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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Debate day – some facts and figures
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Debate day – some facts and figures
Like the first debate in 2010 the location is Manchester. This time at Media City Salford Quays pic.twitter.com/EQmo5pR9kO
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But they cheer up when they find to get back to London from Manchester, they are being advised to go via the great city of Sheffield instead
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/583594687530958848
Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.
(and Sky News too)
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/pages/bombshell/
The 1992 Conservatives want their bombs back though.
For those wot missed it last night.
Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March 2015: Lab 33.6 (+0.1), Con 33.5 (+1.1), UKIP 14.0 (-0.5), LD 7.7 (nc), Grn 5.6 (-0.7)
Lab lead slashed by 1.1% from 1.2% to only 0.1%
Cons on their highest monthly score since ELBOW started
UKIP on their lowest score since August
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
Another one on blame for cuts in "local services" which has shifted decisively from net +19 Central government to just +10 Central government. Could be evidence that people don't blame the current government for the cuts and the gap between "current government" and "previous Labour government" will have widened again should the question be asked.
https://twitter.com/willscobie/status/583599778426036225
Hell no!
What happens this time will depend on the size of the gasm. If the post-debate polls put UKIP in the lead or nearly in the lead (not at all unimaginable), and then the front pages on Fri Sat and Sun carry big photos of Farage, with headlines such as "CAN HE WIN?", "UKIP PREDICTED TO WIN 100 SEATS", and "UKIP TIPPED TO HOLD BALANCE IN HUNG PARLIAMENT", then the relative showings and pollings of other parties locally aren't going to matter much.
In the aftermath of the debate, UKIP are likely to poll aove 20% in some polls. Very probably ones with crap methodologies, but that's not that relevant.
I wonder what % of the electorate in marginals actually know they live in a marginal and if they do, what kind. Which isn't to say that you have to know something for it to affect your behaviour. But still.
I guess the big question is, will Paddy Power payout early on the General Election?
If they don't, you know it is too close to call.
There were 51 polls with fieldwork end-dates between 1st March and 31st March, compared with only 43 in each of February and January. Total sample 64,789.
The Tories are on their highest monthly score since the ELBOW series started
Labour's monthly lead has been slashed from 1.2% in Feb to 0.1% in March (rounded)
Despite this, Labour on their highest monthly score since December
LibDems unchanged from Feb (to 2 decimals!), and on their highest level since October
UKIP are on their lowest monthly score since August
Greens are on their lowest monthly score since November
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208/photo/1
During my BBC News day ahead of Feb 1974 election Enocch Powell came into Broadcasting House for a Today interview. As he was being taken from the green room to the studio he was asked if he wanted to pop into the loo. His response "No. I think better on a full bladder"
The Sportingindex spread of 5-7 seats is bound to hurtle upwards, post-debate. Won't surprise me if it touches 50 before the holiday weekend is over.
I don't have any particular view on how UKIP will do in the election itself.
Will be away in Holland during Easter, but hope to publish the Easter ELBOW (week-ending 5th April) by Tuesday at the latest!
I mean yes, it's funny, but it's a disgraceful way for a politician to behave.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg
I know all the polls say UKIP but I have a feeling LD's may just snatch it and wonder what the odds are.
EDIT: On vote share, not seats. Obviously LD's should be strong favourites on seats vs UKIP but not so much vs SNP.
You don't beat a popular government with scare stories. It just cannot possibly work.
5/2 on the Lib Dems
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-ukip-v-lib-dem
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
Weakest Link Special, tonight at 8pm on ITV. #leadersdebate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-3_ytSnSEc&feature=youtu.be
They really (and I mean) really dropped the ball around 2000...
Their boss worked for David Cameron, they were the in house pollsters for Better Together, and their private polls got the indyref spot on.
Populus phone polls were very good, especially at the last election, it was gutting that the Times dumped them as their pollster in 2013.
All pollsters have house effects, that is wise to look at polls in a global sense, and not get over excited by just one poll.
See Saturday night and people overreacted to one YouGov poll
“The MP is the employer, it is a matter for them whether they choose to use a zero-hours contract.”
Apparently according to Tristram Hunt, IPSA isn't fit for purpose. Well who set it up?
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-has-twice-the-support-of-her-rivals-to-be-labour-choice-for-mayor-10151515.html
But I guess you are on to something - out of 26 Populus polls so far this year, 23 have been Lab leads.
Cameron has won overall though by getting the debates out of the way early. There's no denying that.
The one thing the Tories want in the campaign is control. Control the agenda, keep their message precise. A debate right at the end of the campaign would've been an uncontrollable event. A four-piece debate with Miliband, Clegg and Farage, would've been little short of disastrous for the Tories.
The whole thing has undoubtedly worked in Cameron's favour.
Overall, I still think the Tories will be slightly ahead in the GE vote and that Labour will be slightly ahead in the seats. Although the economic news has been kind to the Tories so far; that bodes well for them.
Favourite has to be Cameron as leading in the polls.
I think Farage might be squashed tonight. I hope he is, the others now have plenty of ammo on him.
"no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time"
How many PDTs?
I defy anybody to stare at 20-odd million campaign leaflets and the workload involved and ever vote for that party again!
AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.
I am out and about this weekend so I will try and post an update as i know many of you have a financial interest on this seat .
Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?
(apols in advance if this is a daft question)
Not to mention the message the British people gave to the coalition and to the Labour Party by placing UKIP first in the euros. (As it happens, I don't agree with that message, but that doesn't mean it wasn't sent.)
I've recently had the Labour mailshot through with five "pledges".
Nothing about controlling immigration though.
Also, I hope the pundits who want to get their 'no one really cares about the debates'/'the debates don't matter' stuff out the way now ahead of time, just to save the energy later. My sarcasm meter is off the charts here! I think we're reaching critical levels.
Honestly, a couple of years ago I didn't think UKIP would get any MPs, and it might be a struggle to maintain momentum for a push for actual MPs in 2020. I still have a bet that they will win less than 5 which I am not worried about losing. But even if the full level of their potential is down a little on where it seemed about 6-8 months ago, they are in line for a big improvement, which even if there are disappointments (for instance, Farage not getting a seat) they are clearly in a better position to keep going with hope than was the case a few years ago.
And now to set the DVR for the debates. Not getting to watch it live should be good practice for election night, as I'm doing the assisting with the count thing, so will have to be able to live with not following the coverage as it happens.
I reckon this would be about 1/2 a Con Hold if there hadn't been a by-election (maybe 4/6 if Mensch had stood down at the GE).
Clearly the price should be much bigger now with Lab incumbency but is 3/1 too big?
If UKIP are indeed on the slide, and the Tories are rising would be worth a punt
I wouldn't put it past one or two of the parties.
It's 95% about presentation and emotions.
Cheers TSE.
My bet is that this will not have anything like the impact of 2010 because the seven way debate means no-one is getting that much time. I also suspect that the most successful strategy is to be eminently positive: if you don't get your own message across, then people won't remember you as being particularly brilliant. In many ways, this should benefit those with simple messages: i.e. the Scots and Welsh nationalists and possibly the Greens.
Like everyone else here, I suspect Farage will perform reasonably well: that being said, I don't fancy the odds. He is likely to get very negative "insta-poll" clicks from LibDem supporters, the Greens, along with the metropolitan sides of the Labour Party and the Conservative Party. For that reason, I'm not long him. Everyone hates Clegg, which makes him unattractive. That being said, I'm told he's personally very persuasive when he makes the case for the coalition, so he might exceed expectations. But I think I'd bet on someone like the PC leader (or even Natalie Bennett) because it's a crap shot, and who hates those parties?