I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
Ross Hawkins@rosschawkins·18 secs18 seconds ago What a coincidence. Just as we're about to show Boris' bike at home in D St on @BBCBreakfast a big van blocks out shot
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
Disagree - I think given the iconic nature of the Falklands and the dynamics of the election that all parties would support a vigorous response. Con can't not with UKIP on their flank & I suspect it would be disastrous for Ed Miliband to haver.
Additionally, I think we have much more in the way of defence (a squadron of planes plus a decent helping of Marines) based on the island so they will be able to keep anyone at bay for a while
Plus the ease with which the Argentinian navy, such as it is, could be dispatched by one of our modern destroyers. This threatens leaving troops got onshore with rapid and serious resupply problems engaged in a battle. It is nonsense really.
A agree, but I thought we'd withdrawn the standard destroyer that patrols the south atlantic? So don't know if we would be there in time to intercept an invasion fleet
There more fun part is what damage is La kirchner doing to Argentine US relations.
Currently she's traded Chinese ambitions on Taiwan and Russian ambitions in the Crimea for their support on the Falklands. Can't see hat being a sustainable position with the White House.
won't matter for the next 18 months though. That's her window
Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...
Is there a small upward trend in the LD vote?
Is there a straw I see to clutch?
The saddest prospect for me, as an ex-LD activist, in watching the resulkts expecting to be watching for an LD “HOLD” rather than hoping/expecting to see LD “GAIN” flashing up.
I reckon the Lib Dems could win 10% or so, given extra coverage in the campaign.
"Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?"
An interesting question.
How about ones where [1] a longstanding MP is stepping down, [2] demographic changes are slowly making the seat more Tory in any case, and [3] the opponent is well established and has come close to winning the seat before.
Gower in Wales has [1] Martin Caton stepping down;[2] it is a Labour seat since 1918, but the majority is now down to 2,638 having decreased steadily from a high water mark of 20,000 in the sixties, the industrial areas in the North of the seat are depopulating, and the South is gentrifying [3] the Tory opponent Byron Davies has fought the seat before and in the Welsh Assembly elections came within a few hundred of taking the seat. He is a fairly visible list AM for the area.
Even in a big victory -- some seat always buck the trend.
The last news story was from 3 months ago - and under "Future events" All I get is
"Sorry, we haven't got any upcoming events"
Someone needs to tell Gower conservatives there's an election in a few weeks. If they can't get a volunteer to spend an hour updating the website, then i'm guessing they're not too hot on the canvassing malarkey either.
"Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?"
An interesting question.
How about ones where [1] a longstanding MP is stepping down, [2] demographic changes are slowly making the seat more Tory in any case, and [3] the opponent is well established and has come close to winning the seat before.
Gower in Wales has [1] Martin Caton stepping down;[2] it is a Labour seat since 1918, but the majority is now down to 2,638 having decreased steadily from a high water mark of 20,000 in the sixties, the industrial areas in the North of the seat are depopulating, and the South is gentrifying [3] the Tory opponent Byron Davies has fought the seat before and in the Welsh Assembly elections came within a few hundred of taking the seat. He is a fairly visible list AM for the area.
Even in a big victory -- some seat always buck the trend.
The last news story was from 3 months ago - and under "Future events" All I get is
"Sorry, we haven't got any upcoming events"
Someone needs to tell Gower conservatives there's an election in a few weeks. If they can't get a volunteer to spend an hour updating the website, then i'm guessing they're not too hot on the canvassing malarkey either.
Gower was the venue for one of the activist road-trips a couple of weeks ago....
The good thing to come out of the Clarkson debacle is that the BBC are going to lose FIFTY MILLION smackers. New top gear will bring in diddly squat. THE BBC per se couldn't give a toss, those idiots in their ivory towers who know not how to manage their stars properly.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
They are going very strong on the fact that the Tories announced their VAT decision to the whole House of Commons rather than telling the select committee yesterday.
Apparently it's outrageous that a big decision should be held back for political advantage
Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...
Is there a small upward trend in the LD vote?
Is there a straw I see to clutch?
The saddest prospect for me, as an ex-LD activist, in watching the resulkts expecting to be watching for an LD “HOLD” rather than hoping/expecting to see LD “GAIN” flashing up.
Yes. The LDs have recovered to where they were back in September, and their trend is upwards.
IMHO, whilst polls represent a mere snapshot, a moving average can reveal a trend, particularly if you stick to a single pollster.
The chart below represents a longer 20-poll average and points towards a distinct move away from UKIP and Green, in favour of Labour, LibDem, and Tory.
The LibDem upswing is less obvious on this chart, but it does exist. It is also not easy to spot, but the Tories have been ahead of labour for the last 10 data points with this average. Click to enlarge...
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
They are going very strong on the fact that the Tories announced their VAT decision to the whole House of Commons rather than telling the select committee yesterday.
Apparently it's outrageous that a big decision should be held back for political advantage
This is the third day in a row that the SNP margin over LAB (In Scotland) has been less than 10 (6,2,7) - this has been reflected in increased LAB 2010 VI retention. Has Salmond's mouthing off put off some Labour deserters?
The LD VI 2010 retention is now greater than their losses to Labour (Feb retention 27.9, March ave td 28.4: Loss to LAB: Feb ave 28.9, March ave td 28.1) but losses to the Cons have increased. (Feb ave 14.2, March ave td 15.7)
Con 2010 VI loss to UKIP at 15.4 ave March td - down from Feb ave of 17.5.
"Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?"
An interesting question.
How about ones where [1] a longstanding MP is stepping down, [2] demographic changes are slowly making the seat more Tory in any case, and [3] the opponent is well established and has come close to winning the seat before.
Gower in Wales has [1] Martin Caton stepping down;[2] it is a Labour seat since 1918, but the majority is now down to 2,638 having decreased steadily from a high water mark of 20,000 in the sixties, the industrial areas in the North of the seat are depopulating, and the South is gentrifying [3] the Tory opponent Byron Davies has fought the seat before and in the Welsh Assembly elections came within a few hundred of taking the seat. He is a fairly visible list AM for the area.
Even in a big victory -- some seat always buck the trend.
The last news story was from 3 months ago - and under "Future events" All I get is
"Sorry, we haven't got any upcoming events"
Someone needs to tell Gower conservatives there's an election in a few weeks. If they can't get a volunteer to spend an hour updating the website, then i'm guessing they're not too hot on the canvassing malarkey either.
The LibDems in Torbay haven't updated theirs since October.
But.... their Facebook place is where they are posting now. Gower Cons seem to have an active Facebook group - but its a closed group....
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
One of the two pilots of the Germanwings plane that crashed in the French Alps was locked out of the cockpit, according to reports. Early findings from the cockpit voice recorder suggest the pilot made desperate efforts to get back in, sources close to the investigation say.
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
This is the third day in a row that the SNP margin over LAB (In Scotland) has been less than 10 (6,2,7) - this has been reflected in increased LAB 2010 VI retention. Has Salmond's mouthing off put off some Labour deserters?
The LD VI 2010 retention is now greater than their losses to Labour (Feb retention 27.9, March ave td 28.4: Loss to LAB: Feb ave 28.9, March ave td 28.1) but losses to the Cons have increased. (Feb ave 14.2, March ave td 15.7)
Con 2010 VI loss to UKIP at 15.4 ave March td - down from Feb ave of 17.5.
Behind the veil it is UKIP that is making the running:
'British more anti-EU now than last two decades,' survey shows There is growing discontent over the EU's powers but the NHS has British people's vote of approval
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
I'd also heard murmurings about Northfield from those in the know.
They tell me another seat to look at is Erdington. Not going to change this time, but the trends could be interesting.
The good thing to come out of the Clarkson debacle is that the BBC are going to lose FIFTY MILLION smackers. New top gear will bring in diddly squat. THE BBC per se couldn't give a toss, those idiots in their ivory towers who know not how to manage their stars properly.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
So the BBC is to blame for Clarkson ranting for 20 minutes at a BBC employee, then attacking him. Then Clarkson reporting himself to the BBC.
Possibly worth noting that the SNP lead in YouGov is well down for the third day running. I'm very dubious about unweighted subsamples, but a series of similar subsamples is worth a look.
In the hunt for surprises, I think Labour in Cambridge is a value bet. If you had to pick one seat in the whole of Britain where the LibDems were red, that would be it. And Julian Huppert, though well respected, has not been one of the coalition's awkward squad, as red Liberals would normally like. [Caution: I have no personal knowledge of how it's going at all.]
What's the feeling on Bexhill and Battle ? Strong Tory seat, but second place LDs are going to be obliterated, and Kippers didn't stand there in 2010. Legendarily strong senior citizens vote, but its another fading resort town which the kippers do well in. Tories should walk it, but it depends how many people in Bexhill read the Guardian) Presumably on a similar basis the Tories should take Eastbourne.
Anecdotally, I know the Labour candidate very well (she's my boss). She's fighting it as though it was a marginal, which I don't think Labour did last time. What that does to the overall picture in the seat, I'm not sure.
Another colleague lives in Clegg's patch. She's had 3 LibDem leaflets and one Labour leaflet, but nothing for a week from anyone. By contrast, I also know someone in South Thanet - she says voters are just rolling their eyes and hunkering down under a tidal wave of leaflets from everyone.
Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...
Is there a small upward trend in the LD vote?
Is there a straw I see to clutch?
The saddest prospect for me, as an ex-LD activist, in watching the resulkts expecting to be watching for an LD “HOLD” rather than hoping/expecting to see LD “GAIN” flashing up.
I have bet against my team for solace. So if Eastleigh or Yeovil fall then at least I can afford to drown my sorrows!
Back to the '50s looks about right: "UKIP more likely than the population as a whole to support the death penalty (75% to 48%), consider young people do not have enough respect for British values (86% to 66%), and believe that people who want to have children should get married (46% to 23%)." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32055110
Judging by the survey, those viewpoints seem pretty mainstream among the population as a whole.
I'd be very very surprised if Bexhill & Battle was anything other than solid Tory, Eastbourne looks like a good Tory likely. The local MP Stephen Lloyd is well thought of - but frankly the polling is against them.
Possibly worth noting that the SNP lead in YouGov is well down for the third day running. I'm very dubious about unweighted subsamples, but a series of similar subsamples is worth a look.
In the hunt for surprises, I think Labour in Cambridge is a value bet. If you had to pick one seat in the whole of Britain where the LibDems were red, that would be it. And Julian Huppert, though well respected, has not been one of the coalition's awkward squad, as red Liberals would normally like. [Caution: I have no personal knowledge of how it's going at all.]
What's the feeling on Bexhill and Battle ? Strong Tory seat, but second place LDs are going to be obliterated, and Kippers didn't stand there in 2010. Legendarily strong senior citizens vote, but its another fading resort town which the kippers do well in. Tories should walk it, but it depends how many people in Bexhill read the Guardian) Presumably on a similar basis the Tories should take Eastbourne.
Anecdotally, I know the Labour candidate very well (she's my boss). She's fighting it as though it was a marginal, which I don't think Labour did last time. What that does to the overall picture in the seat, I'm not sure.
Another colleague lives in Clegg's patch. She's had 3 LibDem leaflets and one Labour leaflet, but nothing for a week from anyone. By contrast, I also know someone in South Thanet - she says voters are just rolling their eyes and hunkering down under a tidal wave of leaflets from everyone.
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
So RAF Mount Pleasant is a complete waste of money, then. All we need is a sub on patrol now and then...
The good thing to come out of the Clarkson debacle is that the BBC are going to lose FIFTY MILLION smackers. New top gear will bring in diddly squat. THE BBC per se couldn't give a toss, those idiots in their ivory towers who know not how to manage their stars properly.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
So the BBC is to blame for Clarkson ranting for 20 minutes at a BBC employee, then attacking him. Then Clarkson reporting himself to the BBC.
The BBC knew he was a loose cannon. They should have had a minder. The BBC are responsible.. for ineptness. I don't defend what Clarkson did, but it should have never come to it. The BBC are idiots... they just flushed 50 million smackers down the toilet.
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
I'd also heard murmurings about Northfield from those in the know.
They tell me another seat to look at is Erdington. Not going to change this time, but the trends could be interesting.
The 2014 local election results in the 4 wards making up Northfield parliamentary constituency were rather good for the Conservatives , comparing with 2012 it looks like UKIP hit Labour disproportionately so the key would be if in a GE those votes went back to Labour . Certainly Northfield looks a better prospect for a Conservative gain than some of the other seats mentioned .
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
So RAF Mount Pleasant is a complete waste of money, then. All we need is a sub on patrol now and then...
Obviously defense in depth is good, but it's only really there as a backstop in case the navy fails
I'd be very very surprised if Bexhill & Battle was anything other than solid Tory, Eastbourne looks like a good Tory likely. The local MP Stephen Lloyd is well thought of - but frankly the polling is against them.
Possibly worth noting that the SNP lead in YouGov is well down for the third day running. I'm very dubious about unweighted subsamples, but a series of similar subsamples is worth a look.
In the hunt for surprises, I think Labour in Cambridge is a value bet. If you had to pick one seat in the whole of Britain where the LibDems were red, that would be it. And Julian Huppert, though well respected, has not been one of the coalition's awkward squad, as red Liberals would normally like. [Caution: I have no personal knowledge of how it's going at all.]
What's the feeling on Bexhill and Battle ? Strong Tory seat, but second place LDs are going to be obliterated, and Kippers didn't stand there in 2010. Legendarily strong senior citizens vote, but its another fading resort town which the kippers do well in. Tories should walk it, but it depends how many people in Bexhill read the Guardian) Presumably on a similar basis the Tories should take Eastbourne.
Anecdotally, I know the Labour candidate very well (she's my boss). She's fighting it as though it was a marginal, which I don't think Labour did last time. What that does to the overall picture in the seat, I'm not sure.
Another colleague lives in Clegg's patch. She's had 3 LibDem leaflets and one Labour leaflet, but nothing for a week from anyone. By contrast, I also know someone in South Thanet - she says voters are just rolling their eyes and hunkering down under a tidal wave of leaflets from everyone.
You mean Lord Ashcroft;s polling showing a substantial swing TO the Lib Dems is against them - Priceless .
The good thing to come out of the Clarkson debacle is that the BBC are going to lose FIFTY MILLION smackers. New top gear will bring in diddly squat. THE BBC per se couldn't give a toss, those idiots in their ivory towers who know not how to manage their stars properly.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
So the BBC is to blame for Clarkson ranting for 20 minutes at a BBC employee, then attacking him. Then Clarkson reporting himself to the BBC.
The BBC are to blame for not renewing his contract. He has not really been sacked. As such the BBC may get away with it since legally they may not perhaps have been able to 'sack' him. Its seems quite possible to me that the 3 of them would not have renewed their own contracts anyway. The deplorable incident need not have resulted in 'sacking' anyway. It has been used as an excuse not to renew the contract. Verbal tirades and scuffles happen in life and in business and especially in entertainment. At least the poor producer did not end up full of drugs in the bottom of a swimming pool. Some of the most popular guests on TG are former rock stars with a history of shocking behaviour - the audience love and forgive them. The BBC make money out of them.
As for changing channels - a new show may work. My thoughts are they need to try to evolve it as best they can. If I were May and Hammond however I would want as much of a share and say in it as Clarkson.
OT The Racing Post next Monday will include Matthew Engel's coverage of GE betting. Since this will be aimed directly at punters, it might move markets.
The good thing to come out of the Clarkson debacle is that the BBC are going to lose FIFTY MILLION smackers. New top gear will bring in diddly squat. THE BBC per se couldn't give a toss, those idiots in their ivory towers who know not how to manage their stars properly.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
So the BBC is to blame for Clarkson ranting for 20 minutes at a BBC employee, then attacking him. Then Clarkson reporting himself to the BBC.
The BBC knew he was a loose cannon. They should have had a minder. The BBC are responsible.. for ineptness. I don't defend what Clarkson did, but it should have never come to it. The BBC are idiots... they just flushed 50 million smackers down the toilet.
Actually their mistake was buying the production company.
If they had bought, say 21%, they would have stopped anyone else acquiring it, but still been able to pretend that it was an arms-length relationship (Clarkson clearly being a loose cannon). The brand doesn't have much sustainable value without the troika.
So basically they paid Clarkson a bunch of money and set him free. (And presumably, if Clarkson refused to renew the contract when it expires he was prevented from going to someone else...but now the BBC has decided not to renew it, well...)
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
Don't terrorists usually quickly claim responsibility for atrocities?
Not much point to 'secret terrorism'.....
Not always. Depends on what the terrorists are trying to achieve. Already the crash has caused pandemonium among German pilots. Perhaps the less said the better. Anyway we will know in a matter of days if I am right or wrong, providing that the authorities give out all the known facts.
This is the third day in a row that the SNP margin over LAB (In Scotland) has been less than 10 (6,2,7) - this has been reflected in increased LAB 2010 VI retention. Has Salmond's mouthing off put off some Labour deserters?
The LD VI 2010 retention is now greater than their losses to Labour (Feb retention 27.9, March ave td 28.4: Loss to LAB: Feb ave 28.9, March ave td 28.1) but losses to the Cons have increased. (Feb ave 14.2, March ave td 15.7)
Con 2010 VI loss to UKIP at 15.4 ave March td - down from Feb ave of 17.5.
I do fear that as we get closer to the date the SNP hubris will save Labour in Scotland. It may be the damage has already been sufficiently done in England though. Voters in marginals will have to think hard about just what their vote will bring.
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
This reminds me that by the end of the 1974-79 Parliament the entire SNP Parliamentary Group (allegedly) were alcoholics. Except for the chap from the Western Isles, who was TT.
The good thing to come out of the Clarkson debacle is that the BBC are going to lose FIFTY MILLION smackers. New top gear will bring in diddly squat. THE BBC per se couldn't give a toss, those idiots in their ivory towers who know not how to manage their stars properly.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
So the BBC is to blame for Clarkson ranting for 20 minutes at a BBC employee, then attacking him. Then Clarkson reporting himself to the BBC.
If it came before an industrial tribunal there is a very good chance they would find that the management of the BBC had been inadequate, and their processes either inadequate or poorly implemented, resulting in them being unprepared for and unable to handle the altercation, that is what they have found in most comparable cases, which is why most employers wont sack people in this sort of circumstance these days and will look for some sort of in house settlement (compensation, demotion etc).
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
Correct about the submarines. I suspect wrong about the Typhoons since the point of the MoD announcement is to prepare the way for more to go if intelligence says they might be needed. Even 4 Typhoons and their missiles can do a lot of damage to any attacking force. The simple fact is an attack on the Falklands would be a blatant act of war. It would cripple Argentina.
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
That's about the size of it. IIRC our plan for defence of the Falklands depends on good intelligence and rapid reinforcement of the base by air within 48 hours, in case of an immenient threat.
That said, one of the world's most advanced destroyers, an astute class hunter-killer submarine, a few of the world's most advanced fighter jets and even a couple of hundred well-trained infrantry is a good deterrent to thinking about it.
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
Correct about the submarines. I suspect wrong about the Typhoons since the point of the MoD announcement is to prepare the way for more to go if intelligence says they might be needed. Even 4 Typhoons and their missiles can do a lot of damage to any attacking force. The simple fact is an attack on the Falklands would be a blatant act of war. It would cripple Argentina.
Which is why it is all sound and fury, signifying nothing. BTW, is a combat personnel ratio of under 10% typical of to-day's RAF? I think that in the Army it's about 1:6 or 1:7 - someone here will know.
Anecdotally, I know the Labour candidate very well (she's my boss). She's fighting it as though it was a marginal, which I don't think Labour did last time. What that does to the overall picture in the seat, I'm not sure.
Where rightwingers get the idea that some charities are job clubs for the Labour Party I have no idea.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
Derby North looking positive, UKIP doing well in the big Labour Council estates, plenty of affluent Liberals to go for, plus a widely disliked MP and hard-left takeover of the council leadership.
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP? Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP? Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
i had the pleasure of spending 18 months living on RAF Mount Pleasant, i think you over state it's strength. There are actually about 1,200 military personal on the islands, of these around 150 are actually combat ready. The quality of these combat forces is variable, depends who is on rotation. If it's the Gurkha rifles or 2 Para then they'll make a good fight of it. Other less so.
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
Correct about the submarines. I suspect wrong about the Typhoons since the point of the MoD announcement is to prepare the way for more to go if intelligence says they might be needed. Even 4 Typhoons and their missiles can do a lot of damage to any attacking force. The simple fact is an attack on the Falklands would be a blatant act of war. It would cripple Argentina.
Which is why it is all sound and fury, signifying nothing. BTW, is a combat personnel ratio of under 10% typical of to-day's RAF? I think that in the Army it's about 1:6 or 1:7 - someone here will know.
I agree there is zero prospect of an invasion happening.
I pretty much discount the RAF ground personal as a combat force, I'm only counting the re-enforced infantry company at MPA and whatever smattering of special forces happen to be there for training.
One of the two pilots of the Germanwings plane that crashed in the French Alps was locked out of the cockpit, according to reports. Early findings from the cockpit voice recorder suggest the pilot made desperate efforts to get back in, sources close to the investigation say.
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
Isn't keeping the cockpit door locked intended as a safety measure to prevent hijackers getting in?
OTOH, satisfaction with the NHS runs at 65%, and satisfaction with A & E has improved.
It's a typical BBC left-wing spin on the figures. The NHS is PERFORMING a lot better than the 1990s, however the DECLINE in the performance (first differential) is the worst since the 1990s.
Graphs also show the increase in consultants and reduction in managers (other staffing remaining relatively steady) and that until this year there was a £400 - £500 million surplus in NHS funding.
No doubt if the NHS was still improving the BBC would be reporting that the rate of improvement was slowing down.
Only a fool cannot see a decline in clinical performance and finances of Hospitals since 2010
What a pity Labour left a deficit so big then. Try reading Labours 2010 manifesto which clearly alleged that NHS spending levels were now so adequate that we could now embark on a £20 billion efficiency drive. For the terminally thick, this means that instead of increasing spending by £20 billion the labour govt if re-elected would make saving of £20 billion from within the NHS budget to cover for the increased activity.
Now you complain about this govt doing exactly what labour promised. Indeed they are doing more since NHS spending has increased in line with inflation.
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP? Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP? Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
I don't know what's funnier.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder. Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
OTOH, satisfaction with the NHS runs at 65%, and satisfaction with A & E has improved.
It's a typical BBC left-wing spin on the figures. The NHS is PERFORMING a lot better than the 1990s, however the DECLINE in the performance (first differential) is the worst since the 1990s.
Graphs also show the increase in consultants and reduction in managers (other staffing remaining relatively steady) and that until this year there was a £400 - £500 million surplus in NHS funding.
No doubt if the NHS was still improving the BBC would be reporting that the rate of improvement was slowing down.
Only a fool cannot see a decline in clinical performance and finances of Hospitals since 2010
I didn't say there wasn't a decline - I was pointing out that the BBC are using the decline as 'taking the NHS back to the 1990s i.e the decline then' when the overall performance today is still much better. The King's fund itself says that "There is a risk" of worsening customer servicing - not that this is actually taking place at any significant level.
Only a fool can't spot the difference between x and dx/dt.
One of the two pilots of the Germanwings plane that crashed in the French Alps was locked out of the cockpit, according to reports. Early findings from the cockpit voice recorder suggest the pilot made desperate efforts to get back in, sources close to the investigation say.
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
Isn't keeping the cockpit door locked intended as a safety measure to prevent hijackers getting in?
A quite possible scenario is that the co-pilot goes for a pee, and whilst out of the cockpit, the central cockpit window fails....
OTOH, satisfaction with the NHS runs at 65%, and satisfaction with A & E has improved.
It's a typical BBC left-wing spin on the figures. The NHS is PERFORMING a lot better than the 1990s, however the DECLINE in the performance (first differential) is the worst since the 1990s.
Graphs also show the increase in consultants and reduction in managers (other staffing remaining relatively steady) and that until this year there was a £400 - £500 million surplus in NHS funding.
No doubt if the NHS was still improving the BBC would be reporting that the rate of improvement was slowing down.
Only a fool cannot see a decline in clinical performance and finances of Hospitals since 2010
What a pity Labour left a deficit so big then. Try reading Labours 2010 manifesto which clearly alleged that NHS spending levels were now so adequate that we could now embark on a £20 billion efficiency drive. For the terminally thick, this means that instead of increasing spending by £20 billion the labour govt if re-elected would make saving of £20 billion from within the NHS budget to cover for the increased activity.
Now you complain about this govt doing exactly what labour promised. Indeed they are doing more since NHS spending has increased in line with inflation.
Almost all hospitals are technically bust or millions in the red. And if I were Chancellor I'd want to know why the hell any of them weren't.
Judging by the leafleting effort here in Morley the local Tories think Morley & Outwood is not out of reach. I have it on good authority that they think Wakefield is far from a gimme for Labour too.
@paulwaugh: Bercow has granted 3 Urgent Questions on undercover cops, blood products + change to business. Allows his allies more time to circle wagons?
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP? Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP? Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
I don't know what's funnier.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder. Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
This might be wasted on you, but I don't think using Northern Ireland style sectarian language like that is helpful.
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
I'd also heard murmurings about Northfield from those in the know.
They tell me another seat to look at is Erdington. Not going to change this time, but the trends could be interesting.
The 2014 local election results in the 4 wards making up Northfield parliamentary constituency were rather good for the Conservatives , comparing with 2012 it looks like UKIP hit Labour disproportionately so the key would be if in a GE those votes went back to Labour . Certainly Northfield looks a better prospect for a Conservative gain than some of the other seats mentioned .
Judging by the leafleting effort here in Morley the local Tories think Morley & Outwood is not out of reach. I have it on good authority that they think Wakefield is far from a gimme for Labour too.
Anecdote is no substitute for hard data. What "good authority"?
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
Trust in the good sense of the British people.
Vote with your heart
Suggest using a pencil to put cross on the paper would be less painful and messy :-D
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
Trust in the good sense of the British people.
Vote with your heart
Suggest using a pencil to put your cross on the paper, less painful :-)
2nd attempt to add comment, if first time turns up!
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
The ones possible are Itchen, Halifax and Dumfries/Galloway.
They are all odds against mind and any seat loss is probably 6-4 right now.
I reckon Respect has a chance in Halifax so potentially Con could come through the middle.
There ain't too many more, I've looked and would be backing the Tories if there were.
Perhaps Easteross and or Innocent Abroad could enlighten us.
I've done my best, John, as have others. The reason I can't help you more is that I expect there to be a substantial swing to the Tories in the last fortnight of the campaign, but the exact nature of that swing is a black box as of to-day. Seats will be won and lost because of third-party intervention (not exactly a rash prediction ) but this far out naming names is pretty well random. Who would've expected the Tories to take Winchester last time?
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
Bootle
Are the SNP standing there ?
They might cause a bit of mischief if the SNP stood in Corby....
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
The ones possible are Itchen, Halifax and Dumfries/Galloway.
They are all odds against mind and any seat loss is probably 6-4 right now.
Birmingham Northfield is still my ultimate fantasy. I got on at 12/1.
Tories won the locals last year with a stable vote share, Labour leeched a mass of voters to UKIP and they have a good hardworking candidate. It's also a 40:40 target.
I think it could be under the radar, and close.
Interesting. I grew up there (our MP was at one time a Cadbury, I seem to recall). Used to be a marginal. My parents are still there - I will be checking at weekend to see how they see things.
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
The ones possible are Itchen, Halifax and Dumfries/Galloway.
They are all odds against mind and any seat loss is probably 6-4 right now.
I reckon Respect has a chance in Halifax so potentially Con could come through the middle.
There ain't too many more, I've looked and would be backing the Tories if there were.
Perhaps Easteross and or Innocent Abroad could enlighten us.
I've done my best, John, as have others. The reason I can't help you more is that I expect there to be a substantial swing to the Tories in the last fortnight of the campaign, but the exact nature of that swing is a black box as of to-day. Seats will be won and lost because of third-party intervention (not exactly a rash prediction ) but this far out naming names is pretty well random. Who would've expected the Tories to take Winchester last time?
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
Trust in the good sense of the British people.
Vote with your heart
Suggest using a pencil to put your cross on the paper, less painful :-)
2nd attempt to add comment, if first time turns up!
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
The ones possible are Itchen, Halifax and Dumfries/Galloway.
They are all odds against mind and any seat loss is probably 6-4 right now.
Birmingham Northfield is still my ultimate fantasy. I got on at 12/1.
Tories won the locals last year with a stable vote share, Labour leeched a mass of voters to UKIP and they have a good hardworking candidate. It's also a 40:40 target.
I think it could be under the radar, and close.
Interesting. Still available at 9/1.
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP? Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP? Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
I don't know what's funnier.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder. Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
This might be wasted on you, but I don't think using Northern Ireland style sectarian language like that is helpful.
It's wasted on him. What you have to remember is the level of hatred Scots - especially Catholics - have for the English. Any Scottish thread here rapidly descends to personal abuse: unfortunately, OGH has to run them now and again, and then others, like this one, get hijacked.
Winners announced in Electoral Gurning contest May 2015. Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago It's the Yellow Cross Code! (it's all in the lips apparently)
The Speaker has granted 3 Urgent Questions this morning, looks like he is trying to delay the vote to buy his Labour and UKIP allies some time to try and protect him.
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
This reminds me that by the end of the 1974-79 Parliament the entire SNP Parliamentary Group (allegedly) were alcoholics. Except for the chap from the Western Isles, who was TT.
The idea of Gordon Wilson having more than a bi-annual glass of dry sherry is certainly novel.
One of the two pilots of the Germanwings plane that crashed in the French Alps was locked out of the cockpit, according to reports. Early findings from the cockpit voice recorder suggest the pilot made desperate efforts to get back in, sources close to the investigation say.
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
"According to reports." It has not been confirmed yet.
As for terrorism: I doubt it. *If* a terrorist took over the plane on a suicide mission, then he would do it either to crash it into the ground, or into a structure. The courses did not deviate for the latter, and the former would have been done as soon as possible - the longer the plane remained in the air, the more chance passengers and crew could have to derail the plans. They would just have taken over the plane and pointed the nose to the ground.
Even hijacking doesn't necessarily make sense.
A possible, if unlikely scenario: pilot is out of the cockpit, leaving copilot alone. There is an explosive decompression, and the pressure differential (either vacuum or ?600 MPH? rushing air) made the door impossible to open.
However, if that was the case I would doubt they would be able to hear the banging on the door in the CVR tape, which is allegedly the case. I also don't know if the door is inward opening, outward opening, or both.
I see from Twitter that last night a UKIP councillor Ron Hurrell resigned from the party in Castle Point blaming local party and Farage. That should do no harm to the Tory campaign.
Fife UA, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie - Labour died - 8 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, 2 x Ind
Moray UA, Buckie - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, SNP, Ind
Western Isles UA - Beinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath - Labour resigned - 2 candidates: SNP, Ind
West Lothian UA, Armadale & Blackridge - SNP disqualified for non-attendance - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, Ind
I like to consider myself an intelligent person with more than a healthy interest in politics and electoral voting systems, but even I get flummoxed trying to work out the swings in Scottish council elections.
One of the two pilots of the Germanwings plane that crashed in the French Alps was locked out of the cockpit, according to reports. Early findings from the cockpit voice recorder suggest the pilot made desperate efforts to get back in, sources close to the investigation say.
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
Isn't keeping the cockpit door locked intended as a safety measure to prevent hijackers getting in?
Yup. Security is tough. Often a security measure intended to make you safer actually puts you in greater danger, for example having a gun in your home or a vast, secretive digital surveillance system in your democracy.
Fife UA, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie - Labour died - 8 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, 2 x Ind
Moray UA, Buckie - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, SNP, Ind
Western Isles UA - Beinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath - Labour resigned - 2 candidates: SNP, Ind
West Lothian UA, Armadale & Blackridge - SNP disqualified for non-attendance - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, Ind
I like to consider myself an intelligent person with more than a healthy interest in politics and electoral voting systems, but even I get flummoxed trying to work out the swings in Scottish council elections.
They always seem to like their independents in By-Elections. Labour not bothering with Western Isles I see.
@jonwalker121: Les Jones, former leader of Dudley Council, selected as Conservative candidate for Dudley North, replacing Afzal Amin - safe pair of hands
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
The ones possible are Itchen, Halifax and Dumfries/Galloway.
They are all odds against mind and any seat loss is probably 6-4 right now.
I reckon Respect has a chance in Halifax so potentially Con could come through the middle.
There ain't too many more, I've looked and would be backing the Tories if there were.
Perhaps Easteross and or Innocent Abroad could enlighten us.
I've done my best, John, as have others. The reason I can't help you more is that I expect there to be a substantial swing to the Tories in the last fortnight of the campaign, but the exact nature of that swing is a black box as of to-day. Seats will be won and lost because of third-party intervention (not exactly a rash prediction ) but this far out naming names is pretty well random. Who would've expected the Tories to take Winchester last time?
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP? Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP? Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
I don't know what's funnier.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder. Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
This might be wasted on you, but I don't think using Northern Ireland style sectarian language like that is helpful.
It's wasted on him. What you have to remember is the level of hatred Scots - especially Catholics - have for the English. Any Scottish thread here rapidly descends to personal abuse: unfortunately, OGH has to run them now and again, and then others, like this one, get hijacked.
Yet I'm a Rangers supporting atheist and as far as I know have no catholic heritage.
Look up the word Loyalist. It is quite appropriate to refer to you Nationalists.
@afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne
Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP? Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP? Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
I don't know what's funnier.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder. Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
This might be wasted on you, but I don't think using Northern Ireland style sectarian language like that is helpful.
You're the bloke that likes 'hilarious' terms such as Yestapo and WaffenSSNP, ain't you?
I have this niggling suspicion that the Tories will fare either considerably better or considerably worse than the "experts" and indeed the betting markets are suggesting. Numerically, I see them winning either >300 seats as currently predicted by JackW or <275 seats as suggested by OGH ...... the problem is I can't decide which, not helped by the fact that the head says one thing, the heart says another!
Similar in a way to the number of seats won by the LibDems ...... will it be <20 or >30 or maybe somewhere in between?
I don't understand why more PBers don't see Labour ending up with fewer MPs than in 2010 as a serious possibility. If the SNP does as well as expected, Labour in England and Wales starts from around 210-220 seats. Each seat Labour loses to the Tories matches one going the other way.
Which seats are Labour going to lose to the Tories?
The ones possible are Itchen, Halifax and Dumfries/Galloway.
They are all odds against mind and any seat loss is probably 6-4 right now.
I reckon Respect has a chance in Halifax so potentially Con could come through the middle.
There ain't too many more, I've looked and would be backing the Tories if there were.
Perhaps Easteross and or Innocent Abroad could enlighten us.
As PfP says DYOR. Even in 1992 the Tories took Aberdeen South from Labour from nowhere. There are at least a dozen Labour seats where local factors could swing them over to the blue side.
Peter the Punter will be pleased with another cross dresser and a muslim one at that. Ukip diversity on show if nothing else from a covered up @MikeK
Titter ....
Very funny and a good laugh. But of course I don't wear fancy dress, unlike you, my friend, wearing a kilt and funny socks. So put that in your sporran.
I notice that the latest attempt at producing a Scotland anti-SNP tactical voting wheel has collapsed as the producer of the latest one was recommending voting Conservative in Dumfries and Galloway and Labour (as the incumbents) have very much taken the hump at that.
Guess which party and which constituency the person who produced and promoted the wheel is an activist for.
Sun Politics: A new Falklands invasion by Argentina is “a live threat”, says the Defence Secretary.
Is Argentina planning such an attack once Parliament has been dissolved, i.e. when the UK is at its most impotent in terms of being in a position to respond in any meaningful way? Not that we would be in any position to mount a task force on anything like the scale that was put in place by the Thatcher Government in 1982. Instead passive resistance would presumably be the order of the day, coupled with unworkable sanctions. Lots of huffing and puffing but probably game over to all intents and purposes.
And what would be the implications for the imminent General Election?
We have RAF Mount Pleasant there now, with a wing of Typhoons based there and a couple of thousand men including substantial anti-aircraft assets. This means a) it would be a lot harder to take than before, and b) attacking a British base would probably be considered an act of war.
A "wing" of Typhoons? surely not even a full squadron?
I think this is more noise than substance but if it did occur there would be no "probably" (be considered an act of war) about it.
doesn't change the fact that we could not take the Islands back without air cover though.
Comments
Ross Hawkins@rosschawkins·18 secs18 seconds ago
What a coincidence. Just as we're about to show Boris' bike at home in D St on @BBCBreakfast a big van blocks out shot
The last news story was from 3 months ago - and under "Future events" All I get is
"Sorry, we haven't got any upcoming events"
Someone needs to tell Gower conservatives there's an election in a few weeks. If they can't get a volunteer to spend an hour updating the website, then i'm guessing they're not too hot on the canvassing malarkey either.
so50 million less for programming=more crap and repeats and a more discontented audience.. and the demise of the license fee... bring it on.
They are going very strong on the fact that the Tories announced their VAT decision to the whole House of Commons rather than telling the select committee yesterday.
Apparently it's outrageous that a big decision should be held back for political advantage
I am on India to win at 4.0 and Rohit top scorer at 4.0
I reckon unless the latter wins the former will lose (not hopeful)
Its been a poor betting week so far for me too.
Only NZ decent winner for me.
IMHO, whilst polls represent a mere snapshot, a moving average can reveal a trend, particularly if you stick to a single pollster.
The chart below represents a longer 20-poll average and points towards a distinct move away from UKIP and Green, in favour of Labour, LibDem, and Tory.
The LibDem upswing is less obvious on this chart, but it does exist. It is also not easy to spot, but the Tories have been ahead of labour for the last 10 data points with this average. Click to enlarge...
I'm not sure what you call a wing of Typhoons, but there are only 4 of them. On any given day, perhaps 3 are ready for use.
The security of the islands is really guaranteed by the argentine fear of a submarine sinking their invasion fleet. The Argentine navy still carries the scars of '82
This is the third day in a row that the SNP margin over LAB (In Scotland) has been less than 10 (6,2,7) - this has been reflected in increased LAB 2010 VI retention. Has Salmond's mouthing off put off some Labour deserters?
The LD VI 2010 retention is now greater than their losses to Labour (Feb retention 27.9, March ave td 28.4: Loss to LAB: Feb ave 28.9, March ave td 28.1) but losses to the Cons have increased. (Feb ave 14.2, March ave td 15.7)
Con 2010 VI loss to UKIP at 15.4 ave March td - down from Feb ave of 17.5.
OUTRAGE as Argentina tells BRITAIN to slash its armed forces and 'fix the NHS'
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/566399/Falklands-Falkland-Islands-Argentina-defence-threat-military-UK-Britain-Michael-Fallon
But.... their Facebook place is where they are posting now. Gower Cons seem to have an active Facebook group - but its a closed group....
Interesting. Still available at 9/1.
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
One of the two pilots of the Germanwings plane that crashed in the French Alps was locked out of the cockpit, according to reports.
Early findings from the cockpit voice recorder suggest the pilot made desperate efforts to get back in, sources close to the investigation say.
Not surprising that this is looking more like a terrorist attack or the work of a pilot turned nutter. I think the former reason will prevail.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/e6944f91zs/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-250315.pdf has 57 -> 31 SNP/PC identifiers.
'British more anti-EU now than last two decades,' survey shows
There is growing discontent over the EU's powers but the NHS has British people's vote of approval
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11495161/British-more-anti-EU-now-than-last-two-decades-survey-shows.html
They tell me another seat to look at is Erdington. Not going to change this time, but the trends could be interesting.
Not much point to 'secret terrorism'.....
In the hunt for surprises, I think Labour in Cambridge is a value bet. If you had to pick one seat in the whole of Britain where the LibDems were red, that would be it. And Julian Huppert, though well respected, has not been one of the coalition's awkward squad, as red Liberals would normally like. [Caution: I have no personal knowledge of how it's going at all.] Anecdotally, I know the Labour candidate very well (she's my boss). She's fighting it as though it was a marginal, which I don't think Labour did last time. What that does to the overall picture in the seat, I'm not sure.
Another colleague lives in Clegg's patch. She's had 3 LibDem leaflets and one Labour leaflet, but nothing for a week from anyone. By contrast, I also know someone in South Thanet - she says voters are just rolling their eyes and hunkering down under a tidal wave of leaflets from everyone.
The BBC are idiots... they just flushed 50 million smackers down the toilet.
Certainly Northfield looks a better prospect for a Conservative gain than some of the other seats mentioned .
The deplorable incident need not have resulted in 'sacking' anyway. It has been used as an excuse not to renew the contract. Verbal tirades and scuffles happen in life and in business and especially in entertainment. At least the poor producer did not end up full of drugs in the bottom of a swimming pool. Some of the most popular guests on TG are former rock stars with a history of shocking behaviour - the audience love and forgive them. The BBC make money out of them.
As for changing channels - a new show may work. My thoughts are they need to try to evolve it as best they can. If I were May and Hammond however I would want as much of a share and say in it as Clarkson.
If they had bought, say 21%, they would have stopped anyone else acquiring it, but still been able to pretend that it was an arms-length relationship (Clarkson clearly being a loose cannon). The brand doesn't have much sustainable value without the troika.
So basically they paid Clarkson a bunch of money and set him free. (And presumably, if Clarkson refused to renew the contract when it expires he was prevented from going to someone else...but now the BBC has decided not to renew it, well...)
Even 4 Typhoons and their missiles can do a lot of damage to any attacking force. The simple fact is an attack on the Falklands would be a blatant act of war. It would cripple Argentina.
That said, one of the world's most advanced destroyers, an astute class hunter-killer submarine, a few of the world's most advanced fighter jets and even a couple of hundred well-trained infrantry is a good deterrent to thinking about it.
UKIP on 14 in today's Scotland numbers. SNP-UKIP???
How does promising to prop up English Labour play with the Tory-ish anti-labour element of the SNP?
Derby North looking positive, UKIP doing well in the big Labour Council estates, plenty of affluent Liberals to go for, plus a widely disliked MP and hard-left takeover of the council leadership.
Sturgeon: Yes
SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP?
Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership
The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
I pretty much discount the RAF ground personal as a combat force, I'm only counting the re-enforced infantry company at MPA and whatever smattering of special forces happen to be there for training.
The one quoting Nicola Sturgeon. From January.
Hahaha. The straws that Loyalists grasp.
Try reading Labours 2010 manifesto which clearly alleged that NHS spending levels were now so adequate that we could now embark on a £20 billion efficiency drive. For the terminally thick, this means that instead of increasing spending by £20 billion the labour govt if re-elected would make saving of £20 billion from within the NHS budget to cover for the increased activity.
Now you complain about this govt doing exactly what labour promised. Indeed they are doing more since NHS spending has increased in line with inflation.
Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder.
Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
Only a fool can't spot the difference between x and dx/dt.
Con Voters 2010: 434
Con Voters 2015: 419
Con Vote Compare: 96.5% of 2010 (36.97%) = 35.7%
Lab Voters 2010: 414
Lab Voters 2015: 460
Lab Vote Compare: 111.1% of 2010 (29.7%) = 33.0%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/high-peak/
Tories to take Eastbourne
Big SNP -> UKIP swing in Scotland
Labour with "no chance" in High Peak.
Ho hum
@paulwaugh: Bercow has granted 3 Urgent Questions on undercover cops, blood products + change to business. Allows his allies more time to circle wagons?
Peter the Punter will be pleased with another cross dresser and a muslim one at that. Ukip diversity on show if nothing else from a covered up @MikeK
Titter ....
Anecdote is no substitute for hard data. What "good authority"?
2nd attempt to add comment, if first time turns up!
Still available at 9/1
2nd attempt to add comment, if first time turns up!
I grew up in Northfield. It used to be a marginal then (and had a Cadbury as MP at one time I seem to recall). My parents are still there, so I will be DYOR at weekend.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/581025157671616512
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 2m2 minutes ago
It's the Yellow Cross Code! (it's all in the lips apparently)
As for terrorism: I doubt it. *If* a terrorist took over the plane on a suicide mission, then he would do it either to crash it into the ground, or into a structure. The courses did not deviate for the latter, and the former would have been done as soon as possible - the longer the plane remained in the air, the more chance passengers and crew could have to derail the plans. They would just have taken over the plane and pointed the nose to the ground.
Even hijacking doesn't necessarily make sense.
A possible, if unlikely scenario: pilot is out of the cockpit, leaving copilot alone. There is an explosive decompression, and the pressure differential (either vacuum or ?600 MPH? rushing air) made the door impossible to open.
However, if that was the case I would doubt they would be able to hear the banging on the door in the CVR tape, which is allegedly the case. I also don't know if the door is inward opening, outward opening, or both.
Fife UA, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie - Labour died - 8 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, 2 x Ind
Moray UA, Buckie - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, SNP, Ind
Western Isles UA - Beinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath - Labour resigned - 2 candidates: SNP, Ind
West Lothian UA, Armadale & Blackridge - SNP disqualified for non-attendance - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green, Ind
Look up the word Loyalist. It is quite appropriate to refer to you Nationalists.
Guess which party and which constituency the person who produced and promoted the wheel is an activist for.
I think this is more noise than substance but if it did occur there would be no "probably" (be considered an act of war) about it.
doesn't change the fact that we could not take the Islands back without air cover though.