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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. M, why do you say that?
  • BenM said:

    Ed's zero hour contract focus: Fail.

    I'm surprised that Labour haven't run this line

    "Last week, David Cameron said he couldn't live on a zero hours contract, why should you?"
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Decent constituencies quiz on BBC site: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32086606
  • Last time the tories went to the country with a turnaround glowing economy, Labour won a landslide. Just saying like.

    Even so, this business leaders letter is a blow for Labour. Every party will have good n' bad days and Labour just need to take this one on the chin. Its Milibands fault in part for seeming to lay into business.

    Just suppose both mains are mid 30's it means either could win outright. Just wondering if theres a market up yet for cabinet positions in next government. Boris Johnson for Foreign Secretary? With the EU referendum coming up could be a perfect appointment for him & Cameron.

    If you are looking for pattern matching 1992 fits far better than 1997.

    In 1992, the economy was recovering from a sharp recession but there remained uncertainties, whereas 1997 there was a period of steady growth following the devaluation after Black Wednesday. -

    In 1992 Labour had a weak and often ridiculed leader whereas in 1997 they had a leader who at that time could virtually walk on water.

    In 1992 at the start of the campaign the polls were broadly level (in fact Labour improved steadily during the campaign only for support to dramatically evaporate in the last few days)

    We didn't have UKIP, but the Lib dems were polling only just short of what UKIP + Lib dems a are polling now.

    The SNP surge wasn't there but is largely not relevant given their pledge to prop up Labour
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200
    antifrank said:

    I agree with you about the business letter, which to me is at best a non-event and more likely confirms the image of the Conservatives as the party of the rich.

    The business letter will help (inasmuch as these things ever do) with the key target: Tory/UKIP waverers.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    It's the LD battleground incoming from Lord Ashcroft
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,276
    Except that the polls, bar ICM, were all rubbish ahead of GE97 - so no valid comparisons can be made.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    I'm hearing that all the the Ashcroft seats are in the Lib Dem battleground.

    I've messaged Kevin.

    *Fingers crossed for Torbay*
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509

    I'm hearing that all the the Ashcroft seats are in the Lib Dem battleground.

    With the Tories? Anti-climax. I don't envy the people who live in those seats having to choose between the Tory with the blue rosette and the Tory with the yellow rosette.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Scott_P said:

    @callummay: Ed Miliband is asked how many MPs have private healthcare at Huddersfield factory. "Not me and not anyone I know," he says #ge2015

    @ChrisGibsonNews: So is Ed Miliband saying he doesn't know anyone with private healthcare? #GE2015

    Fact checking in 5, 4, 3...

    Being financially comfortable, I see it as a sort of duty to buy private healthcare and not be a burden on the National Health Service - even though, God knows, I pay enough tax contributions towards it.

    Interesting that millionaire Ed Miliband sees it differently. I wonder which of us is the greater supporter of the NHS?

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015

    What does that mean? Surely the point of zero hours is that people can be fired at a moment's notice. If you believe that kind of flexibility is what an economy needs and might produce more jobs then you back it. If you think it leads to huge insecurity for people on the contracts who won't know where they'll likely be in a week or month's time, you don't.

    Many of these employers will operate shifts, projects and events and they will largely know in advance which work is available.

    As part of their ordinary management planning they will set up staff schedules.

    Therefore, the staff will know, in advance, what work is coming, how long it lasts, when it is etc.

    The idea that it is all last minute phone calls and sitting around waiting, is fantasy. Some may be, but nowhere near the majority.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,166
    edited April 2015
    Just had my first Labour leaflet in Bristol West includes photo of Ed Miliband. A brave decision by Thangam Debbonaire, yet she omits anything about her Union links or her background.

    Will be interested to see if they send the same leaflet to my wife.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    O/T Have any Labour PPC's dared to use a photo of Miliband, or mentioned his name on campaign literature yet?

    They can't all be ashamed to have him as party leader.

    It'd be funny if he wasn't on leaflets for Doncaster North ... ;-)
    It looks as if that's the only place he will get a mention.
    UKIP Gain Nailed on then!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,342
    antifrank said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    Odd to see that zero hours contracts has had more purchase on pb, while the Guardian's rolling news blog is obsessed with the business leaders' letter.

    I think the zero hours contract ban will have much more play with the public. Conservatives getting businesses on side is never going to be a big deal with the public, it is in line with expectations. That's why it was so effective when Blair was getting the same letters from the same businesses telling people that Labour was a safe pair of hands.

    The only letter that would help the Cons would be one signed by a few thousand doctors and nurses saying that only the Cons can ensure a fully funded NHS.
    The zero hours contract ban will bolster the votes of those who assume that zero hours contracts are exploitative (though I expect most of those were already voting Labour). It will lose Labour the votes of many of those who are on zero hours contracts who actually like the set-up because it suits their personal circumstances.

    I agree with you about the business letter, which to me is at best a non-event and more likely confirms the image of the Conservatives as the party of the rich.
    The Con letter may help to win over some wavering UKIP/Tory voters but that's about it.

    Ed is playing the 35% strategy so he has to firm up that vote as much as possible which means a core vote campaign. So far it has been pro-EU (keeping 2010 LDs) and anti-business (again keeping 2010 LDs). I expect this to continue to polling day. He needs to cobble together the whole 2010 Labour vote and a quarter of the LD 2010 vote. As you point out the problem is that the centrist voters in the Labour 2010 section will probably be turned off by some of the stances and the pro-EU position will push some voters towards UKIP, around 8% of Labour's 2010 vote are looking at UKIP (YouGov) so it is going to be tough to hold these groups together (centrist Labour and lefty Lib Dems, who are more often than not to the left of Labour on a lot of policies).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Scott_P said:

    @callummay: Ed Miliband is asked how many MPs have private healthcare at Huddersfield factory. "Not me and not anyone I know," he says #ge2015

    @ChrisGibsonNews: So is Ed Miliband saying he doesn't know anyone with private healthcare? #GE2015

    Fact checking in 5, 4, 3...

    Being financially comfortable, I see it as a sort of duty to buy private healthcare and not be a burden on the National Health Service - even though, God knows, I pay enough tax contributions towards it.

    Interesting that millionaire Ed Miliband sees it differently. I wonder which of us is the greater supporter of the NHS?

    Justine :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Ooh. Lib Dems. I presume Clegg will be one of the eight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    dr_spyn said:

    Just had my first Labour leaflet in Bristol West includes photo of Ed Miliband. A brave decision by Thangam Debbonaire, yet she omits anything about her Union links or her background.

    Will be interested to see if they send the same leaflet to my wife.

    Would you back or lay the Lib Dems at Evens in Bristol West ?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    BenM said:

    Ed's zero hour contract focus: Fail.

    I'm surprised that Labour haven't run this line

    "Last week, David Cameron said he couldn't live on a zero hours contract, why should you?"
    Because (to the surprise of the BBC radio 5 this morning) most people on ZHCs want them!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,342

    Ooh. Lib Dems. I presume Clegg will be one of the eight.

    Sheffield Hallam is a battleground?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    dr_spyn said:

    Just had my first Labour leaflet in Bristol West includes photo of Ed Miliband. A brave decision by Thangam Debbonaire, yet she omits anything about her Union links or her background.

    Will be interested to see if they send the same leaflet to my wife.

    I wouldn't have the balls to write a script with a character called Thangham Debbonaire....

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    I find this all such a spurious policy line to take.

    Zero hours suits the majority of those who choose them. Some want a full-time or regular hours PT job and use ZHC or what we call Temp Work to fill in the gap.

    It's illegal to restrict someone's trade by *exclusivity* to a single ZHC employer so I fail to see what the upside is for anyone effected by it - other than that type of work drying up within 12 weeks.

    I was a freelancer for a decade, ran huge temp work/contractor payrolls and the notion of making them default into FTE type jobs after 12 weeks is just going to cause a revolving door effect.

    It's so incredibly naive and lacking in real-world experience that makes EdM and his Spads look such numpties.
    BenM said:

    Ed's zero hour contract focus: Fail.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Ooh. Lib Dems. I presume Clegg will be one of the eight.

    Torbay, Hallam, Wells, Solihull, Pompey South, Taunton Deane, St Ives, Mid Dorset maybe ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    MaxPB said:

    Ooh. Lib Dems. I presume Clegg will be one of the eight.

    Sheffield Hallam is a battleground?
    Clegg is certainly battling to hold his seat.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeWatts_: Labour woes: Balls threat to drag mid-income earners into higher tax bracket. Chuka falls out with next CBI chief http://t.co/1NgaZCUdpM
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Hallam = Lab Gain
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Max, I'd say so.
  • @LordAshcroft: Voting intention in the eight seats I have polled on the Lib Dem battleground. Full details on @ConHome at noon. http://t.co/ddb0NdBb0N
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509
    Pulpstar said:

    Ooh. Lib Dems. I presume Clegg will be one of the eight.

    Torbay, Hallam, Wells, Solihull, Pompey South, Taunton Deane, St Ives, Mid Dorset maybe ?
    Actually forget what I said. If Hallam's on there I'm interested.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Plato said:

    I'm getting increasingly perplexed by Mr Farage's non-sequiturs. Now he's sort of saying that too many immigrants are preventing kids playing football in the street...

    Err.

    That one had me perplexed too.

    There is a sensible debate to be had on immigration - that comment of his is not it.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    MaxPB said:

    antifrank said:

    Odd to see that zero hours contracts has had more purchase on pb, while the Guardian's rolling news blog is obsessed with the business leaders' letter.

    I think the zero hours contract ban will have much more play with the public. Conservatives getting businesses on side is never going to be a big deal with the public, it is in line with expectations. That's why it was so effective when Blair was getting the same letters from the same businesses telling people that Labour was a safe pair of hands.

    The only letter that would help the Cons would be one signed by a few thousand doctors and nurses saying that only the Cons can ensure a fully funded NHS.
    The zero hours contract ban will bolster the votes of those who assume that zero hours contracts are exploitative (though I expect most of those were already voting Labour). It will lose Labour the votes of many of those who are on zero hours contracts who actually like the set-up because it suits their personal circumstances.

    I agree with you about the business letter, which to me is at best a non-event and more likely confirms the image of the Conservatives as the party of the rich.
    The Con letter may help to win over some wavering UKIP/Tory voters but that's about it.

    Ed is playing the 35% strategy so he has to firm up that vote as much as possible which means a core vote campaign. So far it has been pro-EU (keeping 2010 LDs) and anti-business (again keeping 2010 LDs). I expect this to continue to polling day. He needs to cobble together the whole 2010 Labour vote and a quarter of the LD 2010 vote. As you point out the problem is that the centrist voters in the Labour 2010 section will probably be turned off by some of the stances and the pro-EU position will push some voters towards UKIP, around 8% of Labour's 2010 vote are looking at UKIP (YouGov) so it is going to be tough to hold these groups together (centrist Labour and lefty Lib Dems, who are more often than not to the left of Labour on a lot of policies).
    The Lib Dems (or at least the Liberal rather than SDP element) are a libertarian, freedom loving, anti-authoritarian party eg legalise cannabis, free trade, human rights laws. Socialist are very interventionist and in favour of state control.

    So rather than describing Lib Dems as left of Labour it would be better to describe them as sideways of Labour and Conservative.
  • Looks like the Tories are tactically keeping the Lib Dems in Cambridge.

    North Cornwall, St Ives and Torbay are there for the tory taking if they can get back some UKIP support.

    Don't buy the Hallam poll - I think Clegg exposure over the campaign will get him over the line.
  • There's a great article in The Times by Danny Finkelstein, references some 10,000 strong polling by Populus.

    If true could swing the election for the Tories. Potential 3% late swing in the campaign to the Tories according to this polling.

    If the very clever Fink thinks the Tories can win, that's good enough for me.
  • "George W Bush said 'read my lips, no new taxes'..."

    'Twas George H.W. the father, not George 'Dubya' the son, who said that, surely..?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,166
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Just had my first Labour leaflet in Bristol West includes photo of Ed Miliband. A brave decision by Thangam Debbonaire, yet she omits anything about her Union links or her background.

    Will be interested to see if they send the same leaflet to my wife.

    Would you back or lay the Lib Dems at Evens in Bristol West ?
    Am wondering how vigorous the Tory campaign might be. So far one leaflet, but plenty of targeted leaflets from LDs trying to spin line that Tory can't win. Not sure Labour bother too much in my ward, though how many students bothered to register is a moot point. I had seen a figure on PB which implied that students were c. 23% of residents.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Actually, that's a bit boring. Tells me that Hallam, St. Ives, Torbay and North Cornwall could go either way. 3% on a marginals poll is well within MoE.

    Perhaps it will come down to turnout on the day.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636
    The Clegg seat is the headline-catcher, of course. Otherwise pretty much unchanged since September in most seats, except for the LibDems strengthening in Cambridge and UKIP falling back in Camborne. Tobay and North Cornwall are still thrillers!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    edited April 2015

    Hallam = Lab Gain

    Boing.

    Disappointed that Gordon isn't considered an LD battleground given Cleggy has gone all macho on it. Perhaps he should concentrate on his own back yard.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It's an excellent piece based on 4 levels of sub-segment polling. There's about 4% that the Tories could push their way.

    There's a great article in The Times by Danny Finkelstein, references some 10,000 strong polling by Populus.

    If true could swing the election for the Tories. Potential 3% late swing in the campaign to the Tories according to this polling.

    If the very clever Fink thinks the Tories can win, that's good enough for me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Camborne and Redruth is buying money @ 1-2.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    OK, off out to peel back 2% of the Kippers in Torbay.....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL from the DT
    11.50 Boris Johnson mocks Ed Miliband's two kitchens

    "I don't mind if he is so lazy he would rather not go downstairs to make a cup of tea shortly before binge-watching Breaking Bad or whatever he does," Boris Johnson said.

    "I mind very much that he is instinctively and intuitively hostile to the liberating policy of home ownership. We are the party of home ownership, of kitchen ownership. They are the party of hypocrisy and kitchen concealment."

    He also hailed the Conservatives' record on connectivity, saying: "If you vote Tory you get broadband, if you vote Ukip you get Miliband."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509
    My biggest concern with Hallam is that Tories might now rally around Clegg to stop Labour. There's a danger in peaking too soon. Have to say it's made my day though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    I really wanted Lord Ashcroft to take a Bath.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    This is surely an April Fool from the DT? Colouring books effecting 16yrs olds?
    Teenagers should not be allowed to vote on Britain’s membership of the European Union because they have been “brainwashed” by EU-friendly colouring books, the UK Independence Party has said.

    Ukip said 16 and 17 year olds should not be given a vote in an in/out referendum because they had been unfairly influenced by EU friendly colouring books and other materials while they are at school. The party was reacting to plans from the Liberal Democrats that the voting age should be lowered to 16 and 17 if Britain held an in/out referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Basically, all 4 of these LibDem retained seats bar Cambridge seats are a coin toss. Statistical ties all.
  • I guess I'm voting tactically after all.
  • Ed Miliband is hardly likely to enjoy 'Breaking Bad': as a series about a chemist-turned-successful small businessman, it's clearly a Thatcherite allegory.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    There's a great article in The Times by Danny Finkelstein, references some 10,000 strong polling by Populus.

    If true could swing the election for the Tories. Potential 3% late swing in the campaign to the Tories according to this polling.

    If the very clever Fink thinks the Tories can win, that's good enough for me.
    The very clever Tory strategist?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A whiff of aspirational middle class tax increases from labour today.

    Oh dear.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha! So true. I wonder what boxsets he has?!

    Ed Miliband is hardly likely to enjoy 'Breaking Bad': as a series about a chemist-turned-successful small businessman, it's clearly a Thatcherite allegory.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    23% Tory support for Clegg.

    Surprised that OGH vote pact innovation isn't being traded by Sheffield Tories with Lib Dems in a Con/Lab marginal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    I see Martin Freeman is the gift that keeps on giving. Just after Ed denies using private healthcare, or knowing anyone who would, Freeman in 2012:

    Do I support the NHS? Of course I f****** do. I still use it, but would I use private healthcare? Yes. I’ve got a map on my wall of Victorian London that cost 6½ grand, so why, if someone from my family needed something that was life or death, would I not spend my money on that?”

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/Magazine/Interviews/article1163292.ece
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    edited April 2015
    The Lib Dems will be happy with those results, they continue to be resolute in the marginals. (apart from Clegg)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,897
    isam said:

    There's a great article in The Times by Danny Finkelstein, references some 10,000 strong polling by Populus.

    If true could swing the election for the Tories. Potential 3% late swing in the campaign to the Tories according to this polling.

    If the very clever Fink thinks the Tories can win, that's good enough for me.
    The very clever Tory strategist?
    LOL
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,541

    Decent constituencies quiz on BBC site: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32086606

    I managed 8 out of 10. Fell down on Alan B'Stard's constituency and which point of the compass figures most in constituency names.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,226
    Plato said:

    This is surely an April Fool from the DT? Colouring books effecting 16yrs olds?

    Teenagers should not be allowed to vote on Britain’s membership of the European Union because they have been “brainwashed” by EU-friendly colouring books, the UK Independence Party has said.

    Ukip said 16 and 17 year olds should not be given a vote in an in/out referendum because they had been unfairly influenced by EU friendly colouring books and other materials while they are at school. The party was reacting to plans from the Liberal Democrats that the voting age should be lowered to 16 and 17 if Britain held an in/out referendum.
    I was against lowering the voting age to 16, and I think I still am. But the reaction of some on here to the positive experience during the run-up to Scottish independence has certainly given me pause for thought. Someone (DavidL?) wrote very eloquently and persuasively about hoe he'd changed his mind on the matter.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh dear, should have stuck to acting...

    I see Martin Freeman is the gift that keeps on giving. Just after Ed denies using private healthcare, or knowing anyone who would, Freeman in 2012:

    Do I support the NHS? Of course I f****** do. I still use it, but would I use private healthcare? Yes. I’ve got a map on my wall of Victorian London that cost 6½ grand, so why, if someone from my family needed something that was life or death, would I not spend my money on that?”

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/Magazine/Interviews/article1163292.ece

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509
    Whatever you think of this election campaign there is one reason to be positive.

    No PMQs.
  • I'm so glad I listened to TGOHF's advice.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    I think I will ignore everything today. Oh wait a minute every day is April Fools Day at Disreporting Scotland and the BBC. I think I will leave the TV off as well and the Radio and avoid buying any rag. Heck it is freezing as well, going back to bed I think and I will give the 24/7 carer stint a miss as well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TheRedRag: Interesting from @benatipsosmori on @SkyNews. 86% of FTSE 500 CEOs support the Conservative government. (430 out of 500)
  • Consider the character of Martin Freeman's Dr. Watson: continually clueless and put-upon yet eternally loyal. Reminds me of Labour's opinion of the working class!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I remain against it. I was a smart politically engaged and grown-up 16yrs old. I wouldn't have given me the vote. I recall voting at 18 and thinking how much my views had matured in just two years.

    Plato said:

    This is surely an April Fool from the DT? Colouring books effecting 16yrs olds?

    Teenagers should not be allowed to vote on Britain’s membership of the European Union because they have been “brainwashed” by EU-friendly colouring books, the UK Independence Party has said.

    Ukip said 16 and 17 year olds should not be given a vote in an in/out referendum because they had been unfairly influenced by EU friendly colouring books and other materials while they are at school. The party was reacting to plans from the Liberal Democrats that the voting age should be lowered to 16 and 17 if Britain held an in/out referendum.
    I was against lowering the voting age to 16, and I think I still am. But the reaction of some on here to the positive experience during the run-up to Scottish independence has certainly given me pause for thought. Someone (DavidL?) wrote very eloquently and persuasively about hoe he'd changed his mind on the matter.

  • As I've been saying for a while the Lib Dems have been working Sheffield Hallam. This and the Clegg name will get them home

    On the ground, the campaign is being very closely contested. While 53% in these seats said they had had literature, letters, phone calls or visits from the Conservatives, 52% said they had heard from the Lib Dems. There were variations between seats, though activity levels were high throughout. The highest contact rate of all was from the Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam, where 76% said they had heard from Nick Clegg’s team; we will know in 35 days if it has paid off.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord Ashcroft's two stage process shows a clear incumbency bounce without names given. The bounce may be still higher with names, of course, but equally it may be that voters only ask themselves one question in the polling booth.

    I can't get Lord Ashcroft's site to load - can anyone tell me when the Cambridge poll was taken?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord Ashcroft's two stage process shows a clear incumbency bounce without names given. The bounce may be still higher with names, of course, but equally it may be that voters only ask themselves one question in the polling booth.

    I can't get Lord Ashcroft's site to load - can anyone tell me when the Cambridge poll was taken?
    22-28 March
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200
    antifrank said:

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord Ashcroft's two stage process shows a clear incumbency bounce without names given. The bounce may be still higher with names, of course, but equally it may be that voters only ask themselves one question in the polling booth.

    I can't get Lord Ashcroft's site to load - can anyone tell me when the Cambridge poll was taken?
    24-28 Mar
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Ed Miliband is hardly likely to enjoy 'Breaking Bad': as a series about a chemist-turned-successful small businessman, it's clearly a Thatcherite allegory.

    Mrs Thatcher worked in the public sector, so presumably (according to pb tory dogma) voted Labour.

    Angela Merkel, iirc, is another chemist who came to lead her country.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    I see the Lord and your ARSE are as one. Aristocrats must stick together I suppose!
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Scott_P said:

    @TheRedRag: Interesting from @benatipsosmori on @SkyNews. 86% of FTSE 500 CEOs support the Conservative government. (430 out of 500)

    This is utterly devastating for Old Labour and Miliband. The groups that rallied for the Union in Scotland are going against the red team in the general election. This is a powerful force that should be enough to return David Cameron as prime minister.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord Ashcroft's two stage process shows a clear incumbency bounce without names given. The bounce may be still higher with names, of course, but equally it may be that voters only ask themselves one question in the polling booth.

    I can't get Lord Ashcroft's site to load - can anyone tell me when the Cambridge poll was taken?
    22-28 March
    So again he's taken it while the students are on holiday? Hmmm.
  • Looks like UKIP are getting squeezed. These go to bed Nigel wake up with Ed meme is having an effect
  • Finding the ZHC thing fascinating.

    Lots of people (possiblly most??) take ZHC either by free will or until something better/more permanent comes up. If you are good at your ZHC, a private sector employer will probably offer you a better contract within 3 months anyway if they can. Good workers are hard to find and retain. If you're so-so, you'll be shipped out and replaced after precisely 12 weeks at best.

    It seems that the people most obviously affected by ZHC are those who have been forced to take one or lose their benefits. i.e. not by free will.

    Doesn't seem like a great political winner as:

    They might not be naturally inclined to vote tory anyway
    They might not be naturally inclined to vote anyway
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I see Martin Freeman is the gift that keeps on giving. Just after Ed denies using private healthcare, or knowing anyone who would, Freeman in 2012:

    Do I support the NHS? Of course I f****** do. I still use it, but would I use private healthcare? Yes. I’ve got a map on my wall of Victorian London that cost 6½ grand, so why, if someone from my family needed something that was life or death, would I not spend my money on that?”

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/Magazine/Interviews/article1163292.ece

    I think Ed Miliband was talking about MPs, given the question he was answering, but I'm not really sure why this is regarded as a vote-winner for the blue team. Who will change their vote based on whether anyone at all uses private healthcare? They might if the Tories allow themselves to be portrayed as anti-NHS though.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,200
    From the noble lord's write-up:

    Eighty-five per cent of Conservative switchers to UKIP said they would rather have Cameron as PM; three quarters said they wanted to see the Conservatives back in government, including a majority (53%) whose preferred result was a Tory overall majority.

    Hmm...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    antifrank said:

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord Ashcroft's two stage process shows a clear incumbency bounce without names given. The bounce may be still higher with names, of course, but equally it may be that voters only ask themselves one question in the polling booth.

    I can't get Lord Ashcroft's site to load - can anyone tell me when the Cambridge poll was taken?
    Hence why I said 'might'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    edited April 2015
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167
    I have compared the Ashcroft constituency polls for the eight marginal LD seats with my own projections.

    These latest polls are basically in line with my expectations except:

    I had St Ives and Torbay down as very marginal Con wins. Ashcroft has them as very marginal LD holds.

    Sheffield and Cambridge are very much out of line with my projections with the Con vote well down and the Lab vote well up on my projections. Could this be Con tactical voting Lab against the LD? Never seen that before.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167
    Scott_P said:

    @TheRedRag: Interesting from @benatipsosmori on @SkyNews. 86% of FTSE 500 CEOs support the Conservative government. (430 out of 500)

    Gosh! What a surprise.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I ran hundreds of temp contract workers for 6yrs - from the peak of the 80s to pits of the 90s. Good workers were kept on despite not really being essential, poor ones were dumped within days if they didn't turn up first.

    It's quite Darwinian. And great experience for everyone to feel early on in life.

    Finding the ZHC thing fascinating.

    Lots of people (possiblly most??) take ZHC either by free will or until something better/more permanent comes up. If you are good at your ZHC, a private sector employer will probably offer you a better contract within 3 months anyway if they can. Good workers are hard to find and retain. If you're so-so, you'll be shipped out and replaced after precisely 12 weeks at best.

    It seems that the people most obviously affected by ZHC are those who have been forced to take one or lose their benefits. i.e. not by free will.

    Doesn't seem like a great political winner as:

    They might not be naturally inclined to vote tory anyway
    They might not be naturally inclined to vote anyway

  • (New thread)
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    Had first Labour leaflet in Oxford East - Andrew Smith not only doesn't mention Milliband he frames his whole message as of he was standing for the council - local local local - nominally a marginal he'll walk it IMHO
  • New Thread
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    I see Martin Freeman is the gift that keeps on giving. Just after Ed denies using private healthcare, or knowing anyone who would, Freeman in 2012:

    Do I support the NHS? Of course I f****** do. I still use it, but would I use private healthcare? Yes. I’ve got a map on my wall of Victorian London that cost 6½ grand, so why, if someone from my family needed something that was life or death, would I not spend my money on that?”

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/Magazine/Interviews/article1163292.ece

    I think Ed Miliband was talking about MPs, given the question he was answering, but I'm not really sure why this is regarded as a vote-winner for the blue team. Who will change their vote based on whether anyone at all uses private healthcare? They might if the Tories allow themselves to be portrayed as anti-NHS though.
    It's more a question of Labour supporter hypocrisy.....do as I say, not do as I do....

    Since the Labour launch has all been about 'values' (no actual 'policies'), the gap between Mr Freeman's public pronouncements and his private behaviour bears exploring....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    trublue said:

    Scott_P said:

    @TheRedRag: Interesting from @benatipsosmori on @SkyNews. 86% of FTSE 500 CEOs support the Conservative government. (430 out of 500)

    This is utterly devastating for Old Labour and Miliband. The groups that rallied for the Union in Scotland are going against the red team in the general election. This is a powerful force that should be enough to return David Cameron as prime minister.
    I know your ID is trublue but please don't overdo it. Your posts may end up being skipped.

    Also your avatar is a bit 2006.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509
    Barnesian said:

    I have compared the Ashcroft constituency polls for the eight marginal LD seats with my own projections.

    These latest polls are basically in line with my expectations except:

    I had St Ives and Torbay down as very marginal Con wins. Ashcroft has them as very marginal LD holds.

    Sheffield and Cambridge are very much out of line with my projections with the Con vote well down and the Lab vote well up on my projections. Could this be Con tactical voting Lab against the LD? Never seen that before.

    The problem with a seat like Hallam is that historically it's been a blue/yellow fight so the red vote naturally gets squeezed. However if the seat is turning into a red/yellow fight what motivation do red>yellow tactical voters have?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,897
    trublue said:

    Scott_P said:

    @TheRedRag: Interesting from @benatipsosmori on @SkyNews. 86% of FTSE 500 CEOs support the Conservative government. (430 out of 500)

    This is utterly devastating for Old Labour and Miliband. The groups that rallied for the Union in Scotland are going against the red team in the general election. This is a powerful force that should be enough to return David Cameron as prime minister.
    Why?

    This is not exactly news, is it?

    It's like the 100 Tories writing a letter to the Torgraph stating that they support the Tories.

    Some of you PB Tories/Burleys really need to get your head out of the clouds!

    No doubt, the economy is favourable territory for the Tories (a lot of this is luck viz. crude oil price), but the other key battleground, the NHS, is firmly Labour's trump card.

    Still all to play for...

    PS Loving that Hallam poll!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord Ashcroft's two stage process shows a clear incumbency bounce without names given. The bounce may be still higher with names, of course, but equally it may be that voters only ask themselves one question in the polling booth.

    I can't get Lord Ashcroft's site to load - can anyone tell me when the Cambridge poll was taken?
    22-28 March
    So again he's taken it while the students are on holiday? Hmmm.
    You're right, the under 25's have been massively upweighted and it has the Lib Dems well ahead in this age group.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    I see the Lord and your ARSE are as one. Aristocrats must stick together I suppose!
    I am a man of the people as I tell my butler, chauffer and gamekeeper on a regular basis when I venture below stairs.

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord A in his commentary says he doesn't undertake named candidates polling as the LibDem already do but this with a favourable warm up question.

    Well, there's a sensible solution to that problem - Don't do the warm up question !!

    His "your own constituency" question mitigates the problem somewhat but seasoned PBers will be well aware that the favourability rating of most LibDem MP's is way above other parties and it seems bonkers to me at this stage of the campaign not to have the named candidate question as we routinely see in all US Congressional contests.



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    How much are Labour selling their mugs for?

    You can buy a Tory #LabourMug for £20.......

    https://www.conservatives.com/labourmugs
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    From the noble lord's write-up:

    Eighty-five per cent of Conservative switchers to UKIP said they would rather have Cameron as PM; three quarters said they wanted to see the Conservatives back in government, including a majority (53%) whose preferred result was a Tory overall majority.

    Hmm...

    It's a very very long campaign so plenty of time for Lynton's message to sink home - hold your nose Kippers and vote Cammo - though personally I wish the tories would stop trying to compete with UKIP for the vote of those afflicted by an inchoate rage at the 21st century
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeWatts_: Labour woes: Balls threat to drag mid-income earners into higher tax bracket. Chuka falls out with next CBI chief http://t.co/1NgaZCUdpM

    Labour have a death wish, is there any section of society that they are not upsetting.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Off topic. US Presidential 2016. The Hillary email story just does not quit. She is being summonsed before a Congressional hearing to explain on record how she decided which emails to hand over to State; AP are suing for FOIA access to certain emails; and polls show that this scandal is hitting her numbers with independent voters in swing states.

    My prognosis: media groups with continue with FOIA requests using different key words, so that there will be a steady drip of yet more incredible stories, such as today stating that, according to State Department, in her years at State, Hillary only sent 4 emails on drones.

    http://www.pottsmerc.com/government-and-politics/20150331/state-dept-found-only-4-emails-about-drones-sent-by-hillary-clinton
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/31/committee-demands-clinton-appear-explain-emails/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/03/31/poll_clintons_margin_narrows_in_key_swing_states_126105.html

    Hillary is required to appear before the Committee by 1 May. I wonder if this will bring forward her announcement so that it is done before any fall out from the hearing, or whether it will persuade her to hold off until she can gauge the damage done. Her history of caution would indicate the latter.
This discussion has been closed.