DH gets week 1 right anyway (obviously after the event)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago Week 1 Labour "hits ground running". WK2 Labour "has momentum". WK3 "Tories "in crisis". WK4 Tories "nearly out of time". WK5 "Tories win".
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 30m30 minutes ago Con and Lab in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3) = second lowest ever!
So what this shows is that the Conservatives are basically on the same percentage as 6 months ago whilst Labour have lost about 3% most of which is down to the large increase in the SNP and the Greens I can see the Labour figures rising slightly if some who say they will vote Green decide to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories but otherwise the numbers overall feel relatively stable. I think this election will come down to how efficient the various parties votes are spread and how many young people are registered to and/or actually vote. The first has in past favoured Labour obviously but probably not to the same extent now due to Scotland and the 2nd part could potentially go against them and the Greens. Not exactly the easiest of elections to bet on!
It looks to me like the Conservatives have recovered from their dip post-Carswell defection. But Labour have been suffering since their disastrous October party conference, and never regained a decisive lead.
Both main parties have now locked horns and are engaged in an intense melee - polarising a little bit of alternative opinion around themselves - and are trying to wear each other out through attrition.
I don't think people change who they are going to vote for based on an unknown ( to the general public) MP changing parties. The fall in Labour happened just after the indyref and the up surge in the SNP. I think that had just as much impact, if not more, than the poor coverage that Labour got for their conference.
Can 99.9% of the population or even the hacks recollect what happened at the party conferences ?
In Thursday’s TV showdown, Ed boasted he should be PM because he stood up to President Obama in 2013 by voting down military action in Syria.
Texan Congressman Louie Gohmert, a possible Republican Presidential candidate next year, slammed Miliband, saying: “It may be my memory failing me but I don’t recall any Labour MPs being present in Congress that day.”
At 50-1 ( or 33-1 if that's where we are now) sure worth a punt. I'm worth a punt in the ring against Mike Tyson at super long odds as there's just a chance he'll trip in the first two seconds and land on my knee with his chin, but barring some similar wild event I cannot see Wood winning. Likely she'll look like a discount version of Sturgeon with her main task being trying not to just repeat what Sturgeon's just said with a Welsh slant, which may come across as irritating and irrelevant with the 95% of the electorate that's not Welsh. It's just as likely in my view she'll have a Bennett LBC interview type event.
I'd assume her best tactic is to work with Bennett and Sturgeon as the "real change smash the system peacefully" bloc which may make Ed look a pale imitation or relatively reasonable depending on one's view.
Hmm interesting..
Anyone any idea which parties will tag team an opponent?
Farage-Sturgeon-Wood vs The Unionists (OK Farage is a "Unionist" but he will be arguing as England)
Sturgeon-Wood-Bennett as leftists against Miliband/Clegg (wouldn't work against Farage or Cameron as their support doesn't overlap)
A Rainbow Coalition of Mili-Sturg-Wood-Bennett vs the others?
Cam-Clegg vs the Rest (Govt vs Oppo)
Milli-Sturgeon-Wood-Bennett en bloc is Cam's dream as it's the ideal pitch to wavering Kippers (and even the odd Lib Dem) to say "après moi le deluge" which is essentially the Tory campaign (Baldwin ran on "Safety First" in the 30's I think - plus ca change and all that eh?).
Even I doubt Ed is that dull though his heart might agree with a lot of it.
DH gets week 1 right anyway (obviously after the event)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago Week 1 Labour "hits ground running". WK2 Labour "has momentum". WK3 "Tories "in crisis". WK4 Tories "nearly out of time". WK5 "Tories win".
On topic - I think having a non-southern British accent will do her no harm - I don't know Welsh accents well enough to tell the difference between 'Valleys' and 'Cardiff' - but Cardiff did ok in a poll
For the fifth day running, Ms Sturgeon was forced to reassert her leadership after Mr Salmond after he gave a series of interviews portraying himself as kingmaker in a hung parliament.
And....what's wrong with that ? Austerity is dead, it's sooooooooo uncoooooooooool !
Nothing except in 5 years time they will vote the Tories back in to start over again sorting out the same Labour overspend.
Personally the Tories should just say feck it and do what Labour do and piss it all up against the nearest wall as fast as they can, bring the country to bankruptcy call in the IMF and start an illegal war while bringing the NHS to the same standard as Wales and then leave a note stating there is no money left.
The electorate have such sort memories so what the hell.....
Isn't Dan Hodges due to streak down Whitehall if UKIP poll double digits
On 15 December 2012 Hodges tweeted: “If Ukip break six per cent at the next election I’ll streak naked down Whitehall in a Nigel Farage mask whilst singing ‘Land of Hope and Glory’.
Although he's not the only welcher on this sort of bet. On election night 2010, Iain Dale ridiculed the BBC exit poll predicting that the LDs would win as few as 59 seats. If that proved true he would “run naked down Whitehall” *cough* 57 *cough*
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
And....what's wrong with that ? Austerity is dead, it's sooooooooo uncoooooooooool !
Nothing except in 5 years time they will vote the Tories back in to start over again sorting out the same Labour overspend.
Personally the Tories should just say feck it and do what Labour do and piss it all up against the nearest wall as fast as they can, bring the country to bankruptcy call in the IMF and start an illegal war while bringing the NHS to the same standard as Wales and then leave a note stating there is no money left.
The electorate have such sort memories so what the hell.....
If you look at how much the present government is spending as a percentage of GDP, and how much it has borrowed, you might well conclude it is already following that plan. In both, Osborne has surpassed Gordon Brown, despite any rhetoric to the contrary.
I fear the wider media are not going to pick up on Labour "deficit" reduction plan, but it really is a joke. Powell was scratching around talking about saving £100m here and there and for mentioning cutting ministerial salaries (which is not even a rounding error) as a real contributor to deficit deduction should never be given any credibility ever again.
The Tories are rightly getting asked what / how they will cut benefits to make their plans work, but so far Labour are getting away with the it will all be nice with us, no cuts after next year and 50p tax + banker bonus + mansion tax will do the trick.
I'm still thinking about why Labour are at 12/1 to 16/1 to win a majority, while being at about 3/1 to win the seats they need for a majority.
One explanation is that the odds-minimal route to 323 seats on the markets involves Labour's winning 33 of 59 Scottish seats. Labour's performance against the SNP might not be very correlated with the results in English marginals, so the longer odds might have made some sense in that context. (That is to say, Labour could plough through Tory seats south of the border and make no impact on the SNP, and vice versa.) But even if I give Labour just 8 seats in Scotland and consider England and Wales for the remainder, I can still get the marginal Labour majority seat at about 4/1.
That is to say, depending on your beliefs about the likely correlation of Labour's performance, either there is value in the Labour majority market, or there could be value, albeit at short odds, among favourites in the seats where Labour are 4/1 to 12/1, like Tamworth. I wonder if the latter leg of the pricing mismatch exists because these non-firewall seats haven't had Ashcroft polls?
Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern
F1: just watching Ted's Notebook [free video on the Sky F1 site]. Apparently Grosjean had a turbo boost problem for the whole race, losing him power. Doubt he would've broken top 6 but without the problem points seem possible.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
If anybody fancies a punt on Natalie Bennett performing a tad up on what must be very low expectations, William Hill's 9/2 on Greens winning 2 or more seats looks really good value.
Individually they are odds-on to retain Brighton Pavilion, 4/1 for Bristol West and 5/1 for Norwich South; plus long but not impossible odds in another half-dozen.
For fun I have modeled the 12 seats they are targeting, using the best prices available for each. Assuming no positive correlation between the chances of them winning the seats (which could be a plus or a minus) I get the "fair price" for 2 or more seats shorter than 2/1 unless I have ballsed something up:
Even if we accept there will be some back/lay spreads and some correlation working to reduce the chances, the "2 seats or more" price does seem well out of whack with the prices for the individual seats..
Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern
Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern
Leanne Wood was only on Question Time last Thursday to a UK wide audience, she is hardly unknown. PC only stands candidates in Wales anyway, Welsh MPs make up barely 10% of the Westminster total so regardless of her performance there would be very little impact on the UK election as a whole, other than perhaps adding a few more PC MPs to the SNP MPs' support Miliband will need to govern
Wales has 40 out of 650 seats or 6.1% which is a huge over representation in itself as it should be about 31/32 seats given the population.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
Alex Salmond has issued an extraordinary demand for control over the BBC in Scotland to be transferred to Edinburgh so its political coverage can be made more favourable to the SNP.
The former First Minister told the party conference in Glasgow that BBC Scotland must be devolved to Holyrood so that its supposed anti-Nationalist bias can be “resolved”.
WelshOwl Maybe, but PC are nowhere near the SNP surge and even if Leanne Wood put in an outstanding performance next week I doubt it would make the slightest difference to the overall UK election. Not quite sure about the posts either
If anybody fancies a punt on Natalie Bennett performing a tad up on what must be very low expectations, William Hill's 9/2 on Greens winning 2 or more seats looks really good value.
Individually they are odds-on to retain Brighton Pavilion, 4/1 for Bristol West and 5/1 for Norwich South; plus long but not impossible odds in another half-dozen.
For fun I have modeled the 12 seats they are targeting, using the best prices available for each. Assuming no positive correlation between the chances of them winning the seats (which could be a plus or a minus) I get the "fair price" for 2 or more seats shorter than 2/1 unless I have ballsed something up:
Even if we accept there will be some back/lay spreads and some correlation working to reduce the chances, the "2 seats or more" price does seem well out of whack with the prices for the individual seats..
I suspect the answer is that the individual seat markets are over-optimistic for the Greens. Lots of money has been staked on them in Bristol West and Norwich South; the odds naturally reflect that. Apart from Brighton, Pavilion, the other seats are very much cases of longshot odds that should be downweighted.
This is why I am interested in the question of why seat odds don't match the national Labour majority odds in places like Tamworth.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
I'm confused. You seem to have gone from Scottish polling expert to fully paid up Scottish Nationalist. Do you wear a kilt and have a red beard? I've put my most significant GE bets on your recommendations.
Have I been listening to 'Wings Over Bath?'
Crikey !
No this isn't "Wings over Bath", but I think Jim Murphy has turned me into a bit of a fan tbh. I don't like liars and he is the biggest of the lot with his constitutional nonsense.
I'll probably be voting UKIP, but that may change come election day. If Dave is far enough behind and there is no chance of him winning I might change my mind . My political convictions aren't particularly strong right now, GE 100% a betting exercise.
He is very typical of Labour, certainly in Scotland, for sure if their lips are moving they are sure to be lying.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.
Or indeed how they plan to do it since there is virtually no one left unemployed that isn't positively welded to their couch, and forcing people into jobs they don't want isn't exactly Labour's style and would be hideously unpopular with their back benches.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Alex Salmond has issued an extraordinary demand for control over the BBC in Scotland to be transferred to Edinburgh so its political coverage can be made more favourable to the SNP.
The former First Minister told the party conference in Glasgow that BBC Scotland must be devolved to Holyrood so that its supposed anti-Nationalist bias can be “resolved”.
Explicit control of the political agenda of the BBC in Scotland ? That's the sort of thing some banana republics would blush at. What could possibly go wrong ?
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.
It is not just creating jobs but ensuring existing jobs pay better. Higher minimum wage. Encouraging living wage.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.
Or indeed how they plan to do it since there is virtually no one left unemployed that isn't positively welded to their couch, and forcing people into jobs they don't want isn't exactly Labour's style and would be hideously unpopular with their back benches.
Don't forget they also think they will just magic up even more growth than the already optimistic ~2.5% predictions, when history shows us it is very difficult to get much more than that and as SeanT tells up repeatedly China and India are coming up fast for more than just putting together plastic s##t.
Also, the oh so easy, well we will force employers to pay more and reduce labour market flexibility, except higher costs normally means less growth. And of course don't mention one of the big drivers for higher house prices, the I word, which of course Labour won't do anything about.
If anybody fancies a punt on Natalie Bennett performing a tad up on what must be very low expectations, William Hill's 9/2 on Greens winning 2 or more seats looks really good value.
Individually they are odds-on to retain Brighton Pavilion, 4/1 for Bristol West and 5/1 for Norwich South; plus long but not impossible odds in another half-dozen.
For fun I have modeled the 12 seats they are targeting, using the best prices available for each. Assuming no positive correlation between the chances of them winning the seats (which could be a plus or a minus) I get the "fair price" for 2 or more seats shorter than 2/1 unless I have ballsed something up:
Even if we accept there will be some back/lay spreads and some correlation working to reduce the chances, the "2 seats or more" price does seem well out of whack with the prices for the individual seats..
I suspect the answer is that the individual seat markets are over-optimistic for the Greens. Lots of money has been staked on them in Bristol West and Norwich South; the odds naturally reflect that. Apart from Brighton, Pavilion, the other seats are very much cases of longshot odds that should be downweighted.
Yes. Think you may well be correct, and there is no perfect arbitrage I can see. But backing 2 or more seats combined with laying them in Bristol West and Norwich South could give a pretty decent payout profile.
Anyway, I have put a bit on the 2 or more for now and will see how it goes
WelshOwl Maybe, but PC are nowhere near the SNP surge and even if Leanne Wood put in an outstanding performance next week I doubt it would make the slightest difference to the overall UK election. Not quite sure about the posts either
Agreed. PC are only really a player in about 8 seats and seriously competitive in less than that (overlay a map of Welsh speakers being about 40%+ and you are not far off). They have done well in Caerphilly in the past and even the Rhondda in the first Assembly elections but whereas the SNP have high hopes ( and probably well justified) in Glasgow/Edinburgh/central belt PC are just nowhere seriously in the hunt for a seat in the Valleys as far as I can see, and as for Cardiff well just nothing doing at all. It's straight old fashioned LabConLib sort of a place ( seen zero evidence of Kipper presence here by the way as yet).
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
I thought she handled Andrew Neil very well. She refused to be bullied by him and was coherent in her answers.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
Creating jobs would certainly be a bold new approach for the Labour Party. One wonders why they've taken so long to think of it.
Or indeed how they plan to do it since there is virtually no one left unemployed that isn't positively welded to their couch, and forcing people into jobs they don't want isn't exactly Labour's style and would be hideously unpopular with their back benches.
Don't forget they also think they will just magic up even more growth than the already optimistic ~2.5% predictions, when history shows us it is very difficult to get much more than that and as SeanT tells up repeatedly China and India are coming up fast for more than just putting together plastic s##t.
Also, the oh so easy, well we will force employers to pay more and reduce labour market flexibility, except higher costs normally means less growth. And of course don't mention one of the big drivers for higher house prices, the I word, which of course Labour won't do anything about.
Labour will control immigration. It must be so if they have put it on a mug!
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
What, no bankers bonus tax?
SMukesh will now have to be sent on a re-education course, to ensure he never forgets to mention the tax (that has already been spent 20 times over) ever again ...
Great to see my betting on Betfair exchange LAB most seats now in profit. Should I cash out now or will it get better?
The more i've learnt about punting, the more i've learnt to ignore my own position/portfolio and focus entirely on the value in the current odds.
Basically, cashing out would mean backing con most seats at 1.58. Do you really think that's value? I'd say a 63% chance is still on the high side - I'd put it between 50-55% (probably nearer 50%). But if you think the tories have a greater than 63% chance of winning most seats, then it makes sense to cash out.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?
I guess
50p between 0 and 2 billion Mansion between 1 and 1.5 billion Bankers bonus tax a rounding error
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?
The estimates are between 2-3 billion per year for 50 p tax raise and 1.2-1.7 billion per year for Mansion tax.
There is a good opportunity for Cameron to ask Miliband about these details in the actual debate.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?
The estimates are between 2-3 billion per year for 50 p tax raise and 1.2-1.7 billion per year for Mansion tax.
There is a good opportunity for Cameron to ask Miliband about these details in the actual debate.
Earlier in the week I said I would check back, over the weekend, to my home town stomping ground of Birmingham Northfield to see what was happening on the ground.
A blizzard of well produced Tory fliers, little or nothing from Labour, but expectation that that would change in coming campaign (keeping resources back etc). Tory candidate is viewed as energetic and personable and is not seen as a career politician (local, however Oxbridge). Not expected that UKIP will make much headway.
I'd say Lab Hold as LibDems got nearly 16% last time.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?
The estimates are between 2-3 billion per year for 50 p tax raise and 1.2-1.7 billion per year for Mansion tax.
There is a good opportunity for Cameron to ask Miliband about these details in the actual debate.
The highly hopeful estimates are....
Foxinsox explained the other day why 50p fails to collect.
From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.
“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.
“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.
“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.
“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.
“That’s why there’s this unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their
£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.
Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
Irrespective of one's political leaning, how can anyone seriously conclude that Ms Powell handled this interview in a remotely effective manner?
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
I thought she did as well as anybody against Andrew Neil in full flight. Many are steam-rollered. She wasn't.
What did you make of her plans to reduce the deficit?
Labour have got a 3 pronged strategy to reduce the deficit to zero over 5 years-tax rises such as 50 p income tax,mansion tax,spending cuts some of them set out others after the zero based spending review and believe they can create well-paid jobs.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
How much will increasing the tax rate to .50p raise? Or the mansion tax?
The estimates are between 2-3 billion per year for 50 p tax raise and 1.2-1.7 billion per year for Mansion tax.
There is a good opportunity for Cameron to ask Miliband about these details in the actual debate.
There is not the remotest possibility that raising the tax rate to 50p will raise £2-3 billion, in fact it's quite possible that it will actually reduce the tax take. Still that doesn't matter does it, the better off must be punished.
The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibility both use TIE values similar to the one favoured by HMRC, suggesting Labour deliberately used an unlikely number to overestimate the expected windfall.
It’s no surprise then the IFS is cautiously supportive of HMRC’s estimate of how much tax will be raised if Labour brings back the 50 per cent additional rate: as little as £100m a year.
From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.
“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.
“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.
“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.
“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.
“That’s why there’s this unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their
£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.
Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”
From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.
“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.
“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.
“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.
“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.
“That’s why there’s this unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their
£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.
Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”
I suspect that whilst the basics of that story are true there are some bullshit bits added by the Mirror to make Cameron look bad. I can quite believe the idea that Sam Cam was not enamored by her husband being PM because of family sacrifices but I seriously doubt if the inability to holiday in the Maldives for a few years was a high priority in her opposition.
Alex Salmond has issued an extraordinary demand for control over the BBC in Scotland to be transferred to Edinburgh so its political coverage can be made more favourable to the SNP.
The former First Minister told the party conference in Glasgow that BBC Scotland must be devolved to Holyrood so that its supposed anti-Nationalist bias can be “resolved”.
Explicit control of the political agenda of the BBC in Scotland ? That's the sort of thing some banana republics would blush at. What could possibly go wrong ?
Don't be stupid, just make them do what they are supposed to do , give impartial news unlike present where they are so biased it is unbelievable.
FU/Richard Tyndall I expect there is a bit of Mirror poetic licence but nonetheless enough to make it plausible, but if true it is made for Hislop and Merton and Mock the Week
From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.
“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.
“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.
“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.
“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.
“That’s why there’s this unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their
£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.
Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”
I suspect that whilst the basics of that story are true there are some bullshit bits added by the Mirror to make Cameron look bad. I can quite believe the idea that Sam Cam was not enamored by her husband being PM because of family sacrifices but I seriously doubt if the inability to holiday in the Maldives for a few years was a high priority in her opposition.
Indeed.
While the basic ‘facts’ are all plausible, the holiday destinations are a fabrication of the Mirror.
also, betfair sportsbook are offering odds on who will do worst in the debates.
Farage is 10/1.
Whether or not that's value depends on the questions yougov asks.
If they only ask a single question; "who won?", chances are farage won't come bottom.
If, however, they ask respondents both a question on who won, AND a separate question on who did worst, there's a reasonable chance that out of all 7 candidates, farage will get more people saying he was worst.
If yougov ask their respondents to rank the candidates in terms of performance, farage could also end up at the bottom, by virtue of being the most disliked candidate.
I guess i'm saying that it might only take ~30% of respondents to the yougov poll to say farage did worst for that 10/1 bet to be a winner. It depends on the questions they're asked.
Would the Scotia Broadcasting Corp have to comply with the SNP rules?
@kevwodonnell: If ever an image could tell you everything you need to know about a political party. #SNP just adopted this motion. http://t.co/rvUefwTEoj
I am going to have a bet on the Lib Dems being wiped out totally in Wales. They have nothing like the Northern Isles in Wales to keep their flag flying. I would like to see the Lib Dems wiped out in Scotland but it wont happen because they will cling on like limpets in the Northern Isles. I will have a fun bet on PC having 5 seats once the votes are counted.
I suspect that whilst the basics of that story are true there are some bullshit bits added by the Mirror to make Cameron look bad. I can quite believe the idea that Sam Cam was not enamored by her husband being PM because of family sacrifices but I seriously doubt if the inability to holiday in the Maldives for a few years was a high priority in her opposition.
For what it's worth, Cameron's house would come in at under £2 million as well, albeit by a whisker.
From the Mirror, Sam Cam was the reason DC announced he would not run for a 3rd term.
“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.
“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.
“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.
“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.
“That’s why there’s this unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their
£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.
Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”
FU/Richard Tyndall I expect there is a bit of Mirror poetic licence but nonetheless enough to make it plausible, but if true it is made for Hislop and Merton and Mock the Week
The whole "I can't go on my hols" is clearly BS, but I think the general premise is definitely plausible i.e. wanting to be able to live their life in a more normal way in the way they want to, rather than worrying about how the press might perceive two extremely successful people doing what successful people do...and if Cameron did get a 2nd term, it would have been 15 years of this nonsense.
I suspect that whilst the basics of that story are true there are some bullshit bits added by the Mirror to make Cameron look bad. I can quite believe the idea that Sam Cam was not enamored by her husband being PM because of family sacrifices but I seriously doubt if the inability to holiday in the Maldives for a few years was a high priority in her opposition.
For what it's worth, Cameron's house would come in at under £2 million as well.
Life after being PM isnt easy.
I think Dave will do a John Major rather than wander round the world Flying Dutchman style like Brown and Blair.
The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibility both use TIE values similar to the one favoured by HMRC, suggesting Labour deliberately used an unlikely number to overestimate the expected windfall.
It’s no surprise then the IFS is cautiously supportive of HMRC’s estimate of how much tax will be raised if Labour brings back the 50 per cent additional rate: as little as £100m a year.
The study also says "In a 2012 analysis, HMRC concluded: “Between £16 billion and £18 billion of income is estimated to have been brought forward to 2009-10 to avoid the additional rate of tax. This behavioural response is entirely legitimate, and difficult to prevent using anti-avoidance legislation.” which is the point I was making earlier.
"Labour has produced some figures that suggest HMRC’s 2012 analysis is out of date, saying that more recent updates suggest people earning more than £150,000 paid £9.5 billion more in tax than previously thought over the three years of the 50p rate"
The report goes on to say "So volatile are the mathematics of TIE that a slight variation in the number means amount of tax revenue could vary wildly". That is - a slight variation of assumption means the output varies "wildly".
The mathematics are not described so it is impossible to check but if the output is so sensitive to the assumptions it is a case of rubbish in, rubbish out. Conclusion - dump the model.
Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
It was obvious to anyone in Primary School that she wasn't answering Andrew Neil's questions and her numbers didn't stack up.
If she was honest and straightforward she would have said:
"Yes Andrew - your numbers are right - we do not propose any significant tax rises or any significant spending cuts. We will reduce the deficit through economic growth. The deficit is only £75bn this year (2015/16) - with economic growth alone we can probably reduce it by approx £10bn per year - so in Year 5 it will be down to approx £35bn - which we reckon is OK".
I know at least one regular Lab supporting poster on here who would be delighted with the above approach!
Who knows - maybe that's what they'll do! I wouldn't personally support that approach but maybe they'll follow this approach, muddle through, and it'll work out reasonably OK?
Comments
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
Week 1 Labour "hits ground running". WK2 Labour "has momentum". WK3 "Tories "in crisis". WK4 Tories "nearly out of time". WK5 "Tories win".
We will borrow more if we win the election, Labour admits
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11502751/We-will-borrow-more-if-we-win-the-election-Labour-admits.html
I'd campaign for him in a heartbeat.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louie_Gohmert
That's not a criticism...... my background is Valleys.
Some co-operation might occur between the nationalists and Greens.
Even I doubt Ed is that dull though his heart might agree with a lot of it.
Two of my cousins playing there today and some of the family have made the trip to support.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2433201/Scousers-intelligent-trustworthy-accent--Devonians-friendliest.html
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03043/Britain-Scotland-N_3043846b.jpg http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11502681/Alex-Salmond-defies-Nicola-Sturgeons-attempts-to-sideline-him.html
Or make some cuts (1 year of Austerity) as per Labour and borrow a bit more
If you vote for the former you need to know what eg the £12bn of welfare cuts entails in order to work out if they are palatable or not.
Personally the Tories should just say feck it and do what Labour do and piss it all up against the nearest wall as fast as they can, bring the country to bankruptcy call in the IMF and start an illegal war while bringing the NHS to the same standard as Wales and then leave a note stating there is no money left.
The electorate have such sort memories so what the hell.....
Although he's not the only welcher on this sort of bet. On election night 2010, Iain Dale ridiculed the BBC exit poll predicting that the LDs would win as few as 59 seats. If that proved true he would “run naked down Whitehall” *cough* 57 *cough*
I hope we don't have too much coverage/over-analysis of polls, otherwise pollsters may shape rather than reflect public opinion.
The Tories are rightly getting asked what / how they will cut benefits to make their plans work, but so far Labour are getting away with the it will all be nice with us, no cuts after next year and 50p tax + banker bonus + mansion tax will do the trick.
One explanation is that the odds-minimal route to 323 seats on the markets involves Labour's winning 33 of 59 Scottish seats. Labour's performance against the SNP might not be very correlated with the results in English marginals, so the longer odds might have made some sense in that context. (That is to say, Labour could plough through Tory seats south of the border and make no impact on the SNP, and vice versa.) But even if I give Labour just 8 seats in Scotland and consider England and Wales for the remainder, I can still get the marginal Labour majority seat at about 4/1.
That is to say, depending on your beliefs about the likely correlation of Labour's performance, either there is value in the Labour majority market, or there could be value, albeit at short odds, among favourites in the seats where Labour are 4/1 to 12/1, like Tamworth. I wonder if the latter leg of the pricing mismatch exists because these non-firewall seats haven't had Ashcroft polls?
Lab 6 pt lead with Com Res ?
More seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if it had a Tory debate bounce. Cameron did apparently win it after all.
On deficit reduction she described a three prong strategy, the last of which was getting the tax take up by getting more people into taxable employment. This not only increases the tax take but reduces the benefit bill. It made sense. But Andrew Neil interrupted it by his question on zero hour contracts. She had to fight hard to be heard. But she succeeded.
Individually they are odds-on to retain Brighton Pavilion, 4/1 for Bristol West and 5/1 for Norwich South; plus long but not impossible odds in another half-dozen.
For fun I have modeled the 12 seats they are targeting, using the best prices available for each. Assuming no positive correlation between the chances of them winning the seats (which could be a plus or a minus) I get the "fair price" for 2 or more seats shorter than 2/1 unless I have ballsed something up:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ti9k3e9774eurkr/Green Seats Predictor.xlsx?dl=0
Even if we accept there will be some back/lay spreads and some correlation working to reduce the chances, the "2 seats or more" price does seem well out of whack with the prices for the individual seats..
No idea why my phone copied your quote three times!
Peter- did you watch the interview? Lucy Powell was superb......Only joking. You just made me watch it through your suggestive reply- thanks (sarcastic of course). Lucy Powell really needs to be left in the back office where I am sure she provides Ed with a bit of backbone. But public facing work isn't her thing.
Goodluck anywhere between 21 and 65% in the polls lol.
This is why I am interested in the question of why seat odds don't match the national Labour majority odds in places like Tamworth.
*bangs on wood*
Also, the oh so easy, well we will force employers to pay more and reduce labour market flexibility, except higher costs normally means less growth. And of course don't mention one of the big drivers for higher house prices, the I word, which of course Labour won't do anything about.
Anyway, I have put a bit on the 2 or more for now and will see how it goes
It's not likely, but not 19/1 either.
They won`t borrow anything for day to day spending.
I learnt this much from the interview.
Atleast Labour is not making announcements of unfunded tax cuts or weekend outpatient service without any detail of where the money is coming from.
Lucy Powell is a combative performer who speaks in a language people can understand and pleasing to the eye as well.Labour needs more people like her in front of the television.
They win even less often than the odds suggest they should win.
Basically, cashing out would mean backing con most seats at 1.58. Do you really think that's value? I'd say a 63% chance is still on the high side - I'd put it between 50-55% (probably nearer 50%). But if you think the tories have a greater than 63% chance of winning most seats, then it makes sense to cash out.
50p between 0 and 2 billion
Mansion between 1 and 1.5 billion
Bankers bonus tax a rounding error
2nd place settles at 10, so divide 10 by the buy price and you have your decimal odds.
Labour are 0-0.5 in clacton = 19/1 to come second (more likely than 5% IMO) & a free bet at 49/1 to win (much less likely than 2% IMO)
There is a good opportunity for Cameron to ask Miliband about these details in the actual debate.
A blizzard of well produced Tory fliers, little or nothing from Labour, but expectation that that would change in coming campaign (keeping resources back etc). Tory candidate is viewed as energetic and personable and is not seen as a career politician (local, however Oxbridge). Not expected that UKIP will make much headway.
I'd say Lab Hold as LibDems got nearly 16% last time.
But...
DYOR.
Foxinsox explained the other day why 50p fails to collect.
“From the start Sam had to be persuaded about letting Dave run for the Tory leadership in 2005.
“It has meant a lot of sacrifices for the family. Sam wants to holiday in places like Thailand and the Maldives.
“But they are stuck with going to places like Cornwall and the Med to avoid looking too rich.
“She is also keen to further her career and wants him to spend more time with the kids.
“That’s why there’s this unofficial pact that David will not run for a third term.” The couple will not return to their
£2.5million West London terraced home because it is too hard for police to protect.
Senior Tories expect them to start looking soon for a Central London property costing up to £8million for when the PM leaves. They also have a house in Oxfordshire. Mr Cameron is expected to shun the international statesman role chosen by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
A close ally of the PM said: “After well over a decade as Tory leader he will want to chillax.”
However Mr Cameron is likely to take up lucrative directorships and could earn as much as £20million a year.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/samantha-cameron-told-david-quit-5420150
I would struggle to keep track of more. Who else has good politics markets. I only bet on politics and football, and eurovision of course.
@CCHQPress: Labour finally confess they WILL borrow more #SameOldLabour http://t.co/F7rqmn1Rh2
While the basic ‘facts’ are all plausible, the holiday destinations are a fabrication of the Mirror.
Farage is 10/1.
Whether or not that's value depends on the questions yougov asks.
If they only ask a single question; "who won?", chances are farage won't come bottom.
If, however, they ask respondents both a question on who won, AND a separate question on who did worst, there's a reasonable chance that out of all 7 candidates, farage will get more people saying he was worst.
If yougov ask their respondents to rank the candidates in terms of performance, farage could also end up at the bottom, by virtue of being the most disliked candidate.
I guess i'm saying that it might only take ~30% of respondents to the yougov poll to say farage did worst for that 10/1 bet to be a winner. It depends on the questions they're asked.
@kevwodonnell: If ever an image could tell you everything you need to know about a political party. #SNP just adopted this motion. http://t.co/rvUefwTEoj
At least we know why the CyberNats do it now...
I think Dave will do a John Major rather than wander round the world Flying Dutchman style like Brown and Blair.
"Labour has produced some figures that suggest HMRC’s 2012 analysis is out of date, saying that more recent updates suggest people earning more than £150,000 paid £9.5 billion more in tax than previously thought over the three years of the 50p rate"
The report goes on to say "So volatile are the mathematics of TIE that a slight variation in the number means amount of tax revenue could vary wildly". That is - a slight variation of assumption means the output varies "wildly".
The mathematics are not described so it is impossible to check but if the output is so sensitive to the assumptions it is a case of rubbish in, rubbish out. Conclusion - dump the model.
If she was honest and straightforward she would have said:
"Yes Andrew - your numbers are right - we do not propose any significant tax rises or any significant spending cuts. We will reduce the deficit through economic growth. The deficit is only £75bn this year (2015/16) - with economic growth alone we can probably reduce it by approx £10bn per year - so in Year 5 it will be down to approx £35bn - which we reckon is OK".
I know at least one regular Lab supporting poster on here who would be delighted with the above approach!
Who knows - maybe that's what they'll do! I wouldn't personally support that approach but maybe they'll follow this approach, muddle through, and it'll work out reasonably OK?