politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and EdM getting positive approval numbers for first time
Although the voting numbers don’t have much change the leader approval numbers could provide good pointers. Of the seven who took part last night only Clegg had negative ratings.
Comments
-
This is no change on the last Survation.0
-
All leaders approval numbers are up are they not?0
-
Second
0 -
Apart from leader's ratings. Good for all leaders, even better for Ed.Purseybear said:This is no change on the last Survation.
0 -
and yet the overall vote intent stays unchanged:
"Voters’ intentions were largely unchanged from 10 days ago, with Labour two points clear of the Tories by 33% to 31%."0 -
Only a few weeks more for these numbers to hold and Ed is PM.0
-
Clear skew in leader's ratings, to the extent it's almost like a different question to usual.0
-
Best for Farage, up 14.3 points (from -8.1 to +6.2), and Nicola (up 19 points, although she wasn't particularly well known outside Scotland before the debates so that's perhaps not a fair comparison).RobD said:
Apart from leader's ratings. Good for all leaders, even better for Ed.Purseybear said:This is no change on the last Survation.
0 -
What are you possibly suggesting of this Daily Mirror poll :-)Grandiose said:Clear skew in leader's ratings, to the extent it's almost like a different question to usual.
0 -
Ahh the short campaign where the people were meant to see Ed and run for the hills.
Turns out the actually think he isnt all that bad ;-)0 -
Ed is no longer crap according to voters.
But that hasn't shifted many votes.0 -
You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means:
"The Conservatives and Labour have come under pressure over claims they could be forced into a post-election deal with the SNP or UKIP, respectively."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-321765170 -
I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.0 -
Cameron hiding behind the women according to Labour.
Seriously the man is looking jaded by the day.
The country may well opt for a fresh face in a few weeks` time.0 -
Really think we need to get past Easter & see how it all shakes out. Toooooo soon to make judgments right now.
Strange campaign this one in that there's gonna be 2 or 3 big interruptions - Easter, May bank holiday and Royal baby [presumably]0 -
As silly as it was for the Tories to be so reliant on that one factor working out exactly that way, as it has been their only hope to somehow turn things around I can guess it is understandable they cling to it still.IOS said:Ahh the short campaign where the people were meant to see Ed and run for the hills.
0 -
EINLCATVIPM doesnt look right thoughSpeedy said:Ed is no longer crap according to voters.
But that hasn't shifted many votes.0 -
With Survation's track record we can safely conclude that the Tories are well clear if Labour are only two in front.0
-
"I would remind everyone the Coalition Economic record is decidedly pitiful over the last 5 years based on mathematical analysis.
In 1996, in last recession under John Major Conservative government the unemployment rate was 8.5%. When the Labour government came into government in 1997 it was 7.5%.
During the height of Credit Crunch, under Gordon Brown leadership is only reached 8%. Therefore, the Credit Crunch can be viewed as typical UK recession, in terms of employment. The length recession can viewed, on the objective facts and empirical evidence as prolonged recovery caused by the foolish Austerity Program of cuts to governmental expenditures, which delayed the recovery, until George Osborne pursued policy options akin to a return to a Credit Expansionary Bubble in assets, primarily focused on property assets.
Over the last 5 years, the Trade Union negotiated pay cuts to salaries, below the rate of RPI (inflation) of about 6%. These pay cuts allowed more people to be employed, simply by the variables of businesses hiring more stuff at the same expenditure on salaries as they did at the height of recession in 2008.
As an example, 29.4 million people are in employment, whose wages are lowered by 6.% via deflation of salaries compared to Retail Price Index (inflation). This allows more people to be employed, this allows business or the government to employ an extra 1.764 million people for the same total expenditure on salaries as the did in compared to 2008 or 2010. This largely explains why the tax income today is remaining as bad as it is in most recessions during the post war era.
1,764,000 divide by 5 (years) divided by 365 (days) equals 966 jobs created each day over the Coalition governments term in public office. Everyone is poorer, and it pays considerably less to be employment then when the Labour Party was in government.
Any idiot can cut wages and hire extra staff, but this is not why people elect political parties to govern a country - they elect a government to be paid more wages from their current employment. This is not governance, it meaningless governance, which delivers nothing (a bit like diet drinks, zero calories, yet has the aesthetic aspects of being nice to taste), it massive con-job on the UK electorate. "
Posted by victimfromsomethingorother in the last thread
Great post victim from the last thread. Excellent to read something so intelligent from the site.0 -
Well the only positive thing from this poll for Labour is that the Tories can no longer use the "Miliband is an evil disaster blah blah blah" to scare the voters, likewise with the SNP.
UKIP should also be happy that the "vote UKIP, get Ed" will have less potency.0 -
Chesnut
Fairly sure that survation have a history of under estimating Labour.0 -
It's a pity the DK/have not heard of figures are combined. I'd like to know how many of those asked had not heard of David Cameron the Prime Minister.0
-
I kinda agree with you. He does look a bit flat but wondering if its deliberate? LIke he's trying to be the branch bank manager, kinda Major like. Or maybe Camerons just like that - pragmatist not idealist. Lacks the passion but was the right man for the job. Kinda fits their meme of competence over chaos so probably deliberate.SMukesh said:
Seriously the man is looking jaded by the day.
The country may well opt for a fresh face in a few weeks` time.
Risky strategy. If Labour had a leader like Blair think they'd waltz this election.0 -
Anyway - Ed has to more opportunities to drag his ratings up.
Remember - brand Labour smashes brand Tory.0 -
Some are up by more than others thoughFrancisUrquhart said:All leaders approval numbers are up are they not?
2 weeks to approval ratings CROSSOVER at this rate!0 -
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.0 -
Holiday season aberration.0
-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024610/Fresh-embarrassment-Miliband-plus-sized-style-blogger-signed-high-profile-support-letter-ordinary-workers-appears-change-mind-hours-later.html
Is there anybody left on Labour's letter that is actually a Labour supporter, who isn't a party activist, hasn't used ZHC, isn't a benefits cheat, and who hasn't' now swapped to supporting a different party...0 -
My memory resets every 5 days, it keeps things more exciting.felix said:
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.
More generally, until such time as the Tories have a clear lead in the polls, a Labour win looks likely, and time is running out. Believe me, I want Cameron to remain as PM, best of the options available, but still cannot see it. Maybe Ed and Lab will suffer in the opposition debate and that will change the narrative significantly.
0 -
Evening all
Well, I didn't watch the debates last night but the comment on here and elsewhere tells me all I need to know. No one was especially good or especially bad - baseline politics if you like.
This was never going to be the decisive event billed by so many - after the events of 2010, Cameron was determined that IF he was going to have to debate it would be very early in the campaign so the Conservative machine would have time to respond to any surprises.
The QT event on the 30th is, in my view, much more important. It may surprise most on here but for very many people the election isn't on their mental radar - it's five weeks away and that for many is an eternity. Seven days before Polling Day is a different story and I wonder if there's a correlation between postal voting and clarity on for whom to vote.
The uptick in approval numbers is often seen after these debates - just to see political leaders debate in a relatively civilised manner is a positive antithesis to the weekly bear pit of PMQs and the whole Westminster goldfish bowl.
The other thought I have is this is going to be a long campaign and feel like one with saturated television coverage and the omnipresent Twitter and rolling news. How long before people disengage thus undermining the effectiveness of messages and how long before people grow weary of the sniping and point-scoring ?0 -
Heading into town. Just come back to the point - gotta wait n' see with these polls esp over an easter w'end. Got a feeling, no more than hunch, the tories are pulling away.0
-
You can make an assumption based on the other less known party leaders, as the 4 major party leaders have a DK/Have not heard of about 4-7% while the others range from 17-32%, we can assume that the people who do not know David Cameron is PM is extremely small if non-existent.kle4 said:It's a pity the DK/have not heard of figures are combined. I'd like to know how many of those asked had not heard of David Cameron the Prime Minister.
0 -
A nice poll for Ed, but probably best not to draw many conclusions from it. Presumably there'll be shedloads over the weekend.0
-
I would assume so (I recall an old HIGNFY episode with Ken Livingstone quoting such a stat, with something like 97% knew who Tony Blair was and 77% who Ken was).Speedy said:
You can make an assumption based on the other less known party leaders, as the 4 major party leaders have a DK/Have not heard of about 4-7% while the others range from 17-32%, we can assume that the people who do not know David Cameron is PM is extremely small if non-existent.kle4 said:It's a pity the DK/have not heard of figures are combined. I'd like to know how many of those asked had not heard of David Cameron the Prime Minister.
0 -
Hell YesFrancisUrquhart said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024610/Fresh-embarrassment-Miliband-plus-sized-style-blogger-signed-high-profile-support-letter-ordinary-workers-appears-change-mind-hours-later.html
Is there anybody left on Labour's letter that is actually a Labour supporter, who isn't a party activist, hasn't used ZHC, isn't a benefits cheat, and who hasn't' now swapped to supporting a different party...
0 -
Is it surely only the PPEs running both parties who think any voter will be influenced by these letters (and some of the Tory signatories also seem to have developed cold feet).FrancisUrquhart said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024610/Fresh-embarrassment-Miliband-plus-sized-style-blogger-signed-high-profile-support-letter-ordinary-workers-appears-change-mind-hours-later.html
Is there anybody left on Labour's letter that is actually a Labour supporter, who isn't a party activist, hasn't used ZHC, isn't a benefits cheat, and who hasn't' now swapped to supporting a different party...0 -
Hmmmmmmm.
Pessimist hat on, I fear this may be Labour's last poll lead of the campaign.0 -
Hasn`t Crosby predicted crossover after Easter?
Perhaps,he meant Leaders` ratings.0 -
I think it's just a box ticking exercise to get them out more than anything else, it's just one of the things we expect to see at some point.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it surely only the PPEs running both parties who think any voter will be influenced by these letters (and some of the Tory signatories also seem to have developed cold feet).FrancisUrquhart said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024610/Fresh-embarrassment-Miliband-plus-sized-style-blogger-signed-high-profile-support-letter-ordinary-workers-appears-change-mind-hours-later.html
Is there anybody left on Labour's letter that is actually a Labour supporter, who isn't a party activist, hasn't used ZHC, isn't a benefits cheat, and who hasn't' now swapped to supporting a different party...0 -
As i said before, I think the dick waving letter signing is nonsense.DecrepitJohnL said:
Is it surely only the PPEs running both parties who think any voter will be influenced by these letters (and some of the Tory signatories seem to have developed cold feet).FrancisUrquhart said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024610/Fresh-embarrassment-Miliband-plus-sized-style-blogger-signed-high-profile-support-letter-ordinary-workers-appears-change-mind-hours-later.html
Is there anybody left on Labour's letter that is actually a Labour supporter, who isn't a party activist, hasn't used ZHC, isn't a benefits cheat, and who hasn't' now swapped to supporting a different party...
However, Tories original letter has held up, despite what the Guardian reported. One person from the 17 extra people who "signed" it the next day, said no he didn't want to seem to support anybody.
The second case was Ladbrokes. Their chief signed it before he left and the new guy said they didn't people to think Ladbrokes was political, but that doesn't change the fact the top bod under this same is a supporter.
The only thing you can get from Labour's letter just gives you a glimpse of an unorganized rush to get something down. They didn't check the people who they were using.
But it doesn't really change much, as Tories already much more thought of as business friendly, so it isn't like they got 1000 NHS doctors to come out and sign a letter saying Labour would be terrible for the NHS.0 -
Evening all.
I think the toggle button is broke, it only shows UKIP movement – If readily to hand, what are the changes from the last Survation poll pls.
0 -
I think the toggle button is working, and the changes are nil.SimonStClare said:Evening all.
I think the toggle button is broke, it only shows UKIP movement – If readily to hand, what are the changes from the last Survation poll pls.
0 -
Perhaps it is the politics which is broken. It won't do as it's told.Ishmael_X said:
I think the toggle button is working, and the changes are nil.SimonStClare said:Evening all.
I think the toggle button is broke, it only shows UKIP movement – If readily to hand, what are the changes from the last Survation poll pls.0 -
After every good poll for the Tories there is so much mutual back slapping here- how many people mentioned the 37% figure last night? Labour do pathetically little on pbCOM to ramp up their team, and what they do it gets called trolling.felix said:
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.0 -
Rods super computer had fired up no Labour leads by this point in the campaign.
What more do the press have to fire against Ed? They have shot their load and yet - and yet - he only just now trails Cameron.0 -
What could possibly go wrong on this thread......0
-
This is true, tbf. For all the shit us PBLabourites got for us getting overexcited last weekend, the PBTories don't exactly stop from jizzing themselves when they get a good poll.tyson said:
After every good poll for the Tories there is so much mutual back slapping here- how many people mentioned the 37% figure last night? Labour do pathetically little on pbCOM to ramp up their team, and what they do it gets called trolling.felix said:
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.0 -
As I said, last night the biggest winners last night were Nicola and Lynton Crosby. Ed has had Labour's left flank opened up and Dave will have united a lot of the fiscally conservative vote last night, especially since Farage played a core vote strategy.
Whatever the Tories are paying Crosby they should double it today.0 -
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.0 -
What's more, it can be over a poll which shows a tie or even Lab still marginally ahead, on the basis that obviously that means on the day the Tories will be 4-6 ahead or something.Danny565 said:
This is true, tbf. For all the shit us PBLabourites got for us getting overexcited last weekend, the PBTories don't exactly stop from jizzing themselves when they get a good poll.tyson said:
After every good poll for the Tories there is so much mutual back slapping here- how many people mentioned the 37% figure last night? Labour do pathetically little on pbCOM to ramp up their team, and what they do it gets called trolling.felix said:
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.
At least Lab people seem to get excited only over retaining actual leads.
0 -
I wasn't happy with him making a strong point about this, but it seems he has a point:
http://order-order.com/2015/04/03/nigel-farage-is-right-about-health-tourism/#_@/Tm-fpdNTzM7mFg0 -
Interesting...
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ · 25m 25 minutes ago
Almost half of all Tory voters (47%) and two-thirds of UKIP voters (64%) support Miliband's clampdown on zero hours contracts0 -
Thanks – I wonder if this zero movement will be replicated with all the others pollsters.Ishmael_X said:
I think the toggle button is working, and the changes are nil.SimonStClare said:Evening all.
I think the toggle button is broke, it only shows UKIP movement – If readily to hand, what are the changes from the last Survation poll pls.
0 -
I crunched the numbers from last night's YouGov. Based on people who voted in 2010 Labour score 32% and the Tories are on 35%. Labour are relying on 2010 DNVs and who knows how many of them will turn up on the day. So even with more favourable numbers with 2010 DNVs Labour are behind and without them they are further behind. It will be interesting to see where the polls settle next week once Easter has passed.Danny565 said:Hmmmmmmm.
Pessimist hat on, I fear this may be Labour's last poll lead of the campaign.0 -
Need I say 'basil' or 'EICIPM'?Danny565 said:
This is true, tbf. For all the shit us PBLabourites got for us getting overexcited last weekend, the PBTories don't exactly stop from jizzing themselves when they get a good poll.tyson said:
After every good poll for the Tories there is so much mutual back slapping here- how many people mentioned the 37% figure last night? Labour do pathetically little on pbCOM to ramp up their team, and what they do it gets called trolling.felix said:
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.
And what's wrong with being happy or excited about a good poll. PBLefties should live a little and enjoy their good fortunes too!0 -
Max!
LOL - Labours left flank opened up! have you seen what the Greens are on in this poll?
Labour was getting a kicking in Scotland before this debate - in fact all its done is make a Labour / SNP coalition more appealing to English voters.
Crosby is toxic for the Tories.0 -
Fits the idea that UKIP are not just exTory.Carola said:Interesting...
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ · 25m 25 minutes ago
Almost half of all Tory voters (47%) and two-thirds of UKIP voters (64%) support Miliband's clampdown on zero hours contracts0 -
RobD said:
Fits the idea that UKIP are not just exTory.Carola said:Interesting...
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ · 25m 25 minutes ago
Almost half of all Tory voters (47%) and two-thirds of UKIP voters (64%) support Miliband's clampdown on zero hours contracts
Guess everyone will be 'clamping down' by tomorrow.0 -
Nobody outside of a tiny number people know or care who Crosby is. It is like Ed having Tom Baldwin and all his baggage. When a picture of Tom having a dust up Oliver was tweeted last night, most people seemed to think John Terry had turned up.IOS said:
Crosby is toxic for the Tories.
Most don't even know who are ministers / shadow ministers outside the the top 4-5.
0 -
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.0 -
Francis
I don't mean the public don't like Crosby - therefore = toxic for the Tories. Just that his negativity doesn't work in the UK.
Pick a fight with Tim Montgomery on this as he points this out.0 -
I wont waste much time with Survation in future.0
-
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.0 -
Keep saying that and maybe you will believe it.IOS said:Max!
LOL - Labours left flank opened up! have you seen what the Greens are on in this poll?
Labour was getting a kicking in Scotland before this debate - in fact all its done is make a Labour / SNP coalition more appealing to English voters.
Crosby is toxic for the Tories.0 -
People always say negative campaigning, its bad, it doesn't work...then you look at Scottish Indy Referendum and even last GE (Labour went very negative and managed well in some areas with the fear factor, and it certainly dented Cameron). I don't like it as a tactic, I want to hear positive visions from all parties, but it appears to work.IOS said:Francis
I don't mean the public don't like Crosby - therefore = toxic for the Tories. Just that his negativity doesn't work in the UK.
Pick a fight with Tim Montgomery on this as he points this out.0 -
How many 2010 DNV's were new voters or students at the time and how many have now decided that they OUGHT to vote?MaxPB said:
I crunched the numbers from last night's YouGov. Based on people who voted in 2010 Labour score 32% and the Tories are on 35%. Labour are relying on 2010 DNVs and who knows how many of them will turn up on the day. So even with more favourable numbers with 2010 DNVs Labour are behind and without them they are further behind. It will be interesting to see where the polls settle next week once Easter has passed.Danny565 said:Hmmmmmmm.
Pessimist hat on, I fear this may be Labour's last poll lead of the campaign.
Somehow.
0 -
Since the clampdown on zero hours is politically for the benefit of the poor it would certainly be more popular with UKIP than with the Tories.RobD said:
Fits the idea that UKIP are not just exTory.Carola said:Interesting...
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ · 25m 25 minutes ago
Almost half of all Tory voters (47%) and two-thirds of UKIP voters (64%) support Miliband's clampdown on zero hours contracts0 -
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
0 -
Seems like wishful thinking.OldKingCole said:
How many 2010 DNV's were new voters or students at the time and how many have now decided that they OUGHT to vote?MaxPB said:
I crunched the numbers from last night's YouGov. Based on people who voted in 2010 Labour score 32% and the Tories are on 35%. Labour are relying on 2010 DNVs and who knows how many of them will turn up on the day. So even with more favourable numbers with 2010 DNVs Labour are behind and without them they are further behind. It will be interesting to see where the polls settle next week once Easter has passed.Danny565 said:Hmmmmmmm.
Pessimist hat on, I fear this may be Labour's last poll lead of the campaign.
Somehow.0 -
True.kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
When is the next poll due?0 -
0
-
Changes on previous weeks Survation Mirror poll Con -1,Lab NC,LD +1, UKIP NC ,Green NC,0
-
Never seen a more meh poll, but knock yourself out over it if you want to. The 37% figure is a bit of a milestone on the other hand. And I wouldn't talk about last night - never seen so much toys out of the pram nastiness as we got from some of the dimmer lefties at the abject inadequacy of 'ard ed's performance in the debate.tyson said:
After every good poll for the Tories there is so much mutual back slapping here- how many people mentioned the 37% figure last night? Labour do pathetically little on pbCOM to ramp up their team, and what they do it gets called trolling.felix said:
It's like none of the Labour trolls on here remember last Saturday's Milibounce. Sigh....kle4 said:I'm telling you, when people see more of Ed, they find he is not as bad as they have been told and they like him more as a result.
I assume Clegg's are still negative as they were coming from such a low base to begin with.
Labour still on course for a win. Not even the expected shake up from holidays and debates can derail that it seems.
0 -
Francis
It works depending on what you want to achieve. If you are trying to stop something - like the referendum - then yeah it can work.
If you are trying to build your first majority in the country for 23 years then - no it doesn't!0 -
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=15ca1e64f5&e=50c0187e78
It's actually UKIP that is plus 1 not the L/Dems
LAB 33% (NC); CON 31% (NC); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 9% (NC); SNP 5% (NC); GRE 3% (-1); OTH 1% (NC)0 -
Bank holiday polling should be ignored really (and that will be the case if the Tories get some good polls over the weekend too)0
-
Fair enough. It might explain my unshakable level of certainty in a Lab plurality though.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.0 -
That it only happens in an alternate reality?kle4 said:
Fair enough. It might explain my unshakable level of certainty in a Lab plurality though.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
0 -
That in every alternate reality I have seen, that aspect remains unchangedRobD said:
That it only happens in an alternate reality?kle4 said:
Fair enough. It might explain my unshakable level of certainty in a Lab plurality though.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each. 0 -
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.
0 -
Survation tend to show changes based on the un-rounded numbers.rogerh said:Changes on previous weeks Survation Mirror poll Con -1,Lab NC,LD +1, UKIP NC ,Green NC,
0 -
Labour and Conservatives tied on immigration. (Immigration is the most important issue p.19)chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
"Which party do you trust most on each of the following issues? Base: All Respondents
Immigration"
UKIP 37.5%, Lab 17.1%, Con 16.9%, LD 7.9%
p.22 table 19
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
0 -
Mike
Anyone might think that - and how he dealt with his brother did kinda give us a hint - he actually really wants to be PM.
Not so sure you can say the same as Cameron.0 -
He certainly wasn't prepared for Clegg to demand an apology on how Labour trashed the economy, nor was he prepared for Cameron's mention of mid-Staffs, because he didn't answer either point.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.
He is a joke.0 -
If there were no debates, we wouldn't have heard the end of the fact that there were no debates. Having them early mitigates their effect, somewhat.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.0 -
I'm still not sure about Miliband's media strategy though. Steve Richards makes the point that Miliband has kept a low profile most of the time and put huge importance on the debates. Time will tell whether it works but what if Cameron had stared down the TV producers and said no debates? Miliband would have spent ages preparing for nothing, allowing his enemies in the media to ridicule him whilst he stays out of the limelight. There's an argument for doing that when you've just been ejected from office and in the wake of a huge financial crisis but it's rather unconventional. Ed's media performances have been okay but even last night it was only 7m watching.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.0 -
Not answering a point does not necessarily mean he was not prepared. Perhaps the lack of a response was the answer he had prepared for those eventualities, if he could not think of a better one. Perhaps not, but in any case, not being prepared for every possibility does not I think take away that overall he came across as very well practiced (a bit too much even) and in no conceivable way the joke of a human being some think he is or thought people would see him as.nigel4england said:
He certainly wasn't prepared for Clegg to demand an apology on how Labour trashed the economy, nor was he prepared for Cameron's mention of mid-Staffs, because he didn't answer either point.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.
He is a joke.0 -
Yet 3 out OF 4 polls had him winner.nigel4england said:
He certainly wasn't prepared for Clegg to demand an apology on how Labour trashed the economy, nor was he prepared for Cameron's mention of mid-Staffs, because he didn't answer either point.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.
He is a joke.
Do you ever think it might be you?
0 -
Ed also have outperformed amongst the key swing voters in both debates.
0 -
And 7.5 million is a hell of a lot when you consider how few swing voters it takes to swing 20 marginal seats...0
-
"The Conservative Party is more on the side of wealthy people" +65.8% !!!!!
p.41, table 38.
Con 34%, Lab 91%, LD 72%, UKIP 76%0 -
Indeed. He had a good night - however, it could have been better.bigjohnowls said:
Yet 3 out OF 4 polls had him winner.nigel4england said:
He certainly wasn't prepared for Clegg to demand an apology on how Labour trashed the economy, nor was he prepared for Cameron's mention of mid-Staffs, because he didn't answer either point.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.
He is a joke.
Do you ever think it might be you?
Bottom line is that he exceeded expectations and that's why Cameron is running scared...0 -
That is no surprise for me, Miliband is forced to use his brain to counterbalance his physical deficiencies, that is how he managed to rise so high and may even become PM.MikeSmithson said:
That is spot on. The debates have given EdM a level of exposure that have been a godsend to the red team. Cameron should not have agreed to even this limited programme.RobD said:
Unless you are able to enter alternate dimensions, there is no way to tell what this Survation would have been had there not been a debate!kle4 said:
But...but the debates are bad because they will have too much of an impact. We were told.Speedy said:
Not many changes either in Scotland or Wales in the VI subsamples, so that's no impact even on a regional level.chestnut said:http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
Survation data tables. Nothing much to see. The usual high number of Con-UKIP switchers we see in their online polls. Small amount of tactical switching to the Tories at constituency level.
I look forward to that sarcasm biting me in the behind when the next poll shows Lab and Con on 29 each.
What struck me about last night was just how well prepared he was. He knew what was at stake and put the graft in.0 -
Do people over estimate the importance of the press?
Yes - they still are important but *nothing* like they used to be. I mean the numbers are way down on 1992 and there is literally an infinitive number of other sources of information now.
PB did not exist in 1992!0 -
Nige was stronger on immigration than Ed was on the NHS or Dave was on the economy.
The other leaders still won't tell it like it is (for intra-EU movement and no one believes the "free to move not free to claim" line) and every time they won't, Nige gets stronger.
Which is just as well for Nige because he was dire up until that point.
Which means?
Which means that 17-18% ain't voting for a one-trick pony.
Ed was looking (and doing) great in hedge fund attire, although his straight-to-camera technique was irritating (I expected him at any point to say: "Viewer, I married him." about one NHS doctor or other) while Cam seemed happy to let others be his attack dog.
For me, Cam didn't push hard enough on mid-Staffs and his fear-factor on the economy wasn't as take-no-prisonerish as I had wanted; Ed was far from incompetent, he could be our PM; Nick regained some of his first debate magic; Nige was limited; and the others had no right to be there.
0 -
Well what did you expect?anotherDave said:"The Conservative Party is more on the side of wealthy people" +65.8% !!!!!
p.41, table 38.
Con 34%, Lab 91%, LD 72%, UKIP 76%0
