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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and

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  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Well knock me down with a feather - the SNP wants the Tories to win; whoever would have thought it? Anyone would think they thought a Tory win would make it easier to get a second Indy referendum or something.

    That isn't the story - the story is that Nicola Sturgeon appears to have been stupid enough to admit it.

    Dan H has this right - this is a bombshell.

    I very much doubt it. At least not in Scotland. The SNP is currently untouchable.

    Agreed. Can't see a possible French note affecting things. Think this is Ireland circa 1880's: an historic shift. Miliband I think will scrape into No 10 but as the weakest PM since 1923 and as the Labour leader that lost the Scottish heartland. It will be mighty uncomfortable for him.
  • Speedy said:
    Grasping at straws
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The sturgeon story is a kick in the teeth for the Tories not just the SNP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    TGOHF said:

    @Markfergusonuk: I’m no fan of the Telegraph. But to believe their front page is false, you have to believe a paper fabricated a government document

    Many would be perfectly willing to believe that, but mentally most people don't need to make that leap. All they'll hear is there is this accusation, and the SNP will deny it. Which side do people like more, which side is pushing the story, and they'll dismiss as appropriate. It's hard to see a Telegraph story being seized upon by Labour as counting for much.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    That said, I don't think this is going to do the SNP much harm.

    If you want independence, you'd want Sturgeon to do/want things that maximises the chance of independence, and a David Cameron led government offering an in/out EU referendum is the best way.

    That is one way to look at it, but in scotland there is a stigma with anything Tory.

    Labour were hurt because the SNP accused them of going to bed with the Tories during the Referendum, so I do expect the same to happen to the SNP now that they are in bed with the Tories.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I have been posting for weeks and months that the SNP will get the best deal for Scotland from David Cameron and that there is more than an even chance that this is negotiable between both parties from 8th May. The telegraph story only re-affirms my view

    Mr Cameron wants EVEL - to neuter Labour over 90% of the UK - that is worth quite a lot.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:


    Labour majority is a better bet, I think this could be a black swan moment for the SNP and Tories here. Bad news for both.

    Yeah, I just took a bit of Lab Maj at the ludicrously high odds of 40.0. Even without Nicola's little faux pas that's absurdly generous.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The SNP is a religion not a party. Like a priest being outed as a child abuser it won't lessen the fervour of the flock.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    john_zims said:

    'Ms Sturgeon has confessed to the French ambassador that she would prefer that David Cameron “remains” Prime Minister – and that she thinks Ed Miliband is too incompetent.'

    Poor old Ed's even regarded as a joke by Sturgeon.

    The more you think about this the less there is to it. Sturgeon is just telling it the way it is, like Cameron saying he didn't want a third term. Ask yourself: had David Miliband been Lab leader, do you think this conversation would have taken place?
    If the story was just her saying Ed is not PM material, you're right, it wouldn't be a story.

    The story is her saying she "prefers" Cameron to be PM, which can be spun by SLAB (however disingenuously) as her secretly planning to prop up the tories, therefore destroying one of the main pillars of the Lab->SNP switchers.
    Yes, I can see how it could be spun that way. The answer is that prefers just means prefers, not will support. I could be wrong but I don't see a rush back to SLAB on the back of this. I'd expect its main effects to be internal to the SNP and the Stur-Sal balance of power.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The sturgeon story is a kick in the teeth for the Tories not just the SNP.


    What that the new media darling thinks Ed is crap ? Win win.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    But Ms Sturgeon tweeted that the story was "categorically, 100% untrue".

    Well lets hope that is true and Telegraph don't have any more evidence. I think I might have tried to come up with something a bit more "flexible" as my defence, you know just in case.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Speedy said:
    Grasping at straws
    Yes - didn't they already know that Ed was merde?

    (is it now officially EIM?)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015

    I very much doubt it. At least not in Scotland. The SNP is currently untouchable.

    That is about to change.
    Bad news for the cons then ;-)

    It doesn't much affect the Conservatives.
    It could be disastrous for the Conservatives.

    If it swings 15 to 20 seats back from SNP to Lab then that could easily make the difference between Ed becoming PM or not.

    Whether it will do that though - I haven't a clue.

    But I would expect betting markets to move to reflect this. I regard it as by far the worst thing that has happened so far for the Conservatives in the campaign.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    I think it's fair to say the SNP are now off the grid...

    What does that mean?
  • weejonnie said:

    I have been posting for weeks and months that the SNP will get the best deal for Scotland from David Cameron and that there is more than an even chance that this is negotiable between both parties from 8th May. The telegraph story only re-affirms my view

    Mr Cameron wants EVEL - to neuter Labour over 90% of the UK - that is worth quite a lot.
    It is so obvious - labour neutralised in Scotland and split in England on austerity = conservatives in government for years
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Given that a large proportion of SNP/YES voters believe all sorts of stories to do with secret oil fields and MI5 interference in the referendum, I think they will mostly find plenty of ways to rationalise away a he-said/she-said story.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But Ms Sturgeon tweeted that the story was "categorically, 100% untrue".

    Well lets hope that is true and Telegraph don't have any more evidence. I think I might have tried to come up with something a bit more "flexible" as my defence, you know just in case.

    If I understand it correctly, the Telegraph have a leaked document. The existence or contents of that document are probably not in dispute

    The spin from the SNP now seems to be that the memo is not an accurate reflection of the content of the meeting.

    Calling the French liars basically it seems
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,485

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    I think it's fair to say the SNP are now off the grid...

    What does that mean?

    I think the grid is a plan for the week that some of the parties produce; it shows what is happening when: events and announcements. Being 'off the grid' means that the careful plan has been upset by events.

    I think.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    TGOHF said:

    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    This story is good for Labour in Scotland but bad for Labour in England.

    I agree with Nicola - Ed is crap.

    How is that bad for Labour in England?
    The Tories rely on a strong SNP to scare voters in England to vote Tory.
    Nippy sweetie who won debates thinks Ed is crap and not fit to be PM - but Cam is.
    As I said down thread - its a doubled barrelled leak. It pulls Sturgeon down several pegs and slates Miliband as useless.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Union saved.

    Nicola hidden, Eck wheeled out.

    SNP surge over.

    Who wants a SNP Lab pact now ?

    Yeah awful for Cameron :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    But Ms Sturgeon tweeted that the story was "categorically, 100% untrue".

    Well lets hope that is true and Telegraph don't have any more evidence. I think I might have tried to come up with something a bit more "flexible" as my defence, you know just in case.

    If I understand it correctly, the Telegraph have a leaked document. The existence or contents of that document are probably not in dispute

    The spin from the SNP now seems to be that the memo is not an accurate reflection of the content of the meeting.

    Calling the French liars basically it seems
    Well the other person in the room when she said it will be able to tell us :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Probably correct.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354

    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Agreed, this is all a bit like when Tim told us Dave would have to resign over riding a horse.

    Won't shift a single vote.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Unraveling....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    edited April 2015

    Speedy said:
    Grasping at straws
    Yes - didn't they already know that Ed was merde?

    (is it now officially EIM?)
    Ed est merde

    EEMEPM (de Grand Bretagne)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    The Sturgeon story is devastating to both the SNP and their allies, the Tories.

    Simple as that. Goodnight....

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Well the other person in the room when she said it will be able to tell us :-)

    Looks like the French have denied it too.

    Who wrote the memo then?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Oh.

    SNP landslide back on, then.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Correct, some usually reliable posters getting their undies in a bunch over this.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Speedy said:
    Grasping at straws
    Yes - didn't they already know that Ed was merde?

    (is it now officially EIM?)
    Ed est merde

    EEMEPM (de Grand Bretagne)
    Frangais only Rodders
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Oh.

    SNP landslide back on, then.
    Ed ne merde pas
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Could be critical that there is another debate to come.

    Gives Sturgeon the opportunity to rubbish the story and thus retain support.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    I think it's fair to say the SNP are now off the grid...

    What does that mean?

    It means Dan doesn't know what he's talking about!

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Sure, the SNP groupies will think it's all lies and a Westminster plot. That's not the point. This is about the traditional loyal Labour supporters whom SLAB desperately need to frighten into voting Labour rather than SNP. SLAB were struggling with that message, but now they've been given a massive great help with it. Since the gradient of seats vs swing is quite steep on current polling, that matters.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Oh.

    SNP landslide back on, then.
    AHAHAHAHAHAHA

    And the best bit is, all that survives of the story is the rather strong suggestion that ed is crap.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Scott_P said:

    Well the other person in the room when she said it will be able to tell us :-)

    Looks like the French have denied it too.

    Who wrote the memo then?
    Oh well fun half hour

    DH wrong as usual. As i said NON STORY
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/584113809633239040

    A lot of media stories which do not appear to have been taken down, a large number of tweets and a lot of posters on here are now in the position of having libelled Ms Sturgeon.
  • Only relevance isin context of English seats; what matters for Conservatives is to have nore seats than Labour + SNP + PC- if not then most likely outcome is EICIPM which is good value at 6/4.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    murali_s said:

    The Sturgeon story is devastating to both the SNP and their allies, the Tories.

    Simple as that. Goodnight....

    Best timed post EVER.

    Goodnight.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    murali_s said:

    The Sturgeon story is devastating to both the SNP and their allies, the Tories.

    Simple as that. Goodnight....

    Devastasting for who that she thinks EIM (ok EEM??)



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,162
    TGOHF said:

    @Markfergusonuk: I’m no fan of the Telegraph. But to believe their front page is false, you have to believe a paper fabricated a government document

    PB Loyalist quoting editor of Labourlist tweeting approvingly about a Telegraph frontpage; the Bettertogether axis is revivified.

    Tory Unionists are getting greedy, they want Miliband and the SNP to be stuffed.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    MikeL said:

    I very much doubt it. At least not in Scotland. The SNP is currently untouchable.

    That is about to change.
    Bad news for the cons then ;-)

    It doesn't much affect the Conservatives.
    It could be disastrous for the Conservatives.

    If it swings 15 to 20 seats back from SNP to Lab then that could easily make the difference between Ed becoming PM or not.

    Whether it will do that though - I haven't a clue.

    But I would expect betting markets to move to reflect this. I regard it as by far the worst thing that has happened so far for the Conservatives in the campaign.
    The Telegraph is hardly a big seller in Scotland. I doubt this makes much of a difference to the SNP steamroller that is about to hit the many Labour seats in the central belt of Scotland. I guess that we will only know if it has made any impact in a weeks time once several polls are done after the Easter break but the debate success will be a much bigger factor I think.
    I would still predict that the SNP are going to be closer to 50 seats than 40 and even 55 is not out of the question unfortunately.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    Ishmael_X said:


    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Correct, some usually reliable posters getting their undies in a bunch over this.
    Hope will do that sometimes. Desperate, desperate hope.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    TSE was saying his twitter feed was full of Labour supporters saying Telegraph was a good source of info after all...I bet that didn't last long.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Dair said:

    https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/584113809633239040

    A lot of media stories which do not appear to have been taken down, a large number of tweets and a lot of posters on here are now in the position of having libelled Ms Sturgeon.

    It is not libellous to say of someone that she believes that ed is crap.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    There are now three possibilities as to how this has happened.

    1. The Telegraph made the whole thing up and fabricated a government document.
    2. A political party made the whole thing up, fabricated a government document and leaked it to the Telegraph.
    3. A Civil Servant created a false official document and leaked it to the Telegraph.

    Whichever it is, someone's in a lot of trouble.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Well, that was quick. People barely had time to get their angry tweets in.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_X said:

    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Oh.

    SNP landslide back on, then.
    AHAHAHAHAHAHA

    And the best bit is, all that survives of the story is the rather strong suggestion that ed is crap.
    Indeed - the SNP won't lose a single vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Torygraph bollox headlines 2 days on trot
  • But Ms Sturgeon tweeted that the story was "categorically, 100% untrue".

    Well lets hope that is true and Telegraph don't have any more evidence. I think I might have tried to come up with something a bit more "flexible" as my defence, you know just in case.

    Never believe anything until its been officially denied - first rule of yes minister

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    This campaign is hyped to new, insane levels.

    The Lab 4% lead, the 37% Tory poll, the debate, the non-debate, Sturgeon, Paxman, Hobbits and the 100. Each seen as some epoch making event. Front pages of Newspapers claiming crisis, scandal and triumph on a daily basis.*

    It's nuts. Totally nuts. And we still have more than a month to go.



    * Meanwhile in the real world nothing at all has changed, as an unexcited electorate maybe starts to ponder an uninspiring choice.





  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Totally agree with this. Labour and the Libdems are almost as toxic as the Tories to many SNP supporters just now.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    There are now three possibilities as to how this has happened.

    1. The Telegraph made the whole thing up and fabricated a government document.
    2. A political party made the whole thing up, fabricated a government document and leaked it to the Telegraph.
    3. A Civil Servant created a false official document and leaked it to the Telegraph.

    Whichever it is, someone's in a lot of trouble.


    4. She said it .
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited April 2015

    Scott_P said:

    @severincarrell: French consul general tells @GdnScotland no such views given by @NicolaSturgeon "absolutely no preference was expressed" on #GE2015 outcome

    Unraveling....
    Consul General?? Where is the ambassador?
    Is this the 'war of Nicola's 'earsay'?

    You heard it first here'
    eye thenkyow
    et bon soir
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited April 2015
    Don't know/care if this has been shared here already...

    careless whisper
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,589
    Dair said:

    There are now three possibilities as to how this has happened.

    1. The Telegraph made the whole thing up and fabricated a government document.
    2. A political party made the whole thing up, fabricated a government document and leaked it to the Telegraph.
    3. A Civil Servant created a false official document and leaked it to the Telegraph.

    Whichever it is, someone's in a lot of trouble.

    I generally try to stick to the principle of never assuming malice where stupidity will do - so perhaps the document is real, someone who did not write it leaked it in excitement, but the person who wrote it was just an idiot who got the details wrong.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015

    Only relevance isin context of English seats; what matters for Conservatives is to have nore seats than Labour + SNP + PC- if not then most likely outcome is EICIPM which is good value at 6/4.

    No, because LD will prefer to go with Con alone rather than Lab + SNP.

    LD order of pref:

    1) Lab + LD
    2) Con + LD
    3) Lab + LD requiring SNP support

    Assuming LD get 30, threshold for 1) or 2) is Lab 285 or Con 285. If either big party gets 285 that's it (DUP will go with winner to make 323).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    It looks like a spectacular misreading of Sturgeon story on here. The SNP will deny it happened, their supporters will believe them. It's not normal politics in Scotland currently. The SNP is a movement, not a political party.

    This will be framed as the Westminster elite and the English press telling more lies to scare Scottish voters. And that will be good enough for SNP voters, especially as SLab is utterly toxic in and will be for some time yet.

    Correct, some usually reliable posters getting their undies in a bunch over this.
    Hope will do that sometimes. Desperate, desperate hope.
    Hope for a Labour majority? Me? Definitely not.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Will the Telegraph and the Mail have to pulp their first runs?

    Surely the debunk is in time where they can't legally send them for sale without being liable for a huge damages claim.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 26m 26 minutes ago
    Can't remember many game changing headlines over the last few elections. But tonight's might be one.

    Shit its clearly a non story as DH is wrong about everything

    Why was there any doubt DH 100% record intact.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    There are now three possibilities as to how this has happened.

    1. The Telegraph made the whole thing up and fabricated a government document.
    2. A political party made the whole thing up, fabricated a government document and leaked it to the Telegraph.
    3. A Civil Servant created a false official document and leaked it to the Telegraph.

    Whichever it is, someone's in a lot of trouble.

    I generally try to stick to the principle of never assuming malice where stupidity will do - so perhaps the document is real, someone who did not write it leaked it in excitement, but the person who wrote it was just an idiot who got the details wrong.
    Bloody foreigners...coming over here, not being able to speak the language :-)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Ha, ha - now we're probably looking at an increase in the SNP vote. The Torygraph has been sold a pup and the SNP have been handed a golden opportunity to lambast the English press for spreading fear and lies. And SLab bought it too, which will increase their toxicity. There is, it seems, literally nothing that does not fall in the SNP's favour currently. Even losing the referendum was a god send.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    There are now three possibilities as to how this has happened.

    1. The Telegraph made the whole thing up and fabricated a government document.
    2. A political party made the whole thing up, fabricated a government document and leaked it to the Telegraph.
    3. A Civil Servant created a false official document and leaked it to the Telegraph.

    Whichever it is, someone's in a lot of trouble.

    I generally try to stick to the principle of never assuming malice where stupidity will do - so perhaps the document is real, someone who did not write it leaked it in excitement, but the person who wrote it was just an idiot who got the details wrong.
    THere's a problem with that.

    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
  • weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    Peter Mannion MP is a spoof account.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    A straw poll. What do people think is the cost of a year's supply on antiretriviral drugs to treat HIV?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Southam you are as wrong as this as when you said Ed wouldn't make it to the general.

    Or that Scotland would go independent.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    Peter Mannion is the MP from The Thick Of It
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Dair said:


    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.

    Clearly you haven't read the article. The minutes which (it is claimed) have been leaked were not the ones written by the Scottish civil servant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Chris_A said:

    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
    Also helps if you don't actually exist....
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    There are now three possibilities as to how this has happened.

    1. The Telegraph made the whole thing up and fabricated a government document.
    2. A political party made the whole thing up, fabricated a government document and leaked it to the Telegraph.
    3. A Civil Servant created a false official document and leaked it to the Telegraph.

    Whichever it is, someone's in a lot of trouble.

    I generally try to stick to the principle of never assuming malice where stupidity will do - so perhaps the document is real, someone who did not write it leaked it in excitement, but the person who wrote it was just an idiot who got the details wrong.
    THere's a problem with that.

    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.
    Do calm down, the report is based on what the ambassador reported to the consul-general and the C-G then relayed to London.

    Look at the report:

    Included in a civil servant's summary was the line that "she'd rather see David Cameron remain as PM (and didn't see Ed Miliband as PM material)", according to the paper.

    Now look at the denial: "absolutely no preference was expressed"

    A complete denial would read: "absolutely no preference was expressed and absolutely no opinion on Ed Miliband was expressed"

    I wonder why it doesn't say that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Chris_A said:

    A straw poll. What do people think is the cost of a year's supply on antiretriviral drugs to treat HIV?

    i guess £7k based on the always reliable Torygraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/9109658/Foreigners-to-be-offered-free-treatment-for-HIV-on-the-NHS.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "and didn’t see Ed Miliband as PM material.”

    Entirely consistent with not stating a 'preference'

    I don't care who wins - but Ed sure is crap.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    James Cook ‏@BBCJamesCook 2m2 minutes ago

    Spokesman for the French ambassador tells me @NicolaSturgeon did not express a preference for next British prime minister or government.
    67 retweets 16 favorites
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 758
    Disregarding these sorts of stories is already written into the behaviour of those who voted Yes anyway. By way of evidence I present: They voted Yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Chris_A said:

    A straw poll. What do people think is the cost of a year's supply on antiretriviral drugs to treat HIV?

    Depends which antiretrivirals....Are some of them coming off patent soon and about to potentially become very cheap?

    That is what I seemed to remember was mentioned when they were talking about the programme they ran for high risk gay men, who were given antiretrivirals upfront to stop the spread of AIDS. The particular one they were given was quite costly, but about to come off patent protection.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:


    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.

    Clearly you haven't read the article. The minutes which (it is claimed) have been leaked were not the ones written by the Scottish civil servant.
    That's what the article says.

    But it's not what happens. When the FM has a discussion with a Consul and minutes are taken, they are taken by a Scottish civil servant. It was the first clue the article was bullshit. The Scottish Government then send a copy of the minutes to London.

    So either only these minutes exist or for some reason the Westminster civil service sent someone up to Edinburgh to record an additional set of minutes at this meeting, even though they would be sent a copy anyway.

    The Telegraph didn't fact check the story. Nothing in it is reliable. It's been debunked in less than an hour.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Chris_A said:

    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
    Disclaimer or not, Ed Miliband omitted MP, so why can't Ed Balls, Kerry McCartney, Tristam Hunt do it as well?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Dair said:

    Will the Telegraph and the Mail have to pulp their first runs?

    Surely the debunk is in time where they can't legally send them for sale without being liable for a huge damages claim.

    You think Sturgeon will sue? What should we conclude if she doesn't?

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    dr_spyn said:

    Chris_A said:

    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
    Disclaimer or not, Ed Miliband omitted MP, so why can't Ed Balls, Kerry McCartney, Tristam Hunt do it as well?

    Because the Commons authorities have made it clear that you don't have to as long as you make the declaration. Maybe Ed Balls thinks not many people will bother to follow him if he sets up a new account.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Ed is not PM material is PM (EINPMMIPM)

    Tonights Survation
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Dair said:

    Dair said:


    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.

    Clearly you haven't read the article. The minutes which (it is claimed) have been leaked were not the ones written by the Scottish civil servant.
    That's what the article says.

    But it's not what happens. When the FM has a discussion with a Consul and minutes are taken, they are taken by a Scottish civil servant. It was the first clue the article was bullshit. The Scottish Government then send a copy of the minutes to London.

    So either only these minutes exist or for some reason the Westminster civil service sent someone up to Edinburgh to record an additional set of minutes at this meeting, even though they would be sent a copy anyway.

    The Telegraph didn't fact check the story. Nothing in it is reliable. It's been debunked in less than an hour.
    No, mate, you didn't read the Telegraph story. The claim is (i don't know whether it is true or not) that it is the minutes taken BY THE FRENCH we are talking about.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    A straw poll. What do people think is the cost of a year's supply on antiretriviral drugs to treat HIV?

    Depends which antiretrivirals....Are some of them coming off patent soon and about to potentially become very cheap?

    That is what I seemed to remember was mentioned when they were talking about the programme they ran for high risk gay men, who were given antiretrivirals upfront to stop the spread of AIDS. The particular one they were given was quite costly, but about to come off patent protection.
    The commonest ones prescribed in this country, i.e. Apripla or Truvada +darunavir/ritonavir?


  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    Dair said:

    Will the Telegraph and the Mail have to pulp their first runs?

    Surely the debunk is in time where they can't legally send them for sale without being liable for a huge damages claim.

    You think Sturgeon will sue? What should we conclude if she doesn't?

    A front page apology wiil suffice.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited April 2015
    Just when I thought it was safe to come out after " soaps debate" .....


    It's no secret that the French government would prefer Ed.

    In saying that it's a very very high risk stakes game to perhaps be playing to shall we say influence the election by the inadvertent release of a document the day after the SNP do well. I never believe in coincidence though especially when events occur so close together. Just too convenient. It would have been better and more believable next week.

    In saying that I still think it will not resonate that much In Scotland as they are a canny and even stubborn lot up there. In England though not sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,972
    edited April 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Chris_A said:

    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
    Disclaimer or not, Ed Miliband omitted MP, so why can't Ed Balls, Kerry McCartney, Tristam Hunt do it as well?

    The get out for some MPs, is that some spoof twitter accounts have taken over the logical twitter address for them whilst they aren't MPs so they have to stick with the original handle.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Chris_A said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Chris_A said:

    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
    Disclaimer or not, Ed Miliband omitted MP, so why can't Ed Balls, Kerry McCartney, Tristam Hunt do it as well?

    Because the Commons authorities have made it clear that you don't have to as long as you make the declaration. Maybe Ed Balls thinks not many people will bother to follow him if he sets up a new account.

    Seems a sensible decision to me. Imagine if tomorrow you had to stop using your primary email for the next 6 weeks, it would be quite an upheaval, lots of missed messages, etc.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Full quote from the original Telegraph story:
    It continues: "The Ambassador....had a truncated meeting with the FM [Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister] (FM running late after a busy Thursday…). Discussion appears to have focused mainly on the political situation, with the FM stating that she wouldn’t want a formal coalition with Labour; that the SNP would almost certainly have a large number of seats... that she’d rather see David Cameron remain as PM (and didn’t see Ed Miliband as PM material)."
    I suppose Sturgeon might have just said that Ed wasn't PM material, and her supposedly wanting Dave to stay PM was just the conjecture of the civil-servant writing the minutes?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Dair said:

    Dair said:


    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.

    Clearly you haven't read the article. The minutes which (it is claimed) have been leaked were not the ones written by the Scottish civil servant.
    That's what the article says.

    But it's not what happens. When the FM has a discussion with a Consul and minutes are taken, they are taken by a Scottish civil servant. It was the first clue the article was bullshit. The Scottish Government then send a copy of the minutes to London.

    So either only these minutes exist or for some reason the Westminster civil service sent someone up to Edinburgh to record an additional set of minutes at this meeting, even though they would be sent a copy anyway.

    The Telegraph didn't fact check the story. Nothing in it is reliable. It's been debunked in less than an hour.
    You still haven't read the article. Let me help you:

    Just had a telephone conversation with Pierre-Alain Coffinier, the French CG [consul-general]. He was keen to fill me in on some of the conversations his Ambassador had during her visit to Scotland last week.

    Can't you tell the difference between the official minutes of a meeting in Scotland, and the minutes of a telephone conversation between different people some days later?
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    edited April 2015

    Chris_A said:

    A straw poll. What do people think is the cost of a year's supply on antiretriviral drugs to treat HIV?

    i guess £7k based on the always reliable Torygraph

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/9109658/Foreigners-to-be-offered-free-treatment-for-HIV-on-the-NHS.html
    Well the Telegraph is quite reliable but that story a few years old. A tad high as most Trusts will obtain them under contract and also supply them via a homecare company to make use of the VAT fiddle. Which just goes to show that Farage is a liar who talks complete bollocks.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    #nikileaks :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited April 2015
    IOS said:

    Southam you are as wrong as this as when you said Ed wouldn't make it to the general.

    Or that Scotland would go independent.

    Fair enough. What do you think will now happen in Scotland?

    It seems to me the SNP is in a position to issue a denial of this story that will completely satisfy its 45% voter base, much of which is just as anti-Labour now as it is anti-Tory.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2015
    Chris_A said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Chris_A said:

    weejonnie said:

    Speedy said:

    To condensate tonight's discussion in a single post using tonight's front page of the same newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/584106828910436353/photo/1

    Goodnight.

    What was that again about removing the letters MP from twitter accounts?
    You don't have to remove the letters "MP" as long as you have a disclaimer in the blurb that you are not an MP but a parliamentary candidate.
    Disclaimer or not, Ed Miliband omitted MP, so why can't Ed Balls, Kerry McCartney, Tristam Hunt do it as well?

    Because the Commons authorities have made it clear that you don't have to as long as you make the declaration. Maybe Ed Balls thinks not many people will bother to follow him if he sets up a new account.

    But why did Ed Miliband take the trouble drop the MP from his name?

    I understand what you are saying, it still doesn't seem quite above board to keep it until the user is re-elected.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Would Sturgeon honestly say this in a minuted meeting?

    Where are we now. It's the French minutes but they are denying it? Most odd.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited April 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:


    The minutes were taken by a Scottish Government civil servant and were then sent to London (as is protocol). The Scottish Government have a copy of the minutes and have already said the minutes do not make any mention of the claim.

    So it can only have been changed after being sent by the Scottish Government to London.

    Clearly you haven't read the article. The minutes which (it is claimed) have been leaked were not the ones written by the Scottish civil servant.
    That's what the article says.

    But it's not what happens. When the FM has a discussion with a Consul and minutes are taken, they are taken by a Scottish civil servant. It was the first clue the article was bullshit. The Scottish Government then send a copy of the minutes to London.

    So either only these minutes exist or for some reason the Westminster civil service sent someone up to Edinburgh to record an additional set of minutes at this meeting, even though they would be sent a copy anyway.

    The Telegraph didn't fact check the story. Nothing in it is reliable. It's been debunked in less than an hour.
    No, mate, you didn't read the Telegraph story. The claim is (i don't know whether it is true or not) that it is the minutes taken BY THE FRENCH we are talking about.
    Edit - nm reread what you wrote and article.
This discussion has been closed.