I think the greatest effect that will arise from these sessions is Miliband shoring up his core vote, in England.
The era of him risking shedding a big part of his base to the Greens is probably over. That, and increased Labour turnout, may help him swipe a few more marginals.
Anecdotally I think that's right. We had two rain-soaked canvasses today, one in a posh ward, where virtually nobody was changing their previous stance, and one in a WWC ward, where there was a trickle of previous ex-Labour doubtfuls firming up, mostly from UKIP's previous limited inroads (typical comment: "I think they've been useful in shaking things up but they're a one-trick pony"). The Greens have never been a problem in this marginal - I thought they might be, but it's not turned out that way so far. One voter said she was definitely not voting, and it struck me that it's the first time I've heard that explicitly for a couple of weeks. High turnout after all?
FPT GeoffM: I agree with you that assisted dying should be legal, with safeguards to avoid it being done in a fleeting bad moment.
If I lived in a Labour/Tory marginal I'd probably vote Labour. However if you canvassed me I'd probably tell you I was going to vote Green or stay at home on the basis of your not supporting PR, Ed not being very convincing etc. However in the privacy of the voting booth I'd probably do what's needed to stop the Tories.
And while we are at it Sunil Prasannan, my vegetarian comrade. What does ELBOW stand for?
Sorry to but in, but Electoral Leader Board of the Week, and EICIPM means Ed Is Crap is PM.
Can someone explain Basil the squirrel to me, I don't get that one!
A certain poster whose name escapes me noticed that the PB Tories only wanted to discuss polling when it looked good for them. When a strong poll came out for Labour suddenly the conversation turned to the weather, or whatever. The squirrel reference is to, I think, the film Up where the dogs get distracted every so often by squirrels - e.g. they point at squirrels rather than discuss uncomfortable facts.
The poster also ridiculed the fact that crossover (tory leads in the polls) was repeatedly predicted but still hasn't consistently emerged. Basil would normally turn up and have to "move the goalposts" to his annoyance.
Bit sad to follow this stuff but I do find the quirks of this site entertaining
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
Could someone good at maths or betting (or preferably both) tell me how I should approach the Sporting Index market on 300-up seats? Surely the Conservatives are a clear sell at 6 - or am I missing something very obvious?
I see the SNP are now up to 42-44. I'm starting to contemplate closing my buy on this, but not yet I think.
It's what financial markets call an option.Your max win is 6 and your max loss is 350 (eek!). You can price it by assigning a probability to each outcome and multiplying the potential gains or losses by those probabilities (and this is true of pretty much all similar contracts).
Perhaps an easier way to consider it though is just consider 3 events Tories 300 or less, Tories overall majority, or Tories 'thumping majority' You can get the market's view of the middle one from betfair - about 12.5%, and the 300 or less thing is perhaps 75%, with the thumping majority maybe having a 1% chance. So you get 6*0.70 - 19 * 0.125 - 69 *0.01 - and broadly that suggests the pricing isn't far wrong.
Could someone good at maths or betting (or preferably both) tell me how I should approach the Sporting Index market on 300-up seats? Surely the Conservatives are a clear sell at 6 - or am I missing something very obvious?
I see the SNP are now up to 42-44. I'm starting to contemplate closing my buy on this, but not yet I think.
It's what financial markets call an option.Your max win is 6 and your max loss is 350 (eek!). You can price it by assigning a probability to each outcome and multiplying the potential gains or losses by those probabilities (and this is true of pretty much all similar contracts).
Perhaps an easier way to consider it though is just consider 3 events Tories 300 or less, Tories overall majority, or Tories 'thumping majority' You can get the market's view of the middle one from betfair - about 12.5%, and the 300 or less thing is perhaps 75%, with the thumping majority maybe having a 1% chance. So you get 6*0.70 - 19 * 0.125 - 69 *0.01 - and broadly that suggests the pricing isn't far wrong.
Putting my own view of the odds in, it looks like a sell to me.
I won't stress too much about the max loss of 350.
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
The SNP leader told the French Ambassador in February that she would prefer that "David Cameron remain” in Downing Street, according to an official account of their conversation seen by The Daily Telegraph
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
Obviously,the Tories leaked this. Are they getting so desperate ? Anyway, this is a breach of protocol. The Tories cannot be trusted even with a confidential meeting concerning a diplomat.
Next, Foreign governments will not trust the Brits keeping things secret.
On another note, the rise and rise of EICIPM seems unstoppable.
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
I wonder if this could have some effect? It certainly might deal a blow to her reputation as genuine and honest.
Labour needs to fight back on the SNP thing. Point out that the Tories want the SNP to get as many MPs as possible and that those posters are designed to get Scots to vote SNP. Some party of the union.
Polls say 4 did well - Cam, Mil, Far, Stur 3 did much less well - Cleg, Ben, Wood
However, people are inclined to say their own party won. And Cam and Mil both had FAR fewer saying they won than support their parties.
Thus the winners were Far and Stur. Both Cam and Mil have cause for concern:
- Cam that Far will have turned the UKIP decline and may start rising again - Mil that Stur seen as clear winner in Scotland which will help SNP retain big lead
However, wait and see polls in 3 to 4 days time. Paxman interviews made no difference - this debate may not either.
As ever a high quality verdict from Curtice.
I think Paxo did make a difference - the big two definitely headed upwards. Of course the gap didn't change much so it wasn't noticed.
The SNP leader told the French Ambassador in February that she would prefer that "David Cameron remain” in Downing Street, according to an official account of their conversation seen by The Daily Telegraph
Sky NewsVerified account @SkyNews TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Sturgeon triumph has Labour in turmoil" #skypapers
The Telegraph so far has 30% of Labour voters saying Sturgeon won debates. A few comments ago I asked that if Miliband did so good how come Labour are still going to lose 40 seats in Scotland and how did Sturgeon supposedly win.
Meantime since it is still Easter I see that Carswell has refused three times before the cock crowed to endorse saviour's comments on Aids sufferers.
Rather annoyingly 'Mr Carswell has urged Ukip to champion the benefits of immigration and to reject “ugly nativism” – remarks that irked some of Mr Farage’s closest allies.'
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
I wonder if this could have some effect? It certainly might deal a blow to her reputation as genuine and honest.
Labour needs to fight back on the SNP thing. Point out that the Tories want the SNP to get as many MPs as possible and that those posters are designed to get Scots to vote SNP. Some party of the union.
Too late now - labour will have heavy loses in Scotland
I'm tempted to see the Sturgeon scare story in the same light as the various anti-Clegg stories run in the aftermath of the first debate five years ago. The Mail is a pro-Conservative newspaper and it will run stories guaranteed to disadvantage the opponents of the Conservative party (primarily Labour) and with a view to boosting the vote of the Conservative Party.
Fair enough, it's a free press but view what the Mail prints through that prism and it's easy to see what they are trying to do and the truth.
The Mail is terrified of the Conservatives losing power and being replaced by a Labour-SNP Government led by Ed Miliband not that I suppose it would lose a single reader if it happened and it would still be the principal "voice of the resistance" but there you go...
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
Obviously,the Tories leaked this. Are they getting so desperate ? Anyway, this is a breach of protocol. THe Tories cannot be trusted even with a confidential meeting concerning a diplomat.
Next, Foreign governments would not trust the Brits keeping things secret.
On another note, the rise and rise of EICIPM seems unstoppable.
I can't believe the Tories would leak that, it makes no sense. Are the French worried about the future of the UK and out to get the SNP? Vive l'ambassador!
Sturgeon's offer of a “progressive alternative” to “blind austerity” was welcomed by Labour candidates, meanwhile, adding substance to Tory claims that Scottish Nationalists would drag a Miliband government to the left.
Fabian Hamilton, who hopes to be re-elected as Labour MP for Leeds North East, said that there was “admiration” for the SNP leader. “A lot of my constituents have been asking me whether Labour would be less austere [than the Tories]. They don’t want austerity, and that’s people from across the social spectrum. That’s the message I’m getting on the doorstep.”
David Lammy, who is fighting to be Labour’s mayoral candidate in London, acknowledged the “appeal” of Ms Sturgeon’s message, while Steve Rotheram, Labour’s candidate in Liverpool Walton, said that the SNP leader had “performed well”. Her anti-austerity agenda was shared on Labour’s left, he added.
The SNP leader told the French Ambassador in February that she would prefer that "David Cameron remain” in Downing Street, according to an official account of their conversation seen by The Daily Telegraph
The next debate is interesting. Though Ed has a hard task, he is at least there.
That’s if Miliband takes part. There are already rumors circulating he may uncover an urgent alternative engagement, though an aide I spoke to insisted: “he’ll be there.”
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
Obviously,the Tories leaked this. Are they getting so desperate ? Anyway, this is a breach of protocol. THe Tories cannot be trusted even with a confidential meeting concerning a diplomat.
Next, Foreign governments would not trust the Brits keeping things secret.
On another note, the rise and rise of EICIPM seems unstoppable.
Why on earth would the Tories leak it-this bad news for the Tories if it was believed.
I think you are allowing your hatred for the Tories to warp your analysis.
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
I don't see that's true. The Tories were pushing Ms Sturgeon as a winner yesterday.
"Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, and Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said the “astonishing” account of her comments proves that the SNP really wants a Tory Government with few or no MPs in Scotland, allowing the party to push the case for a second independence referendum."
Labour/LD seem to be behind this. They're the two parties on track to lose seats to the SNP too.
Yeah it was to do with Owen Paterson saying the badgers moved the goalposts wasn't it
Thanks
We are a strange collection of people aren't we.
Yes, hopefully there is another Yorkshire PB meet up this year. It was hilarious meeting usernames in person. Anyway you didn't reply to my post the other day about your PB nickname for your wife?
I might being a bit thick here, but this Sturgeon story sounds like, if anything, a good thing for Labour. Surely Labour can claim that the SNP might prop up the Tories even if they say otherwise?
Don't know why the Tories are trying to help the SNP's campaign. The Nationalists are beating Labour like a drum here in Scotland as it is. Do they think that they can get some Labour voters to switch to them to keep the nasty Scots out of power at Westminster??
The SNP leader told the French Ambassador in February that she would prefer that "David Cameron remain” in Downing Street, according to an official account of their conversation seen by The Daily Telegraph
Remember the Clegg is Nazi/Communist/Islamist from the 2010 debates?
Labour's vote driven into the ground further in Scotland by the SNP whilst the English, fearful of the SNP calling the shot's move's to block SNP influence by shifting to the Conservatives.
I might being a bit thick here, but this Sturgeon story sounds like, if anything, a good thing for Labour. Surely Labour can claim that the SNP might prop up the Tories even if they say otherwise?
Yes, I don't understand why people would try and say it would help the Tories/SNP. One of the key planks of the SNP campaign to Labour voters is that they would always lean to a Labour government over a Tory one.
I have been posting for weeks and months that the SNP will get the best deal for Scotland from David Cameron and that there is more than an even chance that this is negotiable between both parties from 8th May. The telegraph story only re-affirms my view
The SNP leader told the French Ambassador in February that she would prefer that "David Cameron remain” in Downing Street, according to an official account of their conversation seen by The Daily Telegraph
Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon 6m6 minutes ago .@simon_telegraph your story is categorically, 100%, untrue...which I'd have told you if you'd asked me at any point today
Remember the Clegg is Nazi/Communist/Islamist from the 2010 debates?
Labour's vote driven into the ground further in Scotland by the SNP whilst the English, fearful of the SNP calling the shot's move's to block SNP influence by shifting to the Conservatives.
That's the plan anyway?
For some reason the Telegraph is doing the opposite, scaring SNP voters to vote Labour.
Polls say 4 did well - Cam, Mil, Far, Stur 3 did much less well - Cleg, Ben, Wood
However, people are inclined to say their own party won. And Cam and Mil both had FAR fewer saying they won than support their parties.
Thus the winners were Far and Stur.
That doesn't follow. You'd need to assume the 7m who watched were representative of the 30m who vote GB wide. Betcha 3m of them were ukip and 1m+ were scots.
Which means I'm afraid that she turns out to be a bare faced liar since publicly she has said the opposite. But I'm told by reliable sources on here that Miliband won the debate - how can Nicola, the smart clever and definitely believable oh so different SNP leader, possibly say he is not prime ministerial material?
Perhaps the French translator will be clapped into nthe bbastille?
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
I don't see that's true. The Tories were pushing Ms Sturgeon as a winner yesterday.
"Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, and Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said the “astonishing” account of her comments proves that the SNP really wants a Tory Government with few or no MPs in Scotland, allowing the party to push the case for a second independence referendum."
Labour/LD seem to be behind this. They're the two parties on track to lose seats to the SNP too.
How did Labour get hold of the memo ? You do know they have not been in government for 5 years !
And while we are at it Sunil Prasannan, my vegetarian comrade. What does ELBOW stand for?
Sorry to but in, but Electoral Leader Board of the Week, and EICIPM means Ed Is Crap is PM.
Can someone explain Basil the squirrel to me, I don't get that one!
A certain poster whose name escapes me noticed that the PB Tories only wanted to discuss polling when it looked good for them. When a strong poll came out for Labour suddenly the conversation turned to the weather, or whatever. The squirrel reference is to, I think, the film Up where the dogs get distracted every so often by squirrels - e.g. they point at squirrels rather than discuss uncomfortable facts.
The poster also ridiculed the fact that crossover (tory leads in the polls) was repeatedly predicted but still hasn't consistently emerged. Basil would normally turn up and have to "move the goalposts" to his annoyance.
Bit sad to follow this stuff but I do find the quirks of this site entertaining
Is the 'categorical denial' now a 'clarification'?
@iainmartin1: "Ambassador….had truncated meeting… FM stating that she wouldn’t want a formal coalition with Lab; that she’d rather see Cam remain as PM"
Don't know why the Tories are trying to help the SNP's campaign. The Nationalists are beating Labour like a drum here in Scotland as it is. Do they think that they can get some Labour voters to switch to them to keep the nasty Scots out of power at Westminster??
Absolutely. It's a win/win for the Tories. The more seats the SNP wins the greater the chance of the Tories being the largest party. At the same time the spectre of the Labour government dependent on the support of a party that ultimately wants the UK to cease existing is unlikely to go down well with English voters.
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
I don't see that's true. The Tories were pushing Ms Sturgeon as a winner yesterday.
"Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, and Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said the “astonishing” account of her comments proves that the SNP really wants a Tory Government with few or no MPs in Scotland, allowing the party to push the case for a second independence referendum."
Labour/LD seem to be behind this. They're the two parties on track to lose seats to the SNP too.
How did Labour get hold of the memo ? You do know they have not been in government for 5 years !
The Tories did it, it is clear !
The same way the opposition always get them, Civil Servants give them to them. It's called sucking up.
However, this story has quotes from both Scottish LDs and Labour figures, so perhaps the LDs were the source?
In 2010 the LDs won 11 Scottish seats, Labour won 41 Scottish seats, the Conservatives won 1.
Could be a help to the labour party in Scotland the statement by sturgeon to the French ambassador.
Sturgeon secretly backs the tories won't go down well in Scotland,not a help for the SNP.
No one would believe it, even if passed down from the heavens themselves, surely. So whatever the truth, it looks like an attack on her, which will be spun as an attack on Scotland, and so on and so forth, the SNP will do well out of it.
Could be a help to the labour party in Scotland the statement by sturgeon to the French ambassador.
Sturgeon secretly backs the tories won't go down well in Scotland,not a help for the SNP.
No one would believe it, even if passed down from the heavens themselves, surely. So whatever the truth, it looks like an attack on her, which will be spun as an attack on Scotland, and so on and so forth, the SNP will do well out of it.
And while we are at it Sunil Prasannan, my vegetarian comrade. What does ELBOW stand for?
Sorry to but in, but Electoral Leader Board of the Week, and EICIPM means Ed Is Crap is PM.
Can someone explain Basil the squirrel to me, I don't get that one!
A certain poster whose name escapes me noticed that the PB Tories only wanted to discuss polling when it looked good for them. When a strong poll came out for Labour suddenly the conversation turned to the weather, or whatever. The squirrel reference is to, I think, the film Up where the dogs get distracted every so often by squirrels - e.g. they point at squirrels rather than discuss uncomfortable facts.
The poster also ridiculed the fact that crossover (tory leads in the polls) was repeatedly predicted but still hasn't consistently emerged. Basil would normally turn up and have to "move the goalposts" to his annoyance.
Bit sad to follow this stuff but I do find the quirks of this site entertaining
I think I started the 'Look: squirrel!' meme, which was aimed initially at Tim. Although someone may have been doing it before me?
What did I start? :-)
I've a policy never to discuss individual polls: there's far too much fevered excitement over every single poll that comes out. I can understand it if someone has bet the house on a certain outcome, but otherwise it seems more then a trifle pointless.
Could be a help to the labour party in Scotland the statement by sturgeon to the French ambassador.
Sturgeon secretly backs the tories won't go down well in Scotland,not a help for the SNP.
It shortcircuits another Tory argument that vote Tory to exclude the SNP, that will not work very well if the SNP look as if they will go to bed with the Tories.
Telling the truth in private, especially to a diplomat, is very, very naive.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
I'm tempted to see the Sturgeon scare story in the same light as the various anti-Clegg stories run in the aftermath of the first debate five years ago. The Mail is a pro-Conservative newspaper and it will run stories guaranteed to disadvantage the opponents of the Conservative party (primarily Labour) and with a view to boosting the vote of the Conservative Party.
Fair enough, it's a free press but view what the Mail prints through that prism and it's easy to see what they are trying to do and the truth.
The Mail is terrified of the Conservatives losing power and being replaced by a Labour-SNP Government led by Ed Miliband not that I suppose it would lose a single reader if it happened and it would still be the principal "voice of the resistance" but there you go...
Of course you are equally aware of the pink prism through which to view stories in the Guardian and the Mirror.
Astonishing that some of the3 Labour trolls on here cannot see that the only party which could benefit from the Sturgeon story being true are Labour.
However, I think it's entirely plausible that she said Ed M is not PM material. After all the Pope is catholic.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster.
Telling the truth in private, especially to a diplomat, is very, very naive.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
What did she say? I step away from PB for an hour and miss all the fun.
Andrew Neil @afneil 25s26 seconds ago Told there's an interesting story about Ms Sturgeon coming up on @Telegraph website 21.30. @Spectator_CH on standby to follow up.
Not sure what this might be - but just noticed it.
She doesn't really strike me as the sort of politician likely to create a sensation.
I don't see that's true. The Tories were pushing Ms Sturgeon as a winner yesterday.
"Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, and Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said the “astonishing” account of her comments proves that the SNP really wants a Tory Government with few or no MPs in Scotland, allowing the party to push the case for a second independence referendum."
Labour/LD seem to be behind this. They're the two parties on track to lose seats to the SNP too.
How did Labour get hold of the memo ? You do know they have not been in government for 5 years !
The Tories did it, it is clear !
Think about it. It makes no sense foorthe Tories to do it. I haven't checked the story but the most likely explanation is that it comes from the French. France would surely prefer a Labour government. They have a socialist president and Cameron is determined to embark on a European renegotiation. The French don't want that. Neither do they probably want the UK to fall apart and this could weaken the SNP.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
It looks like a planted story. There's no video. So I imagine voters will dismiss it.
Telling the truth in private, especially to a diplomat, is very, very naive.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
What did she say? I step away from PB for an hour and miss all the fun.
That she hopes Ed Miliband Will Not Be Prime Minister
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster.
Seems to be the French so far...
Who said something about blaming foreigners for everything? *innocent face*
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
It looks like a planted story. There's no video. So I imagine voters will dismiss it.
I was thinking the same, a secret recording of her saying it would have been a killer.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
It looks like a planted story. There's no video. So I imagine voters will dismiss it.
We need someone who watches STV to find out more about the view from scotland about this.
Telling the truth in private, especially to a diplomat, is very, very naive.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
What did she say? I step away from PB for an hour and miss all the fun.
That she hopes Ed Miliband Will Not Be Prime Minister
I hope she used the correct parlance "EMWNBPM". Not sure exactly how to pronounce it though...
Comments
The poster also ridiculed the fact that crossover (tory leads in the polls) was repeatedly predicted but still hasn't consistently emerged. Basil would normally turn up and have to "move the goalposts" to his annoyance.
Bit sad to follow this stuff but I do find the quirks of this site entertaining
This I assume? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11514933/Nicola-Sturgeon-secretly-backs-David-Cameron.html
@SkyNews TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Sturgeon triumph has Labour in turmoil" #skypapers
Perhaps an easier way to consider it though is just consider 3 events Tories 300 or less, Tories overall majority, or Tories 'thumping majority' You can get the market's view of the middle one from betfair - about 12.5%, and the 300 or less thing is perhaps 75%, with the thumping majority maybe having a 1% chance. So you get 6*0.70 - 19 * 0.125 - 69 *0.01 - and broadly that suggests the pricing isn't far wrong.
Exc: Nicola Sturgeon secretly backs David Cameron http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11514933/Nicola-Sturgeon-secretly-backs-David-Cameron.html …
And at the same time the Daily Mail has this:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/584088587433541633/photo/1
Remember the Clegg is Nazi/Communist/Islamist from the 2010 debates?
I won't stress too much about the max loss of 350.
Same old tactics that were used successfully on Clegg in 2010.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhdNCCyJaj8/S9A92UaADoI/AAAAAAAABVk/IJKmkhA-MBg/s400/89681389-5579e2755983fbd890077a70c5c1bcea.4bd03d4a-scaled.jpg
We will see how much power has the press lost 5 years later.
The SNP leader told the French Ambassador in February that she would prefer that "David Cameron remain” in Downing Street, according to an official account of their conversation seen by The Daily Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11514933/Nicola-Sturgeon-secretly-backs-David-Cameron.html
If it made any difference to the deflation of the cleggasm I have no idea.
We are a strange collection of people aren't we.
Reckon it's going to get increasingly rats in a sack all round tbh.
Next, Foreign governments will not trust the Brits keeping things secret.
On another note, the rise and rise of EICIPM seems unstoppable.
Meantime since it is still Easter I see that Carswell has refused three times before the cock crowed to endorse saviour's comments on Aids sufferers.
Rather annoyingly 'Mr Carswell has urged Ukip to champion the benefits of immigration and to reject “ugly nativism” – remarks that irked some of Mr Farage’s closest allies.'
In fact had to look at my Spreadsheet to work out BJESUS
Private Eye is the exception, and for a good reason:
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/583866400541933568/photo/1
I'm tempted to see the Sturgeon scare story in the same light as the various anti-Clegg stories run in the aftermath of the first debate five years ago. The Mail is a pro-Conservative newspaper and it will run stories guaranteed to disadvantage the opponents of the Conservative party (primarily Labour) and with a view to boosting the vote of the Conservative Party.
Fair enough, it's a free press but view what the Mail prints through that prism and it's easy to see what they are trying to do and the truth.
The Mail is terrified of the Conservatives losing power and being replaced by a Labour-SNP Government led by Ed Miliband not that I suppose it would lose a single reader if it happened and it would still be the principal "voice of the resistance" but there you go...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11514933/Nicola-Sturgeon-secretly-backs-David-Cameron.html
I think you are allowing your hatred for the Tories to warp your analysis.
"Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, and Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said the “astonishing” account of her comments proves that the SNP really wants a Tory Government with few or no MPs in Scotland, allowing the party to push the case for a second independence referendum."
Labour/LD seem to be behind this. They're the two parties on track to lose seats to the SNP too.
It was hilarious meeting usernames in person.
Anyway you didn't reply to my post the other day about your PB nickname for your wife?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3024942/Six-people-arrested-suspicion-Syria-related-terrorism-offences-Dover.html
Another trip from Islamist Tours Ltd rudely interrupted. I hear it was a lads weekend to Raqqa, for a spot of site seeing.
Do they think that they can get some Labour voters to switch to them to keep the nasty Scots out of power at Westminster??
ARSE - Assorted Random Selection of Electors
BJESUS - Big John Election Service Uniform Swing
That's the plan anyway?
Random
Selection of
Electors
.@simon_telegraph your story is categorically, 100%, untrue...which I'd have told you if you'd asked me at any point today
Unless, Crosby gave the Telegraph journalist a "scoop" and he fell for it !
But I'm told by reliable sources on here that Miliband won the debate - how can Nicola, the smart clever and definitely believable oh so different SNP leader, possibly say he is not prime ministerial material?
Perhaps the French translator will be clapped into nthe bbastille?
5 weeks to go... this is terrible already.
The Tories did it, it is clear !
Sturgeon secretly backs the tories won't go down well in Scotland,not a help for the SNP.
@iainmartin1: "Ambassador….had truncated meeting… FM stating that she wouldn’t want a formal coalition with Lab; that she’d rather see Cam remain as PM"
Cameron 39
Miliband 23
Farage 13
Clegg 6
However, this story has quotes from both Scottish LDs and Labour figures, so perhaps the LDs were the source?
In 2010 the LDs won 11 Scottish seats, Labour won 41 Scottish seats, the Conservatives won 1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010_(Scotland)
What did I start? :-)
I've a policy never to discuss individual polls: there's far too much fevered excitement over every single poll that comes out. I can understand it if someone has bet the house on a certain outcome, but otherwise it seems more then a trifle pointless.
But fun to read. :-)
Telling the truth in private, especially to a diplomat, is very, very naive.
Obviously the SNP will go into full damage-limitation mode, and I expect they'll probably be fairly successful in transferring the blame to Labour/the Tories/Westminster. Even so, this is a mega unforced error.
SCOTTISH DAILY MAIL: Nicola - I want Tories to win #tomorrowspaperstoday
Astonishing that some of the3 Labour trolls on here cannot see that the only party which could benefit from the Sturgeon story being true are Labour.
However, I think it's entirely plausible that she said Ed M is not PM material. After all the Pope is catholic.