politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Debate day – some facts and figures

Quite a few of the media and entourages are annoyed to find the trains from Mancland to London are out of commission tomorrow.

But they cheer up when they find to get back to London from Manchester, they are being advised to go via the great city of Sheffield instead

Images where the before is after the after are a pet peeve of mine.

So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?

Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.

antifrank said:

So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?

Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.

He's on Question Time every other week, surely that counts

Anyone know if the debates will be on youtube again? I have no desire to touch the ITV player.

That said he was dire on Radio 4 this morning, perhaps he's doing a rope-a-dope strategy today.

RobD said:

Anyone know if the debates will be on youtube again? I have no desire to touch the ITV player.

Not sure, it'll be live on the BBC iplayer if you can view it over there.

(and Sky News too)

TheScreamingEagles said:

That said he was dire on Radio 4 this morning, perhaps he's doing a rope-a-dope strategy today.

It's less acceptable to have a couple of G&Ts before the Today programme so perhaps his normal preparation process was disrupted.

This debate is the first thing I've wanted to watch on ITV (other than the weather forecast of course) for several years.

Also in last night's YouGov some encouraging internals, approval now just -10 and the Tories have a net +60 approval from their 2010 vote, quite a high level for them.

Another one on blame for cuts in "local services" which has shifted decisively from net +19 Central government to just +10 Central government. Could be evidence that people don't blame the current government for the cuts and the gap between "current government" and "previous Labour government" will have widened again should the question be asked.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582187057994444800

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Anyone know if the debates will be on youtube again? I have no desire to touch the ITV player.

Not sure, it'll be live on the BBC iplayer if you can view it over there.

(and Sky News too)

Ah, the iPlayer will suffice.

Both BBC News and Sky News are simulcasting it

I'll watch it on the BBC (since my IP-busting software lets me use iPlayer.. )

I like this from Farage's opponent in S Thanet

https://twitter.com/willscobie/status/583599778426036225

Populus is the Gold Standard!

Hell no!

Huzzah, Paddy Power have paid out early on some General Election bets.

John_N said:

"UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention [...] The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result."

What happens this time will depend on the size of the gasm. If the post-debate polls put UKIP in the lead or nearly in the lead (not at all unimaginable), and then the front pages on Fri Sat and Sun carry big photos of Farage, with headlines such as "CAN HE WIN?", "UKIP PREDICTED TO WIN 100 SEATS", and "UKIP TIPPED TO HOLD BALANCE IN HUNG PARLIAMENT", then the relative showings and pollings of other parties locally aren't going to matter much.

In the aftermath of the debate, UKIP are likely to poll aove 20% in some polls. Very probably ones with crap methodologies, but that's not that relevant.

I wonder what % of the electorate in marginals actually know they live in a marginal and if they do, what kind. Which isn't to say that you have to know something for it to affect your behaviour. But still.

If you're following a strategy of backing UKIP on the SPIN, take profit before the GE happens I reckon. Personally I reckon its a technical buy but I'm staying out.

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Huzzah, Paddy Power have paid out early on some General Election bets.

I went onto their online chat yesterday to get them to settle the party leaders going into the election and John Bercow. Well done to them for doing that.

Cheers.

I guess the big question is, will Paddy Power payout early on the General Election?

If they don't, you know it is too close to call.

Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March facts and figures:

There were 51 polls with fieldwork end-dates between 1st March and 31st March, compared with only 43 in each of February and January. Total sample 64,789.

The Tories are on their highest monthly score since the ELBOW series started
Labour's monthly lead has been slashed from 1.2% in Feb to 0.1% in March (rounded)
Despite this, Labour on their highest monthly score since December
LibDems unchanged from Feb (to 2 decimals!), and on their highest level since October
UKIP are on their lowest monthly score since August
Greens are on their lowest monthly score since November

twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208/photo/1

bigjohnowls said:

Today's Populus -EICIPM

What were the numbers?

Stupid/obvious question, but what time is the debate?!

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

That said he was dire on Radio 4 this morning, perhaps he's doing a rope-a-dope strategy today.

He ought to take a tip from Enoch.

During my BBC News day ahead of Feb 1974 election Enocch Powell came into Broadcasting House for a Today interview. As he was being taken from the green room to the studio he was asked if he wanted to pop into the loo. His response "No. I think better on a full bladder"

Well there are those who said Enoch Powell was always full of piss and wind.

Danny565 said:

Stupid/obvious question, but what time is the debate?!

8pm

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Charles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Today's Populus -EICIPM

What were the numbers?

L 34, C 32, Ukip 15, LD 9, Gr 5

Thx. Obviously an outlier

https://twitter.com/pppolitics/status/583608728219418624

ITN coverage of tonight's leaders' mass debate in public is embarrassingly inept.

antifrank said:

shadsy's boss seems admirably sensible:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg

It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.

FrancisUrquhart said:

antifrank said:

shadsy's boss seems admirably sensible:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg

It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.

They're not as bad as coral.

You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.

Pong said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

antifrank said:

shadsy's boss seems admirably sensible:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg

It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.

They're not as bad as coral.

You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.

Coral are my favourite bookie in this election and not just for that Pandas bet.

Pong said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

antifrank said:

shadsy's boss seems admirably sensible:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg

It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.

They're not as bad as coral.

You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.

None of the original bookies have coped with the switch to online.... Ladbrokes is the weirdest one as they had very good digital people back in the late 1990's and a few patents that made doing things very difficult for everyone else.

They really (and I mean) really dropped the ball around 2000...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus is the Gold Standard!

Hell no!

Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

antifrank said:

shadsy's boss seems admirably sensible:

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg

It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.

They're not as bad as coral.

You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.

Coral are my favourite bookie in this election and not just for that Pandas bet.

So long as their creditors don't pull the plug before May 8th.

IPSA...on ZHC contracts in parliament.

“The MP is the employer, it is a matter for them whether they choose to use a zero-hours contract.”

Apparently according to Tristram Hunt, IPSA isn't fit for purpose. Well who set it up?

trublue said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus is the Gold Standard!

Hell no!

Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.

Well, They did have the two main parties tied on Monday. Also a tied in mid-March, and another tie in mid-February.

But I guess you are on to something - out of 26 Populus polls so far this year, 23 have been Lab leads.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.

A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-has-twice-the-support-of-her-rivals-to-be-labour-choice-for-mayor-10151515.html

Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.

trublue said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus is the Gold Standard!

Hell no!

Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.

Perhaps they've got it absolutely right? Who knows....

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.

A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-has-twice-the-support-of-her-rivals-to-be-labour-choice-for-mayor-10151515.html

Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.

Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know

Who will be declared the winner tonight?

Favourite has to be Cameron as leading in the polls.

I think Farage might be squashed tonight. I hope he is, the others now have plenty of ammo on him.

trublue said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus is the Gold Standard!

Hell no!

Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.

I think you can only judge the poll "favours" Labour once you know the outcome of the GE - all you can say with certainty at the moment is the poll "shows a lead for" Labour, which may or may not be inaccurate. Not saying that I have a strong view on whether Populus have it right or not, but rejecting a dataset because it doesn't match other datasets is probably not smart. Apart from anything else, if you can model why and how it should diverge from other pollsters, you can adjust for that perceived bias.

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.

A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-has-twice-the-support-of-her-rivals-to-be-labour-choice-for-mayor-10151515.html

Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.

Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know

I wouldn't recommend putting any money on a man who lamented "it never happens to me".

It's Going To Happen!

We're having a debate tonight, but on what policy?

AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.

A thought crossed my mind -The two nationalist party leaders, Wood and Sturgeon, may both fare quite well ‘at home’ in the debates, but register virtually no movement in the national polls which I suspect will be dwarfed by the major 3

Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?

(apols in advance if this is a daft question)

SimonStClare said:

A thought crossed my mind -The two nationalist party leaders, Wood and Sturgeon, may both fare quite well ‘at home’ in the debates, but register virtually no movement in the national polls which I suspect will be dwarfed by the major 3

Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?

I'm partaking in two instant polls tonight. I think there maybe 5 different pollsters at it tonight.

BenM said:

Who will be declared the winner tonight?

Favourite has to be Cameron as leading in the polls.

I think Farage might be squashed tonight. I hope he is, the others now have plenty of ammo on him.

I'm still going with Sturgeon. Some in England will like her attacks on Cameron and Ed, and even if they don't like the idea of the SNP dictating to everyone else in a new parliament, she is impressive and new to many of those watching so in purely debate terms could swing it.

Also, I hope the pundits who want to get their 'no one really cares about the debates'/'the debates don't matter' stuff out the way now ahead of time, just to save the energy later.

Indigo said:

trublue said:

antifrank said:

So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?

Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.

He knows the game is up for UKIP. This election is going to end in disaster and with no real ground gained for them - apart from a couple of traitors who are going to live to regret their decision. My prediction is UKIP will cease to exist before the next election.

Yes, I quite agree, under a million votes last time, probably around 4 million this time, no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time, and a potential EU referendum in two years time, I can just see them fade away before my eyes.

My sarcasm meter is off the charts here! I think we're reaching critical levels.

Honestly, a couple of years ago I didn't think UKIP would get any MPs, and it might be a struggle to maintain momentum for a push for actual MPs in 2020. I still have a bet that they will win less than 5 which I am not worried about losing. But even if the full level of their potential is down a little on where it seemed about 6-8 months ago, they are in line for a big improvement, which even if there are disappointments (for instance, Farage not getting a seat) they are clearly in a better position to keep going with hope than was the case a few years ago.

And now to set the DVR for the debates. Not getting to watch it live should be good practice for election night, as I'm doing the assisting with the count thing, so will have to be able to live with not following the coverage as it happens.

nigel4england said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.

A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-has-twice-the-support-of-her-rivals-to-be-labour-choice-for-mayor-10151515.html

Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.

Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know

I wouldn't recommend putting any money on a man who lamented "it never happens to me".

Feargal Sharkey win the mayoral race for London? He can't even beat his cousin at Subbeteo.

Fergal Sharkey is also racist rhyming slang nowadays

Casino_Royale said:

We're having a debate tonight, but on what policy?

AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.

Maybe that's intentional? Like they wanted the party leaders to be able to react on the fly, and the manifestos will be hastily rewritten to make it so before publication?

I wouldn't put it past one or two of the parties.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SimonStClare said:

A thought crossed my mind -The two nationalist party leaders, Wood and Sturgeon, may both fare quite well ‘at home’ in the debates, but register virtually no movement in the national polls which I suspect will be dwarfed by the major 3

Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?

I'm partaking in two instant polls tonight. I think there maybe 5 different pollsters at it tonight.

Cheers TSE.