Also in last night's YouGov some encouraging internals, approval now just -10 and the Tories have a net +60 approval from their 2010 vote, quite a high level for them.
Another one on blame for cuts in "local services" which has shifted decisively from net +19 Central government to just +10 Central government. Could be evidence that people don't blame the current government for the cuts and the gap between "current government" and "previous Labour government" will have widened again should the question be asked.
"UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention [...] The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result."
What happens this time will depend on the size of the gasm. If the post-debate polls put UKIP in the lead or nearly in the lead (not at all unimaginable), and then the front pages on Fri Sat and Sun carry big photos of Farage, with headlines such as "CAN HE WIN?", "UKIP PREDICTED TO WIN 100 SEATS", and "UKIP TIPPED TO HOLD BALANCE IN HUNG PARLIAMENT", then the relative showings and pollings of other parties locally aren't going to matter much.
In the aftermath of the debate, UKIP are likely to poll aove 20% in some polls. Very probably ones with crap methodologies, but that's not that relevant.
I wonder what % of the electorate in marginals actually know they live in a marginal and if they do, what kind. Which isn't to say that you have to know something for it to affect your behaviour. But still.
Huzzah, Paddy Power have paid out early on some General Election bets.
I went onto their online chat yesterday to get them to settle the party leaders going into the election and John Bercow. Well done to them for doing that.
"UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention [...] The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result."
What happens this time will depend on the size of the gasm. If the post-debate polls put UKIP in the lead or nearly in the lead (not at all unimaginable), and then the front pages on Fri Sat and Sun carry big photos of Farage, with headlines such as "CAN HE WIN?", "UKIP PREDICTED TO WIN 100 SEATS", and "UKIP TIPPED TO HOLD BALANCE IN HUNG PARLIAMENT", then the relative showings and pollings of other parties locally aren't going to matter much.
In the aftermath of the debate, UKIP are likely to poll aove 20% in some polls. Very probably ones with crap methodologies, but that's not that relevant.
I wonder what % of the electorate in marginals actually know they live in a marginal and if they do, what kind. Which isn't to say that you have to know something for it to affect your behaviour. But still.
If you're following a strategy of backing UKIP on the SPIN, take profit before the GE happens I reckon. Personally I reckon its a technical buy but I'm staying out.
Huzzah, Paddy Power have paid out early on some General Election bets.
I went onto their online chat yesterday to get them to settle the party leaders going into the election and John Bercow. Well done to them for doing that.
Cheers.
I guess the big question is, will Paddy Power payout early on the General Election?
Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March facts and figures:
There were 51 polls with fieldwork end-dates between 1st March and 31st March, compared with only 43 in each of February and January. Total sample 64,789.
The Tories are on their highest monthly score since the ELBOW series started Labour's monthly lead has been slashed from 1.2% in Feb to 0.1% in March (rounded) Despite this, Labour on their highest monthly score since December LibDems unchanged from Feb (to 2 decimals!), and on their highest level since October UKIP are on their lowest monthly score since August Greens are on their lowest monthly score since November
That said he was dire on Radio 4 this morning, perhaps he's doing a rope-a-dope strategy today.
He ought to take a tip from Enoch.
During my BBC News day ahead of Feb 1974 election Enocch Powell came into Broadcasting House for a Today interview. As he was being taken from the green room to the studio he was asked if he wanted to pop into the loo. His response "No. I think better on a full bladder"
If you're following a strategy of backing UKIP on the SPIN, take profit before the GE happens I reckon. Personally I reckon its a technical buy but I'm staying out.
I'm planning to be out by Fri lunchtime, or by Sun afternoon at the latest. The Sportingindex spread of 5-7 seats is bound to hurtle upwards, post-debate. Won't surprise me if it touches 50 before the holiday weekend is over. I don't have any particular view on how UKIP will do in the election itself.
That said he was dire on Radio 4 this morning, perhaps he's doing a rope-a-dope strategy today.
He ought to take a tip from Enoch.
During my BBC News day ahead of Feb 1974 election Enocch Powell came into Broadcasting House for a Today interview. As he was being taken from the green room to the studio he was asked if he wanted to pop into the loo. His response "No. I think better on a full bladder"
Well there are those who said Enoch Powell was always full of piss and wind.
Ouch! I don't know whether to laugh or cry. He's saying "We're down to 5/1! Put a bet on us!" I mean yes, it's funny, but it's a disgraceful way for a politician to behave.
So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?
Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.
He knows the game is up for UKIP. This election is going to end in disaster and with no real ground gained for them - apart from a couple of traitors who are going to live to regret their decision. My prediction is UKIP will cease to exist before the next election.
The 1992 Conservatives want their bombs back though.
It's such a comical method of attack. Regardless of any truth they're trying to appeal to voters that already vote SNP, have put the SNP in government twice and haven't experienced anything but growing positivity in the Scottish Government.
You don't beat a popular government with scare stories. It just cannot possibly work.
It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.
It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.
They're not as bad as coral.
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.
They're not as bad as coral.
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
Coral are my favourite bookie in this election and not just for that Pandas bet.
It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.
They're not as bad as coral.
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
None of the original bookies have coped with the switch to online.... Ladbrokes is the weirdest one as they had very good digital people back in the late 1990's and a few patents that made doing things very difficult for everyone else.
They really (and I mean) really dropped the ball around 2000...
Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.
It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.
They're not as bad as coral.
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
The likes of Ladbrokes and Coral are in big trouble. Not only have the likes of Paddy Power and Bet365 come on strong, we will soon see Pinnacle Sports (at one time the biggest online bookie in the world) back in the market fully licensed under new ownership and the big beast in the online poker world, PokerStars, have this week just opened their online sports book.
It is...shame Ladbrokes as a business is a steaming pile of poo. Mullen until a few months ago was head of Ladbrokes Digital, an area where they have been particularly poor.
They're not as bad as coral.
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
Coral are my favourite bookie in this election and not just for that Pandas bet.
So long as their creditors don't pull the plug before May 8th.
Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.
Populus are highly respected.
Their boss worked for David Cameron, they were the in house pollsters for Better Together, and their private polls got the indyref spot on.
Populus phone polls were very good, especially at the last election, it was gutting that the Times dumped them as their pollster in 2013.
All pollsters have house effects, that is wise to look at polls in a global sense, and not get over excited by just one poll.
See Saturday night and people overreacted to one YouGov poll
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.
Well, They did have the two main parties tied on Monday. Also a tied in mid-March, and another tie in mid-February.
But I guess you are on to something - out of 26 Populus polls so far this year, 23 have been Lab leads.
I reckon Farage and Sturgeon will get a boost from the debates tonight. And that both the SNP and UKIP will get a small boost in the polls. UKIP will do so particularly at the expense of the Tories.
Cameron has won overall though by getting the debates out of the way early. There's no denying that.
The one thing the Tories want in the campaign is control. Control the agenda, keep their message precise. A debate right at the end of the campaign would've been an uncontrollable event. A four-piece debate with Miliband, Clegg and Farage, would've been little short of disastrous for the Tories.
The whole thing has undoubtedly worked in Cameron's favour.
Overall, I still think the Tories will be slightly ahead in the GE vote and that Labour will be slightly ahead in the seats. Although the economic news has been kind to the Tories so far; that bodes well for them.
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.
Perhaps they've got it absolutely right? Who knows....
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know
So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?
Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.
He knows the game is up for UKIP. This election is going to end in disaster and with no real ground gained for them - apart from a couple of traitors who are going to live to regret their decision. My prediction is UKIP will cease to exist before the next election.
Yes, I quite agree, under a million votes last time, probably around 4 million this time, no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time, and a potential EU referendum in two years time, I can just see them fade away before my eyes.
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know
I wouldn't recommend putting any money on a man who lamented "it never happens to me".
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know
I wouldn't recommend putting any money on a man who lamented "it never happens to me".
Feargal Sharkey win the mayoral race for London? He can't even beat his cousin at Subbeteo.
Serious question: why do people bother with populus? I don't know much about them, but I've seen comments all week suggesting polls like this would follow favouring Labour. Sure enough it happens and everyone is rightfully dismissing their methods.
I think you can only judge the poll "favours" Labour once you know the outcome of the GE - all you can say with certainty at the moment is the poll "shows a lead for" Labour, which may or may not be inaccurate. Not saying that I have a strong view on whether Populus have it right or not, but rejecting a dataset because it doesn't match other datasets is probably not smart. Apart from anything else, if you can model why and how it should diverge from other pollsters, you can adjust for that perceived bias.
So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?
Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.
He knows the game is up for UKIP. This election is going to end in disaster and with no real ground gained for them - apart from a couple of traitors who are going to live to regret their decision. My prediction is UKIP will cease to exist before the next election.
Yes, I quite agree, under a million votes last time, probably around 4 million this time, no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time, and a potential EU referendum in two years time, I can just see them fade away before my eyes.
"no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time"
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know
I wouldn't recommend putting any money on a man who lamented "it never happens to me".
Incidentally, I have been (heavily) involved in organising the printing of the campaign leaflets for a certain political party. Blinking heck, what a logistics operation.
I defy anybody to stare at 20-odd million campaign leaflets and the workload involved and ever vote for that party again!
A thought crossed my mind -The two nationalist party leaders, Wood and Sturgeon, may both fare quite well ‘at home’ in the debates, but register virtually no movement in the national polls which I suspect will be dwarfed by the major 3
Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?
(Farage) knows the game is up for UKIP. This election is going to end in disaster and with no real ground gained for them - apart from a couple of traitors who are going to live to regret their decision. My prediction is UKIP will cease to exist before the next election.
With polls showing that people think immigration is one of the top two issues facing the country, along with the economy and ahead of health? I suspect few who aren't "true blue" are going to feel after tonight's debate that Farage didn't whup Cameron's arse.
Not to mention the message the British people gave to the coalition and to the Labour Party by placing UKIP first in the euros. (As it happens, I don't agree with that message, but that doesn't mean it wasn't sent.)
A thought crossed my mind -The two nationalist party leaders, Wood and Sturgeon, may both fare quite well ‘at home’ in the debates, but register virtually no movement in the national polls which I suspect will be dwarfed by the major 3
Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?
I'm partaking in two instant polls tonight. I think there maybe 5 different pollsters at it tonight.
Incidentally, I have been (heavily) involved in organising the printing of the campaign leaflets for a certain political party. Blinking heck, what a logistics operation.
I defy anybody to stare at 20-odd million campaign leaflets and the workload involved and ever vote for that party again!
I've recently had the Labour mailshot through with five "pledges".
Favourite has to be Cameron as leading in the polls.
I think Farage might be squashed tonight. I hope he is, the others now have plenty of ammo on him.
I'm still going with Sturgeon. Some in England will like her attacks on Cameron and Ed, and even if they don't like the idea of the SNP dictating to everyone else in a new parliament, she is impressive and new to many of those watching so in purely debate terms could swing it.
Also, I hope the pundits who want to get their 'no one really cares about the debates'/'the debates don't matter' stuff out the way now ahead of time, just to save the energy later.
So Nigel Farage has supposedly done no mock debates, has undertaken little preparation and is going to enjoy a couple of G&Ts beforehand?
Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.
He knows the game is up for UKIP. This election is going to end in disaster and with no real ground gained for them - apart from a couple of traitors who are going to live to regret their decision. My prediction is UKIP will cease to exist before the next election.
Yes, I quite agree, under a million votes last time, probably around 4 million this time, no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time, and a potential EU referendum in two years time, I can just see them fade away before my eyes.
My sarcasm meter is off the charts here! I think we're reaching critical levels.
Honestly, a couple of years ago I didn't think UKIP would get any MPs, and it might be a struggle to maintain momentum for a push for actual MPs in 2020. I still have a bet that they will win less than 5 which I am not worried about losing. But even if the full level of their potential is down a little on where it seemed about 6-8 months ago, they are in line for a big improvement, which even if there are disappointments (for instance, Farage not getting a seat) they are clearly in a better position to keep going with hope than was the case a few years ago.
And now to set the DVR for the debates. Not getting to watch it live should be good practice for election night, as I'm doing the assisting with the count thing, so will have to be able to live with not following the coverage as it happens.
Dame Tessa Jowell has opened up a huge lead in the race to be Labour’s candidate for London Mayor — winning more than double the support of her closest rival.
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
Tessa is part of my mayoral portfolio. Her and Khan. I've even had a sniff of Lammy, but not Abbott - if I was a bookie I'd be top price on her for sure.
Stick your money on Feargal Sharkey at 50/1 with Shadsy, Feargal is up for the battle, he's got a good heart, you know
I wouldn't recommend putting any money on a man who lamented "it never happens to me".
Feargal Sharkey win the mayoral race for London? He can't even beat his cousin at Subbeteo.
Fergal Sharkey is also racist rhyming slang nowadays
We're having a debate tonight, but on what policy?
AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.
Maybe that's intentional? Like they wanted the party leaders to be able to react on the fly, and the manifestos will be hastily rewritten to make it so before publication?
A thought crossed my mind -The two nationalist party leaders, Wood and Sturgeon, may both fare quite well ‘at home’ in the debates, but register virtually no movement in the national polls which I suspect will be dwarfed by the major 3
Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?
I'm partaking in two instant polls tonight. I think there maybe 5 different pollsters at it tonight.
My bet is that this will not have anything like the impact of 2010 because the seven way debate means no-one is getting that much time. I also suspect that the most successful strategy is to be eminently positive: if you don't get your own message across, then people won't remember you as being particularly brilliant. In many ways, this should benefit those with simple messages: i.e. the Scots and Welsh nationalists and possibly the Greens.
Like everyone else here, I suspect Farage will perform reasonably well: that being said, I don't fancy the odds. He is likely to get very negative "insta-poll" clicks from LibDem supporters, the Greens, along with the metropolitan sides of the Labour Party and the Conservative Party. For that reason, I'm not long him. Everyone hates Clegg, which makes him unattractive. That being said, I'm told he's personally very persuasive when he makes the case for the coalition, so he might exceed expectations. But I think I'd bet on someone like the PC leader (or even Natalie Bennett) because it's a crap shot, and who hates those parties?
Comments
But they cheer up when they find to get back to London from Manchester, they are being advised to go via the great city of Sheffield instead
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/583594687530958848
Something tells me that we're being taken for a ride here.
(and Sky News too)
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/pages/bombshell/
The 1992 Conservatives want their bombs back though.
For those wot missed it last night.
Monthly "Super-ELBOW" for March 2015: Lab 33.6 (+0.1), Con 33.5 (+1.1), UKIP 14.0 (-0.5), LD 7.7 (nc), Grn 5.6 (-0.7)
Lab lead slashed by 1.1% from 1.2% to only 0.1%
Cons on their highest monthly score since ELBOW started
UKIP on their lowest score since August
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208
Another one on blame for cuts in "local services" which has shifted decisively from net +19 Central government to just +10 Central government. Could be evidence that people don't blame the current government for the cuts and the gap between "current government" and "previous Labour government" will have widened again should the question be asked.
https://twitter.com/willscobie/status/583599778426036225
Hell no!
What happens this time will depend on the size of the gasm. If the post-debate polls put UKIP in the lead or nearly in the lead (not at all unimaginable), and then the front pages on Fri Sat and Sun carry big photos of Farage, with headlines such as "CAN HE WIN?", "UKIP PREDICTED TO WIN 100 SEATS", and "UKIP TIPPED TO HOLD BALANCE IN HUNG PARLIAMENT", then the relative showings and pollings of other parties locally aren't going to matter much.
In the aftermath of the debate, UKIP are likely to poll aove 20% in some polls. Very probably ones with crap methodologies, but that's not that relevant.
I wonder what % of the electorate in marginals actually know they live in a marginal and if they do, what kind. Which isn't to say that you have to know something for it to affect your behaviour. But still.
I guess the big question is, will Paddy Power payout early on the General Election?
If they don't, you know it is too close to call.
There were 51 polls with fieldwork end-dates between 1st March and 31st March, compared with only 43 in each of February and January. Total sample 64,789.
The Tories are on their highest monthly score since the ELBOW series started
Labour's monthly lead has been slashed from 1.2% in Feb to 0.1% in March (rounded)
Despite this, Labour on their highest monthly score since December
LibDems unchanged from Feb (to 2 decimals!), and on their highest level since October
UKIP are on their lowest monthly score since August
Greens are on their lowest monthly score since November
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/583381055467614208/photo/1
During my BBC News day ahead of Feb 1974 election Enocch Powell came into Broadcasting House for a Today interview. As he was being taken from the green room to the studio he was asked if he wanted to pop into the loo. His response "No. I think better on a full bladder"
The Sportingindex spread of 5-7 seats is bound to hurtle upwards, post-debate. Won't surprise me if it touches 50 before the holiday weekend is over.
I don't have any particular view on how UKIP will do in the election itself.
Will be away in Holland during Easter, but hope to publish the Easter ELBOW (week-ending 5th April) by Tuesday at the latest!
I mean yes, it's funny, but it's a disgraceful way for a politician to behave.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics · 1m1 minute ago
This letter has gone to The Daily Telegraph today from Ladbrokes CEO Jim Mullen
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBljnPtWIAAi208.jpg
I know all the polls say UKIP but I have a feeling LD's may just snatch it and wonder what the odds are.
EDIT: On vote share, not seats. Obviously LD's should be strong favourites on seats vs UKIP but not so much vs SNP.
You don't beat a popular government with scare stories. It just cannot possibly work.
5/2 on the Lib Dems
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-ukip-v-lib-dem
You'd have thought they'd have this bookmaking business figured out by now.
Weakest Link Special, tonight at 8pm on ITV. #leadersdebate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-3_ytSnSEc&feature=youtu.be
They really (and I mean) really dropped the ball around 2000...
Their boss worked for David Cameron, they were the in house pollsters for Better Together, and their private polls got the indyref spot on.
Populus phone polls were very good, especially at the last election, it was gutting that the Times dumped them as their pollster in 2013.
All pollsters have house effects, that is wise to look at polls in a global sense, and not get over excited by just one poll.
See Saturday night and people overreacted to one YouGov poll
“The MP is the employer, it is a matter for them whether they choose to use a zero-hours contract.”
Apparently according to Tristram Hunt, IPSA isn't fit for purpose. Well who set it up?
A poll published today shows that the former culture secretary is now backed by 40 per cent of Labour supporters who have an opinion, her highest total yet. None of the three London MPs also in the race — Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan and David Lammy — managed to win more than 20 per cent backing.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-has-twice-the-support-of-her-rivals-to-be-labour-choice-for-mayor-10151515.html
But I guess you are on to something - out of 26 Populus polls so far this year, 23 have been Lab leads.
Cameron has won overall though by getting the debates out of the way early. There's no denying that.
The one thing the Tories want in the campaign is control. Control the agenda, keep their message precise. A debate right at the end of the campaign would've been an uncontrollable event. A four-piece debate with Miliband, Clegg and Farage, would've been little short of disastrous for the Tories.
The whole thing has undoubtedly worked in Cameron's favour.
Overall, I still think the Tories will be slightly ahead in the GE vote and that Labour will be slightly ahead in the seats. Although the economic news has been kind to the Tories so far; that bodes well for them.
Favourite has to be Cameron as leading in the polls.
I think Farage might be squashed tonight. I hope he is, the others now have plenty of ammo on him.
"no MPs before, probably between 2 and 5 this time"
How many PDTs?
I defy anybody to stare at 20-odd million campaign leaflets and the workload involved and ever vote for that party again!
AFAIK, no major political party has yet published their manifesto. I have no idea when they intend to do so either.
I am out and about this weekend so I will try and post an update as i know many of you have a financial interest on this seat .
Are they reliant on tonight's ‘worm’, or is there an alternative measure in place for quick post debate analysis ?
(apols in advance if this is a daft question)
Not to mention the message the British people gave to the coalition and to the Labour Party by placing UKIP first in the euros. (As it happens, I don't agree with that message, but that doesn't mean it wasn't sent.)
I've recently had the Labour mailshot through with five "pledges".
Nothing about controlling immigration though.
Also, I hope the pundits who want to get their 'no one really cares about the debates'/'the debates don't matter' stuff out the way now ahead of time, just to save the energy later. My sarcasm meter is off the charts here! I think we're reaching critical levels.
Honestly, a couple of years ago I didn't think UKIP would get any MPs, and it might be a struggle to maintain momentum for a push for actual MPs in 2020. I still have a bet that they will win less than 5 which I am not worried about losing. But even if the full level of their potential is down a little on where it seemed about 6-8 months ago, they are in line for a big improvement, which even if there are disappointments (for instance, Farage not getting a seat) they are clearly in a better position to keep going with hope than was the case a few years ago.
And now to set the DVR for the debates. Not getting to watch it live should be good practice for election night, as I'm doing the assisting with the count thing, so will have to be able to live with not following the coverage as it happens.
I reckon this would be about 1/2 a Con Hold if there hadn't been a by-election (maybe 4/6 if Mensch had stood down at the GE).
Clearly the price should be much bigger now with Lab incumbency but is 3/1 too big?
If UKIP are indeed on the slide, and the Tories are rising would be worth a punt
I wouldn't put it past one or two of the parties.
It's 95% about presentation and emotions.
Cheers TSE.
My bet is that this will not have anything like the impact of 2010 because the seven way debate means no-one is getting that much time. I also suspect that the most successful strategy is to be eminently positive: if you don't get your own message across, then people won't remember you as being particularly brilliant. In many ways, this should benefit those with simple messages: i.e. the Scots and Welsh nationalists and possibly the Greens.
Like everyone else here, I suspect Farage will perform reasonably well: that being said, I don't fancy the odds. He is likely to get very negative "insta-poll" clicks from LibDem supporters, the Greens, along with the metropolitan sides of the Labour Party and the Conservative Party. For that reason, I'm not long him. Everyone hates Clegg, which makes him unattractive. That being said, I'm told he's personally very persuasive when he makes the case for the coalition, so he might exceed expectations. But I think I'd bet on someone like the PC leader (or even Natalie Bennett) because it's a crap shot, and who hates those parties?