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  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,644
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    If UKIP were being systematically understated (due to the 'silence factor') that would have shown up in the Euro election results, and in by-elections.

    It has not. In both cases, UKIP did very slightly worse than opinion polls.
    Until Newark Ukip had been consistently understated maybe it's all moe
    I do believe UKIP is understated for methodological reasons: respondents who say they support UKIP are typically down-weighted because they either mis-remember who they voted for in 2010, and/or because they didn't vote in 2010.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    So the changes to that panel base are as follows

    Con -1, Lab -1, LD +2 UKIP +2, Greens -1

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W6836w1poll.pdf is their last poll I assume.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So the changes to that panel base are as follows

    Con -1, Lab -1, LD +2 UKIP +2, Greens -1

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W6836w1poll.pdf is their last poll I assume.
    That's last week's poll, this week's poll was from Tues to Thurs
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    If UKIP were being systematically understated (due to the 'silence factor') that would have shown up in the Euro election results, and in by-elections.

    It has not. In both cases, UKIP did very slightly worse than opinion polls.
    Until Newark Ukip had been consistently understated maybe it's all moe
    I do believe UKIP is understated for methodological reasons: respondents who say they support UKIP are typically down-weighted because they either mis-remember who they voted for in 2010, and/or because they didn't vote in 2010.

    Well yes the previous round of Ashcroft polls had Ukip ahead in 3/4 on actual responses but methodology had them ahead in only 1 leading to headlines of doom etc

    I could well be wrong but I based a lot if my betting on the assumption that methodology for Ukip was a guess up, and people that don't like Ukip are eager to believe it

    6/4 10%+
    6/4 to beat LD

    etc etc
  • Plato said:

    This month's edition of Men's Health has three putative MPs shaping up.

    For those who've never read Men's Health - it's Cosmo for men - and my favourite read - I even subscribe.

    No-one seems to be commenting on the fact the ST YOUGOV and Populus have sample sizes of 2000 while virtually all other polls are 1000. Surely a 2000 sample reduces Moe? Is it a coincidence or causal correlation that the 2000 sample polls seem to show larger labour scores?

    I have written a thread for Sunday about why (sample) size doesn't matter, it is what you do with it that counts.
    Sounds like an article straight from the pages of Cosmopolitan …! ;)
    So is it full of articles about how to shag and how to ask for a pay rise (these being separate conversations obvs)?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
  • Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Quite. In the same way, some people don't tell Jehovah's Witnesses to sod off. They say they're a bit busy and some other time.

    My mother bangs on about Nigel Expenses all the time and has yet to realise that people agree with her so it will stop.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,644
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    If UKIP were being systematically understated (due to the 'silence factor') that would have shown up in the Euro election results, and in by-elections.

    It has not. In both cases, UKIP did very slightly worse than opinion polls.
    Until Newark Ukip had been consistently understated maybe it's all moe
    I do believe UKIP is understated for methodological reasons: respondents who say they support UKIP are typically down-weighted because they either mis-remember who they voted for in 2010, and/or because they didn't vote in 2010.

    Well yes the previous round of Ashcroft polls had Ukip ahead in 3/4 on actual responses but methodology had them ahead in only 1 leading to headlines of doom etc

    I could well be wrong but I based a lot if my betting on the assumption that methodology for Ukip was a guess up, and people that don't like Ukip are eager to believe it

    6/4 10%+
    6/4 to beat LD

    etc etc
    I think it'll be UKIP 13-15%, and LibDems 10-11%

    So I think your UKIP to beat LibDem bet is safe. Unfortunately, I think your bets with me on LibDem share are losers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    We await the next thread header "Labour lose lead" with unbated breath. :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Previous days we've discussed zero hours contracts, business leaders backing this party and that, and so on. Now the media's gearing up for it's super important media event, and afterwards there'll endless tedious analysis of every little thing.

    Humbug to the debate.

    Anyway, at least there's only one 'proper' one,
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    Fwiw 100% of my office, excluding myself, is voting UKIP (Sample of 2).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,644
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    If it is the most hated party, that doesn't bode well for 2020. UKIP runs the risk of the FN in France, where it was the number two party in the country with 28% or so of the vote, but won just 1.5% of seats.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    If UKIP were being systematically understated (due to the 'silence factor') that would have shown up in the Euro election results, and in by-elections.

    It has not. In both cases, UKIP did very slightly worse than opinion polls.
    Until Newark Ukip had been consistently understated maybe it's all moe
    I do believe UKIP is understated for methodological reasons: respondents who say they support UKIP are typically down-weighted because they either mis-remember who they voted for in 2010, and/or because they didn't vote in 2010.

    Well yes the previous round of Ashcroft polls had Ukip ahead in 3/4 on actual responses but methodology had them ahead in only 1 leading to headlines of doom etc

    I could well be wrong but I based a lot if my betting on the assumption that methodology for Ukip was a guess up, and people that don't like Ukip are eager to believe it

    6/4 10%+
    6/4 to beat LD

    etc etc
    I think it'll be UKIP 13-15%, and LibDems 10-11%

    So I think your UKIP to beat LibDem bet is safe. Unfortunately, I think your bets with me on LibDem share are losers.
    I wouldn't disagree with those vote shares - but what do you think the seat tallys will be for each of them at those levels?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,214
    So, 4 questions in the debate tonight. One on electoral reform, one on House of Lords reform and two on minor issues.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,644
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    Fwiw 100% of my office, excluding myself, is voting UKIP (Sample of 2).
    Are you included in the sample? Or is it a single person other than you? :-)

    What's the MOE on a poll of two?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717
    edited April 2015
    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    As a leftie-LD I agree with both Polruan’s feelings and Weejohnnie’s logic. I think if we could wind back to 2010 and Cameron, as leader of the largest party forms a minority Govenrment, with the LD’s giving C&S, that even given the state at the time of the Labour party, we’d see a massive loss of market confidence by about September.

    So I don’t feel betrayed by Clegg leading the LD’s into coalition. I do feel though that he significantly underplayed his hand, and that he made a major mistake by not insisting on one of the “Great Offices"
  • rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    Fwiw 100% of my office, excluding myself, is voting UKIP (Sample of 2).
    Are you included in the sample? Or is it a single person other than you? :-)

    What's the MOE on a poll of two?
    69.3%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,644

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    Fwiw 100% of my office, excluding myself, is voting UKIP (Sample of 2).
    Are you included in the sample? Or is it a single person other than you? :-)

    What's the MOE on a poll of two?
    69.3%
    Wow! So that means that there is an 80% chance of UKIP getting at least 30.7%!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rowenamason: Leaders' debate: Cameron, Miliband and Clegg may get more speaking time http://t.co/1fPfcm1o6A
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    Fwiw 100% of my office, excluding myself, is voting UKIP (Sample of 2).
    Are you included in the sample? Or is it a single person other than you? :-)

    What's the MOE on a poll of two?
    69.3%
    Wow! So that means that there is an 80% chance of UKIP getting at least 30.7%!
    Last year the Times did an article based on a focus group of 6, your father and I worked out that had a MoE of 40%

    http://www.comres.co.uk/our-work/margin-of-error-calculator/
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Interesting point. Will Nick come out with a binding formula over who he will support post GE? I seem to remember he mentioned most votes (as opposed to most seats) last time
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @rowenamason: Leaders' debate: Cameron, Miliband and Clegg may get more speaking time http://t.co/1fPfcm1o6A


    Miliband and Cameron will. Who is going to bother to challenge Clegg?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    I see Guido Fawkes has taken the Web back to 1998 with the addition of a Scrolling Marquee.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    People like to make other people happy and often tell them what they think they want to hear.
    Ukip are the most hated party, I doubt people are saying they're voting for them to keep activists happy

    I know plenty of people who are voting Ukip and have expressly said they wouldn't tell a stranger or work colleague that wasn't also a close friend, for fear of stigma
    Fwiw 100% of my office, excluding myself, is voting UKIP (Sample of 2).
    Are you included in the sample? Or is it a single person other than you? :-)

    What's the MOE on a poll of two?
    69.3%
    Wow! So that means that there is an 80% chance of UKIP getting at least 30.7%!
    Last year the Times did an article based on a focus group of 6, your father and I worked out that had a MoE of 40%

    http://www.comres.co.uk/our-work/margin-of-error-calculator/
    Although obviously the MoE is only correct if the sample is an unbiased selection from the population as a whole...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    With presumably just tonight's Yougov to come, this week has had four Conservative leads, two Labour leads, and three ties. A simple average gives Conservative 34.4%, Labour 33.7%, UKIP 13.4%.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Well, bloodied but unbowed, I'm bingoing again. This might be the triumph of hope over experience, but here's the selection:

    'Margaret Thatcher' BetFred @ 13.0 (odds no longer available)
    'Tony Blair' BetFred @ 11.0 (ditto)
    'Bedroom Tax' @ 1.22 Coral
    'Food Banks' @ 1.25 Sky
    'Living Wage' @ 1.29 Sky
    'I agree with Nicola' @ 5.0 Ladbrokes

    Anyone tempted to follow me should know I lost all 5 of my bets last week.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    snip

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    A question for PBers to seriously consider:

    Who are the secret UKIP supporters and voters?

    I was out and about this morning, in, of all places, Hampstead Heath and Belsize Park. I happened to have some spare UKIP leaflets with me and distributed them, ad hoc, among the coffee drinkers of a local venue. I got speaking with a few people, and lo and behold, about 50% of those that I spoke to said that they were going to vote UKIP come what may, but, and here's the twist, don't tell anybody about it.

    It also happened to my wife at her hairdressers yesterday, where the owner confessed that he was voting UKIP ( no prompting ) but keeping the fact to himself.

    There must be many, many voters also contemplating voting UKIP, but keeping shtum. How many? We will find out on May 8th.

    If UKIP were being systematically understated (due to the 'silence factor') that would have shown up in the Euro election results, and in by-elections.

    It has not. In both cases, UKIP did very slightly worse than opinion polls.
    Until Newark Ukip had been consistently understated maybe it's all moe
    I do believe UKIP is understated for methodological reasons: respondents who say they support UKIP are typically down-weighted because they either mis-remember who they voted for in 2010, and/or because they didn't vote in 2010.

    Well yes the previous round of Ashcroft polls had Ukip ahead in 3/4 on actual responses but methodology had them ahead in only 1 leading to headlines of doom etc

    I could well be wrong but I based a lot if my betting on the assumption that methodology for Ukip was a guess up, and people that don't like Ukip are eager to believe it

    6/4 10%+
    6/4 to beat LD

    etc etc
    It's certainly possible there's a shy ukip vote - It's a risk factor to take into account when the exit poll gets published.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Bonus focus group from Lord Ashcroft:

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-voters-view-with-five-weeks-to-go/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,971
    edited April 2015

    Bonus focus group from Lord Ashcroft:

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-voters-view-with-five-weeks-to-go/

    Damn it, you win again, so that 2 to you, and 1 each for Antifrank and I

    Part of the problem for them was that, as we have heard elsewhere, many think the parties and leaders seem to have more in common with each other than any of them does with people like themselves. Asked what they thought David Cameron would do on an evening out, the answers were predictable enough: somewhere “flash but discreet” for fois gras and chateaubriand with expensive wine poured from a decanter. So what about Ed Miliband? “Exactly the same. They haven’t grafted. They’ve been lucky, privileged. They’re all public school boys”. Miliband went to a comprehensive, as it happens. “Did he really? Well, he’s a millionaire. I imagine his family has got money.”

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540

    John_N said:

    We're having a debate tonight, but on what policy?

    AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.

    Since when has electioneering been about appealing to voters' intellects?
    It's 95% about presentation and emotions.
    I want to know what policies I am (or am not) voting for. It's sort of the whole point of an election.
    After the tuition fees fiasco, parties are loathe to offer any concrete policies, especially in austere times.

    You're most likely to get aspirations and a few red lines of what we won't do.
    That really isn't good enough. I want to know what I'm voting for, and what I can reasonably expect from the party for whom I cast my vote if they form a government. I also want to know what the difference is between their aspirations and red-lines, if there are any.

    It really isn't acceptable for parties to be wishy-washy about what they'll do, and they simply implement whatever convenient after they're elected.

    It's precisely that sort of behaviour that turns people off politics.
    You're voting for David Cameron's skill, judgement, and charm.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Not sure if I'll put anything on, but these would interest me:
    Hell, Yes 7
    Running Scared 5
    You Can't Trust the Tories 5 [Sturgeon most likely but could conceivably be any of them save Cameron]
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Finally two lines say it all : -
    Murphy was asked to comment on the band’s decision.

    “Everybody knows the largest party forms the government,” he said.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Damn it, you win again, so that 2 to you, and 1 each for Antifrank and I

    Meh - I asked for "first date". "Evening out" is far tamer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,644
    Pong said:

    It's certainly possible there's a shy ukip vote - It's a risk factor to take into account when the exit poll gets published.

    Of course it's possible to get a shy-Kipper. But it's possible there are shy Tories and shy LibDemmers too. Unless the polls have systematically understated a party in recent by-elections or the Euros, however, I'd be sceptical of making too much of it.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Sean_F said:

    John_N said:

    We're having a debate tonight, but on what policy?

    AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.

    Since when has electioneering been about appealing to voters' intellects?
    It's 95% about presentation and emotions.
    I want to know what policies I am (or am not) voting for. It's sort of the whole point of an election.
    After the tuition fees fiasco, parties are loathe to offer any concrete policies, especially in austere times.

    You're most likely to get aspirations and a few red lines of what we won't do.
    That really isn't good enough. I want to know what I'm voting for, and what I can reasonably expect from the party for whom I cast my vote if they form a government. I also want to know what the difference is between their aspirations and red-lines, if there are any.

    It really isn't acceptable for parties to be wishy-washy about what they'll do, and they simply implement whatever convenient after they're elected.

    It's precisely that sort of behaviour that turns people off politics.
    You're voting for David Cameron's skill, judgement, and charm.
    So Dave 3, Nigel 0. I can live with that.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Blue_rog said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Interesting point. Will Nick come out with a binding formula over who he will support post GE? I seem to remember he mentioned most votes (as opposed to most seats) last time
    TBH I think Nick Clegg will only be in a position to support the Conservative Party. Having a Labour + Lib Dem Coalition relying on SNP supply and confidence would be anathema to the English. Also - with Lib Dems losing half their seats, the window of LibDem influence is very narrow.

    Looking at electoralcalculus (with the usual caveat) a 36-31 Tory lead makes the SNP king-makers (and presumably would let Ed ruin the country). If Labour drop down to 30 then the LDs come in - but if they drop to 29 then the Tories would have a majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    It's certainly possible there's a shy ukip vote - It's a risk factor to take into account when the exit poll gets published.

    Of course it's possible to get a shy-Kipper. But it's possible there are shy Tories and shy LibDemmers too. Unless the polls have systematically understated a party in recent by-elections or the Euros, however, I'd be sceptical of making too much of it.
    One thing we do know, in Israel there is an utterly stonking amount of Shy-Likud !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    weejonnie said:

    Blue_rog said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Interesting point. Will Nick come out with a binding formula over who he will support post GE? I seem to remember he mentioned most votes (as opposed to most seats) last time
    TBH I think Nick Clegg will only be in a position to support the Conservative Party. Having a Labour + Lib Dem Coalition relying on SNP supply and confidence would be anathema to the English. Also - with Lib Dems losing half their seats, the window of LibDem influence is very narrow.

    Looking at electoralcalculus (with the usual caveat) a 36-31 Tory lead makes the SNP king-makers (and presumably would let Ed ruin the country). If Labour drop down to 30 then the LDs come in - but if they drop to 29 then the Tories would have a majority.
    36-31 is Conservative minority territory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This genuinely difficult...

    @Andrew_ComRes: RT @thei100: Quiz: real life or The Thick of It? http://t.co/S0UQuftdeB http://t.co/F5PLZGSRiT
  • Damn it, you win again, so that 2 to you, and 1 each for Antifrank and I

    Meh - I asked for "first date". "Evening out" is far tamer.
    I've asked him to ask the focus group, if the party leaders were a tv show, what show would they be?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Because (and I appreciate you hold the opposite view on this) I don't feel I'm voting for the best manager and authorising them to act in whatever manner they believe serves the national interest today, I believe I'm voting for someone who has a certain set of a specific policies they will attempt to implement, and a general worldview/ideology which should inform the way they choose to govern once reacting to events etc.

    Rightly or wrongly, a lot of Labour switchers went yellow because they believed the LD posturing which was distinctively liberal and economically less beholden to neo-liberal tropes than the Labour party had by then become. That means that LD support for non-manifesto Tory policies on the NHS and various civil liberties issues felt like a betrayal.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pong said:

    It's certainly possible there's a shy ukip vote - It's a risk factor to take into account when the exit poll gets published.

    Of course it's possible to get a shy-Kipper. But it's possible there are shy Tories and shy LibDemmers too. Unless the polls have systematically understated a party in recent by-elections or the Euros, however, I'd be sceptical of making too much of it.
    One thing we do know, in Israel there is an utterly stonking amount of Shy-Likud !
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2015/mar/18/israel-election-why-were-the-exit-polls-wrong
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Because (and I appreciate you hold the opposite view on this) I don't feel I'm voting for the best manager and authorising them to act in whatever manner they believe serves the national interest today, I believe I'm voting for someone who has a certain set of a specific policies they will attempt to implement, and a general worldview/ideology which should inform the way they choose to govern once reacting to events etc.

    Rightly or wrongly, a lot of Labour switchers went yellow because they believed the LD posturing which was distinctively liberal and economically less beholden to neo-liberal tropes than the Labour party had by then become. That means that LD support for non-manifesto Tory policies on the NHS and various civil liberties issues felt like a betrayal.
    Coalition inevitably involves compromise. Just wait until a Labour/SNP government has to compromise.
  • I think his Lordship will be going back to the Con/Lab Marginals.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Blue_rog said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Interesting point. Will Nick come out with a binding formula over who he will support post GE? I seem to remember he mentioned most votes (as opposed to most seats) last time
    TBH I think Nick Clegg will only be in a position to support the Conservative Party. Having a Labour + Lib Dem Coalition relying on SNP supply and confidence would be anathema to the English. Also - with Lib Dems losing half their seats, the window of LibDem influence is very narrow.

    Looking at electoralcalculus (with the usual caveat) a 36-31 Tory lead makes the SNP king-makers (and presumably would let Ed ruin the country). If Labour drop down to 30 then the LDs come in - but if they drop to 29 then the Tories would have a majority.
    36-31 is Conservative minority territory.
    36-31 is on the threshold of Conservative majority territory.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    weejonnie said:

    Blue_rog said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Interesting point. Will Nick come out with a binding formula over who he will support post GE? I seem to remember he mentioned most votes (as opposed to most seats) last time
    TBH I think Nick Clegg will only be in a position to support the Conservative Party. Having a Labour + Lib Dem Coalition relying on SNP supply and confidence would be anathema to the English. Also - with Lib Dems losing half their seats, the window of LibDem influence is very narrow.

    Looking at electoralcalculus (with the usual caveat) a 36-31 Tory lead makes the SNP king-makers (and presumably would let Ed ruin the country). If Labour drop down to 30 then the LDs come in - but if they drop to 29 then the Tories would have a majority.
    36-31 is Conservative minority territory.
    Sounds a bit like fantasy to me.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Because (and I appreciate you hold the opposite view on this) I don't feel I'm voting for the best manager and authorising them to act in whatever manner they believe serves the national interest today, I believe I'm voting for someone who has a certain set of a specific policies they will attempt to implement, and a general worldview/ideology which should inform the way they choose to govern once reacting to events etc.

    Rightly or wrongly, a lot of Labour switchers went yellow because they believed the LD posturing which was distinctively liberal and economically less beholden to neo-liberal tropes than the Labour party had by then become. That means that LD support for non-manifesto Tory policies on the NHS and various civil liberties issues felt like a betrayal.
    Coalition inevitably involves compromise. Just wait until a Labour/SNP government has to compromise.
    Of course it does. But there's a difference between compromise and almost gleeful abandonment of your apparent principles to facilitate measures that your coalition partners thought were sufficiently extreme that they ruled them out in advance.

    For example, I'd expect a Labour-SNP relationship to lead to some change in the stance of both parties on a number of issues (for example one of them's going to have to lose an argument on Trident) but if I was an SNP voter I'd be pretty unimpressed if the SNP abandoned the independence agenda in exchange for an office and a shiny car.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717
    weejonnie said:

    Blue_rog said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Interesting point. Will Nick come out with a binding formula over who he will support post GE? I seem to remember he mentioned most votes (as opposed to most seats) last time
    TBH I think Nick Clegg will only be in a position to support the Conservative Party. Having a Labour + Lib Dem Coalition relying on SNP supply and confidence would be anathema to the English. Also - with Lib Dems losing half their seats, the window of LibDem influence is very narrow.

    Looking at electoralcalculus (with the usual caveat) a 36-31 Tory lead makes the SNP king-makers (and presumably would let Ed ruin the country). If Labour drop down to 30 then the LDs come in - but if they drop to 29 then the Tories would have a majority.
    Whoever "won" in Feb 74 and May 2010 it was obvious who'd lost. Tories in '74, Labour in 2010.
    If LD's lose half, or nearly half their sesats, that counts as "lose" in my book. Sadly.
    If the Tories lose a net 10% of theirs thay can't be said to have "won". Especially if 10 of teir gains arre rom the LD's.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    YouGov calls Broxtowe for Labour - but don't get excited, it's a "Nowcast" and not based on local polling but on "detailed demographics and voting intentions from over 150,000 interviews nationwide".

    https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/78/nowcast/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,717
    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:

    Polruan said:

    weejonnie said:



    I think in that respect the LDs will probably go for another coalition - they have worked with the Tories before and it won't be the shock it was to the lefty-liberals that 2010 was.

    I'm surprised at this apparent abandonment of any hope of retaining the 2010 ex-Labour switchers. I mean they (we) feel incredibly betrayed by Clegg, but if push comes to shove are likely to think very seriously about supporting a LD against a Tory in a 2-way fight. This kind of statement pushes them another step towards concluding that it's no worse having a Tory MP than a LD and voting for a Labour no-hoper to at least increase the Lab votes total.
    Why do you feel betrayed by Clegg? Because he joined with the Tories, rather than Labour to make the only sustainable Government? The maths didn't work any other way. Sometimes you have to accept the grim algebra of necessity.
    Because (and I appreciate you hold the opposite view on this) I don't feel I'm voting for the best manager and authorising them to act in whatever manner they believe serves the national interest today, I believe I'm voting for someone who has a certain set of a specific policies they will attempt to implement, and a general worldview/ideology which should inform the way they choose to govern once reacting to events etc.

    Rightly or wrongly, a lot of Labour switchers went yellow because they believed the LD posturing which was distinctively liberal and economically less beholden to neo-liberal tropes than the Labour party had by then become. That means that LD support for non-manifesto Tory policies on the NHS and various civil liberties issues felt like a betrayal.
    Coalition inevitably involves compromise. Just wait until a Labour/SNP government has to compromise.
    Of course it does. But there's a difference between compromise and almost gleeful abandonment of your apparent principles to facilitate measures that your coalition partners thought were sufficiently extreme that they ruled them out in advance.

    For example, I'd expect a Labour-SNP relationship to lead to some change in the stance of both parties on a number of issues (for example one of them's going to have to lose an argument on Trident) but if I was an SNP voter I'd be pretty unimpressed if the SNP abandoned the independence agenda in exchange for an office and a shiny car.
    Just for a handul of silver he left us. Just for a ribbon to hang on his coat.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunNation: Exclusive: Al Murray SUES Nigel Farage http://t.co/Kk2psBrWj2 #SunNation http://t.co/MWoT3f3WRp
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    YouGov calls Broxtowe for Labour - but don't get excited, it's a "Nowcast" and not based on local polling but on "detailed demographics and voting intentions from over 150,000 interviews nationwide".

    https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/78/nowcast/

    I'm reminded of Gollum drooling over 'my precious'.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    Scott_P said:

    @SunNation: Exclusive: Al Murray SUES Nigel Farage http://t.co/Kk2psBrWj2 #SunNation http://t.co/MWoT3f3WRp

    And (elsewhere on the same site) poor Mr F is to have a runin with Judge Dredd.

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited April 2015
    I've just had a bet on the winner of tonight's UK General Election leaders' debate race.

    There have been three similar races - all run in 2010 and only two of the seven runners in tonight's race ran in those races - both contesting all three contest. They were Cameron and Clegg. The only other previous runner, Brown, retired injured soon afterwards but one of his stablemates, Miliband, is turning out for the same connections.

    Previous experience can count for a lot in these contests. Clegg won the first of the three previous races held in 2010 and was in a photo finish with Cameron for the second contest with Cameron winning the final event.

    With seven runners this time it's a different sort of contest and there will be quite a bit of jockeying for position and also more likelihood of interference. The effects of the draw are as yet unknown. Cameron's outside draw may keep him out of trouble but he could risk getting left off the pace.

    At the end of the day I think previous racecourse experience could win it for either Cameron or Clegg and Farage, first time out and a novice, looks like a short priced favourite worth taking on.

    Clegg has shown he goes well fresh winning first time out previously and looks to be the runner with the best form in the book so at 14.0 on Betfair he's the bet for me.

    I'm on!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bonus focus group from Lord Ashcroft:

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-voters-view-with-five-weeks-to-go/

    Damn it, you win again, so that 2 to you, and 1 each for Antifrank and I

    Part of the problem for them was that, as we have heard elsewhere, many think the parties and leaders seem to have more in common with each other than any of them does with people like themselves. Asked what they thought David Cameron would do on an evening out, the answers were predictable enough: somewhere “flash but discreet” for fois gras and chateaubriand with expensive wine poured from a decanter. So what about Ed Miliband? “Exactly the same. They haven’t grafted. They’ve been lucky, privileged. They’re all public school boys”. Miliband went to a comprehensive, as it happens. “Did he really? Well, he’s a millionaire. I imagine his family has got money.”

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”
    I'm calling out these focus groups as Ashcroft's little joke - or at least heavily prompted.

    I just don't believe that a focus group, unprompted, would have come up with chateaubriand and fois gros. (I can believe the "flash but discreet" comment)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not sure if I'll put anything on, but these would interest me:
    Hell, Yes 7
    Running Scared 5
    You Can't Trust the Tories 5 [Sturgeon most likely but could conceivably be any of them save Cameron]

    Given his backbenchers, I'm not sure I'd completely rule out Cameron saying that!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stjohn said:

    I've just had a bet on the winner of tonight's UK General Election leaders' debate.

    There have been three similar races - all run in 2010 and only two of the seven runners in tonight's race ran in those races - both contesting all three contest. Those were Cameron and Clegg. The only other previous runner, Brown, retired injured soon afterwards but one of his stablemates, Miliband, is turning out for the same connections.

    Previous experience can count for a lot in these contest. Clegg won the first of the three previous races held in 2010 and was in a photo finish with Cameron for the second contest with Cameron winning the final event.

    With seven runners this time it's a different sort of contest and there will be quite a bit of jockeying for position and also more likelihood of interference. The effects of the draw are as yet unknown. Cameron's outside draw may keep him out of trouble but he could risk getting left off the pace.

    At the end of the day I think previous racecourse experience could win it for either Cameron or Clegg and Farage, first time out and a novice, looks like a short priced favourite worth taking on.

    Clegg has shown he goes well fresh winning first time out previously and looks to be the runner with the best form in the book so at 14.0 on Betfair he's the bet for me.

    I'm on!

    Wouldnt back Farage myself but you seem to forget he is not a novice. He wiped the floor with your tip (on both of their seasonal debuts) in a race last spring
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    isam said:

    stjohn said:

    I've just had a bet on the winner of tonight's UK General Election leaders' debate.

    There have been three similar races - all run in 2010 and only two of the seven runners in tonight's race ran in those races - both contesting all three contest. Those were Cameron and Clegg. The only other previous runner, Brown, retired injured soon afterwards but one of his stablemates, Miliband, is turning out for the same connections.

    Previous experience can count for a lot in these contest. Clegg won the first of the three previous races held in 2010 and was in a photo finish with Cameron for the second contest with Cameron winning the final event.

    With seven runners this time it's a different sort of contest and there will be quite a bit of jockeying for position and also more likelihood of interference. The effects of the draw are as yet unknown. Cameron's outside draw may keep him out of trouble but he could risk getting left off the pace.

    At the end of the day I think previous racecourse experience could win it for either Cameron or Clegg and Farage, first time out and a novice, looks like a short priced favourite worth taking on.

    Clegg has shown he goes well fresh winning first time out previously and looks to be the runner with the best form in the book so at 14.0 on Betfair he's the bet for me.

    I'm on!

    Wouldnt back Farage myself but you seem to forget he is not a novice. He wiped the floor with your tip (on both of their seasonal debuts) in a race last spring
    That was a conditions race over a different trip and Farage was running on ground that he was known to favour.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well Farage has some good news after all the buckets thrown at UKIP over the past few weeks.
    Al Murray's shark jumping will be decided in the courts way after the election but the publicity will do Farage no harm.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    After Ed purloined my I am strong leader because I stood up to the Americans over Syria I merely wonder what other arguments of mine he will utilise.

    Cameron has to be dreading foreign policy coming up, the only one who has thought his Blairesque military adventures were a good idea and in the national interest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    I see it is all happy families at the Telegraph again...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Remember, these people want to run the country...

    @SamCoatesTimes: Ed Miliband sends aide to by new shoes for him from Clarks in Manchester City Centre (& she couldn't decide which ) http://t.co/hKMztA6jTU
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    Remember, these people want to run the country...

    @SamCoatesTimes: Ed Miliband sends aide to by new shoes for him from Clarks in Manchester City Centre (& she couldn't decide which ) http://t.co/hKMztA6jTU

    I hope we're not paying for those on expenses.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Scott_P said:

    Remember, these people want to run the country...

    @SamCoatesTimes: Ed Miliband sends aide to by new shoes for him from Clarks in Manchester City Centre (& she couldn't decide which ) http://t.co/hKMztA6jTU

    Outrageous. Clearly they should not be allowed to wear shoes. Such hypocrisy. Or something.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Never mind the debates. Look what's about to come hurtling over the horizon.

    'Greece will go bankrupt in seven days, government officials have told their creditors as the fragile trust between the debtor country and its lenders shows no signs of repairing.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11510976/Trust-frays-in-bail-out-talks-as-Varoufakis-slams-lenders-for-leaking-reforms.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Rochester and Strood:

    NOWCAST Last updated Apr 2, 2015
    No constituency vote share estimations due to hyperlocal factors.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Al Murray's cunning stunt unravels.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Haha Hornchurch and Upminster fav newspapers

    The Sun
    Metro
    London Evening Standard
    The Daily Mail
    The Mail on Sunday

    https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/222/profile/news
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Never mind the debates. Look what's about to come hurtling over the horizon.

    'Greece will go bankrupt in seven days, government officials have told their creditors as the fragile trust between the debtor country and its lenders shows no signs of repairing.'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11510976/Trust-frays-in-bail-out-talks-as-Varoufakis-slams-lenders-for-leaking-reforms.html

    I don't think so, the EWG has decided to meet on Wednesday night till Thursday morning, and Tsipras will be in Moscow on the same day.
    So either the europeans will cough up money to Greece literally on the last minute or Tsipras might get some petty cash from Russia to kick the can for another month or two.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Charles said:

    Bonus focus group from Lord Ashcroft:

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-voters-view-with-five-weeks-to-go/

    Damn it, you win again, so that 2 to you, and 1 each for Antifrank and I

    Part of the problem for them was that, as we have heard elsewhere, many think the parties and leaders seem to have more in common with each other than any of them does with people like themselves. Asked what they thought David Cameron would do on an evening out, the answers were predictable enough: somewhere “flash but discreet” for fois gras and chateaubriand with expensive wine poured from a decanter. So what about Ed Miliband? “Exactly the same. They haven’t grafted. They’ve been lucky, privileged. They’re all public school boys”. Miliband went to a comprehensive, as it happens. “Did he really? Well, he’s a millionaire. I imagine his family has got money.”

    Others struggled with the idea of Miliband going out to enjoy himself: “I can’t imagine him in a pub. He doesn’t strike me as someone who ever goes out or has the slightest bit of fun, ever.” How about Nick Clegg? “He has to stay at home. His wife won’t let him out because he has to do the dishes. She’s super-fierce.” Nevertheless he was “the most normal, as much as they can be”, and the one of the four that people would most like to spend the evening with. Nigel Farage, if not in his usual pub, would go “to Brick Lane for a curry. But he won’t tell anyone.”
    I'm calling out these focus groups as Ashcroft's little joke - or at least heavily prompted.

    I just don't believe that a focus group, unprompted, would have come up with chateaubriand and fois gros. (I can believe the "flash but discreet" comment)
    The way I read it the bits in quotes are direct quotes from the groups - the other bits are embellishments/ re-wordings to give a flavour of the discussion. Very funny and telling most of the time though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Bit surprised that at 5pm Sky had the Kenyan terrorist attack first, but the BBC went with the debate.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    dr_spyn said:

    Al Murray's cunning stunt unravels.

    Al Murray is indeed a cunning stunt.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Lets hope Ed can get through tonight.

    Another day down and another day without any cock ups. Which means another day closer to Ed is PM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015

    Bit surprised that at 5pm Sky had the Kenyan terrorist attack first, but the BBC went with the debate.

    Terrorist attack...no such thing according to the BBC. I think you mean "attack by militants".
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    Haha Hornchurch and Upminster fav newspapers

    The Sun
    Metro
    London Evening Standard
    The Daily Mail
    The Mail on Sunday

    https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/222/profile/news

    Commuters -- Metro is free on the tube on the way to work, and the Standard is free on the way home.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread Marf
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Urquhart, thought you might be taking the piss, but the article appears to back you up:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32169080
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015

    Scott_P said:

    Remember, these people want to run the country...

    @SamCoatesTimes: Ed Miliband sends aide to by new shoes for him from Clarks in Manchester City Centre (& she couldn't decide which ) http://t.co/hKMztA6jTU

    Outrageous. Clearly they should not be allowed to wear shoes. Such hypocrisy. Or something.

    I think we need to know precisely how indecisive EdM's aide was. THE COUNTRY DESERVES TO KNOW THE TRUTH. Did she compare 2 pairs or 3? How long is the right amount of time for someone to ponder a shoe purchase before they become unsuitable to advise a future prime minister? I honestly don't know, but if Mr Coates is tweeting about it, it must be important.

    Anyway, I just wanted to say thanks for posting that tweet @Scott_P

    I was starting to warm to Ed a bit, but you've planted just enough doubt in my mind to see sense and stick with Dave. I'm sure Dave's aide would never think of buying his shoes from Clarks - and even if they did, they'd walk straight into the shop and pick the most brilliant pair of shoes without even thinking about it.

    So yeah, thanks Scott. Keep up the good work - and please do keep posting those tweets.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak · 2m 2 minutes ago
    #Rochdale councillor Shakil #Ahmed who is the father of one of the Britons detained in #Turkey says he thought his son was in Birmingham.

    Chant of does your father know you're here. Will it be difficult for Labour?

This discussion has been closed.