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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmon

Those of us who are old enough remember the great Labour Sheffield rally before the 1992 General Election which came over in the media as a celebration of the victory that the party presumed was going to happen the following Thursday.
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And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.
I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.
There are greater forces at work.
(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?
SNP are the new Militant Tendancy worming their way into Labour it seems.
That said, if she had the army and people on her side she could regain it pretty sharpish.
26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds
A man who has grown the SNP from a Fringe Party to a natural party of government.
A man who has taken the desire of the Scottish public for full Independence from around 15% when he first became leader to solidly 48% today.
A man who in the two year Indyref campaign grew the Yes vote from around 25% to 45%.
A man who ran a minority government for four years in the teeth of a hostile Labour Party who only had ONE seat less than the SNP but never dared to try and vote him down.
A man who delivered the utterly unthinkable and won a majority in an AMS D'Hondt PR electoral system - a system specifically designed and chosen so he could NEVER win a majority.
When Salmond does an interview on The Andrew Marr show he knows exactly what he will say. He knows exactly how the London press corps will cover it. He knows exactly how it will play out back home. This is a man who regularly does the unthinkable not because it is impossible but because his opponents haven't ever considered he could.
If you think the answer to the SNP problem is that Salmond will gaffe, the electorate will reject them and Scotland will go back in its box.... you've been asking the wrong question.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1YndxUDVSWjI0d1k/view?usp=sharing
Comedy Gold.
If the only way they can legislate is with SNP help, they're done for. Similarly, if Labour rely on Tory help to legislate over Scotland, the same is on the cards there.
The debate format is a terrible one for Labour. Farage and Sturgeon present, and everything potentially turning into England/Wales v Scotland.
I heard a snippet over the weekend of Salmond saying he had checked his top pocket and as far as he could see Ed wasn't there. He didn't seem to regard it as much of a loss but the line that if you want a real left wing government you should vote SNP is consistent with SNP tactics to date and an effective line for the SNP to take in Scotland. Sturgeon has quipped before being more left wing than Labour was so easy even John Swinney (her Finance Minister) could manage it.
The Tory poster was one of the more effective of recent times. This can hurt Labour in England. I got a Tory e-mail about it over the weekend as well. It is a point that they are pushing hard and it plays into the Ed is weak meme very effectively. Since the SNP priority is to destroy SLAB Labour will get hit from both ends with this. There is a mutuality of interest between the SNP and the Tories that will keep this running.
The chancellor sets the budget. If a 20% cut to the DWP budget is then implemented by the minister, was that idealogical or not?
@Claire_Phipps: The @guardian #election2015 live blog starts today, right now – come and read our essential morning briefing http://t.co/lg80CTT4LC
This bit is very useful
Diary
Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy are speaking in Clydebank at 9am. The Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Severin Carrell, will be there: keep an eye on his tweets @severincarrell.
At 10.30am, home secretary Theresa May will make a speech on tackling extremism.
Nigel Farage, along with Ukip deputy leader Paul Nuttall and economics spokesman Patrick O’Flynn, will be lifting the lid on the party’s economy policy in Heywood and Middleton at 11.15am.
Separately, a Ukip disciplinary hearing is due to take place into Janice Atkinson, an MEP and the party’s candidate in Folkestone & Hythe, suspended over allegations that a member of her staff attempted to obtain an inflated receipt to claim EU expenses.
From 2.30 to 4.30 Sky News hosts its “ask the chancellors” debate. George Osborne is first up, followed by Ed Balls, each questioned separately for 30 minutes followed by 15 minutes of questions via Facebook.
At 3.30pm, David Cameron will make a statement on the EU summit.
At 4pm, Lord Ashcroft will tweet the results of his latest national poll.
At 4.15pm, the IFS and OBR are up before the Treasury select committee to be quizzed on the budget. Keep an eye on our business live blog for more on this one.
Just think of the damage Salmond would do to Miliwonk or Cameron at a PMQs. Ratings would go through the roof.
Many voters will like the idea of a government that both red and blue activists hate.
And my point is that nothing in the Daily Hate/Mike presentation reflects the reality of Salmond's interview. It reflects a combination of the Mail's prejudices and Mike's fears that the Lib/Dems are about to lose all their seats!
If you believe anything Salmond says or does is "unwitting", you haven't been paying attention.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3006958/Conservatives-enjoy-biggest-poll-lead-2010-Party-enjoys-three-point-advantage-36-cent-wake-budget.html
Is the budget starting to influence the numbers? I think if they get 36% on the day then likely Dave stays in No.10.
The only thought I expect is going through his head, all day, is "Help".
Ah yes FPP. What a dreadful system. Which parties support it again? Wasn't Salmond lucky that they didn't have PR in the Scottish Parly when he swept to an overall majority in 2015.
My guess for a while is that the SNP will have about 30 gains getting them up to about 36. Quite a number of these are from the Lib Dems (Kincardine, Inverness, Argyll, NE Fife and probably a couple of others) so the damage to Labour is more like the mid 20s than some of the frothier claims. Trying to argue this "disappointing" result was a consequence of hubris is an advocacy task I would not wish on my worst enemy.
Never is a strong word but Scottish politics will not be the same for a very long time.
It would be refreshing if just once a pollster tweeted: "New poll coming out at 4pm. Don't expect too much in the way of movement."
I thought Salmond looked frightening yesterday. I did not think Kinnock looked frightening on 1 4 92, I thought he looked a twat. Big difference. And I also strongly disagree that Sheffield actually swung it, I think the reality was always that Neil Kinnock Would Never Be Prime Minister. The thesis of this post is like a crime wave in a multi storey car park - wrong on so many different levels.
I expect Soubry's performance will have rattled the competition in Broxtowe , mind.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.
The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11488848/Lib-Dems-throw-weak-MPs-to-the-wolves.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
Any polls today from named BPC pollsters?
The Yougov Poll for the Sunday Times included Sturgeon in the leadership approval question
Sturgeon +7
Cameron -5
Milliband -39
Clegg -47
Clearly the hard graft she is putting in with the London media is paying off. While Salmond plays the bogeyman (a role he plays very well) she plays Good Cop and the public take a shine to her.
Actually, I'm not sure how well it will it play in Lancashire or Yorkshire either. There is only one party talking about a Northern Powerhouse that extends beyond the Central Belt.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England
It's entirely by design.
Interesting.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32006268
Great post. Salmond and Sturgeon have been the most successful double act bar none. They still are. Salmond will not give a stuff about the Daily Hate or Mike for that matter. His aim will be to ensure that the SNP are front and centre of this campaign and it is working.
Only a fool would vote Labour in England knowing that with their collapse in Scotland the Labour Party, the English, would be dictated to by the minority and far leftish SNP. Its probably worth separating out the SNP from Scotland here.
But equally will this boasting and plain divisiveness help the SNP in Scotland?
How can the Tories finesse this to their advantage north and south of the border?
The point I would make is that even with a significant number of seats in Scotland then Labour are always going to be running scared.
The Sunday Post? Not any more.
The Daylate Record? Not any more.
The Super Soaraway Scottish Sun? Possibly?
Even if you mean in regional concentration, then both the P&J and Courier are very popular still (ridiculously so in the current market).
To lose one referendum is unfortunate, to lose a second could be fatal for the SNP.
Far better to work constructively for a workable devo-max, which appears to be what Scots actually want. I think that Sturgeon will find that easier to negotiate with the Conservatives.
The precedent has already been set. And in the UK, with an unwritten constitution, precedent is everything.