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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might

SystemSystem Posts: 12,597
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

She’ll be fresh to a full national audience, has a pleasant manner, and handles herself well on TV. She’ll also attract less of the hostility that some of the others on the platform are likely to attract.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    Sorry PBers, Mike and I have smashed this into 33/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    Mike, have you ever won a 50/1 political bet before?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Wonder if the Progressive Alliance have prepared a coordinated message
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT @TCPoliticalBetting

    re: too many dispensing chemists

    We do. One of my friends owns a chain of chemists and has told me that the large multiples are cutting base salaries by replacing older pharmacists with newbies on lower rates. He's not doing that, but he has squeezed locum rates by something like 30%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,529
    That looks to be an outstanding bet Mike. Pretty much a crap-shoot on a field of seven.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    The link to the bet is here

    http://bit.ly/1xL7uuZ
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    I think Thursday's debate will be all about Farage to be honest...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    edited March 2015
    Fresh to a full national audience? I saw her on QT three days ago!

    Big price bets are always nice, but I still think the Party VI share is the most impt thing here and Cameron & Miliband are the best bets

    The female vote is split three ways/the nationalist vote is split three ways and the leftie vote is split three/four ways...

    Antifrank said it first while I was saying back both, but add in the "recovery effect" and Cameron seems the value.. Tories will all say he won and they have the biggest rep on YouGov
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tbh, I think most people outside of Wales will probably use her spots to go and put the kettle on.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Leanne has a very distinctive valleys accent which the audience will love or hate.
    Whilst I have little time for Plaid, she s very left wing and a small wager on her would be fun, although my money is on Ed to carry on his good work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Nigel Farage is ridiculously short at 7-4.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Kalman says....

    Lab 33.9%
    Con 33.2%
    UKIP 13.6%
    LD 7.9%

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Chart.PNG
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Lead.PNG
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    "...not bot being..."? Is that a mutation?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,781
    Surbiton

    "Is she (Katie Hopkins) Jordan?"

    No. But I think she's another one of Ed's knockers
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Leanne Wood is not that good a debater.

    Nicola Sturgeon is.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigel Farage is ridiculously short at 7-4.

    If UKIP are the most hated party, and Farage not much more popular, how on earth can he be fav?

    Of course personally I don't place as much emphasis on polls like that but plenty do

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,162
    edited March 2015
    A-ha!

    Nick Clegg turns into Alan Partridge as he hits the road in a bright yellow bus with a built-in studio to broadcast to local radio stations just like in comedy film

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3016737/Nick-Clegg-chasing-women-Lib-Dems-unveil-election-battlebus-party-thinks-female-voters-likely-switch.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    isam said:

    Fresh to a full national audience? I saw her on QT three days ago!

    Big price bets are always nice, but I still think the Party VI share is the most impt thing here and Cameron & Miliband are the best bets

    The female vote is split three ways/the nationalist vote is split three ways and the leftie vote is split three/four ways...

    Antifrank said it first while I was saying back both, but add in the "recovery effect" and Cameron seems the value.. Tories will all say he won and they have the biggest rep on YouGov

    I think there is value on quite a few of the picks as Farage's price is overdone.
  • Archibald_SchwarzArchibald_Schwarz Posts: 2
    New poster after years of lurking. So go easy on me.

    Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.

    How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?

    If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Surprise,surprise ..... Leanne Wood's price has been suspended!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    SMukesh said:

    Leanne Wood is not that good a debater.

    Nicola Sturgeon is.

    Nicola Sturgeon is going to give Ed Miliband kittens, fwiw I've done the following:

    Cameron £10 @ 4-1
    Sturgeon £5 @ 8-1
    Wood £2 @ 50-1
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,162
    edited March 2015
    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    I don't get this "harder to register to vote". I just had go through the process because of moving. Took me 2 mins and was easier than when I had to do it at the last GE.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Plaid Cymru = :lol:
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    New poster after years of lurking. So go easy on me.

    Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.

    How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?

    If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?

    Yes, I think the Greens could significantly underperform their poll ratings because of this.

    Labour to some extent too, though I understand a big part of their "ground game" is a registration drive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Can't see Bennett being declared the winner with her accent, can't see Wood either tbh but 50-1 in a 7 horse race is 50-1.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    SMukesh said:

    Leanne Wood is not that good a debater.

    Nicola Sturgeon is.

    Nicola Sturgeon is going to give Ed Miliband kittens, fwiw I've done the following:
    On the other hand, Sturgeon could defuse the big SNP fear that English voters have. Even though she's lefty, her manner is just so sane and grounded and reasonable, unlike Salmond. So, a good Sturgeon performance could help Labour in England.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Danny565 said:

    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    New poster after years of lurking. So go easy on me.

    Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.

    How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?

    If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?

    Yes, I think the Greens could significantly underperform their poll ratings because of this.

    Labour to some extent too, though I understand a big part of their "ground game" is a registration drive.
    Does anyone have figures for Bristol, specifically ?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't see Bennett being declared the winner with her accent, can't see Wood either tbh but 50-1 in a 7 horse race is 50-1.

    Plus Bennett's recent car crash goes afore her.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Why would the 95% who live outside Wales be remotely interested in someone completely irrelevant to them?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigel Farage is ridiculously short at 7-4.

    If UKIP are the most hated party, and Farage not much more popular, how on earth can he be fav?

    Of course personally I don't place as much emphasis on polls like that but plenty do

    The left flank is crowded, Coalition are in government and UKIP the only right of centre opposition
  • Archibald_SchwarzArchibald_Schwarz Posts: 2
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    I don't get this "harder to register to vote". I just had go through the process because of moving. Took me 2 mins and was easier than when I had to do it at the last GE.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    I don't get this "harder to register to vote". I just had go through the process because of moving. Took me 2 mins and was easier than when I had to do it at the last GE.

    Previously, student residences automatically enrolled all students. They now need to register individually, I gather.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,162
    edited March 2015
    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    I don't get this "harder to register to vote". I just had go through the process because of moving. Took me 2 mins and was easier than when I had to do it at the last GE.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    I don't get this "harder to register to vote". I just had go through the process because of moving. Took me 2 mins and was easier than when I had to do it at the last GE.

    Previously, student residences automatically enrolled all students. They now need to register individually, I gather.
    Yes I know that. I wasn't disputing that. I meant this general "its harder to register" meme, it isn't true.

    Specifically in regards to students. I would have presumed SU's around the country are emailing / twitter / facebook / instagram / leafleting their students with how to do this. I would presume those that would actually get out of bed on the day, can also spend 2 mins filling in an online form.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigel Farage is ridiculously short at 7-4.

    If UKIP are the most hated party, and Farage not much more popular, how on earth can he be fav?

    Of course personally I don't place as much emphasis on polls like that but plenty do

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigel Farage is ridiculously short at 7-4.

    If UKIP are the most hated party, and Farage not much more popular, how on earth can he be fav?
    Of course personally I don't place as much emphasis on polls like that but plenty do
    It is the MSM, headed by the BBC and Guardian, aided and heartily abetted by the lab/lib/cons, that claim that UKIP are the most hated party. Farage needs to be on his mettle though, and give his full attention, that this 7 headed debate doesn't really deserve.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    RodCrosby said:

    Kalman says....

    Lab 33.9%
    Con 33.2%
    UKIP 13.6%
    LD 7.9%

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Chart.PNG
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Lead.PNG

    EICIPM?

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Since this debate is in English and not Welsh, which she struggles to speak, this 50/1 could be a good bet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,781
    Pulpstar.

    I'm confused. You seem to have gone from Scottish polling expert to fully paid up Scottish Nationalist. Do you wear a kilt and have a red beard? I've put my most significant GE bets on your recommendations.

    Have I been listening to 'Wings Over Bath?'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited March 2015
    One thing - this is a 2 hour debate, Farage and Cameron are both fairly out of shape, particularly Farage - 2 hours under studio lights is going to be tough for him.

    Watching Clegg's recent Q&A session with Sky News, he is overly eager and still may well be. I also think he is in a real mess with tuition fees, he apologised for bringing them in but kind of seems happy with the arrangements in place. Bit like calling someone's Mum fat, saying sorry for it and then pointing out that since then she's lost alot of weight and has a much healthier BMI...

    Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett can all three go for Ed's vulnerable left flank whilst Nigel attacks both Dave and Ed from the right. As I pointed out I don't think Ed wins this, and his position in the debates could be trickiest of all.

    Dave also of course has the worry from Nigel.

    I can see "I agree with Nicola" coming along from Clegg...
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2015
    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    New poster after years of lurking. So go easy on me.

    Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.

    How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?

    If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?

    Isn't it in fact far easier this time? - I have seen stuff through our post box in just the last few weeks urging people to register if they haven't already done so. Previously if one wasn't entered on the annual registration form in the the preceeding October, then you missed out.
    As regards the seemingly low level of registration by University students, isn't it possible that a large number of these have been registered to vote at their home addresses by their parents?
    Welcome as a PB.com poster btw.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    A lot obviously rests on how representative the YouGov sample is after the show. If 93% of Conservatives go for Cameron as they did in the ICM on Thursday, then there's a good chance he'll win no matter what he does.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Charles said:

    FPT @TCPoliticalBetting
    re: too many dispensing chemists
    We do. One of my friends owns a chain of chemists and has told me that the large multiples are cutting base salaries by replacing older pharmacists with newbies on lower rates. He's not doing that, but he has squeezed locum rates by something like 30%.

    Thanks for confirmation that I was not imagining reading it.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - this is a 2 hour debate, Farage and Cameron are both fairly out of shape, particularly Farage - 2 hours under studio lights is going to be tough for him.

    Watching Clegg's recent Q&A session with Sky News, he is overly eager and still may well be. I also think he is in a real mess with tuition fees, he apologised for bringing them in but kind of seems happy with the arrangements in place. Bit like calling someone's Mum fat, saying sorry for it and then pointing out that since then she's lost alot of weight and has a much healthier BMI...

    Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett can all three go for Ed's vulnerable left flank whilst Nigel attacks both Dave and Ed from the right. As I pointed out I don't think Ed wins this, and his position in the debates could be trickiest of all.

    Dave also of course has the worry from Nigel.

    I can see "I agree with Nicola" coming along from Clegg...

    Its an interesting betting heat as so many cases can be made for and against

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,162
    I don't think it has been mentioned on here, but the Mail has named a very famous politician who has been reported to the police over the whole VIP paedo ring.

    I have to say it feels really wrong to publish the allegation, a) given it hasn't been proved and b) as it is somebody reporting about what somebody else said to them about what they had been told.

    Any cover-ups have to be exposed, but it feels totally wrong to be naming names when the allegations at this stage are third and fourth hand accounts.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - this is a 2 hour debate, Farage and Cameron are both fairly out of shape, particularly Farage - 2 hours under studio lights is going to be tough for him.

    Watching Clegg's recent Q&A session with Sky News, he is overly eager and still may well be. I also think he is in a real mess with tuition fees, he apologised for bringing them in but kind of seems happy with the arrangements in place. Bit like calling someone's Mum fat, saying sorry for it and then pointing out that since then she's lost alot of weight and has a much healthier BMI...

    Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett can all three go for Ed's vulnerable left flank whilst Nigel attacks both Dave and Ed from the right. As I pointed out I don't think Ed wins this, and his position in the debates could be trickiest of all.

    Dave also of course has the worry from Nigel.

    I can see "I agree with Nicola" coming along from Clegg...

    So your winner is .....?

    The left vote will be split 5 ways. Farage is unlikely to attract the necessary level of support so Dave looks to me as being the likely winnner.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,781
    Rod Crosby.

    Do Labour still have 0% chance of getting more seats than the Tories?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,289
    edited March 2015
    It's ELBOW time again!

    ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 29th March. 13 polls, with total sample 20,564

    Lab 33.8% (nc)
    Con 33.6 (+0.3)
    UKIP 13.8 (-0.1)
    LD 7.9 (-0.1)
    Green 5.7 (+0.2)

    Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3)

    HIGHEST CON score since the very 1st ELBOW 10th August (33.7)!!!
    LOWEST UKIP score since 24th August

    Last four Labour leads:

    22nd March 0.5
    15th March 0.0
    8th March 0.3
    1st March 0.7

    ELBOW in graphical form

    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 29m 29 minutes ago
    ELBOW week-ending 29th Mar: Lab 33.8 (nc), Con 33.6 (+0.3), UKIP 13.8 (-0.1), LD 7.9 (-0.1), Grn 5.7 (+0.2).
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582183414062813184
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,289


    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 50m 50 minutes ago
    Labour % leads in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since August 2014. Week-ending 29th March = 0.2% (-0.3)
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582183941739847681
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,289
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 30m30 minutes ago
    Con and Lab in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3) = second lowest ever!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582185731872940032
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - this is a 2 hour debate, Farage and Cameron are both fairly out of shape, particularly Farage - 2 hours under studio lights is going to be tough for him.

    Watching Clegg's recent Q&A session with Sky News, he is overly eager and still may well be. I also think he is in a real mess with tuition fees, he apologised for bringing them in but kind of seems happy with the arrangements in place. Bit like calling someone's Mum fat, saying sorry for it and then pointing out that since then she's lost alot of weight and has a much healthier BMI...

    Sturgeon, Wood and Bennett can all three go for Ed's vulnerable left flank whilst Nigel attacks both Dave and Ed from the right. As I pointed out I don't think Ed wins this, and his position in the debates could be trickiest of all.

    Dave also of course has the worry from Nigel.

    I can see "I agree with Nicola" coming along from Clegg...

    So your winner is .....?

    The left vote will be split 5 ways. Farage is unlikely to attract the necessary level of support so Dave looks to me as being the likely winnner.
    I don't know who the winner is, but I can find cases for Cameron, Sturgeon and Wood at their prices so I've backed the three of them.

    -17 The Field
    +85 Wood
    +33 Cameron
    +28 Sturgeon.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Welcome, Sir
    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    New poster after years of lurking. So go easy on me.

    Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.

    How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?

    If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?

  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    I believe looking back to GE campaign that ICM polls will start going weekly starting from next week.Since they have usually been the most favorable for Lib Dems there is reasonable chance of seeing a double digit figure for the Lib Dems and, looking at recent ICM polls the likelihood of UKIP being pushed into fourth place.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Roger said:

    Rod Crosby.

    Do Labour still have 0% chance of getting more seats than the Tories?

    According to L&N for the past year or more. Yes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Will anyone take my bet that "I like blinking, I do" will start trending on Twitter during the debates?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,289
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 28m28 minutes ago
    LibDems and Greens in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since August 2014. Update for w/e 29th March

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582186238930731009
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,289
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 25m25 minutes ago
    The Rise and Fall (possibly?) of UKIP? Scores in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Now =13.8%

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582187057994444800
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,072
    Archibald_Schwarz said:

    New poster after years of lurking. So go easy on me.

    Have a question which has been bugging me, so hope that someone can put my mind to rest.

    How - if at all - are the polls reflecting the relatively greater difficulty of registering to vote this time?

    A few weeks ago, I was at a university with 6,500 students and was told that only 22 had registered at that stage.

    Might there be a quite a measurable slice of voters who are giving their voting intentions to pollsters, but will find they aren't eligible to vote on the day?

    If so, I would hazard a guess that this would disproportionately hurt the Labour and Green vote, but - if so - by how much?

    Welcome aboard and excellent first question. I've been asking the same in recent months. I think pollsters need to exclude people who are unsure whether they are registered.

    On actual registration, I don't see what more can be done. You can do it all online, as I understand it, and two nearest local councils have been putting out fliers, sticking up posters at bus stops etc etc for months now.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Iranian journalist covering nuke talks defects to West
    Amir Hossein Motaghi tells Iranian opposition TV that US is ‘mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other P5+1 members’

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-journalist-covering-nuke-talks-defects-to-west/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=19526bd3ab-2015_03_29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-19526bd3ab-54517705

    Amir Hossein Motaghi, who was instrumental in the election of President Hassan Rouhani when he served as his personal aide during the Iranian election, asked authorities in Switzerland to grant him political asylum.

    Montaghi told an Iranian opposition channel broadcasting from London that he did not see any sense in his profession as a journalist since he could only write what he was told to write.

    According to the British Telegraph newspaper, Motaghi also harshly criticized the American role in the talks, saying the White House was attempting to persuade the other members of the P5+1 group of nations (US, England, France, Russia, China and Germany) to accept Iran’s point of view.

    “The US negotiating team is mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other members of the 5+1 countries and convince them of a deal,” Montaghi said.
    --------
    What Amir Hossein Motaghi is saying is that the USA under Obama, is selling out the West, and betraying Israel, to curry favour with Iran and other similar muslim nations.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    “@DICS131294: And people wonder why this country us in a mess. pic.twitter.com/SNs1SSQAMk” Have gone very quiet on that scandal, havn't they??

    — john selfe (@SelfeJohn) March 29, 2015
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If I was to bet it would be on Cameron.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited March 2015
    Has the 'left' as she describes herself, and her progressive colleagues, always been fiscally naive?

    You want extra spending on public services, thats fine, you want to intervene more in industry, thats fine. You want to increase costs of energy, fine.

    But to do so without regards to the extra costs of doing so is concerning. You must balance your books, if not in the short term, you must in the medium term.

    If you want to spend more overall, you either have to grow the economy, increase taxes or borrow money.

    Maybe im giving them a hard time, maybe they want to not increase spending, but change what we spend our money on. Tridant is always a good thing to list up as a saving, that would account for about £2billion of the £91 billion.

    But nothing comes close to closing the gap between what we spend and what we earn.

    The deficit is an issue that needs to be resolved, it cannot be sustained at its current levels. It cant be ignored, this isnt a westminster elite view.

    Keynes would be turning in his grave at the idea people were using him as an excuse to be so loose with public spending.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    RodCrosby said:

    Roger said:

    Rod Crosby.

    Do Labour still have 0% chance of getting more seats than the Tories?

    According to L&N for the past year or more. Yes.
    Are you sure you are calculating the L&N model right? Because their forecast at the LSE Conference last week was Con288/Lab286. Which would suggest they think Lab most seats is very possible.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigel Farage is ridiculously short at 7-4.

    If UKIP are the most hated party, and Farage not much more popular, how on earth can he be fav?

    Of course personally I don't place as much emphasis on polls like that but plenty do

    If UKIP voters emphatically choose him and he gets a bit from both Conservative and Labour, that should be enough to get him the win.

    The format is that the leaders will get to continually challenge other leaders during the debate, that should mean Cameron and Miliband are on the back foot.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Leanne Wood is now back in the betting at 33's.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,072
    Betfair Sportsbook have some interesting bets up for 7-way:

    Any leader to recite poetry during the debate

    Any Leader to faint during the debate
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Quincel said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Roger said:

    Rod Crosby.

    Do Labour still have 0% chance of getting more seats than the Tories?

    According to L&N for the past year or more. Yes.
    Are you sure you are calculating the L&N model right? Because their forecast at the LSE Conference last week was Con288/Lab286. Which would suggest they think Lab most seats is very possible.
    Yep, I noticed that too. Unless the author of that LSE Conference table had got it round their neck. Remember Prosser had the LibDems at a laughable 48 seats, when one can back them at 12/1 to score any number over 40!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    notme said:

    Has the 'left' as she describes herself, and her progressive colleagues, always been fiscally naive?

    You want extra spending on public services, thats fine, you want to intervene more in industry, thats fine. You want to increase costs of energy, fine.

    But to do so without regards to the extra costs of doing so is concerning. You must balance your books, if not in the short term, you must in the medium term.

    If you want to spend more overall, you either have to grow the economy, increase taxes or borrow money.

    Maybe im giving them a hard time, maybe they want to not increase spending, but change what we spend our money on. Tridant is always a good thing to list up as a saving, that would account for about £2billion of the £91 billion.

    But nothing comes close to closing the gap between what we spend and what we earn.

    The deficit is an issue that needs to be resolved, it cannot be sustained at its current levels. It cant be ignored, this isnt a westminster elite view.

    Keynes would be turning in his grave at the idea people were using him as an excuse to be so loose with public spending.

    Cancel Trident and de-rail HS2 !
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2015
    rottenborough said:

    Betfair Sportsbook have some interesting bets up for 7-way:

    Any leader to recite poetry during the debate

    Any Leader to faint during the debate

    Does "Ernie, Ernie and he drove the fastest milk cart in the West" qualify as poetry perchance?
    A number of the lines in the lyric do actually rhyme.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeK said:

    Iranian journalist covering nuke talks defects to West
    Amir Hossein Motaghi tells Iranian opposition TV that US is ‘mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other P5+1 members’

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-journalist-covering-nuke-talks-defects-to-west/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=19526bd3ab-2015_03_29&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-19526bd3ab-54517705

    Amir Hossein Motaghi, who was instrumental in the election of President Hassan Rouhani when he served as his personal aide during the Iranian election, asked authorities in Switzerland to grant him political asylum.

    Montaghi told an Iranian opposition channel broadcasting from London that he did not see any sense in his profession as a journalist since he could only write what he was told to write.

    According to the British Telegraph newspaper, Motaghi also harshly criticized the American role in the talks, saying the White House was attempting to persuade the other members of the P5+1 group of nations (US, England, France, Russia, China and Germany) to accept Iran’s point of view.

    “The US negotiating team is mainly there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other members of the 5+1 countries and convince them of a deal,” Montaghi said.
    --------
    What Amir Hossein Motaghi is saying is that the USA under Obama, is selling out the West, and betraying Israel, to curry favour with Iran and other similar muslim nations.

    Obama has finally grown a pair. Putting Israel where it belongs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    edited March 2015
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Schwarz.

    Not sure I see this happening. On the occasions I've seen her on QT she came across as a soft left wet blanket. With the Greens, Miliband, Clegg and Sturgeon, that ground should be pretty saturated.

    Farage [unsure of the odds] may be likelier. How many people do social conservatives have to choose from?

    Edited extra bit: Sturgeon's probably a bit feistier, to be fair, but still leftish.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    peter_from_putney said:

    Leanne Wood is now back in the betting at 33's.

    If I had the float I'd gladly take that on. No way is Wood going to win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Schwarz.

    Not sure I see this happening. On the occasions I've seen her on QT she came across as a soft left wet blanket. With the Greens, Miliband, Clegg and Sturgeon, that ground should be pretty saturated.

    Farage [unsure of the odds] may be likelier. How many people do social conservatives have to choose from?

    Edited extra bit: Sturgeon's probably a bit feistier, to be fair, but still leftish.

    He is likelier, but he is not value at 2-1.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Quincel said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Roger said:

    Rod Crosby.

    Do Labour still have 0% chance of getting more seats than the Tories?

    According to L&N for the past year or more. Yes.
    Are you sure you are calculating the L&N model right? Because their forecast at the LSE Conference last week was Con288/Lab286. Which would suggest they think Lab most seats is very possible.
    Yes, unless they've change their model/are finding PM approval data from other sources/have been misreported....
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Schwarz.

    Not sure I see this happening. On the occasions I've seen her on QT she came across as a soft left wet blanket. With the Greens, Miliband, Clegg and Sturgeon, that ground should be pretty saturated.

    Farage [unsure of the odds] may be likelier. How many people do social conservatives have to choose from?

    Edited extra bit: Sturgeon's probably a bit feistier, to be fair, but still leftish.

    Sturgeon "leftish" ..... I would say that's putting it very, very mildly!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Putney, I like understatement.

    Mr. Pulpstar, I agree, 3 is stingy.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    She was on Question Time on Thursday and the majority of posters on the QT forum on Digital Spy the reaction was negative mainly the policies and her voice

    I am a Welsh speaker but not a Plaid member (my brother is though) and i cannot stand the woman speaking
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    surbiton said:

    notme said:

    Has the 'left' as she describes herself, and her progressive colleagues, always been fiscally naive?

    You want extra spending on public services, thats fine, you want to intervene more in industry, thats fine. You want to increase costs of energy, fine.

    But to do so without regards to the extra costs of doing so is concerning. You must balance your books, if not in the short term, you must in the medium term.

    If you want to spend more overall, you either have to grow the economy, increase taxes or borrow money.

    Maybe im giving them a hard time, maybe they want to not increase spending, but change what we spend our money on. Tridant is always a good thing to list up as a saving, that would account for about £2billion of the £91 billion.

    But nothing comes close to closing the gap between what we spend and what we earn.

    The deficit is an issue that needs to be resolved, it cannot be sustained at its current levels. It cant be ignored, this isnt a westminster elite view.

    Keynes would be turning in his grave at the idea people were using him as an excuse to be so loose with public spending.

    Cancel Trident and de-rail HS2 !
    These are going to make up the difference, with HS2 coming from capital investment, not the 'deficit'.

    How are they going to get the deficit down?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    In order for the bet to win, 2 things need to happen;

    1. She needs to perform well
    2. The people voting for the "winner" need to put aside their party allegiance and recognise she did better than *their* guy.

    The former seems quite likely - the latter pretty unlikely.

    What would be really interesting would be to have a handicap market. @Shadsy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Listened to a bio on Radio 4 last night as I went to get a chinese about Leanne Wood. Before becoming leader she got her knuckles rapped for being too far left for PC...

    PC's position isn't as strong as the SNP's mainly because Wales could never make it as an independent country whereas Scotland could.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Ed making friends & influencing people:

    In Thursday’s TV showdown, Ed boasted he should be PM because he stood up to President Obama in 2013 by voting down military action in Syria.

    Texan Congressman Louie Gohmert, a possible Republican Presidential candidate next year, slammed Miliband, saying: “It may be my memory failing me but I don’t recall any Labour MPs being present in Congress that day.”

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/dave-leaves-fans-in-sari-old-state/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Ahem. I tipped Leanne Wood for this a couple of weeks ago.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Who decides who won the debate?

    In the last debate,initial polls had Cam as winner and the latest one shows Ed winning the debate massively.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Well, there's a surprise.....

    Alex Salmond has issued an extraordinary demand for control over the BBC in Scotland to be transferred to Edinburgh so its political coverage can be made more favourable to the SNP.

    The former First Minister told the party conference in Glasgow that BBC Scotland must be devolved to Holyrood so that its supposed anti-Nationalist bias can be “resolved”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/11502675/Alex-Salmond-demands-BBC-control-to-correct-anti-SNP-bias.html
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    "as I went to get a chinese about Leanne Wood"

    Would that be bamboo shoots or some chopsticks?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 30m30 minutes ago
    Con and Lab in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3) = second lowest ever!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/582185731872940032

    So what this shows is that the Conservatives are basically on the same percentage as 6 months ago whilst Labour have lost about 3% most of which is down to the large increase in the SNP and the Greens
    I can see the Labour figures rising slightly if some who say they will vote Green decide to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories but otherwise the numbers overall feel relatively stable.
    I think this election will come down to how efficient the various parties votes are spread and how many young people are registered to and/or actually vote.
    The first has in past favoured Labour obviously but probably not to the same extent now due to Scotland and the 2nd part could potentially go against them and the Greens.
    Not exactly the easiest of elections to bet on!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    SMukesh said:

    Who decides who won the debate?

    In the last debate,initial polls had Cam as winner and the latest one shows Ed winning the debate massively.

    Is the "latest one" the poll of people who didn't watch it but think they did?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

    The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

    This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    Gibraltar score at Hampden 1-1!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Roger said:

    Pulpstar.

    I'm confused. You seem to have gone from Scottish polling expert to fully paid up Scottish Nationalist. Do you wear a kilt and have a red beard? I've put my most significant GE bets on your recommendations.

    Have I been listening to 'Wings Over Bath?'

    Crikey !

    No this isn't "Wings over Bath", but I think Jim Murphy has turned me into a bit of a fan tbh. I don't like liars and he is the biggest of the lot with his constitutional nonsense.

    I'll probably be voting UKIP, but that may change come election day. If Dave is far enough behind and there is no chance of him winning I might change my mind ;). My political convictions aren't particularly strong right now, GE 100% a betting exercise.
  • NickolargeNickolarge Posts: 6
    I prefer the 100-1 on Betfair for any leader to throw a punch at one of the others.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Saltire said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 30m30 minutes ago
    Con and Lab in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3) = second lowest ever!

    So what this shows is that the Conservatives are basically on the same percentage as 6 months ago whilst Labour have lost about 3% most of which is down to the large increase in the SNP and the Greens
    I can see the Labour figures rising slightly if some who say they will vote Green decide to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories but otherwise the numbers overall feel relatively stable.
    I think this election will come down to how efficient the various parties votes are spread and how many young people are registered to and/or actually vote.
    The first has in past favoured Labour obviously but probably not to the same extent now due to Scotland and the 2nd part could potentially go against them and the Greens.
    Not exactly the easiest of elections to bet on!
    It looks to me like the Conservatives have recovered from their dip post-Carswell defection. But Labour have been suffering since their disastrous October party conference, and never regained a decisive lead.

    Both main parties have now locked horns and are engaged in an intense melee - polarising a little bit of alternative opinion around themselves - and are trying to wear each other out through attrition.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    She sounds very Welsh.
  • NickolargeNickolarge Posts: 6
    CarlottaVance said:

    Ed making friends & influencing people:

    In Thursday’s TV showdown, Ed boasted he should be PM because he stood up to President Obama in 2013 by voting down military action in Syria.

    Texan Congressman Louie Gohmert, a possible Republican Presidential candidate next year, slammed Miliband, saying: “It may be my memory failing me but I don’t recall any Labour MPs being present in Congress that day.”

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/dave-leaves-fans-in-sari-old-state/

    Who in hell cares what some Texan arse says?

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Kalman says....

    Lab 33.9%
    Con 33.2%
    UKIP 13.6%
    LD 7.9%

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Chart.PNG
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Lead.PNG

    Looks like UKIP peaked at around 17.5% immediately after Clacton (and again after Rochester), and have slid by nearly 4% since...

    Can Farage turn that round?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    SMukesh said:

    Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

    The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

    This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.


    They still can't.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    At 50-1 ( or 33-1 if that's where we are now) sure worth a punt. I'm worth a punt in the ring against Mike Tyson at super long odds as there's just a chance he'll trip in the first two seconds and land on my knee with his chin, but barring some similar wild event I cannot see Wood winning. Likely she'll look like a discount version of Sturgeon with her main task being trying not to just repeat what Sturgeon's just said with a Welsh slant, which may come across as irritating and irrelevant with the 95% of the electorate that's not Welsh. It's just as likely in my view she'll have a Bennett LBC interview type event.

    I'd assume her best tactic is to work with Bennett and Sturgeon as the "real change smash the system peacefully" bloc which may make Ed look a pale imitation or relatively reasonable depending on one's view.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Casino_Royale said:

    Saltire said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 30m30 minutes ago
    Con and Lab in ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) since Aug 2014. Lab lead 0.2% (-0.3) = second lowest ever!

    So what this shows is that the Conservatives are basically on the same percentage as 6 months ago whilst Labour have lost about 3% most of which is down to the large increase in the SNP and the Greens
    I can see the Labour figures rising slightly if some who say they will vote Green decide to vote for the party best placed to beat the Tories but otherwise the numbers overall feel relatively stable.
    I think this election will come down to how efficient the various parties votes are spread and how many young people are registered to and/or actually vote.
    The first has in past favoured Labour obviously but probably not to the same extent now due to Scotland and the 2nd part could potentially go against them and the Greens.
    Not exactly the easiest of elections to bet on!
    It looks to me like the Conservatives have recovered from their dip post-Carswell defection. But Labour have been suffering since their disastrous October party conference, and never regained a decisive lead.

    Both main parties have now locked horns and are engaged in an intense melee - polarising a little bit of alternative opinion around themselves - and are trying to wear each other out through attrition.
    I don't think people change who they are going to vote for based on an unknown ( to the general public) MP changing parties.
    The fall in Labour happened just after the indyref and the up surge in the SNP. I think that had just as much impact, if not more, than the poor coverage that Labour got for their conference.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SMukesh said:

    Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

    The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

    This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

    Did we watch the same interview?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02n0pk9

    She was waffle and anecdote versus facts.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Nickolarge said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Ed making friends & influencing people:

    In Thursday’s TV showdown, Ed boasted he should be PM because he stood up to President Obama in 2013 by voting down military action in Syria.

    Texan Congressman Louie Gohmert, a possible Republican Presidential candidate next year, slammed Miliband, saying: “It may be my memory failing me but I don’t recall any Labour MPs being present in Congress that day.”

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/dave-leaves-fans-in-sari-old-state/

    Who in hell cares what some Texan arse says?

    Evidently not Ed:

    possible Republican Presidential candidate
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    welshowl said:

    At 50-1 ( or 33-1 if that's where we are now) sure worth a punt. I'm worth a punt in the ring against Mike Tyson at super long odds as there's just a chance he'll trip in the first two seconds and land on my knee with his chin, but barring some similar wild event I cannot see Wood winning. Likely she'll look like a discount version of Sturgeon with her main task being trying not to just repeat what Sturgeon's just said with a Welsh slant, which may come across as irritating and irrelevant with the 95% of the electorate that's not Welsh. It's just as likely in my view she'll have a Bennett LBC interview type event.

    I'd assume her best tactic is to work with Bennett and Sturgeon as the "real change smash the system peacefully" bloc which may make Ed look a pale imitation or relatively reasonable depending on one's view.

    Hmm interesting..

    Anyone any idea which parties will tag team an opponent?

    Farage-Sturgeon-Wood vs The Unionists (OK Farage is a "Unionist" but he will be arguing as England)

    Sturgeon-Wood-Bennett as leftists against Miliband/Clegg (wouldn't work against Farage or Cameron as their support doesn't overlap)

    A Rainbow Coalition of Mili-Sturg-Wood-Bennett vs the others?

    Cam-Clegg vs the Rest (Govt vs Oppo)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited March 2015
    SMukesh said:

    Just watched the interview where Lucy Powell put Andrew Neil in his place.

    The best thing Ed did was to bring Lucy Powell into his office.

    This no-nonsense woman probably saved Ed`s career when 3 months ago there was a clamour for his resignation after the New Statesman declared Labour couldn`t win with Ed.

    Indeed
    My favourite part was where she confused the hell out of him by admitting she and Labour had no coherent and workable plan to deal with the deficit.

    Absolute masterstroke that and worth everything you pay her.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    CarlottaVance said:

    Nickolarge said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Ed making friends & influencing people:

    In Thursday’s TV showdown, Ed boasted he should be PM because he stood up to President Obama in 2013 by voting down military action in Syria.

    Texan Congressman Louie Gohmert, a possible Republican Presidential candidate next year, slammed Miliband, saying: “It may be my memory failing me but I don’t recall any Labour MPs being present in Congress that day.”

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/dave-leaves-fans-in-sari-old-state/

    Who in hell cares what some Texan arse says?

    Evidently not Ed:

    possible Republican Presidential candidate
    Everyone's talking about that Gohmert....

    Is he a possible candidate in the sense that he's an American Republican who hasn't ruled it out?
This discussion has been closed.

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