politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might

Lucy Powell's 'triumph' (sic) making headlines:

We will borrow more if we win the election, Labour admits

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11502751/We-will-borrow-more-if-we-win-the-election-Labour-admits.html

isam said:

welshowl said:

At 50-1 ( or 33-1 if that's where we are now) sure worth a punt. I'm worth a punt in the ring against Mike Tyson at super long odds as there's just a chance he'll trip in the first two seconds and land on my knee with his chin, but barring some similar wild event I cannot see Wood winning. Likely she'll look like a discount version of Sturgeon with her main task being trying not to just repeat what Sturgeon's just said with a Welsh slant, which may come across as irritating and irrelevant with the 95% of the electorate that's not Welsh. It's just as likely in my view she'll have a Bennett LBC interview type event.

I'd assume her best tactic is to work with Bennett and Sturgeon as the "real change smash the system peacefully" bloc which may make Ed look a pale imitation or relatively reasonable depending on one's view.

Hmm interesting..

Anyone any idea which parties will tag team an opponent?

Farage-Sturgeon-Wood vs The Unionists (OK Farage is a "Unionist" but he will be arguing as England)

Sturgeon-Wood-Bennett as leftists against Miliband/Clegg (wouldn't work against Farage or Cameron as their support doesn't overlap)

A Rainbow Coalition of Mili-Sturg-Wood-Bennett vs the others?

Cam-Clegg vs the Rest (Govt vs Oppo)

Milli-Sturgeon-Wood-Bennett en bloc is Cam's dream as it's the ideal pitch to wavering Kippers (and even the odd Lib Dem) to say "après moi le deluge" which is essentially the Tory campaign (Baldwin ran on "Safety First" in the 30's I think - plus ca change and all that eh?).

Even I doubt Ed is that dull though his heart might agree with a lot of it.

Sunil - no need for a LD line on your graph, you can just use this - http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lta21gPm3U1qhy4uu.gif

Isn't Dan Hodges due to streak down Whitehall if UKIP poll double digits

Thumbs up if you think you are in charge of the SNP

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03043/Britain-Scotland-N_3043846b.jpg

For the fifth day running, Ms Sturgeon was forced to reassert her leadership after Mr Salmond after he gave a series of interviews portraying himself as kingmaker in a hung parliament.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11502681/Alex-Salmond-defies-Nicola-Sturgeons-attempts-to-sideline-him.html

@Spectator_CH: Salmond invades the stage & appeals to the cultish side of the SNP - @SebastianEPayne http://t.co/xGC9Dsubso #snpconf http://t.co/P8QfnvyqSD

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Lucy Powell's 'triumph' (sic) making headlines:

We will borrow more if we win the election, Labour admits

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11502751/We-will-borrow-more-if-we-win-the-election-Labour-admits.html

And....what's wrong with that ? Austerity is dead, it's sooooooooo uncoooooooooool !

Nothing except in 5 years time they will vote the Tories back in to start over again sorting out the same Labour overspend.

Personally the Tories should just say feck it and do what Labour do and piss it all up against the nearest wall as fast as they can, bring the country to bankruptcy call in the IMF and start an illegal war while bringing the NHS to the same standard as Wales and then leave a note stating there is no money left.

The electorate have such sort memories so what the hell.....

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

Test

Moses_ said:

surbiton said:

CarlottaVance said:

Lucy Powell's 'triumph' (sic) making headlines:

We will borrow more if we win the election, Labour admits

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11502751/We-will-borrow-more-if-we-win-the-election-Labour-admits.html

And....what's wrong with that ? Austerity is dead, it's sooooooooo uncoooooooooool !

Nothing except in 5 years time they will vote the Tories back in to start over again sorting out the same Labour overspend.

Personally the Tories should just say feck it and do what Labour do and piss it all up against the nearest wall as fast as they can, bring the country to bankruptcy call in the IMF and start an illegal war while bringing the NHS to the same standard as Wales and then leave a note stating there is no money left.

The electorate have such sort memories so what the hell.....

If you look at how much the present government is spending as a percentage of GDP, and how much it has borrowed, you might well conclude it is already following that plan. In both, Osborne has surpassed Gordon Brown, despite any rhetoric to the contrary.

Strange to have a new Westminster poll on a Sunday night..

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/582232088532910080

Another big Labour lead?

I'm still thinking about why Labour are at 12/1 to 16/1 to win a majority, while being at about 3/1 to win the seats they need for a majority.

One explanation is that the odds-minimal route to 323 seats on the markets involves Labour's winning 33 of 59 Scottish seats. Labour's performance against the SNP might not be very correlated with the results in English marginals, so the longer odds might have made some sense in that context. (That is to say, Labour could plough through Tory seats south of the border and make no impact on the SNP, and vice versa.) But even if I give Labour just 8 seats in Scotland and consider England and Wales for the remainder, I can still get the marginal Labour majority seat at about 4/1.

That is to say, depending on your beliefs about the likely correlation of Labour's performance, either there is value in the Labour majority market, or there could be value, albeit at short odds, among favourites in the seats where Labour are 4/1 to 12/1, like Tamworth. I wonder if the latter leg of the pricing mismatch exists because these non-firewall seats haven't had Ashcroft polls?

Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern

F1: just watching Ted's Notebook [free video on the Sky F1 site]. Apparently Grosjean had a turbo boost problem for the whole race, losing him power. Doubt he would've broken top 6 but without the problem points seem possible.

Let us hope no numpty breaks the ComRes embargo like last time

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.

On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.

HYUFD said:

Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern

HYUFD said:

Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern

HYUFD said:

Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern

Wales has 40 out of 650 seats or 6.1% which is a huge over representation in itself as it should be about 31/32 seats given the population.

Barnesian said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.

On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.

Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.

CarlottaVance said:

Well, there's a surprise.....

Alex Salmond has issued an extraordinary demand for control over the BBC in Scotland to be transferred to Edinburgh so its political coverage can be made more favourable to the SNP.

The former First Minister told the party conference in Glasgow that BBC Scotland must be devolved to Holyrood so that its supposed anti-Nationalist bias can be “resolved”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11502675/Alex-Salmond-demands-BBC-control-to-correct-anti-SNP-bias.html

Time London's Lord Haw Haw outfit was sorted out

WelshOwl Maybe, but PC are nowhere near the SNP surge and even if Leanne Wood put in an outstanding performance next week I doubt it would make the slightest difference to the overall UK election. Not quite sure about the posts either

tyson said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.

I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.

maaarsh said:

Barnesian said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.

On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.

Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.

It is not just creating jobs but ensuring existing jobs pay better. Higher minimum wage. Encouraging living wage.

EPG said:

MikeGreene said:

If anybody fancies a punt on Natalie Bennett performing a tad up on what must be very low expectations, William Hill's 9/2 on Greens winning 2 or more seats looks really good value.

Individually they are odds-on to retain Brighton Pavilion, 4/1 for Bristol West and 5/1 for Norwich South; plus long but not impossible odds in another half-dozen.

For fun I have modeled the 12 seats they are targeting, using the best prices available for each. Assuming no positive correlation between the chances of them winning the seats (which could be a plus or a minus) I get the "fair price" for 2 or more seats shorter than 2/1 unless I have ballsed something up:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ti9k3e9774eurkr/Green Seats Predictor.xlsx?dl=0

Even if we accept there will be some back/lay spreads and some correlation working to reduce the chances, the "2 seats or more" price does seem well out of whack with the prices for the individual seats..

I suspect the answer is that the individual seat markets are over-optimistic for the Greens. Lots of money has been staked on them in Bristol West and Norwich South; the odds naturally reflect that. Apart from Brighton, Pavilion, the other seats are very much cases of longshot odds that should be downweighted.

Yes. Think you may well be correct, and there is no perfect arbitrage I can see. But backing 2 or more seats combined with laying them in Bristol West and Norwich South could give a pretty decent payout profile.

Anyway, I have put a bit on the 2 or more for now and will see how it goes

HYUFD said:

WelshOwl Maybe, but PC are nowhere near the SNP surge and even if Leanne Wood put in an outstanding performance next week I doubt it would make the slightest difference to the overall UK election. Not quite sure about the posts either

Agreed. PC are only really a player in about 8 seats and seriously competitive in less than that (overlay a map of Welsh speakers being about 40%+ and you are not far off). They have done well in Caerphilly in the past and even the Rhondda in the first Assembly elections but whereas the SNP have high hopes ( and probably well justified) in Glasgow/Edinburgh/central belt PC are just nowhere seriously in the hunt for a seat in the Valleys as far as I can see, and as for Cardiff well just nothing doing at all. It's straight old fashioned LabConLib sort of a place ( seen zero evidence of Kipper presence here by the way as yet).

FU Of course much of Chinese industry is still in state hands, and while Maoism is no more China is certainly not Singapore or Switzerland either

Pong said:

I've just taken the 19/1 on labour beating the tories and coming 2nd in clacton.

It's not likely, but not 19/1 either.

Who is doing odds on second places? Could be interesting....

nigel4england said:

MikeSmithson said:

tyson said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.

I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.

What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?

Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.

They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.

I learnt this much from the interview.

Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.

Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indigo said:

maaarsh said:

Barnesian said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.

On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.

Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.

Or indeed how they plan to do it since there is virtually no one left unemployed that isn't positively welded to their couch, and forcing people into jobs they don't want isn't exactly Labour's style and would be hideously unpopular with their back benches.

Don't forget they also think they will just magic up even more growth than the already optimistic ~2.5% predictions, when history shows us it is very difficult to get much more than that and as SeanT tells up repeatedly China and India are coming up fast for more than just putting together plastic s##t.

Also, the oh so easy, well we will force employers to pay more and reduce labour market flexibility, except higher costs normally means less growth. And of course don't mention one of the big drivers for higher house prices, the I word, which of course Labour won't do anything about.

Labour will control immigration. It must be so if they have put it on a mug!

RobD said:

SMukesh said:

nigel4england said:

MikeSmithson said:

tyson said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.

I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.

What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?

Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.

They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.

I learnt this much from the interview.

Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.

Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.

What, no bankers bonus tax?

SMukesh will now have to be sent on a re-education course, to ensure he never forgets to mention the tax (that has already been spent 20 times over) ever again ...

MikeSmithson said:

Great to see my betting on Betfair exchange LAB most seats now in profit. Should I cash out now or will it get better?

The more i've learnt about punting, the more i've learnt to ignore my own position/portfolio and focus entirely on the value in the current odds.

Basically, cashing out would mean backing con most seats at 1.58. Do you really think that's value? I'd say a 63% chance is still on the high side - I'd put it between 50-55% (probably nearer 50%). But if you think the tories have a greater than 63% chance of winning most seats, then it makes sense to cash out.

nigel4england said:

SMukesh said:

nigel4england said:

MikeSmithson said:

tyson said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.

I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.

What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?

Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.

They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.

I learnt this much from the interview.

Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.

Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.

How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?

I guess

50p between 0 and 2 billion
Mansion between 1 and 1.5 billion
Bankers bonus tax a rounding error

nigel4england said:

SMukesh said:

nigel4england said:

MikeSmithson said:

tyson said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

Did we watch the same interview?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....

Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?

Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.

I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.

What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?

Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.

They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.

I learnt this much from the interview.

Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.

Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.

How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?

The estimates are between 2-3 billion per year for 50 p tax raise and 1.2-1.7 billion per year for Mansion tax.

There is a good opportunity for Cameron to ask Miliband about these details in the actual debate.

Earlier in the week I said I would check back, over the weekend, to my home town stomping ground of Birmingham Northfield to see what was happening on the ground.

A blizzard of well produced Tory fliers, little or nothing from Labour, but expectation that that would change in coming campaign (keeping resources back etc). Tory candidate is viewed as energetic and personable and is not seen as a career politician (local, however Oxbridge). Not expected that UKIP will make much headway.

I'd say Lab Hold as LibDems got nearly 16% last time.

But...

DYOR.

From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.

“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.

“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.

“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.

“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.

“That’s why there’s this ­unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their

£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.

Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in ­Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the ­international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”

However Mr Cameron is likely to take up lucrative directorships and could earn as much as £20million a year.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/samantha-cameron-told-david-quit-5420150

Pong said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pong said:

I've just taken the 19/1 on labour beating the tories and coming 2nd in clacton.

It's not likely, but not 19/1 either.

Who is doing odds on second places? Could be interesting....

It's the sporting index constituency markets.

2nd place settles at 10, so divide 10 by the buy price and you have your decimal odds.

Labour are 0-0.5 in clacton = 19/1 to come second (more likely than 5% IMO) & a free bet at 49/1 to win (much less likely than 2% IMO)

Thanks, though I haven't got an account with SI. I have betfair, WH, Ladbrokes and PP.

I would struggle to keep track of more. Who else has good politics markets. I only bet on politics and football, and eurovision of course.

@jameschappers: Tories turn around quickfire poster campaign after @lucympowell clash with @afneil today #GE2015 http://t.co/QlGXLW2Rjg

@CCHQPress: Labour finally confess they WILL borrow more #SameOldLabour http://t.co/F7rqmn1Rh2

FU/Richard Tyndall I expect there is a bit of Mirror poetic licence but nonetheless enough to make it plausible, but if true it is made for Hislop and Merton and Mock the Week

also, betfair sportsbook are offering odds on who will do worst in the debates.

Farage is 10/1.

Whether or not that's value depends on the questions yougov asks.

If they only ask a single question; "who won?", chances are farage won't come bottom.

If, however, they ask respondents both a question on who won, AND a separate question on who did worst, there's a reasonable chance that out of all 7 candidates, farage will get more people saying he was worst.

If yougov ask their respondents to rank the candidates in terms of performance, farage could also end up at the bottom, by virtue of being the most disliked candidate.

I guess i'm saying that it might only take ~30% of respondents to the yougov poll to say farage did worst for that 10/1 bet to be a winner. It depends on the questions they're asked.

I am going to have a bet on the Lib Dems being wiped out totally in Wales. They have nothing like the Northern Isles in Wales to keep their flag flying. I would like to see the Lib Dems wiped out in Scotland but it wont happen because they will cling on like limpets in the Northern Isles. I will have a fun bet on PC having 5 seats once the votes are counted.

HYUFD said:

From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.

“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.

“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.

“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.

“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.

“That’s why there’s this ­unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their

£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.

Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in ­Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the ­international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”

However Mr Cameron is likely to take up lucrative directorships and could earn as much as £20million a year.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/samantha-cameron-told-david-quit-5420150

That`s one thing both Samantha and the country can agree about.

Scott_P said:

@jameschappers: Tories turn around quickfire poster campaign after @lucympowell clash with @afneil today #GE2015 http://t.co/QlGXLW2Rjg

@CCHQPress: Labour finally confess they WILL borrow more #SameOldLabour http://t.co/F7rqmn1Rh2

I always wonder does anybody except those who are already decided political saddos actually see these things?

chestnut said:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-50p-top-rate-tax-bring/17601

The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibility both use TIE values similar to the one favoured by HMRC, suggesting Labour deliberately used an unlikely number to overestimate the expected windfall.

It’s no surprise then the IFS is cautiously supportive of HMRC’s estimate of how much tax will be raised if Labour brings back the 50 per cent additional rate: as little as £100m a year.

The study also says "In a 2012 analysis, HMRC concluded: “Between £16 billion and £18 billion of income is estimated to have been brought forward to 2009-10 to avoid the additional rate of tax. This behavioural response is entirely legitimate, and difficult to prevent using anti-avoidance legislation.” which is the point I was making earlier.

"Labour has produced some figures that suggest HMRC’s 2012 analysis is out of date, saying that more recent updates suggest people earning more than £150,000 paid £9.5 billion more in tax than previously thought over the three years of the 50p rate"

The report goes on to say "So volatile are the mathematics of TIE that a slight variation in the number means amount of tax revenue could vary wildly". That is - a slight variation of assumption means the output varies "wildly".

The mathematics are not described so it is impossible to check but if the output is so sensitive to the assumptions it is a case of rubbish in, rubbish out. Conclusion - dump the model.

SMukesh said:

Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

It was obvious to anyone in Primary School that she wasn't answering Andrew Neil's questions and her numbers didn't stack up.

If she was honest and straightforward she would have said:

"Yes Andrew - your numbers are right - we do not propose any significant tax rises or any significant spending cuts. We will reduce the deficit through economic growth. The deficit is only £75bn this year (2015/16) - with economic growth alone we can probably reduce it by approx £10bn per year - so in Year 5 it will be down to approx £35bn - which we reckon is OK".

I know at least one regular Lab supporting poster on here who would be delighted with the above approach!

Who knows - maybe that's what they'll do! I wouldn't personally support that approach but maybe they'll follow this approach, muddle through, and it'll work out reasonably OK?