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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will a struggling North West cost Cameron the election?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942

    I wonder how much the papers are willing to pay the young woman in the teacher case for her story if she is willing to waive her anonymity.

    She is hardly anonymous despite this country's ludicrous legal constructs to try and make her so.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    First Prefs

    Lab 2892
    SNP 2249
    Con 823
    LD 605
    Green 412
    UKIP 235
    Ind 64
    Pirate 47

    Pirates sink:
    18 to Greens, 6 to LD, 6 to Ind, 4 to Lab, 4 to UKIP, 2 to SNP, 1 to Con. 6 Non Transferrables

    Ind Scott eliminated
    12 to Con, 12 to UKIP 10 to Lab, 10 to Greens, 5 to SNP, 5 to LD. 16 Non Transferrable

    UKIP eliminated
    67 to Con, 35 to Lab, 31 to SNP, 31 to Greens, 9 to LD. 78 Non Transferrable

    Greens eliminated
    129 to Lab, 116 to SNP, 83 to LD, 31 to Con. 112 Non transferrable

    LD eliminated
    185 to Lab, 164 to Con, 120 to SNP. 239 Non transferrable

    Con eliminated
    193 to Lab, 110 to SNP. 795 non transferrable
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    edited June 2013
    @DavidL

    The courts deciding that someone was abducted when they weren't abducted in the standard meaning of the word is the same sort of thing as people being charged with "making" indecent photos online when clearly they didn't make anything, all they did was look at them on the internet. Those are examples of the meanings of words being changed or modified to suit the purposes of the courts, police, justice system, etc.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    I'm completely agreeing with Dawkins' assesment on this one. Tugendhat has delivered a nonsense verdict.
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    JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "UKIP eliminated
    67 to Con, 35 to Lab, 31 to SNP, 31 to Greens, 9 to LD."


    31 Kippers transferred to the "Scottish Nasty Party"? I trust Lord Monckton will be excommunicating them forthwith.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    I don't for a second believe in psychics, but having seen Derren Brown in action - I can fully understand why anyone who wasn't certain it was cobblers would be convinced. He's a master of the art of mentalism and if he chose to be a charlatan would no doubt have made an enormous fortune.

    That he's also a very accomplished magician and artist just shows what creativity and a top drawer IQ can accomplish - he's a rare beast.

    His stage shows are incredible. This is rather fun taster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtpbQls5Kpw
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Fife Council posted just first preferences for their Glenrothes North by-election....I hope they didn't lose the spreadsheet witht the transfers!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Plato said:

    I don't for a second believe in psychics, but having seen Derren Brown in action - I can fully understand why anyone who wasn't certain it was cobblers would be convinced. He's a master of the art of mentalism and if he chose to be a charlatan would no doubt have made an enormous fortune.

    That he's also a very accomplished magician and artist just shows what creativity and a top drawer IQ can accomplish - he's a rare beast.

    His stage shows are incredible. This is rather fun taster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtpbQls5Kpw
    Derren Brown is brilliant, he could have easily have passed himself off as a psychic with his mental manipulations and suggetions.

    In fact he has done the opposite and showed what power suggestion and mood influencing amongst other things can have - well it is probably the best tool we have to show people that psychics are frauds and charlatans the lot.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    edited June 2013
    The case of the paediatrician being confused for a paedophile in Wales a few years ago was certainly a true occurrence as far as I know.

    In fact it's still available as a BBC news web report:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/901723.stm
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    edited June 2013
    Derren Brown is a genius at what he does. I bought DVDs of most of his shows a few years ago because I wanted to try to understand how he does things, mostly without success.

    One of my favourites was when he asked the novelist Iain Banks to choose a single word from any of his books and correctly predicted beforehand which one it would be.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm completely agreeing with Dawkins' assesment on this one. Tugendhat has delivered a nonsense verdict.
    The issue was not whether she was a psychic or not - that was never tested - but whether she knowingly (tough to prove) set out to deceive, and was in cahoots with theatre hands - which she was not.

    If the Mail had stuck to 'psychics are rubbish' they would have been fine - but they didn't - and that's what got them into trouble.....
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    Most people who go to see phychics go for a laugh or to be entertained- its not a big problem really--should we go all serious and 'expose' Gypsy Lee type fortune tellers as well? Most people know its fantasy but people ,once in a while, like fantasy.

    I can just imagine some MP calling for a ban or licensing of them soon in our ridiculous licensing/regulating/nanny culture we have
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    I don't for a second believe in psychics, but having seen Derren Brown in action - I can fully understand why anyone who wasn't certain it was cobblers would be convinced. He's a master of the art of mentalism and if he chose to be a charlatan would no doubt have made an enormous fortune.

    That he's also a very accomplished magician and artist just shows what creativity and a top drawer IQ can accomplish - he's a rare beast.

    His stage shows are incredible. This is rather fun taster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtpbQls5Kpw
    Derren Brown is brilliant, he could have easily have passed himself off as a psychic with his mental manipulations and suggetions.

    In fact he has done the opposite and showed what power suggestion and mood influencing amongst other things can have - well it is probably the best tool we have to show people that psychics are frauds and charlatans the lot.
    The more I see what Derren's done - the more amazing it is - I read his book a few yrs ago and he danced a very clever thin line between breaking the Magic Circle re conjuring and exposing the tricks/techniques of mentalism.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942

    Most people who go to see phychics go for a laugh or to be entertained- its not a big problem really--should we go all serious and 'expose' Gypsy Lee type fortune tellers as well? Most people know its fantasy but people ,once in a while, like fantasy.

    I can just imagine some MP calling for a ban or licensing of them soon in our ridiculous licensing/regulating/nanny culture we have

    You'd like to believe that but some people don't. "Told me things she couldn't possibly know" a friend of mine said as I asked her if the lady had given her more information when she handed another £20 note...
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    oh for a phychic who could 'tell us things nobody coudl possibly know' about the next election eh Pulpstar? Well worth £20
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    More Liverpool Labour sleaze - troughing the taxpayer for union cash.

    http://order-order.com/2013/06/21/bergers-trade-union-lobbyist-merry-go-round/

    "A classic case of cosy Labour sweeteners with trade union lobbyists here. According to the latest available figures Luciana Berger charges the taxpayer £1,750 per quarter for her constituency office rent. For where? Her website says that when back in Liverpool Wavertree she works out of the UCATT union’s office. That would be the same UCATT union that have generously given Labour £78,750 since 2010. Surely Luciana couldn’t possibly be bunging taxpayer money to a party donor."
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andy_JS said:

    Derren Brown is a genius at what he does. I bought DVDs of most of his shows a few years ago because I wanted to try to understand how he does things, mostly without success.

    One of my favourites was when he asked the novelist Iain Banks to choose a single word from any of his books and correctly predicted beforehand which one it would be.

    Wow - that's impressive - he has trouble with David Frost but gets him in the end here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgBqqJyRaa4
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    Another Derren Brown favourite for me was when he got a person who runs a ghost train at an amusement park to have a go at riding the train himself, despite the fact that he must have been on it many times before. Brown gave him a sinister-sounding talk beforehand and then sent him on the ride. When he came out he had almost died of fright.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    FPT o/T @Theuniondivvie many thanks for the link. looks great. I'm now officially a fan of the internet. or archives, anyway.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Andy_JS said:

    The case of the paediatrician being confused for a paedophile in Wales a few years ago was certainly a true occurrence as far as I know.

    In fact it's still available as a BBC news web report:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/901723.stm

    Maybe 'serial labout voters' are easily confused over urban myths? Easy enough to do with the criminal gangs of immigrant gypsy muslim cats that roam about in their heads. ;^ )

    Next thing Dacre and the Mail will be getting took to the cleaners by a 'psychic'.

    *tears of laughter etc.*

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    More Liverpool Labour sleaze

    Are you suggesting that the rent charged isnt a market rate? If not I'm not sure where you get the sleaze allegation from.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    More Liverpool Labour sleaze

    Are you suggesting that the rent charged isnt a market rate? If not I'm not sure where you get the sleaze allegation from.
    No no - its a top arrangement - I mean taxpayers money is just money borrowed from the state right ?

    It doesn't stink at all - carry on.

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Pulpstar said:

    Most people who go to see phychics go for a laugh or to be entertained- its not a big problem really--should we go all serious and 'expose' Gypsy Lee type fortune tellers as well? Most people know its fantasy but people ,once in a while, like fantasy.

    I can just imagine some MP calling for a ban or licensing of them soon in our ridiculous licensing/regulating/nanny culture we have

    You'd like to believe that but some people don't. "Told me things she couldn't possibly know" a friend of mine said as I asked her if the lady had given her more information when she handed another £20 note...
    I had a very good and what I thought to be a very rational friend who came back from a 'fun' reading convinced she'd seen her future based on what her dead parents told her. She was simultaneously totally spooked by something she never expected and totally believing.

    I didn't even attempt to disabuse her as she was sold on it.

    I'd love to be hypnotised just to see how it feels, but I've been told that I'm a very unwilling subject who retains a tight grip even when I try to do the opposite. Guess that's another thing off my bucket list!
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Speaking of 'psychics' and other things.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9PvLgKIkqw

    Where will 'Mrs Clucksworth' strike next? Look out Dacre! :^ )

    LOL
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352

    First Prefs

    Lab 2892
    SNP 2249
    Con 823
    LD 605
    Green 412
    UKIP 235
    Ind 64
    Pirate 47

    Pirates sink:
    18 to Greens, 6 to LD, 6 to Ind, 4 to Lab, 4 to UKIP, 2 to SNP, 1 to Con. 6 Non Transferrables

    Ind Scott eliminated
    12 to Con, 12 to UKIP 10 to Lab, 10 to Greens, 5 to SNP, 5 to LD. 16 Non Transferrable

    UKIP eliminated
    67 to Con, 35 to Lab, 31 to SNP, 31 to Greens, 9 to LD. 78 Non Transferrable

    Greens eliminated
    129 to Lab, 116 to SNP, 83 to LD, 31 to Con. 112 Non transferrable

    LD eliminated
    185 to Lab, 164 to Con, 120 to SNP. 239 Non transferrable

    Con eliminated
    193 to Lab, 110 to SNP. 795 non transferrable

    Interesting answer to Charles' query earlier - Tories massive prefer Labour to SNP. Indeed everyone else does, even the "Ind Scot" supporters.

    TGOHF said:



    More Liverpool Labour sleaze - troughing the taxpayer for union cash.

    http://order-order.com/2013/06/21/bergers-trade-union-lobbyist-merry-go-round/

    "A classic case of cosy Labour sweeteners with trade union lobbyists here. According to the latest available figures Luciana Berger charges the taxpayer £1,750 per quarter for her constituency office rent. For where? Her website says that when back in Liverpool Wavertree she works out of the UCATT union’s office. That would be the same UCATT union that have generously given Labour £78,750 since 2010. Surely Luciana couldn’t possibly be bunging taxpayer money to a party donor."

    ->Nah. There are numerous Tory MPs who rent their offices from local Tory associations. I rented my office from the regional Labour Party. There's a straightforward Parliamentary procedure for renting property from anyone at all - you need to get an independent evaluation of fair rent from an estate agent, so that you're paying the same as any other tenant - neither more nor less.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:


    It doesn't stink at all - carry on.

    Are you suggesting that UCATT should be compelled to give her office space for free?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andy_JS said:

    Another Derren Brown favourite for me was when he got a person who runs a ghost train at an amusement park to have a go at riding the train himself, despite the fact that he must have been on it many times before. Brown gave him a sinister-sounding talk beforehand and then sent him on the ride. When he came out he had almost died of fright.

    That's seriously impressive suggestion to spook a ghost train carny man. I've never seen Derren convince a psychic he could tell their future - that's surely the ultimate test.

    If I had to go back and have a hobby - I wish I'd applied myself to illusions/tricks. I used to be quite good at them as a kid but didn't stick at it. There are few female magicians and if I get reincarnated - I hope to come back as one :^ )
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    well Tim and Neil, what woudl you define a suitable 'market rent' to work and hire space in a unions office? Did she have to beat off hordes of desparate accountants ,lawyers or estate agents vying for that preciosu space or was there no real market value for that space as nobody else was that interested in working in a union building---I don't know but it shows something that you immediately pour scorn on it without bothering to question the possible commerciality of it
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    It doesn't stink at all - carry on.

    Are you suggesting that UCATT should be compelled to give her office space for free?
    I think you misspelt that - its YouCat surely? ;^ )
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I don't know but it shows something that you immediately pour scorn on it without bothering to question the possible commerciality of it

    I didnt pour scorn - I asked a couple of questions. If you think that's the same as pouring scorn then maybe the original allegation wasnt up to very much at all.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anyone who enjoys a bout between Derren Brown and Richard Dawkins will enjoy this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xswt8B8-UTM one of several related videos
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I mentioned what a talented artist Derren is - if you haven't seen his stuff, it's very impressive.

    http://derrenbrown.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/2-241x300.jpg this is Michael Sheen

    Here are the others http://derrenbrown.co.uk/art/ I wish I had his eye - its photorealism crossed with caricature and very clever.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    stop being boorish and defensive Tim-its not embarrassing to try and define a market rent in terms of what a truly independant third party wouldl pay for it and the demand for it by such parties-in fact its how you actually do it
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    More Liverpool Labour sleaze

    Are you suggesting that the rent charged isnt a market rate? If not I'm not sure where you get the sleaze allegation from.
    No no - its a top arrangement - I mean taxpayers money is just money borrowed from the state right ?

    It doesn't stink at all - carry on.

    Where the constituency office is to be rented from a political party or constituency
    association
    Which of a

    - political party,

    or

    - constituency association

    is a Trades Union?

    Do you know the rules are also applied to Trades Unions?

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    its not embarrassing to try and define a market rent in terms of what a truly independant third party wouldl pay for it and the demand for it by such parties-in fact its how you actually do it

    Do you have any evidence that this is not what was actually done in this case? If not what is all the fuss about?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    Proof, as if it were needed, that hilariously dumb and inept tory spinners retain a tight grip on reality and never fall for 'urban myths'. Particularly those involving cats. ;^ )

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXM7DzeMLe4
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    renting 'associated' offices for a suposed market rent is akin to employing your wife as a PA (as many MPS do) and then saying well I only pay her the market salary for the job- Well yes technically you might but its not a good thing for the cleaning up of politics is it?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    Derren Brown is able to perform in German as well as English. He studied German and Law at Bristol University.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,422
    yes Tim I realise its not a one-off case and thats why its important to discuss the underlying way these things work rather than try to dismiss them as nothing if it involves 'your party'
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andy_JS said:

    Derren Brown is able to perform in German as well as English. He studied German and Law at Bristol University.

    Golly - imagine being his other half, I once went out with an actor and was suspicious as to when he was being genuine - living with a mentalist must be a total mind-bender when it comes to knowing what's real/isn't.

    I can see it being a rather lonely life until you found someone who really got you/couldn't be deceived.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    I mentioned what a talented artist Derren is - if you haven't seen his stuff, it's very impressive.

    http://derrenbrown.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/2-241x300.jpg this is Michael Sheen

    Here are the others http://derrenbrown.co.uk/art/ I wish I had his eye - its photorealism crossed with caricature and very clever.

    Bloody hell. Derren Brown is quite depressingly talented, isn't he? Thank God he is losing his hair, or life might seem somewhat unjust.
    There aren't many polymaths about who deserve the moniker - he does.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    edited June 2013
    One of Derren Brown's methods for putting people into a trance is by using something called a pattern-interrupt. This is where you take an action which people are used to doing as a whole sequence without thinking about the individual parts of it, such as shaking hands or tying shoes laces. What he does is to interrupt one of these actions in the middle, which confuses people for a split-second, and then you have to take advantage of that tiny period of time when a person is confused and suggestible to put them into a trance. So, for example, with the ghost train operator, he offered to shake hands and in the middle of the action held onto his hand and started putting him into a trance state. It must work because you notice Derren doing it all the time before a particular trick, event or whatever you want to call it.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Pulpstar said:

    In fact he has done the opposite and showed what power suggestion and mood influencing amongst other things can have - well it is probably the best tool we have to show people that psychics are frauds and charlatans the lot.

    I prefer this technique:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3UANEflcX0
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Miss Plato, thanks for posting that video. I think I've seen it before, but it's very interesting to hear Derren Brown describing how it works.

    Interestingly, lots of people, when presented with the symptom list for psychopathology, think they have most of the attributes of a psychopath.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    edited June 2013
    One of Derren Brown's most amazing feats was when he played about eight of the country's best chess players at the same time. He had them sitting at tables in a circular arrangement and would go round each table playing a move and then moving onto the next game.

    He was able to beat the majority of them despite not being an accomplished chess player himself.

    Unusually, he revealed how he did it afterwards, and it was incredibly clever, although of course once you know about it it doesn't seem so amazing — but that's always true when tricks are revealed. You start thinking that anyone could have thought of it, which is complete nonsense.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andy_JS said:

    One of Derren Brown's methods for putting people into a trance is by using something called a pattern-interrupt. This is where you take an action which people are used to doing as a whole sequence without thinking about the individual parts of it, such as shaking hands or tying shoes laces. What he does is to interrupt one of these actions in the middle, which confuses people for a split-second, and then you have to take advantage of that tiny period of time when a person is confused and suggestible to put them into a trance. So, for example, with the ghost train operator, he offered to shake hands and in the middle of the action held onto his hand and started putting him into a trance state. It must work because you notice Derren doing it all the time before a particular trick, event or whatever you want to call it.

    How clever. Mentalism is a real art - its technique masked with showmanship and misdirection.

    There are some great books on the subject - a few years ago [around the time The Prestige film was made] I read some more - I'd recommend this one. It's quite interested in the mechanics of illusions, and fascinating if you're into this end of how-things-work.

    Carter Beats The Devil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Beats_the_Devil

    "The 1920s was a golden age for stage magic and Charles Carter is an American stage magician at the height of his fame and powers. At the climax of his latest touring stage show, Carter invites United States President Warren G. Harding on to stage to take part in his act. In front of an amazed audience, Carter proceeds to chop the president into pieces, cut off his head, and feed him to a lion, before restoring him to health. The show is a great success, but two hours later the president is dead, and Carter finds himself the centre of some very unwelcome attention indeed.

    This novel is a fictionalised biography of Charles Joseph Carter. The main character, Carter, is followed through his career, from his first encounter with magic to his last performance. Along the way he encounters many historical figures, including fellow magicians Harry Houdini and Howard Thurston, United States President Warren G. Harding, BMW founder Max Friz, the Marx Brothers, business magnate Francis Marion "Borax" Smith, the inventor of electronic television Philo Farnsworth, and San Franciscan madams Tessie Wall and Jessie Hayman. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Beats_the_Devil
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    PM discussing the Hall vs Forrest sentences - the Judges followed the guidelines in both - the minimum for Forrest was 4 years - so given the breach of trust 5 1/2 years not excessive.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    I wouldn't have thought people who vote for a party that encourages small businesses, the self employed, low taxes etc are going to be put off by a bit of tax avoidance
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Andy_JS said:

    One of Derren Brown's most amazing feats was when he played about eight of the country's best chess players at the same time. He had them sitting at tables in a circular arrangement and would go round each table playing a move and then moving onto the next game.

    He was able to beat the majority of them despite not being an accomplished chess player himself.

    Unusually, he revealed how he did it afterwards, and it was incredibly clever, although of course once you know about it it doesn't seem so amazing — but that's always true when tricks are revealed. You start thinking that anyone could have thought of it, which is complete nonsense.

    I must look that one up - I can't play chess for toffee and haven't tried since I was about 8yrs old and was beaten by my big brother's friend in 5 moves repeatedly.

    As you say - armchairists can always spot a trick until they can't - when told they are know-alls.

    I don't know what I find most fascinating about illusions - the cunning imagination required to create them or the showmanship to execute them. Both are truly impressive.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    Well. Blimey indeed. That's a surprise of Black Swan proportions for McD's legal team as well. What a horror on so many levels.

    Guardian posters aren't very impressed with the Met and that's vs McDonald's for heavens sake...

    "Philltop

    21 June 2013 3:10pm
    Recommended
    256

    I wonder if MacDonalds can now sue the Met as the libel was committed in the course of his duties.

    The inedible in pursuit of the unspeakable"

    or as this poster notes

    PaulTreloar

    21 June 2013 3:16pm
    Recommend
    187

    The longest civil trial in English history was triggered by material written by a serving policemen? Would the Met care to explain exactly how this style of undercover policing helps to prevent criminal activity, or in any way contributes to a happy and healthy society? I expect the answer will be, as usual, a deafening silence, or possibly some strenuous denials or blame shifting as is usually the case.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    isam said:

    I wouldn't have thought people who vote for a party that encourages small businesses, the self employed, low taxes etc are going to be put off by a bit of tax avoidance

    In terms of sleaze its Farage on one end of the scales and the entire europhile political class on the other. I think he'd have to be seen as worse than them for it to make a dent and being seen as worse than them is going to be very hard indeed.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,778
    edited June 2013
    "With the Labor leadership back in question the September 14 election date could be shifted. Antony Green explains exactly how and when the election date could change.

    With renewed speculation that Kevin Rudd could return as Labor leader, there has also been speculation that Julia Gillard's chosen election date of September 14 could be dumped in favour of an earlier poll.

    The timetable for an earlier election is limited by the constitution, which makes August 3 the first possible date for a House and half-Senate election."


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-10/green-polling-dates/4743932
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    The Brits & Germans on Obama's recent visit & spying revelation:

    Obama is a typical American (net)
    GB: +6
    DE: +22

    Obama gives a good image of the USA (net)
    GB: +70
    DE: +64

    Brits more relaxed about NSA spying:

    Right for NSA to access data (net)
    GB: -3
    DE: -31

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/anf6a7ml4f/YG-Archive-Obama-nuclear-NSA-cross-country-results-210613.pdf

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Cameron isolated in Europe:

    "The Dutch coalition government says the time of "ever closer union" in all EU policy areas is over."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23005499
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    OT Given that the National Archives are giving us UFO conspiracy nerds a WHOLE MONTH to read about sightings - I thought this was rather amusing

    http://i.likes-media.com/uimg/eda33c4d09ddb90cf4474c74d1273d61.600x

    Is he a Borg or a Cylon?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Cameron isolated in Europe:

    "The Dutch coalition government says the time of "ever closer union" in all EU policy areas is over."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23005499

    I wonder how Cameron's party would respond to the lofty ambition of not having ever closer union in all EU policy areas... They've had the principle of subsidiarity there since Maastricht at least, so this seems like a bit of a straw man. The substance is here:
    The Dutch letter did not call for EU treaty change, but said there were various "issues which the Netherlands believes could be left more or less entirely to member states: halting the further harmonisation of social security systems; working conditions, which should only be regulated in broad outline; no EU regulation of media pluralism; flood risk management should only be harmonised at European level for truly trans-boundary water courses; phase out the EU programmes for school milk and school fruit."
    So basically it's that there are some proposed regulations that they don't support. You could probably get a lot of agreement across Europe with the principle that there are some things the EU shouldn't be regulating any more. The hitch is that everyone will be thinking of different things, with a majority of the rest of the EU in favour of regulating each individual thing, which is why they're getting regulated in the first place...
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited June 2013
    If you're into aircraft - may I recommend my local Airbourne weekend coming up in August? It's stunning - and almost in touching distance as the aircraft come in right in front of the pier/beach road.

    We always have some insane radio DJ in an acrobat plane trying not to be sick as he's swirled all over the sea and trying to commentate on everyone else - really get an ice cream and hear him keep it together or not.

    http://www.visiteastbourne.com/airbourne/AirbourneFlying.aspx

    There are loads of tents/recruitment stands and fun things to do - this is our 20th anniversary and I've never seen a better close up and boom air display. I love Airbourne as I see the jets low flying in overhead during the whole 4 days

    "Airbourne returns in 2013 for its with what is already set to be a fantastic four days of fast jets, historic aircraft, parachute displays and so much more.

    After being voted the UK’s best free airshow for two years in a row by Airscene fans, Airbourne: Eastbourne International Airshow is back this year even bigger and better than ever, with not one but four Red Arrows displays to delight fans.

    Joining the Red Arrows, fans can look forward to more highlights from the RAF including the Lynx, Tucano and Tutor, the nostalgic Battle of Britain Memorial Flight and for fast jet fans, the resounding heavy metal of the Eurofighter Typhoon. The heavy duty, tandem rotor Chinook helicopter also returns with a demonstration of its enormous heavy lift capabilities complete with gravity defying somersaults" http://www.visiteastbourne.com/airbourne/AirbourneFlying.aspx
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    edited June 2013
    Metropolitan Railway steam loco no. 1 (Met no. 1) will be on the Epping Ongar Railway from today Friday 21st to Monday 24th and also Friday 28th to Monday July 1st. Advance Booking recommended!

    http://eorailway.co.uk/events/tube150/
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    David Singleton @david_singleton
    Job alert: I see CQC looking to hire lobbyist to boost their "reputation and accountability across Whitehall" bit.ly/11Rl3SS
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783

    phase out the EU programmes for school milk and school fruit."

    Why is there an EU program for school milk & fruit?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I take the point that an uneven economic recovery may not work for the Tories in the midlands or northwest, but even within these regions there will be differences. Is the economic recovery in Warrington there even if not in Merseyside?

    In many ways we do not have a North South divide so much as a Urban/suburban one. How these microeconomies work out in voting terms would be interesting.

    The 1/10 with negative equity will mean that plenty will be relieved by George's boost to housing scheme.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    phase out the EU programmes for school milk and school fruit."

    Why is there an EU program for school milk & fruit?
    I'd imagine it's a not-particularly-well-concealed farm subsidy, although there may be some genuine health / learning-boosting nutrition benefits.
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    Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    edited June 2013
    Can I just clarify, one in seven mortgage borrowers in negative equity, not one in seven home owners.

    Considering about 30% own outright, there is a bit of a difference.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/jun/20/negative-equity-north-south-divide
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Speaking of farm subsidies, a big win for gridlock.

    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/houses-rejection-farm-bill-leaves-few-options
    The five-year, half-trillion dollar measure would have expanded some subsidies while saving about $4 billion annually overall, including a 3 percent cut in the almost $80 billion-a-year food stamp program. The vote Thursday was 234-195 against the bill, with 62 Republicans voting "no," arguing it was too expensive.

    ...

    In addition to conservative opposition, the bill also suffered from lack of Democratic support necessary for traditional bipartisan passage. Only 24 Democrats voted in favor of the legislation after many said the food stamp cuts could remove as many as 2 million needy recipients from the rolls. The addition of the optional state work requirements by Republican amendment just before final passage turned away many remaining Democratic votes.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,842
    On topic, the Tories out-polled Labour in the recent County Council elections in both Morecambe and Lunesdale and Ribble South, so maybe Henry G's whole premise is wrong?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E#gid=0
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Just mention Farage on PB and some begin to froth at the mouth.
    The article below may help cool their rabid indignation:
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100222962/farages-offshore-trust-is-none-of-our-business/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited June 2013
    Rubio faces possible primary challenge in 2016

    In an interview on Washington, D.C.’s WMAL 105.9 FM “Mornings on the Mall” radio show on Wednesday, former Florida Republican Rep. Allen West inidcated that he might be open to challenging Sen. Marco Rubio in a 2016 GOP Senate primary.

    “That’s a pretty heavy lift, because you’re talking about running against a sitting senator, and then, of course, that creates that schism that the other side would love to see happen,” West, who has ruled out a 2014 run, told host Larry O’Connor.

    West, who said he wanted to “serve this country in whatever capacity I possibly can,” explained that his frustration with Rubio stemmed from the possible GOP presidential candidate’s support of the current immigration reform bill, which is currently being debated in the Senate.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited June 2013
    Crick; You set up the trust in an offshore tax haven

    Farage; The Isle of Man...Is that offshore?

    What a hypocritical crock of shit that man is........
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    EdmundinTokyo - Well Dean would make a tasty appetiser for Hillary before the main event!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    Roger said:

    Crick; You set up the trust in an offshore tax haven

    Farage; The Isle of Man...Is that offshore?

    What a hypocritical crock of shit that man is........

    "What a hypocritical crock of shit..."

    After your contrasting comments on Romanian criminals in Paris & Romford you should be an expert on that subject

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2013
    This sounds ominous.. the words "not fit for purpose" spring to mind.

    "However, Amanda Pollard, a former CQC inspector who left after she became disillusioned, warns there may be more scandals ahead."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23010565
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    MikeK said:

    Just mention Farage on PB and some begin to froth at the mouth.
    The article below may help cool their rabid indignation:
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100222962/farages-offshore-trust-is-none-of-our-business/

    Show me any self employed businessman that hasn't tried to dodge a bit of tax and I'll show you either a liar or someone who isn't working for themselves anymore

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    On topic

    “Diverging regional house prices"

    Standard & Poor report the North West has a higher proportion of residential property owners with low equity than elsewhere in the UK.

    This may be the case but to claim it is caused by "diverging regional house prices" appears unfounded in fact.

    The ONS House Price Index shows that property prices in the North West have not grown noticeably less than in other UK regions. Consult the index below:
    ONS House Price Index - England's Regions                  

    N.E. N.W. York. E.M. W.M. East Lon. S.E. S.W.

    1997 Q1 74.1 n/a 75.8 62.8 63.0 49.5 53.0 55.4 54.9
    2002 Feb 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
    2007 Oct 220.2 209.2 214.5 192.1 185.4 166.2 171.0 164.9 180.7
    2010 Jun 212.7 197.1 197.3 181.8 175.0 160.7 171.1 161.6 170.3
    2013 Apr 197.9 187.2 191.9 176.5 171.9 162.2 193.3 164.2 168.8
    Apart from Yorkshire, London and the North East, house prices in the North West have grown faster than in other regions since 2002 and the region's growth rates are above the average for England as a whole.

    Perhaps Henry G. (or Standard & Poor) have attributed the wrong causes to the innate sense of grievance emanating from Liverpool.

    Does any PBer have a better explanation for why these Merseysiders are so angry?

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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,842
    Plato said:

    Well. Blimey indeed. That's a surprise of Black Swan proportions for McD's legal team as well. What a horror on so many levels.

    Guardian posters aren't very impressed with the Met and that's vs McDonald's for heavens sake...

    "Philltop

    21 June 2013 3:10pm
    Recommended
    256

    I wonder if MacDonalds can now sue the Met as the libel was committed in the course of his duties.

    The inedible in pursuit of the unspeakable"

    or as this poster notes

    PaulTreloar

    21 June 2013 3:16pm
    Recommend
    187

    The longest civil trial in English history was triggered by material written by a serving policemen? Would the Met care to explain exactly how this style of undercover policing helps to prevent criminal activity, or in any way contributes to a happy and healthy society? I expect the answer will be, as usual, a deafening silence, or possibly some strenuous denials or blame shifting as is usually the case.
    Perhaps this explains why the Green Party are so crap at campaigning - all their best activists have gone back to traffic duty?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    I see Labour are calling for so called "hate preachers" to be banned from entering the UK to speak at a rally...

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-urged-ban-anti-islam-campaigners-1976749
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    tim said:

    @Avery



    Build baby, build.

    Er, unless Hilary Benn, he of NIMBYLabour, gives you the right of veto. You should do something about that.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    tim said:

    @Avery



    Build baby, build.

    Er, unless Hilary Benn, he of NIMBYLabour, gives you the right of veto. You should do something about that.
    New Towns John, bypass the NIMBY's
    You'll have noticed the consensus from Boris to Miliband on housing I'm sure, don't get stuck in the past with subsidy junky Subprime George sucking on the taxpayers housing benefit teat forever.
    Not going to happen, son, not in a million years, and you know it. Ed hasn't given even a hint that's his agenda. And think through to-day's offering that developers who don't implement existing planning permissions will be penalized. Surely even he knows that such permissions are time limited anyway and will have to be renewed after only a relatively short period. If we are to believe Benn, when these permissions have to be renewed, communities will have the right of veto! So even less housing....Yeah, great thinking.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    @tim - I'm a toblerone junkie if truth be told but we'll keep that to ourselves.

    As for checking in for my subsidy detox, I'll make an appointment sometime in 2018, towards the end of the second term Dave-led government. You'll have probably surpassed 2 million posts by then.
This discussion has been closed.