it goes public. It's bound to disrupt the learning environment in the school.
Its just not fair on the other pupils and teachers. It wouldn;t be fair if she was 18....
Isnt Rossendale and Darwen the seat Will Straw is going for?
I never understood the attention given to Toy Boy stories until I had a brief glimpse of it myself - I just can't imagine it myself - ever.
LD votes redistributed. Tories eliminated now. Situation as follow
Labour 3255
SNP 2523
Now redistributing Con votes
But you have to factor in the teacher/position of trust element. If it wasn't for that, I might agree the sentence was a bit harsh.
It's especially important
1. where the adult is in loco parentis (and they should be treated in that light imo).
2. in child prostitution/grooming where the victim will lie if they're scared of the people doing it.
Blackpool and Warrington are Unitaries. Bury is a Met. Rossendale and Darwen contains part of Blackburn Borough. Weaver Vale have parts under Halton council
Notes on a Scandal (What Was She Thinking? Notes on a Scandal in the U.S.) is a 2003 novel by Zoë Heller. It is about a female teacher at a London comprehensive school who begins an affair with an underage pupil. The novel was shortlisted for the 2003 Man Booker Prize.
A film version was released in 2006 and stars Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett, both of whom were nominated for Academy Awards for their roles. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notes_on_a_Scandal
LD votes redistributed. Tories eliminated now. Situation as follow
Labour 3255
SNP 2523"
I haven't worked it out, but it looks like there might have been a small swing from Labour to SNP on first preferences?
I only ask as I simply can't even watch a Justin Bieber video without feeling dirty. Despite all his fame, I'd no idea what he was actually famous for so Googled a video of his last chart topper on YouTube - I had to switch it off within about 30secs.
To me, the big issue is - he was a teacher - in a position of trust he abused most grievously - I suspect a '30 year old bricklayer' and a 15 year old school girl would have also been custodial - but not as long....
Do they prefer anti-Union or Labour? or NOTA?
It ended pretty quickly when someone finally explained what the word "paediatrician" actually meant.
Yesterday was the start of LibDem Scottish revival!
I must dig it out and read it again - it's a real page turner/finish it in one go sort of book. Isn't Zoe the daughter of Mr Heller?
Interesting. I've always felt that being attracted to the opposite sex is something I was born with, rather than something nurtured. The above seems to suggest that Paedophiles are made, not born, however.
"By her 15th birthday any thought of waiting until she was 16 had been abandoned, if ever that had been the plan, and you embarked upon a full sexual relationship soon after. Texts that we have heard of show that you were active in driving that relationship forward.
- See more at: http://www.crimeline.info/case/r-v-jeremy-forrest#sthash.6IkSU0TH.ITdIYYcz.dpuf
But I can't in a zillions years imagine fancying anyone who is 0-13yrs old - I simply can't. When we hear of reports of baby rape et al - I just flinch - even typing the words makes me recoil. I just can't understand how something that isn't sexual can appeal to anyone at all.
Actually, it seems the Tories carried Central in 2012 locals....but Labour would lead in East with this kind of figures. Pentlands would be just Tory.
In Westminster, all seats would probably been majorities below 5% for Lab or SNP.
Agreed. but are paedophiles 'born' with their deviance or is it something they develop through life experience?? Is it something they could 'help?'
Neither can I, but are these people born warped, or does experience warp them?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/06/21/tory-mps-ban-burka-death-penalty-queens-speech_n_3477168.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
IIRC sociopathic and psychopathic tendencies start to show themselves in children around 7/8yrs old - being cruel to animals is a red flag and it just becomes more obvious as they develop into teenagers especially when it comes to manipulating others.
I can't think of anything worse than being a good parent and your kid growing up to be a monster. I assume there is a fair proportion who ape behaviour learned at home, but there are enough to say that it also just happens as a result of unlucky genes - no different to but harder to spot than a physical disorder.
As James has said the key to this case is the breach of trust. That is serious and deserving of a custodial sentence. One consideration is that he needs to have been locked up for long enough for any hold that he had over her from the breach of trust has been broken. That is clearly not the position yet. Given our absurd rules which means the sentence has so little connection with the time served I am not sure the Judge could have gone much lower.
Self-styled vigilantes attacked the home of a hospital paediatrician after apparently confusing her professional title with the word "paedophile", it emerged yesterday.
Dr Yvette Cloete, a specialist registrar in paediatric medicine at the Royal Gwent hospital in Newport, was forced to flee her house after vandals daubed it with graffiti in the middle of the night.
The word "paedo" was written across the front porch and door of the house she shared with her brother in the village of St Brides, south Wales.
Dr Cloete, 42, confirmed she had left the property after the "distressing" attack. "For the time being I have moved out of the area because when something like this happens you just cannot feel safe in your own home.
"We removed the graffiti within hours, but what happened was terrible and it has been extremely distressing."
Gwent police confirmed that the attack last Friday night was prompted by a confusion over the words "paedophile" and "paediatrician".
Inspector Andrew Adams said: "It appears to be the case. We are still making inquiries. We want to stress in the strongest possible terms that there is nothing to justify what was written on the walls and door of Dr Cloete's home."
He said every effort was being made to find the people responsible for the attack. "These people should think long and hard about what they have done to a valuable member of the community, who has devoted her life to helping children.
"We are concerned that some people in the local community have taken it upon themselves to do this, and would urge them to think about the consequences of their inaccurate and inappropriate actions."
The Royal Gwent hospital described Dr Cloete as a top-class specialist in children's diseases. A spokesman said: " She is a valued and respected member of the paediatric team, where she has worked for the last two and a half years."
A neighbour of the doctor and her brother said: "They are decent people who we get on very well with. It is very unfortunate that something like this has happened."
Dr Cloete is the latest victim to have been wrongly identified by anti-paedophile campaigners in the wave of protests which have swept the country following the News of the World's campaign to "name and shame" alleged sex offenders.
Five families who were wrongly identified as harbouring sex offenders were forced to flee their homes in the Paulsgrove estate in Portsmouth as violence flared earlier this month.
The Sunday tabloid wants the government to introduce a law allowing people access to information on the identities and addresses of paedophiles in their areas.