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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate
She’ll be fresh to a full national audience, has a pleasant manner, and handles herself well on TV. She’ll also attract less of the hostility that some of the others on the platform are likely to attract.
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re: too many dispensing chemists
We do. One of my friends owns a chain of chemists and has told me that the large multiples are cutting base salaries by replacing older pharmacists with newbies on lower rates. He's not doing that, but he has squeezed locum rates by something like 30%.
http://bit.ly/1xL7uuZ
Big price bets are always nice, but I still think the Party VI share is the most impt thing here and Cameron & Miliband are the best bets
The female vote is split three ways/the nationalist vote is split three ways and the leftie vote is split three/four ways...
Antifrank said it first while I was saying back both, but add in the "recovery effect" and Cameron seems the value.. Tories will all say he won and they have the biggest rep on YouGov
Whilst I have little time for Plaid, she s very left wing and a small wager on her would be fun, although my money is on Ed to carry on his good work.
Lab 33.9%
Con 33.2%
UKIP 13.6%
LD 7.9%
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Chart.PNG
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Lead.PNG
"Is she (Katie Hopkins) Jordan?"
No. But I think she's another one of Ed's knockers
Nicola Sturgeon is.
Of course personally I don't place as much emphasis on polls like that but plenty do
Nick Clegg turns into Alan Partridge as he hits the road in a bright yellow bus with a built-in studio to broadcast to local radio stations just like in comedy film
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3016737/Nick-Clegg-chasing-women-Lib-Dems-unveil-election-battlebus-party-thinks-female-voters-likely-switch.html
Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.
How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?
A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.
Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?
If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?
Cameron £10 @ 4-1
Sturgeon £5 @ 8-1
Wood £2 @ 50-1
Labour to some extent too, though I understand a big part of their "ground game" is a registration drive.
Specifically in regards to students. I would have presumed SU's around the country are emailing / twitter / facebook / instagram / leafleting their students with how to do this. I would presume those that would actually get out of bed on the day, can also spend 2 mins filling in an online form.
I'm confused. You seem to have gone from Scottish polling expert to fully paid up Scottish Nationalist. Do you wear a kilt and have a red beard? I've put my most significant GE bets on your recommendations.
Have I been listening to 'Wings Over Bath?'
Watching Clegg's recent Q&A session with Sky News, he is overly eager and still may well be. I also think he is in a real mess with tuition fees, he apologised for bringing them in but kind of seems happy with the arrangements in place. Bit like calling someone's Mum fat, saying sorry for it and then pointing out that since then she's lost alot of weight and has a much healthier BMI...
Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett can all three go for Ed's vulnerable left flank whilst Nigel attacks both Dave and Ed from the right. As I pointed out I don't think Ed wins this, and his position in the debates could be trickiest of all.
Dave also of course has the worry from Nigel.
I can see "I agree with Nicola" coming along from Clegg...
As regards the seemingly low level of registration by University students, isn't it possible that a large number of these have been registered to vote at their home addresses by their parents?
Welcome as a PB.com poster btw.
I have to say it feels really wrong to publish the allegation, a) given it hasn't been proved and b) as it is somebody reporting about what somebody else said to them about what they had been told.
Any cover-ups have to be exposed, but it feels totally wrong to be naming names when the allegations at this stage are third and fourth hand accounts.
The left vote will be split 5 ways. Farage is unlikely to attract the necessary level of support so Dave looks to me as being the likely winnner.
Do Labour still have 0% chance of getting more seats than the Tories?
ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 29th March. 13 polls, with total sample 20,564
Lab 33.8% (nc)
Con 33.6 (+0.3)
UKIP 13.8 (-0.1)
LD 7.9 (-0.1)
Green 5.7 (+0.2)
Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3)
HIGHEST CON score since the very 1st ELBOW 10th August (33.7)!!!
LOWEST UKIP score since 24th August
Last four Labour leads:
22nd March 0.5
15th March 0.0
8th March 0.3
1st March 0.7
ELBOW in graphical form
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 29m 29 minutes ago
ELBOW week-ending 29th Mar: Lab 33.8 (nc), Con 33.6 (+0.3), UKIP 13.8 (-0.1), LD 7.9 (-0.1), Grn 5.7 (+0.2).
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582183414062813184
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 50m 50 minutes ago
Labour % leads in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since August 2014. Week-ending 29th March = 0.2% (-0.3)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582183941739847681
Con and Lab in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3) = second lowest ever!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582185731872940032
-17 The Field
+85 Wood
+33 Cameron
+28 Sturgeon.
LibDems and Greens in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since August 2014. Update for w/e 29th March
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582186238930731009
The Rise and Fall (possibly?) of UKIP? Scores in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Now =13.8%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582187057994444800
On actual registration, I don't see what more can be done. You can do it all online, as I understand it, and two nearest local councils have been putting out fliers, sticking up posters at bus stops etc etc for months now.
Amir Hossein Motaghi tells Iranian opposition TV that US is ‘mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other P5+1 members’
http://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-journalist-covering-nuke-talks-defects-to-west/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=19526bd3ab-2015_03_29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-19526bd3ab-54517705
Amir Hossein Motaghi, who was instrumental in the election of President Hassan Rouhani when he served as his personal aide during the Iranian election, asked authorities in Switzerland to grant him political asylum.
Montaghi told an Iranian opposition channel broadcasting from London that he did not see any sense in his profession as a journalist since he could only write what he was told to write.
According to the British Telegraph newspaper, Motaghi also harshly criticized the American role in the talks, saying the White House was attempting to persuade the other members of the P5+1 group of nations (US, England, France, Russia, China and Germany) to accept Iran’s point of view.
“The US negotiating team is mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other members of the 5+1 countries and convince them of a deal,” Montaghi said.
--------
What Amir Hossein Motaghi is saying is that the USA under Obama, is selling out the West, and betraying Israel, to curry favour with Iran and other similar muslim nations.
You want extra spending on public services, thats fine, you want to intervene more in industry, thats fine. You want to increase costs of energy, fine.
But to do so without regards to the extra costs of doing so is concerning. You must balance your books, if not in the short term, you must in the medium term.
If you want to spend more overall, you either have to grow the economy, increase taxes or borrow money.
Maybe im giving them a hard time, maybe they want to not increase spending, but change what we spend our money on. Tridant is always a good thing to list up as a saving, that would account for about £2billion of the £91 billion.
But nothing comes close to closing the gap between what we spend and what we earn.
The deficit is an issue that needs to be resolved, it cannot be sustained at its current levels. It cant be ignored, this isnt a westminster elite view.
Keynes would be turning in his grave at the idea people were using him as an excuse to be so loose with public spending.
The format is that the leaders will get to continually challenge other leaders during the debate, that should mean Cameron and Miliband are on the back foot.
Any leader to recite poetry during the debate
Any Leader to faint during the debate
A number of the lines in the lyric do actually rhyme.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Schwarz.
Not sure I see this happening. On the occasions I've seen her on QT she came across as a soft left wet blanket. With the Greens, Miliband, Clegg and Sturgeon, that ground should be pretty saturated.
Farage [unsure of the odds] may be likelier. How many people do social conservatives have to choose from?
Edited extra bit: Sturgeon's probably a bit feistier, to be fair, but still leftish.
Mr. Pulpstar, I agree, 3 is stingy.
I am a Welsh speaker but not a Plaid member (my brother is though) and i cannot stand the woman speaking
How are they going to get the deficit down?
1. She needs to perform well
2. The people voting for the "winner" need to put aside their party allegiance and recognise she did better than *their* guy.
The former seems quite likely - the latter pretty unlikely.
What would be really interesting would be to have a handicap market. @Shadsy?
PC's position isn't as strong as the SNP's mainly because Wales could never make it as an independent country whereas Scotland could.
In Thursday’s TV showdown, Ed boasted he should be PM because he stood up to President Obama in 2013 by voting down military action in Syria.
Texan Congressman Louie Gohmert, a possible Republican Presidential candidate next year, slammed Miliband, saying: “It may be my memory failing me but I don’t recall any Labour MPs being present in Congress that day.”
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/dave-leaves-fans-in-sari-old-state/
In the last debate,initial polls had Cam as winner and the latest one shows Ed winning the debate massively.
Alex Salmond has issued an extraordinary demand for control over the BBC in Scotland to be transferred to Edinburgh so its political coverage can be made more favourable to the SNP.
The former First Minister told the party conference in Glasgow that BBC Scotland must be devolved to Holyrood so that its supposed anti-Nationalist bias can be “resolved”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11502675/Alex-Salmond-demands-BBC-control-to-correct-anti-SNP-bias.html
Would that be bamboo shoots or some chopsticks?
I can see the Labour figures rising slightly if some who say they will vote Green decide to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories but otherwise the numbers overall feel relatively stable.
I think this election will come down to how efficient the various parties votes are spread and how many young people are registered to and/or actually vote.
The first has in past favoured Labour obviously but probably not to the same extent now due to Scotland and the 2nd part could potentially go against them and the Greens.
Not exactly the easiest of elections to bet on!
The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.
This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
No this isn't "Wings over Bath", but I think Jim Murphy has turned me into a bit of a fan tbh. I don't like liars and he is the biggest of the lot with his constitutional nonsense.
I'll probably be voting UKIP, but that may change come election day. If Dave is far enough behind and there is no chance of him winning I might change my mind
Both main parties have now locked horns and are engaged in an intense melee - polarising a little bit of alternative opinion around themselves - and are trying to wear each other out through attrition.
Can Farage turn that round?
They still can't.
I'd assume her best tactic is to work with Bennett and Sturgeon as the "real change smash the system peacefully" bloc which may make Ed look a pale imitation or relatively reasonable depending on one's view.
The fall in Labour happened just after the indyref and the up surge in the SNP. I think that had just as much impact, if not more, than the poor coverage that Labour got for their conference.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9
She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....
possible Republican Presidential candidate
Anyone any idea which parties will tag team an opponent?
Farage-Sturgeon-Wood vs The Unionists (OK Farage is a "Unionist" but he will be arguing as England)
Sturgeon-Wood-Bennett as leftists against Miliband/Clegg (wouldn't work against Farage or Cameron as their support doesn't overlap)
A Rainbow Coalition of Mili-Sturg-Wood-Bennett vs the others?
Cam-Clegg vs the Rest (Govt vs Oppo)
My favourite part was where she confused the hell out of him by admitting she and Labour had no coherent and workable plan to deal with the deficit.
Absolute masterstroke that and worth everything you pay her.
Is he a possible candidate in the sense that he's an American Republican who hasn't ruled it out?