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I agree with Mike's analysis.
IF Lab lose only 30 to the SNP, then Lab need to make 38 gains from Con to equal them in seats. This is about a 3% swing to Lab with 34.5% Con share, 33.1% Lab share.
I calculate that the swing seats (#38 and #39) would be:
Wirral West (Lab Gain) 77 majority
Keighley (Con hold) 46 majority.
But IF Lab lose 40 to the SNP, then Lab need 48 gains from Con to equal them in seats.
In this case I calculate the swing seats (#48 and #49) would be
Harrow East (Lab gain) 5 majority!
High Peak (Con Hold) 83 majority0 -
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a href="DaemonBarber said:
Video LinkPong said:
snipantifrank said:
True professionals like Westlife only stand up from their stools when there's a key change.Alistair said:
The real betting money is on whether Milliband will get out from behind the lectern or Cameron stand up from the stool.antifrank said:
Just think, at least two adults will have been paid large sums of money to brainstorm the seating/standing arrangements of the party leaders for electoral purposes.isam said:
Someone open a windowDecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford)
26/03/2015 10:05
Ed Miliband will debate Jeremy Paxman on the Sky/ Channel 4 leaders debates from a lecturn, while David Cameron has opted to go for a stool
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That's the trouble with 'cults' - only they see the true light, those of differing views are either deluded or lying, and when you poke fun at them they get very very cross......Casino_Royale said:
I have a sense of humour, and can take the p*ss out of myself as well as others. It's what keeps us all grounded. But this does seem to be something the SNP (and, to be fair, UKIP too) seem to struggle with.Theuniondivvie said:
You're the bloke that likes 'hilarious' terms such as Yestapo and WaffenSSNP, ain't you?Casino_Royale said:
This might be wasted on you, but I don't think using Northern Ireland style sectarian language like that is helpful.Dair said:
I don't know what's funnier.Alistair said:
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP?Scott_P said:@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP?
Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder.
Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.0 -
It was one of the more cringeworthy elements from the SindyDebates; when Salmond et al moved to stage-front when answering Qs or delivering their summations.Alistair said:
I was going for Cameron stands up from stool to show he is passionate about something and Milliband walks in front of podium to explain something technical.antifrank said:
True professionals like Westlife only stand up from their stools when there's a key change.Alistair said:
The real betting money is on whether Milliband will get out from behind the lectern or Cameron stand up from the stool.antifrank said:
Just think, at least two adults will have been paid large sums of money to brainstorm the seating/standing arrangements of the party leaders for electoral purposes.isam said:
Someone open a windowDecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford)
26/03/2015 10:05
Ed Miliband will debate Jeremy Paxman on the Sky/ Channel 4 leaders debates from a lecturn, while David Cameron has opted to go for a stool
Not sure standing up from a stool will look any better, as noted below it could look a bit "westlife".0 -
Ed’s use of a lectern looks implies authority? – Besides, that’s the way Ed and Campbell rehearsed it and changing things at this late stage would simply confuse him.Charles said:
Strewth! What's the rationale behind that? He's going to look like an utter numpty - so keen to get a "debate" he's going to put up a defensive wall between himself and the journalist asking questions?isam said:
Someone open a windowDecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford)
26/03/2015 10:05
Ed Miliband will debate Jeremy Paxman on the Sky/ Channel 4 leaders debates from a lecturn, while David Cameron has opted to go for a stool0 -
Removedr_spyn said:
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I would have thought that something like that has to be done before the period of purdah starts on (or after?) March 30th. There are civil service rules to prevent controversial things like that being dropped into the middle of an election campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe "30 days" will become "30 working days" and they will be released after a new government has been formed. Otherwise it will be in the next few days.0 -
Ed needs to look more "Prime Ministerial" whereas Dave needs to look more "In touch".
So obviously stool/lecturn fits both their needs.0 -
testPong said:
some textantifrank said:
True professionals like Westlife only stand up from their stools when there's a key change.Alistair said:
The real betting money is on whether Milliband will get out from behind the lectern or Cameron stand up from the stool.antifrank said:
Just think, at least two adults will have been paid large sums of money to brainstorm the seating/standing arrangements of the party leaders for electoral purposes.isam said:
Someone open a windowDecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford)
26/03/2015 10:05
Ed Miliband will debate Jeremy Paxman on the Sky/ Channel 4 leaders debates from a lecturn, while David Cameron has opted to go for a stool
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@benrileysmith: Speaker Bercow to MPs: "I'm not going anywhere." So it is war...0
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So will David Cameron wear a tie?0
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Bild has named the A320 captain as Patrick S. He was the father of two children. He flew for over ten years for Lufthansa and Germanwings and had completed more than 6,000 flight hours on the Airbus 320.
The paper names the First Officer as Andreas L. He was "young". He was from Montabaur, in Rhineland-Palatinate. He had 630 flight hours. He joined Germanwings in September 2013 straight from the Lufthansa Flight Training School in Bremen.0 -
It is perfectly possible for medieval monarchs to have been murderous brutes by our standards, but to still have operated in a society that had some moral standards, and having your child nephews murdered would certainly have fallen foul of the moral standards that prevailed at the time.JohnLilburne said:
Whether he was a usurper is conditioned by the question of whether the throne of England was purely hereditary. It was elective up to 1066 and William I was succeeded by his second son. Other usurpers include Stephen, many of the houses of York and Lancaster, William III and George I. And I very much doubt they took quite the same view of child murder as being uniquely depraved as we do.Sean_F said:
Whether or not Richard III was a child-murderer, he was a usurper who executed people without trial. Even by the standard of his times, his behaviour was considered bad.Flightpath said:
No she didn't . What we are burying is a Shakespearian character epitomised by the greatest actor of his generation. That's the image. And everyone was a tyrant and despot in those days, you would be hard pressed to bury anyone who wasn't. The country was in an endless state of civil war - real war - not analogies to a war. We should be grateful that out of that came democracies.MikeSmithson said:
Marf hit the nail on the head.FalseFlag said:
He is our murderous tyrant though.dr_spyn said:Why are people venerating Richard III?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/why-are-people-venerating-richard-iii-he-was-a-murderous-tyrant/
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/580047344604975104
People who use the moral relativism argument often tend to be spectacularly bad at judging what previous moral standards there were, tending to use moral relativism to argue that there were no moral standards at all.0 -
Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.0
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There is danger for both here. For Ed the danger is that he looks stiffer/more uptight etc versus the more relaxed PM.Pulpstar said:Ed needs to look more "Prime Ministerial" whereas Dave needs to look more "In touch".
So obviously stool/lecturn fits both their needs.
But the danger for Dave is that he looks blasé/aloof versus the more serious Ed.
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He would have saved it for the campaign.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Just like he's waiting to announce the 2% of GDP Defence spending guarantee, and I expect something on the NHS in next week's debates or the 30th of April QT.0 -
Whine away.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Miliband came a cropper, fair and square.0 -
He would have asked it at some point - why hadn't Ed done his homework ?roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question?
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On topic: the only first term government since the War to lose >38 seats was Labour 1950 (starting from a landslide position)...0
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Very good spot.TheScreamingEagles said:
He would have saved it for the campaign.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Just like he's waiting to announce the 2% of GDP Defence spending guarantee.0 -
Are you upset because Cameron asked a question, or are you upset because he answered a question? At the moment it looks like both.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
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The fact that Labour supporters are still hurting twenty four hours later, tells you how much of a blow Dave delivered on Ed.TheWatcher said:
Whine away.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Miliband came a cropper, fair and square.0 -
Mikes assumption 1 that Con and Lab gain equal number of seats from Lib Dems looks flawed.On current polls looks like 10 gains for Labour, 9 for SNP but 20 for the Cons.0
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I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.0
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Just going though UKIP long-shots, so here's a few stand-out money-buying prices on the Tories for you:
Gillingham @ 1/7
Cambs NW @ 1/8
Kettering @ 1/60 -
I'm curious as to what Paxman does.SimonStClare said:
Ed’s use of a lectern looks implies authority? – Besides, that’s the way Ed and Campbell rehearsed it and changing things at this late stage would simply confuse him.Charles said:
Strewth! What's the rationale behind that? He's going to look like an utter numpty - so keen to get a "debate" he's going to put up a defensive wall between himself and the journalist asking questions?isam said:
Someone open a windowDecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford)
26/03/2015 10:05
Ed Miliband will debate Jeremy Paxman on the Sky/ Channel 4 leaders debates from a lecturn, while David Cameron has opted to go for a stool
If he stands behind a lectern as well then it could imply authority - or puts Paxman and Miliband on a level. But should the BBC be taking sides like that.
More fun would be if Paxman was mobile on the stage and Miliband was trapped and on the defensive
Either way, I'd imagine that Cameron andd Paxman on stools together will look much more relaxed and confident (although, of course, Cameron won't be able to hide any notes)0 -
The show runs from 9 - 10:35 so how does Miliband coming on at 10:05 work ?DecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
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And Miliband asked that question, arrogantly assuming that *he* was about to land a massive blow.TheScreamingEagles said:
The fact that Labour supporters are still hurting twenty four hours later, tells you how much of a blow Dave delivered on Ed.TheWatcher said:
Whine away.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Miliband came a cropper, fair and square.0 -
I suppose he can "debate" the points DC has made. But purely on timing alone it looks an absolutely appalling decision.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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If I read the format right
The programme will begin with Mr Cameron being interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and then responding to questions from members of the public, moderated by Kay Burley.
Mr Miliband will then face the studio audience before his interview with Paxman ends the programme.
http://news.sky.com/story/1452726/miliband-and-cameron-prepare-for-live-showdown0 -
@May2015NS: Maybe Labour did this to force a Cameron-Pax interview & are hoping for a slip, rather than so Ed can impress & lead news (which he'll miss)antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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Going first certainly allows DC to set an agenda for EdM to be questioned about too, as he's not fast on his feet- this looks like a tactical mistake irrespective of anything else.Tissue_Price said:
I suppose he can "debate" the points DC has made. But purely on timing alone it looks an absolutely appalling decision.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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Cameron was obviously desperate after his mauling by the pensioners and was probably on a warning to produce something better.To be fair to Miliband , he retained his composure and made some valid points in the teeth of the hideous braying Tories. Nick Clegg looked decidedly uncomfortable being associated with that mob.One look at Soubry's nodding donkey act makes me know why May 7th will be a red letter day.0
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That's been a given ever since the stories erupted in the press out of nowhere.TGOHF said:
Very good spot.TheScreamingEagles said:
He would have saved it for the campaign.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Just like he's waiting to announce the 2% of GDP Defence spending guarantee.
How else are they going to get the votes of @Casino_Royale and his ilk back?
The interesting play will be whether they fund it with a cut in foreign aid? "Foreign aid has an important role to play, yada yada, but our first priority is the safety and security of the British people, yada yada. We'll achieve the 0.7% target in 2025 not 2020 etc etc"0 -
I suspect Ed's thinking is that after paxman has grilled Dave (He'll be hoping for a Michael Howard moment) he'll be able to sneak in some responses.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
Also there's a chance someone in the studio audience might land a punch on dave, meaning Ed can stand up for that nice sensible mother-of-three in the front row who everyone agreed with.
I dunno. That may be what he's thinking. It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.0 -
I read it was 4 x 18 mins slots . 18 mins v Paxo and 18 mins vs audience and Kay Burley.Pulpstar said:
The show runs from 9 - 10:35 so how does Miliband coming on at 10:05 work ?DecrepitJohnL said:
Did not Miliband choose the later slot?Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Ed Miliband won't be on tonight until 10.05pm (via @chrisshipitv). Won't make the news and fewer people will watch him than Cameron.
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Of course, Labour MP's always sit quietly like meek little mice, clapping politely at appropriate moments in the proceedings. Not.roserees64 said:Cameron was obviously desperate after his mauling by the pensioners and was probably on a warning to produce something better.To be fair to Miliband , he retained his composure and made some valid points in the teeth of the hideous braying Tories. Nick Clegg looked decidedly uncomfortable being associated with that mob.One look at Soubry's nodding donkey act makes me know why May 7th will be a red letter day.
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The Times says it will be an accounting trick after the election.Charles said:
That's been a given ever since the stories erupted in the press out of nowhere.TGOHF said:
Very good spot.TheScreamingEagles said:
He would have saved it for the campaign.roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
Just like he's waiting to announce the 2% of GDP Defence spending guarantee.
How else are they going to get the votes of @Casino_Royale and his ilk back?
The interesting play will be whether they fund it with a cut in foreign aid? "Foreign aid has an important role to play, yada yada, but our first priority is the safety and security of the British people, yada yada. We'll achieve the 0.7% target in 2025 not 2020 etc etc"
(By treating our intelligence/spooks budget as military spending)0 -
Richard III was ruthless but not exceptionally so. Henry VIII had two of his wives executed and both Mary and Elizabeth had people burnt alive so define cruelty.OblitusSumMe said:It is perfectly possible for medieval monarchs to have been murderous brutes by our standards, but to still have operated in a society that had some moral standards, and having your child nephews murdered would certainly have fallen foul of the moral standards that prevailed at the time.
People who use the moral relativism argument often tend to be spectacularly bad at judging what previous moral standards there were, tending to use moral relativism to argue that there were no moral standards at all.
As for the "usurper" question, I'd add Henry IV to the list. Though he had a claim, the heir to Richard II was Edmund Mortimer but as he was only seven, he was as easily overlooked as Edgar Aetheling in 1066.
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I'll lay 2/15 Cambs NWTissue_Price said:Just going though UKIP long-shots, so here's a few stand-out money-buying prices on the Tories for you:
Gillingham @ 1/7
Cambs NW @ 1/8
Kettering @ 1/60 -
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Regarding this Argentina nonsense - in case people hadn't noticed in 1982 Argentina was a brutal military dictatorship fully supported by the west, one of all too many such tyrannies across the continent. Now it's a peaceful social democratic democracy, again one of the many across the region, which now thankfully sees much happier times. It is no more likely to invade a neighbour than Belgium is likely to invade France, no matter what adolescent fantasies the developmentally changed little middle aged boys on here have.0
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The prior view on PB expressed by lots of posters was that the format was unfair because whoever went second would have an advantage by being able to seize on alleged weaknesses in the responses from whoever went first. I do think it's a bit unfair, but given the format it's clearly best to go second.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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I doubt Paxo will ask the same questions to each person - or use the same tactics.
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Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...0
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Those posters seem clearly wrong to me. When we pitch for work we are advised to try to go first and to make our important points early (and incessantly). People are simply more attentive and more sympathetic earlier in proceedings. Later on, people simply tune out.NickPalmer said:
The prior view on PB expressed by lots of posters was that the format was unfair because whoever went second would have an advantage by being able to seize on alleged weaknesses in the responses from whoever went first. I do think it's a bit unfair, but given the format it's clearly best to go second.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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Sounds weird to have Paxman interview Cameron prior to the Q&A, but Miliband after it.0
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Given the way the broadcast media do balance (if you show A saying X, you also have to show B saying not-X) it may even look to people watching the coverage (as opposed to the full thing) like they are actually together debating each other.NickPalmer said:
The prior view on PB expressed by lots of posters was that the format was unfair because whoever went second would have an advantage by being able to seize on alleged weaknesses in the responses from whoever went first. I do think it's a bit unfair, but given the format it's clearly best to go second.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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No names released ? Irrelevant like the Glasgow bin lorry driver or...RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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1-6 on the Tories in Kettering is madness.
Away from the east coast - check
Popular local eurosceptic mp - check
EDL to split the UKIP vote - check
Labour 20 points behind - check
Ladbrokes price 1-16 - check !
101% book at best price - not too bad
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'Co Pilot now named as Andreas Günter Lubitz.'TGOHF said:
No names released ? Irrelevant like the Glasgow bin lorry driver or...RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3012053/Pilot-doomed-Germanwings-jet-locked-cockpit-crash.html0 -
I suppose it's the assessed price of a defection in that seat.Pulpstar said:1-6 on the Tories in Kettering is madness.
Away from the east coast - check
Popular local eurosceptic mp - check
EDL to split the UKIP vote - check
Labour 20 points behind - check
Ladbrokes price 1-16 - check !0 -
See earlier post. Patrick S. and Andreas L.TGOHF said:
No names released ? Irrelevant like the Glasgow bin lorry driver or...RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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Those wondering about Cameron's tactics about debates, expose, interrupting the campaign etc, just needs to take one look at the BBC news website today....there is one tiny mention of it..and front pages basically nothing.
I bet most people don't even know this thing is going on tonight.0 -
There is also the issue of if you say the same thing as the first person, it turns into "I agree with Nick" moments, and you get no credit.antifrank said:
Those posters seem clearly wrong to me. When we pitch for work we are advised to try to go first and to make our important points early (and incessantly). People are simply more attentive and more sympathetic earlier in proceedings. Later on, people simply tune out.NickPalmer said:
The prior view on PB expressed by lots of posters was that the format was unfair because whoever went second would have an advantage by being able to seize on alleged weaknesses in the responses from whoever went first. I do think it's a bit unfair, but given the format it's clearly best to go second.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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I'll live with that risk - reminds me of Maria Miller price in Basingstoke a while back.antifrank said:
I suppose it's the assessed price of a defection in that seat.Pulpstar said:1-6 on the Tories in Kettering is madness.
Away from the east coast - check
Popular local eurosceptic mp - check
EDL to split the UKIP vote - check
Labour 20 points behind - check
Ladbrokes price 1-16 - check !0 -
It's very greedy of them after their Clarkson blow out.JWisemann said:no matter what adolescent fantasies the developmentally changed little middle aged boys on here have.
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F1: undecided as to whether to do the pre-qualifying piece on Friday or Saturday (P3 finishes at something like 7am. Due to the buggered up new official F1 site design it's harder to find out timings, so I'm going by the BBC coverage, which weirdly appears to have an hour and a half of coverage for an hour long practice session).0
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In what way does it demean the PM for him to announce a policy to the House of Commons first?roserees64 said:Good point made on Radio 4 this morning, why did Cameron announce no Vat hike on PMQ and what would have happened if Miliband had not asked the question? Why did Osborne not announce it on Tuesday? Either way it demeans the prime minister.Asking Miliband a question is not the purpose of PMQ. If Bercow knew that there was a plot against him then that explains his reluctance to slap down Cameron.
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Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.0 -
Horrifically, then, all those on the plane would have been alive and fully aware of events until the moment it hit the ground. Ten minutes of absolute, unmitigated terror. Their families also have to live with that knowledge. Just horrible.RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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Miliband was routed yesterday, turned over when he thought he was on a certain win. Anna is up for the coming fight if you are excited at the prospect of her losing prepare to be let down, she has more than enough about to get the required votes to retain her seat.roserees64 said:Cameron was obviously desperate after his mauling by the pensioners and was probably on a warning to produce something better.To be fair to Miliband , he retained his composure and made some valid points in the teeth of the hideous braying Tories. Nick Clegg looked decidedly uncomfortable being associated with that mob.One look at Soubry's nodding donkey act makes me know why May 7th will be a red letter day.
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First or last - make an impact andset the bar, or rely on a splash at the end as its top of the panel's mind. Mid-point is a disadvantage.antifrank said:
Those posters seem clearly wrong to me. When we pitch for work we are advised to try to go first and to make our important points early (and incessantly). People are simply more attentive and more sympathetic earlier in proceedings. Later on, people simply tune out.NickPalmer said:
The prior view on PB expressed by lots of posters was that the format was unfair because whoever went second would have an advantage by being able to seize on alleged weaknesses in the responses from whoever went first. I do think it's a bit unfair, but given the format it's clearly best to go second.antifrank said:I cannot fathom why Ed Miliband would have actively chosen to go second tonight. I cannot see a single advantage of doing so.
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@MrHarryCole: Tory source on Labour's grandstanding: "Their anger shows how much they see Bercow as 'their' Speaker."0
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One other advantage of going first, you can bounce your opponent into having to make / defend something e.g. if Cameron is asked will you protect defence and he does as he did yesterday straight answer, yes 2%, because of our plans of paying the deficit, yaddda yadda yadda, and I challenge Ed Miliband to match this...but we know Labour can't afford this with their plans.
Where as if the person going second tries to do this, it is the obvious, well they aren't here now to defend themselves...and Tories / Cameron get a lot more time to think about a response for the next day.0 -
I've been speaking to someone about today's Bercow shenanigans.
He thinks why the Tories are doing this (and the Lib Dems have gone along with) is that they expect the next election to be very messy (Tories largest party and Tories & LD be the largest block but short of a majority)
Thus, the voting down of the Queen's Speech and procedures of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, will need some navigation, and the Tories and Lib Dems just don't trust Bercow to be fair on that.0 -
I think I'd have preferred it to have been due to a technical fault. You can hope to fix technical faults, but how do you stop someone from deciding to do something like that?RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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The position and the role if the Speaker needs reviewing and changing. Labour have politicised it out of existence.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Tory source on Labour's grandstanding: "Their anger shows how much they see Bercow as 'their' Speaker."
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It's a double edged sword here, surely. The earlier that it happens and the more people that are watching, the worse a cock-up will be and the more coverage it will get.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.
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Apparently interesting developments in marginal Ashfield - LibDem candidate reportedly suspended (source: Twitter, so treat as unconfirmed for now, but the writer is Stuart Thomas, head of BBC E Mids).0
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Prosecutor: Screams heard in the final moments...SouthamObserver said:
Horrifically, then, all those on the plane would have been alive and fully aware of events until the moment it hit the ground. Ten minutes of absolute, unmitigated terror. Their families also have to live with that knowledge. Just horrible.RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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Any cock-up (real or inferred) by either of them will be replayed for days.SouthamObserver said:
It's a double edged sword here, surely. The earlier that it happens and the more people that are watching, the worse a cock-up will be and the more coverage it will get.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.0 -
R64 is typifying that new breed, PBlefties. Certainly R64 is living on another planet. Planet Propaganda.macisback said:
Miliband was routed yesterday, turned over when he thought he was on a certain win. Anna is up for the coming fight if you are excited at the prospect of her losing prepare to be let down, she has more than enough about to get the required votes to retain her seat.roserees64 said:Cameron was obviously desperate after his mauling by the pensioners and was probably on a warning to produce something better.To be fair to Miliband , he retained his composure and made some valid points in the teeth of the hideous braying Tories. Nick Clegg looked decidedly uncomfortable being associated with that mob.One look at Soubry's nodding donkey act makes me know why May 7th will be a red letter day.
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Good news for those of us on Labour at 1/4 and 1/5 in this constituency if true.NickPalmer said:Apparently interesting developments in marginal Ashfield - LibDem candidate reportedly suspended (source: Twitter, so treat as unconfirmed for now, but the writer is Stuart Thomas, head of BBC E Mids).
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Meanwhile in the Commons:
PoliticsHome @politicshome 6m6 minutes ago
Tory MP David Davis says Speaker vote turned what should be a constitutional issue into "an ad hominem matter – a rather mean spirited one"0 -
If this Speaker vote carries, surely the practise of not contesting the Speakers seat needs to end.0
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True. But if more people are focused on the first pitch the more people will notice it.antifrank said:
Any cock-up (real or inferred) by either of them will be replayed for days.SouthamObserver said:
It's a double edged sword here, surely. The earlier that it happens and the more people that are watching, the worse a cock-up will be and the more coverage it will get.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.
EdM seems to be taking the less risk, less reward slot. Maybe he believes the polls.
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I think the descent was for eight minutes, and it would not have been obvious to the passengers at first that there was a problem. Still, four, five, maybe six minutes of knowing you were about to be murdered by one of the pilots of your flight. Just awful.SouthamObserver said:
Horrifically, then, all those on the plane would have been alive and fully aware of events until the moment it hit the ground. Ten minutes of absolute, unmitigated terror. Their families also have to live with that knowledge. Just horrible.RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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If somebody makes a massive blunder, doesn't matter if you go first or second, it will be major news the next day. If Cameron admits to eating babies, it doesn't matter if he says it at 9pm or 10.30pm.SouthamObserver said:
It's a double edged sword here, surely. The earlier that it happens and the more people that are watching, the worse a cock-up will be and the more coverage it will get.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.
I am also working on the principle that both leaders will do absolutely fine with the audience. Normally they are carefully selected not to be raving loonies, and you just agree to disagree politely with anybody who doesn't like your answer.
And as for Paxman, in his final years on Newsnight, he got Chloe Smith in a mess and that was it I think. He just mailed it in.0 -
It seems something of a piece with the missing Malaysian Airline plane, doesn’t it? Doesn’t prove, of course, that the co-pilot hadn’t passed out.OblitusSumMe said:
I think I'd have preferred it to have been due to a technical fault. You can hope to fix technical faults, but how do you stop someone from deciding to do something like that?RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
A PPRUNE contributor does suggest that the emergency door acces code might not be as well known as it should be.0 -
But I imagine the 'Nats for Nick' group, small though they may be, are devastatingly effective!NickPalmer said:
The SNP vote in Broxtowe is well-hidden...scotslass said:
In other words best not to clutch at staw polls. Trust in real ones like ICM. Right now you will learn more about the SNP vote in your own constituency than from the current YouGov cross breaks!0 -
I see you're having another Fukushima moment.RodCrosby said:
Prosecutor: Screams heard in the final moments...SouthamObserver said:
Horrifically, then, all those on the plane would have been alive and fully aware of events until the moment it hit the ground. Ten minutes of absolute, unmitigated terror. Their families also have to live with that knowledge. Just horrible.RodCrosby said:Breaking: Marseille Prosecutor confirms that co-pilot put plane into a descent while Captain was locked-out of flight deck. Numerous attempts to contact the plane were met with silence. Captain attempted to break-down the door. Co-pilot could be heard breathing "normally" all the way to impact, but never uttered a single word...
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Indeed - if Bercow is forced out, he will still be an MP. And if he believes he was shafted by the Tories it is unlikely he'll sit with them. It would be hugely ironic if he ended up holding the balance of power.Dair said:If this Speaker vote carries, surely the practise of not contesting the Speakers seat needs to end.
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I would agree that is perfectly plausible. And the second will always have answers referenced back to the first rather than considered on its own merits.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.
However to be fair its not as if the voters will have a chart with weighted criteria and be keeping a score.0 -
Batting second sometimes works, sometimes doesn’t. NZ chased down the Saffirs total, India were never, after the second wicket, anywhere near the Aussies.FrancisUrquhart said:
If somebody makes a massive blunder, doesn't matter if you go first or second, it will be major news the next day. If Cameron admits to eating babies, it doesn't matter if he says it at 9pm or 10.30pm.SouthamObserver said:
It's a double edged sword here, surely. The earlier that it happens and the more people that are watching, the worse a cock-up will be and the more coverage it will get.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.
I am also working on the principle that both leaders will do absolutely fine with the audience. Normally they are carefully selected not to be raving loonies, and you just agree to disagree politely with anybody who doesn't like your answer.
And as for Paxman, in his final years on Newsnight, he got Chloe Smith in a mess and that was it I think. He just mailed it in.0 -
Of course, but I think a cock up will get headlines whatever the weather. I don't think the additional damage would be that great by going first. If there is no cock-up and Dave plays a straight bat or does well the potential upside is larger than any downside from a cock-up as it would mean less people tune into Ed as their minds would be made up. Going first carries many, many more advantages. I was always told by my boss at Sony to go first when pitching ideas to senior management.SouthamObserver said:
It's a double edged sword here, surely. The earlier that it happens and the more people that are watching, the worse a cock-up will be and the more coverage it will get.MaxPB said:Ed chose to go second? That means Cameron will be on first and be in all of the headlines for the 5 minutes of the news that people watch. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
As with antifrank, when I was at Sony and was pitching an idea to management, I would always, always choose to go first because that is when people are more likely to listen. By the time you get to the second idea a lot of people have already made up their minds and they don't care about what comes next and will just sleep through the rest.0 -
That was my thought precisely. The election is so much on a knife edge that Bercow could be in a powerful position.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - if Bercow is forced out, he will still be an MP. And if he believes he was shafted by the Tories it is unlikely he'll sit with them. It would be hugely ironic if he ended up holding the balance of power.Dair said:If this Speaker vote carries, surely the practise of not contesting the Speakers seat needs to end.
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Still available, amazingly.antifrank said:
Good news for those of us on Labour at 1/4 and 1/5 in this constituency if true.NickPalmer said:Apparently interesting developments in marginal Ashfield - LibDem candidate reportedly suspended (source: Twitter, so treat as unconfirmed for now, but the writer is Stuart Thomas, head of BBC E Mids).
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If John Bercow was forced out of the Speaker's chair having just been elected to Parliament on the Speaker ticket, surely he would take the Chiltern Hundreds? What mandate would he have for taking any policy position at all?MikeSmithson said:
That was my thought precisely. The election is so much on a knife edge that Bercow could be in a powerful position.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - if Bercow is forced out, he will still be an MP. And if he believes he was shafted by the Tories it is unlikely he'll sit with them. It would be hugely ironic if he ended up holding the balance of power.Dair said:If this Speaker vote carries, surely the practise of not contesting the Speakers seat needs to end.
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That would be very funny.MikeSmithson said:
That was my thought precisely. The election is so much on a knife edge that Bercow could be in a powerful position.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - if Bercow is forced out, he will still be an MP. And if he believes he was shafted by the Tories it is unlikely he'll sit with them. It would be hugely ironic if he ended up holding the balance of power.Dair said:If this Speaker vote carries, surely the practise of not contesting the Speakers seat needs to end.
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Galloway, Bercow and Sylvia Hermon deciding the fate of the country.MikeSmithson said:
That was my thought precisely. The election is so much on a knife edge that Bercow could be in a powerful position.SouthamObserver said:
Indeed - if Bercow is forced out, he will still be an MP. And if he believes he was shafted by the Tories it is unlikely he'll sit with them. It would be hugely ironic if he ended up holding the balance of power.Dair said:If this Speaker vote carries, surely the practise of not contesting the Speakers seat needs to end.
What interesting times may be ahead.0
